DocBauer

The next prospect list! Of course I have to comment! 30] BYRON CHOURIO: He's so brand new to the organization I know ZERO about him except what I've read the past couple of weeks. Young, talented, projectile, but so far away I just don't know you rank him. So why not 30? And with a first name like that, he's got to be good, right? (And I'm not talking Buxton, high 5'er if you get my tongue in cheek reference, lol). 29] AARON SABATO: I get 1st round status and what he did in college. I get the power. I get having a good eye and the ability to draw walks. But when you hit this poorly at A and AA, it tells me your eye is going to betray you as you climb forward without a major adjustment. Better pitchers await at AAA and especially the ML level. Right now, I don't see him actually "hitting" and I wouldn't have him in the top 30 until I see real signs of improvement with the bat. 28] KALA'I ROSARIO: He's got some nice tools to work with and is only 20yr old. The FSL has always had the reputation as being a hard league to hit in. In previous days, if you could hit there, the transition to AA should be pretty smooth. NOW, it's a transition to A+ if you can hit there. It's almost unfair that Ft Myers is your 1st or 2nd year??? But then again, if you can hit there, should be a relatively smooth transition on promotion. Logic says the 20yo Rosario should begin at Ft Myers again. But I can see a mid year promotion to CR and decent results when it happens. 27] YUNIOR SEVERINO: Last year, before the season stated, we did a sort of "pick to click" at different levels. He was one of my choices and I'm going to pat my own back on that one, lol. He's young enough, and produced quite well at both levels last season that I would rank him at least a few spots higher. His defensive home and role is yet to be established, but he's got good talent. I think he's a safe bet to be at St Paul about mid season. 26 & 24] BRYAN ACUNA & DANNY De ANDRE: I have them grouped together as they are only a year apart, play the same position. And there's a good chance they will both begin 2023 in the FCL. Both seem to have the skills to stick at SS at this point. Acuna has family bloodlines that can't be ignored, and had a solid debut in the DSL. De Andre didn't have as good of a season with the bat, but he was also state side for the first time. Regardless of what spot you want to rank them, they were top international signings with projection and are so close that I group them together. Both a long way away but so similar, why not have them both in the bottom third but with the ability to really grow. 25] BRENT HEADRICK: I have a soft spot for LHP, primarily because good ones are few and far between, and the Twins haven't had a lot of good ones for a while. Headrick only threw 3.2 innings after being drafted in 2019, and then missed all of 2020. So college pitcher or not, 2021 was really his first true taste of professional baseball. I think that's important to look at, as it is for other 2019 draftees. He was good in 2021 and even better in 2022, as the OP shows. I just don't know enough about his cureent velocity at this point to know if his numbers are based on control and deception, or is his FB a legitimate, solid option to go along with his other pitches to remain in the rotation. If he's a legitimate 92-93+ with control and can keep his other offerings solid, then he's a potential rotation piece. And I hope that is the case. You can't deny his numbers at this point. (Reminiscent of Ober a couple years ago). At worst I see him as a high quality middle bullpen arm. 23] COLE SANDS: And here is where I might get some negative feedback. His milb numbers have been pretty damn good up until 2022. I had actually forgotten how good his 2021 season at AA was. Coming in to 2022, I saw him as a St Paul rotation fixture with a chance to help the Twins at some point. We'll, things didn't quite work out that way. He wasn't great at AAA, and wasn't exactly great with the Twins. But if you actually watched his games with the Twins, what you saw was a crappy inning, or half crappy inning, along with a really good looking "other" inning or half inning. What I saw was a decent FB that needs a little more "hop" or control, and some breaking pitches that were just NASTY and left a few batters embarrassed. For a rookie basically skipping most of AAA, I saw what I expected, someone not yet ready. But you could SEE there was an arm there with stuff. I NEVER want to give up on a possible rotation arm too early. And I suspect the Twins will want to have him in the St Paul rotation to make damn sure he isn't a possible SP option. But I have a hunch he could end up being a really good BP piece with a decent FB, and a pair of breaking pitches that could play really well. 22] BLAYNE ENLOW: What else is there to say? He was OK in early work as an overslot HS signee who flashed briefly before TJ to begin 2021. He was mediocre last year in 2022. Not bad, but mediocre results overall. But I'm not sure what people expect. He was one of the top HS arms in the country when the Twins offered him enough $ to skip college. So he was OK, flashed, and then was injured. Protected, DFA, he's still in the system. I wouldn't have grabbed him in the rule 5, but the Twins thought enough of him and his potential to try to keep him. They succeeded. NOW, with a full season of "getting back to business and figuring myself out again", the still 23yo SHOULD be ready to take a step forward. If he does, he's back on the 40 man and has a future. If not, he might be gone. I never like dismissing any prospect after an injury ruined season. Not right, not fair. But 2023 is his prove it season. 21] JAYLEN NOWLIN: I can not tell a lie. This is my favorite on this list. I follow the draft and the entire milb system very closely, but I had forgotten about him as he was a 19th round pick in 2021. Not sure why, but he pitched 1/3 of an inning. Late signing??? But I DO RECALL Seth talking about him last offseason as someone to watch after instruction league. So really, 2022 was his FIRST milb season. And GOOD CALL for Seth to be watching and plugged-in to this kid. Control is obviously an issue, though that is certain for every prospect. But more to the point, is there potential for a 3rd offering? Control or not, he needs some kind of change, cutter, splitter, etc, to remain in the rotation. I never buy in to height and weight on the milb site as they always seem behind. But if he's gained a few pounds/muscles at his age to get beyond the reported 180lbs, he might be able to maintain that reported 97mph velocity and be a legitimate SP with a 3rd pitch.. REGARDLESS, the Twins might have drafted themselves a hell of a powerful LHRP who could debut in a year or two. A nice group of 10 that I like. Potential. Done with Sabato until he shows me something more. Really surprised he's in the top 30. A few "wait and see" kids that ranking doesn't matter. Four pitchers that could contribute or make a big rise this season.

