DocBauer

Appreciate the hard work done here, but as stated, the incentives here are realistic based on what is in place. I honestly don't recall if it was ever reported what the initial guaranteed AAV. But it was in the double digit category for sure. The issue was the incentives, obviously not reported, that was the issue. They either weren't enough, OR, were too hard to achieve. That's lead to speculation that the best option is to offer $15-17M AAV and have GP or PA or AB be the benchmark for incentives. As far as I know, incentives/bonuses can also be in play for All Star appearances, Gold Gloves, MVP, etc. He could earn anywhere from $25-30M. For a player of Buxton's ability and potential, he could easily achieve those kind of $ value IF he's just on the field. IF he's healthy enough to earn his incentives, NOBODY, including the Twins and their ownership, would object to paying that kind of money because he's paving the way to an MVP season and the team should be following him toward a playoff type season.

I'm disappointed if you are correct. I don't know what future he has, and his loss shouldn't hurt the system in any dramatic way. And he really seems destined for a repeat of AA again to begin 2022, but I think he has a shot as a useful 4th OF with defense and speed.

Thanks! Guess I missed that somewhere. Don't know how he is going to turn out, but I'm glad to keep him. We're short of young SS who can field and may actually be able to hit a little at the top of the system. I say that with all due respect to Lewis and Martin as I'm not certain if Martin can/will stick at SS and Royce is coming off his injury.

For the record, I'd really like Palacios and Whitefield back. Neither appears to be a top prospect, but both are worth keeping around. Palacios finally learned to hit and found some power. Whitefield has the defense and speed to be an interesting bench piece down the road. Wonder if Telis likes the organization enough to come back, or, is he looking for a better opportunity to maybe get actual ML time?

Wallner has certainly been impressive and I would expect he's starting day 1 for Wichita next year. The one bad performance doesn't diminish what Laweryson has done thus far. I think we have a guy to keep a serious eye on for 2022. Still unsure about all 3 LH's but there is obviously there based on their K numbers last year and the ability to get additional K numbers in the AFL. Jury is out, but I'm still intrigued. A little disappointed in Helman. As a good athlete with speed, budding power and positional flexibility, I thought he might build off of his 2021. SSS I know, but doesn't feel like he's taking advantage at this point and taking that next step.

Ted, we agree on Stroman and Gray and I have the 2 of them heading my 2022 rotation. I do have Gray for a higher $AAV but happy to drop down to $10M from $12-14M. We differ on the #3 option, however. While Mahle is a fine young arm, your proposal trades away a couple young arms that might be as good and ready as early as this season. And you do so for only 2yrs of control. Not a bad idea, but why not Cobb or Pineda on a 1yr or 1+1 deal to solidify the rotation and provide opportunity for the young arms nearly ready? I like the Holland idea as a cheap flier with rebound upside. But there are 3 or 4 arms I like and feel safer about for another few $M and I think I'd go that route to better secure the back end of the pen. Baez would be awesome. I'd love it! But it means keeping the bullpen add and 3rd SP at low cost and that's where I'm going to disagree with Baez coming on board. I think Stoman should sign for $18-20M. But it's going to take $22-23M IMO to get it done. And Gray has been good enough, is young enough, and still has some upside I think he's going to be $12-14M. I hope I'm wrong, but that's how I see it playing out. That's why I look at a filler SS that is a solid player and a better addition to the pen. Even then, the payroll is pushing for the extra 10% that I'm calling for with butts in the seats, 2020 behind us, and the FO saying they intend to be competitive. $140M-ish payroll is well within the financial parameters the Twins have spent in recent years, and fits comments made by the FO that they are looking at keeping payroll within recent parameters. And the only long term $ they are committing is to a couple quality rotation arms. Those two commitments should in no way handicap the near future. I just don't see a fit for Baez, or any other top FA SS, unless A] The Twins bump payroll to $150M, OR B] The Twins can actually, successfully, lower obligated payroll with a move of Donaldson and maybe Sano. Then, you MIGHT have room to add a top SS FA. Even then, it might take some combination of BOTH A AND B to get it done. I think the offense, and offensive potential is good to great.. I think the defense has a chance to be pretty solid as well. I think the team can compete as long as the staff is SOLID and the pen is SOLID. Neither has to be GREAT. But both have to be SOLID. Wish there was an easy/smart/lucky way for the rotation to be re-tooled and the pen have at least ONE solid addition and still leave room for one of those top FA SS. I just don't see it.

