DocBauer

1} Unless he's just really up for a new challenge and really wants to stick at SS, he's going to veto a trade to the Twins to stay with his only known team. 2} The Twins sure aren't going to pay $16M for 1yr of a defense first SS with a questionable bat. They MIGHT be willing to pay half of that. But even if SF eats half of his salary, the Twins aren't going to want to give up much for said 1yr of a defense first, questionable bat SS, even if he is a good guy and leader type. 3} Let's just say he agrees, the Giants eat half his deal, and it costs the Twins very little to get him. On that basis, I'm OK with the idea. It allows the Twins to use Farmer in a super utility role that he seems well suited for and deepens the bench and lineup. In fact, if Swanson isn't brought on board...and I'm not sure I want him at this point...I wouldn't mind another SS OR another utility type brought in...with a decent bat...to deepen the bench and lineup. But I don't see this as a likely option.

The system isn't depleted of talent, though it's split between AAA and then A ball. But it's not depleted. And the upcoming draft should/could add some very nice talent. And trades are a good way to augment your team. But as a mid market team, you need to hold on to and develop as much of your talent as you can. Position wise, the system looks pretty good. Things don't look as strong pitching wise...though there have been a few encouraging arms to reach the ML level the past 2yrs...due to injury, poor performance, and possibly by being too focused on position players. But FA SHOULD be part of the equation, even if we're not talking about a $300M type. And there are always good players available that aren't the TOP FA on the market. The last offseason is a perfect example where there were arms way better than Archer and Bundy. But they seemed so focused on the Buxton extension that they just ignored the market. I am not going to get in to a debate about the Twins ownership and spending. While I think it's easy, and maybe accurate, to say they bring in more $ from the Twins than we know/speculate. Even when comparing other mid market organizations, it's still almost impossible to know how things like TV and radio deals affect available $ to spend. And I would have no right to demand a business not make a profit from their team. Conversely, I think there are owners out there who view their sports teams as a "hobby" and could hardly care about profits vs the fun and ego of winning. Now, that doesn't always work year to year. We can see that with WS wins from KC and Atlanta the past few years vs disappointing results for the Dodgers, Mets, etc. But FA HAS to be a part of your approach. Even if you can't ever, or hardly ever, swim in the deep end of the pool, you can still target some very good players that you CAN add to augment what you have and build the very best OVERALL TEAM that you can put together. I don't know that the Twins are adverse to playing in FA, but just waiting for value won't get it done. They need to target the 1 or 2 they really like/want/need and THEN play the waiting game for additional value.

Can I like this a second time?

Repeating what I said in another thread, I'm mostly upset with myself for believing there was an actual chance. I knew the moment he signed last year he was opting out and was almost certainly gone. But when nobody jumped in with some crazy offer and I saw the Twins at 10yrs and $285M with opt outs giving Correa all the power he could ever want, I really thought there was a chance. I don't think the Twins offer was unreasonable or low-ball in any way. And THEN I saw what others were signing for and just knew this wasn't going to turn out well. I'm not upset at the Twins offer. On the contrary, it was a HUGE and fair initial offer. All the terms and AAV were right there with Boegarts and Turner. But I DO AGREE that once things got under way, the offer should have started with a "3". Now, that doesn't mean $350! And yes, we can argue and debate all we want to about how much the Twins could spend if they wanted to, etc, and beat that dead horse. But I see no way they would ever spend $350M on someone. Frankly, I don't know if I can think of anyone other than about 5-6 teams that would or could. But I ALSO AGREE with the basic principle that once things looked like they were going to get crazy, time to just pull out, pivot, and get to building your team the best you can. Actually, it's very early in the offseason. It's still something like 2 full months until ST starts. BUT, unlike most years, everyone has decided to make offers and sign early instead of waiting. So it being "early" doesn't offer any excuses. I actually like most of what the current FO has done from re-building the system from the ground up, to a majority of their draft selections, and even a number of trades and signings. But where they started to lose my trust was last offseason when the market was ripe with opportunity to add and all we came away with was Bundy, Archer, and Smith before Correa dropped in to our laps. And now, this offseason, waiting around while the baseball world passes them by, has me losing additional faith in them. I haven't lost all faith. I'm not asking them to be removed. But my confidence has been slipping beginning last offseason and continues to slip.

