DocBauer

Taking a long look at Maeda coming and Varland going down...removing emotion from it...it makes sense to me. I think it's worth giving the veteran Maeda a look-see. And personally, I really like Varland's future a lot. I see him as a future #3, and not a 1 or 2, but I think he's shown he's got a lot of potential. But he's struggled recently and a re-set at this time might really help him get back on track. We've still got more than half a season to go. I had, briefly, wondered if the smart idea might have been letting Maeda and and Varland piggyback one another. You might get the best of both, and potentially eliminate a pen arm, or maybe a single pen arm. But the HR propensity of Varland right now probably doesn't make that work right now. In regard to Ober, I have to believe they will try to skip him either going in to, or coming out of, the break. And I do agree that at some point in the second half they will again try to skip him a time or two, worked around a day off here and there that might line up right. I can also see the St Paul shuttle bring up a SP for a game, instead of a pen arm, to create a skipped start. I'm hoping they can stretch him to a good 140 IP this year. I'm not a big fan of a 6 man rotation, though I can see the benefits of the extra day off here and there in the second half. But it depends on the pen stability as well since they'd be down to 7. If they can get Thielbar 100% to go along with the improved Jax and Moran, the surprising Stewart, and the maybe for real DeLeon, a 7 man pen might work. But again, I wonder if they'd do a true 6 man rotation or use the shuttle in some manner to simply use a 6th starter here and there instead of going with a straight 6 man.

Refsnyder as a reserve would be nice to have around. He was solid when with us, but sure wasn't great. Out if everyone else listed, Wade is the only one who's been anything close to consistent and the one guy from the whole bunch I'd like to still have. That doesn't mean I want to keep Kepler. I'm just saying it's a pretty weak competition. I can't think of anyone in any sport, or any occupation, performing below average for 3 straight years and declining further each year, but still keeping their job. Especially when there are younger, less expensive candidates with actual upside waiting in the wings.

I've stated in the last OP that there is a chance the Twins might go HS player twice. Money to spend and potential it MIGHT happen. But I agree with Dman that the FO has to look at HIT ability FIRST and power second in the early rounds. Budding power is better than extreme power with limited hit ability. I like Mathews a lot as an athlete with the ability to play anywhere. I like him better than Geloff. I'm not scared by Witt. He went through TJ already and returned to the rotation for his college team. Odds are he won't go through it again. The physical tools are there to make a next step. He might be a 1st round talent who slips just based on being "acared" his arm and control don't return. I think he might be a real steal. Not IN on Horvath unless I'm convinced he's a future 3B. I just don't trust a pick that high for a 3B unless I'm convinced he has the hands and arm to play the spot. Seen too many 3B converts to 1B and OF. I'd be in on Matthews or Witt at this spot.

So as talented and gifted as he is, as much as he's torn through AAA and looked ML ready, we might still be surprised he slumps at some point? Especially with the time he's missed? I'm a HUGE believer in Lewis. At the now "old" age of 24yo, (SERIOUS sarcasm), I think he's just a NATURAL, with a long and strong career ahead of him. But I've never thought he might not struggle a bit once he reaches the ML level. He has slumped the past couple of weeks. Even then, he's still out performered more than a couple of other bats. He's a rookie coming of so missed time playing 3B, mostly, for the first time in years. He's been solid to good there, even made a handful of great plays. I'm not the least worried about his defense at 3B as he gets more time there, even though I'm not sure it's his permanent position. Everyone struggles with the bat here and there. And I have high hopes that Miranda will find himself again and be an important bat at 3B/1B/DH. But any "hot streak" to get right has been brief. No way I'd give Lewis any sort of re-set at this point. It's way too early to he's going through anything but a slump. And way too early to say Miranda has figured it out to be promoted. I even type this as Lewis has 2 hits tonight against Boston. The OP is at least a couple weeks too early IMO. Lewis stays to work things out for now.

