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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Twins Minor League Week in Review (5/10-5/16):
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I know there was a full milb season in 2021, but with the lost 2020 year and so many injuries last year, THIS YEAR actually feels "normal" to me. And that's not to dismiss the prospects who had a good and healthy 2021 at all. We're seeing a TON of position players and pitchers settling in to develop naturally. Numbers and records seem to indicate that, including a few who started slow but are starting to heat up. But a few coments: 1] I feel sorry for the Saints and attending fans because all of their best players are with the Twins right now, for the most part. GO Balazovic and AK! Some reinforcements may be coming soon. 2] Just awesome to see Enlow back! Also gives me some hope in regard to Paddack, if he needs surgery, to be ready by June or July 1st in 2023. 3] Steer and Julian could make great options for 2023. And SWR, Balazovic, Canterino are just a couple of arms that could be ready before the season is done, and especially for 2023. 4] I am BLOWN AWAY, by how many arms are at Ft Myer, CR, and Wichita, some of whom have been recently promoted. I fully understand and appreciate exactly what the FO is doing, and have been doing. They have been drafting arms with projectability with "something" they already have and working on the rest. And they haven't been afraid to draft injured arms and projecting what they could be when healthy. And i know there are so few early 20's arms who are special enough to not only make MLB, but also succeed. So age to me is not that big of a deal. So the drafting of so many college arms makes sense in so many ways. What the Twins are doing with college arms just makes so much sense: draft as any solid arms as you can and work with them. But there remains the fact that some are just old enough and experienced enough that they SHOULD dominate at the lower levels. What I'm pleased to see is not only development of those arms, but an aggression to move them up quickly to the next level. I understand someone like Canterino is unique, but even he has been promoted pretty quickly all things considered. Not all of these good looking arms are going to turn out. But with tutelage and aggressive promotion, the best are going to rise.- 17 replies
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The Numbers Behind Jose Miranda's Slump
DocBauer replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think Miranda is going to be just fine. He just may not be quite ready yet. And that's OK. The learning curve is different for everyone. He's got all the ability and potential you could hope for. He was a high pick who Twins scouts and FO personal have been quietly saying for the past few years, from various reports; "just wait...just wait". Well, he started to figure it out in 2021. My opinion? He's pressing. He got off to a poor start with St Paul and was getting hot when promoted. And he wants to do so well he's almost forgotten all the adjustments he made last year. He's suddenly reverted back to just making contact vs the good contact he figured out. And he could suddenly "click" any day! I hope like crazy that happens! But I think he needs to go back down when the roster gets healthy and take what he's learned and get himself right again. I DO THINK the Twins did themselves, and Miranda, a HUGE disservice by not brining him up late in 2021 to get his feet wet then. He might be more ready now, regardless of any success he might have had.- 19 replies
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- jose miranda
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I can't disagree with you, even though I still have qualms about Lewis' development as a ML SS for the future not playing the position on a regular basis. I like the idea of Lewis, if kept up, splitting time here and there. I also believe Arraez should be in the lineup just about every day between 3 spots and DH. Urshela's offense just SHOULD be better than it's been based on his last 3yrs. But his glove flashes GG caliber. He needs to be in the lineup against LHP and can also be a defensive replacement. The glove is good enough to be in the lineup once in a while against RHP as well, in your scenario. Gordon also fills in here and there, etc. The only "problem" with your presentation...and it's a GOOD problem..is trying to build a 13 man position roster with Garlick to face LHP, Larnach back, Kirilloff MAYBE/EVENTUALY back, and then Sano back at some point and potentially ready for a strong 1/2-2/3 of a season. I know I'm getting ahead of myself here, but we COULD have a roster crunch coming relatively soon.
