DocBauer

It was the catching comments that caught my eye. I think the Twins place a huge emphasis on catching, from the coaches they've added to their change in approach to the catcher stance, to taking batting practice before defensive work while their legs were fresh. They've moved some guys to catcher, and they've acquired a few defense first catchers in various trades all while hoping to catch lightning. And other than Jeffers being picked high, they've also drafted guys like Williams, and Isola, and others in 2018 and 2019. Other than Jeffers, nobody has really shown much other than Williams and Isola, who look like AAAA options with different hitting profiles at this point. But here's what I think happened. The FO brought Castro in and developed Garver. And they had Rortvedt in the system that they thought had a chance to be something. Whether bad scouting or not drafting high enough, or just believing they were OK for the short term, they didn't look hard enough to add to what they had. At least not soon enough! And they've been caught short handed now, pun intended. They drafted 3 catchers in 2021, Cardenas in the 8th round, Winkel right after in the 9th, and Tatum in the 20th. 2022 was their 1st full season after brief appearances in 2021. In 2022 they selected Cossetti in the 11th round and Baez right after in the 12th. So while they may have been unlucky in previous picks post Jeffers or not attentive enough, they've drafted 5 catchers the past 2 drafts. And there are things to like about all of them, they're all 2-3 years plus away from the ML level, they aren't ignoring the position. Did they strikeout with some of the catchers they traded for? So far, yes. Other than Jeffers, debatable thus far, have they struck out on other catcher draft picks in 2018 and 2019? Probably. Way to early to speculate on the draftees in 2021 and 2022. But I think it's fair to say they either blew or ignored the position for a couple of years and that's left us with a huge gap in available talent at an important position which is in direct opposite to their coaching and development approach. In 2-3 years we MIGHT have a collection of quality catching prospects coming up in the system. But for now, it's Jeffers and huge question marks. And that leaves trade or FA to "fix" things in the short term. NOT saying the FO missed another Mauer STUD draftee they passed on. But somewhere along the line they missed out or didn't prioritize a position of importance enough soon enough.

Are they really #6? Maybe. Rankings like this are just so subjective that I don't know how on earth you can have any sort of general consensus. But despite trades and promotions of a number of young players...not necessarily 100% proven at this point...I never bought the system was suddenly downgraded to the bottom third. That's a pretty good looking top 10, IMO, even if it's hitter heavy. Outside that top 10...and this is to offer a little more hope and perspective...what happens if Balazovic is 100% and rebounds next year? Varland, maybe not a stud, isn't even in that top 10. While I don't think either Sands or Henriquez are going to probably stick in the rotation, I could see both transitioning to being really solid bullpen pieces. And there's real value in that, even if neither are the type to bump rankings. And the same may be true of LH Headrick, who might stick as a rotation piece. If there is a "problem" within the system, and the rankings, it would be an absence of top prospects around the AA level. Not saying there's not talent that will be at that level in 2023, but it feels the best talent is at AAA and low A and the Rookie level. But I think recent foreign signings and the 2022 draft, and the 2023 one, could change that perspective very quickly. Maybe most encouraging by that differential in talent levels? Over the next couple of seasons we're going to see Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Julien, SWR, Varland, Larnach, Kirilloff, and others being low cost and very good young players at the ML level allowing for those A and Rookie level players rising through the system. Things are not dark in the system at all.

Gray stated he would like the opportunity to pitch later in to games. They let him. It didn't go well. His response was (slight paraphrasing) "I appreciated the opportunity. But I need to throw better". He never burst out, got angry, said anything bad about anyone. He simply voiced what he'd like to see happen. And actually, later in the season, the Twins did start to throw guys a little longer. His lack of 160IP + ability worries me. But I sure like what he brings to the clubhouse and to the mound when he is healthy. I'm thinking 2 and $28-30? Maybe a 3rd year with an option thrown in for around $12-13 with a couple $M buyout? A healthy Mahle is probably the better pitcher going forward. But I wouldn't mind seeing Gray stick around a couple more years.

I hadn't even considered him until he was placed in someone's blueprint. He could be a great fit for the RH bat the Twins need, and he might not cost as much as other options if $ gets tight. (From other big/large signings). I like the fact he can play 1B, but I need to know he can be at least average in the corner OF spots, because that's where he's really needed. Career fielding percentage only tells a small picture. And I haven't followed Baltimore enough to have that answer.

