DocBauer

I had to work so didn't get to see the game, though I intend to watch the abridged replay version on the MLB app later. So at this point, comments are based on a couple hilights seen, the box score, and the OP. But here goes: 1] I'm not worried about P Lopez at this point. Even the best SP have some bad days. Witness Bassit today. He was better his last turn and didn't get the win, but did today without having his best stuff. I think he's going to be just fine. 2] I don't want to come across as a misguided optimist, but we've seen how good and J Lopez can be, including times this season. When a RP has a bad game or bad stretch, those moments/times have greater magnification than anyone else on the roster. Neither is some 34yo pen arm hanging on by a thread. They have the stuff. It's up to the Twins to get them back on track and help them regain their confidence ASAP. They accomplish that, Thielbar back in a couple of weeks, Duran being Duran, Moran looking better and better, and Stewart looking like the real deal, this pen suddenly looks very different. 3] Tremendous day at the plate for Wallner and Julien. These two have that kind of ability, though ultimately, Julien will probably be the much more consistent hitter, wile Wallner might always be more Gallo-ike, which isn't a bad thing. Remember, despite being buried on the early season depth chart, Wallner had a monster of a 2022 while earning the Twins milb hitter of the year. Many seasons previously, he would have broke camp with the Twins. There will be some bad days/stretches for both of them, and Lewis when he comes up, but they don't get better, develop and improve, without the opportunity to play. I know there are questions about Wallner's defense. And I don't want to make excuses for some bad plays. But he's actually pretty athletic, and runs well for a big guy. And his arm is special. From various things I've read before, RF in Target Field isn't always easy to play based on its configuration. So some of his issues, beyond just being a young player, might involve learning the intricacies of that spot. Not saying he's ever going to be above average defensively, but work and experience CAN provide polish. He's got the tools. Not saying I'm ready to dump Kepler for him at this point...especially if the improved bat Max has been showing this season maintains...but at a certain point, you not only need to provide opportunity for a top young prospect, but potentially better offense wins out over defense. 4] What has gotten in to Willi Castro? Some of us really liked his signing, even though we didn't trust his ST numbers. He seems to be a sort of handyman who doesn't excel in any area, but can do a little bit of all things. He was promoted too quickly by Detroit and never fully developed. And he just recently turned only 26yo. So far, he's played pretty solid defense wherever he's been placed, and hasn't completely embarrassed himself with a few innings in CF. He's stolen some bases, and has even shown the ability to bunt well, which is a lost art these days. Now, it's very possible he could turn back in to a pumpkin at the midnight stroke any day now. But just looking at his MLB reference page today, he's posted the following quad slash numbers as of late: LAST 30 GAMES: .284/ .346/ .514/ .860 LAST 15 GAMES: .320/ .346/ .580/ .926 LAST 7 GAMES: .360/ .407/ .680/ 1.087 Now, we're only talking 74 AB. And we are certainly talking about unprecedented numbers based on his career thus far. But we are also looking at a 30 game stretch, not just a week or two. So unless MLB has made a HUGE error in their postings, Castro has very quietly been very good the last 30 games. I am absolutely not saying the Twins "found" a young-ish late blooming surprise gem. Regression is going to hit. But so far, he's done everything asked of him as the 13th man that was ever supposed to make the roster, contributing offensively and defensively in a limited role. Remember when he was the "easy" roster removal to make room for someone else? Especially with Gordon out for some time, he might not be so easy to just dismiss.

I don't think demoted is the right term. He goes back to being what he was brought in to be, which is an excellent utility player across the infield. Lewis won't play every day at first, nor will Julien, and Correa...despite his outstanding defense...has played every game except some like a half dozen, so he needs some days off here and there as well, especially with his heel being tender. So Farmer is still going to play 2-3 days a week I think. The question remains, when Correa sits, does Farmer or Lewis play SS?

120%? Really, shouldn't he just give 100 and offer the rest up to charity. (old joke) Can't wait to see him with the Twins and becoming a fixture for the next 8-10yrs!

