DocBauer

Busy 48hrs so late to this OP. A lot of very interesting posts made and just not enough time to address each one directly as I might prefer, so I'm going to make a couple bullet point comments while leaving Martin out of the conversation for what should be obvious reasons. 1] I think AK is going to be very good. I can't and won't try to explain his poor 2021 ST. But he looked downright dangerous when he was brought back up. I think he's just fine in the OF, though probably only average. TODAY, he might be the Twins LF even though 1B is probably his destination. Not because he's a poor OF, but because he just looks so fluid and natural at 1B. I HATE making comparisons to established players, but I think he will be "Morneau-like" as a hitter and defender. 2] I think Larnach is being under-sold due to his poor performance after his initial introduction. He wasn't quite ready enough, or polished enough, to stick. Tom did a great comparison recently that in their first 50 games in 2021, Larnach actually was as good or better than AK. He probably has the better arm. He won't be Kepler defensively in RF, but will probably be as good or better bat with as good or close to arm. Being rushed and needing a re-set after a great initial audition shouldn't diminish his potential. BTW, a lot of what I just stated about Larnach also applies, in slightly different ways, to Jeffers, Rorvedt and Celestino. Rooker....he has opportunity and now he needs to prove it. NOW, on to Lewis. Defense: I have NOT watched him daily. Not sure how many of us have. He has the athleticism, speed, quickness, range, and arm strength to make all the plays. I've seen enough hilights and ST games here and there to witness he has the ability. So if the only real problem is just making sure he can make the "routine" plays, then I'm not that worried. Routine plays come from experience, work, and even coaching. It comes down to positioning and basic fundamentals. There is also a mental aspect that means you have to engaged each play. I doubt anyone doesn't believe in Lewis's work ethic and dedication. So if routine plays are a concern, they shouldn't be. BUT, you only get better the more you play! Further, just as a side note, if you've ever taken time to examine the milb and early career defensive numbers of past great and established ML SS...and 3B...you would see a propensity of errors early in said careers with little exception. Offense: Lewis has inate power and speed. He seems to have "bat" ability, or has at least flashed it. In 2019 he was working through an injury and I'm sorry, but I can't recall right now what it was. A wrist? The FO saw enough, believed enough, that they promoted him to AA where his offensive numbers were nearly identical, though not great. Seemingly fully healthy, he was sent to the AFL but was forced to play various spots besides SS. All he did was hit like crazy and earn MVP. I read where someone stated the AFL doesn't have good pitching. I'd sure like to see proof of that as the AFL rosters have always been considered A+ and AA equivalence prospect and milb wise. We honestly, unfortunately, have NO IDEA, how good Lewis looked in 2020 at the alternate site. We hear good to great reports. But is that defense, offense, BOTH? As fans, we just don't know. But at least he was playing a little and being coached. At least he didn't lose 2020 totally. But then 2021 happened. And it STINKS! He is the most exciting and talented player the Twins have drafted since Buxton. I BELIEVE in the kid and his talent and his future. What I don't believe in...as a cautionary person...is that he's some kind of bust if he isn't ready mid 2022. LET HIM PLAY. I would start him out at Wichita and play him daily and promote him to AAA as soon as he looks ready. And I would be extatic if he was ready late in 2022 or ready to compete in 2023.

Hey Mike, sorry I didn't respond earlier, but I got busy and the thread was getting derailed from Miranda. But I felt bad not responding to you. It's not that I don't think Story is a bad ballplayer or that I don't want him. And it's not that I want ownership to pocket unspent money. In fact, I WANT them around $150M and I think they can afford that. In fact, as I've stated before, I'd be excited and optimistic if they DID sign Story. My concern is the financial cost of $20-23M for 4-6yrs for which version of Story we'd be signing. It's been argued, against my trepidation, that his significantly lower OPS on the road vs at home in Coors Field...I believe it's a good 100 points or so...is dismissable as most players have a lower OPS away from home, and sometimes a Rockies player might even make adjustments on a road trip over time away. Not an unfair point. HOWEVER, NOT playing half his games in Coors Field as his home park makes his "road" career OPS in the lower .700's that much more important to me, IMO. Now we're talking Target Field as his 81 HOME games, along with another 81 road games, ALL away from Coors Field and the influence on his career numbers. I'm sorry, but committing $20-23M for 4-6yrs for a good SS with power and speed ability, but an OPS that seems to be defined by his previous park and would appear to have low .700-ish threshold sounds like a potential "over buy" to me. Tom made a great comment in one of his podcasts a couple weeks ago that it's a GOOD THING if Lewis proves himself and becomes everything we want and hope and believe in, AND we have Story. I couldn't agree more! But I am cautious, maybe overly cautious, for allocating those funds on that sizeable commitment when a solid stop-gap might be in play and maintain that financial flexibility for future additions and extensions 2023 and beyond. So I am NOT anti-Story at all! But again, I have trepidation.

