DocBauer

A little worried about Helman as well as Prato. But being a late bloomer and missing half the year hopefully makes him self. Good/versatile role players are valuable. Think Kiersey is safe with only about a month or so of AAA. Only thing that surprises is no surprises, I guess. Seems like every year there's at.least one arm that makes you go "hmm" but not this year.

What none of us knows is what the organization thinks about him. I mean, did he figure something out at AAA to indicate his finish to the season is for real? If so, whatever he's figured out gives more value to him within the organization now, and going forward, than he had the bulk of 2023. Why would anybody want him? He's a former top prospect, LH bat with power and a good arm in the OF. He's struggled some, to be sure. But he's also flashed, often before becoming injured, (twice but each different), or sick, which happened last year, IIRC. There's virtually nothing on the FA market to match him, so why not a young-ish, inexpensive, former 1st rounder and top prospect that might be ready to bloom with regular playing time? There is no logjam of corner OF at the moment. The Twins might want to hold on to Larnach for depth, and a belief that maybe the last half of 2023 offered real encouragement going forward. But he could also be a potential steal as part of a package for a team looking for LH power. Not close to midnight yet. Don't think the sun has even set.

Not saying I want either of them moved, but Polanco would seem to be the more valuable overall, and is the more readily replaceable of the two. Larnach has stepped forward as hoped yet, Martin is more of a natural top of the order hitter, we really have no clue at this point what Gordon is/might be, and most everyone else is going to be at AA or lower. So I don't see moving Kepler unless a crazy offer is made. But speaking of Larnach, if the LH OF situation is as bad as it appears, does his value as part of a package suddenly jump?

As per the OP, NOT advocating cost cutting is a good thing, BUT, who might benefit as a result? Yes to both Martin and Severino, but I think Martin in closer to being ready. Martin began to hit and perform at the end of 2022 and had a real breakthrough in the AFL. Just under 4 months of playing time in 2023 is not what Martin needed, but he did great. Low K rate, high BB rate, a little more power than previously shown, has me feeling confident he can/will hit at the ML level, though how good early is to be seen. Severino is sort of the opposite. He's always going to K a lot, but he also takes enough BB to have a .350 OB% so far. And he makes enough bat to ball contact, with his power, to actually HIT, which is something Sabato can't do, for instance. Both only 24yo. Camargo I have a good feeling about. Probably never hit better than .240 ish, and and OB in the .290-.310 area, but good defense and good power. Also, I believe, only 24yo. But Miranda, despite not being a rookie, is still a young player looking for opportunity and it will probably present itself. I'm still on the Helman bandwagon. He's a 7 position player with speed and power, a RH version of Castro. He's a late developer who checks off every box but one: opportunity. Kerisey is a little older, LH version of Martin. I'm betting he's not ready until he gets a couple more months in at AAA, but he's interesting as a 4th OF, quasi platoon piece. If Farmer is gone, does that open up a spot for Prato to join in competition for a role along with Helman? Again, can hit, get OB, run some, has some pop, and can play everywhere. BTW, how come nobody mentioned Lee? Top prospect or not, a lower payroll means sooner opportunity.

Switch hitter, though better from the left side, who is a quality bat to ball hitter for AVG, contact, solid OB%, and 30 double 20HR power. Sound like Polanco? It is. But it would also describe Brooks Lee. And that's why Polanco...who remains controllable for 2 more years...might be traded. I don't bieve the Twins WANT to trade Polanco. But he's got good value. And while Lee might not be quite ready yet, he's pretty close. And in the meantime, Julien and Farmer could provide a quality quasi platoon at 2B, along with Castro, and Farmer can also be a valuable utility INF, along with Castro. Moving Polanco also frees up $10M to use at 1B, or a RH OF, or whatever SP is eventually signed or traded for. Not saying it's going to happen, but he's a pretty obvious candidate to be in demand, possibly moved, doesn't really weaken the lineup with his absence considering the alternative options, and may help strengthen another area of the club. I don't see any way Kepler gets moved without hurting the club. I'm banking on 4 months of the "new and improved" Kepler isn't a SSS or mirage. But if he's moved, who takes his spot? Acquiring a replacement via FA or trade replaces him, it doesn't ADD to the team. And I don't see a ready made replacement in the system unless Larnach takes a big step forward, as Rodriguez, Rosario, and others are too far away yet.

