DocBauer

A recent podcast with John and Aaron...as well as Dan Hayes... used the term "freezer burn" in regard to Kepler. While a slightly jaded term, it's appropriate. If the Twins were in the market for a LH OF with great defense and power and a solid overall game, he'd be the kind of talented, bounceback guy you might be looking at. But sometimes it's just time for the team and player to have a fresh start. And I think that's where we are at in regard to Kepler. I've been a Max fan and supporter since the day he was signed. And if he's kept, I won't be upset, and will hope for a rebound. But with Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Gordon knocking on the door for playing time and opportunity, along with whoever they add as a much needed RH, it's just time for both parties to go a different direction. It makes me sad to say that, but I believe it's true.

This! Thinking BIG PICTURE about the roster for next year I always come up with some sort of 12 man position grouping with room for 1 more. Just examine for a moment: 2 catchers, Arraez, Polanco, Miranda and SS TBD, Larnach, Buxton, Gordon, Kepler/Wallner, and a RH OF TBD. ASSUME Kirilloff is actually ready to go at 1B/OF. That's 12 with a 13th spot to fill. While I like Gordon and think he's actually going to still improve, he's the only "cover" for multiple positions. And yes, you can live with that most days and maybe add a defense first speed guy to the OF who rarely starts. OR, you can add another DH/1B bat like Bell or Abreu, etc. OR, you can add someone like Farmer who is, yes, a break glass temp SS, but who can play multiple positions to provide additional infield depth and not just have Gordon, freeing him to do whatever he needs to do in the infield, outfield, and even pinch run. And if Gordon is filling in at CF, you still have another veteran infielder to fill in where needed. And let's face it, until Lewis, Lee, and Julien are ready, infield depth at St Paul is currently non-existant. I think this is a smart move. Rough payroll calculation: $90M if/when/logically/hopefully Pagan is moved, minus Urshela, add in Farmer...$86M. Minus a very possible Kepler move, a $78M payroll. That's over $60M to spend to just reach 2022 numbers. Add in just a 5% bump for league wide "inflation" of expected payroll...and the Twins maybe even hitting the $150M mark...the Twins still have, potentially, $67-70M to still dole out for additions.

I like Urshela as a player and as a clubhouse guy. I would have been very happy to see him stay. He's good, not great, but good. But he isn't part of the future. Regardless of the Correa situation...or any of the other top FA SS...you simply have to make room for the young ballplayers in your system. It's the same situation when we talk about making room in the rotation for young arms vs yet another Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy, Archer type of signing. Miranda moves to 3B now, with the ability to also play 1B. And Lewis and Lee...not forgetting Julien...are options also at 3B/SS/2B going forward depending on how the SS situation gets handled. All young, inexpensive, controllable, more talented, and full of potential. Again, I like Urshela, he has value, but he wasn't going to be part of 2024 and beyond and this makes sense. It also frees up some extra $ to be added to the pot for other additions. I thought Urshela might have brought a little more back, say a AA player or arm. But with only 1yr of control left, the Twins appeared to go for a younger arm with more upside rather than someone higher in the Angels chain but maybe with a lower ceiling.

BTW, if you haven't already done so, feel free to visit Brock's post on MORE LOGO LEAKS and leave a "like". Just a few more "likes" and yours truly receives a wonderful gifting of a new pennant to replace the "old one" I picked up in August during my first visit to Target Field. And yes, I'm pimping myself unabashedly here, LOL!

I liked the old "M" from the 90's era. How about stealing from the Tigers and doing an Old English "M"? Some have pointed out it appears to be an upside down "W" to pay homage to the Senator days. And I get wanting to do that. But it just looks odd and clunky to me.

I agree whole heartedly on the missing Mini and Paul logo. It's an iconic, stand alone symbol of the franchise and I think it should have been included. Obviously, it's an easy add and I hope they do so.

I think they are great! They are clean and classy, modern but with that touch of past for a classic feel. BUT....that "M" is just the worst! It's like the whole re-brand idea went to 90-95% and then just hit a brick wall.