Nick, I love your work...but...there was a TD office pool about who was going to have to write an article saying something positive and you drew the short straw, right? Velocity, high K and swing and miss numbers are awesome. Until you realize striking out the side wasn't really anything special when surrounded by a line drive hit, a walk, and then a 3 run HR. I EXPECT pitchers to allow runs. Even RP. The question is the frequency and volume of those runs allowed. And 3yrs showing Pagan is one of the worst in all of MLB at allowing those runs is literally anti-relief. And that anyone should suddenly place new found faith in Pagan due to a month and a half of better results at the end of the season with a "new pitch" that nobody has seen before? Misguided hopefulness at best. $4M for a 32yo, 1-2IP middle man who has been mediocre to awful for 3yrs running instead of adding someone better, or, providing opportunity for a young arm already in your system is either poor roster/resource management or stubbornness or both. If proven wrong, I will gladly admit to being so. But the only reason for Pagan to still be on the roster in any way is because they feel they are going to be able to move him soon for SOMETHING. And if so, make it happen quick or let him go and move on.

No Larnach? I'd have him in LF over Wallner, probably. There could be good reasons for Larnach in RF and Wallner in LF. To me, Kepler would be moved. His freed up salary would allow to bring in that solid RH hitting OF for only a little more $. The defense suffers some, naturally, but the offense is so much more effective. While I understand the reasoning for including Pagan in your bullpen, I am so hoping he's gone, one way or another, and is replaced by a FA or one of the young internal arms. The rest makes sense. I'm buying in to Bogarts as a quality option to replace Correa, assuming we lose out. But I'm starting to wonder about Dansby Swanson as well. He's probably better defensively, will probably come cheaper, but wouldn't be quite as good of a hitter as Bogarts.

I really like this move beyond the fill-in SS if the Twins strikeout on Correa or any of the other top 4 SS FA. And I'll try to abbreviate my longer post in another OP on this. As of now, Lee, Lewis, and Julien are not ready. As of now, there is ZERO depth at St Paul for the infield. Before this trade, Gordon would be tasked with covering at least 5 spots in the field. Now he doesn't have to, potentially, based on future moves. This makes the roster deeper, again, depending on future moves. Like the guy he's essentially replacing, Urshela, he's a bit of a late bloomer. And if you look at his career numbers, especially the last two, he's virtually the same hitter for less money. Assuming, for a moment, that you just pencil in a 13 man position roster for the 2023 Twins, you'd have 2 catchers...one TBD...Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, and a TBD SS, and an OF of Larnach, Buxton, Gordon, Kepler/Wallner, and whatever RH they will add. (Garlick is the 2023 version of Cave, depth only). ASSUME Kirilloff will be healthy and ready to go and you still only have 12 position players. Again, as I stated elsewhere, that 13th spot could be an inexpensive PR, OF defensive player who rarely starts, OR, a 1B/DH bat...leaving Gordon as your sole utility player...OR, you can build the best lineup you can, have someone like Farmer as a quality utility player you can count on, and let Gordon still fill many roles. How the Twins fill SS and what RH bat they add...maybe 2 depending...will ultimately determine their 13 man position player portion of the roster. There's a lot of different directions this team could still go. But I think this was a smart addition.

I understand Pagan has velocity and high K numbers. I understand he was working on a different pitch, or a variation of an existing one, and posted better numbers over the last couple of months when in lower pressure situations. But he remains, at best, a 1-2 inning middle reliever who has some of MLB WORST performance numbers for 4yrs running! I would have let him loose last July. Right now, I'd move him for anything I could get, if that's possible. $3M plus for a live but poorly performing arm in middle relief? Come on FO! Stop being stubborn! You should be smarter than this. Move him or cut him and use his $3M towards a better ballplayer and use your system and FA to fill the middle inning role. An expensive middle reliever who K's batters but still allows a HR virtually every other time out just isn't valuable.

A recent podcast with John and Aaron...as well as Dan Hayes... used the term "freezer burn" in regard to Kepler. While a slightly jaded term, it's appropriate. If the Twins were in the market for a LH OF with great defense and power and a solid overall game, he'd be the kind of talented, bounceback guy you might be looking at. But sometimes it's just time for the team and player to have a fresh start. And I think that's where we are at in regard to Kepler. I've been a Max fan and supporter since the day he was signed. And if he's kept, I won't be upset, and will hope for a rebound. But with Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Gordon knocking on the door for playing time and opportunity, along with whoever they add as a much needed RH, it's just time for both parties to go a different direction. It makes me sad to say that, but I believe it's true.