Hit a bad button and lost my response. GRR! Have to regroup. LOVE the post!! Agree JD is no reason to not sign Story. But I will contend that I'm not sure signing Story is the right move. JD's contact will be gone in 2+ years regardless if traded or not. And currently, there are no major financial obligations other than Buxton which are fair, manageable, and incentive based. IF the Twins signed Story I would be happy, hopeful, and I would be crossing my fingers. First, he's a quality SS. Second, he provides power and some speed and SB opportunities, much less an extra base opportunity. But unless I'm mistaken, his career OPS away from Coors Field drops significantly about a 100 points to somewhere around. 720-740. With good defense and power and decent speed he's absolutely worth something. But $20-23M for 4-6yrs? I'd have to pass on that! I LOVE a comment Tom made on a recent podcast that having Story "in the way" of Lewis proving his worth is a good problem to have! But I'm really struggling with Story being worth the $ value being placed on him. And I think that is part of the reason he wasn't part of the FA frenzy that happened before the lockout. I'm 100% behind you in regard to letting prospects "force" their way on to a roster. There are those few talents, like a Mauer, where there is really no decision to be made. But they are few and between. Miranda had one of the best milb seasons EVER in the system. And one thing a lot of media forgets, he wasn't some flier mid or late round surprise. He was a young early round selection the Twins have just been waiting to put it together. He did that in 2021. But when you look at a roster crunch to begin 2022, what do you do if everyone is healthy? Forget service time because it's not always about that. IF the roster is healthy, Miranda is best served playing daily at St Paul and coming up as probably the 1st guy. Hell, even Arraez has more experience in LF than he does. Don't make another "Sano to RF just because" experiment. IF he doesn't just rake and "fit in" to a different position, LF, then for his sake and his future, let him play daily until opportunity arises. And it will. Of course, injury or trade will adjust the roster. AK is the future at 1B. It may not be the beginning of 2022 depending on trades. But it's his eventual home. But don't mess with Miranda. I agree with that. Play a few spots that feel comfortable and just wait for openings. And they will come/happen. And it could happen from day 1 or a month in. But don't mess with what you have. Defensively? Gaetti, Koskie, Plouffe, 30yrs of quality 3B who weren't supposed to be good there but turned out to be good to outstanding. Focus on Miranda being a 3B and he will be just fine at 3B. But it's OK if everyone is healthy and ready to go whenever this lockout nightmare ends. Just let him get his stuff together and be ready.

That 3rd pitch coming together is the key. And it seemed like it was happening last year. I'm also encouraged by 97IP in 2021 when so many guys had sore arms at one point or another that held them back and limited them. The AAA club is not just about prospect status. Sometimes a team wants to hold on to a couple AAAA guys as fliers and depth pieces for the parent club. Guys do get promoted from AA ball. So I wouldn't be shocked if he gets a month at Wichita just to put rosters in place and sort everything out. Now I think he's ready for St Paul and that's where I'd place him. But prospects and depth pieces, I wouldn't be shocked or angry if he got that 1st month lower. My hope is that he's in AAA to begin the season. He has the stuff and potential to be very good. And this FO hasn't been shy about promotions. I think he's more than ready to finish working on his stuff and gaining additional experience in St Paul. He could be a mid-season call up.