I don't know if Kepler is going to be moved or not. A month ago I would have asked when, and not if. But I don't see Gurriel, or anyone, added unless someone in the OF is moved. (He'd make the most sense). The FO has a history of making moves all the way up until opening day. And we will have 3 open roster spots to work with once ST starts. There are a number of solid pen arms still available. There's a few arms coming off bad years who could be late, rebound signings. I would be surprised if the Twins don't bring in at least 1 arm. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if a deal was already in place with someone.

A lot of interesting names on the honorable mention list here. And agreed that some are interesting and will undoubtedly find their way to the ML level at some point, whether with the Twins, or someone else. Helman is at the top of my list. Boy has he turned his game around the past 2yrs. He's a little older, a bit of a late bloomer, so I understand why he's not more highly regarded. I was actually surprised someone didn't nab him in the rule 5 as a talented utility type. I'm still flabbergasted he wasn't brought up at the end of last year when the Twins were scrambling to put players on the field. He's going to be a nice role player for someone. Prato is one of those guys who seems to always be forgotten. Including by me. I think he defies a specific role offensively, but he just keeps producing and putting up solid numbers overall. And every time I look at milb box scores, and his numbers, he just keeps getting the job done. Nice to see Keirsey have a good year. I recall his bad college injury and questions about his selection, despite a lot of good tools. I just don't know how he "fits" going forward with the OF depth available. But he might end up being a LH backup to Buxton. I wish Isola and Williams were true catchers. While not knowing enough about them defensively, and falling understanding ALL milb catchers are going to move around so that EVERYONE gets to play and develop, they just don't seem to spend enough time behind the dish to tell me they have much of a future there at the ML level. Williams had a bad shoulder in college, and I'm guessing that's why he's been more of a 1B/DH. Too bad, I've heard he's a smart receiver. Really hoping Cardenas and the other 4 catchers the Twins drafted the past 2yrs take a step up in 2023. It's such an important position, and so hard to find good ones, much less great ones. I'm holding out hope for Carmago, not listed here. Is he forgotten? Or does he appear as a surprise in the top 30? I don't think Mooney and Adams are the only "boy could they make a jump if" for this year. But I do recall them being drafted as "intriguing" options in the mid rounds. But Laweryson is of great interest to me. He MIGHT begin 2023 in Wichita as the St Paul staff could be pretty packed, but I see him at AAA quickly, if not right away. His delivery is very sneaky, and that change is NASTY. I think we'll see him in middle relief for the Twins in the near future. Really excited about a number of international kids taking a step forward this next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few gaining some serious momentum.

As I do with the NFL draft, I don't spend a lot of time on draft prospects and scenarios until the actual draft gets closer. Just so many variables over the course of the months until the draft actually arrives. But I love and appreciate articles and information of this sort to aid with my familiarity as the time draws close. So thank you Jeremy, and the everyone else's contributions! I'm not certain the Twins are desperate for catching help after selecting 5 between the past couple of drafts. But it's an incredibly important position and hard to find good ones, much less great ones, so I do believe you take a couple every year if you're smart. I also agree a really nice RH OF, or two, would be smart to help balance out the system. I could see one very early. Hard to argue with the Twins going heavy on arms this year. The prospect cupboard isn't barren, but it does feel light compared to the position player strength from the DSL on up. There's a few guys they selected in 2022 that look intriguing and seem to fit the FO MO of projects that have the frame and at least 1 very good pitch and/or quality that could make them a potential steal. But yeah, time to re-stock the cupboard.

Brian Duensing for.............

I admit to being a bit wary after reading the information in the OP. But I'm still interested if the $ isn't steep. He's got a live arm, is only 30yo, IIRC, and might even have a little upside in the pen as he's only being doing it for a about 1 1/2 years. And we're talking about a live arm for the 6th-7th and not necessarily a set-up guy. While I am still OK with Fulmer, I have wondered if a LH to team with Thielbar might not be the best option, however. Moran still fits as a 3rd lefty, especially since he generally has reverse splits.