SWR is confounding to me. I was never as high on others, despite his previous status, as part of the Berrios trade. But I was willing to wait and see due to youth, early promotion for such a young player, and the whole Olympic experience which disrupted his development. He won me over after having a really good 2022. He really looked like he was on the precipice of being a solid ML starter who could help this year at some point. I don't know that his STUFF says anything more than a mid rotation starter, but he sure looked like he was ready to contribute and gain experience as a future rotation piece. Right now? Woof! What is going on? Salas and Rodriguez? A pair of great young prospects, especially Rodriguez, IMO. The previous FO was often admonished for not pushing prospects hard enough. I don't think that has been an issue for the current FO. And I recognized Ft Myers was going to be built by 2022 draftees and FCL promotions and a few holdovers. But I really questioned Miller, Salas, and Rodriguez being pushed to CR based on age, experience, and coming off injury in the case of Rodriguez. Now, CR is often a better hitting environment than Florida. I've often said, if you can hit in Florida, you can probably hit even better in CR. But we're talking about 19-20yo players in A+. There's still a lot of season to play, and a lot of time to adjust and finish strong. But I do wonder if the Twins might have been a little too aggressive in a few of their promotions. But again, talent rises, and there's a lot of season left.

A little late to comment on Enlow, but my initial thought about him is ; "Are we surprised?" Look, HS arms are the most impossible to truly project and HOPE they reach their potential. But he was a TOP college recruit and ML draft prospect who was signed for late 1st round $. He looked pretty good early. Then, like almost all milb players, he missed 2020. Then, he really flashed early in 2021, seemingly hitting his stride and starting to reach his ceiling before TJ. Coming back after surgery, and barely throwing for 2yrs, he was a mixed bag in 2022 of poor/average, then good, then tired and finished in the pen. So this season was 100% healthy, far removed from TJ, and ready to resume his career/potential. And credit to him, he's done that. But the arm and potential was always there. Which is why I ask if we're really surprised. Pleasantly surprised by Headrick's sudden surprise, even though he's not a finished product yet, and might still find himself in the pen eventually. Not surprised, but pleased, that a healthy Balazovic is looking very good, and resembling his former top 100 prospect self. Like ANY milb arm, he might assist the pen at some point, but I want him in the AAA rotation every 5th day to continue to build himself and continue to develop himself as a starter. I'm just not sure what to think about SWR, but he's young enough you still have hope for a turnaround. And there is a solid chance that Festa, AND Enlow moving up to St Paul around mid year. My point being Enlow, and a few others, are looking like potential depth the second half, and in 2024. And a year ago, I'm not sure we would have felt this good about the depth available. I'm not expecting Enlow to make a difference this year. And I sure hope good health will prevent him from being thrust in to a ML spot this year. But he's on track to be a possible option in the near future. And that's exciting.

Just as a matter of record, I wasn't really high on any of the 3 in the OP, though I kinda liked the Bell idea a bit. The guys I wanted...once Haniger was off the market/too expensive...were McCutchen or Mancini on a 1yr deal. In hindsight, signing none of them and trading for Taylor actually may have been the best move overall. That being said, any of these 3 could suddenly get untracked and provide solid production again. I think the Solano signing, while not spectacular, has been pretty smart, IMO. He wasn't signed with any hopes of cranking out 30HR, or even 20. He was brought in to hit a decent average, show some contact, and provide some OB ability on a cheap 1yr deal and provide some OK/solid defense at 2 or 3 spots. And while he's had a couple bad games, I'd say he's done exactly that. If everyone gets cranked up on the roster and stays healthy, there's actually a chance Solano doesn't finish the season with the Twins. But he remains a solid, inexpensive, and smart signing IMO.

While I think Lewis's full time position is yet to be determined, only injury rehab sends him back down, IMO. I just "trust" in his natural ability that he's not going to go through any massive, prolonged slumps that need a re-set of any sort. That being said, he will have bad days and bad stretches, like everyone does, and I hope we all give him some slack when he does.