This! Thinking BIG PICTURE about the roster for next year I always come up with some sort of 12 man position grouping with room for 1 more. Just examine for a moment: 2 catchers, Arraez, Polanco, Miranda and SS TBD, Larnach, Buxton, Gordon, Kepler/Wallner, and a RH OF TBD. ASSUME Kirilloff is actually ready to go at 1B/OF. That's 12 with a 13th spot to fill. While I like Gordon and think he's actually going to still improve, he's the only "cover" for multiple positions. And yes, you can live with that most days and maybe add a defense first speed guy to the OF who rarely starts. OR, you can add another DH/1B bat like Bell or Abreu, etc. OR, you can add someone like Farmer who is, yes, a break glass temp SS, but who can play multiple positions to provide additional infield depth and not just have Gordon, freeing him to do whatever he needs to do in the infield, outfield, and even pinch run. And if Gordon is filling in at CF, you still have another veteran infielder to fill in where needed. And let's face it, until Lewis, Lee, and Julien are ready, infield depth at St Paul is currently non-existant. I think this is a smart move. Rough payroll calculation: $90M if/when/logically/hopefully Pagan is moved, minus Urshela, add in Farmer...$86M. Minus a very possible Kepler move, a $78M payroll. That's over $60M to spend to just reach 2022 numbers. Add in just a 5% bump for league wide "inflation" of expected payroll...and the Twins maybe even hitting the $150M mark...the Twins still have, potentially, $67-70M to still dole out for additions.

I like Urshela as a player and as a clubhouse guy. I would have been very happy to see him stay. He's good, not great, but good. But he isn't part of the future. Regardless of the Correa situation...or any of the other top FA SS...you simply have to make room for the young ballplayers in your system. It's the same situation when we talk about making room in the rotation for young arms vs yet another Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy, Archer type of signing. Miranda moves to 3B now, with the ability to also play 1B. And Lewis and Lee...not forgetting Julien...are options also at 3B/SS/2B going forward depending on how the SS situation gets handled. All young, inexpensive, controllable, more talented, and full of potential. Again, I like Urshela, he has value, but he wasn't going to be part of 2024 and beyond and this makes sense. It also frees up some extra $ to be added to the pot for other additions. I thought Urshela might have brought a little more back, say a AA player or arm. But with only 1yr of control left, the Twins appeared to go for a younger arm with more upside rather than someone higher in the Angels chain but maybe with a lower ceiling.

BTW, if you haven't already done so, feel free to visit Brock's post on MORE LOGO LEAKS and leave a "like". Just a few more "likes" and yours truly receives a wonderful gifting of a new pennant to replace the "old one" I picked up in August during my first visit to Target Field. And yes, I'm pimping myself unabashedly here, LOL!

I liked the old "M" from the 90's era. How about stealing from the Tigers and doing an Old English "M"? Some have pointed out it appears to be an upside down "W" to pay homage to the Senator days. And I get wanting to do that. But it just looks odd and clunky to me.

I agree whole heartedly on the missing Mini and Paul logo. It's an iconic, stand alone symbol of the franchise and I think it should have been included. Obviously, it's an easy add and I hope they do so.

I think they are great! They are clean and classy, modern but with that touch of past for a classic feel. BUT....that "M" is just the worst! It's like the whole re-brand idea went to 90-95% and then just hit a brick wall.

Going to disagree only slightly with you Seth. I think Gray was a 2yr deal with a "we'll see" at the end of 2023, if not earlier. Mahle was brought in as a potential "steal" for a pitcher just reaching the right time of stuff and experience, to help in 2022...which didn't happen, unfortunately...and be a potential re-sign for the future. His injury/dead arm issues could actually play in the Twins favor going forward. I just don't see the Twins making an extension offer offseason while there is still concern. They tend to play "safe" at times. I believe, if they like the medicals, they will bump to $7 or $8, $12, and $15, with an option for $18. They might go $10, $13, $18, and $20. But health is a factor, as always, as well as what Mahle does and what he believes his worth is. Is Mahle, and his reps, convinced of his value to potentially exceed that? Just too much to try and predict what the future holds. But again, I think the FO traded for him because he was getting close to the time in his career where stuff and experience moves him to another level. Think Ray a year or so ago. But I think the FO was looking at him as someone who might just be about ready to transform in to a top of the rotation SP. And if there is ANY indication of that happening they would be smart to lock him up

I like this idea, and have stated that we might be all demanding an extension by 2024 if the surgery and rehab work out. But I think we all agree we have to see positive results first.

And I agree with you 100%. But Greinke, Cole, and Verlander were added from outside the organization. And you absolutely have to allow for the young arms at some point. Sink or swim, right? Ryan and Ober are pretty nice arms to work with. And there are others right on the cusp, maybe even Balazovic, who I'm predicting will bounce back strong. But, again, healthy, IMO, we don't have a collection of #4 SP. And if I'm the FO and I have a chance to add to what I have without having to trade away the future, I'm going to add a potential difference maker and work it all out later.