However, I believe Myers hits RH's better. He's also better defensively and it sure appears to be healthier than Garlick year to year.

I'm probably most upset because as this drug on, I had almost convinced myself the Twins had a real shot to keeping him. Shame on me! I knew he was gone the minute he signed last year. But I don't blame the Twins. Boegarts, Turner, and Correa are very similar players in talent, quality, and production. Correa just happens to be a couple years younger. The 10yrs and $285M the Twins offered is commensurate to what Boegarts and Turner received, and equal or greater AAV. And they even offered Correa full control over the deal to opt out at different times to pursue something different/better if he wanted. So how is the offer to Correa cheap or in no way serious on the Twins part??? I wouldn't doubt that if Boras came back to the Twins and said: "Look, the Giants are in for 10yrs and $300M, will you be willing to bump an extra $15M?" that the FO would jump at it. I mean, even for the Twins, an extra $1.5M per for 10yrs is do-able. But that's not what we're talking here. We're talking $350M!! The Giants can afford to play the years of service game and just eat $15-25M per for the last 4-6yrs as a sunk/lost cost. There's just no way the Twins, or any mid-market team, IMO, can just be willing to eat that kind of yearly dead $. Could the Twins have front loaded the deal more and bumped to...oh, I don't know...maybe $310-$315M? Yes, they could have, though it would have hurt and would have at least slightly affected payroll the first couple of years. But this whole deal isn't about the Twins not going a 6th year and another $25M to a FA pitcher. This was an extra $65M bump over 10years. And way more than what Boegarts and Turner got. It sinks. I would have liked him back for a number of reasons. I think the Twins, if given the chance, would have sweetened the deal a little bit. But the Giants offer and way of staggering it is just not something the Twins could do financially. And only a handful of franchises/markets could do so. I'm not crying cheap or weak on the Twins in this case.

Interesting that Kepler is part of your OP. And I will come back to that. I've stated a few times previously that what was old sometimes comes back around again as new. Witness the Rpyals a few years ago winning with a solid staff and great pen. Similar to many team's approach currently, even the Twins. They had a handful of very good players and pressured teams with speed and defense. That was more "old school" of a way to play. In today's ML baseball of 3 outcome hitters, I can see a team looking that direction as a way of "attacking" other teams. Hence the A's valuing Ruiz more than others for speed and defense in a "new/old" approach. But let me also say this; I am unconvinced the larger bases will do anything to increase the run game until I see otherwise. Larger bases only increases the differences between bases by 3 inches! And some might say, "But Doc, those 3 inches on close plays could be huge!". I'd argue, if the 2B or SS are where they are supposed to be, and the throw is on target...which is ALWAYS the case on a SB attempt...the position player is an inch and a half CLOSER to making the tag than before! So will an inch and a half really make that much of a difference? I like the pitch clock. But that shouldn't make a difference. But limited throws to 1B MIGHT be a difference maker that I don't think the larger bags will. Pitchers are going to have to pay more attention to runners at 1B and make at least subtle adjustments. But let's be honest, half the throws to 1B are just stealing time between pitches thrown. But then again, unless a team has a boatload of speed, limited tosses might be irrelevant. Now, if teams are finally starting to understand a 3 outcome situation only goes so far, it explains interest in hitting and OB machines like Arraez gaining value, hence trade speculation. Back to Kepler. His defense is outstanding. Along with possible changes in offensive approaches, I can see teams starting to value defense again, to counter the 3 outcome scenarios as they can. A solo HR is better than a 2 run shot, or a speedy runner taking 2B. Again, old becomes new. The pitching changes and limitations on the shift MIGHT change the game to some degree, but I don't see wholesale changes just due to new rules. I mean, a slow team/player will still be slow. Teams can still play a shift in the OF and the infield. They just can't 3 infielders on one side or create a "rover" in the OF. Will that be enough for someone like Kepler to make a difference? Well, it COULD if someone like Max would hit hard line drives and not top the ball for weak grounder. But like Arraez, and his special talents, I can see Kepler having value to a team looking for defense and hopes that he suddenly re-diacovers hitting the ball hard again. From the Twins perspective, Arraez is an important part of their lineup. And I'd really hate to see him go. Especially since kids like Martin and Julien and maybe Lee and Lewis aren't ready yet to replace him as they may be similar. But I get the trade value. I think Kepler is easier to replace...even though I'm a long time fan and love his defense...as I think Larnach and Wallner can both bring the arm needed for RF, even with a little less defense at this time, but better offense. It's a balancing act. Long post, lots to say and address. It's a complicated subject you brought up Brian.