Repeating what I posted previously in a milb thread, and touched on here, he was a starting catcher at Clemson until he had an arm injury. I can't recall if it was TJ or a shoulder issue. But he spent his senior season as a 1B/DH. Thus, he was a later pick who signed for the $10K minimum. And the Twins did work him at catcher initially. One of the Twins pitching prospects, Winder I think, spoke about working with Williams behind the plate and pretty much raved about him. (Year or so ago). While I can only speculate, and while catchers don't have to be great athletes to play the position, he either has something athletically limiting him behind the plate, OR, his arm has just never recovered. I'm betting it's the latter, which has lead him to the transition to being a 1B/DH, who CAN catch. I LOVE to grab a piece of paper, even a napkin, and work out lineups on a consistent basis. It's my fanatical fandom, amateur GM persona. But there are always obvious restrictions. I mean, in this case, Williams is just going to fit as an OF, lol. And while I love me some prospects, and love Lee's potential, I've never seen him ready for 2023. He's always been 2024 and beyond in my personal prospectus. And there is a lingering question to be asked in the near future about the fate of Polanco, a tremendous player and one of my favorites, who's legs might just be 35yo even though the rest of him is yet to turn 30. Add in the fact that Lewis could, POTENTIALLY be a stud at 2B, CF, or either corner OF, and things get more complicated. Work with me and follow me here. The VERY BEST INF the Twins could put together, really soon, is a combination of Correa at SS, Lee and Lewis at 2B/3B, and Kirilloff at 1B. Where does that leave Julien? Well, ideally, playing almost every day at 2B/1B/DH, and MAYBE some LF. Again, this leaves no room for Polanco. What about Miranda? I had high hopes he'd cover both INF corners and DH. AK can still play some corner OF as well. And for 2024 at least, Farmer would make a hell of a great utility player. What an amazing INFIELD! BUT, despite being a bit of a late bloomer at 26yo...25yo in "prospect years" if you follow my standard covid missed year logic...Williams is showing a legitimate ML bat and hitting potential. He just might be a real 1B/DH talent who replaces Solano on the roster, even though they are very different players. But there probably isn't room for both he AND Miranda. So in theory, Williams and Miranda would be in competition for a RH power 1B/DH bat with Miranda being able to also play 3B...which might not be a big deal looking at the rest of the roster...and Williams being a functional 3rd catcher. And all of this variable roster construction still allows Lewis to maybe move to the OF, and for Kirilloff to also continue to play at least some corner OF. Nice to have so much depth and so many options right? We aren't even talking about OF talent and depth, just so many options to have one of the best INFIELDS in all of MLB, even IF we dismiss Polanco, which is NOT an easy IF. All that being said...the Buxton situation changes a TON of things, and lineup projections! I am SO TIRED of, frankly, flippant thoughts that Buxton moving to CF cures everything. Byron will probably always be a bit of a streaky hitter. But DAMN is he good and dangerous when he's on! And he's one of the best CF I've ever seen. But if his knees and hip allowed him to play CF right now, don't you think he'd be out there? And conserving him this year, maybe he'll be there for the playoffs. And maybe he'll still play a greater CF role in 2024 and beyond and he will open up the DH spot at least part time. It's so frustrating to hear demands to move him to CF tomorrow, with the expectation he will break down again, and also then hear complaints he can't be relied on. The Twins are trying to keep him healthy and productive as can be for 2023. NOBODY is saying his CF days are done. BUT...I think we all might have to accept that it might be true. From that point, it's up to Buck to FIND A ROUTINE AND ATTITUDE that ALLOWS him to be a bat only player. I don't know that anyone complained when Cruz was added as a DH only player for the Twins. I don't know that anyone complained when Molitor was brought on board years ago as a DH only. Pretty sure Boston never complained about a certain X Twin that converted to full time DH. The problem with a full time DH is it restricts your 13 man roster. But if you have a special hitter for that spot, do we care? If Buxton can "convert" mentally and physically to that role, he could be excellent. But it would mean building up the remaining 12 position players to be the best they could be, not unlike the AL for decades before the 26 man roster. And when you look at a potential lineup of names that include not only Buxton, but Lewis, Correa, Lee, Julien, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and more than a few others, the future looks pretty bright if everyone just finds their place. Unfortunately, despite roster depth and versatility, a full time DH, Buxton in theory, provides one less spot for a position player. That's bad news for a potential bat like Williams. The good news is increased versatility from the rest of the roster might allow a bat like his to find a spot. And while I wish MLB would return to the covid 28 man roster as I believe it would make more sense in today's world of MLB, Williams has a shot if he can continue to do what he's doing. If you can continue to do what he's been doing, an opportunity will open for you.

Chpettit19 hit it so perfectly, I almost feel guilty trying to add. Every single roster spot is important. You never want someone taking up the final pen or position player spot just to fill a spot. Everyone serves a purpose. That being said, pre-covid, rosters have been at 25 FOREVER, with the mad experiment/issue of teams playing with only 24 twenty something years ago. So having any sort of specialist or "do it all" player as the last man on the bench is kind of a luxury. Castro fits that role perfectly. He's not the batter we saw in May, and I think we all knew that. But he's also not probably as bad ax he's looked through the first couple of weeks of June either. He hit the ball well against Detroit well in the 1st game loss and bounced his AVG back to .250 again. (Can't believe he got thrown trying to stretch that double in to a triple)! While by no means a great hitter, he's not horrible, can swing from both sides, has some pop, generally runs the bases well, and is a real SB weapon on a team lacking speed. And to top it off, he can be plugged in just about anywhere defensively and be good to OK everywhere. I've actually been encouraged by his work in CF, though he's obviously a work in progress there. Despite being promoted too early by Detroit and never developing there, he's spent too much time at the ML level to really gain anything at the AAA level, IMO. He's better, again IMO, working with the Twins coaches. The only thing he might gain is a re-set if he badly struggles. A couple bad weeks is not really a struggle. And again, a good game against Detroit despite the baserunning mistake. The only reason to option him, really, is if/when Gordon is back, with no options, or if Helman comes back and gets on a roll and they want a close look at him instead, for whatever reason. Otherwise, I think he's pretty safe as well as valuable simply as a "play anywhere" option with pop and much needed speed. Now, if we want to really explore a position player debate about a hole, it begins and ends with Kepler, very sorry to say. Even with Larnach struggling to take hold of opportunity at this point, he's still outproducing Max and at 4yrs younger actually offers upside. Not to mention Wallner is maybe better than both. And yet, the steadily downturning Kepler is blocking opportunity for BOTH younger bats. Why? Experience and depth? Mmm, OK. So the Twins keep poor production...granted quality defense...over a pair of young players with much higher upsides that might actually improve the lineup. And if anything happens to either of them and they have to dig even deeper, they have a pair of journeymen in AAA having excellent seasons in Contreras and Stevenson. And if said worst case scenario happened, either would have to replace a .180-.190 hitter with limited power, at this point, and a .634 OPS. Even in relatively SSS over 395 ML AB, Stevenson beats Kepler's numbers this year, and pretty much what he's been going back to mid 2022. And this is ONLY if something happens to Larnach and Wallner and we have to dig deep. Oh, Kirilloff can also play corner OF. So why in the world would "depth" be any sort of real issue? Castro fills a real role on this team, unless he suddenly bottoms out, which I'm not expecting. And he is probably the last player, at this point, to be worried about as far as roster construction is concerned.

Best Randball Stu OP EVER! Hayes wanting to watch the world burn had me blurt out laughter. Only thing is...are we for certain 90% of the OP isn't factual?

This discussion isn't really that hard. 1] Even really good LH hitters will see their OPS drop 50-80 points, roughly, when facing a LH pitcher. Does that make them a useless player? No. An .800 OPS bat dropping down to a .700 ish OPS bat isn't horrible, or useless in any way. Further, not having to platoon such a player increases lineup versatility game by game by not having to platoon. 2] Are the Twins going to rest AK once in a while to be conservative regarding his surgery and recovery. Yes. OK, then you might as well rest him against LH arms to maximize his production. It's just being smart. 3] Going back to point #1, neither Kirilloff or Julien are probably EVER going to have an OPS in the high .700 range, much less .800 or more, against LH pitchers as that would make them rare and elite. But that doesn't mean they can't be valuable with a lower to mid .700 OPS. And again, you now eliminate platoon needs, for the most part. Everything about Kirilloff and Julien, bat to ball skills, approach, etc, screams great bat with lefty/lefty potential. But you never know, and they never get there if they don't get opportunity. So you give them opportunity to learn and grow and prove themselves. But it would also be stubbornly foolish to NEVER play the platoon odds or to never do so for a potential day off So yeah, let them play against LH arms. But it doesn't have to be all at once, every time.