Despite the high K numbers, he's hit a very consistent .270-.280 at his various steps. It's been pointed out that his BABIP has been a bit high, and yet, it's generally been maintained. I'd suggest that's largely because he hits the ball HARD, and seems to hit roughly the same from both sides of the plate. So while he may not walk as much as would be liked, and may always K too much, he's also shown the ability to actually HIT the baseball. Compare that to someone like Sabato who walks a lot, but simply CAN'T HIT the ball. I thi k he's got a real shot, as long as the K rate doesn't rise further, and really, should come down some to be truly acceptable. Having reached AAA at 24yo, will those numbers now improve with experience and maturity? I can see him traded as part of a deal for an arm. I can also see him continuing to play some 2B/3B for versatility, but mostly 1B for St Paul and being possibly ready mid season, if not earlier, to be one of the first "next man up" recalls. Another team might really like his potential in a deal. But it would be nice to hold on to him as well.

For a couple $M to play against LHP and be a late game sub, OK. I'm out otherwise. Little power, not much in the way of SB, I'd rather have Taylor back...probably healthier this year...even with some regression.

Priorities for the Twins to get ready for 2024: 1] Quality SP, preferably controlled and not a 1yr, to "replace" Gray, as it were. 2A] A CF option as protection for Buxton either not being able to play, or very limited. Hard to trust Castro or a group of rookies with that task. 2B] Add a quality RH bat for a corner OF or 1B spot. Like to be greedy and have someone who could do both, but that's probably wishful thinking. Nice to have that RH bat and possible coverage for Kirilloff just in case issues with his health remain. 3] Even with the possibility of Varland going to the pen, and the hope of Canterino commanding a spot in the near future, the pen could really use Pagan back...can't believe I just typed that...or similar. I don't know how #1 gets done at this point other than trade, or a hopeful return to previous form of someone like Giolito, or just "settling" for a solid #3 arm. But whoever they get will still cost $ on the budget. I don't care what RH bat they get, OF or 1B, and it makes sense. But doesn't CF have to come first? Does a team that wants to win their division and make noise in the playoffs just trust CF to a collection of rookies? I like the idea of someone like Turner as that 1B option as he can also cover 2B/3B a couple times a month. But how much can you afford when you have to move on from Farmer just to get $30M to spend and reach a payroll of $140M? Probably going to have to trust some non roster arms for pen help...in addition to what's already on hand...and hope for another Stewart. This is going to be hard.

A $140M payroll allows about $23M to add to the roster. Farmer gone pushes that number to $30M. The Twins have yet to sign a FA for $20M+ and for more than a couple of years. Not saying they won't, and haven't tried a couple of times, but unless the payroll stays at $155M...or goes up...through some unknown expectation, it's not going to be this year. That leaves some sort of trade...and that player will still have some $ cost...or a lesser FA like Wacca, Giolito, etc. That allows some yet to be determined amount to add SOMEONE. Is that a 1B? A RH OF? A CF option to hedge against Buxton and not turn the spot over to a potential rookie audition? I get the love for Castro, and I like him too. He's depth in the OF AND the INF. But I don't think he's a full time CF, or even 50/50 share time CF. He's a good backup and fill in there. Not tryibg to be a downer, but the idea of adding some big, powerful bat or mega $20M plus arm is just very, very doubtful for 2024. Could a bat fall in to our lap late in FA the way Cruz did? Absolutely. And that would have the Twins rethinking their approach for sure. But right now it's SP first priority, and then a CF or other spot bat that's affordable and can fit a need.

He's actually a very good fit. He's still an excellent hitter with power. He covers 1B if/when AK is out, or at least platoons there with him. He can also split his time between DH and the occasional 2B/3B game. And in reality, just like you need more than 5 starters over the course of a season, you certainly play more than 13 position players. So you can make him fit in that way as well. (Buxton alone, unfortunately, will be on the IL 40-60 ganes). But how do you afford to sign him? If the payroll is $140M-ish, and stands at $117M at the moment, thats about $23M to add to the roster, and you still need to add a rotation arm first and foremost. Even if you trade for one, there is a financial cost involved. Then, you need a reliable alternative for CF, unless you are just going to trust it to Helman, Martin, or Kiersey right off the bat as the #2 guy. I suppose Farmer could be gone, and that's another $6M to put in to the pot. But I don't see how there's room to add Turner after you take care of the other 2 priorities. So then what? We remove a good, important bat like Polanco to add another one? I'd call that a wash, not an improvement. I like the Turner add a lot. I just don't see a financial fit unless some things break just right.