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- luis arraez
- miguel sano
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Does 100 Games of Buxton Work?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Only Buxton and the Twins know best how he feels day to day. His knee could have to be monitored in this fashion all season. It's also very possible that with the weather finally warming up to normal, and a few days off here and there, along with a few DH days, plus the All Star break, his knee might just get better and better over the next month or so. As someone who has an acceptable but "bum" knee...I wear a sleeve when I go for a long walk and the occasional jog for stability...I know first hand the warmer month are way more kind to me. As to him as a DH, he hasn't done it much, we're talking a SSS, it might feel more routine as he does it more. Also, if he isn't doing it already, he might take a page out of Cruz's notebook and hit the exercise bike here and there between innings to keep himself loose and warmed up. But as much as Rocco and the Twins want to follow their maintenance plan with Buck, unless his knee has really flared up on a given day, I find it inexcusable to not have him available to PH in the 9th or 10th inning in a crucial spot instead of someone struggling to hit .200. Again, unless it's a bad day, he should stretch out, loosen up, warm up on an an exercise bike, to get him ready for a PH opportunity in games it looks like it may be needed. I absolutely want what's best for him for this year, next year, and all the years yet to come. But if you told me general maintenance would give Buck 100-110 games in CF, another 20-25 as a DH, (unless he just stinks there), I'd be ecstatic with those 130-140ish games.- 23 replies
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- byron buxton
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A healthy lineup has solid/good hitters and good power across the lineup. Ad a result, there's nothing wrong with your DH or 1B being a different kind of hitter than has been the traditional mainstay. There is a need and place in most any lineup for a special hitter like Arraez and this works. Yes, more length can sometimes be a split second arrival of the ball to glove or an extra inch allows for a wider catch radius on a wide or high throw. But the most important thing is just to catch the ball and to handle hops and scoops. Arraez can do that without issue. Again, this works. (It also helps to have some pretty good arms in the infield where you don't have to scramble for errant throws constantly.)
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- luis arraez
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Griffin Jax: Slider Slingin' Relief Ace
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Friday night's implosion after being sent out after such a long wait notwithstanding, I've been impressed with Jax in this new role as well as his "new" slider and higher velocity FB. I know different analytics can be used in different ways to break down a pitcher for both good and bad. But despite some pretty bad final numbers in 2021 as a SP, Jax was pretty good for 3 IP, or once through the order. I don't know if he can succeed, generally, as a 3 inning, 59 pitch pitcher or not. Maybe. My hunch though is he's best for 1-2 innings cranking up that FB to 94-95 and using that impressive new slider. He seems to have the temperament to handle a BP role. He's always had pretty good control. And he is pretty bright, meaning he can adapt and "figure things out" as he goes along. There is potential there as a possible setup man, but I think he's a SO 1-2 IP 5th to 7th innings guy. And there is real value in that. I sure wish we were talking about Duran, Jax, AND a healthy Alcala.- 10 replies
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Gilberto Celestino Demonstrating Big-League Value
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't think anyone has ever stated he's a 4th OF and that's all. I just think it's been accepted as being his floor and his role for now. I mean, healthy, pretty sure Kepler, Buxton and Kirilloff/Larnach will be the primary starting OF. I am so surprised this kid has come on as strong as he has. And not because of his inauspicious debut last year, but just being as young as he is and a half year at AAA...even though he looked good...I just figured he'd need a little more time to develop before settling in to a ML role. It's a little hard to gain experience and confidence sitting on the bench after all. But he's responded wonderfully. The defense is there, and his milb numbers suggest a solid bat and OB. The question as to his future as a starter, IMO, is how much pop/power does he really have? And while he has speed, is it transferable to SB? Answers to these questions will determine if he's eventually a starter or not. A good balance of everything but nothing exceeding "norms" would keep him as an outstanding and versatile 4th OF. -
Astros 5, Twins 0, Lack of Luck, Runners Left on Base