So based on this, and how the first 5 picks probably SHOULD play out, is it possible the Twins draft a HS OF and then a HS arm next? Hmmm...interesting. And the Twins might have enough signing $ to entice a top HS arm to sign with their comp or #2 selection. I am a sucker for LHSP with upside. We got a couple in Hajjar and Povich. And Povich looks like the better of the two. I sure wouldn't draft only on handedness, but I wouldn't hate seeing the likes of Sullivan or O'Halloran on day two.

Hey Mike, just to add a little more to what Steve posted previously, IIRC, he was a senior sign following the 2018 draft out of Clemson. He moved to 1B/DH his senior year due to an arm issue that I want to say was TJ. While he's continued to catch, mixed in with some 1B/DH, he's been primary out from behind the plate the past 2 years. I don't have clarification, but I think a lot of it has to do with his arm never coming back. Someone...Winder I think??...was speaking highly of him on a radio interview last season for his knowledge and control behind the plate, but again, 2022 and this year he's basically a 1B/DH who CAN catch. He hit well initially after he was drafted, more or less tanked, (believe there might have been another small injury somewhere in there), and then make a heck of a comeback with the bat the past couple of years with power, AVG, OB%, and some great OPS numbers. Unfortunately, as good as he's looked the past 1 1/2 years, 26yo 1B/DH types aren't usually considered top prospects. I think he could hold his own at the ML level if given a shot, but he's definitely behind a few guys right now.

100%! I should have been more detailed that they STILL should have made an attempt at a FA arm that might pay off, since it's always a crap shoot. But simply, if they really and truly believed there was something there, he could have and should have begun in that role to prove himself while filling a role. Still doesn't excuse keeping him when his $3.5M could have been better spent elsewhere.

He's not going to help the Twins in 2023. Too long of a road to MLB coming off injury and getting roughly half a season in which to do so. But he can prepare for 2024. The reason he stuck at SS for as long as he did, from what I heard many month ago, was simply to get more time and more chances playing in the dirt, and just work on the basics of fielding and throwing. From there, he could take that experience and slide easily to 2B/3B, positions he's more familiar with and played in college. The Twins weren't wrong in trying to increase his power. You have to realize, working to increase power isn't about turning everyone in to a 20+ HR slugger. More power also means doubles and triples if you have speed. Low power from a hitter means pitchers can challenge more, with less fear, and even good contact and good BB rates doesn't equal production if a quality ML pitcher can just overpower you. There are very few Arraez types who have limited power and can succeed. And even he has developed a little more pop over time. You end up with Ben Revere with little or zero pop in the bat. Virtually every single team will look to make adjustments for more power to make a batter more dangerous. Doesn't mean you are trying to develop a slugger. Such is the case with Martin. If his arm holds up, or recovers well after any potential surgery, I think it's very possible he still plays 2B as well as 3B on a utility basis. Depth is a good thing. But he never has to, or should, play SS again. And he doesn't have to with Correa, Lewis, and Lee sometime in 2024. Heck, Farmer will likely still be with the Twins next year as well. Someone commented months ago from the Twins that they felt Martin to slide to the OF "tomorrow" and be just fine, and that he was a natural out there. Hence part if the reason they kept him in the INF for as long as they did. And that's where he's going to end up. I DO think he could be a RH Gordon, and that's not a bad thing. It just means he could cover 2B/3B as well as the OF, not that he'd necessarily be a "reserve", just versatile. If and when he reaches MLB, he's going to be a LF and/or CF. Not sure about RF as I believe that's going to be Larnach or Wallner, unless Lewis moves out there. Then again, I wouldn't be shocked if Royce still ends up in CF either. Is Martin going to be a starter somewhere? Potentially yes. He has the bat and OB skills and speed and athleticism to be a fine OF with top of the order potential, even with mostly doubles kind of power. (I think he has enough natural strength to settle in as a "teens" HR hitter naturally). But it's up to him to get healthy, and prove he can hit and get OB and run at the ML level. It's not like there isn't competition. He could be the Twins starting CF or LF fairly soon if his close to 2022 and AFL performance is legit. He'll play both, but other players might determine where he slots in best. He and Julien could make a hell of a 1-2 to get the offense going! He could also be a daily player who moves around. He might also end up a really good and versatile veserve. Said it before and will again, NOBODY with the Twins is ruling Buxton out of CF in the future. Even as a part timer out there. But the simple truth is his body might never allow him to be a fixture out there again and you're hoping he pulls a "Molitor" and finds ways to stay prepared and engaged to being a successful DH. That means CF might be open. I could see, potentially, Taylor brought back for 2024. I could also see someone else brought in via FA or trade for a short term solution. It's really unfortunate that BOTH Celestino and Martin had lingering injuries this year as BOTH might be solid options to be primary CF in 2024. Let's not forget that Celestino is still quite young and has some good tools. In the short time he's been at AAA...after his too soon, emergency promotion...he's raked there. The best thing that could happen for both of them is to be healthy and ready for AAA ASAP, and get ready for 2024. But I do like Martin better as a possible long term solution there. He just needs to be healthy. If he needs surgery, it doesn't eliminate him from the future, but it continues to delay and possible future.

ONLY 5? OH, I get it, just the WORST 5. Surprised he isn't at the bottom of the WPA! I thought I had heard he was the worst in the last 5yrs. Guess there's reason for optimism huh? Lol But seriously, how can virtually everyone on the outside looking in see how bad he is and those closest to can't? IF he was going to be kept...and he was...he should have been the 8th guy to pitch multiple innings to "take one for the team" here and there. Which, honestly, has seldom been needed. Shouldn't have been brought back. Should have been cut after the Jay's game. Almost anyone could be better than he's been.