I've been thinking about this part of the conversation all day. And I have a thought, but first, I have to repeat the basic math I posted earlier: If we consider the approximation of 52% of income is spent on payroll as generally accurate, losing $55M from Bally means a loss of $28M from the $155M payroll of 2023. Now, WHATEVER new TV/streaming type of deal/deals they come up with, should be anywhere from $25M to $35M. I think that's feasible. So let's split the difference and say they come up with a total of $30M via HOWEVER/WHATEVER they come up with. Based on the 52% principle, they get back $15M back. Simple math says they would "lose" $13M. Now, IMO, that isn't and shouldn't be devastating. (Especially for a team coming off an exciting season that shouldn't be cutting, but that's a different discussion at the moment). So, in theory, that leaves a $140-142M payroll to work with, which is in keeping with the numbers Falvey stated. SO, with NOTHING set in stone yet, no deal inked yet, Falvey publicly speaks about worst case scenario. Why do so this early? Because it not only buffers public perception early, BUT, when a deal/deals come to fruition, and the payroll "only" dips to $140-142M ish, suddenly the FO looks almost like heroes as they STILL had $ to work with as today they sit around $117M with a playback of 2023 as the roster stands today. So that's approximately $23M to spend, BEFORE, Farmer or Polanco or anyone was moved to free up any additional dollars. Any move of such opens up another $6-10M to work with. That's more $ for FA, or even open up payroll for a trade acquisition, PLUS additional FA possibilities. NOTHING that is earth shattering, but WAY better perception and reality of $125M. So while I will lead the stampede that says ownership should be stepping forward to AT LEAST keep payroll the same, if not add at least a little bit, based on opportunity and open window, I'm just wondering if the comments made were to just set a floor for public opinion that will change the emotional and intellectual perspective when it turns out they will actually cut much less than expected, OR, a SUDDEN announcement that ownership will keep payroll the same. I'm just NOT a conspiracy guy. And I don't think there is some secret agenda here. I'm just wondering if this might have been a "get in front of it" scenario and prepare people for the worst while we're still trying to figure out how to make this work for the better???

Honestly, this is about what I thought/wanted even before the news of a possible/probably payroll cut. My exceptions were that I really wanted to go bigger than Giolito with Nola, Gray, Wheeler, or Rodriguez. I like Kiermaier in CF, even though he's LH. I had some hope for a solid $5-6M arm for the pen to hedge on Stewart and Alcala in particular, but with Varland there....(not 100% convinced he's going there this soon)...said arm might be unnecessary. Would be great to add a solid, not overly expensive corner OF who bats RH, but there's no room unless you just allow/assume someone is always hurt and on the IL so you're rotating guys in and out.

Lee would be of great interest. Third time's the charm, right? But if the Twins had $14M to spend, they would look to a rotation arm first, IMO, though it will probably come via trade. And would they then want to add Lee at $14M as a second major addition while they still have Buxton, (in at least a hopeful part time role), and Martin SEEMINGLY ready? Or would they want to go with a less expensive 1yr option? Merrifield hasn't been good in 2yrs, IMO. Not sure I'm expecting a turn around in 2024. Absolutely love the idea of Turner or Santana and 1yr deal for something relatively inexpensive. ($12M ???) Both provide a veteran presence and help at 1B with Kirilloff. Turner could probably handle 3B here and there. But roster construction wise, what's more important, a 1B/DH RH bat or a corner OF? Not sure there's room for both. A healthy Brantley is a nice ballplayer. And he's probably got some life left. At least one good season I'd wager. But where does he play? We don't want or necessarily need a full time DH unless he's pretty special, and we don't need another LH corner OF since we already have two there. Just not sure I see any fits here. Turner or Santana on the cheap for 1yr. MAYBE Merrifield on a 1yr for depth and options if Polanco was moved. That's about it.

