DocBauer

FWIW, a "rumor" ...and I despise using that term...had the Twins going "going backward" in their design. WTH does that mean? Sloppy wool jerseys from the 1900's? LOL Personally, I like the updated powder blues and I don't think they are going away. But I don't like the red tops and am abilivent on the blue tops. I'm expecting the return of pin stripes and a cream colored alternate option. Retro is not bad, is classic, and can be even better with a few subtle changes.

I'm sorry gang, and I'm not trying to be dismissive of personal opinion or be mean, but what are you asking or looking for? There is a dearth of "outstanding" catchers in MLB who can provide quality defense and great offense. AJ and Mauer aren't walking through the door any time soon. Sanchez, one of the worst catchers defensively in MLB actually improved with the Twins, while seeing his bat continue to decline. But he's a better option than Jeffers, as some have stated? Jeffers calls a good game. Once again, when given the primary spot to begin 2022, before all hell broke loose about July, he caught/called something like 12 of 16 games where the Twins only allowed 3 or fewer runs. Say what you want to about passed balls...they happen...but his fielding % is .995 for his young career so far. And I know there are different metrics for anything you want, but that's from Baseball Reference. So take it as you will. But I don't see any major defensive discrepancy to say he doesn't play solid defense. He doesn't throw well enough? You have an argument. His 22% in 2021 was 3% less than average, so, solid. His 18% in 2022 was not good. Is that him? Pitchers not holding runners? Hard to say. The Twins are focused on the batter and less on the runner on 1B. That's documented in their approach. Also part of the reason being they are looking for the low strike, having their catchers squat lower with the leg "kick out" approach made famous a couple decades ago by Pena. As an aside, it does help keep the catcher's legs healthier for the season, as well as at the plate. So let's pause for a moment to talk about quality hitting vs good game calling and quality defense vs questionable throwing. Jeffers OPS+ is right on with ML average for the position in 2022. So if you can accept good game calling, and solid defense, average batting should make him a decent, quality catcher overall. When you take a step back and remember he's only 25yo and has 591 actual plate appearances at the ML level and has produced average results despite hitting in college and in the minors, how in hell can't you be excited about his potential to hit at the ML level with just a little more time and opportunity? He was drafted as an offense first backstop who has turned in to a solid, quality backstop who had ZERO catching coaching until he turned pro. His offense is still developing after being somewhat rushed from AA in 2020. After 591 PA TOTAL he's an offensive bust despite power and flashes and being league average offensively? Some of the wisest words Tom Kelly ever said was no hitter ever reaches their ability until they have approximately 1500 ML AB. And I'm paraphrasing somewhat. I want to see a better arm and a better release from Jeffers behind the plate. I don't expect miracles, just better than last year. But I have no problem with his game calling or overall defense. I've watched him and he's good. But I also want him to grow as a batter and reach his ceiling, or close to it. I think he can. I wonder, if his thumb didn't get broke just as he was hitting hot in 2022, and he finished hitting .230-240 with the same 14HR he had in 2021 are we still talking about how he needs to be replaced? None of my opinion is going to replace the opinions of others. I get that and it's OK. I'm also looking for more from Jeffers in 2023. And I'm looking for a solid co-catcher compliment yet again. I'm a believer, still looking for more, but really surprised by the negativity for a pretty good player.

Just wondering, is that "T" really gold? (light gold) Or is it maybe off white as a hat to be worn with some cream uniforms? Really looks more cream than gold to me. But who knows with that lighting. Could be just a single snapshot of a single proposed hat of many that will be offered in 2023.

It sure looks like the Twins have been looking for more speed and using it more in the minors. For the most part, their affiliates rank in the middle of their respective level. That indicates, IMO, a willingness to adopt a SB strategy without selling out toward that strategy. I think that's wise. Limiting pitchers ability to throw to 1B might have a greater impact on SB league wide rather than the larger bases. I get that a SB attempt is often a bang-bang type of play. But we're only talking a total of 3" less between the bases. And then, the covering infielder is is 1 1/2" closer to tag the runner, we're talking about a very small difference overall. I'm not convinced yet that the larger bases are going to have a profound affect.