Going to disagree only slightly with you Seth. I think Gray was a 2yr deal with a "we'll see" at the end of 2023, if not earlier. Mahle was brought in as a potential "steal" for a pitcher just reaching the right time of stuff and experience, to help in 2022...which didn't happen, unfortunately...and be a potential re-sign for the future. His injury/dead arm issues could actually play in the Twins favor going forward. I just don't see the Twins making an extension offer offseason while there is still concern. They tend to play "safe" at times. I believe, if they like the medicals, they will bump to $7 or $8, $12, and $15, with an option for $18. They might go $10, $13, $18, and $20. But health is a factor, as always, as well as what Mahle does and what he believes his worth is. Is Mahle, and his reps, convinced of his value to potentially exceed that? Just too much to try and predict what the future holds. But again, I think the FO traded for him because he was getting close to the time in his career where stuff and experience moves him to another level. Think Ray a year or so ago. But I think the FO was looking at him as someone who might just be about ready to transform in to a top of the rotation SP. And if there is ANY indication of that happening they would be smart to lock him up

I like this idea, and have stated that we might be all demanding an extension by 2024 if the surgery and rehab work out. But I think we all agree we have to see positive results first.

And I agree with you 100%. But Greinke, Cole, and Verlander were added from outside the organization. And you absolutely have to allow for the young arms at some point. Sink or swim, right? Ryan and Ober are pretty nice arms to work with. And there are others right on the cusp, maybe even Balazovic, who I'm predicting will bounce back strong. But, again, healthy, IMO, we don't have a collection of #4 SP. And if I'm the FO and I have a chance to add to what I have without having to trade away the future, I'm going to add a potential difference maker and work it all out later.

BTW, I forgot to address Garlick in my earlier post. While I would have been 100% OK leaving him off the roster in favor of protecting an additional prospect, I do understand why the Twins kept him at this time. While he is a very different player, he is this year's version of Cave in 2022. The FO knows they need better. He's signed to hang around and be removed later, but is hopefull keeper, like Cave, who is a fall back option or break glass in case of need option. I believe his time on the 40 man is limited.

Yes, trades are important to add. And development is key. Very few #1 SP, much less a true ACE, hit FA or are available for trade. And when they are, they are very, very expensive, one way or another. The key is finding someone just about ready to put stuff and experience together at the same time, usually late 20's, and then watch them bloom. Gausman and Ray are a couple of recent examples. Rodon is a perfect "fit" based on those factors now, and what he's done the past couple of seasons. The problem with development is it takes time. And nobody wants to hear that. But it's true. With very little exception, nobody just drafts an ACE or #1 SP. There's a reason virtually every prospect is listed as a mid rotation starter, sometimes with a bump to high side. I don't object to your opinion as to what the Twins have on hand right now. But I will agree to disagree on your "ranking" of the current staff. A healthy Gray is a very good pitcher and a #2 on most staffs, who throws like a #1 at times. Mahle is younger arm just reaching that right age and time where things sometimes come together. And his numbers away from Cincinnati indicate he might just be ready to blossom. Both Ryan and Ober have absolutely flashed, while still young and inexperienced. And I simply won't, and can't, speculate how good they may or may not be in the future. Maeda is a mystery. Despite not appearing late last season as wondered about, reports are he was throwing easy and showing fine command. He was good with the Dogers. He was GREAT with the Twins. Who shows up in 2023? But I have to disagree that we have a #3 and a bunch of 4's. HEALTHY, and with a little more development/experience from Ryan and Ober, I think we have a couple of quality #2's and a trio of #3's. And there's depth and "possibilities" from that depth. And while I have stated repeatedly that if I were the FO I would simply expect the worst, and just anticipate various injuries and look to add if I could, IMO, you might be under selling the arms we currently have. Agree to disagree?