I think the Twins are definitely out on Rodon if Correa signs. Considering "rumors" of 6-7yrs and $180-200M for Rodon, the Twins might be out even without Correa in the fold. The Twins DON'T need to sign some back end SP at this point, thankfully. My "hunch meter" says the FO likes their existing rotation and expect better health with a normal ST, and feel depth is finally here. And if they want to add, a trade is the best option as it won't be someone with a $20-30M per deal, hence why they've passed up other options. So far, as probably expected, bullpen arms are just sitting there. And there might be value in the "patience" mode the FO likes. But I'm interested in Eovaldi if he's sitting there in a couple of weeks. He's not great by any means, and his career numbers reflect that. But when healthy he's flashed. If he comes cheap, I'd be interested in adding him for what he CAN do when healthy and right. But other than cheap and looking for some kind of 1yr or 1+1 deal, I don't think I see a fit. I think the FO looks at the trade route to add, if they add at all.

Narvaez, despite a couple bad years, has a better career quad slash line and more power. His LH bat would be nice to have for balance sake. I would have been happy to have him. But the more I've read, heard, and thought about this I'm very pleased. Vazquez is still an average to slightly better than average bat for a catcher. So while he's still a #8-9 hitter, he's by no means bad at all. But what's way more important is his experience, leadership, defense, and clubhouse presence. Forgetting Correa for a moment, the Twins have $ to spend and need to spend it. And this was a serious need that needed to be addressed and was done so in a solid fashion. But they can't stop now. This team still needs a quality RH bat to be added, even with a possible Correa signing. Even more so if they don't. I understand calls for a SP and RP, and I get that. But when you look at the roster, a RH bat in the OF has been a glaring problem for years now. They need balance and depth and options. The various times of offensive futility in 2022 show that. They should, IMO, jump on someone like Wil Myers immediately for something, hopefully, around $10-12M for 2-3yrs. He fits the need very well. And you can't stop adding while waiting for Correa. Happy as can be with Vazquez. But don't stop adding now FO. You still have $ and need.

I think St Paul could have a really good staff this upcoming season, but just like the Twins, they need depth due to injuries and promotions. I think both of these signings are less than inspiring, but depth is needed, and once in a while you catch lightning. Wisler to smaller degree and Thielbar to a much greater degree.

Sad isn't it? If the Twins have actually offered a $300M deal to Correa to play ball in a city/organization he wants to be in and it's still not enough for his family and his future generations of family. The numbers we spit out are obscure to the general populace. I still have hope it's enough to make it happen.