The simple truth is the team we began with for 2023 is not that bad. The problem is poor performance from those on that roster, as well as some injuries, and some stubbornness from the FO that defies logic. How do you trade for a 1B when Krilloff is healthy...thank the baseball gods something went right for once...is one of your best performers and finally looking like he's ready to get his career rolling. Of course, he can play a decent corner OF...so you COULD play him more there, but.... A healthy Gallo has really done everything asked of him, and has looked just about like his past All Star level previously with poor AVG and good OB and power and production. He's back in a day or two. Despite his struggles and a bout with pneumonia, Larnach has frankly out produced Kepler, while playing good defense generally and still flashing his arm. Wallner is the Twins reigning milb hitter of the year and destroying AAA, while looking at least decent at the ML level so far, and we'd want to sacrifice MORE milb talent for an OF bat before we'd see what the prospects can do, along with Gallo? Lewis is a stud and going nowhere. Correa needs to step forward, unless he just can't, pun somewhat intended, but he's recently starting to look like that might be happening. Polanco is a great ballplayer, but right now, we just don't know if or when his legs are going to be ready. In the meantime, Julien is just getting better and better, though he's a step down defensively. Other than replacing the not great but solid and generally productive Salono with a re-snergized Miranda...which MIGHT happen...there is no INF addition that makes sense. Unless it's at 1B, and then we look at the previous 1B/OF crunch previously mentioned. The offense still has real potential. Especially if Correa is ready to take off and Buxton and Gallo come back soon to be their normal streaky but dangerous and productive selves. If you hadn't noticed, AK and Julien and Lswis are starting to lead this team. Jeffers has really improved this season. And again, Larnach has out produced Kepler. What might Wallner do? The rotation is fine. The pen is not as bad as some make it appear to be. When the offense is as poor and unpredictable as its been, ANY run allowed, or bad day, will make the pen look worse than it really is. Despite simply being human, Duran is a stud. Jax went through some early season crap, but has been looking like his normal self as of late. Moran has settled in and has been pretty damn good. Stewart has been a godsend and doesn't appear to be just a flash. He's a former top arm who went to hell and back and found a new career in this role. Same as Thielbar. But speaking of Thielbar, they need to get him RIGHT. An oblique injury can linger. Eventually, he's going to fade. But I don't think he's ready to do that. Considering the upcoming schedule, they need to get him ready for the balance of the season in July on. Let him rest and get ready for July on. Speaking of former top prospects who get healthy and adapt to a pen role, DeLeon has looked pretty good. I'm not going to trust him right now in a crucial 8th or 9th spot, but he's looking good in the middle innings. I'm NOT saying the pen is perfect. It's not. Fully healthy, WITH Thielbar eventually, even with the improvement of Jax and Moran and the surprises of Stewart and maybe DeLeon, that's a POTENTIAL 6 you MIGHT rely on. The problem is...even with a healthy Thielbar... the Twins are still holding on to Pagan for reasons only THEY seem to understand, and the standard 8th pen arm that is a rotational piece. I GET the 8th arm rotational arm, but how often have we needed it this year? Further, how long can the FO just ignore having the WORST RP in all of baseball and Twins history as the 7th man? I understand the season started with arms like Winder and Henriquez hurt who might have helped. And Sands was looking better in his role before he also got injured. And Alcala is out, but he too might be back before the year is done. But even if you want to leave the 8th spot open for "whoever" , you can't trust SOMEONE to be better than the worst RP in all of MLB for 5yrs running? Dump Pagan tomorrow, a year too late, and bring up Ortega, or give Balazovic his first ML shot out of the pen. Or, I don't know, even though we want Headrick to be the next SP in line, maybe he should be up with Thielbar out. The BEST THING the Twins could do right now, besides dumping Pagan for ANYONE, is trying to fix Lopez. The velocity and stuff is there. Maki and Suggs need to get in his head and fix it, or his mix, and get him right again. If they can do that, the entire pen changes. If not, we need to add an arm at the deadline. The bite is, even with a few bad performances from said pen, the lineup is why the Twins aren't a good a 10 games above. 500 or more. And I honestly don't know who you sacrifice in trade value to improve on what you already have if they just tweak on what's available, make the one tough call, and give a chance to what's on hand.