I'm of the general opinion to be risk adverse on a high draft selection and draft the very best player available regardless of position. And if that player is at a position of depth in my system already, so what. Get the most talent you can and sort it out later. Where I'm OK taking chances are later in the 1st, like Petty this year. That being said, sometimes a player falls in your lap and the risk/reward has to be considered. But a potential injury, or one waiting to happen, holds true for every drafted arm, yes? Let's say Boras is being genuine here and the recent medicals match previous ones. Your team's staff will have to make the call that he's sound and they don't see an abnormal risk. Maybe the Mets were spooked by something the Twins, and other teams, wouldn't see or be overly concerned with. But it does seem a bit odd that the Mets, with all their money, would back off. But if he pitches in independent ball and looks great and is as healthy as can be, would he even be available for the Twins at 8? Would someone pounce on him? There's a lot to like in Rocker for sure. Now, if he doesn't look great, or refuses to be thoroughly examined, it's a hard pass without even blinking. Let someone else take a gamble late in the 1st and take the risk. Not sure I see the stars lining up here. He pitches great and the medicals check out, he might be gone by 8. He DOESN'T pitch, for whatever reason, then I'm skeptical even if the medicals do look OK. He's rusty and I have the feeling something is being kept from me. Maybe he's just a victim of bad circumstance and is a real steal for someone and the Mets just messed up. But right now, too many unknowns. Now, he looks great in independent ball and my medical staff sees no great risk and the other 7 teams picking ahead of me pass for some reason, he's in my "plan A" consideration. In February, with milb and independent ball just getting ready to crank up, he's off my board in the 1st round.

Great post. I think the age debate has some merit. It could also be debated/shown how many quality pitchers matured late and went on to great careers, as well as hiw many debuted early and flamed out. What I think we have to remember is all of these kids are a year younger "prospect wise" than their physical ages.

Keith Law, and just about any paid observer/scribe/former FO employee has forgotten more about baseball and prospect evaluation than I will ever know. Period. And who am I? Just a fairly smart person of 56yo who has been watching baseball most of his life and eating up everything from Baseball Digest to the Sporting News and Baseball America, to just about every baseball website you can imagine since the internet became a real "thing" 20yrs ago. I've seen Gooden and King Felix be the best pitchers ever before burning out. I've seen Clemmons being a STUD from pretty much day one. I've seen Randy Johnson being the best prospect in baseball struggle, be OK, and then suddenly dominate. Ive seen Stieb and Key being OK prospects and pitchers turn in to ACES and dominate when they weren't expected to. Yada, Yada, etc, etc. I've also witnessed countless TOP pitching prospects who never made it. Going back in time a bit, the 90's A's had 4 young pitchers that were supposed to maintain their window, lead by Todd Van Poppel, the second coming of Nolan Ryan. None of that happened. Conversely, ugly as it is to remember, it was just shy of this time the Twins had a collection of pitching talent that was supposed to lead them to a WS. None of them contributed to '87 or '91. Law would destroy me in a debate, as would others about prospects or the history of. But I could care less based on history.. What I DO KNOW is that projecting SP is an almost hopeless exercise. History has proven that to be true.. But the more arms you have, the better your chances to find quality pitching. According to the OP, didn't Law put Balazovic in his top 100 before anyone else? Well, he was awesome and then was shut down to protect him. That's not abnormal for any team post 2020, or the injury factor. Strotman was ranked higher in the Ray's system than Ryan before TJ. Where is Law on this? SWR was a top 100-150 prospect almost since drafted. But young for AA and a mediocre season at best, how does he "stink" now? Ober put up video game numbers as a less than high selection but had injury concerns. Suddenly he finds a repeatable delivery that keeps him healthy, AND makes adjustments during his rookie season to get better. But coming in to 2021 he was what, a late 20 or early 30th ranked prospect? A year ago, did most fans/writers know who Winder and Varland were? A lot of things can change in ONE YEAR in regard to prospects. A year ago, Miranda was a high draft prospect with a decent bat that could be very good. Now he's a top prospect in all of baseball. Keith Law says the Twins pitching prospects are not above the medium? Despite the fact he's ranked Twins prospects high previously? Sucks, he could be right. But, come on, there's just too much stuff and too many good arms here. And history has shown you really don't know what the hell you have until they actually pitch. Numbers and talent say we have a couple quality arms that will be part of our 2022-2023 and beyond. History states a couple will be very good, a couple solid, a couple will find a role in the BP. But nobody will surpass the medium? It may take time, but I call BS. At least a couple will match Berrios or better. Just too many arms and too much arm talent .

