DocBauer

I fully appreciate your concern and pessimism. It makes sense. But I'm going to fight your concern, even if it involves a tinge of hope. :) Lewis is young and a tremdous athlete. He was everything hoped for in 2022 at St Paul and in his short time with the Twins, showing zero loss of any ability. In fact, he was as fast and athletic as he was pre-injury. Now, I don't know that he rushed back, but maybe. I don't know that his initial injury wasn't performed properly, but maybe. His injury last year just looked like a freaky way of landing that caused his 2nd tear. Modern medicine is pretty crazy good in regard to injuries such as this. The new grafting techniques used for TJ and knees, where a supporting mesh is added, look very promising. It's important to note Lewis' second injury was only a partial tear. And again, he's young, athletic, and also a very dedicated worker. I do believe the Twins will be cautious with him and not rush him. His knee needs to be sound, of course. And we are all hoping for that. And IF he loses half a step, he goes from elite to very good. Fortunately, we aren't talking about a running back, wide receiver, etc, playing football. He just needs to be structurally sound. I'm betting he will be. But again, I think the Twins will be cautious. If it takes until July, or even August, so be it. But I'm betting on him.

If you can place a special bat in the DH spot and leave him there daily, maybe he can play 1B once in a while or another spot, I'm OK with having that spot primarily filled by that one guy. Think Cruz for reference. And no question the Twins need to add another bat somewhere. But there's another way to look at the DH spot. ANY sort of "normal" health, and maybe a little bit of luck, the Twins lineup should feature some variation ofLarnach, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff, RH bat TBD, Maeda, Polanco, Arraez, catcher, and SS. That's, potentially, a pretty good 1-7 with at least a decent bottom 2 of catcher and SS. There is room to just roll one of those bats through the DH spot for a half day off for someone, and keep your best players engaged daily. Further, if you have a unique bat like Arraez taking up the DH spot on a regular basis...example, not saying he doesn't ever play in the field...there's nothing wrong with having a bat that sets the table, advances runners, gets clutch hits, but isn't a power plant. I think the Twins prefer that approach, and it's always made sense to me. Have the best lineup you can, keep everyone sharp by playing, and roll through the DH. I, personally, only like a fixture at DH if he's pretty special. I might be forgetting someone, but the best options remaining to add a potentially really solid bat are Martinez, Gallo, Myers, and Mancini. Myers remains my #1 target as he can play a solid OF, boosting his roster flexibility. I like Mancini quite a bit for his bat and 1B ability. I doubt he plays the OF any better than Garlick at this point, but he still can a little, and I think is a better overall producer than Garlick. Can Martinez play the OF at all any longer? 36 games in 2021 and ZERO in 2022. I still like his bat! But do we/the Twins want a maybe DH only? Gallo fits the idea of playing the OF, but bats LH, and so much swing and miss to go with his power. Don't we have enough young LH OF talent to play instead? And far less expensive, along with upside? I've got Myers #1 on my list with Mancini #2. Martinez makes sense if he can play OF AT ALL, and if you are worried about Kirilloff coming back. Then you start to think a little more about Arraez at 1B full time and open up DH more for that one guy.

I'm not in love with Swanson. But I don't hate him either. He's not Correa, but he's not bad either. Three years above 100 OPS+, though one was a short term 2016, and another year at 99 OPS+. Career 95 OPS+ for a SS is pretty acceptable, if not good. At 28yo, I wouldn't expect any big dip in performance for 4-5yrs. It feels like MLBTR have been a little low from the early projections I read. I'd snap up Swanson for 6 and $120 without worry. He solidifies SS for the Twins as a "nice" all around option...who may have just hit his ceiling... and I can move Lewis to 2B/OF and Lee to 3B or other easily. But I'm thinking the way the market is going, he might end up at $150M for 6 or 7yrs. Do we still like him then?