I thought Petty might have been a steal, and I hated to see him go. But any time you can move a HS pitcher for a proven ML SP of the quality of Gray, you make that move. This trade turns even better if Gray is re-signed, but is almost as good if he accepts the QO for 2024. If he doesn't, they get a top pick in the next draft, which is no guarantee to turn out, but a nice bonus for the 2yrs we got. Jury is still out on Miller, but the defense plays already. I don't know that I would have pushed him so hard to CR this year. No matter what he does, I wouldn't be surprised to see him start 2024 at the same level. If the Twins are patient with him...he's so damn young and malleable...they might have something. I loved trading for Mahle as I thought he was just at the right point in his career where he was ready to take the next step, especially getting out of the band box he was throwing in in Cincinnati. I didn't like moving Steer, ECS, and Hajjar to do it. And I believed they made that trade because they believed Mahle was going to make the jump that I saw, and were going to offer him an extension similar to the one Lopez got. Alas, this one is probably going to hurt in the next few years. Where I find solace is even now, I'm not sure where Steer and ECS would fit in the future plans of the Twins. Even IF Polanco isn't in any plan for the future, the Twins have Correa, Lewis, Lee, and Julien to place, PLUS Kirilloff at 1B and maybe some OF still. And even assuming a season at mostly DH for Buxton in 2023 to help his legs, he might, AT LEAST, end up with quite a bit of time at DH in the future. I'm kind of expecting/hoping at this point he follows the career path of Molitor and learns to embrace the DH spot, find the right mental/physical adaption needed, and just rake in that spot going forward. I don't think the Twins will, ultimately, "miss" having Steer or ECS, but what they will "miss" is not getting better value for them than the eventual TJ version of Mahle. The Povich trade...along with a couple low level IL signings...hurt. I thought they got a steal in Povich. But again, trading young arms so low in the system for a big arm ssemed right at the time. Unfortunately, we may lose this trade as well. Jorge Lopez was having an absolutely tremdous 1st year as a recent convert to the pen. Then, mid convert season, and worried about family matters outside his control, he was average at best post trade. I had high hopes for him to begin this season and he looked GREAT the 1st month. Since May 1st, he's been a wreck. I never expected his 2022 version to be back. It was unsustainable. But 85-90% of that would have still been excellent. The velocity and stuff is still there. I don't know if it's his mix, or a confidence issue, or mechanical. But Maki and Suggs had better figure a way to reach him and get him RIGHT, or we not only lose this trade, but the 2023 pen continues to miss an arm that could make a major difference. They seem to have gotten Jax back on track, and Moran. Now it's time to get Lopez right. The rest of the draft remains very, very interesting. Macleod has some real potential as an injury signing, but he's old enough that he has to figure it out pretty quickly. But then again, he's coming off a missed year due to TJ. Not sure what to think about Adams. Not sure he should have been pushed this far up for 2023, but I do appreciate the thought to challenge him as a college arm. He's not old, and he's flashed a little. But any 2nd half improvement needs to begin pretty soon. Festa might be a key for this whole draft. He only threw 8 innings when drafted. He then raked in 2022 at A ball, slipped a little, and then finished strong. Now, in AA, he's certainly flashed while being inconsistent. But he only recently turned 23yo and seems to have some electric stuff. Interesting to me that catchers Cardenas and Winkel were drafted in that order, but Winkel has been moved more quickly. Not that 1 round makes a big difference. Winkel hasn't shown much power yet, and hasn't set the world on fire, but makes decent contact and has done a really good job so far with BB and OB. But it's always been my understanding Cardenas has more power potential and as good of contact and OB ability. I'm guessing Winkel moving up earlier is due to defense? I feel no need to rush catchers, but Cardenas, although at a lower level, has a better BA, OB, SLG, and OPS than Winkel. With Cossetti now at CR, does Cardenas get moved up to AA soon? Nowlin is a late round blessing and mystery. He's a 22yo LH with a somewhat less than perfect build who has velocity and at least one great breaking ball who has induced 12.5K numbers in his brief milb career. His hits per are fine. His BB are not fine. I confess to not recalling exactly what he throws. He's throwing 5IP per start, which is about right for a young arm. It might be optimistic to believe he's a future SP as a 19th round pick. But if he can harness his control and secondary stuff as he moves up, why wouldn't you leave him in a rotation for now? You just never know. BUT, he just might be someone a year to two from now that might be knocking on the door as a LH arm at the ML level to make a difference in the pen along with Moran and maybe Funderburk or Headrick. The 2021 draft is going to come down, potentially, as one that brought in ML talent for the Twins via trade that is going to be a mixed bag of not getting enough for Mahle, perhaps not enough for J Lopez, though that story is not yet written, and at least 2 very good seasons of Gray. Jorge Lopez getting his act together might just make all the difference in how this draft is perceived in the future in regard to "talent lost". He gets his act together, along with the Gray addition, the whole complexion changes, despite the Mahle loss. There is a reasonable chance at this point that Festa might just be another Ober, Varland kind of rotation find, given a little more time. Forget high ceiling, how about high floor, decent ceiling, they might have a dangerous LH arm for the pen in Nowlin. And they just might find a solid ML catcher in the LH Winkel, or the more promising, IMO, of the RH Cardenas. Despite "loses" and lost opportunity, we might look back at the 2021 draft and be pretty happy with what we traded for, and what we kept and developed. Of course, we won't know for a couple of years.

Kepler is an excellent defensive RF, and was pretty good in CF, when he played there. Forgetting any metric, I don't think his defense can be disputed, and that adds value to his overall career and any Twins legacy. For his career, his OPS+ sits at exactly 100. That's exactly average. Combine that with his defense makes him a good player overall. He's been over 100 OPS+ in 2 seasons, 2019 obviously being the outlier. 2020 was also above 100+. He's had 5yrs somewhere in the 90's, which means below average at a position that is usually an offensive spot. But a little below average, combined with great defense, doesn't make him a bad player, but makes him, at best, an average to slightly better than average OVERALL player, despite being below average offensively. It's also not his fault he was often batted higher in the lineup than he should have probably been. I think that skews his perception somewhat. And despite some tame rants I've had regarding Kepler's rather obvious nosedive with the bat the past 2 1/3 seasons, and practically begging for the younger Larnach and Wallner to take his spot...both younger and with higher ceilings offensively...I've been a Kepler fan since the day he was signed. But there is little to no room to call him one of the Twins best OF simply due to longevity, good defense, and below average offense. I decided to take a moment and look at the OPS+ of several Twins OF in the past few decades. ALL of them were in the Twins OF for a minimum of 5yrs. In an attempt to be as fair as possible, I eliminated the 1st year of Denard Span as it was a SSS with a very high OPS+ of 127. And I also eliminated the first, brief appearances, of Cuddyer as they were SSS when he was still being tried out in the INF. Lawton 100 Jones 100 Span 104 Rosario 109 Cuddyer 109 Brunansky 111 Mack 132 A few of these played LF, some saw limited action in CF, and Span was a true CF. And maybe the illusive B-WAR offers Kepler points for his RF defense. But OPS+ plus indicates at least 2 long time Twins OF were evry bit as good offensively as Kepler. The other 5 ranked higher. And while Rosario was always a bit of a lightening rod concerning defensive value, his OPS+ remains greater than Kepler. But I'm not sure any of the others on this list could be described as poor defensive players when they were Twins. Matt, you are correct when you mention career reflection vs immediate relevancy changing the perspective of a player. But it's also an unequivocal fact that Kepler is on a 3yr plus downturn in his production, even including a solid 2020. And I don't think it's very debatable that his presence is blocking a pair of 4 and 5 year younger players that are much less expensive, and have higher offensive ceilings, even though they probably won't match Max's defense. But one of the top Twins OF of all time? Five plus years from the names above, who all wore Twins uniforms for at least 5 seasons seems to state, IMO at least, that Kepler might not even be in the top 10.