Let's hope it's mils and they caught it quickly. Reat can help, and there are therapies to "loosen" the plantar ligament on the underside of the foot. There is also a rather painful shot than can speed up the process. I've had it. A bad case of it. I never got the shot. And I had it for over a year. Mark Maguire had a bad case several years ago, I believe with the Cardinals. Crossing my fingers!

I don't know what to expect from him, and I'm not going to get excited this early in his audition. But I watched his first appearance and the stuff looked good in that game. I mean, right now, Alacala out Thielbar out, Jax unable to find himself the past week or so, (he really hasn't been as bad as most of his numbers look), and Pagan STILL on the roster, there is an opportunity for him to audition and prove himself. Just like Stewart, he wouldn't be the first 30 ish former top prospect who has had injury issues, and suddenly feels comfortable in a pen role for just an inning or two. He's got a shot, because he's always had a pretty good arm when actually healthy. Side note: I know we might need him as a rotation fill-in at some point, but I'd really like to see Headrick up to help the pen from the port side with Thielbar out.

Kind of a ho-hum average week across the system, with a mix of good and bad performances. Some random thoughts: St Paul is not having as good of a season as I had expected. Feels to me like the pitching just hasn't been as strong, or at least as consistent, as I expected. I'm starting to become a believer in Headrick and his last start was great. I think we should be talking more than we are about how good Balazovic has looked, just needs to curb the BB a but and keep stretching out. SWR has been really disappointing so far. How great is it to see Lewis looking healthy and good?! Conversely, Wichita has a better season going than I initially expected. Feels like they're being lead by a nice nucleus of Lee, Severino, Keirsey, the surprising Fajardo, Enlow, and Festa despite his poor last start. Seems as though they are playing well as a team, which is nice to see. Definitely a few guys looking for promotions mid year. I was honestly surprised at CR's record. It's better than I had realized after they seemed to get off to such a slow start. Tons of young talent there and some guys struggling, but a lot to watch and follow. Not sure, right now, that there's a lot of guys pushing for promotion just yet. Might make it harder for a few Ft Myers guys to move up. But it's a long season and just so much talent sitting there. Not really surprised Ft Myers is doing well, overall, despite them supposedly starting the year with a dearth of top 30 talent. But when your roster is built primary by 2022 draft choices and young FCL grads, I think that's to be expected. But we've seen some very nice pitching performances that offer a lot of hope. But then again, you kind of hope/expect the college kids to do well at this level. There's been some good stuff coming out of Florida for sure. Really didn't know what to expect from Cossetti, but boy has he looked impressive! If his catching skills are, or will be with development, close to his early bat potential shown, might have a real steal on him.