I had to re-post this because a "like" can't display how much I want to "double like" or "love" this post. And it's NOT about Law, and I will comment further, but this post is just spot on with content/opinion. More to follow.

You may not be rational, but your thoughts/hopes aren't unfounded or ridiculous. With very little exception, virtually all SP take a season or two to learn, grow, and adapt and "become" what they are going to be, more or less. Just in regard to Twins history, the aforementioned Radke looked decent as a rookie, but was far better after his first year or two. Berrios, for all his stuff and future results, didn't debut with great results. Gibson is similar, though he was never as good as Berrios. Now, that doesn't mean a SP can't continue to get better! Pitching is an ART, and NOT pure velocity. If it were, then the road to success wouldn't be paved with the failed careers of mid to upper 90's fastball failures. (Hope that doesn't sound mean). To take it a step further, again with little exception, the guys who achieve ACE status, are utterly unpredictable. They "happen", and generally speaking, they "happen" over time. But back to your irrational thinking, LOL, Ryan is smart, athletic, and determined. (Berrios characteristics). And he's off to a great start, in SSS. The difference between the two is pure velocity. And again, velocity is NOT everything. (Radke comparison again). Ryan's FB plays faster. His control is already solid. As I stated earlier, his secondary stuff was better than reported initially. But without pure velocity to fall back on, he needs to continue to refine his secondary stuff as well as his knowledge/ART of pitching. But that is going to be true of ALL of the Twins prospects, some of whom have that better velocity. So that's not to shade your thoughts/hopes at all. I also like this guy a lot. He could be just as good, just different. But we probably won't know for sure how good he might be until 2023, no matter what he does in 2022. And this holds true for Ober, and everyone who appears in 2022.

Love his control and was surprised how good his slider and change looked when I watched him. While I'm certain there remains room for improvement, what I saw was ML ready and solid across the board. Bad games happen for everyone, so I'm not too worried about his last game. Again, these things happen. But as I recall, he was off schedule slightly after attending a family funeral.

Heavy agreement with Dman as well as Jacksson on most points. I'm not entirely sure a trade for Montas, or any of their available 3, is as big as projected here as the A's are VERY mindful of their payroll...and cutting it...while being mindful of young, inexpensive talent to develop for the future. By their previous MO they may be very pleased to pick up a Gipson-Long arm, possibly pushing for Varland, and might be interested in a power bat such as Wallner, who SO too much but will also take BB. And while I'd hate to see him go, Arraez could be a perfect money-ball addition to their team. If it's a deal more like that I could be in. But it makes no sense to trade Berrios...despite his 7yr deal that the Twins didn't feel like doing...and then turn around and basically trade that same value away for a 2yr controlled pitcher, even one as good as Montas. It doesn't speak to sustainability to acquire and then immediately trade those kinds of assets for 2yrs unless they would feel confident in a re-sign, OR, have so much faith in their numbers and potential of those numbers, that potentially losing Montas in 2yrs wouldn't hurt. The one thing I DO KNOW about the FO is that it's virtually impossible to predict what they are going to do. I doubt any of us ever saw the Pineda signing happening, or the trades for Odorizzi or Maeda. So rumor has it the Twins were working on trades before the lockout. I can see that. But I see more of a "surprise" trade that we've seen before, or a more predictable trade like Oddo back from Houston. I just don't think Odorizzi "fits" with the Astros and I think both parties want to move on. I think he could come cheaply. He was a good fit while with the Twins, is solid, only 31yr old, and frankly, I hadn't realized he looked like his old self after his poor start. Supposedly, he's their 6th SP, and a possible BP piece, for something like $8M. Again, it doesn't feel like he "fits" with Houston. Next, while not exciting save Rodon, there are a handful of FA arms that are experienced, not expensive, who could offer stability, leadership, and potentially eat some innings. Pineda is the obvious possibility there. Tyler Anderson and Kikuchi are a couple possibilities. To be clear, there is nothing exciting about these options. But there is potential for a solid floor to stabilize the rotation for the young arms that will develop and audition throughout 2022. Then you toss in Bundy, who I'm not exactly excited about. BUT, he teased with Baltimore and had a couple solid years with them. Speculation was, if he was with a better team, he might be a quality middle rotation piece. He was great in 2020, though I wouldn't dare to believe that was his REAL self. But various offerings on his ability...here at TD and other sites...speculate he may be a combination of his 2020 and solid Orioles days to still be a solid mid-rotation SP. Hello Wes Johnson! With a lineup that has a nice mix of veterans and youth, and quality offensive potential, mixed with HOPEFULLY a quality pen that has depth, there would be opportunity for the Twins to be "competitive" this year with a "solid" rotation. What does that mean? "Competitive"? Unfortunately, it probably holds no hope to surprise and go deep in the playoffs. Hell, the rotation alone could scream 70-75 wins. HOWEVER...and this is the key, and I'm not just blowing "optimist" smoke at anyone...a quality roster with a collection of stable, veteran arms can help keep the Twins in games along with continued development of Ober and Ryan. What if we see the 2019 and first 3/4 2020 version of Dobnak return? Early, mid-season or even late season pushes from Winder, Duran, Balazovic, Strotman, Sands, and maybe even a sky rocketing Canterino could not only help pave the way for 2023 and beyond, but could provide lifts to the rotation enough for 80-85 wins. Maybe they get a couple more and actually sneak in to a WC? Remote, but possible. To me, THAT'S a COMPETITIVE team, not sucking, and building excitement and expectations and hope going forward. They are going to need IP. Period! But this lineup, once someone of ANY quality is placed at SS, has real potential. If the pen comes through...and I think one more quality, experienced arm is needed...the rotation needs ANY veterans on hand to just be solid, and let the young arms gain experience and roll through them as needed to gain experience and provide IP. It's time to let the prospects get their feet wet and grow, or continue to grow in some cases. It could be a fun and interesting year to follow. And bad crap could happen, of course. But I'm actually excited for 2022 with an 80-85 win team for the future. And that's my hope for now. Mostly keep what you have but make tweaks, build for 2023 and beyond, and right the ship. Of course, the FO could stun us all with a couple surprise moves and everything I just wrote would be moot.