You can never have too much pitching. And a healthy Mahle is a pretty good rotation arm. So is Paddack, based on the early returns after he joined the Twins. But for each guy, you just don't know how they will come back. Some guys are the same. Some better than ever. And some never make it back fully. So while I have hope for Paddack in 2024 and beyond, he's no sure thing. And there's no way, right now, to predict 2025. So why not have Mahle as a possible answer/option? But repeating pretty much everyone else, the numbers have to make sense. Not sure I agree with a troubled shoulder issue in 2022, and now TJ, and paying him $5M to recover. If so, then it should shrink the 2nd year value. They can get him for 2yrs and $15M total with some IP incentives that could bump him to $17-18M, then I'm on board and the Twins should be as well. It's really not that big of a risk. But I'm also OK walking away and focusing any Mahle attention and $ elsewhere.

Watched some of the game, monitored it also on the "live" MLB page when I couldn't watch it. 1] Varland deserved better. 2] I don't want her my hopes up, but the bats at least appear to be heating up. Let's hope it's not an illusion. 3] But Correa on 3rd base with ZERO outs and all we can muster is a pair of SO and a weak...normal...Kepler grounder to 2B? 4] After the commercial break, i heard the Twins booth trying to legitimize, or explain, the called 3rd strike on Kirilloff for not being in the box and ready at the 8 second mark. Maybe, maybe AK didn't have his eyes focused on the pitcher for a moment, but he was standing on the box, head up, and bat held high at 9 seconds. Or maybe I'm going blind. That was atrocious! 5] Even with a 2 run lead, I quit watching or following when Pagan came in. I already knew what was going to happen, I didn't need to watch it. And just like last year, just like this year, he absolutely blows it. And he's done this again and again for multiple teams for 5 consecutive years. 5 years as the worst RP in all of MLB with the lowest WPA, and yet he still has a job for some reason. Not only should he not have been in the pen to begin with, but repeating the same ineptitude this season should have him gone Monday. I would trust almost anyone from AAA over him at this point. Just ridiculous.

I wasn't sure what to make of him when drafted. There just didn't see anything that jumped off the page when I read about him. A decent frame and fewer innings at a smaller school made him interesting as having a lot of growth potential. Sure looks like that is the case so far. Just about everyone from the 2022 draft is off to a great start in their pro career.

Considering age and level, I wasn't overly concerned he might be selected in rule 5, but I was worried someone might sweep in and grab him as a milb FA. And I was VERY HAPPY the Twins re-signed him, despite some initial confusion about his namesake of a utility infielder, lol. I do believe if the Twins needed a 3rd catcher they would find a way for the vastly more experienced Wolters. Why wouldn't you add an experienced ML catcher at this point, having a solid season. Everything I've ever heard or read about Camargo is that he's a quality backstop with a good arm, and budding power. And I've been watching him pretty intently since acquired, especially since last year. He, like a lot of prospects in the system, were pushed to a higher level this year than I expected. I honestly thought he'd start 2023 in Wichita. To be only 23yo, as a catcher, pushed to AAA after little more than a half season at AA really surprised me. I know this gets old, and I'm tired of it too, but DEVELOPMENT AGE of so many prospects is really a year younger than physical age. I just don't know how anyone can dispute that logically. So Camargo is still rather young at 23yo, but is 22yo in developmental time. Even at 23yo, he's not old for AAA, and catchers sometimes take a little longer unless they are "special" prospects. It's probably the hardest position to find both offense and defense. Despite age and experience, the Twins have pushed Jair. He's responded brilliantly since his first few weeks. He's going to come down, most assuredly. And the best thing that could happen for him is for Jeffers and Vazquez to remain healthy, and for the veteran Wolters to remain the "emergency" 3rd catcher. And that sort of goes against my immediate philosophy of running with prospects at various other positions. But we're talking about a very young catching prospect just coming in to his own. I would much rather see him building up his bat, game, and approach for the rest of 2023, being added to the 40 man, and making his ML debut as the 3rd catcher in 2024. Catcher of the future? Please! I really like the kid! But he's not going to supplant Vazquez or Jeffers any time soon. Jeffers especially seems to be making a claim offensively and defensively to maybe being the #1. Time will tell. Camargo needs to focus on better contact and less K's. Right now, he's Drew Butera with more power. And that's not bad. But better contact, a better "hit" tool could propel him to being an awesome #2. But he's still a ways away from riding a hot streak at AAA from being a #1 "catcher of the future". The fun part is, what might he be a year from now? BTW, FWIW, I have no illusions about Isola suddenly becoming a true catcher prospect, despite a great season in AA. But the Twins have drafted 5 catchers in the past 2 drafts and signed a couple IL kids. So they haven't been ignoring the position. Winkel has been pushed hard to AA after only being drafted in 2021, but offers some potential. Cardenas, also selected in 2021, is behind him but looking better offensively. And Cossetti is looking pretty damn strong as a dual strength catcher as well. Baez, also drafted last year with Cossetti, was held back initially. But he's a great athlete who came to catching full time late. He's got more athleticism than you normally see in a catcher. He's rough around the edges to be sure. But if he puts in the work, he MIGHT just be one of the best selections in 2022. NONE of these options are going to be ready for at least 2yrs plus. The good news is there is potential in the system, and Vazquez and Jeffers SHOULD have the position locked down for the next few years. That doesn't mean Camargo can't be a quality ML option. It just means he has to keep doing what he's doing and continue to improve as a "hitter" and wait for opportunity.