As of today, right now, this is probably right. What I think should be done going forward? 1} Get that RH bat we need so much. IMO, I will repeat Wil Myers makes the most sense. Solid bat with some power, and can play solid defense. I like him better than Martinez, who is pretty much locked in to DH only. 2} NO to Pagan in the pen. And I'd say no to Megill right now too. We just have to have at least one long/middle innings arm to bridge the gap to the end of the pen, if not two. Good chance that can be Winder, Henriquez, Sands, or another rotation piece sliding in to the pen for now. Why not use the $ available to add a quality back end 7-8th inning arm to deepen the pen? I thin k Alcala could make a big difference this year. But why not a SECOND solid FA arm so we don't have to just automatically depend on Alcala being 100% back and ready to go from day one? 3} I DON'T want Swanson as a consellation prize. I think he's a really nice player and looking at his stats, he's really not a 1 year wonder. But from all reports he's no longer 6-7yrs at $150M. Now he's 9-10yrs and a good $200M. Does the FO really like him? Is he a high quality long term option? If unsure, just stop! 4} I wouldn't mind another SS option to make Farmer a super utility player, OR, a good utility player to join Gordon in that role. Celestino should begin the season in St Paul. He's been rushed twice and Gordon is pretty solid in CF for days off here and there. Let Celestino get his act together. 5} Hugely unsure about adding to the rotation if Rodon is out. I really, really like and want Rodon. I wanted him last year. But $200M and 7yrs? I just don't know that it's going to happen. After that, I'm leaning toward trusting in better health with the arms we have and provide opportunities for our young depth as they arise. But I'm on open on the rotation add. Unfortunately, I don't know that there's anyone I like or think might make any kind of difference...other than Rodon...except maybe Eovaldi. IF he's healthy. But is he really better than the arms we already have? I guess I'm a bit of an optimist. I don't think this team is ready for a WS challenge. But if we can just have normal health this year, I like the rotation arms and love the potential of our young hitters, as ell as a rebound for Polanco. I'm OK with adding through FA if the deals seem smart. But I don't want to add just to add. And I don't want to sell the farm after moving some quality young talent last year if I can help it.

I almost agree 100%...just not all the way there. As I've stated in other posts, the 10yrs and $285M offer to Correa, if an INITIAL one, with all the opt out control, was a fine offer. If you look at total value and control and most of the signings the past few seasons, it was a logical beginning. HOWEVER, once it became clear that contracts were going to go on a sharp rise this year, the offer should have been a minimum $300M type of deal, probably $315-ish. THAT is what is disconcerting. Did the FO really believe nobody else was "in" on Correa with a better offer until it was too late? Now, I think the Giants just blew the Twins out of the water with their deal, and a deal I wouldn't do. But my issue with the FO is once it became clear we were going over $300M no matter what, time to boldly jump in and play the game, or walk away and look at other options. Can I tell you exactly which other options? No, not without sitting down and taking the time to make a list. But maybe Contreras at catcher for a better bat...while still having a good glove...than Vazquez. Maybe the jump on Bassitt early and get him to help head the rotation. (Not a stud, but a good and proven arm). MAYBE, though I kinda doubt it, a sudden turn to Boegarts for similar $ AAV but not the extra years? I don't believe the FO just sits on their hands and does nothing while waiting for Correa, in this case, or in dealing with Buxton last year. But there is a real sense, IMO, that they are so locked in and focused on a "one big deal" that they do loose sight of the big picture. Last year was a perfect example where we ended up with Bundy, Archer, and Smith when there was a plethora of interesting and solid arms out there that came off the board one by one. I don't hate our FO. I don't think lack of signing someone is necessarily a lack of interest or due diligence, sometimes the numbers are impossible or the player has an absolute preference, etc. But you are either in or not on your big move. And regardless, you should have an idea of needs, budget, and available options. And it just feels to me they wait around too long at times before getting "serious" about turning their attention elsewhere.