Ryan, with 20/20 hindsight and reports, never pushed the envelope. In fact, he commented he was never turned down for $, and seemed to take pride in the fact he never spent as much as he could have. And I have tremendous respect for TR, so I'm not throwing shade his way. I'm just saying as good as he was, as good of a job as he did, at least in his 1st turn as GM, the financial game within the game passed him by. Simply making a point and ABSOLUTELY NOT going to get in to some eternal debate about ownership spending. The current FO seems willing to push the envelope and spend. And when it didn't work out, the switched gears and spent a different way. And even when they went a different direction and it didn't work out...see the mentioned Lynn and Morrisson signings....even the pundits initially hailed the moves. Our current FO has made mistakes. And some moves haven't turned out. But they haven't been afraid to try things and push the previous envelope. But Ted suggests a change in MO that I've been on my own soapbox for a while now. It's OK, and even smart, to take a patient approach to things like FA and see what value drops in your lap. It may not always work out, but it does at times. Witness Cruz, Marwin, Correa, a few arms that worked, and some that should have. But you can't, even as a mid market team, ONLY play the waiting game! As smart and observent as we all may be as amateur GM's, there is still so much we don't know, and will never know, as to the information and machinations of heading a FO. But at times, things just appear so obvious that it's perfectly fine to call out the decision makers in place. As an example, it seems fair to look back at 2022 and feel the FO was so fixated on the Buxton extension...which turned out fair or cheap, a different debate...and they simply ignored a flush market of pitching that passed them by and they ended up with Bundy and Archer only. While there is ZERO guarantee signing a "better" arm would have lead to success, those combined salaries could have garnered ONE SP with potential vs a couple "hopeful" signings. Right now, they are so focused on Correa, the market is slipping away. Even if they don't want to add to the rotation with some of the ridiculous numbers being offered and agreed on...and I get it...they have seemingly ignored the rest of the roster yet again. You didn't want to sign Haniger for the OF due to potential vs injury risk? OK. BUT you're going to stick with Garlick as your RH OF? You signed a quality catcher that you needed. But even IF you sign Correa, why aren't you in someone like Myers to be that RH OF that's been needed for a couple years now? Despite waiting on Correa, you can't tell me the FO is so blinded by other needs that they are going to continue, again, to let opportunity slip through their hands. They just HAVE to know there is room to add Vazquez at catcher and another bat to make a complete team. And that's my biggest issue with the FO right now. Going for the "whale" is awesome! Being patient can bring great dividends, usually relief or bench options, but they need to be AGGRESSIVE early on what they need and want. GO FOR IT. Strike early if you can and THEN sit back and wait. Now, THIS offseason is different than previous ones, even more so than Buck last year. The elephant in the room is larger, and I get that. But you just can't sit around in a trophy room and wait for the next big GET. You HAVE to play around the edges to make sure you don't screw up.

Initially, this is not the move I saw. I thought Narvaez or Barnhart made sense as solid, veteran additions from the LH side considering previous MO. But I've never believed "handedness" was the most important factor in putting together a catching tandem. I will repeat my previous thoughts and echo those posted above me, this provides the staff with a quality, experienced catcher with an OK bat who also provides a mentor for Jeffers in the same way Castro did for Garver a few years ago. Vazquez has caught a lot of great pitchers, has been on winning teams, has a pair of WS rings, and is reported as a good clubhouse guy. These are important factors over and above pure batting numbers. Jeffers is still only 25yo, had a little over 500 AB, and a ton of potential. He has the ability to learn from Vazquez, maybe relax a bit more, and grow further in to his role. "Rumors" were that Vazquez wanted to be guaranteed a #1 job. Well I don't like to place too much stock in to rumors, especially in this case. Even as the potential #1 right now, easy to see a 60/40 time share. I think he signed because it's a great offer on a team that has potential. Man, I really like this signing, even if it doesn't grab headlines.

