DocBauer

I was intrigued about Chalmers and thought he might turn in to a really nice bullpen option. Was there anyone who didn't hold out great hopes for Romero? I mean, he was the real thing, right? (sigh) Jay was a big one for me. I wasn't sure about the conversion to being a starter, but I thought at worst he was going to be a top, back of the bullpen arm. Just a huge disappointment. Rich Becker is one of the biggest disappointments, "I was so wrong", player prospects for me. And if I want to date myself, and drag my memories across hot asphalt covered in broken glass, there are about 10 pitching prospects around the mid-80's that were all seemingly can't miss starters or at worst, quality bullpen pieces.

I actually kinda like this idea. The 2023 payroll should be able to handle Snell without much difficulty. Take on the salary, give up nothing, might get a steal back. There is no losing on this one. Just make sure to add a couple of RP as well. Can't get wrapped up in a potential steal and forget what needs done the most.

THIS! I just can't believe we are having the 3rd or 4th thread about catching. In regard to the OP and the passed balls and SB % of Jeffers from 2021 to 2022. Both worse. Is it injury? Is it adjusting to new pitchers? Is he just having a tougher year for whatever reason? If his 2023 numbers for caught stealing and passed balls are better Is he owed an apology? The single, #1 job of a catcher is "handling" the pitching staff and calling a good game from about 30 arms you are going to have to work with. 25-30yrs ago or so, catcher was a defensive only position. Think Boone, Sundberg and a plethora of high quality catchers. Then there was a sort of Renaissance at the position with Rodriguez, Carter, Santiago, Mauer, Posey, etc. And Mauer might have been one of the last, along with Perez from KC, who might be nearing the end. Jeffers is a quality receiver who has the trust of the staff. He's only 25yo in the middle of his 2nd full season. But he stinks and is not part of the future because he's not as good as 2021 in some metrics? Maybe it's his fault. Maybe it's the staff. Maybe he's in a rough patch and will get better, and closer to his 2021 numbers. Maybe if his bat was working better everyone would just dismiss his lower caught % and PB numbers? FWIW, he's been hitting at about a .300 clip his last 15 games with power. I just find it ridiculous we're trying to tear down a 25yo catcher in yet another OP who is still growing and learning but who is a solid overall receiver and has a ton of potential who had just barely eclipsed 2 full years of roster time. Just sucks he's not already Mauer or Posada right? I am far more worried about his 2023 partner than I am Jeffers and his ability and potential. And I'm even MORE worried about the 2022 and even 2023 pen than I am about a young catcher who is solid and has potential. Hating on a young backstop who is solid and has a ton of potential, and who has flashed, is just old vs other needs in the pen is simply not worth debating yet again. You want to talk 2023 at some point? I'm with you.

Reminds me somewhat of Turner when he slipped a few years ago after a so-so season with the bat. What a steal! I can only assume Lee is being rumored to slip due to dis-belief in his sticking at SS.

Lots of great days in the system, but... 1] Povich. WOW! 2] Javier, wouldn't it be something after the injuries and the setbacks if his last 2 months are for real and he's actually turning a corner? I think he needs to finish 2022 a level up to see if the trend is real.

With all due respect and great love for ALL of our TD writers, Tom Ciaccio is impressive! Again, with all due love and respect, any chance we can convert him to Twins fandom and bring him on board? Work on him John! Show him the way! LOL But seriously, these two games are at home. The offense has being doing their part. Winder has been doing his part, as a long man and as a SP almost perfectly since the year began. Really, for this year and beyond, hasn't he earned a full time spot at this point? The only logical "no" answer would be a solid, more experienced veteran holding place, the rotation fully healthy, and letting him continue to prepare for 2023 and doing what he's been doing. (Ober is going to have a say as well when he's 100%, but that's a different discussion for a different day) Even with Ryan being a "rookie" and not having a good last couple of games, his numbers are still very good, as the OP stated. He's just due for a good game at home. I think the Twins are due for a sweep with our offense and the staff just doest implode. (Looking at you bullpen). And then comes the Dirty Sox, but I'll wait to comment after the Brew Crew leave town.