1} Unless he's just really up for a new challenge and really wants to stick at SS, he's going to veto a trade to the Twins to stay with his only known team. 2} The Twins sure aren't going to pay $16M for 1yr of a defense first SS with a questionable bat. They MIGHT be willing to pay half of that. But even if SF eats half of his salary, the Twins aren't going to want to give up much for said 1yr of a defense first, questionable bat SS, even if he is a good guy and leader type. 3} Let's just say he agrees, the Giants eat half his deal, and it costs the Twins very little to get him. On that basis, I'm OK with the idea. It allows the Twins to use Farmer in a super utility role that he seems well suited for and deepens the bench and lineup. In fact, if Swanson isn't brought on board...and I'm not sure I want him at this point...I wouldn't mind another SS OR another utility type brought in...with a decent bat...to deepen the bench and lineup. But I don't see this as a likely option.

The system isn't depleted of talent, though it's split between AAA and then A ball. But it's not depleted. And the upcoming draft should/could add some very nice talent. And trades are a good way to augment your team. But as a mid market team, you need to hold on to and develop as much of your talent as you can. Position wise, the system looks pretty good. Things don't look as strong pitching wise...though there have been a few encouraging arms to reach the ML level the past 2yrs...due to injury, poor performance, and possibly by being too focused on position players. But FA SHOULD be part of the equation, even if we're not talking about a $300M type. And there are always good players available that aren't the TOP FA on the market. The last offseason is a perfect example where there were arms way better than Archer and Bundy. But they seemed so focused on the Buxton extension that they just ignored the market. I am not going to get in to a debate about the Twins ownership and spending. While I think it's easy, and maybe accurate, to say they bring in more $ from the Twins than we know/speculate. Even when comparing other mid market organizations, it's still almost impossible to know how things like TV and radio deals affect available $ to spend. And I would have no right to demand a business not make a profit from their team. Conversely, I think there are owners out there who view their sports teams as a "hobby" and could hardly care about profits vs the fun and ego of winning. Now, that doesn't always work year to year. We can see that with WS wins from KC and Atlanta the past few years vs disappointing results for the Dodgers, Mets, etc. But FA HAS to be a part of your approach. Even if you can't ever, or hardly ever, swim in the deep end of the pool, you can still target some very good players that you CAN add to augment what you have and build the very best OVERALL TEAM that you can put together. I don't know that the Twins are adverse to playing in FA, but just waiting for value won't get it done. They need to target the 1 or 2 they really like/want/need and THEN play the waiting game for additional value.

Can I like this a second time?

However, I believe Myers hits RH's better. He's also better defensively and it sure appears to be healthier than Garlick year to year.

I'm probably most upset because as this drug on, I had almost convinced myself the Twins had a real shot to keeping him. Shame on me! I knew he was gone the minute he signed last year. But I don't blame the Twins. Boegarts, Turner, and Correa are very similar players in talent, quality, and production. Correa just happens to be a couple years younger. The 10yrs and $285M the Twins offered is commensurate to what Boegarts and Turner received, and equal or greater AAV. And they even offered Correa full control over the deal to opt out at different times to pursue something different/better if he wanted. So how is the offer to Correa cheap or in no way serious on the Twins part??? I wouldn't doubt that if Boras came back to the Twins and said: "Look, the Giants are in for 10yrs and $300M, will you be willing to bump an extra $15M?" that the FO would jump at it. I mean, even for the Twins, an extra $1.5M per for 10yrs is do-able. But that's not what we're talking here. We're talking $350M!! The Giants can afford to play the years of service game and just eat $15-25M per for the last 4-6yrs as a sunk/lost cost. There's just no way the Twins, or any mid-market team, IMO, can just be willing to eat that kind of yearly dead $. Could the Twins have front loaded the deal more and bumped to...oh, I don't know...maybe $310-$315M? Yes, they could have, though it would have hurt and would have at least slightly affected payroll the first couple of years. But this whole deal isn't about the Twins not going a 6th year and another $25M to a FA pitcher. This was an extra $65M bump over 10years. And way more than what Boegarts and Turner got. It sinks. I would have liked him back for a number of reasons. I think the Twins, if given the chance, would have sweetened the deal a little bit. But the Giants offer and way of staggering it is just not something the Twins could do financially. And only a handful of franchises/markets could do so. I'm not crying cheap or weak on the Twins in this case.