Linus, I "liked" your post because I agree with much of it. But I'm going to disagree with the idea of 2024 being a rebuild season. And I don't want to derail the thread, but I see 2024 as an interesting retooling year even IF Correa somehow comes back to the Twins. Agree there are players that need to get healthy and stay that way. Agree the system is top heavy with talent and then there is a gap down to A ball. Agree there are a variety of potential outcomes. And maybe my glasses are a little rose-tinted, but I don't see doom and gloom despite being confused and frustrated with the current offseason. (Which, of course, isn't done yet). I believe the Twins traded for Mahle with full intent on keeping him. Not so sure about Gray and Maeda, but either, I doubt both, could also be re-signed. Ryan should get better. I like Ober a lot if he can stay on the mound. They need SWR, and Varland to begin establishing themselves at the ML level. Crossing my fingers on Balazovic. Winder??? Whether it's now or next year, probably have to make a serious add via FA or trade to augment the rotation. I still see a good floor to work with. While I'm not going to expect a sudden rise from Sands, Henriquez, Headrick, Laweryson and some others, I can see a TON of middle and perhaps better relief options to join the pen and deepen it. It's, unfortunately true, that we're in a "wait and see and hope" situation with Larnach, Kirilloff, and Wallner. But there's a LOT of talent there! Lewis, Lee, Julien, Martin (OF?), and maybe even a surprise like Severino will be ready. But even with a Correa signing, these young players are going to, we suppose, keep getting better and more ready.

So, assuming no Correa, no Rodon, and probably no Swanson? 1} Vasquez or Narvaez at catcher. I guess the Twins, so far, haven't been in on Narvaez and like Barnhart more. 2} Grab Wil Myers. The OF and the lineup need his RH bat. He'll play a lot, though might not be handed an every day job. He'll PH, DH once in a while, and rotate in at LF and RF with Kirilloff (1B), Larnach, Gordon, and Wallner, even if Kepler is moved. 3} Time to snag a couple pen arms with all the money not spent on Correa. A couple 1 or 2 year deals and just ramp up the relief corps and not even worry about Alcala being back. He's just gravy at that point, and he'll be needed sooner or later. 4} Do we still sign someone like Iglesias or Andrus at SS? It frees up Farmer to be a super utility guy for us. But is it necessary at this point? 5} I don't know that there's a single rotation arm worth bringing in at this point. Do we want to trade from the roster and a prospect or two for someone like Lopez? Does that move the needle enough to make a difference? I'm not saying it doesn't, I'm just not sure. And that's why I have it at #5 on my list.

Personally, I think they are a little light on the pen. A healthy Alcala and Thielbar should raise the floor some. But I think this also shows why one more really good, solid arm ro help the 7th-8th could go a long way. I think I'd have to say they are a little light on the rotation as well. Various exams and 2 mri's show Mahle's shoulder is sound. He says weird offseason, short ST, and then trying to throw too many innings early tired his arm. I'm going with that until I see otherwise. I can buy Ober at 90IP or less if hurt. But he was healthy in 2021 and I could see 120+ in 2023 if he remains healthy again. Just hard for me to hear how good Maeda feels, how good his control was at the end of the last year while throwing on the side, see his history, and then not see him more than 90 IP. Are they a tiny bit light on Buxton? I hope so. But all in all, I can't find any major disagreements here. I just think they're a little low here and there.

The Twins are being sincere in their efforts. Reading between tight lipped comments here and there, they've offered the 10yrs and are at or almost at $300M in their offer, while including opt outs. I really hope this works, for many reasons. But the longer it drags out, the more I feel the Twins are being played for leverage and someone, probably the Giants, are just going to say "hell with it" and go $330 and the Twins are done.

I never understood the 2020 draft. IIRC, despite being short, there were some decent college arms available that year and they just bypassed pitching alltogether with the exception of Raya. And he was he one guy I really liked in that draft. Sabato I could understand as he was young, could hit, could get OB, and showed tremendous power. I wasn't crazy about the pick, but I could understand it. Boy, he sure hasn't looked all that great so far. Soulaire, good athlete, some power potential to go along with some speed, uncertain what position he should play. I can see a ballplayer there if he can stay healthy and get the reps. I think Rosario has shown the most potential of the position players thus far, holding his own at a low age and displaying power and power potential. But Raya is the only one that really excites me at the moment.