No hyperbole, he's a generational "hitter". Period. That includes his contact and OB ability. While he will never be a power hitter...and who cares...it's not surprising that only 25yo and gaining experience, he would be having his highest SLG% at this time. He's just learning now, with his eye and some quality offseason work to add muscle and cut fat...thank you Nellie for helping with that...to turn on pitches he likes to drive the ball further for doubles and a few more HR. Despite a few bad errors at 3B and 2B here and there, my personal eye test, and a few analytics I've read here and there, take them for what they're worth, says that is defense at 3B and 2B are solid/average. I can live with that. Especially considering youth and bounced around quite a bit, and even being asked to play some LF early, and even a few appearances at SS. His play at 1B has been really fine, IMO,especially learning it on the fly. Let's face it, kid is just a "ballplayer" and if Rocco turned to him tomorrow and said we have nobody to catch the rest of the game and asked him to throw on the mask and pads, he'd probably say "no problem". 1B and DH are his best spots. I'd argue he's already solid at 1B and maybe above average, especially with so little time there. And we don't have to debate 3B/2B because really, we're talking about his transcendent offense at the moment. I don't know how many caught it, but there was a day game on MLB last week featuring the Twins. I believe it was against the Dirty Sox. They put up a graphic of PLAYER "A" and PLAYER"B" through 319 ML games. IIRC, stolen bases was not included, but everything from AVG to OB to SLG and RBI and R and OPS was included. Player "A" was ahead in almost every category except HR, but all the numbers were very close. Player "A" was Arraez and player "B" was Carew. Again, through 319 games and it wasn't intended as an Areaez vs Carew career comparison, that would just be silly. But it was posted as an example of just how good and unique Arraez is at this point in his young career. I have stated many, many times how the DH spot in baseball can be handled in a myriad of different ways. There is no written or un-written rule that states the DH position should/must be handled by a power only hitter, or an aging veteran who can't play the field any longer but can hit. Or some combination of the two. That's a perception based solely on past usage and viewership of the spot. The Twins won their 1st WS with the DH being shared. They won their 2nd with a primary DH. There are no set rules. Arraez CAN play the field in 3 spots and aquit himself decently, if not well. (All debatable. I get that). But he can also be a time share/primary DH. With the way this team is set up in the lineup for the next few years, he's PERFECT just being the player he is. Now we can debate as to whether he should bat leadoff even against LHP, knowing the first guy out of the pen might be RH, or if he should be lower in the lineup against a LHSP waiting for the oppositions pen, or sit as a destructive PH Godzilla batter on some days. But he is a very, very special hitter at 25yo and is only going to get better. Anyone notice that his knees are better after his offseason workouts with Cruz where he cut bad weight and added some good muscle? He is an ABSOLUTE offfseason extension MUST!

Part 2, as I had to pause to fix a late supper, LOL. 1] Congratulations to Buxton and Arraez and their very deserving All Star selections! 2] Miranda is just getting better and better, confirming his top prospect status and proving he is turning out to be the kind of hitter the FO thought he might be, and proving 2021's breakout was not an illusion. More on him in a minute. 3] Very surprised Kirilloff wasn't mentioned in the OP, unless I missed him somehow. The kid has basically been raking since coming back. His 30 game, 15 game, and 7 day numbers are all trending very high. And more on him in a moment. 4] I'm OK with Max in the 4 hole against RHP. While his BABIP is still frustratingly and confusingly low, it's still better. His hitting is about normal, which would seem to indicate actual improvement with offensive numbers still generally down. (Though it does appear numbers have been climbing). He's actually having a pretty good year. 5] Despite lauding Kepler, and no disrespect to one of my favorite Twins, by next season at the latest, he's going to be sliding down more in to later portion of the lineup to make room for AK, Miranda, and maybe even below Larnach who I think will turn out to be the even better overall hitter. We've already seen what he can do last year and this year when healthy. I think he surpasses Kepler very soon. 6] Sure hope this trend continues...crossing fingers...but Jeffers has been hitting a rough compsite of .300 with power and decent OB his past 15 games.