I think the Twins are definitely out on Rodon if Correa signs. Considering "rumors" of 6-7yrs and $180-200M for Rodon, the Twins might be out even without Correa in the fold. The Twins DON'T need to sign some back end SP at this point, thankfully. My "hunch meter" says the FO likes their existing rotation and expect better health with a normal ST, and feel depth is finally here. And if they want to add, a trade is the best option as it won't be someone with a $20-30M per deal, hence why they've passed up other options. So far, as probably expected, bullpen arms are just sitting there. And there might be value in the "patience" mode the FO likes. But I'm interested in Eovaldi if he's sitting there in a couple of weeks. He's not great by any means, and his career numbers reflect that. But when healthy he's flashed. If he comes cheap, I'd be interested in adding him for what he CAN do when healthy and right. But other than cheap and looking for some kind of 1yr or 1+1 deal, I don't think I see a fit. I think the FO looks at the trade route to add, if they add at all.

Narvaez, despite a couple bad years, has a better career quad slash line and more power. His LH bat would be nice to have for balance sake. I would have been happy to have him. But the more I've read, heard, and thought about this I'm very pleased. Vazquez is still an average to slightly better than average bat for a catcher. So while he's still a #8-9 hitter, he's by no means bad at all. But what's way more important is his experience, leadership, defense, and clubhouse presence. Forgetting Correa for a moment, the Twins have $ to spend and need to spend it. And this was a serious need that needed to be addressed and was done so in a solid fashion. But they can't stop now. This team still needs a quality RH bat to be added, even with a possible Correa signing. Even more so if they don't. I understand calls for a SP and RP, and I get that. But when you look at the roster, a RH bat in the OF has been a glaring problem for years now. They need balance and depth and options. The various times of offensive futility in 2022 show that. They should, IMO, jump on someone like Wil Myers immediately for something, hopefully, around $10-12M for 2-3yrs. He fits the need very well. And you can't stop adding while waiting for Correa. Happy as can be with Vazquez. But don't stop adding now FO. You still have $ and need.

Sad isn't it? If the Twins have actually offered a $300M deal to Correa to play ball in a city/organization he wants to be in and it's still not enough for his family and his future generations of family. The numbers we spit out are obscure to the general populace. I still have hope it's enough to make it happen.

Ryan, with 20/20 hindsight and reports, never pushed the envelope. In fact, he commented he was never turned down for $, and seemed to take pride in the fact he never spent as much as he could have. And I have tremendous respect for TR, so I'm not throwing shade his way. I'm just saying as good as he was, as good of a job as he did, at least in his 1st turn as GM, the financial game within the game passed him by. Simply making a point and ABSOLUTELY NOT going to get in to some eternal debate about ownership spending. The current FO seems willing to push the envelope and spend. And when it didn't work out, the switched gears and spent a different way. And even when they went a different direction and it didn't work out...see the mentioned Lynn and Morrisson signings....even the pundits initially hailed the moves. Our current FO has made mistakes. And some moves haven't turned out. But they haven't been afraid to try things and push the previous envelope. But Ted suggests a change in MO that I've been on my own soapbox for a while now. It's OK, and even smart, to take a patient approach to things like FA and see what value drops in your lap. It may not always work out, but it does at times. Witness Cruz, Marwin, Correa, a few arms that worked, and some that should have. But you can't, even as a mid market team, ONLY play the waiting game! As smart and observent as we all may be as amateur GM's, there is still so much we don't know, and will never know, as to the information and machinations of heading a FO. But at times, things just appear so obvious that it's perfectly fine to call out the decision makers in place. As an example, it seems fair to look back at 2022 and feel the FO was so fixated on the Buxton extension...which turned out fair or cheap, a different debate...and they simply ignored a flush market of pitching that passed them by and they ended up with Bundy and Archer only. While there is ZERO guarantee signing a "better" arm would have lead to success, those combined salaries could have garnered ONE SP with potential vs a couple "hopeful" signings. Right now, they are so focused on Correa, the market is slipping away. Even if they don't want to add to the rotation with some of the ridiculous numbers being offered and agreed on...and I get it...they have seemingly ignored the rest of the roster yet again. You didn't want to sign Haniger for the OF due to potential vs injury risk? OK. BUT you're going to stick with Garlick as your RH OF? You signed a quality catcher that you needed. But even IF you sign Correa, why aren't you in someone like Myers to be that RH OF that's been needed for a couple years now? Despite waiting on Correa, you can't tell me the FO is so blinded by other needs that they are going to continue, again, to let opportunity slip through their hands. They just HAVE to know there is room to add Vazquez at catcher and another bat to make a complete team. And that's my biggest issue with the FO right now. Going for the "whale" is awesome! Being patient can bring great dividends, usually relief or bench options, but they need to be AGGRESSIVE early on what they need and want. GO FOR IT. Strike early if you can and THEN sit back and wait. Now, THIS offseason is different than previous ones, even more so than Buck last year. The elephant in the room is larger, and I get that. But you just can't sit around in a trophy room and wait for the next big GET. You HAVE to play around the edges to make sure you don't screw up.

