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DocBauer

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Everything posted by DocBauer

  1. Not disagreeing at all. I do think Celestino still has a lot of ability and some real potential. And he hasn't been handled fairly when he was pushed so early due to being one of the last men standing on the 40 man, to being kept on the roster last year when he had a solid ST and then fell apart. Mix in missing half of this year, he's been behind the 8 ball in development the past couple seasons. But I do believe Martin has passed him. And while a couple years older, I wonder if the LH, late blooming Keirsey hasn't also done so. And again, you can't keep everyone. And I don't think Celestino will be drafted in the rule 5.
  2. Had Helman not been cursed with 3 different injuries this year. I am thoroughly convinced he'd have seen time with the Twins and weight be saying "Luplow who"?. Guy plays all 7 positions and can run and has some power as well. Might not have to protect him due to age and how much time he missed, but he could be an outstanding, late bloomer of super utility option. Would really like to keep him. Kiersey would be nice to keep as well, especially with CF questions. It's not fair to Celestino, who is still pretty young, has been promoted and pushed too early, and then missed half the year, but indont know that there's room to keep him. You can't keep everyone, and I think he's the odd man out in the OF discussion. I'd also like to keep Prato. But you only get to protect 40 and there might not be room to keep everyone from AAA that I'd like to. Yes, Enlow is definitely RH. Good start to his season and seemed to fall apart at St Paul. Did he just run put of gas, even a year post surgery? Was he fighting some mild new injury? I doubt he's protected, but hoping he sticks around and gets one more year to see if he can get over the hump.
  3. I think the nucleus of the roster is easy to set. It's the last few spots that are questionable. And I think you have it just about nailed, Seth. Few comments: 1] Maeda vs Ryan as the #3 starter. Might depend on who we're facing. I think I'd keep both. But if Maeda is the choice, I could see keeping Ryan off the roster and be ready to start game #1 of round two. That allows Funderburk to be kept in the pen WITH Paddack, who I agree might be a secret weapon. And again, depending on who we face, a 2nd LH option might not be all that important. In that case, Ryan and Maeda are both on the roster. And if Ryan starts, I think I keep Maeda in the pen as a stabilizing, experienced arm who's done it before. 2] Maybe I'm just being too conservative, but I'm having a hard time seeing Paddack look so strong after being gone for so long, and still believing he's up the playoffs this quickly. Now, if he gets a few appearances at the ML level and looks good...I'm starting to lean in keeping him. 3] I'm not convinced on Buxton over Luplow, despite a huge talent gap. Buxton, even in a bad, injury marred season has had moments. But is 10 days of limited time on a bad wheel enough to show he's ready to make a mark as a PH/DH? Or is it smarter/safer to keep Luplow, who has done surprisingly well in his short Twins stay. This one is very tricky and debatable for me. 4] Not sure I want Castro to start any game, depending on matchups, of course. I love Taylor's defense in CF, though Castro has looked pretty solid there. And if Castro doesn't start, more than once anyway, he's the primary PR and can play anywhere if and when they start swapping and matching. He's a weapon, and a versatile piece of the puzzle. He'll play every game. Just not sure I don't want him as a chess piece to use where and when I want.
  4. I can't recall right now who said it, or who relayed the information, but a year or so ago, there was a report from someone with the Twins that Martin was spending so much time at SS...loosely implied he wasn't seen as a real option there...to keep him in the dirt for as long as possible to work on his INF glove, footwork, future possibilities, etc. But it was stated that it was felt he was a natural in the OF who could slide there easily. I was surprised to see recently that he's spent more time at 2B than the OF this season. I can only conjecture that they still see him as an option there. And if they see him as a legit, and natural OF, then I guess that makes sense at this time. I think his arm is not as strong at 3B as you'd like, hence the extended work at 2B. And I like the fact he could be a 2B option, or be able to cover the spot. But he seems to be a natural OF who will settle there. While not possessing a great arm, from what I've heard, he's got all the speed and athleticism I think you'd want in a CF. Which is also who I included him in the original OP. I'm not certain I see him breaking camp with the Twins in 2024...still a lot of moving parts involved...and I have to feel the Twins like the idea of brining Taylor back for depth...but I see him as a legitimate option next year, whether day one, or a little in to the season.