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Obviously disappointed in losing all 3 games. I would have been OK with some sort of split. But 3 losses against a very good team even at home, doesn't spell doom and gloom going forward. It's baseball. Stuff happens. We weren't supposed to win in Tampa, remember? I didn't get to watch today, still, a few personal thoughts: 1] Ryan wasn't as sharp in the opener as he has been. Personally, while it was atrocious, I felt he got squeezed a lot by the ump. Disappointed in Winder today, but I have faith in him and a rebound. Bad games happen even for seasoned pitchers. You're going to, obviously, have a few bumps in the road here and there with rookie/young pitchers. 2] More disappointed in Archer Wednesday night. He just seemed tight or pressing and seemed to overthrow or miss constantly. I don't know if it was the weather or just a very bad day. I've been surprised and encouraged before that game and how the Twins have been handling him. But he's got to rebound next start in a big way. 3]I know we're playing a little short and banged up at the moment, but the offense was starting to click. And I know the Astros are a quality team with some good arms, but the offense has suddenly disappeared the past 6 games. Come on guys! 4] Arraez could fall out of bed every day and hit .300. He's an important part of this team and I'm glad he's still with us.. 5] Gordon's draft status will probably always mark him as some sort of "disappointment" no matter his career going forward. But he's starting to hit. His speed is a valuable asset. He can cover 6 positions at least "comfortably" defensively. That catch in CF today was OUTSTANDING and I just marvel at how quickly he has adapted to the OF, on the fly, pun intended, since being thrown out there in 2021. 6] In baseball, there is always tomorrow and the next series. Time to move on, get back in the saddle, and get back in the WIN column starting tomorrow. LET'S GO TWINS!- 38 replies
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- josh winder
- nick gordon
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There is a real chance he could play a big role for the Twins the last couple of months of the season. Even with good health for the current staff, IP could be a factor. With no setbacks, Balazovic could be a real factor come August/September after 2 1/2 months to ramp up and iron a few things out.
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- jordan balazovic
- toby gardenhire
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Miguel Sano: Boom, Bust, or Both?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree "disappointment" is probably the word that best describes Sano's career, at least to this point for sure. But he's not a bust. How many top 100 prospects and high draft choices have failed to reach the ML level or wash out quickly with abysmal results? So the fact that he has played a "decent" 3B/1B and produced the OPS he has for his career might be disappointing for all that was anticipated/hoped for, but he's not a bust. I cant' explain his inability to be better than he has been, though I do agree he long ago seemed to disregard any attempt to just put the bat on the ball and let his natural strength do the work for him. I can't explain his slow starts every year. I do know that if you can live with him providing little value through mid May to the 1st of June, you get a POWERFUL and DANGEROUS hitter for the rest of the season that will carry your team for a week or two at a time even. And his final numbers will be very solid, though I'd still have a hard time batting him higher than 5th. But if you have a team that wants to challenge for titles, and has as much young talent arriving as the Twins have now, can you afford a streaky hitter who all but disappears the first month and a half to two months of the season? I've never been a hater, often a defender, of Sano. And while he will probably still play and contribute before the season is over, it's just time for both parties to move on after 2022. And that's disappointing.- 34 replies
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- miguel sano
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Has Nick Gordon Proven His Worth to the Twins?
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I guess my answer is...yes...but not completely. I have been generally impressed with his defense, especially so in the OF where he never played until being tossed out there in desperation last year. Last season, he hit, then he didn't, then he hit again. The speed and SB ability is real. Despite his thin frame, the ball jumps once in a while and he has more pop than it looks like he should. When I read something like this OP, I'm not only reminded yet again of his consistent "second year" at a level progress, but just how good he was in 2018 at AA, and in 2019 at AAA, his "second year" there. In fact, had he not been injured, it's almost a certainty, IMO, that he would have been promoted instead of Arraez. I say "not completely" as I've been a little disappointed in him here in 2022, though I admit the SSS at this point. I really expected him to raise all his numbers to more or less average. And he might still. But that's why my answer is in 2 parts. (Note* While never a large dude, I think he's still lost weight and strength over the previous 2 ill/hurt years that has cost him. I'd really like to see him a good 12-15lbs heavier) -
The key to any pitcher is to throw off a batter's timing, throw off his vision plain, and to keep him guessing in general. Columbe does all of that by changing speeds and mixing pitches and locations. And I think he's actually pretty "real" considering how he's looked, and the solid job he did last year. But he is not high leverage. He's a middle guy to fill and IP or 2. Eventually, he'll probably get timed up/figured out and begin to lose effectiveness. I do think it's just a matter of time until Moran is up for good and replaces him. But then again, a 3rd LH in the pen isn't a bad thing either.