Initially, this is not the move I saw. I thought Narvaez or Barnhart made sense as solid, veteran additions from the LH side considering previous MO. But I've never believed "handedness" was the most important factor in putting together a catching tandem. I will repeat my previous thoughts and echo those posted above me, this provides the staff with a quality, experienced catcher with an OK bat who also provides a mentor for Jeffers in the same way Castro did for Garver a few years ago. Vazquez has caught a lot of great pitchers, has been on winning teams, has a pair of WS rings, and is reported as a good clubhouse guy. These are important factors over and above pure batting numbers. Jeffers is still only 25yo, had a little over 500 AB, and a ton of potential. He has the ability to learn from Vazquez, maybe relax a bit more, and grow further in to his role. "Rumors" were that Vazquez wanted to be guaranteed a #1 job. Well I don't like to place too much stock in to rumors, especially in this case. Even as the potential #1 right now, easy to see a 60/40 time share. I think he signed because it's a great offer on a team that has potential. Man, I really like this signing, even if it doesn't grab headlines.

Personally, I think they are a little light on the pen. A healthy Alcala and Thielbar should raise the floor some. But I think this also shows why one more really good, solid arm ro help the 7th-8th could go a long way. I think I'd have to say they are a little light on the rotation as well. Various exams and 2 mri's show Mahle's shoulder is sound. He says weird offseason, short ST, and then trying to throw too many innings early tired his arm. I'm going with that until I see otherwise. I can buy Ober at 90IP or less if hurt. But he was healthy in 2021 and I could see 120+ in 2023 if he remains healthy again. Just hard for me to hear how good Maeda feels, how good his control was at the end of the last year while throwing on the side, see his history, and then not see him more than 90 IP. Are they a tiny bit light on Buxton? I hope so. But all in all, I can't find any major disagreements here. I just think they're a little low here and there.

The Twins are being sincere in their efforts. Reading between tight lipped comments here and there, they've offered the 10yrs and are at or almost at $300M in their offer, while including opt outs. I really hope this works, for many reasons. But the longer it drags out, the more I feel the Twins are being played for leverage and someone, probably the Giants, are just going to say "hell with it" and go $330 and the Twins are done.

I never understood the 2020 draft. IIRC, despite being short, there were some decent college arms available that year and they just bypassed pitching alltogether with the exception of Raya. And he was he one guy I really liked in that draft. Sabato I could understand as he was young, could hit, could get OB, and showed tremendous power. I wasn't crazy about the pick, but I could understand it. Boy, he sure hasn't looked all that great so far. Soulaire, good athlete, some power potential to go along with some speed, uncertain what position he should play. I can see a ballplayer there if he can stay healthy and get the reps. I think Rosario has shown the most potential of the position players thus far, holding his own at a low age and displaying power and power potential. But Raya is the only one that really excites me at the moment.