  5. No disrespect to Greene, who is a wonderful talent and will hopefully have a healthy and good career ahead of him. But I'd still take Lewis. His knee appears fine. His oblique injury and now hamstring aren't chronic, surgery type of injuries. They appear to be just "one of those things" that happens. It does make me wonder, as a strong, muscular athlete, does he need to concentrate a little more this next offseason on just flexibility??? When you consider just how good both might turn out to be, and as much as it would ALWAYS be nice to draft and develop a top of the rotation arm, I would take the 5 day a week potential stud position player. I think the Twins made the right choice.
  6. I appreciate the work put in here, but I'm still not sure I necessarily see any direct correlation. At least not across the board. For instance, whoever the Twins play, are they generally better or worse in day vs night games? And what is their breakdown amongst their best hitters and pitchers? Also, Lewis, Wallner, Julien, and Kirilloff...for various reasons...have fewer games and AB than other players. So their sample sizes are smaller in nature than say Kepler or Taylor. I do like the fact that the arms all generally seem better during the day. Correa will be back, hopefully at least as "good" as he's been, if not better. The change in his condition...the tissue tear... MIGHT make him feel better. While I still haven't heard any specifics on Lewis's MRI, the fact that he seemed to walk off the field just fine and was on the exercise bike the next day gives me hope he's going to OK for the playoffs. Sure looks like Stewart is just fine and will be back. And that's HUGE. IMO, the only position player decision to be made is Buxton vs Luplow. And it's going to come day to the last day of the season probably. Luplow offers nothing special, but he's actually performed against LH arms in his brief time with the Twins. I can't believe Buxton will be anything more than a PH, maybe a DH. Who knows, he might have one good SB in him. But as much as it stinks, I don't see a fit for him unless he can actually show/prove over the next week or so that his bat is actually back enough to make a difference. Otherwise, you're probably better with Luplow. And it pains me to say that. It's very true that every series seems to have one guy who steps up and make a difference. My bet would be new dad Castro...on a hot streak...might be that guy.
  7. One of Stu's very best! About did a spit take on Gray texting what we wanted to hear!
  8. Per reports in today's game against the Reds, Lewis had been deal with a sore heel. The pull up/limp running to 1B was the heel barking so they didn't address anything at the time. His hamstring has not been an issue. Somehow, it cramped or pulled slightly on his swing. He was immediately pulled at that time. Totally unrelated issues. I think everyone gets to keep their job for another day.
  9. Despite disappointing overall numbers in the first half, Buxton was around league average in OPS and had some big moments. Without him in the second half, the offense has been better without him. Now, I'm NOT saying the Twins are better WITHOUT Byron. Nor am I saying his being out has been a single cause and affect for a better offense. I mean, a resurgence of Kepler has been pretty big. But PART of the reason Wallner, Julien, Lewis, and Kirilloff received their opportunities to contribute was by freeing up the DH spot. Polanco missing time also contributed. It pains me to say it, but the Twins haven't missed Buxton too much. And I seriously doubt he plays any CF this season, unless it's one game and then he's just done after that. It would seem his only fit would be as a PH/DH. The problem with PH is then having to be replaced in the field, which becomes a 2 for 1 swap out. Don't get me wrong, he might produce a couple key hits in those spots. But it's still a limited role when considering the roster construction.
  10. Now this I can go with. Not saying Paddack for the playoffs is a mistake. He's looked very good so far. And he might be a secret weapon, as stated. But he's also been gone for well over a year, never pitched from the pen, IIRC, and is going to have limited innings/appearances this season. Assuming 8 arms in the pen for the opening round: Duran, Stewart, Jax, Thielbar. Pagan, Varland, and more than likely 1 of Ryan/Maeda/Ober. That leaves 1 spot left and it might belong to Funderburk, looking good so far, and providing a 2nd LH. So while I don't disagree about the possibility of Paddack, I'm just not sure if I see the fit either. Maybe the 2nd round?