Well, I can't go any further without once again speaking about how awesome this site is and what it means to a life long Twins fan. (It's also a big deal for my "silent" father for topic discussion together). Just a tremendous site guys!! And it's the first thing I look at each morning. Thank you all! My initial "introduction" to you all was GEEK and SPEAKS, etc, and various other blog sites that I came across looking for content, especially of the milb and off-season variety. (Non-affiliated, I recall reading a lot of great content concerning the minors from a blogger who's name, I believe, was Josh.) So I "knew" everyone before TD was founded. And I enjoyed every moment of reading and information gathering I could take in! So it was a natural and welcome progression to simply follow the news and links to Twins Daily when it was founded. I think I went about a month or so of regular reading before I asked myself why I was reading and not contributing? So I created my account and joined in the discussion! And nobody's been able to shut me up yet! LOL

I've been thinking about this topic all day, plus reading additional posts, and have decided I have more to add. SURPRISE! LOL. #1] Really, just like any position player or pitcher, does it matter if you drafted/signed a SS or traded for one, but you developed one via trade, does it matter? You still worked/developed him. So he's still YOURS! #2] Lewis and Cavaco are the top draft choices for our current FO. (I'm leaving out recent international 16yo signings). The current FO inherited any other SS prospects. And if you are plugged in to the multiple changes that have taken place over the past few seasons, milb coaching and approach has gone through a huge transformation. So trying to bind the current system to years of SS frustration to the current system would be disingenuous. The Twins might have been wrong drafting Cavaco as a fast riser, 5 tool athlete. Just about ready to turn 20yo, we'll see. He might still surprise. Time is on his side. Lewis is about health. Period! And I don’t pretend to be any sort of expert. But I've seen enough in ST games, and TD highlights to see he has the range, arm, and athleticism to make the plays. But he also has to make the routine plays as well. If he has the ability to make the great plays, doesn't he have the potential to make the routine plays as well? I agree that good offense and OK defense makes him a great player. I think experience and time could make him at least better than average in both categories. But does 2022 define him? Maybe. I'd be happy as hell if he was healthy in 2022 and got his legs under him and split the season between AA early and finished at AAA.