I actually like Bundy as a bounceback #3 rotation option. I almost put him in my blueprint. He was quality just a year ago, and was considered quality with upside when LA acquired him. Doesn't sound sexy but could be good as well as inexpensive. And I almost put Martinez on my blueprint as a bullpen option. It would seem the best way to re-establish him and get the most out of him.

My eye test has been seeing Arraez as a solid 3B despite some bad plays here and there. There is nothing great about him defensively anywhere, but I've always believed he's solid wherever he plays. This rating seems to support my eye test. So 3B and 2B are just fine with what we have on hand. Kirilloff should solidify 1B as the primary there while seeing some time in the OF. I've maintained I'd be fine with Simmons back at SS if I knew he'd be the OPS producer he was the previous 4-5 years. Otherwise, I think a change has to be made. But there are SS options out there that are solid gloves that have decent bats who could replace him. Really, other than 1B, the only spot to really improve defensively...can't believe I'm saying that after the first 2 months of 2021....is LF. And until someone steps up and really grabs that spot, it's going to be a mash-up if multiple players and the defense might be questionable at times. For now, I'm OK with whatever platoon makes sense there for improved offense and average-ish defense.

Just playing devil's advocate, the proposed package is a lot to give up for 2yrs. IF the QO remains, the Twins could have him for 3yrs. And that's intriguing to say the least! And I'm not saying he couldn't be re-signed, but if he keeps his proposed trajectory, that re-sign could be tough. That being said, I could jump on this idea with the 3yr window opportunity if it was Larnach, (who I really hate to give up), and ONE of Lewis/Martin with Canterino and maybe a low A sweetener tossed in. And I'm looking at both sides here, what the Twins are willing to give up and what the Reds want/need. Were I the Reds...not knowing their system but hearing it's not all that great...i think I'd be focused on Martin/Larnach, Canterino, and a Sands/Varland type of return for my re-build. I get 3 Twins prospects that are all probably top 15, at least top 20, coming in to 2022. The Twins MIGHT even throw in someone like Vallimont, borderline 40 man roster protect, but should fit in with them and their 40 man who could still be a ML SP, but who also has huge upside as a bullpen piece. Anyway you slice it, the Twins give up a ton and the Reds get some very nice high upside pieces. It's the only 2yrs guaranteed that bothers me. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather re-sign Pineda, or equivalent, another quality FA arm...debatable as to who for sure....and make a lesser deal with the A's for one of their available arms and add a quality arm or two to the pen and keep the majority of my system intact for another season. I feel doing that, as long as I don't just make "settling" choices, I have a team that can really compete. And I have so many good young players that are just so close to playing and pitching for the good nucleus I have in place that I'd just rather not make a move for ONE GUY at 2yrs right now.

I never fully bought in to the Twins having an outstanding hitting tandem at catcher for 2021 simply because Jeffers was promoted rather quickly and had a wonderful, tantalizing, but very SSS for 2020. I expected regression and some struggles simply because of that SSS. If we want to use an extremely rough projection, 50 grit sandpaper type of rough, we could compare 2020 and 2021 and figure out some medium that he can't hit .273 but he's also better than .199 so he's a .240-ish hitter with power and great defense. That's a quality and long career player who might even make a couple All Star teams. But he's almost a clone of Garver. A bat first draftee who hits in college, hits in the minors, shows power, and vastly improves his defense. IMO, he just needs a little time to learn, adapt, and make adjustments. IMO, though the Twins have needs on the hill, they need to keep both Garver and Jeffers. I believe moving either at this point weakens a potential and envious position on the team. And I don't like weakening the team at a crucial spot when there are other means to add. I am very encouraged by what I've seen from Rortvedt defensively. And while not a great hitter, he's made some solid progress with the bat in his time up the milb ladder. But like Celestino, he was pressed in to ML time too early. And I'm very pleased tbat he seemed to learn and adjust and take that to St Paul to finish the season strong. I think he's got a future. But his immediate 2022 future should be at AAA sharing time with another, solid AAAA veteran type to hone his skills. I think Jeffers is going to be quite good. And there's room for him to start a lot of games with Garver also spending a little time at DH. But you need to keep both right now, with Rortvedt and player "X" at St Paul.