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Week in Review: Change of Luck
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not only has Duran been pretty amazing, but so has Jax. And then Duffey and Thielbar have suddenly turned it around. Even with Pagan getting us on the edge of our seats lately, he's gotten the job done. I still feel the pen is probably one good, proven arm away from continued success. Other than that, my only concern is a Ying/Yang karma regarding injuries. We've had a bunch so far, but only Alacala and Sano appear long term at this point. C4 and Larnach back soon, Ober back soon, Arraez and Bundy off the covid list and Paddack OK, I'll breath a huge sigh of relief. But I'll breath even a little easier if AK's wrist feels good and he starts to hit again like he's capable of.- 19 replies
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How Long of a Leash Should Dylan Bundy Get?
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Despite the 2nd year option, I believe he was really signed for depth, and to be a place holder. If he does better than that and earns his option being picked up, it's a bonus for the Twins. Even in a good, healthy season you will need 7-9 SP over the course of a season, and the Twins have that right now. Bundy is a part of that, for the moment. In addition to injuries, there is a real innings concern this year due to young arms as well as Archer's comeback. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple "tired arm" IR stays here and there. Bundy had a really bad game. Then he had another in which he was probably ill, and the defense had a lousy game behind him, offering no favors. The game could have been very different with better play. You absolutely give him a few more starts to see what you really have. He's not the pitcher he was in his first 3 starts, and I think we all knew that. But I don't think he's as bad as his past 2 appearances either. I can't say exactly how many starts he gets because there are too many variables. But the good news is depth and upcoming depth will allow the Twins to walk away if necessary, unlike last year when they almost had no choice.- 46 replies
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- dylan bundy
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Buxton was Buck! Winder was again all we hoped for. In fact, he's been better than I expected as a rookie. He's going nowhere except his next turn in the rotation. Is Duffey the pitching version of Sano? Like last season, he suddenly seems to know how to get outs. Reminiscent of early 2021. Awesome first HR for Miranda! He looks good early, only the smallest of "deer in the lights" look, which might have been mitigated with a September fall up last season. But whatever. He will be at 3B soon, and for years to come. He's doing just fine right now with more to come. I can't wait for AK to be healthy and ready to go and be a part of the future of this team. But in the meantime, let's give a shout out to Larnach and how quickly he has adapted. And has Kepler FINALLLY become the player we hoped for? I'll take 2/3 . Lewis was a highlight. Saw at least one great defensive play and got his first ML hit in his first ML game. What's not to like right now?
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- royce lewis
- byron buxton
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Is the Twins Rotation for Real?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To the OP, which was great, 2 points: 1] REAL is just too early after a month due to SSS, as well as weather. The batters will heat up with the weather. But then again, arms will get warm and loose as well. So the SSS works both ways. 2] Archer and Winder should have been included So let's get to the heart of the matter RYAN: He might have a rough patch here and there, but most pitchers do. Everything about him screams REAL, whether that means potential ACE or just very good top of the rotation SP is TBD. But he's good/very good and potentiallyspecial GRAY: He is a bona-fide top of the rotation SP with a quality history. I've been so impressed with his leadership thus far. I absolutely love how he's taken the lead with other pitchers to "force" them to watch one another in bullpens and the such to communicate and learn with one another. He and Ryan