Here is the #1, 2, and 3, and 4 problem with the pen, in reverse order. When the offense has been as confounding/frustrating, it makes every single BP run magnified that much more. An injury to Thielbar is pretty aweful.and Jax not being Jax is a poor and unexpected development. Some very poor luck has lead to bad performance. I think he's pressing and has lost either confidence, or has just the vision of his stuff and what he can do. Thielbar healthy in a couple weeks, and Jax finding his previous self, maybe a different mix of his pitches, suddenly things don't look so bad. We've seen what Jax can do. I don't doubt his mental strength, or his stuff. But it's up to him and the pitching coaches to get his head and stuff straight. And if they do, the top 4 is fine again. Then you have Moran settling down and looking better. Then add Stewart. Just being honest and real, a better Moran...which he's starting to look like lately...Thielbar back, and Stewart, this pen is potentially 6 deep. The FO should have NEVER brought Pagan back. And for some crazy reason that none of of us understand, they did. And they could have taken his $3.5M with a little more and taken a SHOT for a FA that frankly, couldn't have been worse. I understood believing in Alcala, but why not hedge your bets? So there is a real chance that Jax gets himself right, Moran keeps getting better and better, and Stewart is a real find. With Thielbar back in a couple of weeks, and Pagan HOPEFULLY FINALLY GONE, this pen actually looks pretty good. It does start with Jax finding himself again, but doesn't just end with him. But if the staff and Jax himself can figure out what's been going wrong other than some bad luck and maybe trying too hard to compensate, or pressing, or a bad pitch mix, the entire BP situation changes. We've seen what he can do. As to the OP: 1] I liked the Ortega add. I don't care about age for a BP arm. Sometimes a pitcher converts later in their career and finds a role. And he might surprise, but I'm just not expecting anything at this point other than another AAAA arm. But he surprises me as the #1 choice as he's already behind Stewart and maybe even De Leon who is "questionable" despite an OK debut. But I'm open to a live arm that might surprise. And maybe he does. 2] Balazovic. Why in hell wouldn't you keep him stretched out? I understand the Cardinals and Rays and other teams that would allow a potential SP to make their debut in the pen to get acclimated to the ML level. Makes complete sense to me. His stuff might just be too good to be the 8th man in the pen. But it's an opportunity to shine and help the club and I'm all in. But deliberately setting him up for 3-4 IP, as the FO has stated they might be doing, is WRONG. Just keep stretching him out and bring him up as needed. IF you bring him up, with his stuff, does he have to be the 8th man long arm? That might be a waste of opportunity. 3] We just might need both Balazovic AND Headrick before the year is done in the rotation. But just like Balazovic, the parent club is more important. Headrick CAN be the 8th man, long man, but does he have to be? IMO, he's flashed enough so far I would have had him up when Thielbar got hurt to add a LHRP arm to the pen to work with Moran. 4] SWR never appealed to me until he got a real chance to impress in 2022. And then I bought in. But so far, this year, I'm starting to wonder where all they hype has been. He's still very young. And I get that. And I'd leave him in the rotation for now with ZERO idea of adding him to the mix. He's going to sink or swim at some point. But he's not ready for MLB at this point. 5] I've always thought Laweryson should be a great middle man along with someone like Headrick or Funderburk. He's been having a quietly good AAA season. Always thought you should build a top 7 in your pen, ideally, with a STRONG first 5...4 RH and 2 LH...and one spot you can rotate for prospect arms to contribute and become acclimated. 6] I think there's a good chance a healthy Henriquez helps the second half. He's destined for the pen. The Twins pen isn't desperate if Jax gets right and Thielbar comes back soon. But there are a couple of options that could potentially help, no doubt. But i wouldnt want to stick Headrick and Balazovic in the pen full time right now. But if either or both could help 2023 in the short term, I'm all in.

First off, I also agree the FO doesn't listen to their fans, generally speaking, nor should they. They are, generally speaking, lol, way more plugged in knowledgeable than we fans are. I do think they listen once in a while when it comes to keeping or bringing back popular players, but only if they fit, and then, they only hear whispers that shouldn't really affect their decisions. They need to build the best team they can, PERIOD. I both agree and disagree with the OP's sentiment on Lewis. On the one hand, I've felt all along...even with wanting the Twins to WIN...I've been on record that with regard to Lewis, Kirilloff, and Balazovic...that I'm more concerned about their recoveries and the long game of their careers and their performance and contributions to the Twins future. In each case, I've been fine if the Twins really felt each, or all, needed to wait until July or August for any promotion. I want them healthy, confident, and ready to go. On the other hand, Kirilloff has proven himself at every milb level, and the ML level in his brief time of good health. Lewis flashed, slipped a little due to rapid promotion and a few small, nagging but dismissive injuries. Fully healthy, everything "clicked" when he went to the AFL a few years ago. His limited AAA time in 2022, after recovery, was fantastic. While his ML time last year was SSS, he sure proved that he belongs. (Though the OB was pretty small). I do expect him to be brought up June 1st when his rehab and 60 day stint is over. And I'm OK with that, and wait with eager anticipation for him! And I'm fine with him concentrating on SS/3B for now. Even as confident as Lewis is, nothing wrong with him just being "comfortable" playing in the dirt for now. OF possibilities can wait until the offseason and ST to discuss his future position options. No problem! I think Lewis, Krilloff, Correa once he FINALLY gets in a comfortable groove, and a healthy Polanco, (possibly Julien contributing), can provide a HIT tool to augment a lineup still built as too much "power or bust" scenario that can make a difference. I'm also OK if he has a few too many 0-for days and doesn't look ready/confident in his approach and they option him to St Paul for another few weeks. Not saying it's going to happen, but I'm OK if they decide that is best to get him in a comfortable groove/approach. I think the kid is special, and can be an All Star at any of 6 positions, depending how other positions shake out. Different, but related, Headrick has surprised the hell out of me. And Balazovic has not surprised me. Headrick blossomed enough in 2022 to be added to the 40 man. His work in ST surprised me as I didn't expect the velocity jump, and generally good stuff. He's even flashed a little with the Twins in his brief time with them. Despite any opinions as to what happened to Balazovic on the eve of ST, he showed up healthy and early and ready to go. And then stuff happened, whatever it was. And while he's shaking off rust, and the BB are too high, he's looking like the top prospect he was supposed to be coming in to 2022. The Mahle and Maeda situations have depleted AAA depth right now with SWR suddenly struggling. And the Twins need both Headrick and Balazovic as rotation depth right now. But the Twins are...sorry Saints fans...more important than their AAA team. And if either is not quite ready for, or needed tomorrow, for a rotation spot, I'm OK with them adding to the pen, which is struggling with Thielbar out, and Jax trying to find himself. This team has a chance to make some real noise if the offense can finally get untracked. And I do believe Lewis has the potential to help, when ready. And I don't want to short change the future of either Headrick...who I think is a bona-fide top middle relief option if not better...or Balazovic as a potential rotation arm. But at some point you have to look at talent and need and make the move. Talent often rises, eventually if not immediately. But it only happens with opportunity.