Sorry, but have to echo comments about Jet Blue vs Hammond. Really? Medina is years away. I'm not dismissing him, but he tops out at high A CR this year if it starts to come together. He's just not on my radar right now. Cruz is one of those guys who is "older" at 23 who has amazing stuff and really didn't deserve to be promoted to AA for 2022. But STUFF...and I'm guessing a solid Instructional League...got him to Wichita for 2022. And I applaud that move! Pure arm talent rivals Duran and Alcala. The rest of his results do not. But a repeat of AA MIGHT have him finding control finally. He's a 2nd half of the year candidate for AAA, with a possible ETA of 2024. Now, in Raya, we might have something! I didn't like the 2020 draft and still don't. But I liked Raya. From day one I felt they found another "Berrios-like" pitcher with stuff and attitude on the mound. He's so young, barely thrown in 2yrs, and had himself a really good 2022. The IL will tell a lot, but I wouldn't be shocked if he he jumped to CR. And I wouldn't be disappointed if he started at Ft Myers and jumped quickly to CR. I just think this kid is going to surprise people really soon. Why was Festa not part of the article? Because he flashed enough? I would have placed him ahead of Medina. And if you really want to look at a potential breakout candidate, look at late round 2021 pick Jaylen Nowlin, a LHP who is WAY under the radar right now. ONE awful 2021 appearance. And then a promotion to A and A÷. 14K per 9. 1.40 WHIP, .230 AVG. Jumped to A and A÷. M ight be a RP eventually, but he's higher on my list than other. He's a sneaky good prospect that deserves mention and following.

I do think it's possible, at times, to have a team just prone to injury. It usually happens to an older, more veteran team, OR, a team that drafts, signs, trades for players with an injury history hoping to not have a repeat. But even then, mass injuries are just impossible to predict. In Minnesota professional history, I always think about the Vikings Robert Smith. He was an explosive, supremely talented athlete who couldn't stay healthy his first couple of years. And while I'm sure he worked hard to build his body up to endure the pounding of the NFL, he got some great advice from Tony Dorsett, which was, the team needed him all year, not just a partial year, and it was OK to drop down, or run out of bounds once in a while, and don't always look for contact or fight for the extra yard every play. And while that advice may have not been the sole reason he suddenly found better health, he did find it. And he became a better player, an All Pro, and became one of the greatest RB in Vikings history until he retired early to preserve his health and pursue other ventures. I use that as a reference to further state you just don't always know why and how injuries happen. They are unpredictable. And trying to avoid them might be anything from not playing through them all the time, to changing how you approach conditioning. I don't believe the Twins hired Salazar a couple years ago believing he was in any way incompetent. In fact, they've been pretty strong in brining in various coaches and support staff from a variety of places. But the number of soft tissue injuries has really bothered me. I've even half joked before how former Twin Nick Punto credited pillates as a major reason for health and improvement, and maybe the rest of the team should do the same. I do believe the lockout had an adverse affect on a lot of ballplayers this year. And a couple recent things I've heard has me convinced of that. Buxton's family had a big bout of covid in the offseason, and he was unable to contact the Twins training staff in regard to treatment and medicine to treat. Now, Buxton's unfortunate knee injury, and the hip that bothered him while compensating, has nothing to do with that. But it indicates how EVERYONE across MLB was simply allowed ZERO support from the training staff in any way. So how do you advise or monitor your players in the offseason? And while not trying to throw any shade whatsoever towards Mahle and what he may have done to prepare for 2022, he has stated that he may have thrown too hard, and too long to begin the season and developed his "tired arm" as a result. As a reminder, multiple doctor exams and MRI's have shown no injury. But what really bothers me is reports that he wasn't on any kind of shoulder strengthening program. Is that on the Reds, the Twins, or both? Could this have affected Winder and Balazovic as well, getting ready for 2022? Right or wrong in blame to change things up, I applaud going out of the system to find a different voice and a different approach. The one thing I'm curious about is the head trainer, and his staff, is only part of the equation. Every professional sports team also has a strength/conditioning coach and staff that work with the trainer and his staff. Have the Twins missed the boat on the S/C side of things? Does this need to be re-visted?

