DocBauer

I've been critical of some of the moves the FO made this off-season, or more to the point, some moves they DIDN'T make this off-season when I felt opportunity was in their favor. And I think that's only fair. If I'm going to be supportive of them, as I have mostly been, I think it's fair to me/us to be critical as well when we see things we either don't like or don't understand. I'd like to think most of us, myself included, are fairly intelligent in our opinions and critiques, But I've always maintained that being an amateur GM doesn't allow me/us all the perspective and information or perspective that those in charge have. And I stand by a few complaints/issues I initially had as a semi-intellegent fan, even though I stated I liked a lot of things about this team. But I have to tip my cap to the FO for what they have done thus far. I know it's a long season, but just about everything they've done thus far has been SMART. I can't help but break down a few points as discussed here. 1] The rotation has been crazy good, even with limited IP. Including Bundy's bad Friday, the rotation has what, one or two games that could actually be called "bad"? Can Bundy keep it up? He's never been the ML SP prospect hopes held in store after early injuries, but he's flashed good for some bad teams, and even flashed greatness in 2020 and part of 2021. Has he learned, grown, and been influenced by Johnson and the Twins to "level out" his abilities and just be a solid, quality SP yet again? Early results say yes. But what if it's a mirage for only part of a season? (NOT saying it is!). Then he buys time at the WORST. Archer has been a find! And credit to HIM and his handlers to get healthy and prepared as much as the Twins for taking a shot. He looks as good as he did in his heyday and only needs to continue to ramp up IP over the next few appearances. Paddack has me wondering what is going on in San Diego. Or, again, more to the point, how many kudos do we give to the FO, Johnson, and the rest of the staff to just be better/smarter to see talent and potential and work with it for the best outcome? Because the early returns are very encouraging. Ober has looked as good as last year before his groin issue. Hopefully he's back soon. Winder has looked good out of the pen and then had a tremendous 1st ML start today. Oh, BTW, Ryan looks like one of the top SP in the league so far. What in the world happened to early reports he was FB heavy and deceptive but his secondary stuff was in question? I'm NOT going to anoint him to some title this early in his career, but he's throwing 4 pitches consistently and getting results. Maybe the FO and staff are smarter than we thought? 2] I felt the offense had a chance to be very good. There were question marks to be sure. I was most concerned about Jeffers, Sanchez, Urshela and AK, but had hope for ALL 4. Jeffers has been flashing big time and getting in a groove. All I asked for in regard to Sanchez was to actually improve defensively as he claimed to be working on while just hitting .225-.235 with his customary power and .300 OB. Well, he's done that, if not better. Change of scenery? I never realized how good of a glove Urshela had. I can't wait for Miranda to be part of our future! But now I'm looking at how Urshela fits even with Miranda for depth and roster flexibility. AK, IMO, is huge to the future of the lineup as a fixture at 1B, who can still play a solid OF, and be a high quality bat in the middle of the order. I've also believed Larnach could be an important bat but honestly didn't expect him to look this good this soon after he tailed off last season and then lost the rest of 2021 due to injury. He looks like he's ready to stay, so I'm uncertain about AK, when ready, and how the roster looks going forward. And that's a GOOD kind of "trouble" to have to deal with. But I HAVE to make a special note about Kepler. What is happening with him? He's always been an enigma despite his talent. He's a great RF and good CF who has a good eye and sweet swing who has just never been better than "good" other than 2019. A couple of seasons, milb and MLB, he hit LHP, but other years he just flaild against them. I used to argue he was at least a full year behind other prospects, despite his results, due to his introduction to baseball coming from Germany. But he kept climbing and producing and then 2019 happened. And then he suddenly regressed. Suddenly, now, fully healthy and 29yo, has time, experience, and coaching suddenly taken hold? He's suddenly hitting LH again, and even hitting the ball the other way. Are we seeing a final maturation of Kepler? Man I sure hope so! 3] I understand and yet hate the Twins approach to building a bullpen. For the most part, they've been successful. But at some point, you HAVE to have the arms you can count on. And right now, this is the ONE part of this team and it's success that concerns me. Losing Alcala really hurts. Lewis has been a great addition. Duran looks like a potential stud and difference maker. Pagan has the ability and proven results to be a solid piece, despite a bad outing recently. But right now, despite a strong April and good start to the season, and some good games, we are still "sorting out" the pen. Duffey and Thielbar have the stuff and experience to rebound and be part of a playoff team. But they better figure it out soon. Rosters are going to be reduced soon. And unless something changes, there are a couple of guys at AAA that may force the FO to make a change. Because right now, despite "decent" BP production with a winning record, the BP is the one potential weakness of what could be a legitimate playoff team.

Thanks! Can't believe I missed this. Damn cold! So he gets well in warmth and sunshine, gets a few milb AB, and comes up as the weather turns ready to rake? I like the way you think!

Ober's not going anywhere if healthy. Being a pragmatist, Ober is still young/inexperienced at the ML level. It's still possible he hits a rough patch and needs a re-set at St Paul at some point. (Though I doubt it). As much as I like Winder and believe he's part of the future and is ready now, Ober isn't going anywhere. He's going to be in the rotation for the next several years. He's good.

Winder looked outstanding. His stuff Plays, but his composure and approach really catches my eye. Really, EVERYONE is starting to hit and contribute, and not just bombas. And even though Polanco has been a little late to the table, a stat today showed he has been hitting .280 with 7/8RBI with RISP despite his slow start. This is the offense I expected, with the exception of Larnach in AK's spot. Kudos to Rocco, IMO, for having faith/patience and not giving Sands a quick hook. It would be understandable, despite the lead, to do so considering facing a good team on the road and not wanting to take any chances. But once Sands got that first K he really settled down. He flashed the stuff that makes him a top 20 prospect and finished strong.

Can't believe it, but I was very "out of it" all week trying to work with a really bad cold bug, what happened to Sano? I completely missed it somehow.