Absolutely. I'd be giving him a shot in the top 6 to see what can do. At least until Thielbar is back.

Jax has had some very bad luck that wasn't his fault. But his last couple of outings have been poor. So I believe his results have been a little skewed. Is his head right? There's a difference from a veteran like Pagan who has proven he isn't the answer, as opposed to a younger guy like Jax just struggling right now. They get Jax back on track and Thielbar back and the pen looks very different all of a sudden. I've been impressed by the "new/old and improved" Stewart at St Paul and early results with the Twins. The stuff is there, and he has experience. He gets his BB under control, they have a 5th arm in the pen who might just be for real. Moran has the ability and has been looking much better as of late. That's a potential really good 6. And the 8th spot is going to remain in flux for an innings eater who can be changed out. And that's just smart! Does the 7th spot remain in flux? Maybe. But I'd sure like to see that spot settled. And it's up to the pitchers to prove they should stick. I have a lot of hope/belief in Alcala, but I think he's been mishandled coming back this year. His stuff still looks pretty good, but he's stretched beyond 1 IP. Is that really a problem when the starters are usually going 6? To the OP directly, I like all 3 options. And to be honest, I hadn't realized Laweryson was throwing that well. I guess I was just so focused on other guys I had missed how good he's been this year. I always thought he'd be a great 1-3 IP middle guy. I think Funderburk has a future, but I don't think he's ready yet. I think Henriquez would have already been up except his season got off to a late start. But that late start, even with his late season debut in 2022, has the Twins wanting to give him a little more AAA time, IMO. But all 3 of those guys could be part of the 2nd half this season, as well as the future. I think the pen has been a question lately. But I don't think it's desperate. Again, Thielbar back and they get Jax on track, things look a lot better. Stewart might be a steal. Moran is looking better. And then you look at the 3 guys listed above and you start to feel a little better for the 2nd half at least. Hell, I know it was one game, but De Leon looked NASTY for his first couple of innings against the Dogers. I have no expectations, but if he could do that for 1-2 IP, the former top prospect might be a similar steal to Stewart. Where there is a rub is Headrick and Balazovic. The Twins need them for rotation depth, especially with SWR suddenly struggling this year. I'm not convinced Headrick has a long term future in the Twins rotation. But he might be needed this year at some point. And I am ridiculously adamant that Balazovic needs to remain as a rotation option because you just don't move a recent top 100 prospect who is healthy again and looking good again. Why on earth would you move a former top prospect to the pen when he's healthy and looking like the arm everyone thought he might be? On the flip side, the parent club is of more importance than the results of the Saints. The rotating 8th spot is a perfect option to rotate guys like Headrick, Balazovic, Winder, and Sands to show their stuff, get ML experience, and help the Twins. IMO, Headrick should have been up already to help with Thielbar out before going back to the Saints rotation. Unless he was too good to send down. And I'm OK if Jordy Blaze comes up in that 8th man spot to help at some point. But I wouldn't want him in the pen unless we are talking post season and one of the best arms the Twins have. Up and down to help is awesome. But he needs to stay as a viable SP option because I think that remains his future.