Would Renfroe be a downgrade defensively? Of course he would. But I don't that much better offensive production wouldn't overcome any runs lost. Rumor has it the Brewers may be looking to cut some payroll if possible. Assuming that's true, this deal could make a lot of sense. Financially, I have really liked the idea of adding Haniger as a RH option to the OF, despite some injury concerns. Haniger has a better bet, but with Renfroe being a better daily bet for the lineup, he may be a better choice. And $, they'd be very close, IMO. If Renfroe is better in LF...and I don't know if that's the case or not...Larnach and Wallner have the arms for RF for sure. I like this idea a lot. My concern would be what do we have to give up for a player that is currently on a 1yr deal? Urshela makes sense. But what else? Would we have to give them Larnach or Wallner? I think I might have to pass if that's the case and again think the best FA route. But in principal, this is a pretty smart idea.

I understand warning bells going off for any player or pitcher who's had any sort of injury issue in the past, especially considering some of the injury bug issues the Twins have had as of late. But honestly, with little exception, what player or pitcher hasn't been injured at some point? Verlander was a horse for years...even in some down years...until he wasn't. (Which makes his comeback all that more amazing). Rodon is an injury risk. But so is just about every single arm out there. He's had 2 good, solid, mostly healthy seasons in a row and been very good in both. I'm willing to go along with any risk that Rodon has, provided my medical experts don't come back alarmed. He's the one potential difference maker out there that costs money, and not players or prospects. He makes the Twins better barring something catastrophic happening.

I would have dumped Pagan last summer. So the ONLY reason to tender him is because you think someone will bite on a bag of balls or similar in a deal for him. Paddack is making a drop in the bucket when the vast millions of dollars of a payroll are concerned, and worth keeping around for 2024, if not a late 2023 appearance. The rest are all easy keeps for sure. I think the only reason there is some question on tendering Urshela is not because he's not liked, not because he might not fit...though that's questionable when you look at possible roster construction scenarios...but simply a question about his trade value to another team. Will another team think he's good enough, what they need, to pay him $9.2M for 1yr. If the Twins offseason moves dictate that he's a role player, and not a fixture, they are over paying him. So if nobody else out there needs/wants a 3B like Urshela, then he's over priced to be on the Twins bench. But I believe he's tendered, and I believe there's got to be a couple teams, at least, where he would be an upgrade to what they have and would be willing to make a small-ish trade with the Twins for him.

For the overall player he is, for the presence he is, for the leader and gamer he is, I'd really like Correa back. And I'm willing to spend a ton to keep him, if I'm the Twins. I was thinking $35M per on a 8 or 9yr deal with an opt out after 3yrs. This gives the Twins a sense of security for those first 3yrs and offers Correa the option for something bigger and longer when he's still only 30yo, plus the security of just sticking with his deal if the market doesn't offer said bigger or longer offer. We're talking a guaranteed $280-$315! And it's up to the Twins to decide if they want to front load a bit more for even greater payroll flexibility 6-7-8 years from now. But are we really talking about $40M per year for 8-9-10yrs?? That's $320M minimum up to $360-$400M! I just don't know how I can justify a guaranteed deal for something like that. IMO, the target is 8-9yrs and a ceiling of around $315M. Remember, he's already gotten 1yr and $35M from the Twins, so it's not like we're trying to short change him. I want him, but, at some point, suggested or reported numbers being tossed out there just don't make sense.