I TRY not to respond initially when moves are made...work helps with that, LOL...as I want to remove the "fan" in me and try to be the best "logical" amateur GM I can be. I don't like every move made, or not made, thus far in the offseason. But by and large, I have to say, I see the "method of madness" in just about every move made so far and can't help but like what's been done. 1] HOWEVER Correa ended up in Minnesota, it solidified the SS spot, changed the entire complextion of the team, and suddenly gave free reign to the movement of high, young talent to play and contribute throughout the roster now and the next few years. Correa is not a new addition, but he adds so much, and offers up so much more flexibility. 2] Arraez being moved HURTS, as a fan, and questions about replacing him. The timing stinks because as I've stated previously, SOMEONE good was going to be moved NOW, or next offseason. The timing stinks because the best replacements for what he brings offensively don't appear ready yet. But you can't get something without giving up something. 3] My knee jerk reaction to Gallo was filled with angst. Period. I'm still not sure I would have gone that route. His 2022 was a nightmare. Period. But if you take a step back and actually look at his career you will see some VERY INTERESTING numbers. He became a full time ML ballplayer in 2017. (I'm deliberately ignoring the position/defensive debate). From 2017 to 2021, five ML seasons, the abbreviated 2020 season, for whatever reason and weirdness, was his worst year. But over that 5yrs, even including the poor 2020, his quadruple slash line is impressive! .209/ .337/ .493/ .830 with an AVERAGE HR total of 30 dingers even including the short and not very good 2020. Knock the BA all you want...and it isn't good to be sure...but the OB, the SLG, the OPS, the HR numbers just can't be denied. An .830 OPS is pretty damn good, however you achieve it. His DOWNFALL, was the trade to NY in 2021. He hasn't produced the same since then, through 2022. So either he just suddenly lost it, or he just didn't fit it, never felt comfortable, lost his confidence, whatever, etc. But his numbers are there for anyone to take the time to look at. The FO is banking on the "Texas" version of Gallo in 2023 with a change of scenery vs the 1 1/2 of NY and LA to provide offense, solid to better defense, and maybe be a bridge for the young talent. Again, not my favorite move, but I see now what they are doing. 4] LOVE the Vazquez signing as a high quality catcher with a solid bat. Reminds me so much of the Castro signing to help the staff and work with Garver, and alleviate some pressure. Won't again re-state my opinions on Jeffers, but at still only 25yo, and with legitimate STICK potential, Jeffers has 500+ ML AB and potential. I see a parallel here. 5] Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, and the depth of SWR and Varland beyond those 6 is pretty great. Nick merely mentioned Dobnak as a possible surprise contributor. It might happen. It might not. Why so much angst given to a guy who was pretty good as a backend option before his finger injury? He was pretty solid previously. The rotation depth is the best in years. Much better than the start of 2022. The rotation is FAR better today than 2022. 6] I still think the Twins should be grabbing someone to enhance the PEN. I think Lopez will be just fine. He's probably not as outstanding as he was with the Orioles, but is better than he showed after the trade. His stuff is too good, A fully healthy Alacala, building on his 2nd half of 2021, could make a huge difference. Moran has a lot of potential. But if the FO really wants to make a difference, there are still a handful of solid BP arms out there to add, and not just trust in young arms to be ready. I'm still surprised Fulmer hasn't been brought on board. Chafin and Hand are still out there as well if they'd prefer to add a LH option. Or maybe add 2 arms? The payroll is sitting about $150M, give or take. Right now, they are missing opportunity. 7] I'd take Farmer over Urshela for versatility sake. 8] Taylor was NOT the direction for an OF I initially thought of. But I love the addition. Great defense, speed, a completely average hitter, but also a legitimate CF/OF defensive option. HAS THE FO BUILT A BETTER TEAM TODAY THAN 2022: YES. The rotation and bullpen are better, with depth. The defense looks strong, with the agreed on Miranda proving himself at 3B and AK being ready at 1B, and early accounts saying he's fine with "natural" soreness from rehabbing and getting his swings in. Is catching and defense better overall? Yes. Should the Twins be done? I'd say NO. They've done a good job. But unless they are just CERTAIN about a few question marks, go out and grab a BP arm, or two. The payroll is only $150M ish. STOP being foolish about Pagan, and learn from previous lessons. Move him or DFA for for Fulmer or similar. I don't think they are done yet, but I like most of what they have done to this point.