Of these 3, Lopez is the only one who I'm interested in. Velocity and pure stuff are there if the Twins can just harness it a bit more. Not interested in Fujinami unless he comes really cheap. I mean, his "getting better" as the season went along was still bad.

A lot to unpack here, but oh well. 1] If you subscribe to the theory that ownership is cheap, there is nothing I or anyone else, can say to convince you otherwise. If paying all milb players and coaches and all team personnel through covid, laying no one off, keeping payroll at almost exactly 17%...which is right about their rank as a market...and raising payroll for just about every season since this FO took over doesn't convince you to at least re-consider your opinion, then we are just going to disagree and call it a day. 2] If we want to discuss any sort or natural or expected regression in payroll based on the past few years, I'm going to either disagree with you, or state you might be saying the right thing for the wrong reasons. For instance, if a group of FA heading out the door, a bunch of payroll coming off the books, and another group of prospects about ready for a job in 2024 simply lowers the payroll floor in a natural way, we are in agreement. That's what happened/is happening. But that also brings us to #3.... 3] We can, have, and probably will, debate about the FO/ownership being prepared to see a pending issue with the end of the Bally deal. Knowing it was going to happen has given them opportunity for some time to look at other options. However, that doesn't mean those options are necessarily lined up and ready to go at this point. It still takes that 2nd or 3rd party to sign on with the Twins. To our collective knowledge, I would think, we are unaware that any sort of agreement is pending. If you don't see a trend across the country of people cutting the cord and cable TV, as we've known it, changing or going away, you aren't paying attention. I work for a telecommunications company in the Midwest and I can assure you things are changing rapidly. So the $55M being lost by the end of the Bally deal is real money. The money doesn't just magically appear from someone else when that contract expired. The issue, IMO, is not how prepared the Twins are or aren't, it's about the deal...with whoever...when the dust settles. It would be very doubtful the Twins suddenly find another $55M deal on their doorstep tomorrow. I would think something as low as $25M is possible, but it could be as high as $35M, either in A solo deal, or perhaps a combination of broadcast and streaming. For the sake of argument, let's split the difference and call it $30M. The generally accepted amount of income to be used for payroll is 52%, give or take a little. That's $28M the Twins just lost. Now, 52% of $30M is approximately $15M, to partially replace what was lost. That's $13M NET lost, which might lower payroll from the $155M spend in 2023, but isn't enough to doom the team, OR account for some low end $120M payroll. If it does, someone in charge of the Twins should be fired for not finding a better option for broadcast agreements and revenue streams to offset losses and grow the financial structure of the organization. 4] If the Twins drop the payroll to, oh, IDK, $135-140M but find a solid arm, grab a CF option to help cover there, maybe a decent RH bat and win 88-92 games because they still have a lot of talent, and young talent, growing and developing I couldn't care less about the actual payroll. And I'm just not going to freak out, today, November 7th, until I see how things play out. 5] I'm also in the camp that says holding on to the prospects is generally more important as payroll drops, even if it's just a year or two. I'm not saying DON'T trade. I'm just saying a young player or arm might be trusted a little sooner than initial plans might have been laid for. I do think one of Polanco or Farmer might have to go. But there are options to help replace them. Kepler would be much harder to find a replacement for as there isn't a ready made one at this time, so I think he stays. Might see Martin, Lee, and guys like Prato earlier than initially anticipated. That's not necessarily a bad or debilitating thing. Going to be a very, very interesting offseason.

Sorry, not sure I understand the form, as I've never used it previously, and don't have time to investigate at the moment. But I heard so much last season the Mariners need offense, were short from the left side, and have a hole at 2B they'd like to fill. And now they've potentially lost Teoscar Hernandez to FA. So I keep wondering about Polanco and Larnch and maybe a lower level prospect like Urbina for one of Logan Gilbert or George Kirby. The Twins lose a hell of a player in Polanco, still inexpensive the next 2yrs, they lose depth and potential in Larnach who might just need opportunity and a change of scenery, and a top international signing who has talent but hasn't put it together yet. Seattle gets offense, potential future offense, and reportedly has some pitching depth to be able to withstand losing a solid young starter. Fair?