  11. I ONLY want Gallo around as an emergency roster add if more than 2 go down. And considering his numbers since around May 1st, the Twins should feel the same Always rooted for Gordon and had real hope his 2022 second half was a legit breakout and he'd be a valuable member of this year's team. But after missing more than 3 months, and a roster that looks full, are a couple milb games going to suddenly vault him to "must add" status? I'd say no. There's no room for him now, and I'm not sure there will be next year either. I still have hope for Alcala. I really like his stuff, despite a few control issues post injuries. Really looked like he had figured it out following a SSS 2020 and a full year in 2021. Still crossing fingers it all comes together for 2024 and beyond, but I just don't see a handful of rehab games suddenly putting him in the Twins post season plans. Great to read all the wonderful reports on Paddack and his return to health/form. While it would be hard to have any expectations for 2024 this soon, I have little doubt he'll be a significant part of the team. And I understand the "all hands on deck" mentality for the playoffs, but is a rehabbing Paddack, even looking good, throwing as hard as he can for a couple innings one of the best options? Is it best for him at this point? I'm not saying no to him, or Alcala, I'm just not sure if there's a good fit. And part of the reason I say that is the potential return of Stewart. If he's even close to the pitcher he was before his injury, he's a MAJOR add to the pen. Assuming the Twins go with 8 pen arms for the first round, you have: Duran, Stewart, Jax, Thielbar. Pagan, Varland, and at least one of Ryan/Maeda/Ober I should think. I don't know that Floro is in the Twins' plans. He's iffy, IMO. I think Funderburk might very well be the 8th man to get than 2nd LH for the middle innings. I don't think the Twins are counting on either of Alcala or Paddack right now, and that's a good thing. They just need to stay ready, get prepare for instructs, and get ready for 2024.
  12. Hell of game with everyone contributing: 1] Two tremendous defensive plays and a big HR by new daddy Castro. No crow here. I was one of a handful that really liked his signing, lot of untapped tal3n5 and still young. Can't say I expected what he's done so fat. 2] Maeda with another great start. Except for a few games here and there, he's been good to great almost every time out since his IL "rest and build up endurance" stint. I don't think there's any "hate" out there for Maeda at all. He simply has a previous history of being good in the post season pen. But in truth, it's been a few years since he's done it. And while I love Ryan, I don't know that he's got the #3 spot sewn up yet. 3] The more I watch Funderburk the more I think they've found their 2nd LH pen arm. (Would still like to see Moran get his stuff under control and run with 3 LH next year). But also makes me wonder why he wasn't up sooner considering his results not only this year, but in 2022. 4] Would have pulled Lewis the SECOND he winced and then sat him for the next couple of days where his only job would entail therapy.
  13. The Twins had some disappointing finishes earlier in the 00's, but 2011 and 2022 are two of my most frustrating seasons. They seemed built to win in '11 coming off a really good 2010. And while they had some pitching issues in '22, and might have done little in the post season, they had a pretty good team and lead almost all season until early August where they were just so under manned from injury there was no hope. It's been nice to rebound here in 2023. I just wish the more balanced team we've been the second half of this year was the same version we had in the first. The Twins would end up with more than 90 wins, and might have gotten a 1st round bye. But ultimately, what matters is not how you start, but how you finish.
  14. Really, really hoping Nowlin perfects his control on a more consistent basis. He sure seems to have the stuff to be a solid starter, but the Jekyl/Hyde aspect seems to indicate an eventual move to the pen. But I sure wouldn't make that move yet, way too early.
  15. I'm rather surprised by this. I thought Stevenson would be the one sent out. He's been doing well as a PH and his OPS, even in SSS, seemed to indicate he was bringing at least some value as a RH OF.