I don't want to play the "overly optomistic" card, but Ryan is, for all intents and purposes, a rookie. He's doing really well, but a couple speed bumps shouldn't be unexpected. And it also would be unexpected to see him start to pitch much better again soon. He's a pretty savvy kid. Agree Gray just hasn't been the same. Days off and the break could do wonders to get him righted again. And let's hope so as we really need him. I like Smeltzer a lot as a person/story and a wiley LH. I think he's better than his last couple of starts, but not as good as his first 5-6. But he might be perfect as a mid/long/piggyback arm in the pen and just keep Winder in the rotation. The pen is what it is until re-inforcements arrive. And there should be a couple by the end of the month. A healthy Alcala would be a huge boost as well. Duffey's time as a Twin may be coming to an end, but he's experienced and savvy enough he might just finish off this season as a solid middle guy. The offense deserves better. Should have swept the Dirty Sox, but will always take 2 of 3 in any series. Was very disappointed in losing a pair to the Rangers. They do have some real talent, but I just think we're the better team. Need to finish strong before the break.

Absolutely NOT disagreeing with your thoughts on the matter. As I stated above, I'm OK with a couple additions and one or both having control. But to re-state, any short term rentals can also be re-signed if they look good and seem to "fit in" with the team. Further, rentals will cost a little less to acquire. Additionally, there may be an arm or two ready for the pen next season such as Alcala and maybe Sands or Canterino transitioning, for example. And if the FO starts taking the pen more seriously, there may be a FA or two to consider next offseason as well. That just costs a contract. So just saying, NOT getting Additional control is not necessarily a bad thing as far as next season is concerned, providing more flexibility, as long as the FO doesn't remain passive.

I'm not opposed to spending more and getting an arm or two that have control though I am also a bit leary on new "breakouts". But would just like to point out that trading for a rental doesn't mean there can't be mutual interest and a re-signing. The Romo and Dyson trades cost little in 2019 and while Dyson ended up being hurt and didn't help, both additions were smart moves. And Romo was really nice to have around in 2020. If Dyson had been healthy and not a head case, (which nobody knew until after the fact), they might have gone 2 for 2. Help is needed, however it comes. Just reminding that being a rental arm isn't a bad thing, and doesn't mean they wouldn't be back.

Thank you for all your hard work Jeremy, including this mock, getting ready for the draft. While the names may change, the draft aa you've proposed here sounds very "Twins like" with thus FO. Take the HS SP in round 2, grab a bunch of arms that they can work with and develop from the college ranks, and maybe even draft an injury flier or two with high upside, e en if you have to wait a year on them. (They've done that before). Can never have enough good pitching, that's for sure. I'm a little leary of the P/Player imbalance here, but the past few drafts and a good deal of the international signings have been pretty strong in player numbers so I guess I'm OK at the end of the day. Really would like to see a higher/better catcher or a pair. But they drafted 3 last year, (though only 1 is doing anything with the bat so far), and from what I've read and heard, just sounds like a down year for backstop. Cross just makes sense at #8 if nobody falls. He's either a better hitter than Kepler, or a faster version of Larnach. Both sound good to me. But if the Twins believe Neto would stick at SS, I just wonder if he doesn't provide such an overall balance to his game as to be the better selection?

What's not to be excited about here? He's LH, throws 4 at least decent pitches (reportedly), with solid control. If the 94-97mph he's been reported at is consistent, he's absolutely deserving of his ranking. He only threw 10 innings after being drafted last year split between rookie ball and A-. Currently he has fewer hits than IP, a solid .232 BA against, better than a 4-1 SO/BB ratio while jumping straight to A+ this year. Walks are a little high but not bad. Only real negative I can see is 7 HR in 63 innings. Filling out doesn't necessitate his becoming huge. It means getting a little stronger to potentially further increase velocity, but also to be able to maintain velocity over multiple innings. He was listed only about 185lbs when drafted, so I'd love to see him add a little muscle. Not sure it's going to be tomorrow, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him at AA for a handful of games to end the season.

I was going to say Larnach with better wheels, but I like your analogy as well. The more I've read and heard about Cross the more I like him. You can never have enough good players and you try not to draft solely for need. Therefore, I'm not against Cross as being "redundant" at all. I think he'd be a fine pick. But I'm still holding out some small hope for Parada or Collier. But I'm not gonna be disappointed if it's Cross.