Ted's OP is prospects to DEBUT for the first time. And that's the key. Even in very SSS we've seen a bunch of the current 40 man do so. And I think Elliot is correct when he states you can pretty much forget anyone not currently on the 40 man roster, barring trades. And even without that rather obvious criteria...and the 40 man is pretty well stacked to be honest...the choice is CLEARLY Julien. Signed too late in 2019 to play, and no 2020, college draftee or not, his development and production has skyrocketed him through the system in TWO YEARS. He was great in 2021, dominate in 2022, and was "cheated" out of MVP in the recent AFL season, still earning the nice "breakout player" award. Still looking for a defensive "home", you find room for a hitter with all of his potential and ability. Very good chance he, more or less, swaps places with Arraez as an OK defensive player at a few spots, and sess time at DH, so he can be in the lineup most days. He won't hit like Arraez, or have the same uncanny ability to avoid K's like him, but will walk more, and have more power and speed. (Better knees, one would think). I wouldn't be shocked if he broke camp, but I don't see the room for him, as the roster stands today. And I don't think the Twins will want to push him that fast, wanting him to get some AAA time before promotion. But he's just got to be #1 on the list. The remaining options, as listed, I don't have a problem with, in general. It all seems to make sense. The exception might be Balazovic. I still have a lot of faith in him after a single nightmare season. The talent is still there, the potential is still there, and sometimes s**t happens and just goes wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if they guarded him a bit and let Winder/SWR/Varland get time before him to just give him all the time he needs to get right. DARKHORSE CANDIDATE: Don't sleep on the older Helman to get a shot at some time as a super utility RH bat with pop and speed and some bat ability to be a fill in player at some point in 2023.

Who do I WANT to bat leadoff? That would be Julien almost literally replacing Arraez on the roster as a utility player and DH. While he fits best at 2B...and played there exclusively in 2022 when not as a DH...he has some experience at 1B and LF. While he'll never hit like Arraez, or SO at such an insanely low level, he will walk more and provides more power and speed. His ability to walk as much as he does tells me he can thrive early without being close to reaching his ceiling at the ML level. He beat up on AA ball and destroyed the AFL. But even with a strong ST, he probably won't be pushed that quickly. Also, unless Kepler is moved, or someone is hurt, I don't see room to begin the season with the Twins. What makes the most SENSE? Various combinations depending on the daily lineup and matchups. Buck is just not the leadoff hitter type everyone thought he would be when drafted. He's a dangerous power plant who should be hitting with runners OB, anywhere from 1-4 probably. Polanco could probably do the job quite well. But he's also been such a quality run producer where he's been at that I think it would be a mistake to place him there. IMO, that means a LH combination of Gordon and Larnach, with a splash of Gallo. You have to remember that if Gallo DOES revert back to his very recent Texas self, he's pretty good at OB and being a dangerous power option in that spot. And one out doesn't have to kill an inning he leads off. And...get ready for it...IF Kepler isn't moved, and IF he suddenly finds the ability to drive the ball again instead of soft contact, and with the changes in the shift helping him even a little, he's not a K machine, will take some walks, runs the bases well, and Rocco has used him there previously. From the RH side, I see Farmer and the catcher of the day, especially Jeffers, who rakes against LHP. Remember, the Twins used to play Garver a lot in the #1 spot. Getting OB at a decent clip is important. But the #1 hitter isn't guaranteed to actually lead off an inning but once a game. So what you're looking for is someone who can provide a "spark" in that spot between getting OB, advancing runners ANY WAY POSSIBLE, and knocking in runners on base ahead of you from the bottom of the order, or helping perpetuate an inning, which is much the same as advancing the runners. And that's why it isn't so crazy to play matchups until SOMEONE comes along to grab that #1 spot. For all the "absurdity" that someone like Gallo could be considered, his GOOD YEARS still has a low BA and high K rate, but he also has great power to produce and high BB numbers to give him a good OB%. Imagine him in that spot with a runner OB and he cranks a HR. Imagine he walks instead and now the likes of Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Miranda are up. Now, of course, he might whiff or hit a lazy fly ball. But isn't that true of anyone/everyone most of the time? I don't WANT Kepler at #1 unless he turns himself around. I'm not advocating Gallo in that spot, but I'd like him, or even Larnach, RIGHT NOW, over the Kepler from the past 2 seasons. I WANT someone like Julien or possibly Martin...who I don't think is as close to being READY...to provide all "all encompassing" offensive game for that spot. But as of RIGHT NOW, I say NO-ONE takes that spot and it will be a moving and matchup position. And that makes the most sense to me.

Huge Kepler fan. Been rooting for the kid since he was signed and has been one of my favorite players. Even still I can see his time with the Twins is probably coming to an end. With Larnach, Wallner, Martin, and possibly Lewis you have younger, less expensive options that are likely to be better offensive players based on what Max has done the past 2yrs, and most of his career, ignoring that great 2019. Again, huge fan. Always wanted him to reach All Star status. He's a nice ballplayer. But just a glimpse and brief overview of his career page on any site will show you he's an average producer for his career. I hope the more limited shift will help him. I really do. But it's only going to give him maybe a dozen more hits if he can't figure out how to hit the ball hard again. Strong, athletic, still young, where did his power go to? But there's no need to rush on a trade of Max, unless the deal is just too good to pass up. Larnach will get time in both corners and DH. Wallner wouldn't be hurt with a little more refinement time in St Paul. If Gallo doesn't become his old self again, keeping Kepler has given you more options. If Gallo does become his old self again, and Krilloff isn't ready yet, Gallo helps cover 1B and again Kepler is providing depth options. I do think Kepler is gone fairly soon. I just don't know if it's now, mid season, or the end of the season. But I think its OK to not rush things either.