Pretty much agree with the above from tony&rodney, but am ambivalent about the entire age structure. I still feel FA should be centered around service time, with the caveat that any manipulation of said ST should be done away with. A player reaching the majors could/should be a FA around 27-28yo. But I have a hard time with a player reaching full time status at age 25-27 becoming a FA after just 2-3yrs. What BOTH sides need to understand and accept is what is best for the growth of the game. For the owners it meets a more equitable split of revenue amongst all teams, similar to the NBA and NFL, for a better, more competitive product on the field. (Which can lead to even greater profits and better TV deals to greater fan interest from EVERY market). The players have to accept some sort of ceiling cap...hard or with some caveats...but with a fair FLOOR that forces teams to spend more and maintain better competition league wide. The high end players may end up losing a few $M, but the middle and lower tier pkayers would see an INCREASE in their paydays. Shouldn't the union be focused on the growth of their sport in the public eye and be focused on ALL players, and not just the top 20%? THAT is my #1 problem with the player's union. I'd love 15 minutes in a locked room with both sides to verbally slap them across the face to examine reality, remind them of their mutual stubbornness and short-sightedness, and reflect on the immense growth and popularity of the NFL and direct them sternly to adopt a similar thought process. I dislike the arbitration process very much. I'm not sure an algorithm makes that much sense as the very nature of the arbitration process is each side using their own versions of such to argue their side. (I doubt either side would accept a unified algorithm as each would find arguement how it is skewed in some manner). But what I've never understood is the CONDITIONS of arbitration when it comes to baseball. This is not a court of law. (Even then simple logic tells me their is room for compromise). As long as their is going to be arbitration, I would like to see the arbitrator involved have the power to force a middle ground settlement between the two parties. Perhaps their could be a parameter set where they can only do so if each side is a $1M or less apart. Or perhaps something along the lines of an increase or decrease of the "winning" party than can not exceed 25%, for example. Fortunately, even over the terms of different FO's, the Twins have seldom gone to arbitration, usually settling on their own, and have seldom had bitter disagreements. But I've never found it healthy to have both sides bicker and argue about who deserves what. While these are BIG TIME financial negotiotions that I want no part of and am certainly not qualified to be part of, it's always amazed me how reporters and we simple, intelligent fans can see the simple groundwork for the good of the game and all involved and the various powers in play seem to have a blind eye.

I'm encouraged by Laweryson and thinking he will make a Gross, Gibson-Long type of upward trajectory move in 2022. Not sure what to make of or what to expect from Funderburk and Featherstone. Neither is pitching great, SSS of course, but the K's keep coming so there is SOMETHING there to work with and be encouraged about. Great to see Wallner wasn't hurt badly and had a solid week with a great finish. Echo Roger's comment about Sisk, who we know so little about. Bechtold and Helman, as of now, are clearly utility types with some potential value, including some pop and speed in Newman's case. I don't knkw how they figure in 2022 or further, but I like that they, like their teammates, are getting some extra time to build for next year and hopefully use this experience to "springboard".

With all due respect to an amazing career, no on Kershaw. He's outstanding when on the field, but it's looking less and less like he can be counted on. I appreciate the Buxton reference, but disagree and find the correlation somewhat disingenuous. Sorry Ted. A healthy Buxton contributes daily vs every 5 days, with the injury proviso. I've raised the Verlander option a couple times in various threads and never got a bite. The Morris idea is apropos. And I agree Houston made the QO because they believe he's going to be at least solid. And I believe he would only cost the Twins their 3rd overall selection in 2022, if I'm not mistaken. And we all know the ML draft is a crap shoot at best. And supposedly, Verlander wants more than a 1yr deal. Or at least, there are rumors to the such, FWIW. Who can blame him. Hell, he might be 100% and pitch good to outstanding for another 3-4yrs. It's happened before, but not often. If he's game for a 1yr with the Twins, especially if they trade or sign for a quality #2 rotation piece, I could see some interest. There is a lot to like with the nucleus of the Twins with a few tweaks and he as the front end of the rotation. But despite him wanting more than a 1yr deal, I see him staying put and proving himself for a 2yr extension or similar after 2022.