I do believe Buxton is going to play CF again, on a limited basis. Now, this is just my opinion, but I believe his days as an everyday CF are over. And it's to keep him healthy, in the lineup, on a daily basis for 120+ games per year. His bat and ability are game changing. I think the plan, going forward, is to play 2-3 games per week and DH the rest. Which means we need another quality option there. For the most part, that's worked this year with the addition of Taylor. Long term, options include Lewis, Martin, and Celestino. (I am deliberately leaving out potential options in A ball and lower.) I think Kiersey at AA has a shot with his glove and speed now that he's learning to hit and is flashing a little more pop as well. Is it possible Taylor is re-signed? Mmm...possibly. Could they sign someone or trade for someone? Absolutely. But I think they'd prefer to stick in house if possible. What's unfortunate for NOW, is Taylor's back having issues, Gordon hurting his shin, Kepler out with injury, Celestino still recovering from his hand injury, and Helman...a talented late bloomer ready for a shot...suddenly hurting his shoulder after getting a late start to the season from his spring hamstring issue, and raking for St Paul. It's not that the Twins didn't begin the season with depth and options, it's that in a bad comedy of poor luck, most of the options all got hurt at the same time. Really, really stinks that Helman got hurt at this time. (Sigh). Kepler will be back, reportedly, Monday or Tuesday. While he doesn't like playing CF, he just might have to do so here and there for a few weeks, even if not daily. If they want/need someone temporarily, I'd be looking at Contreras. He's better in the corners, but is a solid CF and having a good year, and provides a LH bat. Can they make room for him? He'd provide a temp solution with Kepler sharing CF with Taylor, allowing Taylor some rest by not playing daily right now as his back settles down. Again, I think Buxton is going to still play some CF going forward. But I think it's way to easy to just say "Buxton should just play CF". But do the Twins feel his legs are 100%, or close, and ready to go? Or do they feel he's not quite where they want him out there yet? Only they know. If Taylor can get his back healed up by not playing daily, and Kepler can fill in to help for a little while, they are still OK. And I'm just talking about this year. It can be solid with a share of Taylor, Kepler, and Buxton until Gordon is healthy again. And who knows what might happen the 2nd half with guys getting healthy and possible opportunities. To me the biggest issue is just the next few days and weeks. They can get through that, they'll have multiple options to keep CF solid for 2023.

Ye, they should have. But the problem then is the same as now, "who"? Articles like this are interesting with hindsight. But at the time, despite looking at numbers and history and projection, it's still a gamble as to who you sign. However, that gamble is well worth it, and a much smarter avenue to go down, rather than retaining literally the worst RP in the game for the past 5yrs. I still have hope for Alcala. But I also stated during the offseason I didn't want to HAVE to count on him. HUGE error in judgement keeping Pagan. And HUGE error to not take his $3.5M and add a little more and take a shot on a FA arm you felt good about. Then you cross your fingers. That's better than the alternative.