Couldn't be more pleased with Rosario. He started a little slow, and has really come on strong. He's hitting, hitting with power, won the HR derby, as a 21yo coming from A+ ball. It's always been my understanding that very few A level players go to the AFL, but I could be wrong there. Despite his penchant for K's...which need to be curbed...he also walks a lot, maintaining a high OB %. You can live with the K's with that power and a good number of walks, as long as he isn't Mendoza line with the AVG like a Gallo. It's my understanding he's a little rough defensively, with a solid arm, and hope is he can round in to a generally solid defender. Kind of hard to not be excited about Wallner, Martin getting very close, Rosario and Rodriguez at AA, and Jenkins hopefully hot on their heals. I don't know what to make of Carr. He's already 26yo and barely pitched at AA, though he was good for Cedar Rapids. He doesn't appear to be a SO type arm, but seems to keep hitters in check. I have to believe he's being looked at as a LH pen arm who can go a couple innings at a time. But I'm not sure there's much more there. Pretty disappointed in the other arms. None of them are top prospects, but I think there's at least some solid pen possibilities there, but they sure don't look like it in the AFL. A couple jumped in from A ball, so maybe this is really just a challenge, and a learning situation for them Cossetti has been a huge disappointment. I don't think his AFL diminishes his season at all. Maybe he's getting worn down? I think he's really there to work on his defense. I just hoped/expected more.

So yeah, if we only look at the last 3 years, not very good. I would have liked to look further back for a longer, and I think, more accurate picture. I think the grade for 2023 is too low though. Having Correa back was huge, IMO, from defense, to leadership, to a change in perception of the organization as a whole. Solano was a tremendous value, despite a somewhat limited OPS. He was streaky at times, but generally sound and had some big moments. And I still like Vazquez, despite the unexpectedly poor offense. His game calling and defense were still intact, and that's the most important part of why he was brought in. So I'm a solid B for 2023 and a rebound from Vazquez probably raises the grade going forward. I have faith in a big 2024 season from Correa as long as the plantar issue is resolved over the winter.

Wow! Just.....wow!

Explain what exactly? The guy had a poor 2022. In 2019, '20, and '21 he was a top of the rotation starter and got Cy Young votes. He stunk in 2022. Through 21 starts for a bad Chicago team in 2023 he was throwing well, just not quite as good as that previous 3 year stretch. But because he had a poor 2022 and a bad 2 months to end 2023 going through a breakup and being moved twice in 30 days means he can't bounce back at 29yo to be the guy he was in 19/20/21/most of 23? Is that the point?

I was actually surprised a couple weeks ago when I looked up his 2023 numbers. While he wasn't having any sort of career season, all of his numbers were actually quite good while in Chicago. I had been under the misguided assumption his whole season had been a disaster. Nope. In 21 starts, 121 IP, he had a .379 ERA and 4.43 FIP, and 118 ERA+ with 9.7 K per 9 and a 1.223 WHIP. Had he continued on his 2023 path, and not been traded, I think we'd be hearing a lot of talk about how great he rebounded from a bad 2021 and who was going to give him a 4 or 5 year deal. Instead, we're debating about him as a surprise/steal signing. If his head is screwed on straight and the Twins see what there is to fix, and believe they have a real plan to get him back to his "normal" self, I'm on board with this idea. I'd just like to have a 2nd year option if things go well.

Great idea. And maybe I'm jumping the gun here. But I keep thinking about FA, and 2023, and I wonder about trade options for the Twins as I just don't think they will do a 5yr $125M deal, but I sure wish they would. MY OPINION, the market says the Twins have some bats to move, and some arms other teams like down the line. I wouldn't move Rodriguez unless I had a STUD or potential such for 3yrs. Petty bought Gray for 2! I keep thinking Polanco and Larnach for a Lopez kind of deal. Polanco is only 30yo and a STUD when healthy. Larnach still has ability and potential and that "when he gets here" possibly. Why do I keep thinking Seattle might be the best place to look?