Not debating your opinion or stepping on your post, just want to keep things real is all. Blackburn was a mid to end of the rotation starter, but a prospect, not a FA. Pineda has actually been very solid when he's been out there. Yes, there was the suspension issue and a couple injuries, but he's been a quality mid rotation option...sometimes flashing....when he's been out there. While not a true #1, the Santana signing turned out just fine until his finger injury blew up. Hughes found a different level after coming to the Twins and pitched about as close as you can towards being considered an ACE. He never should have received an immediate re-structure after that one year. But we can't forget to remember how good he was before his shoulder suddenly went out. Just...perspective and remembrance is all I'm saying.

In my 2022 prospectus I had the Twins signjng at $14M as the #2 SP. Maybe I'm buying in to hype, but I'm very intrigued by him. While not a STUD by any definition, he's been a solid mid rotation starter. Hes at the perfect age, IMO, where experience/knowledge really sets in. And with a change of scenery, a different voice, (Johnson), and a change in his mix I see the potential for a step up. The velocity is there and so are the K's. If his curve and change really do provide solid chase numbers, I see something that can be unlocked yet. Think Ray last year with Toronto, though I'm certainly not saying he has THAT high of a ceiling. But I think there's something there. That's why I said $14M per and get it done. (His salary also makes him potentially attractive as a trade option down the road if a couple young guys really step up). But if projections really have him at $8-10M per....which I think might be low...then I'd jump at the chance for $12M per at 3-4yrs every day and twice on Sunday. I don't think looking at Gray is targeting low at all. I believe, first and foremost, the Twins commit to someone like Stroman for $20-22M for someone to lead the staff. But after that, IMO, Gray is a perfect "buy at lower value" still with some upside, that could pay off nicely. And I think that's the kind of pitcher they should be targeting. I think he's a logical step up from Pineda, who I have for about $8M as the #3 in the rotation.

Going to, unfortunately, repeat previous comments/opinions. As simplistic as it may sound, signing a guy to front the rotation is not the issue, IMO. Stoman remains my first choice because it just makes the most sense. Though there are obviously other options i couldn't disagree with. And Pineda as the #3 also re-signed for the same reason. In my plan, I went the FA route for the #2 spot because trades are just so hard to speculate. Plus, if you have the payroll to add without subtracting, then why wouldn't you do so? I still maintain finding the #2 guy for the rotation is the hardest part of projecting the 2022 rotation. I sti) think it's 50/50, maybe 60/40 we add a quality rotation piece for next season vs a FA. But, IMO, it has to come from the prospect side. I just can't see trading from the ML side of things and weakening a spot. Again, think a Odorizzi or Maeda type of trade.

I have enough of an opinion to just be dangerous, LOL. But seriously, different people have different interpretations as to what a bench coach should be. Some feel it should be an older guy who's been around for a while, probably managed for a while, may have more gray in his hair etc. Think a Gardenhire type, for example. You also have the Shelton type, who was generally applauded for his work and experience, but who's work was not as ML manager, but as a coach and long term milb manager who still brought experience. The late Mike Bell was the most recent selection for the Twins because he had experience at the ML and milb level as well as working with the FO in different areas. He was young, experienced in different areas, and seemed progressive in his approach. Also young enough to embrace new age analytics. Tingler is basically a clone of Bell in many ways, except for actually being a ML manager. He has experience in and across different variations of milb, the DSL, the FO, speaks Spanish, and before the Padres season went to dirt in 2021, lead SD to a quality season in 2020. I don't know Tingler from a random name in a phonebook, but I'm smart enough to see a familiarity with the FO, a history of experience that is BROAD, and from THAT, he seems like a good hire. A disappointing 2021 with the Padres, IMO, shouldn't be a disappointing disqualifier as to his ability as a bench coach. Much like a player needing a change of scenery, I won't, at this point, believe he is unqualified or bad as a choice because of a disappointing 2021 with another team vs the rest of his resume. We'll see what happens. But his overall resume seems pretty varied and solid.