And this is where my mind has been drifting lately. I mentioned a year or so ago about the possibility of Lewis moving to 3B. I was surprised that I got pushback from some that moving Lewis to 3B...I might have even mentioned 2B...was a "waste" of his talent and potential. And I never understood that. That's like saying the Yankees moving Rodriguez to 3B to keep Jeter at SS was a "waste". If Lewis could be a fine ML SS, but you had Correa locked in, what is wrong with taking all of that talent and potential and having a stud 3B or 2B from him? What about Lee manning 3B and Lewis at 2B with Miranda at 1B, each able to cover other spots as necessary, with Arraez able to play multiple positions as well as having an open DH, and if AK ever gets RIGHT, he can play 1B/DH as well and suddenly you have room for everyone. I see Martin as a better version of Marwin Gonzalez. He could be an every day player across the OF, still be able to fill in at 3B and 2B, and be an emergency SS option. The one guy who might get pushed out is Julien, unless Lewis got moved to the OF. Isn't your best option to have really good players at every spot and lineup versatility? I mean, with a slightly different construction, that can happen without Correa, of course. But if you did have Correa, there are endless possibilities here how to build the roster/lineup. So I think we're on the same page.

Do the Twins NEED a LH catcher to split duties up with a platoon advantage? No. Would they like one? I believe so. While a general sharing of duties and good defense and game calling is most important, having a split platoon does allow for better matchups. Once again, I am of the opinion Jeffers is solid to good defensively with room to grow. I like the offensive potential and see a better floor than he's shown with a pretty nice ceiling if he "figures it out". And remember, he's only got about 550 ML AB thus far. Narvaez and Barnhart are experienced and have solid reputations. While neither is a hitting stud, and both are coming off poor 2022 seasons, each also had solid 2021 seasons where they basically hit their career stat lines. So both are just a single season removed from a solid hitting line. But Narvaez is 1yr younger, and has a little better overall quad slash line for his career. IMO, the FO should have already been on the phone with Narvaez's agent stating they want to offer a 2yr $12M deal as soon as the market opens. Don't wait around. Get the deal done, and then move on to other pressing matters. And FWIW, I would also be trying to bring back Leon on a split contract milb deal similar to what they did with Cave last year. Give him a high $ AAA deal that pays a solid, fair ML salary for when/if he's up with the Twins. I'd love to have him working with our young pitchers at St Paul and have him as insurance. Our best catching prospects are anywhere from 1-3yrs away.

Understood. But it's a year and $35M later, so I'm not sure 10yrs is in play. I'm still only spitballing and projecting here, but take away that 1yr and we're still in line, right? Not saying what should happen or will happen, just that 10yrs should maybe drop to 9 now.