  16. We just don't know how bad of a case he has, so I can only speak from my own experience. As Dantes929 stated, sitting down and resting for short periods is almost worse. Whe. I had my case, I could barely stand or walk for about 20 minutes after eating lunch, for instance. But things would loosen up after that 20 minutes, though it also still hurt pretty badly. Continued therapy and the offseason will hopefully get him right for 2024. But I'd say it's a combination of what he's feeling as well as what the trainers feel is best. Agree he should take a day off surrounding the off days. But if he does that, he should just stay off the foot altogether. Right now it appears to be about maintenance, not healing. That's about all a couple of days are going to do.
  17. Another great OP Nick! I understand how they've handled Ober. It was smart for now, and next year, not to taxt him. He's too important to mess with his potential. But I'm mixed on him vs Maeda as the 4th SP if the Twins advance. I can easily see both as the 4th starter with the other as a BP option. History might suggest Maeda as the BP option, but that's getting ahead of ourselves right now. I think I'd start Ober just because Maeda has BP experience, but we're talking small hairs. Stewart is a difference maker if healthy. So is Varland on temporary loan to the pen. I still believe in Jax if allowed to rest a bit. Funderburk MIGHT be a wild card option from the port side. I think the relative health of this team is something we haven't seen in years going in to the playoffs. And that fills me with hope. This team just MIGHT be coalescing at the right time to make at least some kind of run.
  18. Any time you beat the Dirty Sox it's a good thing! I just wish we could have swept. GREAT start by Gray! Might be nothing, but I have this feeling that he has not only been focusing more on his approach to PUT GUYS AWAY EARLIER, which he has commented on previously. (He seems to be a bit of a perfectionist, which I get, as well as a competitor). But I think he is mentally ramping himself up for the post season. I'm just NOT worried about 1 bad inning from Lopez in game 3. I'm more worried/curious about Ryan. I think he's fine both mentally and physically. I just want to see him "turn it up" a notch one game before the season ends. I dismiss the arguments regarding Wallner. He struggled for a couple of weeks. And I hate the Gallo comparisons, especially so early in his career. Yes, there is a comparison. But he's been much better lately. And their approach might be similar, but their swing is different from what I've seen. Gallo is all or nothing. Wallner seems to have a swing that's adjustable. He doesn't "golf" at everything. I do hope Wallner follows a different path than Gallo. It's great to be able to work a count like Julien does. But not everyone can do that. And I don't see Wallner following Gallo from what I've seen of him. I think he's got a good evaluation of the strike zone. I think he has a more aggressive attitude to swing at a ball in the zone than Gallo has. I think he's a future .240-.250 hitter with a decent OB and still tremdous power. I've watched both of them enough to believe Wallner is going to be a better "hitter" than Gallo.
  19. Agreed it's too early. But my thoughts are tending somewhat where yours are. I'm ANXIOUS as can be for the playoffs! But all this roster discussion has me strangely focused at the same time on next year.
  20. The season is not yet done, and the playoffs are not quite here yet. Still, there has been so much conversation about roster construction for said playoffs, along with speculation about guys coming back from injury...or maybe not coming back...that I often find myself already contemplating CF in 2024, and beyond, even if it would seem early. FIRST, the Giant Elephant in the room: Buxton has been unable to play the position this season. And he had a recent shutdown in his AAA rehab when trying to make it happen for the remainder of the year. (Albeit, nothing has been ruled as of YET). Wishing something doesn't make it happen. Re-visiting something once again that hasn't happened is a fools errand. Even IF Buck is available to contribute to the playoff roster in any way as a DH/PH/PR on...much less play ANY CF...is yet to be determined. (It would be nice). I am focused on what is to come right now. I'm sure Buxton will have some sort of additional cleanup procedure, at the least, followed by rest and rehab to try and get him ready for 2024, with fingers crossed. I would think that ANY availability to play CF on a part time basis would be welcome. But the Twins can't fill CF next year on hope. But it is hoped he might be part of the equation. SECOND, as of now, early reports are CF isn't going to be blessed with a lot of good options in the FA market. THIRD, while I don't subscribe to the "cheap ownership" idea...though I wish at times they would stretch just a little more...while $ is coming off the books, there are decisions to be made concerning options for both Kepler and Polanco. And while the FO hasn't done anything to cut payroll the past few years...and have even increased payroll...the team just might end up losing $ from whatever new TV deal is made post the Balley Sports debacle. So with the table being set, it would appear the Twins have FOUR distinct options to shore up CF for 2024, if not beyond. In no particular order, they are: 1] Look to a