Interesting idea. What SHOULD happen is a signing by a team not expected to contend and then use him for a trade to someone needing pen help, IF he's healthy and productive again. The 40 man is really crowded for the Twins right now. Other than maybe Pagan, I can't think of any obvious drop candidate to take a ML flier on Reyes. I'd much rather sign a more known arm such as Fulmer and offer Reyes a invite on a milb if nobody steps up. However, I do want to remind that once things get rolling, the Twins have 3 probably 60 day IL candidates. So if a reliever like Reyes was still sitting there late, that changes the entire thought process about taking that flier.

Love the new uniforms. Hate the "M" hat. Love the tri-colored batting helmet coming back.. had forgotten all about them. Good move!

Absolutely! Maximize his talent. But I'm just saying he CAN be great virtually anywhere. But if either Larnach or Wallner prove they belong with the bat, and can play solid defense, (Still betting on Larnach), I just like the cannon arm in RF with Lewis in LF and covering CF as well as still being able to play the INF. I'm just seeing him in LF instead of RF for one of those other two options on a daily basis.

I always love reading prospect lists as they are entertaining, provide conversation, and at times I go "oh yeah! I forgot about this DSL kid!". The problem with such lists is giving greater weight to potential, despite someone being so young and at a lower level and further away, VS, someone who is older, closer, but maybe not quite as "talented". And while the Twins have traded away...and graduated...some good talent, I firmly agree/believe this system is not exactly barren of talent. But there is a bit of discrepancy between the top and bottom levels, with the middle suffering a bit. A really good list, and debates about such remain subjective. Nevertheless, I've got to offer up a few thoughts/opinions. NOAH MILLER: Sorry, the glove and eye play. But even as young as he is, and maybe because of that, but until I see a better hit tool and a little more power, I just can't rank him as high as you do. MARCO RAYA: He was the ONLY 2020 draft selection I really liked. From stuff to attitude, I've always seen him as Berrios-esque, but with maybe a better breaker at a similar age. But despite his limited college IP, and coming off his surgery, I just have to slot him behind Priellip. The equally great breaker, similar velocity, better length, what he DID DO at the college level, apparently fully recovered but obviously needing work and IP, I've just got to rank Priellip ahead of Raya right now. EDOUARD JULIEN: I'm 100% with you on this kid! I don't think a lot of people understand who he is or what he's done thus far. He was a later pick due to signing issues. IIRC, that was partially due to a down season. And he got big $ of a much higher pick to sign, but way too late to play in 2019. And then he had to sit out 2020. His 2021 "rookie" season was great. His 2022 was even better. And while the AFL is known as an offensive league as few top pitching prospects usually attend, he put up RIDICULOUS numbers all the same. He won the "BREAKOUT PLAYER" award, which is nice, but also silly. I can't recall all the numbers, but he was basically top 3 in EVERY offensive category except HR and RBI, which the eventual MVP held. (Head shake on that one still). Julien played all over the field in 2021. The Twins had him concentrate on 2B in 2022. Professionally speaking, he's young. Despite being a good athlete, he might just never be great at any position. But you DO MAKE ROOM for a hitter like him. I've stated previously he's an Arraez-like player. He might K more, and never hit for a high an AVG, but he's got more power, more speed, probably have a higher OB, and should be as good, or better, of a table setter EVENTUALLY. But is a 2B option to move on from Polanco? Or does 2B belong to Lee or Lewis? Like Arraez, I think he needs to be a DH/utility player who can be OK at a couple different spots. LOUIE VARLAND: Not sure where your angst comes from, but you may have watched more of him than I got to see. So I can't argue with your debate placing him this high. His milb numbers pretty much rock, and his 5 GS at the end of 2022 look pretty good for a rookie debut. And I'm sure he still, has things to work on, as all rookies do. But he sure wasn't destroyed in his brief 2022 debut. Are you certain you just weren't looking for more? SWR: Yeah. Wasn't a big fan of his despite recognizing the kid has had one of the strangest early careers I've ever seen. Despite being a top draftee and on various top prospect lists, he's been traded twice already. And he's also been placed VERY EARLY at high levels. And then he has the whole Olympics experience where he doesn't appear, but has his season and development interrupted. But I've championed the kid despite conflicting reports he has this, but doesn't have this, and it made me wonder just who the hell this kid was actually supposed to be? And in 2022, I think we started to see something. I now agree with his ranking. The very best that could happen for him is to spend most, or all, of 2023 ar St Paul, work on his game, let the game "come to him" and figure it out. He's still so damn young. AUSTIN MARTIN: Move to the OF, find an approach at the plate and be comfortable. He can still cover 2B/3B, which he knows, but quit messing around with him. His late 2022 production and AFL performance notwithstanding, he's out of my top 10 until I see the bat fully start to develop. JORDON BALAZOVIC: Sorry Twins, I don't buy he was healthy. I think his mechanics were botched up due to his knee, compensating, and mechanics and confidence were shot. He was better his last few turns. I get your rating, and it's probably fair at this point. But he might also be the biggest riser once the season starts and he proves to be 100%. LASTLY.... MATT CANTERINO: Along with AK, Lewis, and Larnach, Canterino is the most disappointing injury frustration in the entire system. He might be at the front of the rotation to begin 2023 if his arm was healthy. The biggest BITE to all of this is he didn't have any significant injuries in college and the Twins were careful with his debut. Considering the results of recovery from TJ surgery, even with time to get control back, I still wouldn't place him 26 on your list. He's either going to be a "late" arriving SP with great stuff and potential to carry it in his late 20's and early 30's, OR, he's going to transition to being a real BP weapon. I'd be betting on pure talent and not place him this low. NOTES: Severino was still good at AA. He might be about to fully break out. The Twins have the potential of Carmago at AA and have drafted 5 catchers in the past 2 drafts and Cardenas might be the best of them all at this point. Hopefully, a year from now, we might be looking at 2-4 catchers in the system that are worthy of top 30 prospect lists.