I became a fan of Correa this year despite a 1st half mixed bag of results. I loved his teamwork and leadership in the same way I became an instant fan of Gray for his leadership in regard to the rotation. I did a lengthy blueprint with the idea/expectation Correa would not be back, and how I'd address the overall depth and quality of the team for 2023. I'm still betting SOMEONE will just blow up any chance of the Twins retaining him. But with greater reflection, and after listening to Dan Hayes on a recent Gleeman and the Geek podcast, some of my thoughts have changed. And believe me, the LAST THING I wanted to do was begin another thread about Correa. Haven't we had enough already?? So this might just be cathartic for me, and nothing else. There is the opinion, and I've shared in this, that Correa money might be better spent, OVERALL, across the roster. And that is true. IF, the FO does a great job of doing so. And I'm NOT going or trying to bash them, especially since they've never really been in this "clean books" scenario they find themselves in currently. They've done some very, very good things for the organization, and the team, but have also mis-fired a few times as well. Depending on which report and projection you want to look at, the Twins have about $50M to spend. That number jumps to $60M plus when moving Kepler and Urshela. Rumors and innuendo are bogus. But one "hears" the FO/ownership really want to keep Correa and will offer him in the high $200M's in an attempt to do so. Again, bogus right? And while $35M several years from now won't have the same impact on a payroll the way it does now, you're still paying for the first 5 or 6 years and undoubtedly eating some sunken cost the last few. There are a handful of teams that could just decide to blow up any offer the Twins might make at 9yrs and $300M, fully able and willing to eat some late contract numbers. Now, the market has been very strange the past few years so who knows. But Correa is a special player. And he's not only a leader who is driven to win, he's smart as hell and sees what is going on around him. Hayes mentioned a Yankees game where Correa spoke to Fulmer on the mound and told him what the batter was looking for and what to throw. He got out of the inning and the Twins actually won the game. He's just a very smart player, in addition to his other gifts and offerings. If things get out of hand and someone is going to offer $300M plus, I can't blame the Twins if they balk and move on. There comes a point as a mid-market team where you just have to say "enough is enough". But what if the FO just says 8yrs and $280-290M? It's a record deal for the Twins, and I believe for an infielder, based on annual value. Is it enough for Correa to stay? Is it enough for Boras, who has a good relationship with the Twins? The Twins settle SS for several years with easy movement of other top/quality prospects to change positions and still do what they do best. It gives the Twins one of the best ballplayers in all of MLB for several years. It even allows $ left over for a generally young roster to add a few more pieces to the puzzle, moving Kepler and Urshela, and go with additional youth. NOT saying it's going to happen. I'm still trying to wrap my head around the idea. But I AM starting to wonder if it's feasible and smart to make a transcendental move for the organization to do something like this. And so I beg forgiveness for yet ANOTHER Correa article. But the wheels are turning in my head right now and wondering.

I just wanted to add a little but to this. Jeffers had 55 AB's in the brief 2020 season. I think the numbers he posted, at least, show some of his potential, even with a down 2021 and 2022. With the short 2020 season and missed time this past year with his broken thumb, he's still accumulated only 591 PA and 534 AB. He's got power and while he's been streaky the past 2 years, the power is legitimate and he's shown flashes. He was actually on a nice upward trend when he got hurt last year. He's hit everywhere previously, is still only 25yo, and I think there's some untapped potential just waiting for greater consistency. Defensively, I'd like to see either his accuracy or release get better to help control the run game for sure. But his 22% CS in 2021 was only slightly below league average in 2021, though he dipped in 2022. How much of that was him vs the staff not holding runners I don't know. But, while I just can't recall the exact numbers, through the first couple of months last year, before things started to slide, the Twins had something like 16 games where they allowed 3 or fewer runs and he was behind the plate for like a dozen of those. Throwing out runners, preventing passed balls, are important and I'd like to see improvement there. But he's not awful by any means. But I've always maintained that a catcher's primary function is to call a good game, set a good target, and just "handle" the staff and imbue confidence in/for them. And that's why I think the Twins like him, in addition to some untapped offensive potential. I get why some look at the offensive numbers the past 2 years, (though I believe his 86OPS+ in 2022 was about league average for catchers), see a few passed balls and lack of a cannon of an arm, and want better. And nothing I'm going to say, or was written above by jmlease1, is going to directly change those opinions at this time. And that's fine. But I also remember a time when Garver was just "never going to be a regular catcher" and that turned out pretty good after a time. I want more, and frankly, I'm expecting more. And I think Jeffers does the important stuff pretty well. And I'm absolutely giving him all of 2023 to show what he can potentially do. But I DO want a good partner to pair him with. And I repeat, I think Narvaez, Barnhart as a second choice, are quality, experienced backstops with solid bats, despite each having a down 2022, who fit as great co-catcher options. I think it would be a huge mistake for the FO to sit around and wait for one to fall in their lap and hope. Be aggressive and go get the one you like and MAKE IT HAPPEN. This is too important a position to ignore and then hope. I think Contreras is an excellent ballplayer. And I would circle back to him quickly if some things don't fall in to place. The Twins need at least 1, if not 2, quality RH bats for the lineup. One should be an OF. The other COULD BE at SS depending on how serious the FO, and ownership, are about a fair and real deal for Correa, etc. But even then, they could jump on Bell as a 1B/DH with Miranda taking over 3B. IMO, Contreras would be great. But why not a quality partner to team with Jeffers to stabilize and improve at catcher and look for RH bats who could/would/should play on a more daily basis to improve the lineup?