$60M to spend, up to $80 if Urshela is moved in non-tender or trade, and if Kepler is moved since it just might be time. Really depends on how major the FO approach is going to be. The fact that "reports" about a Correa offer include trying to resolve things as early as possible is good in how all of this offseason works out is good news. But for now, I'm only addressing the OF situation. There's good reasons/scenarios to move Kepler. There's also reasons/scenarios to keep Max. While I have fingers crossed in regard to Kirilloff being ready and good to go, or nearly ready, to resume his career and fulfill all his potential, I am not writing his name in ink for the opening day roster anywhere. I have a lot of hope/faith we will get to see Larnach start to bloom in 2023. I'm uncertain how to fully project Wallner, but I think he's a keeper. But I could also see a roster construction where he's at AAA to begin 2023 to work on defense and the little things. And then we have the nice super-utility Gordon. ALL LH! The team has been short a quality RH OF for a few years now. It's been a pretty major need that has been left empty. It's a pretty major need that's been pushed too often aside by the FO as well as debates about other positions. Kepler, healthy, is a nice ballplayer. Excellent RF defense, solid CF defense when slid there, decent OB%, runs the bases well, etc. Not a horrible hitter, and pretty good power. Again, with so much youth and talent available, but a few arguments about roster construction, there are reasons to both keep him as well as move him. But regardless, a legitimate, RH bat is needed in ANY roster scenario. And the recently re-signed Garlick, IMO, is around as a fall back, much like Cave was last year. Haniger, IMO, is the #1 target. I hate that he is an injury concern. But he's a quality hitter with power and past production when healthy. (He's even covered CF here and there). I believe he's 32yo in 2023, not old, not young. He does have some injury concerns. He only earned $7.75M in 2022. He's basically been under paid by production when healthy. In my blueprint, I had him with a bump to $10M per on a 2yr deal. With a dearth of RH OF anywhere close to the ML level...other than maybe Martin...a 3rd year could be argued. But I'm not sure I buy projections of $12-15M due to age and injuries. If he's affordable, he's my best fit for the Twins. I have interest in the over paid Wil Myers, same age, less production, better health, less defense I believe. Don't laugh, but I've contemplated Andrew McCutchen on a 1yr as a 3rd option. While long in the tooth for a ML player, and no longer the player he once was, he wasn't bad in 2022, following a pretty nice 2021. Might he still have solid value/production hitting primarily against LH pitching? I don't think I'm crazy in my thinking. There is a TON to see unfold over the next few months. And trying to predict what is going to happen is like picking a lotto ticket winner. But unless we see some major surprises taking place, one thing that just can't be ignored is a legitimate to very good RH OF. Haniger has some risk, but he's also the perfect choice to bring on board.

Unreal expectations of hope left unfulfilled bears a lot of weight on Sano and his perception, IMO. Injuries did him no favors. I don't know that his being a large human being played in to those injuries, or slower recovery, or had no affect. But does it matter? Hopes and expectations don't play well with injuries that derail what might have been. (Goodness knows any Minnesota sports fan understands that). I often wonder if Sano's hot streaks weren't quite as blazing, and his cold streaks weren't quite as frigid...if there was just a little more consistency instead of high peaks and valleys graph...would we have a different perception of his Twins career?

No. If he was RH and available for around $9-10M I'd seriously consider it despite the fact he simply can't hit. The power is there, the defense is there, and he usually holds an acceptable OB%. But, sorry, I'm in favor of moving Kepler to free up $ for other additions, and for allowing Larnach, Wallner, and Kirilloff room to play/develop/produce. I mean, we need to add someone better than Garlick at some point to balance the OF, but that's not Gallo. If Kepler is moved, and all the other needs are addressed, I could see a "swing" back to adding a LH power bat if he's there. But adding another LH OF, even as a potential replacement for a traded Kepler, is waaaay down on my list. And really, why not just keep Kepler at that point?

Legumina wasn't in my top 4, that's for sure. But I understand holding on to the potential they feel he has, pure arm talent. Not sure he would have been selected, but that's just my opinion. Personally, I think the idea of the Twins system suddenly being "down" is a combination of trades, graduations and injuries. There's still a lot to like, overall, while granting there is a bit of a gap from some very good, young talent on the 40 man already, as well as some AAA names, and then a dip down to A and rookie level ball. And I think there's a few very interesting names not protected that might intrigue a team to draft them. But you have to remember there are 29 other teams with non-protected players also available. So for the Twins to have 5 picked might be high. I sure hope you're wrong as I'd certainly like to keep some of the guys not protected. I guess if there are, it would, in a bizarre way, be a compliment to the 40 man talent and the depth of the system. Let's just hope it's only 2 or 3 and they don't all stick and are returned back.