Not disagreeing with you. I can look in my muddy crystal ball and see Lewis at 2B, 3B, LF, RF, and still able to play CF as you've stated. And we still have Lee, and maybe Julien, to fit in to the 2B/3B equation. (Personally, despite Julien focusing on 2B in 2022, I see him being used as a DH and utility player at a handful of positions where he will never be beyond average, but OK, and get his bat in the lineup). But until/unless Martin starts to fulfill his promise as a top of the order bat in LF/CF...who still might be able to cover 3B/2B some...I think I like Lewis better in LF, IF he's moved out of the infield. He's got the wheels to cover all that territory, as well as a solid arm. I just see one of Larnach or Wallner...decent athletes though not great...with their cannon arms taking over RF. And I see that soon, probably to begin 2024, if not sooner.

The ship has sailed on Lewis and Lee being SS for the Twins. And it's not because they aren't great talents with the ability to be good there. But Correa has that spot locked down for at least 4yrs, if not longer. But I believe each can, and probably will, be fill ins at SS when Correa is out of the lineup. As talented as he may be, and as well as he performed while so young, I think Salas in the top 10 is accurate, though I'm only familiar with him just recently after the trade. I might slot him at 9, behind Julien, only because of age and closeness to the ML level, and some doubts about growing out of the SS position. But a single place or two is fungible. If the milb listed numbers are correct and he's a full 6' 2" and 191 lbs at 19 1/2 years old right now, I can envision growth being an issue to remain at SS. He's also young enough that the proverbial "man muscle" might be more a continued maturation of his body without going past 200lbs. And he might stick around that weight with his height and frame. Developing power isn't always bulking up and weight gain. Sometimes it's replacing a little "young man" body fat with muscle, naturally toning up, and learning to use the strength you have. He sure sounds like an intriguing young prospect, and a potential steal as the 2nd piece in this deal. But wherever he does end up playing, you can never have too much talent. I'd wager that half of the ML 2B/3B/OF probably played SS in HS as they were the most talented athlete on the field. But I just about do a spit-take every time I hear something about Lewis, or player X, being a waste of talent by not staying at SS and moving elsewhere. How many examples of truly great ballplayers could we name who moved to those other positions? It's YTBD where Lewis ends up on a daily basis. But if he becomes a top 2B/3B or OF with hit/OB/Power/Speed and good to excellent defense, who cares if he could have been a solid SS when you have someone like Correa managing that spot?

A very nice breakdown on Lopez and the drop in the 2nd half I had heard about but was unsure of as to the reason. I would much rather have a pitcher needing to re-slot his FB delivery to gain back his effectiveness than trying to figure out delivery issues with his best breaking ball, or his change. It fills me with more optimism as to what Lopez might bring to the rotation. I still have a hard time projecting a 26yo...even coming off his best overall year...as jumping to #1 status simply because I believe in experience being such a factor in all pitchers, but especially for those who do achieve that front line status. I've long maintained that despite talent and stuff, there is a point where something "clicks" in certain guys where they just KNOW how to use their stuff better in certain situations. I know questions remain for most of the rotation. And I don't know that I can predict a single arm to really be that #1 guy for 2023. I mean, Gray was rushing to get ramped up and then had hamstring issues. But with a normal offseason and normal ST, he could easily be the Twins best starter. If Mahle's own personal diagnosis is correct that he just threw too much, too hard, etc, too early after the weird offseason and short ST and he really doesn't have anything wrong physically, (which a pair of MRIs say is true), he could be out best. But with the information revealed here in the OP, I can see the potential for Lopez to emerge as the Twins #1 for 2023. Maybe not approaching ACE status, but I can see the path to him being the #1.