will, anchor this rotation all year long. OBER: He's exceeded all expectations after putting up video game numbers, despite injuries, in his milb career. He had a very good 2021 and adapted his stuff during the season. He doesn't have anything special, but he's just good overall and still learning. I don't know how good he can still be, meaning his ceiling, but he can be a quality part of this rotation for years to come. I feel he's downgraded by some only due to IP. But I think the staff has been brilliant in slowly building up his arm in 2021 and this year as well BUNDY: He had a really bad game but hung in for 6 IP to take one for the team. Then the Orioles game happened and I'm not sure how much blame you can put on him. For maybe the second time all year, the defense stunk. He didn't throw all that bad. And a pair of games, with defensive miscues, doesn't define him. He could easily be just as good as he was previously his first few starts. But to be honest, even IF he proves to be only OK going forward...NOT saying that will be the case...being a solid guy for half a season while others take charge wouldn't be a bad thing. But I'm not doubting him after one bad performance and a bad team play game. PADDACK: Did the Twins fleece the Padres? This kid has STUFF and potential STUFF. But he is an enigma. He had the great rookie season and then slipped. But he's got control, velocity, a great change, and suddenly a great curve. But for some reason, he couldn't put it all together in SD. The FO has liked him for years. Now they have him. Suddenly all the pitches are starting to work? Is this another example of our FO and staff, Johnson and others, making things happen? I still hate losing Rogers, but you don't gain if you don't give at times. Time will tell, but we might have burned the Pad's on this one. ARCHER: I have been blown away by Archer's health and stuff and looking like his old self. Kudos to the FO for taking a shot and ALL doctors, therapists and instructors who Archer worked with to get him healthy again. The guy is throwing as well or better than he ever has. This is the kind of "come back" story that happens every season or so. The Twins are treating him much like Canterino, baby steps to build up the arm for IP with a potentially great outcome. The difference is about 8yrs. Canterino is being nurtured, rightfully so, as a SP with a future in that role. Archer is being re-established as a MLB SP. This easing in could pay major dividends before 2022 is done. Let him play up and build up his arm and see what he can do. BUT...I could also see him take a different route and transition at 33y to take all of his health and stuff to be an outstanding RP. I wouldn't do that NOW. BUT as the next few months play out, and if for some reason he just can't go more than 4 or so IP, I think it's worth looking at. WINDER: Despite his early results coming in as a long reliever, when push came to shove, I thought he might go down to St Paul when the roster shrunk, because he had options. The I heard the FO never intended to send him down. The I saw a couple outstanding starts. And injuries and stuff happens to make room. But I think it's clear now Winder is going nowhere. Everyone healthy and ready to go, SOMEONE, not Winder, is going to the pen. Depth is amazing! But you don't sacrifice the future for ego. And these thing always seem to work out. .- 44 replies
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- joe ryan
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Kirilloff played a lot of CF in HS but was projected to being a corner OF with growth, even though he continued to play some CF when the Twins drafted him. He lost a season due to TJ surgery early on, and while I never heard that he lost anything from his throwing, Larnach was reputed to having OK defense but a strong arm when drafted. When both were in the lineup in 2021, the Twins usually placed Larnach in RF and Kirilloff in LF. Now, that could be Larnach having the better arm, or it could be Kirilloff having a little better speed to cover the larger expanse of LF. Both are reputed to have decent to good arms and OK defense throughout their drafting and milb reports. Pay no attention to "can't play the OF" reports. They are both at least average in the OF. AK just has a gift to play a really good 1B.