I want to begin with this first: A] 20R/ 4DBL/ 2TRP/ 6HR/ 28RBI/ .207AVG/ .308OB/ .386SLG/ .694OPS B] 20R/ 5DBL/ 0TRP/ 7HR/ 18RBI/ .197AVG/ .268OB/ .387SLG/ .655OPS OK, now guess who players A and B are? Player A is Larnach, and B is Kepler. I am NOT on a crusade or trying to pile on anyone, but both have nearly identical games played and AB, and Larnach is outproducing Kepler despite being a work in progress. And he's 4yrs younger, almost $8M cheaper, controllable, and has room to grow and improve. He will never be as good defensively as Kepler, but he's pretty solid and has at least as good of an arm, if not better. Meanwhile, Kepler is on a 3yr slide that keeps getting worse. Do I really have to state the obvious here? And I haven't even mentioned the Twins reigning milb hitter of the year, Wallner, looking like he can play at the ML level and tearing up AAA. The Twins could, quite literally, bring up Contreras from St Paul, a fine defensive OF, having probably his best season to date, and use him to replace Kepler and probably get as much performance, if not more. Again, do I have to state the obvious here? Opportunity has to be presented and allowed. Period. AK and Lewis are, seemingly, hopefully, FINALLY healthy and ready to get on with their careers. They have already flashed and are amongst the best/most dynamic players on the roster. And they are here to stay, baseball gods willing. So there's a start, and potential start that should happen sooner rather than later. When you examine a few changes to the 2023 team, and some things happening in the minors, you see a subtle shift in regard to speed. The Twins want to take extra bases, and run a bit more. For the NOW, this team is still...primarily but not exclusively...built for power and OB and runs scored as a result, with acceptable SO numbers. The problem is they are not getting the power they expected, or the run production, and the SO's are horrible. Jeffers has lowered his K %. Gallo is essentially neutral. But virtually everyone else has seen their K% rise 20-35%. This includes guys like Vazquez and Farmer, who weren't brought in a power bats. So what gives? I think it's WAY TOO EASY to blame the FO or coaching staff for some mythical agenda. How can some players speak in glowing terms about Popkins and he's the problem? How can Jeffers, and even Castro, show real improvement but the coaching is terrible? Does this fall on the players just all pressing or having bad seasons at once? Is it a weird coincidence? If anyone wants to tell me you have the answer, I'd sure love to hear it. But I'd be willing to bet you aren't exactly 100% correct. Gallo has been exactly as hoped for when healthy, streaky, but dangerous and productive. Buxton, also streaky, has looked great when hot, even flashing some speed and great baserunning despite bad wheels, despite being restricted to DH. He's single-handedly won a few games, as has Gallo. Not hard to see both continue to produce when back, despite each being "streaky". Whether you are a fan or not, Correa is NOT this poor of a hitter, despite his much slower than normal start to this season. Is it pressure? Has his heel been affecting worse than we know? I simply don't know, and none of us do. It sure hasn't affected his great defense. Hopefully he gets right in the batters box SOON. There is NOTHING WRONG with what Farmer, Solano, or Taylor have done so far. They've done EXACTLY what they were supposed to do. Taylor probably the most. But none of them, including Castro, was supposed to be playing almost daily. What they've done is keep the team afloat around .500 or above despite being stretched. And I simply can't and won't blame the FO, or the coaching staff, for Celestino, or Martin, or even Helman not being ready to help at all at this point. Not sure I can blame them for Gordon's poor start, but then getting hot before a broken bone. Considering Miranda thrived in 2022 with the same staff, but got off to a horrific start this year, who is to blame for that? Polanco is one of my favorite Twins players, and an absolute stud when healthy. Is it the fault of the FO or the coaching staff, or the new trainer, that he was slow to recover in the offseason? Or is hurt again now? He makes a difference when healthy. And I'd have a hard time believing the Twins wouldn't bring him back in 2024 for his reasonable deal. Where I DO blame the FO is NOT in their general construction of the team, but in their seeming procrastination of changes. They wanted Kepler as a veteran floor OF due to questions? OK, I can understand that at least. But enough is enough! Unless they plan on NOT bringing Polanco back in 2024, why in hell is Julien ONLY playing 2B? Totally agree his arm should dismiss him from 3B conversation. But why not 1B? Why not LF? He's played them both in college and his 1st milb season. He's still a good athlete with decent speed. How much worse could he be in LF than previous options such as Young, or Willingham, or thrusting Arraez or Gordon in to the OF in previous seasons and expected to learn on the fly? For a team that is trying to embrace e roster and lineup flexibility, with a putrid offense that is incredibly inconsistent, why are they seemingly ignoring young talent with high ceilings and the opportunity to spark the lineup, and do things they've actually done before? I am NOT dismissing individual players who have simply underperformed. Nor am I dismissing the possibility of a poor collective approach taught by the staff. But then again, I don't know that the approach being taught is at fault, or the player's implantation of said plan is in error. EXAMPLE: are they being told to NOT swing early at a pitch that looks good early vs working the count? Or are they pressing, looking to make a HUGE impact on a pitch and getting in their own head? THAT'S on the coaching staff to figure out and work on, and communicate better. What the FO can do is make some hard or uncomfortable choices in roster construction to make a difference for NOW, as well as the future. Because what they are doing now isn't working. And I'm not going to address the pitching staff here, because really, it's the offense that is the problem. Sorry for being so long here, but dammit, this is the problem that should have the Twins 10-15 games above .500 and absolutely running away with the ALC.