1] Since his transition to 1B, I've seen Sano make a few bad plays no doubt. But he's been solid overall and great with his stretch and digs. I have no real complaints other than some bad mental gaffs at times. And history has shown us that Sano WILL get hot and straighten out and put up some good numbers, even carry the team here and there. No question his slow starts are maddening. I think there are 2 camps in regard to Sano, those who understand and accept, and those that just don't like him and never will. FWIW, I think he's gone after this year. AK, Larnach, Miranda, possibly Martin, there just won't be room. 2] One thing I learned a long time ago whether it be luck on something, an easy sale, or winning a game on a fluke play, you NEVER apologize! Because it's "owed" for all the times bad luck or extreme effort wasn't enough, or someone just made an extraordinary play to steal a game away from you. In 2021, a season when anything and everything could go wrong DID, the Twins were on the other side of weird plays. Again, NEVER apologize for a win. You were the better team that day. 3] Forget Sano for a moment, Kepler and Jeffers are heating up. Eventually Polanco and Correa will as well. Larnach is starting to look like he's figuring it out. This lineup has the potential to be at least top 10 in the AL. 4] Speaking of defense, it's been pretty damn good. I can't wait for Miranda to heat up and be part of the future, but I'm loving Urshula's glove and professional AB. Correa has been as advertised with the glove. Polanco looks great at 2B. On and on. Even Sanchez hasn't been awful at catcher by any means. And please, stop ragging on Arraez after a couple bad plays. He's an OK 2B and pretty solid at 3B. A couple bad plays doesn't diminish good past play. But I love him at 1B and have questioned before why he wasn't used there before now. He's not ideal length for the spot, but not every 1B in history, even some very good ones, were over 6 foot plus. (Funny how Arraez is compared to Carew so often as a hitter and is now playing 1B). 5] Never saw the rotation being this good, even with hope. Can it continue? Paddack is getting better. Ryan and Ober are young and part of the future. Archer, even in limited IP, looks an awful lot like the very good pitcher he was 3yrs ago. Can Bundy keep doing at least close to what he's been doing? And Winder looks like he's ready if anyone goes down. 6] Bullpen is my only fear at this point. We didn't add a quality arm to help Rogers, and then we traded Rogers. And now Alcala is out for how long? It's not like everyone is a dumpster fire or have been bad. And Duffey looked much better last time out. But this is the one area that scares me still.

Have to be both concerned as well as simultaneously hopeful for Kirilloff. He has such a bright future if his wrist can be OK, and can be a big part of the Twins future. Without being any kind of expert, I think we've all seen guys have a procedure of some sort and it just seems to take longer than hoped/expected before things are "right" again. And then after a few months, sometimes the next season, it's as if the body just heals and adjusts and compensates and suddenly everything is fine. Sure crossing my fingers. I think Moran has a bright future but just isn't ready yet. Thielbar seems healthy and his velocity seems the same, so I'm still expecting him to figure it out. I think Smeltzer is going to be up at some point. And he could have a good role in long/middle relief. Boy would it be nice to have 3 solid LHRP. What a luxury! The problem with Smeltzer is the same as with Minaya and others, they could help and we're going to need help at some time. But the 40 man is so crowded we still need time to see who's going to grab a job and keep it.

I'm uncertain as to the context of Correa's comments. Did he simply volunteer his love and enthusiasm? Or did someone ask him about his early impressions and a desire to stay? And understand, I think his comments were probably genuine. I've been very pleased by his attitude, leadership and even deference toward Buxton. I think he and his comments were genuine. But honestly, would you expect him to say something less? Would you expect him to say he's planning on opting out and looking for a bigger, longer term deal? Of course not. Again, I think his comments were genuine. But there has to be a reality check in regard to an extension. His idea of a 10yr deal now becomes an 8-10yr deal ask with 2022 already settled. Even as a great athlete, great work ethic, and great health, odds are very much against him being a high quality SS after his age 32 season, give or take slightly. Which means an over pay for his last 2-3yrs as a 3B/2B...possibly DH. Make no mistake, there IS a difference gambling on someone like Donaldson at 3B for $25M who can DH or play 1B as his range slips, vs paying Correa $30-35M in his mid 30's and no longer a SS. There are a handful of teams that can, do, and have "eaten" vast amounts of $ late in a player's career to have the first 5-6-7yrs of peak performance. The Twins simply can't afford to do that. But in regard to the OP and what the Twins COULD do? Well, it does depend, of course, on Correa and his agent. Would he be willing to be locked up until age 34-35? That would mean a 7yr deal. Would GUARANTEED $ of say $210M...in addition to the $34M he's making in 2022...get it done? That's a combined $245M over 8yrs by the end of his age 35yo season. Would that GUARANTEED money and happiness and security worth vs looking for that "extra" be worth it to him? Because that's the absolute max the Twins could afford, IMO. And I think it's a safe opinion. OPTION #1: How could the Twins afford it? Well, it would be nice if incentives were included, but I don't see that happening. But with projected growth in revenues over time, money coming off the books, and a large group of young and inexpensive players and pitchers on the rise, the Twins have the ability to front load the early years of the deal, keeping him in that $34-35M range before sliding down to the $20-25M range later in the deal. OPTION #2: I have ZERO doubt that the Twins and Correa weren't honest and earnest in their 3yr deal, despite the opt outs. Otherwise, why not just do a 1yr or a 1yr with an option of some sort? So how about tearing up the deal, make it an ADDITIONAL 3-4yrs at the same value, toss in some incentives for ALL STAR, MVP, games played, etc, which adds value and plays in to the "front loading" the deal and allows Correa to still walk at age 30-31? Combined with 2022, he gets a minimum of $170M+ with the opportunity to sign with someone else while still young enough to earn a second payday. This hedges injury or sudden decline, or sudden changes in the market while still offering future big earnings. IMO, these are the ways both parties "win" and Correa remains a Twin for most of his career, or at least the second half of his career. Both sides are fair, and both sides win. The only way either of these scenarios work is Correa is really and truly in love with the Twins, Minnesota, laying down roots, and looking to be a part of something long term, and content with massive amounts of $ and peace for himself and his family. Option #2 is probably the most desirable, but option #1 the most practical. And barring something unforseen, I just don't see either scenario taking place. I am going to enjoy watching Correa in the field and at the plate in 2022. I am going to enjoy his cajoling the infielders to work hard through his work and leadership. And when the rest of the bats heat up along with him, and the pitching hopefully holds up, it could be a really fun season. And then I will wish him well, except against the Twins, and will embrace Lewis at SS in 2023 and all the young talent on hand and coming up.