FA. Bellinger is probably the #1 option there after a rebound season. But one would have to assume there will be competition for his services. I believe he made about $17M in 2023. Could he be signed for that? More? And how much more and how many years? With other decisions to be yet made, some intriguing options rising within the system, would this make sense for the Twins? Might they look at bringing back Taylor again? Granted he'll be 33yo opening day next year, and his AVG was below his career norms, but his OB% wasn't too far off his career norms and his SLG% went up with 14DBLS and a career high 20 HR, as of NOW. Despite battling some injuries during the season, he still played outstanding defense and is 13-1 in SB so far this year. Speed and range and overall defense seem to still be intact. At $5M this year, and on the wrong side of 30, I doubt he'd break the bank on another year. 2] The Twins might trade for a CF. Perhaps someone young, perhaps someone older on an expiring deal. They've shown a tendency to make moves like this previously across the roster. Young means more draft capital, older means cheaper prospect cost. But ASSUMING Gray will reject the QO for a bigger deal the Twins won't want to match, they might re-sign Maeda for additional rotation depth/options. And if not, would they be looking for a similar Lopez kind of trade addition? If so, they might be more reluctant to move additional prospects. But then again, the trade for Taylor cost them nothing in regard to TOP prospects. 3] Maybe they should trust in their prospects? Austin Martin finished 2022 strong, and had a breakout AFL, though AFL numbers can be skewed a bit due to a general lack of top arms. And he battles some nuisance injuries early this year. But once healthy, his 54 games at St Paul...266PA and 218AB...produced a quad slash line of .271/ .396/ .417/ .812. He was also 16-3 in SB. While less than half a season, those numbers are pretty impressive. And the Twins have previously stated they felt he was a natural OF. Hilights have backed that up, though I appreciate he's not by any means a finished product yet. But when you have a top prospect who seems to have figured it out, and just might be ready, do you give him the shot? Did the FO learn enough this season about trusting in their young talent? Additionally, despite having his entire season wrecked due to injury, Cellestino is healthy again and still quite young, I believe 24yo when next season starts. And he's out of options, IIRC. But there's talent there, albeit, talent that hasn't been allowed to develop on a natural curve due to injury and way too early promotion. And what if there's room to keep Gordon, also out of options I believe. Might he regain the resemblance of his 2nd half 2022 self? If so, he could be part of a temp solution, along with Celestino? DaShawn Keirsey is a former high pick who was an older than normal draft selection due to a massive college injury. He struggled a bit early in his pro career, had a couple setbacks, and then found himself in 2022. He was promoted to AAA too late in the opinion of many of us...St Paul was doing just fine, but no excuse...and continued to perform well after said promotion. He did dip in his BA and overall OPS from .850 to a still good .762 number. The past 2yrs, he's suddenly delivered on some power, though he will never be a slugger. He's reported to be a natural and outstanding defensive CF with SB speed. (31-5 this year doing so). He might not be ready NOW, but might be a solid role player soon. And he might be a decent bench alternative to Martin in the future as well. It's also possible the Twins might convince Stevenson to return, off the 40 man, as a depth option, for next season. Is there enough "prospect depth" and available talent to run with what they have rather than spend $ and prospect capital for someone else? 4] Time to move Lewis to CF, or begin the transition to doing so at least part time. Polanco and Julien can handle 2B, Polanco can also play 3B. Lewis will split time at 3B A fully healthy Miranda in 2024 might just be ready to produce again. And Lee doesn't have to be pressured from DAY ONE to be ready. Lee might surprise and be ready from the start. I don't buy it. As good as he is, and will be, I'm not ready to rush him after ONE full season and a couple months in 2022. Meanwhile, Lewis has more than enough natural skill set to be an excellent CF. And he flashed it in the AFL previously. STOP with injury factors! His previous injury in the OF was a weird take off/landing and had nothing to do with hitting a wall. His knee is no more likely to be hurt again charging or diving and planting in the INF as it would be running down a fly ball in the OF! MY OPINION? I would look at Taylor on a decent 1yr deal for $6-7M knowing we could move him to someone in need. It gives the prospects time to settle in at St Paul and not feel pressured. WHAT I WANT? Trust in Martin and everyone else mentioned for depth and "turn to" options as needed and focus on the rotation and pen and maybe, finally, adding an above average RH bat. I understand CF is important. But whether it's Taylor, or trusting in the prospects, I'd rather worry about the rest of the roster and not the probable #9 hitter. I apologize for this being long, and early, but I believe this IS a very serious concern getting ready for 2024 that has, inadvertently, been brought up with recent roster construction.