We always have to remember that on average, a team will only see 2-3 players selected. And even then, very often some just aren't ready and will be offered back. And very few "lost" players turn out to be difference makers. Doesn't mean they can't turn out to be solid ballplayers, just not often anything approaching stardom. I do think this went about according to expectation, primarily Julien, Canterino, and Headrick. Legumina was a bit if a surprise as I thought it might come down to him, Laweryson or Sisk. When in doubt, always keep arms you like. Legumina is a bit of a flier, but IIRC, he's got more pure stuff than Laweryson, and is still finding his way a bit after TJ. I am a somewhat surprised by not protecting Sisk. I thought he should have been brought up late in 2022 for a looksee. I'm betting he's gone. I don't see Williams or Isola being selected. They catch but have mostly played 1B. Some of that is get a number of different guys time behind the plate while keeping their bats in the lineup. But I'm not sure either is ready for any sort of regular duty at this time and doubt they'd be stashed on a roster. The two guys I'd really hate to see go would be Helman and Severino. Helman is not a top prospect by any means, but he can fill a role with an OK bat, some power and good speed. And he can be plugged in almost anywhere in the field as a last bench player. He ABSOLUTELY should have been with the Twins late in 2022 when the OF was in disarray and short of RH bats. Cave and Contreras were marched out daily instead. And Severino finally began to flash last year. I don't think he's ready, but he's talented enough to be a stash for a rebuilding team. While not top prospects, the "depleted" system still has some intriguing guys who will get selected. Really hoping Helman and Severino are not, or are offered back.

Haniger interests me a lot. He's not young at 32yo, but not old either. The bat and power are solid. He could be a fine starter to an excellent RH role player with the likes of Larnach, Wallner, and AK. There is some risk due to past injuries. He made $7.75M in 2022 and I had him in my blueprint for $10M per and maybe 2yrs. I mean, Martin is the only potential RH OF even close to the parent club right now. I predicted a raise of a couple $M over his 2022 salary due to inflation and a need to just "get it done". Maybe I'm over pricing him? Don't want a full time DH unless he's pretty special. I want the best, deepest and most balanced roster I can get and rotate DH. Martinez is close to being that "special" DH. Just not fully convinced at 35yo and a decrease in HR power that he had a lot left. Drury would be a nice fit for a solid bat and lineup versatility. But do we trust his breakout? I'm going to say no unless he comes in late and cheap.