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Week in Review: ALL THEY DO IS WIN
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've been critical of some of the moves the FO made this off-season, or more to the point, some moves they DIDN'T make this off-season when I felt opportunity was in their favor. And I think that's only fair. If I'm going to be supportive of them, as I have mostly been, I think it's fair to me/us to be critical as well when we see things we either don't like or don't understand. I'd like to think most of us, myself included, are fairly intelligent in our opinions and critiques, But I've always maintained that being an amateur GM doesn't allow me/us all the perspective and information or perspective that those in charge have. And I stand by a few complaints/issues I initially had as a semi-intellegent fan, even though I stated I liked a lot of things about this team. But I have to tip my cap to the FO for what they have done thus far. I know it's a long season, but just about everything they've done thus far has been SMART. I can't help but break down a few points as discussed here. 1] The rotation has been crazy good, even with limited IP. Including Bundy's bad Friday, the rotation has what, one or two games that could actually be called "bad"? Can Bundy keep it up? He's never been the ML SP prospect hopes held in store after early injuries, but he's flashed good for some bad teams, and even flashed greatness in 2020 and part of 2021. Has he learned, grown, and been influenced by Johnson and the Twins to "level out" his abilities and just be a solid, quality SP yet again? Early results say yes. But what if it's a mirage for only part of a season? (NOT saying it is!). Then he buys time at the WORST. Archer has been a find! And credit to HIM and his handlers to get healthy and prepared as much as the Twins for taking a shot. He looks as good as he did in his heyday and only needs to continue to ramp up IP over the next few appearances. Paddack has me wondering what is going on in San Diego. Or, again, more to the point, how many kudos do we give to the FO, Johnson, and the rest of the staff to just be better/smarter to see talent and potential and work with it for the best outcome? Because the early returns are very encouraging. Ober has looked as good as last year before his groin issue. Hopefully he's back soon. Winder has looked good out of the pen and then had a tremendous 1st ML start today. Oh, BTW, Ryan looks like one of the top SP in the league so far. What in the world happened to early reports he was FB heavy and deceptive but his secondary stuff was in question? I'm NOT going to anoint him to some title this early in his career, but he's throwing 4 pitches consistently and getting results. Maybe the FO and staff are smarter than we thought? 2] I felt the offense had a chance to be very good. There were question marks to be sure. I was most concerned about Jeffers, Sanchez, Urshela and AK, but had hope for ALL 4. Jeffers has been flashing big time and getting in a groove. All I asked for in regard to Sanchez was to actually improve defensively as he claimed to be working on while just hitting .225-.235 with his customary power and .300 OB. Well, he's done that, if not better. Change of scenery? I never realized how good of a glove Urshela had. I can't wait for Miranda to be part of our future! But now I'm looking at how Urshela fits even with Miranda for depth and roster flexibility. AK, IMO, is huge to the future of the lineup as a fixture at 1B, who can still play a solid OF, and be a high quality bat in the middle of the order. I've also believed Larnach could be an important bat but honestly didn't expect him to look this good this soon after he tailed off last season and then lost the rest of 2021 due to injury. He looks like he's ready to stay, so I'm uncertain about AK, when ready, and how the roster looks going forward. And that's a GOOD kind of "trouble" to have to deal with. But I HAVE to make a special note about Kepler. What is happening with him? He's always been an enigma despite his talent. He's a great RF and good CF who has a good eye and sweet swing who has just never been better than "good" other than 2019. A couple of seasons, milb and MLB, he hit LHP, but other years he just flaild against them. I used to argue he was at least a full year behind other prospects, despite his results, due to his introduction to baseball coming from Germany. But he kept climbing and producing and then 2019 happened. And then he suddenly regressed. Suddenly, now, fully healthy and 29yo, has time, experience, and coaching suddenly taken hold? He's suddenly hitting LH again, and even hitting the ball the other way. Are we seeing a final maturation of Kepler? Man I sure hope so! 3] I understand and yet hate the Twins approach to building a bullpen. For the most part, they've been successful. But at some point, you HAVE to have the arms you can count on. And right now, this is the ONE part of this team and it's success that concerns me. Losing Alcala really hurts. Lewis has been a great addition. Duran looks like a potential stud and difference maker. Pagan has the ability and proven results to be a solid piece, despite a bad outing recently. But right now, despite a strong April and good start to the season, and some good games, we are still "sorting out" the pen. Duffey and Thielbar have the stuff and experience to rebound and be part of a playoff team. But they better figure it out soon. Rosters are going to be reduced soon. And unless something changes, there are a couple of guys at AAA that may force the FO to make a change. Because right now, despite "decent" BP production with a winning record, the BP is the one potential weakness of what could be a legitimate playoff team.- 16 replies
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Thanks! Can't believe I missed this. Damn cold! So he gets well in warmth and sunshine, gets a few milb AB, and comes up as the weather turns ready to rake? I like the way you think!