Narvaez at $6M is my #1 choice to work with Jeffers. Barndhart is my #2. Both have good reputations as backstops and can hit a little and display some pop/power. Both are LH batters. Both are coming off down seasons and should be good players at good prices. I'm more worried about a quality RH OF, at least 1 BP arm, and figuring out the SS situation right now.

I think his September and AFl are indicators that his trajectory is trending upward, even with questions about his defense. If your offense is good enough, they will find a spot/role for you. I think his role is going to be every day player at 4 or 5 positions. Not saying he can't/won't be a "starter", just thinking he could be super valuable and successful playing all over on a daily basis. But his value is a little low right now based on a mediocre 2021 and less than ideal start to 2022. And farmerguychris echoes something I've been saying for a couple weeks now: time to spend some $ and quit trading away prospects.

OR, instead of trading even more prospects for either one of the 30 and 30yo+ veterans on 1yr deals they could KEEP their prospects and spend the same $ or a little more in FA. Rodon and Bassitt would look outstanding in the Twins rotation without losing any additional prospects. Remember a year ago when Manea was considered one of the top available trade options? Well, after a down year he's available without having to trade for him. And there are a handful of similar arms out there that could be solid options in the "Gray or Mahle" quality range it would be nice to plug in if depth is the answer.

What's so frustrating is the FO has $50M to spend, and maybe more depending on the futures of Kepler and Urshela. Gausman and Ray each received deals last offseason for 5yrs and about $105-110M total. (Pretty sure I have those numbers right.) Rodon is approximately the same age, has just as good of stuff, can be a difference maker, and should cost relatively the same. We aren't talking an 8yr and $200M plus. Does anyone really think 5yrs and $100-ish M is going to destroy future Twins payrolls? Risk? Yes. But tell me any SP you could trade for or sign and GUARANTEE me he's not going to have an injury at some point? Right now, with a little additional roster maneuvering and guys, the Twibs could sign/re-sign a TOP SS, (hint hint), sign Rodon, and still have a few $M left over for a co-catcher, BP arm and maybe a RH OF. As I said in another similar OP, the books are very clean and at least a little additional $ comes off next year. So if not NOW, then WHEN?

Agree with you about 90%. But with no slight to Maeda or Ryan, I'm not sure a 100% Ober might not be our 3rd best starter right now.

I was impressed by Winder early last year in both roles, even if his K numbers were lower than hoped for. And then he had the shoulder issue and just wasn't the same pitcher the rest of the year. And from what I've read, his FB was the pitch hit hardest and most often last year. But is that skewed by his second half? Because again, I liked what I saw to begin the year. I'd be tempted to put Winder #1 on the list if he's 100% and ready to go. But for now, I think I'm going to go with Varland in the top spot. I think I agree that SWR might have the better career and greater impact, but will be behind Varland to begin with. FWIW, if one of these guys end up being a really good middle/long swing man, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