First of all, injuries like this happen. Keeping Garver or not keeping him does nothing to dismiss Jeffers and Sanchez being out a few days with reportedly mild "tweaks". We would have promoted Rortvedt at this point, were he still here. And while it's pointless to get in to some debate about the future potential of Rortvedt, the Twins basically added Godoy as a temporary LH, defense first replacement pretty much the equivalent of him. My only concern is that Jeffers was heating up and I don't want him out for more than a day or two. Doesn't sound like he will be out any longer, and the day off Monday helps. Also doesn't sound like Sanchez's issue is big, just a muscle "twitch/pull/etc" that should have him ready soon. Of course, we've heard these things before. But I'm going to go with what the Twins are reporting. It's been pointed out, and rightfully so, that the reason to promote Godoy is greater familiarity with the staff over Cisco. Point taken. It's also been pointed out he could be sent down while remaining on the 40 man should the Twins choose to do so. Equally relevant, there is a chance he could still be removed from the 40 man and pass through waivers and return to St Paul. Call it a hunch, but I don't think the FO wanted to play any waiver games with Cisco at this point. I know very little about him other than having previously been a top prospect. While having limited power, his career milb numbers are pretty darn good. I think they view him as a longer term fill in vs short term, with some potential still, and are willing to gamble on a potential loss of Godoy when they have to make roster decisions. By all reports, this should clear itself up the next couple of days.

I want to say YES based on his sudden rise that really crested in 2021. He was OUTSTANDING and reached a new level. Then he got hurt. Then he came back and finished about as well as he began. He's as good or better now than 2021. He's as good or better than anyone in MLB, including Trout and anyone else you want to compare him to. Forgetting injuries, when he's on the field, there are as good, but nobody better. And from year to year, an arguement can be made between a small handful as to who is best. Do I care if he's the best? Not even a little bit! He's ONE of the very best and that's all I care about. And he's ours for probably the rest of his career.

I understand that hope and expectation vs poor early results is very discouraging. Believe me, I'm as disappointed and discouraged as anyone at this point. But despite current production...or rather the lack of it...I don't think it's unreasonable or overly optimistic to fully expect the lineup to turn it around and be at least average, if not above. While we can debate, and probably all be right to some degree, as to how they should appear in a lineup, I think it's safe to list Arraez, Correa, Polanco, and Buxton as the 4 best overall hitters on the team. And I'm not so sure Buxton shouldn't be the cleanup hitter most days. I think, despite arguements of gaining an additional AB here and there hitting #1, and a supposed loss of SB opportunities, I think it could be argued he'd be more productive in the #4 spot. Again, we can debate the best lineup, but those 4 should generally be our top 4. Does anyone really doubt Polanco and Correa will crank it up? Losing Kirilloff really hurts and there is no way to sugar coat that. Larnach's BA is poor right now. But as a recent OP addressed him, there are peripherals showing he's chasing less, hitting the ball hard, and is showing improvement soon in total numbers. I sure hope so. I think he is part of the future despite being rushed somewhat. I sure hope so as we could really use him with AK out. Sano has been as bad as he's ever been. But with little exception, he's always figured it out after about a month and ends up the year with quality production. Frustration is an understatement, but he's part of 2022 and is more than likely going to be his normal self when all is said and done. I think Jeffers is a work in progress. He's hit in college, hit in milb, has flashed as a hitter at the ML level, and absolutely has good power. I don't think anyone is expecting him to be the Twins cleanup hitter. He's a quality defensive catcher with power and hit potential as a really good bottom third batter, potentially. Kepler is just never going to be what we all thought and hoped. And he's coming off a couple bad seasons. But he's still under 30yrs old, athletic and talented and fully healthy again. There is, or should be, hope that he just gets back to previous norms. If he just does that, he will be a mediocre hitter with a decent OB, and 50-60 XB power. Just being his normal, previous self will be just fine. After a slow start, Miranda is coming around at St Paul. And I think he's the future at 3B. And that future will probably come sometime before July. But I have been impressed by Urshela thus far. He plays a good 3B, takes good AB, and has shown some power the past 3yrs. I like him better as a quality reserve, but he's OK/solid. All of this to say I can see some very, very good hitting talent on the way in 2022 and the next couple of years. But there is more than enough talent and previous production on hand to just see this offense turn it around and be good. I do think the guys on hand are "too much alike" in their approach where it's all about power and launch angle. And that's where some of the young talent coming up, and a healthy AK, might provide a more "level" and "balanced" approach to the future of the lineup. But for NOW, I just don't know how you can't expect the current offense to return more to the mean and be average at worst, if not downright good.

It's almost tragically funny/ironic that the two guys the team, and us, felt best about to begin the season, Duffey and Thielbar, are off to the worst starts of anyone. Duffey showed poorly last year before actually throwing pretty well from about June on, though he wasn't quite as dominate. Ditto for Thielbar. But experience and history, you probably still felt pretty good about those two as PART of a 5 man late inning pen with Rogers and Alcala and pitcher X. And there were so many options for middle relief, you felt pretty good there. The Smith signing only added to optimism for middle relief with what what was on hand. And I despise repeating myself again, but if we're going to address the situation yet again, I'm forced to also repeat myself again. I am 100% on board with the Twins not spending $10+M on a single RP. But there were so many quality, proven RP options just sitting out there to add to Rogers and the rest of the potential pen to make a difference on a 1 or 2yr contract. Instead, we sign Smith, nobody else, and then trade Rogers for Paddack, Pagan, and a flier. And maybe that trade will turn out great! There is potential for it to be true. But when do we stop looking at "value" vs NOW? Alcala was supposed to be part of the pen, Duran an amazing possibility, Duffey and Thielbar part of the equation. But now, instead of taking a small risk on a proven arm for $5-7M to join Rogers, we are down 3 arms with the Alcala injury. Who could have seen this? Virtually ALL of us just looking at need, opportunity, and projected payroll. Duffey and Thielbar might right themselves. Hope they do, and soon. I was surprised and happy when Colombe and Minaya signed on milb deals. I don't hate the arms on hand. There is some real potential there. And part of me "gets" building a pen. But at some point, you need a couple arms you can really count on. We didn't sign a late RH arm...is the FO still scared about the Reed signing?...and we traded Rogers because they wanted "value" vs a proven commodity for 1yr? At some point, you just can't build a pen on projection alone. A few $M needs to be spent to make sure the BP is quality to "compete". Duffey, by himself, or Thielbar, doesn't make or break the pen, or the season. But you can't win a season by losing too much in the first 2 months while trying to piece things together yet again. Yes, the early offense is probably as much to blame as anything for a sub .500 record. We have missed countless opportunities so far. And that is part of the equation to be sure. But I can't help but believe Duffey's and Thielbar's early struggles are a short sighted mistake vs having additional strength by just addressing the pen.