A surprise or two, someone believing and liking someone and looking for an under slot signing and someone falls would be ideal, and maybe probable. (I think teams looking to save money for pitching in the 2nd round makes sense since there are few top arms in the early portion of the 1st). Parada or Collier dropping to the Twins at 8? YES PLEASE!

Agree with Shaitan above, where's the love for Polanco? He's not going anywhere soon, I'd wager. I'll leave Lewis out FOR NOW simply because he needs to get healthy and stay healthy. He does that, he's definitely part of the core. But AK, Larnach, Miranda are all to be considered by next year if not now. Oh heck, let's just have a core 12!

Congratulations to both young men. They clearly deserve the honor. Both should be ready some time next year. Two more really nice young players to add to an already good mix.

I feel kinda bad here because I didn't have an opportunity to comment on the Neto post. I mean, as much as I love my Twins, my son getting married July 4th kinda took over any blogging, lol. I admit to no previous knowledge of Williams at this point, other than presented here as I haven't taken time to read or look at BA. Again, been busy and sidetracked. Height doesn't bother me. Big time power doesn't concern me. Again, think Arraez as a fallback, Steer...a little bigger...and sorry...but to compare Altuve to anyone is pretty unfair. Never understood where "gamer" and "ballplayer" became negatives. Again, think Arraez. Just from what I've read here, without additional research, I'm thinking this is a very, very interesting option who has a lot of tools to work with, especially hit and OB tools, combined with some speed. And a few years from now, someone will have to eventually take over for Polanco, though they probably won't be the same player. But injury to his arm has to be a concern. Does he have the arm to stick at SS or play CF "old school" where you are outstanding with glove and arm and do all the important things such as HIT and get OB? He just might. Despite Miller as the top SS in the system, I'm OK with another top SS draftee, IF the arm checks out. Especially if under slot brings in an arm in round 2. But while older doesn't Neto offer almost the same profile? Neto is a 50 on defense, which concerns me, but has seemingly more proven "hit" ability and probably as close or better power and speed profile. He also fits the 'gamer" and "ballplayer" profile, which is not a bad thing. He can potentially "do it all" with a little more certainty than Williams. Also, there still might be a $ savings for round 2. I'm very interested, but not sure Williams is the right choice.

Detroit is like kryptonite, in the Central at least. They are either going to bottom out further, OR, they are going to be very dangerous in a couple of years beyond the Central. I'm not 100% on Ryan finding a certain pitch. His stuff plays. And his increased slider usage really plays up his deceptive FB. He's still, basically, a rookie. There's a lot of general learning left to do. And he's smart enough to figure it out. I think, for now, his problem is just getting back to "rhythm" coming off his covid. I don't have a lot of faith in Megill in pressure situations. But I've watched him in games and ST and was kinda wowed with what he threw. And I've been thinking since I first watched him throw in ST; "if he could do this consistently....". Maybe a silent steal, but he should be nothing more than a middle guy at this point. I think he honestly has a chance with some time. Did an absolute "spit take" in reference to Jeffers having the decency to SO to give Arraez another chance to hit. High 5er to make me laugh that hard after a loss.