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- byron buxton
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Ober's not going anywhere if healthy. Being a pragmatist, Ober is still young/inexperienced at the ML level. It's still possible he hits a rough patch and needs a re-set at St Paul at some point. (Though I doubt it). As much as I like Winder and believe he's part of the future and is ready now, Ober isn't going anywhere. He's going to be in the rotation for the next several years. He's good.
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Winder looked outstanding. His stuff Plays, but his composure and approach really catches my eye. Really, EVERYONE is starting to hit and contribute, and not just bombas. And even though Polanco has been a little late to the table, a stat today showed he has been hitting .280 with 7/8RBI with RISP despite his slow start. This is the offense I expected, with the exception of Larnach in AK's spot. Kudos to Rocco, IMO, for having faith/patience and not giving Sands a quick hook. It would be understandable, despite the lead, to do so considering facing a good team on the road and not wanting to take any chances. But once Sands got that first K he really settled down. He flashed the stuff that makes him a top 20 prospect and finished strong.
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Can't believe it, but I was very "out of it" all week trying to work with a really bad cold bug, what happened to Sano? I completely missed it somehow.
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3 Takeaways from Tuesday's Wild Walk-off Win
DocBauer replied to Melissa Berman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
1] Since his transition to 1B, I've seen Sano make a few bad plays no doubt. But he's been solid overall and great with his stretch and digs. I have no real complaints other than some bad mental gaffs at times. And history has shown us that Sano WILL get hot and straighten out and put up some good numbers, even carry the team here and there. No question his slow starts are maddening. I think there are 2 camps in regard to Sano, those who understand and accept, and those that just don't like him and never will. FWIW, I think he's gone after this year. AK, Larnach, Miranda, possibly Martin, there just won't be room. 2] One thing I learned a long time ago whether it be luck on something, an easy sale, or winning a game on a fluke play, you NEVER apologize! Because it's "owed" for all the times bad luck or extreme effort wasn't enough, or someone just made an extraordinary play to steal a game away from you. In 2021, a season when anything and everything could go wrong DID, the Twins were on the other side of weird plays. Again, NEVER apologize for a win. You were the better team that day. 3] Forget Sano for a moment, Kepler and Jeffers are heating up. Eventually Polanco and Correa will as well. Larnach is starting to look like he's figuring it out. This lineup has the potential to be at least top 10 in the AL. 4] Speaking of defense, it's been pretty damn good. I can't wait for Miranda to heat up and be part of the future, but I'm loving Urshula's glove and professional AB. Correa has been as advertised with the glove. Polanco looks great at 2B. On and on. Even Sanchez hasn't been awful at catcher by any means. And please, stop ragging on Arraez after a couple bad plays. He's an OK 2B and pretty solid at 3B. A couple bad plays doesn't diminish good past play. But I love him at 1B and have questioned before why he wasn't used there before now. He's not ideal length for the spot, but not every 1B in history, even some very good ones, were over 6 foot plus. (Funny how Arraez is compared to Carew so often as a hitter and is now playing 1B). 5] Never saw the rotation being this good, even with hope. Can it continue? Paddack is getting better. Ryan and Ober are young and part of the future. Archer, even in limited IP, looks an awful lot like the very good pitcher he was 3yrs ago. Can Bundy keep doing at least close to what he's been doing? And Winder looks like he's ready if anyone goes down. 6] Bullpen is my only fear at this point. We didn't add a quality arm to help Rogers, and then we traded Rogers. And now Alcala is out for how long? It's not like everyone is a dumpster fire or have been bad. And Duffey looked much better last time out. But this is the one area that scares me still.- 13 replies
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Kirilloff, Smeltzer Hope to Rejoin Twins Soon