The highlight of my mornings is reading about the affiliates and seeing who did what and even scanning the box scores. And a big shout out of thanks for those who take the time to file those reports and to you, Seth, for providing roundups like this and all the information you provide. I know it's an exaggeration on my part, but if you went down the entire list of the Twins top 50 prospects, I'm not sure you could pick more than 2 or 3 guys who aren't off to good to great starts. And between some injuries and the lost 2020, there's quite a few guys, especially pitchers, that we don't know well YET that are doing very well. With all due respect to Banuelos, Isola. Morales, and Camargo...all of whom have some good qualities and at least some potential to turn out to be solid ML catchers despite not being TOP prospects, Mack is the best hope, IMO, to be an actual, starting caliber ML backstop. I'm very excited to see his bat coming around, even if SSS. I am, however, disappointed in the career thus far of Chris Williams. With his arm/shoulder healthy post draft a couple years ago, I had real hope he'd be a real "comer" as a prospect. He was a great hitter in college, with power, and I've heard he's really good behind the plate. BTW, what's up with Camargo? Nice hot start to the season! Seth, I know next to nothing about Chance Cisco. He hasn't done much at the ML level, but his milb career numbers are excellent, despite a general lack of power. Do you happen to have a good rundown on him?

Nick, nothing you said here is inaccurate in any way. And I could extoll my opinion for the 4th time how the FO was short-sighted before the lockout...seemingly too fixated on the Buxton extension while already KNOWING needs for 2022, and at least some semblance of projected payroll even with a Buxton extension in the works...and missing out on opportunities presented to them. Post lockout, there were still some interesting BP arms out there that they seemed to ignore, despite available payroll and need. But I will or will not choose to address that at a later date somewhere. For right here and now, I'm just concentrating on what I've seen in 10 games and a 4-6 record against 3 good teams, amidst some really bad weather conditions. Granted, everyone plays in the same conditions. But some players just respond to poor weather better than others. Unfortunately, one bad grip, one bad slip in the field, can make a difference here and there. THE GOOD: 1] I have a lot of belief in Gray, Ryan and Ober. I don't expect miracles. But Gray is very good. Ryan and Ober seem to have the stuff, presence, and confidence to be very solid to very good SP. We're seeing that. Like EVERYTHING, good and bad, we are talking SSS. I fully expected Bundy to do a reverse Happ. I expected him to move to a new team, have a short ST while Johnson and the staff work with him, and look pretty bad while making adjustments. He would then be at least "solid" if not better. Instead he's come out of the gate already solid. Experience and a short tease? Or does a solid end to 2021 and veteran experience while still ramping up and working with Johnson at least keep him solid, if not better, as time goes on? I've been pleasantly surprised through 2 games. Archer was a bigger flier to me, though with higher upside, if he could be healthy for the first time in 3yrs. His personal testimony and try-out results/numbers gave me at least some encouragement. And he was quality his first time out. A chance more is yet to come? I just didn't expect much from Paddack his first turn. And I've seen worse to be sure. Despite fantasy lovers looking at "value" in the trade, I wouldn't have made the move for him. But I can't deny his stuff, his prospect status, his rookie season, only 26yo with 3yrs of ML experience and 3yrs of team control, and the chance to work with Johnson and others to take a step forward. Also encouraged by Winder, but that's part of point #2. 2] Relief pitchers are the most volatile of all players, except for the elite. Though even those have bad days. But except for a couple of bad performances, we saw some flashes and very good IP. Duran, despite his early season 6.00 ERA, has EMBARRASSED ML hitters and been dominant except for a couple hard hit balls. Repeat what I said in the Monday game thread that I hope he can still learn some kind of change, splitter, or cutter to add to his splinker, and what appears to be a mid 80's power curve, to maybe move to the rotation again. But he's looked potentially DOMINATE at this point, without being nervous. And remember, he missed 2020 and only pitched 16 innings in 2021. Kudos to Rocco and stuff to trust him. I would have thrown Winder in earlier, but he's looked solid, and looks like he belongs. If his long relief appearance the other day had been a GS, we'd be raving with optimism. Coulombe has looked solid. Should we be surprised? Jax looked today, Monday, like many of us thought: intelligence, confidence, stuff for a couple of IP. Optimism for depth, options, and veterans rounding in to form. 3] The lineup has flat out not produced as expected. They have flailed and failed too much at this point. So why is this "GOOD"? Because this is NOT going to persist! Correa and Polanco are both outstanding hitters. Sano ALWAYS comes awake after time to be a .800÷ OPS hitter with dangerous power and puts up solid numbers by season's end. Because Kepler is just NOT as bad as 2021 and his early start this year. His production has almost always been at least league average. Because Jeffers has so much potential, has power, and his career from college to milb to the ML says he will hit. Because Sanchez...who I wasn't crazy about...is already hitting better than he has the past couple of seasons, while improving his defense, and still showing glimpses of his power. Urshela has played great defense thus far. And his 2021 was solid. We're OK if he repeats 2021, and better, much better, if he can ramp up to is 2019-2020 self. THE BAD: (REVERSE ORDER) 1] No matter Gray, Ryan, and Ober, Bundy and Archer are still wild cards in the rotation. CAN Bundy actually be the amalgam of Baltimore and 2020 Angels SP where he got some Cy Young votes? Or is he a placeholder for Winder or someone else? Is Archer 100% healthy and ready to rock and roll and take his health and experience and surprise everyone by being a quality #2, or at least a quality #3 SP for a potential playoff team? It's happened before. Or is he also just a hopeful placeholder? 2] The lineup just shouldn't be this bad. Buxton is a stud, so is Polanco, and so is Correa. By pure hitting standards and OB, so is Arraez. And while he should never be counted on the first few weeks of a season, and while he will always be "streaky" in his production, Sano will always, eventually, be a big power number producer with a .800+ OPS who should never hit above the 6 spot until about June. Kepler should always be in the bottom third of the lineup where he can be dangerous, slide up against a RHSP, and just be what he is unless he suddenly adapts as a hitter, a quality RF and average hitter. Jeffers has REAL potential as a hitter with power and good defense. I ABSOLUTELY believe there is potential there as a hitter with power, but we just haven't seen it yet. Sanchez has power and a .300+ OB despite his offensive struggles in recent years. And he's been been better than I thought he might be. There is hope. But LF was SUPPOSED to be held down by AK. He should now be ready, talent, limited experience, and opportunity, to be the LF for now and future permanent 1B. And his entire career may hang in the balance over the next few weeks. So it's opportunity time for Larnach to step forward and SEIZE the opportunity. Can he do it? And despite his supposed ability to to hit LH pitching, is Garlick the RH hitting option we need in the OF? And despite his talent and potential in the OF, and despite his impressive 11 pitch AB today against Boston, shouldn't Celestino be in AAA to develop? Despite early struggles, this lineup shouldn't be this bad. And it won't be I'm sure. But this team is clearly needing an OF who hits RH. And that's been true since last season ended. And right now, we have Garlick. 3] I believe you can build a bullpen. I've believed that since the Tom Kelly days. And it doesn't matter if you don't have a "traditional" closer because over the past 10yrs we've seen that you need "fireman" for lack of a better term. Now it's "high leverage " pitchers. But the Twins needed another RH leverage pitcher for 2022 to join Rogers to be "competitive" in 2022. And instead of signing one, we traded our best one. I still don't get it. Paddack may prove me/us wrong. Pagan and the development of Duran may prove us wrong. Alcala was being counted on I'm sure. And now his future is in doubt. I just don't understand the Cotton move other than they felt nobody else might pass through waivers and they liked Romero better? I do believe the offense will come around. I don't know if Larnach is ready or not, but I sure hope so with AK out. And unless Urshela gets his offensive game together soon, Miranda better crank it up. While I think the Cotton move was a sily desperation move to play the roster, the Twins are going to have to make some hard moves soon, or be left in the dust. At some point, Minaya and possibly Smeltzer are going to have to be brought up. We'll see. The pen seems to be the biggest weakness right now, allowing the lineup to figure it out.