I also think 7yrs is nuts. 6yrs might be too. And I really, really like Rodon. So do the Twins as they tried to land him twice last season. And I think he's a really good fit for the Twins as well. And I'm NOT in the group that thinks Rodon is a great injury risk. I mean, really, how many SP, if any, that you sign or trade for aren't at some sort of injury risk? I think Rodon is GOOD, even VERY GOOD, but $30M per for 6 or 7yrs gives me pause. I just don't know that history makes him a $30M per arm. That being said, if Correa is off the table, I'm not saying NO to Rodon. I'd be excited if he were added. And I know some of the signings this year are just NUTS, but when I look at signings like Darvish, Wheeler, Ray, and Gausman as similar arms the past few years, I just can't believe the kind of numbers being speculated right now. And history/philosophy says they won't go beyond 5yrs. I do think the Twins system is NOT depleted or "down" to any great deal. They are top and bottom heavy with talent, with a hole in the AA range. They have a really good chance to add to the system in the 2023 draft. But a trade for a SP with 2-3yrs of control MIGHT be the better route if they don't add a Bassitt or Eovoldi on a 3-4yr deal that isn't crazy. And I don't like moving Arraez or Polanco in part of a trade with a couple of top prospects, but it might be a better route than FA at this point. I don't have an easy answer that doesn't hurt to add a SP, and I'd love to add someone for quality depth and options. But I'm almost convinced the best lineup and depth and the best bullpen, with depth, and running with what they have in the rotation right now, with a few young arms ready/nearly ready, isn't the best option.

Love the emojis! That was pretty cool! But for giggles, thought I'd address the two points you aren't 100% sold on. 1] Not going to rehash Kepler's worth in keeping or move since it's been it's been beaten to death. But whether he's in RF or moved in favor of one of the young bats, I just think they have to aim higher than Garlick. Correa...still hoping/dreaming...Miranda, Buxton and even Farmer help the lineup against LHP. For that matter, Jeffers rakes against LHP. But for whatever reason, LHP has been a real bane for the Twins. "Better than Garlick" deepens the lineup and even offers a really good PH option with a mid-game pitching change. They just need more balance in the OF. 2] I like the base of our bullpen and it's potential an awful lot, especially if Winder, Henriquez, Sands, or pitcher X...maybe from rotation depth...can provide a legitimate 2-3 inning bridge when needed. Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, and Moran, and a healthy Alcala could/should be pretty damn good with a quality long man. And for the record, For the record, I still want Pagan moved if possible instead of trying him as a middle man). And there are a few arms at St Paul that might very well help at some point. But just like the rotation, I want to have the luxury of "too many" arms than not enough. How often does a team come out of ST with all their arms 100% healthy and good and ready to go? I want to hedge my bets, if I'm the Twins. I'm not even concerned about a RH or LH arm as there are good reasons for both. But if I'm trying to really compete for the Central and more, I'm going to EXPECT someone hurt, or not ready, or off to a bad start, and I really want that one additional arm to make sure my pen is as deep and good as it can be. Thanks for the response. Again, emojis were cool!

BRILLIANT!!

1} 10yrs and $315-$330M for Correa. It's for defense, the lineup, leadership, experience, and perception with fans and the rest of the league going forward. He makes a real difference, and not just on the field. 2} Sign Vasquez for defense and handling of the staff. If you can't get it done...and you really should...then pivot quickly to Narvaez before you lose him and have to settle for someone who brings lesser overall value to the team from farther down the FA list. 3} Go sign Wil Myers to something like $12-13M per for 2 or 3yrs. He's not great, but he's good, and he's probably the best RH OF bat on the market. He'll play almost daily somewhere, really help against LH pitching, but doesn't break the bank. Plenty of room for him and Larnach/Kirilloff/Wallner/Gordon. Also, this is where Kepler is moved for roster space and $8.5M more for the budget. 4} A starting pitcher listed #4? Well, OK, how about 3B? Why so low? Because we aren't getting Rodon with Correa already on board. We at least have some good arms on board, and I see the other 3 points as important or more so. What about Bassitt? I like the idea, even though I don't like the QO attached. (Though I can't recall right now how that affects us next draft with position and new 1st round positioning, etc.). But I'd prefer Bassitt for 3yrs instead of 4, and maybe just bump him up to around $21-22M to compensate. What about Eovaldi? Is a trade, even if it's tough to let go of a couple guys, the way to go? No doubt there are options, and AAV would be lower than a FA. Regardless of who and how good, they need someone as good or better than what they have now. I don't know for sure who that might be. But FA is drying up for anyone that fits that category. 5} If points 1-4 are filled, it's time to add at least one quality arm to the pen. I just don't know that payroll would allow for a pair. And I'm not 100% sure we need more than one. But whether it's a Hand or Rogers from the LH side or someone like Fulmer from the RH side of things, I think the pen looks really good with one more quality veteran who you can trust in the 7th-8th innings.