BTW, I forgot to address Garlick in my earlier post. While I would have been 100% OK leaving him off the roster in favor of protecting an additional prospect, I do understand why the Twins kept him at this time. While he is a very different player, he is this year's version of Cave in 2022. The FO knows they need better. He's signed to hang around and be removed later, but is hopefull keeper, like Cave, who is a fall back option or break glass in case of need option. I believe his time on the 40 man is limited.

Yes, trades are important to add. And development is key. Very few #1 SP, much less a true ACE, hit FA or are available for trade. And when they are, they are very, very expensive, one way or another. The key is finding someone just about ready to put stuff and experience together at the same time, usually late 20's, and then watch them bloom. Gausman and Ray are a couple of recent examples. Rodon is a perfect "fit" based on those factors now, and what he's done the past couple of seasons. The problem with development is it takes time. And nobody wants to hear that. But it's true. With very little exception, nobody just drafts an ACE or #1 SP. There's a reason virtually every prospect is listed as a mid rotation starter, sometimes with a bump to high side. I don't object to your opinion as to what the Twins have on hand right now. But I will agree to disagree on your "ranking" of the current staff. A healthy Gray is a very good pitcher and a #2 on most staffs, who throws like a #1 at times. Mahle is younger arm just reaching that right age and time where things sometimes come together. And his numbers away from Cincinnati indicate he might just be ready to blossom. Both Ryan and Ober have absolutely flashed, while still young and inexperienced. And I simply won't, and can't, speculate how good they may or may not be in the future. Maeda is a mystery. Despite not appearing late last season as wondered about, reports are he was throwing easy and showing fine command. He was good with the Dogers. He was GREAT with the Twins. Who shows up in 2023? But I have to disagree that we have a #3 and a bunch of 4's. HEALTHY, and with a little more development/experience from Ryan and Ober, I think we have a couple of quality #2's and a trio of #3's. And there's depth and "possibilities" from that depth. And while I have stated repeatedly that if I were the FO I would simply expect the worst, and just anticipate various injuries and look to add if I could, IMO, you might be under selling the arms we currently have. Agree to disagree?

I think that is outstanding! Clean, crisp, modern with a slight throwback feel. I'm fully on board with this version!

And you might be right. I think the problem is with the blue jersey. You put a Mini and Paul patch on the sleeve, have the players name in white, and red numbers with a white border and the blue might be killer.

Would Renfroe be a downgrade defensively? Of course he would. But I don't that much better offensive production wouldn't overcome any runs lost. Rumor has it the Brewers may be looking to cut some payroll if possible. Assuming that's true, this deal could make a lot of sense. Financially, I have really liked the idea of adding Haniger as a RH option to the OF, despite some injury concerns. Haniger has a better bet, but with Renfroe being a better daily bet for the lineup, he may be a better choice. And $, they'd be very close, IMO. If Renfroe is better in LF...and I don't know if that's the case or not...Larnach and Wallner have the arms for RF for sure. I like this idea a lot. My concern would be what do we have to give up for a player that is currently on a 1yr deal? Urshela makes sense. But what else? Would we have to give them Larnach or Wallner? I think I might have to pass if that's the case and again think the best FA route. But in principal, this is a pretty smart idea.

I understand warning bells going off for any player or pitcher who's had any sort of injury issue in the past, especially considering some of the injury bug issues the Twins have had as of late. But honestly, with little exception, what player or pitcher hasn't been injured at some point? Verlander was a horse for years...even in some down years...until he wasn't. (Which makes his comeback all that more amazing). Rodon is an injury risk. But so is just about every single arm out there. He's had 2 good, solid, mostly healthy seasons in a row and been very good in both. I'm willing to go along with any risk that Rodon has, provided my medical experts don't come back alarmed. He's the one potential difference maker out there that costs money, and not players or prospects. He makes the Twins better barring something catastrophic happening.

I would have dumped Pagan last summer. So the ONLY reason to tender him is because you think someone will bite on a bag of balls or similar in a deal for him. Paddack is making a drop in the bucket when the vast millions of dollars of a payroll are concerned, and worth keeping around for 2024, if not a late 2023 appearance. The rest are all easy keeps for sure. I think the only reason there is some question on tendering Urshela is not because he's not liked, not because he might not fit...though that's questionable when you look at possible roster construction scenarios...but simply a question about his trade value to another team. Will another team think he's good enough, what they need, to pay him $9.2M for 1yr. If the Twins offseason moves dictate that he's a role player, and not a fixture, they are over paying him. So if nobody else out there needs/wants a 3B like Urshela, then he's over priced to be on the Twins bench. But I believe he's tendered, and I believe there's got to be a couple teams, at least, where he would be an upgrade to what they have and would be willing to make a small-ish trade with the Twins for him.