Watched most of most of the game, if that makes sense. I didn't see the reported hard contact on Bundy until the 6th inning, but liked what I saw. He seemed to be mixing up his pitches well and moving the ball all around, keeping Boston hitters on their heels. Not sure if he lost his control or was running out of gas when he went out for the 6th. I never hated his signing...have been hoping for an amalgam of his best Baltimore days and his 2020 with the Angels...but I didn't like him as the only early addition. Agree with puckstopper1 to be guarded and remember Happ's early 2021. But I am not displeased thus far. Smith did great! I have been so pleasantly surprised by Duran. It would be pretty easy to look at his 6.00 ERA at this point...SSS...and the run he gave up today...and wonder about his readiness. But he has made professional hitters, and some good ones, look absolutely silly at times. Even today, he still struck out the side. Despite all his talent and potential, he didn't pitch in 2020 and was limited to only 16IP in 2021 due to injury and obvious caution by the Twins. He does not look intimidated or out of place. I'm still hoping that 3rd pitch...what is that, a power curve?...could be augmented by some sort of change, split, or cutter to make him that much more dangerous, and maybe even pull a Santana-like move and go back to the rotation. But for now, he looks like a potential crazy BP piece. I was genuinely surprised by Jax. And I actually liked him going out for the extra inning. I'm sure he had a short leash, but with a lead, and him throwing well, I liked the call to build his confidence and save the pen. He wasn't perfect or electric, but he showed some composure and flashed some really nice pitches. I don't know what his future holds, but he's intelligent and has some decent stuff that plays up in a limited role I think. I didn't think Larnach's throw in to 3B was all that bad. Just a hair better, and the tag is made. Urshela missed the initial tag, but should have gotten the runner on the over slide. The bats did the job today and special notation has to be made for Celestino's appearance in, what was it, the 8th? That was guts and determination. I think he saw 11 pitches that AB! Despite being under .500, I am VERY encouraged by what I've seen so far against 3 good teams. Could easily be .500 or a game above with better hitting and one less BP blow-up.

The bad news is April could be a tough month. The worse news is Kirilloff and Alcala are already out for an undetermined time. (I've heard no updates at this time). And now, Buck may be out for a handful of games at best. We're also unsure how good the pen might be, and seem to still be missing a decent RH hitting OF. It feels like the team isn't "complete" yet. And that might be true. And I'm not convinced the FO is done yet, but we'll see. The good news is the team isn't quite "complete" yet, or hitting on all cylinders yet, but have still looked good. So as of today, we're 3-4. The rotation has been better than expected, despite SSS. Bundy and Archer were better than expected in start #1. Ryan was OK his first game, and great in start #2. Ober wasn't great, but OK, and again, ONE START. You can feel good, or bad, depending on how you want to view things, but the 2 worst bullpen appearances were the 2 most experienced and dependable guys. But if a pair of counted on guys have a couple bad games in the first 6 games, but everyone else looks good, what do you really have to complain about? We're still talking very SSS after a week of games. The offense hasn't been fully clicking yet, to be sure. And we've blown some opportunities that ONE HIT could have easily flipped the early record. But really, except for 1 game, IIRC, we've been in every game through at least 7 innings. It just feels to me we have a potentially good to very good team, but everyone is sort of still "settling in" and getting their legs under them. There's been a lot of change, the majority very late in the offseason. If the Twins can keep their heads above water for April, I think they have a chance to be pretty damn good based on talent on hand, young talent on hand and close, and the ability to add a player or two to add.