I think this is a very salient OP. Every team in baseball wants to have an ACE, Cy Young candidate to lead their staff. But there's only a few of them that really qualify as such. Period. And they aren't on the shelf waiting for a team to come along and drop them in their cart. And how often are they traded? And if you look at history, most every ACE you can name was just a good pitcher at first and then developed in to ACE caliber. So the "we need to go get an ACE" argument just falls on deaf ears to me. But you DO need quality pitchers. And you need depth. Right now, healthy, the Twins staff looks pretty good and offers some young depth as well. Unfortunately, there are enough question marks that....and here I go saying it again...I'd be looking to add someone as good as Gray or Mahle, if I can't find someone better. I want to begin 2023 with too much pitching, and move guys to the pen or down to AAA with an option, rather than have too little. And personally, I think there's a handful of guys out there that could be solid additions in FA that would only cost $. I totally agree we need a much better pen as well. But when you look at the current candidates, as opposed to the beginning of 2022, it's very different. Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, a healthy Alcala, a young Moran looking pretty good, long and middle relief options available, things don't look too bad there. I'd be in full favor of bringing back Fulmer, who's been really solid since transitioning to the pen. But I also really like brining Hand "home" to add a strong veteran LH to the pen. But the gist of Brian's article is pretty spot on: the offense, for a variety of reasons, simply didn't come through often enough in 2022. Injuries had a lot to do with that, of course. Polanco was one of the Twins top performers the 1st half. Kepler just isn't as bad as he was the second half when hobbled. Larnach and AK have a ton of potential, but also need to be on the field and able to play. Etc, etc. The Twins were one of the very best teams in all of MLB at getting a runner in from 3B, but near the bottom in advancing or scoring a runner from 2B. Where is the disconnect there? I don't know if the issue is horrible luck, a poor approach by the players or what. And you can't just clean house and turn over the entire team. Better health will help. But better roster construction will help. Sanchez's bat keeps regressing? Well, he's gone, so add one of the solid veterans out there to team with Jeffers. Garlick just isn't an every day option when pressed in to extended play? Then get a better RH hitting OF who is and can be. I don't think the player side of the roster is bad at all. There's a lot of solid players there. But different pieces make up a different puzzle. And I think they need do need to add and remove a couple of pieces for a different combination.

I like this idea, in theory. Actually makes a ton of sense and it's possible the Brewers might want to re-tool at this time. And while the Twins system is...depending on your perspective...a little short on pitching prospects or recovering from some bad/injured seasons, they have at least a couple arms the Brewers would probably like as well as some very interesting INF and OF options. And my opinion is, and has been, that the FO should treat the staff just EXPECTING that someone is going to be hurt or not ready. So I think an addition makes sense from a depth perspective. (And I like the look of the guys we have now, all 100%) But I'm tired of trading away prospects for veterans. Woodruff might just make a difference. So I'm not saying no. But how about spending some $ for a change and NOT trading away more prospects? Rodon for 4-5yrs at $25 per is simply not going to destroy the financial structure of the franchise in any way. Bassitt would come a little shorter and cheaper, probably wouldn't be as good as Rodon, but would still be quality and give us that depth.

Lewis, Martin, Lee, and Julien are very talented prospects who display everything we want and need. And all of them could be a part of 2023, or 2024. But none of them have arrived YET! So we want to debate trading away one of the best players on the entire roster for a maybe to open up another hole in the lineup? There is no way I would trade away one of the best hitters in my lineup, one of the better 2B in all of MLB, in favor of trusting prospects or bench pieces to fill his role unless I got something tremendous back. Arraez is a competent 2B. So is Gordon. But they aren't Polanco. With a little work, Julien just might be a Polanco replacement. But he's not there yet, despite great promise. Just now way I'm trading away one of the very best players on my team until someone proves he's ready to replace him.

I don't know what the FO has in mind, much less what they'll actually do. But as I've stated before, we have pretty clean books right now, and just as clean the following year unless we re-sign some guys to extensions: Gray, Mahle, as examples. If the time isn't right now, when will it be? Rodon, as an example, is probably $25M for 4 or 5 years. There is some risk to be sure, but that's not a $200M plus deal to decimate any franchise. IMO, though I like the rotation on paper and the young guys who have reached the ML level, and a couple who have had a cup of coffee so far, there are enough question marks that I just EXPECT someone to be hurt or not ready, etc. And yes, they might dip in to the secondary pool, which offers a handful of interesting options, and go depth vs big move. And that depth piece might be important and pretty good. But the team and payroll are set up to make one, good, fairly expensive deal that could pay dividends without having adverse affect in the future. The timing is good if they want to make a move like this.