  21. They've been on a bit of a draft roll since 20198, IMO, even with Cavaco a reach that shouldn't have been taken. I'm going to argue against Canterino being a miss at this point. While injuries have probably deprived him of being anything close to the starting pitcher who dreamed of, I believe there's still a reasonable chance his TJ surgery gets his career back on track as a potentially strong back of the pen option. And there's still real value in that. 2020 was so weird based on covid. So little playing time lead to lesser evaluations of prospects, and the shear lack of size of the class was all odd. For the Twins, the jury is still out. I don't think Sabato is going to cut it. But Soularie is starting to look like the athletic, toolsy player he was supposed to be now that he's been staying healthy. Raya and Rosario are looking like legit prospects. 2 out of 4 would be pretty good, even with missing on the 1st pick. A lot of 2021 is gone via trades. But those picks allowed the Twins to make those moves. On top of that, they still have Miller as a position player, a couple of decent looking catcher prospects in Cardenas and Winkel, and a couple other bats that haven't exactly looked bad. On the mound, they have top prospect Festa, decent prospect Nowlin, and a few other arms that have a shot. (Some of which are still barely getting their careers underway after immediate surgeries). Last year's class is my favorite so far, even with questions about Prielipp's future in doubt. To get Lee was fantastic. We've seen some really good early looks from Schobel, Ross, Ortega and Cossett. And virtually every other arm has looked solid to great so far. Is it early? Absolutely. But this draft sure is looking promising so far. And while I appreciate this article, and the early optimism, to me it's just too early to say, even with the early performances of Jenkins, Winokur, Keaschall, and Harry (who I expected little from, to be honest). But the arms just haven't had a chance to be unleashed yet, so I have to give 2023 a big incomplete right now. This time next year, however, it might be the best draft the FO has had.
  22. I remember the mailbag episode and Gleeman's report. I was disappointed and almost dumbfounded at how poor the PH numbers were at the time. To see the turnaround is impressive, to say the least. I do think using all of your players, letting everyone get actual game time in instead of sitting on the bench for days at a time, does help lead to better PH results. * If you had told me that Solano was NOT amongst the team's best PH I never would have believed you. *If you had told me Luplow had been that good as a PH I never would have believed you either.
  23. I don't miss having to sort through a stack of different papers and magazines to get any Twins news. I don't miss scratchy AM radio at night to catch every other word of a Twins game. I don't miss only being able to see the Twins when I visited family on trips to South Dakota. I don't miss 3 1/2 hours to watch a game.
  24. Been hearing for a while that he had a really good slider, but despite high velocity, his fastball just didn't play. Obviously, lack of movement means very little even with high mph. Major leaguers can hit hard stuff that comes in straight/flat. No way of knowing I'd this new sinker will get his career on an upward trajectory of not...sure hope so...but making the move to something different, even on the fly, is smart. Now he gets extra time this season to work on it.
  25. Roger, I believe Stewart is scheduled to throw again on Tuesday since there are no Monday games. If that goes well, I'd say he's probably driving across town to re-join the Twins.
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