To be fair to all 3 of these guys, no 2020 season hurt their development, as it did for most milb players. But in Lewis's case it was a double whammy as he then missed 2021 due to injury. (He does have the advantage at being at the alternate St Paul site in 2020 so as to continue getting in work and not stagnating). Wander missed a whole season due to surgery, then came back, then missed an entire second season. Gordon only missed the one year, but with his illness he might as well have been injured. Still not sure if he lost 15lbs or 25 as I've heard different reports. But he couldn't afford to lose any weight/strength like that. I think Lewis is going to be just fine, but even being an optimist I'm still saying 2023 at the earliest. Gordon has a history of growing and getting better his 2nd year at every level. I'm hoping that holds true this year, along with gaining some weight/muscle/strength back. He's probably never going to be anything close to a great hitter. But I'd take a decent one with speed and the ability to play all over the field defensively. Javier is a wild card at this point. As mediocre as his bat was in 2021, it was better than the last time we saw him, and the power started to come. There is at least a decent chance a healthy 2022 sees him suddenly break through and start to put it together. Sure hope so! Can't say 3 guys and injury, illness and covid over the past 4yrs is a clear indication of a "development problem" at this point. If it continues....well...then I think there may be some validity.

Beat me to it! I may be mistaken, but IIRC, Puckett was promoted because he was darn good but also because hey had to replace Eisenreich on the fly? What might have been!

Man, all I wanted to do was comment on the list and then we started the whole age debate thing. Now I have to try NOT to be as long winded as I normally am! LOL I will agree that age matters somewhat, in regard to history and HOF type performances. Is that what's being argued at the end of the day? I mean, back in the day, you saw "special" players debut as early as 19-20yo. Think Blyleven. Go to 80's and think Griffey and Gooden. More recent history, think King Felix and Correa. And you can research all you want and bring up as many examples as you want. NOBODY drafts or signs a phenom, generally speaking. They HAPPEN, and they are rare. Felix Hernandez and Gooden were destined for the HOF! Except, no they're not. But Randy Johnson struggled for a few years and then figured it out and had an amazing career and reached HOF status. On a much smaller scale, Dozier, All Star and future Twins HOF player, isn't worthy of being considered great because he didn't debut until he was about 24-25yo?. Joe Nathan was a SS before converting to being a pitcher and didn't come to the Twins and became a HOF "consideration" until age 27÷. All I'm saying is, a quality MLB prospect/player shouldn't always be ranked and considered just due to age. Hell, Cruz wasn't the player he became until he was about 27-28yo. And when you just accept that 2020 was a lost season for all but a few prospects, age reference becomes all that more difficult to extrapolate for future performance over the next couple of years. [Heavy sigh]. On to the good stuff: Varland has the FB, slider, and attitude, IMO, to be something. Why do so many...and this is not directed to anyone in particular...believe he is "destined" to a BP role after 1 1/2 seasons despite his amazing 2021? Because he hasn't fully developed his 3rd pitch yet? Excuse me? How many SP have fully developed that 3rd pitch coming out of A÷? But to some, he's already a BP projection. Why? How about we see him at AA at least before we suggest his future. Ditto for Sands. He's done nothing but advance and improve. His numbers are solid. And he, like others, may find themselves lacking a bit and end up as quality BP options going forward. And he may not have the pure velocity of someone Iike Varland, but it doesn't mean he has bad "stuff", just maybe not superior velocity. But we all know a SP, or any pitcher, doesn't make or break their career based on velocity alone. BUT, pure projection on stuff I might nudge Varland ahead of Sands. But we're splitting some small hairs and I'd be willing to bet we'll see Sands up in September, if not sooner, gaining some valuable IP. Walner is behind AK and Larnach, no doubt. And while I don't hold age against most prospects in general, and especially after 2020, he needs to overcome 2020 quickly and prove his 2021 and AFL production is real and RAKE at AA and get a mid season promotion. He's Rooker with better defense if he doesn't figure a few things out. I want to be optimistic, but I also want to see more. I'd probably drop him down a couple of spots. Celestino wasn't ready, but was called on through desperation. It's a credit to him and his talent he didn't implode. Instead, he learned and adapted and did great at AAA. He's got all the tools to be an outstanding 4th OF and maybe more. I'm hoping he can get at least a half season of AAA to prep himself for his next promotion. I appreciate the consensus of Miller. I wouldn't put him this high. I am OK with him not having any tool that ranks high. I'm OK with range, a good arm, overall athleticism, pop/power ability, and solid contact. I have this weird feeling he's Greg Gagne with a better offensive profile. And that would be awesome.