Julien is also faster than Arraez. The comparison between Julien and Arraez is apt when talking about offense and where they might hit in the lineup, and various similarities and differences in their potential contributions. But Arraez and Julien could/can both DH as well as play some 2B. No knock on Arraez...who I love...but Julien has the potential to be better at 2B due to better knees and probably being a little more athletic overall. The fact that Julien didn't play 2B last year, and hasn't yet at the ML level, is of no concern to me at this point. They compare in other ways. And not only can Julien still end up laying some 1B at the ML level, but he did spend 21 games there in 2021 while in the minors. So I believe his defensive positioning and value are yet to be determined.

I think Fulmer is a victim of his own success. As a former ROY he's been a disappointment. But his transition to the pen is running on 2yrs now. And while not a STOPPER or FIREMAN he's been pretty good in his new role. As smart as ML FO are supposed to be, he's seen as a middle guy. Not worthy of a $6M yr or $12M 2yr deal. But the numbers say he's worth that. And just turning 30yo, SOMEBODY is going to look at him eventually and realize he's a sold 6th-7th inning arm who might even pitch an 8th inning here and there. I am honestly shocked and perturbed the Twins haven't already pounced on him for a deal.

You are 100% right on Buxton and his approach. Former Twin and intelligent, experienced player and Podcaster/radio head Trevor Plouffe has commented that one of the best things the current FO has done in regard to the mikb system has been treating every player as an individual rather than trying to force everyone in to a collective of hitting approach. IIRC correctly, Rowson was the hitting coach in 2019. I don't recall the hitting coach after him right now, but MAYBE they have "tinkered" with him too much. Maybe he's gotten stuck/stubborn on his approach? But it's up to the current coaching staff, if he's kept, to make the RIGHT adjustments. I've heard he's tried really hard to "do the right thing" and attempt to hit the other way and such. Maybe he just needs to be told to "swing away" while trusting his instincts. IMO, were I Popkins, I would ask him to do what feels natural. DON'T ignore previous instruction that tells you that you can shorten up your swing and slash something to LF. But STOP obsessing about it. Do what is natural. Hit the crap out of a ball in your zone and see what happens. Just don't worry about hits, and focus on hard contact on a pitch you like. Drive that baby for a single, double, or HR. But quit feeling you have to be PERFECT at every AB. I think being a leadoff hitter and 2019 messed with his approach. IMO, he's been trying to be too perfect as a hitter.

While I'm an eternal optimist, and liking this offseason more and more, I agree that Ted might be going out on a bit of a limb here. But then again, I think what he's trying to examine is the construction of both teams headed in to the season, and not declaring the 2023 Twins are prepared to hit or surpass 101 wins. There are a lot of IF's to be proven for the 2023 squad, but there were also a lot of them for the 2019 team as well. And while it's an interesting coincidence that both teams were/are coming off 78 wins the previous season, the 2022 Twins were in 1st place in the Central for most of the season until early August. And I don't think that can be easily dismissed as part of the equation. A more relevant point is how much better this team might be compared to the beginning roster of 2022. But, alas, that's a different topic. Regarding the roster to BEGIN 2019 vs 2023...as of today...along with potential production: CATCHER: A close push. Defense, game calling, etc, probably similar. Vazquez is no slouch with the bat, and Jeffers has flashed what he can still be. Jeffers is still young and only about 550 ML AB. I doubt we see an offensive explosion like Garver had, but combined totals might end up close. EDGE: 2019 INFIELD: Sano had a big year. Can Miranda start to fulfill all the potential we've seen the last 2yrs? He will probably be the equivalent defensively. Probably less HR, but better AVG. Correa is absolutely an upgrade at SS over Polanco, and that's not a shot at JP. And speaking of Polanco, someone stated earlier he's about done. PLEASE! He's only 29yo, a fine 2B, and was one of the Twins best producers in 2022 before injuries knocked him down and eventually out. He's a terrific player still. I know it's still a big IF hanging over the Twins head, but if the early reports about AK are accurate, we're going to finally see him start to reach his potential. Having Farmer as a really nice utility piece and Gordon able to slip in here and there offers a lot of flexibility. EDGE: 2023 with Correa, Polanco at 2B, and Kirilloff finally able to start playing up to his potential. OUTFIELD: Buxton has begun to explode and is a better player now than then. As of now, Kepler is a "what" if he remains a Twin. Gallo is also a huge question mark. Is he the 2022 version? Or the previous 6 seasons before version? Larnach, Gordon, and even Taylor provide greater depth and flexibility than 2019 had. Rosario was good, Kepler had a special year. EDGE: 2019 for now. But the depth and versatility of 2023 is better. Gallo being his previous self, the improvement of Buxton, the potential of Larnach, having Gordon maturing and the addition of Taylor makes 2023 potentially as good, or better and deeper. ROTATION: With all due respect to Berrios...and I was a big fan...and others involved, the 1-9 of 2023 is just better and deeper. Enough said. EDGE: 2023 BULLPEN: The Twins cobbled a 2019 bullpen together with a couple really good arms and duct tape and bailing wire. Romo was a huge addition at the break. Combined, they ended up with a good pen that supported the staff/team. But looking at the 2023 pen as of today, depth options, and the opportunity to maybe/probably add at least 1 more arm, this simply has the look of a better and deeper pen. EDGE: 2023 The WILD CARD between the two teams, lineup/offensively is Cruz at DH. With no disrespect, I think his leadership is replaced by Correa, the growing Buxton, Vazquez, and even Gray for "taking charge" of the pitchers. And since the Twins won't have a FIXTURE at DH in 2023, there is no way to truly examine his bat in 2019 vs 2023 since a deeper roster will mean DH is given over to the collection of what is a deeper roster with greater flexibility to fill that role. And I'm NOT dismissing his production. But the 2019 Twins didn't have Buxton DHing, or have Larnach, or the POTENTIAL of Gallo, or a Gordon or Farmer filling in, etc, making DH a revolving position. Indiana Twin is 100% correct in stating games are played on the field vs a computer screen. But if you examine the 2 Twins teams, as offered up in the OP, the 2023 Twins are probably better defensively. The entire pitching staff is deeper from top to bottom even without any other additions. Offensively, how do you predict a season that hasn't started yet? On paper, the 2023 Twins look to have at least as good, or better, of a lineup and better depth than 2019. If you choose to look at the RESULTS of the 2019 season, fun as it was, career years across the board, live ball in play, a HR record that may never be broken, then yes, the 2023 offense is going to fall short, possibly very short. I had some of the most fun I've ever had as a Twins fan for 50yrs in 2019 and 2020. And nothing will ever take that away from me. But things change, including the baseball....damnit MLB....and what we're really talking about is the construction of the roster between those 2yrs. As well as the construction of the 2023 roster vs the 2022 version. EVERY SINGLE YEAR is different than the year before. That's one of the beautiful parts of baseball. I've stated my opinions because it was FUN to do so. We might as well have discussed the 2023 team vs 1987 or 1991 versions. But the ONLY thing that really matters is ARE THE 2023 TWINS BETTER THAN THE 2022 VERSION? And I'm sure we will have an OP on that very soon. FWIW, I think they are. Other than that, I'm looking forward, and not behind. ***But it was fun to compare.