11th round pick in 2018. Missed 2020, like most prospects. Had a couple small dings, but no major injuries that I can recall. While he didn't set the world on fire, I recall an article or interview about him a year or so ago...maybe by Seth?...where the hitting coach at Cedar Rapids, and I can't recall who that was...worked with him and he started to bloom in 2021. After a couple poor years, things started to click. His AVG wasn't great, but the OB was OK, and SLG started, with 21 Dbls and 19 HR, and the speed was there with 21/5 in attempts. 2022 was when he really began to blossom. He was better at AA, as you would expect, but spent about 2/3 of that season at AAA St Paul. His combined quad slash line for 2022 was .258/ .337/ .432/ .769. He had 46 XBH and he stole 40 bases out of 45 attempts. That caught the attention of the FO, which is why he wasn't added to the 40 man, but was invited to ST. Yes, I'm a fan and follower of this kid, lol. But I am for obvious reasons. You never know when the next good player in your system comes from. Unfortunately, Helman had a bad hamstring from day 1 in ST. So he had no shot to make the roster. THEN, when healthy and ready to go, he had a concussion that sat him out. THEN, he dislocated a shoulder. Even still, his AAA numbers, barely marginalized by a few lower level rehab games, has him at .302/ .358/ .544/ .911 combined between all levels, mostly at AAA. 20 XBH and 8 and 1 in SB in a total of 149 AB. To some degree or another, he can and has played ALL 7 positions besides catcher. (Believe he was a SS in college). He shows hit and OB and pop/power ability and SB and XB ability. Had he been healthy in 2023, I maintain my opinion he would have debuted with the Twins at some point and Luplow would have never been claimed because Helman would have been there already. DON'T mistake some fandom and belief in a kid for any kind of greatness. Helman only fits in to the CF equation due to depth since he can be solid anywhere. Basically, he's a RH version of Castro, which is pretty outstanding. And if Helman can be as good as Castro as super utility player, the Twins 12th and 13th spots are pretty well set going forward. Next, we should talk about Keirsey and Prato about some great and versatile depth going forward, right?

Kiermaier for CF based on early reports and "things that make sense". He's still a very good defensive OF, as good as Buxton, MAYBE a hair better than Taylor, though debatable. Rocco is familiar with Kiermaier, and he's probably a better "hitter" than Taylor. I'm fine with either player as a short term to back up Buxton HOPEFULLY healthy enough for 60-80 games and another couple dozen as a DH. But there's enough talent in the system that I don't see any way the Twins pay $20M+ for Bellinger. And $20M would go to a SP anyway. But you CAN'T approach 2024 just hoping Buxton is going to be great. You need another quality option, and either of these guys provide it. Castro can fill in, but is better used in his utility role, and Martin has made me a believer after his strong finish in '22, his strong AFL following, and a great '23. But let's give him a little time to settle in, shall we? I know there's a lot of doubters out there when I say this, but there's a couple potential darkhorses in the system that could really surprise in 2024. Helman was invited to ST last year, but was hurt. Spent half his season hurt from an initial hamstring in ST, to a concussion, and then a dislocated shoulder. But after his breakthrough 2022, he had a shot to help the Twins this past season. And his projected 2023 numbers, when healthy again, were as good or better. He's a RH Castro. And Keirsey is so under the radar as another late bloomer it's almost sad. He should have been at AAA earlier than he was, still has a lot to prove, but he's considered a legitimate CF defensively who can run, and has finally overcome some early injuries, like Helman, that he MIGHT be a mid season 4th OF who could fill in and be a semi-platoon CF with Martin if Buxton is hurt, and things wash out. I'm NOT bragging up these guys. They have to prove themselves still. But there is at least some potential there instead of running out a Refsnyder or Celestino there on an emergency basis. After that, the Twins could be looking to add a RH bat who is OK against RH pitching, but can rake against LH arms. Personally, I like Hunter Renfro for about 350-400 AB to cover both OF corners. He was pretty solid with the Angels, stunk after his DFA, but might be a perfect fit as a quasi full time RH bat off the bench that should come in around $8M I'd think. And there are different directions to go, of course. The Twins could invest in an even better OF if Kepler was moved. They could offer Rhys Hoskins a pretty big payday at 1B. And he's a nice rebound player. But the Twins are stuck in a weird but awkward place where there is so much talent and depth in place you don't want to REPLACE anyone, but you don't want to ignore possible upgrades as well. #1 Priority is a SP arm. And we can debate all day long about what that means and how to obtain it. But $ needs to be spent here in some capacity. Along with, possibly, trade capital as well. Where do the Twins spend $ other than a SP? #2 Priority is CF...unless you want to just turn it over to the kids and run with it and see what happens. Unless it's Kiemaier or Taylor, it's a waste and run with the kids. But I'd rather have the veteran for now. #3 Maybe, for the 1st time in a couple of years of need, they finally spend $5M or so on a solid RH OF who can make life miserable against LH arms and be OK against RH ones. Maybe they spend a bit more. And there are options. But MAYBE, they ONLY focus on the 1st TWO priorities and just open up competition for Martin, Helman, Williams, and some cheap milb signings. But yes, there IS some $ to be spent. If at all possible, to augment the roster and "tweak it". OMG...must have had a worse day at work than I thought. LOL. Even for ME this was a too long answer. LOL