I agree with keeping both at this time. Yes, trading either or both provides at least some salary relief. But with each you are also having to eat about half of their salaries to get a marginal or low level flier prospect back. If lucky, you might find someone willing to give up a quality RP option either proven or just at the beginning of their career but having flashed and seemingly ready. Donaldson is the harder move for me. He proved in 2021 he is still a very good and dangerous player. He also brings experience, leadership and a bit of fire to the team, though his "spirit" sometimes makes him a target. And like last year, he needs to spend some time at DH to keep him fresh. I'm OK with that. I think Miranda is going to be very good. But he's still a rookie. I think Arraez is also fine at 3B on an occasional basis. But the clubhouse and lineup just looks better with Donaldson on board, IMO. I just don't think you get enough "value" back by trading him and eating half his salary. Now, if someone really likes him and is willing to trade a low A flier and take on all of most of all his contract so the Twins can make a serious move for a top SS, then the conversation changes. But there still isn't enough room to make a move for one of those FA SS, with pitching being the top priority, unless Sano is also moved for full, or mostly full salary relief. And what are the odds of BOTH of those things happening? I'm OK with being inventive and creative and aggressive. I just don't know if it can happen the way we might fantasize it happening. Balance sheet wise, I think both come back as part of 2022. At least initially.

MOSTLY agree with previous posts that I have "liked" with some small descepancies. So I'm going to roll with some bullet point opinions here: 1] 1B will be manned by a combination of Kirilloff and Sano. Call me crazy, but from the eye test, Sano isn't as bad as his metrics show. He catches everything close to him and scoops very well. He's fine with pop-ups as long as he doesn't run in to his teammates. His biggest issue, to me, is still forgetting he's not a 3B any longer and being out of position at times. Things like that can be learned. AK looks so good there, it's probably his position of the future. 2] I've seen enough, briefly, that I think we need to just stop with the idea that Kirilloff CAN'T play the OF. He's at least OK out there. We've even seen a couple really good plays from him. He's just more natural and smooth at 1B, which is not a bad thing, and he has a great future there, IMO. 3] If you noticed, when AK and Larnach were both in the lineup, AK was in LF and Larnach was in RF. Why? Larnach has the better arm. Eventually, IMO, Kepler MIGHT be gone in a year or two, depending on his production/development, and Larnach will then slide to RF. But Kirilloff is NOT just a 1B. He can easily play some LF for now. 4] And speaking of Kepler, I am opposed to him being dealt in any way unless he's part of acquiring someone special. Hes an outstanding RF with power and a much better hitter than he showed in 2021. Even if he never duplicates 2019, again, he's much better than last season. And healthy, no more hamstring injuries that surely held him back, he's a solid backup option in CF as well. LF is an issue. I don't want to exasbhrate problems in the OF by adding RF to the mix. 5] There is a quasi-illusion to the Twins OF depth. They HAVE talent and prospects. AND possibilities. But we are talking again about AK, Larnach, Rooker, and Celestino for the NOW, vs some quality and very interesting prospects in AA and below. Where this all meets is undetermined at this point. Rooker may yet surprise, with us or someone else. Larnach is going to be quality, IMO, but not sure it's going to be out of the gate for 2022. Celestino was pushed WAY TOO EARLY, but responded well at AAA when playing where he should have been. Martin may be destined for the OF with the ability to play the infield. But draft choice to AA and then MLB is pretty tough. But this leads me to my next bullet point... 6] The 2022 Twins have enough pitching issues to worry about and fill without worrying about LF. Trades may happen, but this spot should not only be an open competition, but also be part of the 1B and DH options. Arraez should still some time in LF. I don't believe his knees are an issue running around on grass fields 75% of the time. And he's no worse than some LF, past and present, Twins or other teams. Rooker could find his stroke. And defensively, what I said about Arraez. AK can fit in at LF and so can Miranda, who we just HAVE to find room for! And Larnach could pretty much blow the whole thing up and take the primary job if and when he's ready. In MY blueprint for 2022, I found room for Pillar on a cheap 1yr deal that could fill the 3rd spot initially as well as the 4th spot and provide depth and options as Larnach and Celestino adjust and get ready to grab hold of a job. Health and development, I have some high hopes for LF, as well as 1B, related. Just don't give away what you already have.