Agreed. That's part of why he has real value to someone out there, along with a potential turnaround in his offense. But that's also what's so damn frustrating about Max. He walks, does K a ton, runs the bases well, makes contact, and has shown in the past he's a legitimate 30+ doubles hitter with high teens and 20HR power. I can fully accept 2019 and the juiced ball as being an outlier. But even with a juiced ball, you still have to hit the ball hard with some kind of launch angle in order to hit all those HR. How on earth does such a sweet swing from a strong, athletic man like Kepler turn in to pop-ups and weak grounders the past 2yrs? And that's part of his appeal, right? To other teams OR the Twins keeping him. The shift changes will only help him for a dozen or so base hits, by speculation/projection. But if he could figure out how to hit the ball HARD again, suddenly you have 50+ XBH to go along with the defense. Not trying to derail the OP, but that's what needs to happen and what everyone is banking on.

IF Kepler is moved...and I'm agreeing more and more that he's being kept...there are two areas I would like to see addressed in a return that makes the most sense to me: 1] A quality 7th inning RP that might even be good/proven enough to pitch the 8th once in a while. At worst, I'd like a hot, young bullpen arm ready to graduate from AAA. BUT, why do that when Fulmer is still sitting there? 2] A young A+ or AA SP with a live arm who's got a real future but is probably a year or two away. Keep adding to the system when guys like Lopez and Paddack may be about to move on, though, of course, re-signings are still possible. These two options would make the most sense to me.

I was surprises and disappointed he wasn't brought up around August of last year when injuries decimated the team. There were days when the starting OF was Cave, Gordon, and Contreras. And that was even against a LHSP! They even ran Beckham out to the OF a few times. Still no clue why Helman wasn't brought up. He may be a little long on the tooth for a top prospect, not have any single, dominating skill, but he was having probably his finest year and just sat in AAA while the OF was a mismatched MASH unit. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if he turns out to be the Twins 28th-30th man on the roster at some point in 2023.

No way Celestino isn't in St Paul to work on his game. Larnach is the probable replacement, playing both OF corners and even DHing once in a while. All of this is assuming 100% health, of course. Sure would be nice to leave ST 100% for a change, and stay that way for more than a few games. But assuming that 100% health, I just have such a hard time not having Ober in the rotation. But if he is, indeed, bumped, does he go to St Paul and stay stretched out? Or does he go to the pen and provide that middle/long arm that is missing with the OP roster? And if he goes to St Paul to stay stretched out, does Winder/Sands/Henriquez make the club instead of someone else to provide that middle/long arm? Guess I'm saying that even if the Twins don't add another BP arm....and I think they might...I'm not sure I buy the above projection without that one stretched arm that was so lacking last season. I'm starting to think Kepler just might remain a Twin, despite all the rumors and speculation to the contrary the past few months. I just have this feeling in my gut that there's going to be one more signing or trade before all is said and done. Potential crazy surprise to the roster? Martin or Julien just looks so good that they somehow sneak on the roster and provide some missing OB% that we lost with the Arraez trade.