I like this group a lot. But I suspect I'm going to be saying that a lot throughout this series. I'm very intrigued by Hajjar and his projectability. I'm going to have to believe that with his frame, and some tweaks by coaching, his velocity is going to sit consistently in the mid 90's with sustainability. I guess my question is just how good is his curve, or how good can it be? Would he be better off altering to to more of a power slurve instead? I feel bad for Enlow, as I would anyone who undergoes TJ. If there's a silver lining I guess it would be that he's still quite young and looked like he was starting to really figure some stuff out. They say control is the last thing to come around following TJ. Here's hoping he finds it quickly enough to be at AA come 2023, if not the end of this year. I'm rather enamored by both Steer and Julien. With all due respect to Arraez, who I love, and Gordon who I think has a chance to carve out a solid career as a super-utility player with speed, Steer and Julien could both be even better options and relatively soon if they keep on their current trajectory. Really hoping Steer has enough glove to be a legitimate bench SS, as well as 2B/3B. Looks like Julien could play 3 infield spots and LF. They offer a mix of positional flexibility and a mix of power and speed that could make them semi-regulars. (Especially Julien? Could he be a top of the order presence on a daily basis?) Hard to not be excited about Rodriguez as not yet 19yo, already with a year under his belt, and possessing defense, OB ability and power. He seems to have a solid approach as his walks and XB power show. Now he just needs greater consistency. And just to comment further on Strotman, he's not old, but not a kid. But TJ and 2020 robbed him of 2yrs. That isn't his fault or a lack of development. Again, control takes a little while to get back post TJ. And his control in 2021 wasn't great for sure. But the velocity is there and seemingly some solid secondary stuff. I think he ran out of gas after the Twins got him. He might end up in the pen. And a few of our arms are going to. But I still think he's got a shot at the rotation at some point this year.

You are correct on Strotman. He had TJ and then missed all of 2020. So after basically missing 2yrs he bypassed AA and when straight to AAA where he posted quality numbers but with a little control issue. (Not unexpected all things considered). In Seth's recent interview with him he spoke about maybe trying too hard to impress his new team, etc. And while that may be true, I also agree he may have been wearing down.

That honorable mention list is a pretty good one! And I think it's safe to say at least a couple of the names mentioned might already be top 20 if they either hadn't missed out on 2020 or had greater opportunity in 2021. Interesting that Hajjar isn't listed in the honorable mention. Is that an unintentional omission? Or is he in the top 20? If he is, I'd debate that vs Povich. I am surprised that Strotman isn't in the top 20. I have to wonder/ask if it's due to the strength of the top 20, or, is there some recency bias because he looked good in the Ray's system and then struggled after coming to the Twins? I don't know if I'm sold on Sabato yet for various reasons. I'm sure a layoff didn't help him. But I was encouraged by his performance after the promotion to CR. But I'd also have him outside the top 20. I also agree with Cavaco outside the top 20. I know he's still very young and has some great tools...and that is part of ranking talent...but except for the first month plus in 2021, he just hasn't really shown anything YET. Hopefully he's 100% healthy and ready to go in 2022. And I don't mean this as a knock on him, but I wonder if there is a mental/emotional factor of growth involved for someone so young. (Seemed like a great kid in his podcast interview). I'm excited to see what Severino does next season. But I'm with MLR on Raya completely! Not sure I can fully explain the "why", but he was my favorite selection in the 2020 draft. Just "something" about his stuff and potential and attitude that spoke of a HS pitcher that might be a steal. I guess he sorta reminded me of Berrios. My biggest 2021 milb disappointment was him not pitching. I'm super encouraged about his instructional reports. And I may be more excited about seeing what he does this year than almost any of the very young kids in the system.

I think I may see a little bias here. LOL

I've been reminding people for a while now about his 2nd year tendencies. No reason for it to stop now, right? (Hoping). Additionally, while never exactly a hulking figure, it sure seemed last year he hadn't put any/all of the weight he lost from his bad covid experience. Here's hoping he comes in a good 15lbs heavier this season with good weight.