You're absolutely right Nick, this team is wasting opportunity like I've ever seen before. The problem and question is how to fix it? 1] No comparisons need to be made, this is a top rotation. They've done their job, even IF you want to open previous discussions...ridiculous...that they've occasionally left their starters in too long for some bad 7th innings. 2] I'm tired of the bullpen arguements. No doubt there have been some BAD days. Jax wax fine early, had some crazy bad happen, got "unglued" and has looked much better lately. Duran is still great, but not perfect. Thielbar is back. Moran has gotten on track. Stewart has been a find. Lopez looked great early, and stinks now. Can they get him right? It's important that they do so, just Iike Jax. Is it a confidence issue? Or a change in his mix? Despite the pen not quite matching the performance of the rotation, they haven't really been that bad. And there is real hope and opportunity to see the pen get even deeper and better. But when the pen allows a run or two in a close game, their "failure" becomes magnified as the reason the Twins lost. But when you CAN'T SCORE RUNS, anything negative the pen does is magnified and amplified. 3] How in hell is this offense so bad??? Correa is a STUD. He's known for slow starts. He did the same in 2022, before "waking up" and got going. Can he fight through his plantar fasciitis and still be his usual self? Buxton is also a STUD. He's streaky as a hitter, and might always be so. But he's a difference maker when remotely healthy. He had an OPS above .800 a couple of weeks ago before his recent cold streak and rib injury. These 2 guys are difference makers and not going anywhere. And the Twins NEED them. Polanco is one of the best players on the team. Solid defense and quality offense, power and clutch hitting. And NOT a K machine. Now he's injured again, but is pretty awesome when healthy. Gallo has been exactly as hoped for, good defense wherever you place him, poor BA, quality OB, great power and RBI producer. But he's better as a 6 or 7 spot in the lineup hitter. But now he's hurt. The Twins have been getting surprising results from their bench, Taylor, Castro, and Solano. But that's not how you build a quality lineup on a daily basis. The best base stealers are bench players, though Buxton has helped where he can. And our best bunters are our catchers and bench players. And the Twins have been WAY more aggressive in bunts and SB the last month, and I credit Rocco for being more aggressive. But the simple fact is this team's offense has been inconsistent, if not lethargic! TWO or fewer runs scored in 25 games played! As fans, we want changes. But what do we change? Correa and Buxton have underperformed, but we know their talent and they are not only capable of making a difference, but they aren't going anywhere. Miranda bottomed out with a sophomore jinx? Kiriloff is doing all he can do. Lewis raked when he came up, hit a couple games cold spell, but can still make a difference. Jeffers needs more playing time based on production and ironically, time with Popkins. The FO needs to just replace Kepler with opportunity for Wallner and Larnach and let it ride. They should have done this before the season started, even with lower defensive value. I LOVE Polanco. But if he's really and truly starting to break down, it's time to make a change. When your offense is bad at historical levels, you just have to try something different, especially when you have top prospects with projectible ability. Coaches can only coach so much. And any hitting coach can only do so much. And Popkins might, or might not be a good hitting coach. But at some point it's also on the talent of the players you have. And I think it's TIME to trust in the young talent on hand and let things play out. What else do the Twins do, trade MORE prospect talent for a bat or two that might not be as good as what's on hand? Its time to trust the "kids"

Really appreciate all of these pre-draft threads! Thanks again to everyone who puts in their time and energy. Obviously it's a labor of love. Going to briefly re-wind a bit. Nobody in their right mind should pass on Crews or Skenes past 3 or 4. So they are simply off my board and wish list. I am starting to believe there is a reasonable chance Langford MIGHT slip to #5 for the Twins. A] SOMEONE might play the "underslot" game in order to save $ for a comp or #2 pick, especially to nab a top HS player/arm later that might seem a tough draw away from college. Sure wouldn't be the first time we've seen that the past few years. B] High quality arms are a tremendously valuable asset to EVERYONE. I can EASILY see a team before the Twins looking at Dollander...top 1-3 when the season began...and all his velocity and potential, and simply decide stuff, and track record, makes him too enticing to pass up. He lost some control this season but still had some great numbers? Fine. A few tweaks to his mechanics and suddenly you have that top 1-3 pre-season arm in your organization. C] While HS arms are the most volatile potential draftees, perhaps followed by SS that might not stick, HS OF's with tremendous tools are the safest HS prospects to draft. Jenkins and Clark provide a pair of tremdous teenage prospects with very high ceilings, one with more power, one with more speed. Both worthy of being drafted in the top 5. To me, it's not hard to see one of the 4 teams drafting in front of the Twins salivating over the younger Jenkins and Clark, and liking their ceiling better. And it's hard to say they'd be wrong. Considering my opinion of "no chance" for Crews or Skeens...a pretty safe bet...I'm hoping for Langford, Clark as my second option, though it's close, and I'm torn between Jenkins or Dollander for my 3rd choice. I DON'T want the Twins to overthink this. And I believe they should JUMP on Langford if he's available at 5. And IF chalk happens, they should be looking at Jenkins, Clark, or Dollander sitting there at the 5 spot. Personally, I'm hoping for Clark to be available. I'd sacrifice the pure power that Jenkins has over Clark to have the more TRUE CF option, which is lacking in the system. But honestly, would Dollander be a bad pick? I mean, I want the VERY BEST prospect to be selected, PERIOD. But as I stated previously in regard to other teams possible decisions, Dollander had all of the criteria to be a very smart choice. Right now he's projected somewhere around 7-ish. If you're the Twins, and you have an arm of this ability, from a kid with a great frame, great stuff, great projectability sitting there who might just need a couple of tweaks to get his control back, do you pass on him? Langford, then Clark, and then I'm torn on Jenkins vs Dollander. NOTE: I've heard whispers that Clark might have an attitude issue. And I despise gossip. Is this a real thing? Or just some confidence vs cocky thing imagined or blown out of proportion? Anyone have any feedback?

First of all, just want to state that I don't believe in spending a ton of $ on FA in regard to the pen. BUT, it's a tool to be used to help yourself. It seems like a 50/50 crapshoot most years as to whether you get a good pen arm or disappointing one. It's up to the FO, and the scouts, to try and guess right. And I DO believe they should have taken a shot this offseason to add depth, and to guard against Alcala being slow to get back. (I still have a lot of hope for Alcala, BTW). I also believe you should be looking for Stewart type EVERY SINGLE OFFSEASON. If not a couple of them. Quality Twins BP arms going back decades have been fliers like these. Current Thielbar is a great example. I'm still a little worried about Stewart's BB rate and hope to see it come down. But he's been a real baseball godsend to the Twins. And let's take a moment to point out it looks like Jax has begun to right himself after some crazy stuff earlier in the season. Now, if they can get Lopez looking good again, with the improvement of Moran, thus pen can be legitimately 6 deep with room to add and roll through the St Paul candidates. But like Stewart, they've gotten some really good work from De Leon as of late. Could he ALSO provide a big lift? Has his own injury filled and disappointing career suddenly trandlsformed in the Twins pen? I trust him less than Stewart right now, but he's looked pretty solid so far.

I really don't understand what the Twins are doing with Balazovic. He's healthy and looking much more like the top rotation arm he used to look like. So now they want him in the pen? I can't imagine why they'd make this call this early, but OK. Let him cut loose and be a potential weapon for 2 innings. What's with the 3 IP idea? Long relief? Don't they have other guys to slide in to the long spot and rotate through as necessary? Seems like a waste if Balazovic's arm. Start him and groom him or make him a 1-2 IP weapon. Very happy to see both Celestino and Martin on rehab assignment. I was befining to wonder if either was going to play this year, and would we see them in July if at all? Each still gets over half a season to get their work in. That's potentially huge for both.