Wish I could have watched the game, but alas, work. Great way for Sano to break out of his early slump. (Hopefully?) He's in great shape and seemed to have a good ST, is the problem bad weather and he can't get loose and comfortable? Seems that Ryan was DEALING. Not going to bang on Duran's bad 8th inning, especially if I'm reading correctly the defense did him no favors. But regardless, bad IP happen to everyone, much less a rookie breaking in. So far, SSS, Sanchez hasn't looked bad behind the plate. Certainly better than what I expected. A healthy roster, I still don't like him in the lineup daily. But after today, he's hitting .227, and that's an improvement over last year. If he can maintain that...heaven forbid he improve and look like the Sanchez of 3yrs ago...with his power and career OB of .300+, I'm OK with him. But without additional improvement, I still like him as a DH occasionally, and not daily. That should be Arraez's spot when not in the field. I just don't know Pagan well. He had a couple solid first years, and then a great year for Tampa in 2019. His 2020 ERA for the Padres was mediocre, but the rest of his numbers were actually good. While there has been some debate here on TD, my understanding is that his 2021 was actually really good before a late season "collapse" of about 10 IP that hiked his final numbers. He's looked good thus far as a Twin, SSS. Did we maybe get a pretty decent BP arm out of the Rogers deal? Lastly, and most importantly, I hope Buck is OK. He was in pain, to be sure, but I think his "ground pound" might have been more frustration than anything. (Hope that's true). The fact that he seemed to walk off without a limp or anything obvious gives me optimism. NOTE: While I don't feel Garlick is any kind of answer, up for a few days, I wouldn't be too down on him just yet. He was OK in his brief 2021 with the Twins before he got hurt. Still, I just have to believe the FO has the smarts to make a trade of a non top 20+ prospect to acquire a RH OF from someone either flush, or looking to shed payroll, or not expecting to contend and willing to get something back on an expiring deal.

What issues would I want addressed, other than RP? Well, unfortunately Mike, RP is part of what I believe should have been addressed, as well as other areas, including the primary point of this discussion, the need for a RH OF. [Larnach is LH, Lewis is a SS, Miranda an INF/3B, and Martin has yet to fully transition to the OF and I don't believe is ready with his bat just yet]. My reference to having a shopping list is, I believe accurate. Even with the Buxton extension being a MAJOR issue, thankfully resolved brilliantly, the FO had to have at least somewhat of an idea what the cost of that extension would look like in AV, otherwise they would have balked. Next, they KNEW their needs: 2SP, SS, 1RP minimum, and a 4th OF of some sort that hit RH. And the OF didn't have to be able to play CF necessarily with Kepler and Gordon able to fill. In the bigger picture, Celestino is getting ready, and there are a couple of guys at AAA for "break glass" situations. And despite some of our private thoughts on what the 2022 payroll might be, we didn't know. But the FO did, and they are around where they have been for the past few years, which is pretty much what the FO said they would do. So with all that information, why didn't they spend some of the money they knew was built in to their budget WHILE negotiating with Buxton? Those needs weren't going to go away, unless they did a complete 180 and began a much larger re-tool/re-build? Without needing to go in to specifics, there were a handful of quality SP options available that didn't require $20M+, or longer than 3-4yrs. Nobody that would have broke the bank or disrupted the 2022 payroll. Post lockout, they could still have made the Gray trade, and suddenly the front end of their rotation looks very different, and offers more concrete hope. The bullpen, IMO, even without traditional roles that are becoming less and less important, needed a quality RH arm to work with Rogers in late inning situations without having to bank on the rapid development of Alcala and Duran. And I'm NOT talking about some multiple year $10M deal. But there were a lot of solid, proven RH arms that just sat for a long time that were available. No offense to Smith, who was a good and inexpensive middle innings addition, but the $ and opportunity was there for someone better to work with Rogers. Not going to address SS because they did address it, and then re-addressed it post lockout in a way I just can't argue with, and won't. But there was a definite need for that RH OF to give AK and Kepler days off and to address the need against LHP. I believe it was Nick, but can't recall 100%, who commented it was a "quiet concern" I believe. I think it wasn't so quiet. Betting on Rooker or Garlick was no answer for a team wanting to compete. And rushing Celestino was also no good answer. Via FA or smaller trade, there was a real need for someone to fill that role. And look, I'm just spit-balling here as an example, and I have no honest idea what the guy has left, but even if the Twins did what the Dodgers did and sign Kevin Pillar to a milb deal with a small MLB salary, I would have had more hope for him contributing in that role instead of Rooker and Gadlick. Through FA or small trade, it just shouldn't have been hard or expensive to add and cross off a real need that the roster clearly had. Hence speculation now of signing Upton with hopes of decent OF defense in the corners and a bat that might play for quite more year in the sun on a team that has a chance to be competitive. I like a lot about this team. I really do. And I would be happy with either Bundy or Archer as a flier. Hell, dust settled and smoke cleared post lockout, the way things turned out payroll wise, the might have still been able to sign both! But I think my shopping list and the store closed analogy is very appropriate. Right now, they'd have a more proven 1-2 veteran, proven punch in the rotation. They'd have what they have at 3B and SS and Catcher. But they would also have a realistic RH OF option, a proven RH late inning arm, STILL have Rogers, along without trading hardly anything from their prospect depth. Sportrac's projected payroll for 2022 has the Twins at about $132.264 right now including the IL, primarily Maeda there. By being a little more aggressive early on, and taking advantage of other opportunities and needs as mentioned, they'd be in the $140's, maybe pushing $150M. Based on 2021 numbers, that would place the Twins somewhere between 15th and 11th based on 2021 numbers. Based on 2019 numbers, it would place the Twins around 15th to 12th in total payroll. So based on the past two full seasons of MLB, if the Twins were just a bit more aggressive in their moves, they would rank just slightly higher than the MLB payroll delta. For 2022, as of now, the Twins rank 17th in payroll. If they had been just a little smarter, a little more aggressive and addressed that damn shopping list as I've described, they'd be sitting, right now, 13th with the Giants and probably just behind the Cardinals. We'd be way behind Toronto, Houston, Atlanta, the Dirty Sox and others. It's not just about payroll. We've seen that over and over again. And Atlanta last year is just a recent example. It's about being SMART! [OK, sometimes luck comes in to play with a sort series and players being hot]. And I have been SO supportive of this FO for so much that they have done and accomplished from re-working the entire system, and been so supportive of ownership from 2020 covid and milb and about everything...but as a fan...and an intelligent human being... I also reserve the right to question if they have made a mistake or just blown opportunities. I think this team has a chance to be very good. And we all may be surprised by the pitching staff before all is done. And I don't speak about 6 games in regard to 182, but I DO think the FO BLEW some opportunities. And right now, I'm more worried about the pen than the rotation.

I'm still trying to figure out why Cotton isn't worth keeping around after 5 days but Rodriguez is the better arm? I can only assume they were going to drop someone no matter what for Upton/Garlick and promoted Rodriguez for a day or two as an extra arm before also being dropped. Just really disappointed 1 or 2 more known issues weren't addressed more aggressively before the lockout as well as after. Feels like someone couldn't find the shopping list until it was too late and the store was closed.