I also think 7yrs is nuts. 6yrs might be too. And I really, really like Rodon. So do the Twins as they tried to land him twice last season. And I think he's a really good fit for the Twins as well. And I'm NOT in the group that thinks Rodon is a great injury risk. I mean, really, how many SP, if any, that you sign or trade for aren't at some sort of injury risk? I think Rodon is GOOD, even VERY GOOD, but $30M per for 6 or 7yrs gives me pause. I just don't know that history makes him a $30M per arm. That being said, if Correa is off the table, I'm not saying NO to Rodon. I'd be excited if he were added. And I know some of the signings this year are just NUTS, but when I look at signings like Darvish, Wheeler, Ray, and Gausman as similar arms the past few years, I just can't believe the kind of numbers being speculated right now. And history/philosophy says they won't go beyond 5yrs. I do think the Twins system is NOT depleted or "down" to any great deal. They are top and bottom heavy with talent, with a hole in the AA range. They have a really good chance to add to the system in the 2023 draft. But a trade for a SP with 2-3yrs of control MIGHT be the better route if they don't add a Bassitt or Eovoldi on a 3-4yr deal that isn't crazy. And I don't like moving Arraez or Polanco in part of a trade with a couple of top prospects, but it might be a better route than FA at this point. I don't have an easy answer that doesn't hurt to add a SP, and I'd love to add someone for quality depth and options. But I'm almost convinced the best lineup and depth and the best bullpen, with depth, and running with what they have in the rotation right now, with a few young arms ready/nearly ready, isn't the best option.

Love the emojis! That was pretty cool! But for giggles, thought I'd address the two points you aren't 100% sold on. 1] Not going to rehash Kepler's worth in keeping or move since it's been it's been beaten to death. But whether he's in RF or moved in favor of one of the young bats, I just think they have to aim higher than Garlick. Correa...still hoping/dreaming...Miranda, Buxton and even Farmer help the lineup against LHP. For that matter, Jeffers rakes against LHP. But for whatever reason, LHP has been a real bane for the Twins. "Better than Garlick" deepens the lineup and even offers a really good PH option with a mid-game pitching change. They just need more balance in the OF. 2] I like the base of our bullpen and it's potential an awful lot, especially if Winder, Henriquez, Sands, or pitcher X...maybe from rotation depth...can provide a legitimate 2-3 inning bridge when needed. Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Moran, and a healthy Alcala could/should be pretty damn good with a quality long man. And for the record, For the record, I still want Pagan moved if possible instead of trying him as a middle man). And there are a few arms at St Paul that might very well help at some point. But just like the rotation, I want to have the luxury of "too many" arms than not enough. How often does a team come out of ST with all their arms 100% healthy and good and ready to go? I want to hedge my bets, if I'm the Twins. I'm not even concerned about a RH or LH arm as there are good reasons for both. But if I'm trying to really compete for the Central and more, I'm going to EXPECT someone hurt, or not ready, or off to a bad start, and I really want that one additional arm to make sure my pen is as deep and good as it can be. Thanks for the response. Again, emojis were cool!

BRILLIANT!!

1} 10yrs and $315-$330M for Correa. It's for defense, the lineup, leadership, experience, and perception with fans and the rest of the league going forward. He makes a real difference, and not just on the field. 2} Sign Vasquez for defense and handling of the staff. If you can't get it done...and you really should...then pivot quickly to Narvaez before you lose him and have to settle for someone who brings lesser overall value to the team from farther down the FA list. 3} Go sign Wil Myers to something like $12-13M per for 2 or 3yrs. He's not great, but he's good, and he's probably the best RH OF bat on the market. He'll play almost daily somewhere, really help against LH pitching, but doesn't break the bank. Plenty of room for him and Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner/Gordon. Also, this is where Kepler is moved for roster space and $8.5M more for the budget. 4} A starting pitcher listed #4? Well, OK, how about 3B? Why so low? Because we aren't getting Rodon with Correa already on board. We at least have some good arms on board, and I see the other 3 points as important or more so. What about Bassitt? I like the idea, even though I don't like the QO attached. (Though I can't recall right now how that affects us next draft with position and new 1st round positioning, etc.). But I'd prefer Bassitt for 3yrs instead of 4, and maybe just bump him up to around $21-22M to compensate. What about Eovaldi? Is a trade, even if it's tough to let go of a couple guys, the way to go? No doubt there are options, and AAV would be lower than a FA. Regardless of who and how good, they need someone as good or better than what they have now. I don't know for sure who that might be. But FA is drying up for anyone that fits that category. 5} If points 1-4 are filled, it's time to add at least one quality arm to the pen. I just don't know that payroll would allow for a pair. And I'm not 100% sure we need more than one. But whether it's a Hand or Rogers from the LH side or someone like Fulmer from the RH side of things, I think the pen looks really good with one more quality veteran who you can trust in the 7th-8th innings.