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Have to be both concerned as well as simultaneously hopeful for Kirilloff. He has such a bright future if his wrist can be OK, and can be a big part of the Twins future. Without being any kind of expert, I think we've all seen guys have a procedure of some sort and it just seems to take longer than hoped/expected before things are "right" again. And then after a few months, sometimes the next season, it's as if the body just heals and adjusts and compensates and suddenly everything is fine. Sure crossing my fingers. I think Moran has a bright future but just isn't ready yet. Thielbar seems healthy and his velocity seems the same, so I'm still expecting him to figure it out. I think Smeltzer is going to be up at some point. And he could have a good role in long/middle relief. Boy would it be nice to have 3 solid LHRP. What a luxury! The problem with Smeltzer is the same as with Minaya and others, they could help and we're going to need help at some time. But the 40 man is so crowded we still need time to see who's going to grab a job and keep it.- 18 replies
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I'm uncertain as to the context of Correa's comments. Did he simply volunteer his love and enthusiasm? Or did someone ask him about his early impressions and a desire to stay? And understand, I think his comments were probably genuine. I've been very pleased by his attitude, leadership and even deference toward Buxton. I think he and his comments were genuine. But honestly, would you expect him to say something less? Would you expect him to say he's planning on opting out and looking for a bigger, longer term deal? Of course not. Again, I think his comments were genuine. But there has to be a reality check in regard to an extension. His idea of a 10yr deal now becomes an 8-10yr deal ask with 2022 already settled. Even as a great athlete, great work ethic, and great health, odds are very much against him being a high quality SS after his age 32 season, give or take slightly. Which means an over pay for his last 2-3yrs as a 3B/2B...possibly DH. Make no mistake, there IS a difference gambling on someone like Donaldson at 3B for $25M who can DH or play 1B as his range slips, vs paying Correa $30-35M in his mid 30's and no longer a SS. There are a handful of teams that can, do, and have "eaten" vast amounts of $ late in a player's career to have the first 5-6-7yrs of peak performance. The Twins simply can't afford to do that. But in regard to the OP and what the Twins COULD do? Well, it does depend, of course, on Correa and his agent. Would he be willing to be locked up until age 34-35? That would mean a 7yr deal. Would GUARANTEED $ of say $210M...in addition to the $34M he's making in 2022...get it done? That's a combined $245M over 8yrs by the end of his age 35yo season. Would that GUARANTEED money and happiness and security worth vs looking for that "extra" be worth it to him? Because that's the absolute max the Twins could afford, IMO. And I think it's a safe opinion. OPTION #1: How could the Twins afford it? Well, it would be nice if incentives were included, but I don't see that happening. But with projected growth in revenues over time, money coming off the books, and a large group of young and inexpensive players and pitchers on the rise, the Twins have the ability to front load the early years of the deal, keeping him in that $34-35M range before sliding down to the $20-25M range later in the deal. OPTION #2: I have ZERO doubt that the Twins and Correa weren't honest and earnest in their 3yr deal, despite the opt outs. Otherwise, why not just do a 1yr or a 1yr with an option of some sort? So how about tearing up the deal, make it an ADDITIONAL 3-4yrs at the same value, toss in some incentives for ALL STAR, MVP, games played, etc, which adds value and plays in to the "front loading" the deal and allows Correa to still walk at age 30-31? Combined with 2022, he gets a minimum of $170M+ with the opportunity to sign with someone else while still young enough to earn a second payday. This hedges injury or sudden decline, or sudden changes in the market while still offering future big earnings. IMO, these are the ways both parties "win" and Correa remains a Twin for most of his career, or at least the second half of his career. Both sides are fair, and both sides win. The only way either of these scenarios work is Correa is really and truly in love with the Twins, Minnesota, laying down roots, and looking to be a part of something long term, and content with massive amounts of $ and peace for himself and his family. Option #2 is probably the most desirable, but option #1 the most practical. And barring something unforseen, I just don't see either scenario taking place. I am going to enjoy watching Correa in the field and at the plate in 2022. I am going to enjoy his cajoling the infielders to work hard through his work and leadership. And when the rest of the bats heat up along with him, and the pitching hopefully holds up, it could be a really fun season. And then I will wish him well, except against the Twins, and will embrace Lewis at SS in 2023 and all the young talent on hand and coming up.