I'm interested in Gray. Despite a solid career, his best numbers/results were with Oakland early in his career. But I'm very interested in this idea. My issue is I think...assuming the Twins find a #1 somehow, and there are multiple possibilities and options available...does Gray really slot in as a viable #2? He could, especially only 31yrs old and experienced. And maybe the Twins see a few changes that could unlock a little bit more. But I just see him as a quality #3 in the rotation. I just feel someone like Pineda as a re-sign for the #3 spot, and probably for a couple $M less, just makes more sense. Just not sure I buy in to Larnach and Canterino as a fair trade option. Wallner and Gross or Gipson-Long might make more sense from the Twins perspective. Maybe with a sweetener thrown in. I just don't know that Gray is worth 2 top 15 prospects for a re-building team trying to lower payroll for a #3 SP.

Came up through the Dogers system primarily, as a SP, with a little time with Oakland. Solid numbers as a SP in regard to K/9, WHIP, as well as hits vs IP. Looks like he missed a little time here and there in milb. Decent FB and has a slider and a change that is hopefully good enough to keep LH hitters honest. I'm encouraged by his 2021 AAA numbers after missing 2yrs and his September finish which was outstanding. Smart flier pick up. And remember, this is what happens this time of year. Moves are just beginning to take place. Lots of little moves like this take place for every team, not just the Twins. And half of the signings of this type get waived again with the hope of sliding through. And sometimes you get a steal. Nobody needs to feel anxious about an early November flier pick up.

Assuming for a moment no QO to either, and/or no draft pick compensation, (which I think the Twins are OK on using the current CBA due to the location of their 1st rounder), I'd probably go with Rodon. If for no other reason than the fact he's already had his TJ and came back to the mound with guns blazing. As of this moment, we just don't know enough about Syndergard's full recovery. I'm 100% all in, healthy, for a 1yr at $18-20M. But I'm nervous for anything more and think there are good arms, solid arms, available with better health records. And I'm not sure I want both Buxton AND my potential top of the rotation SP to be big injury risks.

I know Nick talked about a trade for Manaea from the A's involving Kepler. Makes some sense, but I don't see the FO trading anyone for a 1yr player based on history. And we've rehashed over and again about trading our catching depth to Miami for one of their pitchers. That just doesn't make sense to me unless the Twins truly believe they would be OK with Garver or Jeffers being gone and everyone else on hand is ready to take the lead as a starter or backup. But wouldnt we need to bring someone else in to balance and add to the roster? Other than another Oddorizi or Maeda trade out of the rabbit's hat, I just don't see a way to add to the rotation without at least ONE major FA signing.

As someone who follows the Twins milb system very close, I'm embarrassed to admit I hadn't realized how good of a season Morales had as the catcher selection. I'm going to assume Isola was chosen at 1B not only because he qualified there, but because you couldn't select 2 catchers? Maggi deserves the choice at SS, only mildly surprised Palacios wasn't the final choice. I'm very excited about both Steer and Julien. Both could be outstanding bench players within the next couple of years with bats and defensive versatility. I keep wondering about defense, especially in regard to Steer. I keep wondering just how well he can play SS. I've seen guys grow in to the position and become solid, if not very good there. Could he, possibly, be a darkhorse candidate down the line? Would really like to Cabbage and Contreras in the organization. Just don't know if there is room on the 4p man for either, much less both.

Tom, I guess my question to you, which you sort of hinted at, are you looking at Cobb as a secondary acquisition? Because if he's the primary addition then I have to say no. I don't trust the injury history, or feel there's enough upside to make a difference. I'd prefer Cobb as a #3 SP option but could be convinced he'd be a solid #2 if the health question/gamble turned out. While his career W/L is uninspiring, as is his career K/9, most of his overall numbers are solid across the board. He could be that experienced, veteran guy that just suddenly stays healthy and starts to perform the way he always "could have" before, even at 34yo. It happens. We see a guy like that almost every year. Forgetting what I believe will be an approximate $140M payroll for the team to re-tool and compete and thus have the money for a quality FA signing to lead the staff, my biggest problem trying to figure out 2022 is the #2 spot. Is that filled via FA or trade? My gut tells me Pineda is the #3, and it's an easy play, as you alluded to. I can be talked in to Cobb. You make a compelling arguement. And I'd LOVE Gray, but recent rumors say Colorado may offer a QO, assuming they can with the CBA up in the air. If that happens, the Twins are out unless their pick next year is protected. (Want to say it is, but am not sure). I think Wood and Matz might be safer, and I do like a bounceback from Bundy and Duffy. But again, you've given me a lot to think about and I could be talked in to Cobb. Nice OP!