I feel the $25M is applicable, but I did say 3-4yr plunge. And while I like Rodon, he was ignored before 2021 by just about everyone except Chicago and didn't have the big offers before 2022. And I get why, to some degree. But after the past couple if seasons, is everyone suddenly convinced? No? So I'm trying to weigh all of those factors together and think 4yrs might do it. But you're right that 3yrs won't get it done. 100% with you on that.

OR. the Twins could do this and bump the payroll a simple 5% and have enough to add a solid catcher and pen arm. With those additions you just about have my dream team for 2023. But I didn't do this for my blueprint idea as I just thought no way we make a pair of big moves like this. But I would love it.

A good post! If I interpret your post correctly, like me, you aren't sure about jettisoning Kepler at this point? To me, he's worth keeping for his defense and league average production while hitting lower in the lineup. They need a RH hitter who is not the "not quite ready" Celestino for an important part of the lineup. I think, when we talk about risks, we have to talk about calculated risks. I'm still very confused and conflicted about the Rogers trade. I wanted to keep him and add another quality RH RP to allow Rogers to just fill his role. Instead, they ended up with TWO holes in the pen with the flier on Paddack being healthy. Obviously it didn't turn out well. But after Rogers was pushed in to a role in which he shouldn't have been placed, he imploded. And Paddack imploded. And do we have to yet again rehash how the FO just falls in love with players? Ugh! I would have literally taken ANY other pitcher than Pagan against Cleveland at one point. As would we all at some point. BUT, can you imagine a still young, and health Paddack in 2024 looking really good and everyone screaming to re-sign him? May not happen, but I could see it. Risk? Maeda had some risk, but he was amazing in 2020 with some tweaks. He looked DOMINATE in ST 2021 before his arm gave out when the season started. Would we give up that amazing 2020? Mahle looked normal, went on the IL, looked fine, was acquired, looked fine, and then he didn't. He has no chronic history. He looked good when gotten. Then all hell broke loose. Doctor exams and 2 MRI's say nothing is wrong. Mahle says he's fine, feels good, and just had a tired arm because he didn't have time to ramp up correctly and over extended himself early. Is he right? Did the FO take a risk? Maybe so. And MAYBE Gray is in a similar situation due to his hamstring bothering him so much in 2022. I do believe the FO DOES take chanes here and there. But as a mid-market team, you have to at times, don't you? But man, with a normal offseason and some mean included, you have to wonder/speculate what those "chances" might produce with a healthy Gray and Mahle taking their normal turn in the rotation. Either or both could be extension candidates, especially Mahle. And again, what IF Paddack looks good in 2024? I get taking chances doesn't always work. But sometimes it does. Maeda in 2020. And sometimes it pays off later. But smart chances are what you have to try at times. Pineda is an example. Paid to do nothing for a year and then provided positive results. The FO has to do better, and be RIGHT! But sometimes risk DOES pay off and I agree they aren't afraid to take chances. BUT, there is a difference in risk. When your books are mostly clean now and near future, with talent on hand, you need to take the risk factor up another notch.

I really like most everything here. Really well thought out! I do think you're too high $ on Bassitt, who I like as a "settle" SP instead of Rodon. I would pencil Larnach in RF and leave Kirilloff out of any plans, as of now, and maybe move Merrifield to LF. (Less territory for Larnach to cover and he has a great arm). I think half of MLB would have loved to have Merrifield on their team over the past several years. Always loved the way he plays ball. Would Toronto want to give him up? How much would it cost to get him? Always thought he was a perfect fit for the Twins. You have a very good plan in place!