I've argued for some time that "dumping" Donaldson with $ or prospects spent to rid the Twins of his contract was a huge mistake because he's a quality hitter and quality defensive player despite his lower range. The guy has great hands and a great arm, despite his limited range. And he more than proved himself yet again with the bat in 2021. He remains a fine 3B defensively, with limited range, and a potentially big bat. BUT, Correa, even for 1yr, replaces Donaldson's offense and defense, especially considering we are talking SS vs 3B, though I value both spots as being almost as important. So did the Twins actually downgrade as much at 3B as they upgraded SS? Isn't that the real question? Time will tell. But when you add, for 1 season, one of the best SS in all of baseball, who's offense pretty much matches what you could expect from a good Donaldson, plus add Arraez at 3B, and Miranda waiting in the wings, have the Twins really downgraded at 3B? The Urshela at 3B from 2019 to now is good to great defensively. The Urshela addition is offensively great to good. With the Yankees, ST, early returns from 3 games played, he can play the position very well. In fact, considering his ML experience at SS, I might be inclined, if I were Rocco, to just keep Polanco at 2B and let Urshela or Gordon play SS for a day to keep a better status quo defensively rather than move Polanco. He is a late blooming, quality glove player who has potential to make a real difference for the Twins in 2022. He has a great glove. He has hit ability. He has power. He has experience. But his future potential is limited. Unless he surprises us beyond expectation, how is he not just a good placeholder for Miranda, with Arraez being part of the equation?

I am always in favor of BPA, period. That's what you do with your 1st rounder, especially when you're drafting as high as the Twins are this year. I don't believe in drafting for need, however, if you "score" 2 players nearly the same, go with need. No way to know how the draft will proceed once the time comes, but there are a pair of really good looking catchers available and it would be a good bet that at least one of them will be available for the Twins. There are some good defensive catchers in the system. Some have surprising athleticism and can even play other positions. Some have power potential. Some even have decent hit potential. And we drafted a couple fairly early last year. But there is nobody in the system that you can point to and say: "a couple years, he's going to be really good and ready." My interest and hope is one of the catchers, who have bats and power, to be another Jeffers, hopefully. Need meets talent and opportunity in this draft.

I have to begin my thoughts by making a couple of precursor statements: 1] Rogers has never been a/our "closer". He was/is a high leverage "fireman". And that's NOT to diminish him! Modern analytics...and just history and basic logic of watching baseball...has shown a diminished value in a SAVE. A save with a 2 or 3 run lead in the 9th with a "closer" facing the bottom 3 of an order is not as great as a "fireman" facing the heart of the order before that to keep the game in check. I could be wrong, but I think it was Cleveland pen and Andrew Miller, recently retired,who really changed this perception a few years ago. Tampa has also embraced this change in recent years with great success. So it's not about a pure "closer" in the old sense, it's about having high leverage arms who can make things happen in the late innings as needed. 2] Being a broken record, I've been stating over and again that the pen could be just fine with a healthy Rogers AND a quality RH version to work along side him. I never asked for or expected some $10M+ 3yr deal. There were enough proven arm on the market to add for somewhere around $5M-ish on a 1or 2yr deal to add so Duffey could just be a reliable arm, Alcala could continue the transition to dependable late option, Thielbar could just keep doing what he's been doing, and the middle innings could be in good hands with the arms available, whether or not the Twins transitioned Duran to the pen on a temporary or permanent basis. Instead, we traded Rogers and only signed Smith as a veteran middle guy to fill the role that Clippard was so good at. For those who want to debate WAR or F-WAR, or any other metric in regard to the pen in 2021 and how it finished, and it finished strong WITHOUT Rogers, Colome was part of that and pitched well after May. Duffey, still here, figured it out and was still good despite a lowering of K numbers. Minaya and Coulombe were also part of that 2nd half pen. I was surprised Minaya wasn't protected, and glad he's back. Also happy Coulombe is back and doubt he won't be part of the team in 2022. And I get roster crunch and players you want to hang on to for potential, but we were lucky that both of these solid vets decided to re-up. NONE of my comments have ANY weight after 2 games to open the season against a good Mariners team. Let me be perfectly clear about that! This was 2 games! Duffey could be as good as ever after today, though he, like everyone, has bad moments. We should actually be pretty excited about what the first 2 games showed us. Despite less than ideal weather, just first appearances, the pen has been solid. Ryan and Gray weren't necessarily on top of their game, but they were OK. I am not going to hang Duffey out to dry for 1 game where he looked bad. But I AM going to hang the FO out to dry in a few weeks for NOT adding ONE quality late inning arm to add to the pen with or without Rogers still around. As to the OP in general: Romeo/Cotton: They're both here on a temporary term because the Twins want to see what they can do, vs Minaya. Romero hasn't thrown yet. Cotton did well today. I don't trust either, but I'm inclined to like what Cotton did when healthy last year and still surprised Texas just let him go. Both are on a short lease. Coulombe is not on as short of a lease. He's had a decent, OK of a career. But overall, by the numbers, his 2021 Twins term has been one of his best seasons. When does Moran develop enough to make him obsolete? For that matter, a healthy Smeltzer had a great ST. Coulombe may be a part of 2022, and he's off to a great start with his ST and 1st appearance, but when is he replaced by someone younger? For right now, I like him as a mid innings pitcher. Thielbar struggled early in 2021, like everyone, and that should be commented on, but like Duffey, he figured it out and suddenly was very good, yet again. And he still looks good. I actually have a lot of confidence in him. His ML lifeline may be limited, we'll see, but he sure figured out the whole complicated "pitching" part of MLB. I trust him in the 6th and 7th innings. But as good as he's been, he shouldn't be an 8th inning guy. Smith is Clippard in retro, and partially Thielbar. Proven and can do the job in the mid innings. Awesome. Pagan is a guy I admit to know nothing about, except for BB Reference and what I've read here. Great 2019 and mediocre since. Apparently, despite a poor 2020 and final 2021 numbers, he has an arm. His reported 2021 had him on a quality trajectory of a season with a low 3 ERA before he collapsed in his last 10÷ games. I took a few minutes to actually look at his numbers. I don't know that we got some kind of surprising stud back, but you also have to look at the numbers. By all reports, he took his career numbers in to August and then had a meltdown his last few appearances. He can either climb back up, or, succumb to his late 2021. He's a WC, and I sure wouldn't put him at #3 on the list at this point. But he could surprise. Duffey is NOT the #2 guy unless he suddenly finds something else. He's been a stalwart, and sort of re-invented his approach in 2021 to finish strong. And that actually comes from a Rogers comment. He's good, and I bet he will be good, But I'm doubting his "fireman " status at this point. I hope I'm wrong. But I think Alcala and Duran will prove to be the STUDS of this pen for 2022, at least eventually. And I don't doubt the middle relief has some great options, including Winder to get his feet wet. But pen wise, I'm optimistic but scared. Right now, we have arms and velocity and options. And we might be OK. I hope we are. But just like the rotation, I'm afraid we lost an opportunity to add an arm who could have made a difference.