IF I were the long-winded type who jumped up on a soapbox once in a while, (wink-wink, nudge-nudge), I'd pause for a moment to just yell out that I'm sick of covid and all that we have lost and all that has transpired over the past couple of years, and then I would rant a bit more specifically about baseball and the lost 2020 milb season and the affect that has had on the game in general, and specifically our beloved Twins and the development of their prospects and their grand plan to build a staff, without leaving out the various position players who have lost so much time as well. And then I'd rant some more about the CBA and both the players and owners further strangling the great game of baseball with their obtuse ways of thinking, especially with how the past couple of years have played out in society in general, and baseball specifically. I might even go so far off the deep end that I might proclaim something to the effect of actually missing Bud Selig as commissioner. Could I really say something like that??? But since I'm NOT that type...(cough-cough)...I will only concentrate on the OP. One of the great travesties about the ongoing lockout and CBA arguements...is "travesty" too harsh?...is the affect on young prospects on the 40 man rosters who have already missed so much time. Now, if things suddenly get settled over the next couple of weeks, things can get back to normal fairly quickly and ST and the season can get underway. But if it drags on, ST will begin for milb and those players will continue on as normal, preparing for 2022. But all the young talent,for the Twins and everyone else that is less important, (hehe), on the 40 man will be stuck sitting at home and losing further rehab and developmental time. Already, there are non-union ballplayers in Ft Myers working out, ramping up, and getting ready for 2022. These may be somewhat informal workouts at this point, but you can bet that guys like Balazovic, Strotman and others would already be hard at work getting stretched out and getting prepared. And Lewis is probably the biggest loser of them all if this drags on. No matter his MVP finish in the AFL at the end of 2019. No matter his work and development in 2020 over at St Paul, he lost 2021 due to his unfortunate knee injury. And above probably any prospect, he needs time, rehab, guidance, and time to ramp up and get ready. And that is a HUGE bummer right now.

I don't like to buy in very deeply as to what numbers say someone "might" have done or "should" have done. Numbers can be skewed and what's most important, usually, is what actually happened at the end of things. Even still, Donaldson DID play and produce. And based on various WAR numbers, that I appreciate but don't always "get" henearned his pay in 2021. And I liked how the Twins rotated him at DH here and there to help keep him fresh. A similar 2022 would be just fine with me. And with everyone around him performing better, his numbers could rise if he plays another 130G. And he's still fine defensively, though his range has slipped some. Sano is just always going to be a streaky player it appears. But he's so good and so dangerous at times that I can live with that, even though I'm not sure I ever want him hitting higher than the 5 hoke. He still brings tremendous value over the course of the year, even though it doesn't appear he'll ever be the hitter we had hoped for. I also don't think he's quite as bad defensively as some numbers indicate. He's still learning 1B and makes some silly mistakes. But he's solid on pop-ups, mostly fields cleanly, and is adept at scoop plays. The biggest issue here might be room with Kirilloff back and healthy and the need for Miranda to play. It's also why we don't need a full time DH. (Areaez also fits in to the DH picture). Of course, we know over an entire season, these things will often work themselves out. Both of these guys are an oxymoron. Each offers real value and real production not only for the Twins, but for other teams as well that would like to have them and could benefit from their presence. (Especially if the DH is adopted in the NL). But there are enough questions about each that there are real questions of return value if traded vs just keeping them and what they can bring to the Twins. Sano may be inconsistent, but remains so dangerous and largely productive at the end of the day. Even healthy, Donaldson isn't getting younger, but is still good and dangerous and provides fire and experience and if traded, do you really get much salary relief considering you will have to eat part of his deal? I think both probably remain with the Twins to open 2022 and I'm OK with that. I'm not in a hurry to move either one. But I'm also OK with doing so if the right deal comes along.

So if he's already pumping his FB 95-97, what happens to velocity and endurance once he's packing 210lbs of muscle on that frame? Of course he needs at least 1 more consistent pitch. And he has to maintain control. But he should be very interesting to follow this year.

Today? Flip a coin between Rodriguez and Petty! If you twist my arm between 1A and 1B, I'll put Rodriguez at 1A simply because he's a little older. Tomorrow? Whatever college SS or C they select in the 2022 draft will join these 2 to create a fantastic top 3!