Long standing fan of Max here, would be fine to have him back for multiple reasons, but fully understand it being time to part ways. Love to see someone like Myers brought on board as a solid, veteran RH OF, move Max, and trust in Wallner, Larnach, and Kirilloff. Sooner or later you need to get the kids in the field and at the plate on a daily basis and run with them. And as someone pointed out, you also have Gordon in the mix from the port side as well. I just have no clue what his actual worth is in regard to trade value. I mean, he frees up a roster spot for one of the younger guys, and frees up another $8.5M I believe for payroll...(come on, get rid of Pagan for another $4M-ish)...but how good of a player does Kepler bring back? A decent RP? A decent AA caliber player? He might be better as part of a package, if the right match can be found.

Way, way, way too early to speculate, though having names to watch and follow is pretty cool. I understand the Twins' philosophy of taking position players early in the draft. Special bats, outstanding athletes are usually sitting throughout the 1st round. And a hitter is probably "safer" to turn out vs an arm that just never gains control, has to shift to the pen as they simply can't master a 3rd pitch, or just plain old injured arms that never recover. And it looks like there are going to be some very good looking position players at #5 this next draft. Always pick the very best player available. Period. But at some point, you have to stretch a little bit for that big arm don't you? I don't mean a 15th pick you grab early at #5. I simply mean when you have an arm with elite potential, and a "safer" position player, sometimes I think you need to take your shot with the potentially big arm. Might this be the year?

I was going to say it looks like the Twins or the Giants unless a mystery team jumps up. Looks like the Padres might be that mystery team. IF I'm Correa and it was the Twins or Giants, and the offers are the same or really close, I'm choosing the Twins for a variety of reasons. But if I'm him, I'd be looking at the Padres with real interest. The Twins initial offer WAS HIGH and REMAINS creative as it allows Correa opt out possibilities. But as these things always play out, initial offers are just that. Did the Turner signing set the market? I'm not so sure. The Philies basically are doing the whole "Bonilla" deal on the short term by paying him a "retirement" check after he's done in 7-9yrs. So despite the total $ involved, the AAV is lower. The Twins seem more focused on higher AAV but 9-10yrs and forget some retirement payout. And I think that's smart for them. I still come back to the proposal Nick laid out a week or so ago that included opt outs and a potential guaranteed $330M. Absolutely crazy $, but granting Correa the power to look again at the market in 4yrs after earning $160M at that point, should he wish to do so. I know the financial numbers just sound CRAZY, but if the Twins opening offer was in the $280-290M area, which I believe it was, the long game to reach a $330M deal is another $4M per year. IF the Giants or Padres offer something close to 10yrs and $330M, and the Twins find a balance between their initial offer and that $330M mark, say $315-320, with opt outs, it would have to fall in the Twins favor wouldn't it? He wants to stay, the $ is still guaranteed, and he would STILL have the opportunity to opt out after 4yrs and look for something more at 32yo. It's in the Twins court to offer the best deal. And I KNOW NOTHING about these ridiculous numbers being tossed around. NO CLUE what the Giants or Padres might throw out. But if the Twins were in the ridiculous $300-320-ish range and still offering opt outs, I would think Correa and Boras would jump at that.