Nick, really appreciate the update, especially with a little more detail and background on the coaching and administrative changes. Couple points: 1] I understand the use of a projected payroll of $140M based on last year. We have to start somewhere, right? But I recall last year at this time, coming off a poor 2021, when some projected cost cutting and a payroll of $100-120M. Instead, the Twins and the FO did what they've largely done thus far, and keep payroll about ML average, usually placing somewhere around 14th to 16th. MLB, like most sports and entertainment industries, tends to follow a different path, often, than "normal" economic factors. I fully expect MLB to see a solid 5% raise in salaries across the board. I think that's a fair and even trend across sports in general. (The 2020 covid year was a weird and difficult outlier across sports-given). If we follow precedence, said increase should put the Twins at around $147M. 2] The total amount of available spending capital is so damn hard to predict, not just because of any obscure Correa factor, but also due to Kepler and Urshela. There are a ton of reasons to keep both. A healthy Kepler is a good player and excellent defender who is "cheap" considering total value. And while I have great faith in Larnach, and Wallner, one may or may not be quite ready and AK remains a very hopeful question mark, I personally am not "counting" on him. And while the Twins, yet again, very much need a RH OF, there's real value in keeping a healthy Kepler as more of a "sure thing", especially with an OF addition. Everything I just said about Kepler pretty much applies to Urshela. He's a good teammate and a very solid player with real value. And I'd like to keep him in various, potential roster configurations. The problem is, combined, they offer another $18M in spending capital to augment the roster if the Twins sign Correa...or one of the other top SS...and make a serious move for Rodon...my #1 or #2 target...or maybe a Bassett SP option. Is signing Correa, or one of the other top SS to a somewhat lesser deal, AND signing Rodon a fantasy? Maybe it is. But this FO is placed in an enviable and opportunistic situation that we haven't seen before! So however it works out, and whatever change of direction might take place, it may simply prove necessary to move either or both of Kepler and Urshela in order to flesh out the rest of the roster. The absolute WORST THING they could do at this point is just sit back and wait and be "patient" and just wait for things to fall in their lap. It's not going to happen. And then they've BLOWN all this opportunity to re-tool a team that could be really good and end up in a "settle" and hope situation. 3] I have to somewhat disagree with the "no trouble" clearing additional roster spot comment. And I've been saying this for a while now. While SS is the only major hole projected towards 2023, there are definite needs. Needs are a RH bat, another catcher, probably one more quality BP arm, and SS. And there remains the arguable "one more SP as good as Gray and Mahle or better" scenario. That's at least 4 spots, very possibly 5, and maybe 6 if we can bring on yet another quality BP arm. And we're at 37 on the roster right now. And then we still need to protect at least a handful of milb players. Pagan should be moved for ANYTHING if someone will bite. Otherwise, dump him immediately. We NEED better than Garlick, though I'd love to have him back on a milb deal, maybe a split deal like Cave had. I just don't see protecting Stashak, coming off injury. Would be nice to have him back, but don't see anyone nabbing him, and there are other arms in the system getting ready. No way we protect Contreras, though again, I'd sure like him back at AAA. 37-4 is 33 on the 40 man. Room enough to add 4-6 additions, C, OF/RH bat, SS, RP, additional P, whether SP or RP or both. But what about protecting prospects? And I know once you "set" your 40 man you can then cut someone later after the rule 5 and hope they sneak through, in order to add someone else. And I know that typically, most teams only lose 2-3 players in the rule 5. But is it smart to risk Enlow, Sands, and MAYBE Megill? I'm OK risking Megill despite his stuff and "possibly" harnessing it. Love to have him at AAA, but his stuff, though good, hasn't proven consistent enough to warrant a spot push come to shove. Sands has equally good stuff, has been a top 20 prospect, has flashed a little, but not proven enough yet. But we dump him? He could be another Jax, if not better, and provides depth. Does a good, solid milb career until 2022 warrant risking his potential loss? Maybe so. Enlow was a high pick and signed for over value who didn't flash until late in 2019 and the early part of 2021 before surgery. Still only 23yo and protected thus far, do you risk someone snapping him up for future protection? I'm NOT saying you are wrong to not protect arms like Sands and Enlow in particular, Megill as a "maybe", I'm just saying NOT protecting a couple arms like these could bite in a year or so. Same with Canterino, very similar situation to Enlow. I just can't believe anyone would nab Canterino coming off surgery, but I never saw the Orioles grabbing and keeping Tyler Wells either. Again, you're not wrong about "easy" cuts, but I'm not sure there won't be some hard decisions of who to protect and who not to either. Despite recent trades and movement upward ML promotions, and some potentially bad draft selections. the Twins aren't devoid of talent. And like everyone else, the lost 2020 season doesn't affect rule 5 status. And while rule 5 won't be some free for all situation, there are more than a few solid prospects to try and protect, without room for all, that I don't think "easy" not protecting is necessarily all that easy.

Roger, it's my understanding that those buyouts are part of 2022 business, so that $4.5M actually goes toward last season and not next.

The Twins "approach" to how to us a bullpen is dead on; no "closer only" mentality and having a fireman or fireman for high leverage situations. It's been the results that have been the issue at times due to the talent on hand, or lack thereof. With everyone on board right now, they are very close to having the 8 plus deep they need to make it work the right way. Now, I want the best depth and best up front "answers" I can have vs hopes, so I think one more really good arm is needed. Two would be just awesome. But no more sitting back and just seeing what "value" falls in your lap at the end of the winter. That's fine for a guy or two here and there, but no way to build and maintain a quality pen.