Ervin Santana remains the largest, single contract ever handed out by the Twins at 4yrs and somewhere in the $40-45M range, as stated above. The current FO largest FA deal, I believe, remains Michael Pineda, signed on a "get well" deal with time and money following his rehab season. Something they might still consider for Mahle, and very much similar to what they've done with Paddack. They like to aquire rotation talent via trade; Maeda, Gray, Mahle, Lopez, Paddack, for promise, potential, and no albatross contract. They also like to develop young arms from within; Ober and Varland being the first real options there, though others have auditioned. Or a combination of trade and youth like Ryan. And I have a hard time arguing with most of their results and their payroll. So far, larger deals have been made for Donaldson, Cruz (though it wasn't a HUGE deal or long), and Correa. BUT, in 2018 and 2020 they took a serious shot at Darvish and Wheeler. IIRC, Darvish was 4yrs and around $20M, but they never got too far on Wheeler as he made his intentions to stay on the east coast quite clear very early, so what they were willing to offer is open to debate. They've been linked to a handful of other FA arms in the past, but again, where any interest and potential offers that might have been offered is up to conjecture. I DON'T think they would pass on a large FA contract if it made sense. IF we accept the proposed speculation of Rodriguez for around $19M-ish per, I don't think they would balk at that number. And they've been tied to him before, so they obviously like him, and probably see him perhaps raising his game a bit with their tutelage. Where they have issues, is not just $ per season, but the length of a deal. Their sweet spot is 3 and 4 years. They don't trust a 5 year deal or more, believing the total return won't equal the investment. And I'm not debating that, just stating facts. The whole "ownership is cheap" mantra is, or should be dismissed. The payroll has, generally, raised every year the current FO has been in charge. And they have pretty much ranked 17th in all of MLB just about every single year. Which is in keeping with general market size and proported revenue. There are tendencies for players, coaches/managers/ and FO/ownership in sports. The Twins have NOT cut spending in some time. And I don't believe they want to this offseason either. This team/organization is in great shape, and right about where you'd want it. Even if they kept payroll the same in 2024 as in 2023, they'd still have room to play with. And while I agree with other posters that the lack of a TV deal in place for next season, and beyond, comes as no surprise and the Twins have surely been working on this for some time now...the truth is, it's still a complete unknown unless there is something around the corner already agreed on that nobody knows about. I'm not saying the Twins ARE going to cut payroll. I remain 50% hopeful they've been planning ahead enough and are willing to "go above" their comfort level enough to keep status quo for now, and 50% they might cut at least a little. Hell, I might even be 60/40. So it's NOT poor speculation to think they might surprise us. Especially when so much of the total roster is young and under control. In the MLB fantasy world, I'm not unconvinced that my #1 option wouldn't be Nola. But since we are talking LH options, Snell scares me. He's produced OK but not great for his career save 2 outstanding seasons. But those 2 Cy Young type of seasons will drive up his market. I like Rodriguez better than Montgomery. I like a higher K rate and "getting it done" for a longer career, despite being slightly younger. And I can just see the Twins salivating over re-working his slider in to a sweeper, lowering his sinker, etc, and him taking a step forward. At 31yo, if he could be signed for 4-5yrs at an AVERAGE of $20-21M per, I'm not so sure the Twins wouldn't jump. You get him for 3-4 prime years, and could front load some of the deal while most of the lineup is still inexpensive. It's probably, unfortunately...no insult to the players themselves...going to be Maeda back, or a 2yr deal to Giolito on a rebound deal, maybe with incentives. But it's at least 50/50 the next rotation arm comes in some sort of trade. I do think a lot of people are under valuing Varland. A lot! But I absolutely want the Twins to go to camp with at least 6 SP.