Long standing fan of Max here, would be fine to have him back for multiple reasons, but fully understand it being time to part ways. Love to see someone like Myers brought on board as a solid, veteran RH OF, move Max, and trust in Wallner, Larnach, and Kirilloff. Sooner or later you need to get the kids in the field and at the plate on a daily basis and run with them. And as someone pointed out, you also have Gordon in the mix from the port side as well. I just have no clue what his actual worth is in regard to trade value. I mean, he frees up a roster spot for one of the younger guys, and frees up another $8.5M I believe for payroll...(come on, get rid of Pagan for another $4M-ish)...but how good of a player does Kepler bring back? A decent RP? A decent AA caliber player? He might be better as part of a package, if the right match can be found.

Way, way, way too early to speculate, though having names to watch and follow is pretty cool. I understand the Twins' philosophy of taking position players early in the draft. Special bats, outstanding athletes are usually sitting throughout the 1st round. And a hitter is probably "safer" to turn out vs an arm that just never gains control, has to shift to the pen as they simply can't master a 3rd pitch, or just plain old injured arms that never recover. And it looks like there are going to be some very good looking position players at #5 this next draft. Always pick the very best player available. Period. But at some point, you have to stretch a little bit for that big arm don't you? I don't mean a 15th pick you grab early at #5. I simply mean when you have an arm with elite potential, and a "safer" position player, sometimes I think you need to take your shot with the potentially big arm. Might this be the year?

I was going to say it looks like the Twins or the Giants unless a mystery team jumps up. Looks like the Padres might be that mystery team. IF I'm Correa and it was the Twins or Giants, and the offers are the same or really close, I'm choosing the Twins for a variety of reasons. But if I'm him, I'd be looking at the Padres with real interest. The Twins initial offer WAS HIGH and REMAINS creative as it allows Correa opt out possibilities. But as these things always play out, initial offers are just that. Did the Turner signing set the market? I'm not so sure. The Philies basically are doing the whole "Bonilla" deal on the short term by paying him a "retirement" check after he's done in 7-9yrs. So despite the total $ involved, the AAV is lower. The Twins seem more focused on higher AAV but 9-10yrs and forget some retirement payout. And I think that's smart for them. I still come back to the proposal Nick laid out a week or so ago that included opt outs and a potential guaranteed $330M. Absolutely crazy $, but granting Correa the power to look again at the market in 4yrs after earning $160M at that point, should he wish to do so. I know the financial numbers just sound CRAZY, but if the Twins opening offer was in the $280-290M area, which I believe it was, the long game to reach a $330M deal is another $4M per year. IF the Giants or Padres offer something close to 10yrs and $330M, and the Twins find a balance between their initial offer and that $330M mark, say $315-320, with opt outs, it would have to fall in the Twins favor wouldn't it? He wants to stay, the $ is still guaranteed, and he would STILL have the opportunity to opt out after 4yrs and look for something more at 32yo. It's in the Twins court to offer the best deal. And I KNOW NOTHING about these ridiculous numbers being tossed around. NO CLUE what the Giants or Padres might throw out. But if the Twins were in the ridiculous $300-320-ish range and still offering opt outs, I would think Correa and Boras would jump at that.