A nice list and I can't disagree with any of your choices, but man, at each stop there some very good choices to sort through. I'm going to cheat and go with a pitcher and position player. AAA: I absolutely agree with Lewis. I'm going with Balazovic for the pitcher, just ahead of Winded and Duran as both have "graduated", at least temporarily, to MLB and I'm not sure that both don't spend a lot of 2022 with the Twins. AA: Martin showed some very good things for a rookie missing 2020 and jumping straight to AA. He showed hit and OB ability that is very intriguing. But there is so much room to hit even better and to add power, with a healthy wrist and some adjustments. To me, it's a virtual tie between SWR and Canterino for breakout pitcher. Taking nothing from the super talented SWR, I'm going with the older Canterino being healthy and charging up the system and prospect rankings. A+: I am so very tempted to also select Severino as my player pick. The talent is there, and his huge jump after jumping from Ft Myers tells me he's ready to take the next step. But I can't ignore the bat and power of 3B/1B Encarnacion-Strand. In a toss-up, I'm going with CES. Povich just has to be my choice for breakout pitcher here. A-: I am also going to jump on the Hajjar bandwagon. Just makes too much sense that he's the guy. But position player wise, how do you pick from Rodriguez, Miller, Rosario and even Cavaco? Healthy and a year of maturity, Cavaco could surprise. No matter how talented and no matter all the initial glowing reports on Miller, he's a rookie. Rosario was the short season top player last year. But I am going to go with Rodriguez. His second year state-side and "used" to pro ball and Ft Myers now, he's my breakout position player.

And I'm not going to disagree with you. And I can certainly understand our FO not wanting to make a 7yr commitment to a SP. There is a sound logic behind their reasoning. But they were willing to go 7yrs for Buxton, for a lower yearly guarantee, but more per if and as he hits incentives. Now, a healthy Buxton is amongst to top 5% of players in all of MLB to be sure. But if there was ever a time to make an extended deal with a SP, Berrios should have been that arm. He was only 27yo at the time of the trade, a model of consistency and health and work ethic. And he has remaining upside yet. I think a strong argument could be made he ranks in the top 25% of SP in MLB when you take all of that in to account. I know opinions vary. And I'm not trying to hijack the thread by any means, but I think the context of my thoughts do address this trade and the need for it. To take it a step further, even with the Berrios trade done and over, we needed SP, and there was money available for 2022, even with Donaldson on the books still. And I understand the FO was locked in on a Buxton extension last fall. But there was opportunity and finances available to make a solid, quality signing for 3-4yrs for a FA SP that wasn't necessarily a TOP FA that was as good as Paddack might be. And they could have/should have been able to multi-task the Buxton negotiations AND still jump on opportunity to add an arm before the lockout where we wouldn't have to have made this trade to begin with to add to the rotation at this point. And again, I hate using revisionist thinking, but this was all in play before the lockout, when the "hot stove" even began. So it's not just 20/20 hindsight viewing. I just think it behooves us to fully examine WHY this trade was necessary when there was real opportunity a couple months ago. And I'm NOT trying to be a downer about what we gained, and the potential of what we gained, or be a downer on the Eve of opening day, but I think a thorough examination of where we are and how we got there is more than fair for us as fans. I have largely been a big supporter of our FO for everything they've done on and off the field. But as much as I support them, like them, understand moves that have and have not worked out, I've always tried to be honest and fair in my evaluation of them. That being said, their offseason has turned out OK. But I re-state I think the FO have handled this offseason haphazardly, seemingly uncertain what direction they were going to take, and I'm optimistic this is a pretty good team with some potential, especially if a few things break right. But I do think they've missed some opportunities early that could have made this offseason even better.

To be honest, I have very mixed feelings on this trade. And with the dust PROBABLY settled now to begin the season, I'm very confused by the various actions and in-actions of the FO. As to the trade itself, Paddack is a "C" level SP at best at the moment. But I absolutely understand/agree he could be at "A" if they can figure out what happened to make his FB suddenly so hittable. The change and curve look nice, he's young, under control, inexpensive, has experience, and has already flashed how good he could be. I get it. I'm very, very hopeful. But while I no longer conform directly to traditionally defined roles in the pen, preferring "firemen" or "high leverage" arms vs the old fashioned, traditional slotting system, I felt thr Twins needed another quality arm to join Rogers and Duffey and Thielbar to seal the back end of the pen. That way, you aren't relying too much on Alcala and Duran and others at the moment. They brought in a good middle man instead, and now the back end of the pen has been weakened. I'm not saying we have crap in the pen or it might not work out, or guys might not step forward, but I already felt we might be 1 arm short and now we may be 2. And I don't know enough about Pagan to even comment, so I will let that go. While I dont want to be a hypocrit by doing something I always state can't be done fairly, with everything that has taken place, I just can't help look back and wonder why we didn't just keep homegrown and super reliable Berrios for 7yrs and then trade for Gray. Wouldn't that be a better 1-2 punch? I'm crazy excited to have Correa over Donaldson, even if it turns out to be 1yr. But even with Donaldson being a bit of a question mark, would the Twins be better today with him and Garver and Rogers and a fill-in SS for 2022? I'm just asking the question because I'm excited, I like a lot about this team, I love still having a bunch of young kids getting ready to debut, but this while offseason plan feels really haphazard to me and I'm honestly not sure if this team is better from a pure roster construction standpoint. Keep in mind, I generally like and support our FO most of what they do and have done. This whole offseason has just felt there wasn't any real plan in place. Good luck to Rooker. I think this is a new opportunity for him he probably needed. No way you take a talented young arm like Ober, who has a future here, out of the rotation to make room for a veteran flier.