Crap happens. You can't win them all. Period. We are having a very good season and are in 1st place in our division and control our own destiny. These, and a solid rotation and a lot of good and good young players and pitchers are part of all of the good that is happening. And we won this series. So the sky isn't falling. Again, crap happens. BUUUUT, there were some pretty bad things I saw in my 2 innings watched, and the box and just following the GameDay tracker when I could. Ryan is good, only going to get better, but just didn't have it today. His strike percentage was good, and only allowed 2BB, but 85 pitches in 4 innings doesn't get it done. I'm going to have to assume some deep counts, despite the solid strike percentage, and a lot of foul balls. Only way you can have that many pitches in just 4 innings. He's been in the 90 and even 100 pitch range previously. I don't know the answer, but did he look "done" after 4? Or was he looking strong enough that maybe the Twins should have tried for a 5th inning? I have to guess after allowing 2 in the 4th he was just toast. I am not upset at Jax for allowing a run. He's been a wonderful and unexpected surprise and maybe the 2nd best arm in the pen this year, despite being barely past rookie status and in his 1st year transitioning to the pen. I'm not even mad that Moran lost the game in the 10th. Disappointed, absolutely, but not angry. He's a talented young arm with a future who's looked pretty good so far, placed in a pressure situation against a team with some pretty good bats and it wasn't his day. I sort of WANT to be mad at Megill as he's got a live arm and has some promise, but he should be about the 12th man in a proper pen plan and should be "breaking in" with the Twins as an extra/middle innings spot until he proves to be capable of something more. Who AM I angry with? I'm angry with the FO...again who I like and mostly support for a myriad of different reasons...for not taking the 2022 pen more serious. They couldn't have predicted the injury to Alcala. They didn't know...how could anyone really...how fast and furious trades and the such were going to happen post-lockout? By the time they made the deal with SD, there really wasn't anyone left to sign. But they needed another arm BEFORE they traded Rogers. And that may be more agregious than the trade itself! Look, a year from now, we may be loving having Paddack and the young prospect who escapes my memory at the moment. Plus, who says a healthy and productive Paddack isn't a quality re-sign? And yet, I still wouldn't have made the deal. I would have kept Rogers, signed another arm I really liked, and hoped for a Rogers re-sign if he looked like he deserved it. Even with the trade of Rogers, how much different might the pen look, and different results, IF the FO HAD made that ONE good addition to go along with what is currently on hand? And I'm ticked off that I'm beating an obviously dead horse for about the 7th time. And I'm ticked off at Pagan. NOT as a person. I'm sure he's probably a really good guy. But as a PERFORMER, I'm disappointed and upset. Despite a high velocity FB and a new splitter that seem OK, he just can't deliver. Period. He's not an inexperienced rookie just adapting and feeling his way. And I understand injuries and lack of arms is impacting Rocco and decision making. And while other guys have garnered 3 or 4 losses over the past couple of weeks, it has been his veteran, experienced arm that has directly and only somewhat indirectly lead to at least 5 losses in games in which the starters and batters have done about all they could do. (As well as some good pen performances). The Twins lead in the Central is a solid 4.5 games. But it could easily be 10-12 games right now without some huge meltdowns. This also affects end of the season numbers that could influence playoff positioning. Do I dismiss the FO for the W-L record and Central lead being better due to mistakes made? Absolutely not! But sometimes you have to look at an individual performer in any career situation and just realize this individual just doesn't do the job. And sorry, that's Pagan. He just shouldn't be a Twin any longer. Literally, almost any young arm brought up by the Twins could pitch as bad as he's been, and hopefully better. It's just time. As far as Rocco...who I also generally support and believe in for a number of reasons...I understand Correa had today off. And I understand that Thursday is a day off and arguements could be made he should play no matter what with that in mind. Not sure I agree, but I understand the frustration. It's a long season and he's pretty much been an iron man when healthy. So give him the day off! But he can't pitch hit in a crucial situation and just play an inning or two with Thursday off??? I FULLY 100% SUPPORT BEING CAREFUL WITH DURAN AFTER LIMITED IP IN 2021! Did I announce that loud enough? LOL. And I want him to continue to grow and develop and keep his arm fresh for the entire season and a playoff run. But 20 pitches Monday, off Tuesday, only 9 pitches today and an off day Thursday? Twins probably win today if Duran gets another IP Good year. Sky is not falling. Our destiny is in our hands. FO has to make a couple good moves.

A good list, and good arguements. Rodriguez should be ahead of Miller, despite him being a CF/OF. Roughly the same age but was killing it before his knee injury and should be more dynamic of a bat/player. Giving Balazovic ALL THE CREDIT for his arm and potential based on a couple nagging injuries. The ability and potential hasn't gone away. Sands is getting untracked and looking good again. His future might be in the pen, we'll see. I'd keep he and the young Raya where you have them. Same with Festa for now. Festa may warrant being higher when the year is done. SWR is fair based on age and experience. Tons of potential, but very young and his "schedule" has been advanced and weird. Not exactly where I'd place him, but I'd place Wallner higher. Looks like the bat may be for real and he should be at least OK in the OF. Sorry, can't give Balazovic allowances, and Enlow...deservedly so IMO...and then downgrade Canterino. He's never been hurt until last year and now, but neither injury seems surgical. May just mean, unfortunately, he's a RP and not a starter. Disappointing if true. But he could be as good as Duran in the pen and maybe that's just, reluctantly, where he ends up. But he could be a stud there! Shouldn't Varland be higher? Not sure who he'd bump, but I think he's better than where you have him. HUGE fan of Povich. Is Hajjar just behind him if healthy again soon and his BB looking better? Soularie is on the upswing and very talented, but where he should be for now. Same with Rosario. Helamn is probably right for a super-utility player. Don't apologize for Julien being fairly high and being another super-utility type at this point. The skills and talent are there! But Sabato is out of my top 30. Cavaco is near the bottom until he sparks at some point.

Agreed. Which is why I make the comparison IF you knew/really felt that was the kind of bat you were drafting. You know, if your crystal ball was working. Otherwise, as stated, I'm passing on Berry.

While he was a late bloomer development wise, and not a switch hitter, if you could draft Nelson Cruz out of college with the 8th pick, you'd do it. It would be foolish not to, regardless of his being strictly a DH. (Though to be fair Cruz did play OF initially). Drafting an almost position-less player like Berry, you are basically saying you believe you are drafting a Cruz type bat, hit/power/OB. That's an awful lot of expectation to pick a 1B/DH only at 8. I just wouldn't do it. Catcher or best bat actual position player available. Why is it I keep liking Neto more and more even though he's ranked out if the tip 10? Good chance there is a surprise in the first 7 selections and someone falls to us at 8. But, a 2B only position player with a bat, or a toolsy OF with questionable hit tool frustrates me. I want the best, most balanced player I can get at 8. Starting to wonder if someone outside of the top 10 isn't the safest and smartest selection.

I do? Miranda the past 30 days: .315/ .344/ .533/ .877 w/ 4HR and 16 RBI and trending Kirilloff the past 15 days, barely back: .260/.278/.420/.698. Krilloff the past 7 days, barely back: .333/ .370/ .542/ .912 w/ 1HR and 12 total RBI and trending. Larnach as of June 15th had 13 doubles, 5 HR, a .246 AVG and 124OPS+. Didn't have access to monthly numbers. Not sure he wasn't already suffering from injury on June 15th. TOP prospects getting first chance or coming back from injury and looking good, or looking good before injury in the case of Larnach. AK was RAKING at AAA before his promotion. Wish I had the full numbers of Larnach month to month, and his BA against LHP. Three of our TOP prospects all trending upward.

Preferencing my comments by stating that while frustrated by Sano's cold starks and "streakiness" during the balance of the season, I have largely defended him and what he brings to the lineup. Now, unless he's in "hot" mode, I've never liked him in the 3 or 4 spot in the lineup. I've always liked him better 5-7, knocking guys in that are hopefully OB, and his cold spells don't impact as much. And his power and production DOES and HAS added to runs and wins over time. But the simple truth is, he's not part of the future and it's very doubtful he is back next year. And he's been passed on the roster by younger players with good ceilings who are just better overall in Kirilloff, Larnach and Miranda. Urshela isn't better than Sano, but he's OK and a different type of player with greater defensive value. Steer may be ready by next year, and Wallner may be ready within a year. Now, a long and successful rehab and he looks like his "hot" self and there is an injury, he could, potentially, provide real value in August and September to close out this year. He can DH and play 1B and just be dangerous as hell. Let's be honest, he could crank out 10-15 HR and another 10-12 doubles with 25-30 RBI over that 2 month span. He could also struggle to hit .220 with hardly any contact or power or production. I just don't see a DFA. But I also don't see room unless another good bat is demoted or someone is hurt. But as is often said, these things often take care of themselves. He just might help still. Other teams aren't stupid. They know who and what Sano is, and isn't. The best case scenario would be a hit rehab, and a team, preferably in the NL, who is hurting for RH power and would either trade a rental BP piece they feel they could afford to give up, or a milb BP arm knocking at the door and seemingly ready for a shot. He could also be part of a deal for said ML BP arm.