Sorry, and you can call me an optimist if you like, but IMO, the FO only made a SINGLE mistake this offseason when putting the pen together. Despite other candidates since sent down, or released at the end of ST...and I would have tried harder to keep Coulombe, but whatever...Duran, Lopez, Jax, and Thielbar was a very good 4 to rely on. There was nothing wrong with believing in Moran and Alcala as 5th and 6th options based on stuff and previous stuff. And the 8th and final spot is always going to be a rotation from AAA for a fresh arm to eat innings as needed. It allows the team the ability to not only cover those innings, but also allows ML experience to a young arm to be introduced to MLB. IF either Alcala or Moran underperform, they have options to be sent down for a time. Now, Moran has looked much better of late. The problem with Alcala, IMO, is he's looked pretty damn good for 1 IP. His issue seems to be going out for a 2nd inning, and that's when he seems to allow a big hit, even if he K's a guy or two or gets someone out on weak contact. Coming back from missing almost all of 2022, I would have just used him for ONE INNING until his confidence and control came around. So I don't think he's been used correctly to this point. Moot point right now as he's out on injury. Losing Winder and Henriquez to injury hurt options early on. The MISTAKE made was brining back Pagan as one of the top 7. Period. And this is not simply due to his horrific meltdown against the Dogers. He has the worst Wins Probability for a Twins RP in the last 20yrs. And he's got the highest ERA and worst WPA in all of MLB for 5yrs based on something like 30IP per season! Those are absolute numbers that an organization who is so tuned in to numbers they should recognize! My one big problem with the FO is, at times, underselling some players that should get a shot, and being just blind to the lack of performance of others. Is it hubris at times? They HAVE dumped arms at times, but have an unbelievable blindspot in regard to Pagan. It's silly, and unrealistic, to just go out and sign a collection of bullpen options for $ to fill your pen. And even the best RP will allow runs, and lose games. Period. It's reality. But I argued months ago that a smart and "plugged-in" FO SHOULD have been smart enough to move on from Pagan and used his $3.5M plus a little more to single out someone to not only replace the obviously hapless Pagan, but to provide insurance for Alcala in case he needed a little more time. I understand the RP FA market is always a bit of a crapshoot. But sometimes you take that shot vs keeping, LITERALLY, one of the worst RP in all of MLB. The FO had a hell of an offseason. But Pagan vs opportunity for someone else was their one, singular, big mistake. I appreciate the Twins approach, right now, to consider the St Paul rotation arms for bullpen help. Stewart looks like a great find, a former ML SP who lost 3yrs due to surgery and recovery only to reinvent himself as a higher velocity arm with different/better breaking stuff. He just needs to get his BB under control. But knowing they have a legitimate, contending team in place, they aren't afraid to bring up an arm for the pen, even if it might strain St Paul. For this season, as well as the future, it would be a mistake to make any permanent move for SWR, Headrick, or the suddenly viable Balazovic to the pen. They need to remain stretched out for NOW, as well as the future. But I agree with the FO seeming opinion that all hands are on deck to help NOW. I DON'T agree with the comment/idea that someone like Balazovic is being "prepped" for limited innings at the ML level when needed. Was that just a bad comment? I'm sure hoping so. You keep SP stretched out, and use them however you need them. IMO, despite his recent great start, Headrick should have been brought up while Thielbar was out. He's looked good and promising. He can always go back when Thielbar is ready. I like the idea of plugging guys in when you need them. It's how baseball works. But crap happens. Jax has been just fine, with only a few games where he didn't have it. He's had a few games where horrible luck and defense let him down. You stick with an arm that's done right previously. But you should also be smart enough to jettison an arm that is just BAD. Pagan, GONE! Jax will be OK. Headrick should be up until Thielbar is ready. Rotate a few guys and trust in your arms on hand to remove mistakes and comp for injury but don't dismiss future potential by moving someone to the pen permanently. The Twins have a few weeks, maybe a month, to have Thielbar back, Jax at his previous self, and a couple nice arms at the ready to make a run. They have time and opportunity to make this pen work.

Yes, we're talking prospects. And not all of them turn out, and we know this. Which is why things remain fluid, amongst other situations/issues. But it's also no hard to look at top, talented prospects doing well at the upper levels and predict a positive outcome. Personally, I've never thought Lee would be up this year, no matter what he does. He was in college this time last year. He's got good players ahead of him. But the tools and instincts are readily present to see. But he's part of the future, arriving some time in 2024. So that's why I list him as the future, not the now. Julien will probably never be great defensively anywhere. But he's not a poor athlete. In his 2yrs of college, and his first year in the Twins system, he's played 1B/3B/LF. He's a somewhat different version of Arraez, better athlete, more speed and power, not as good of a hit tool. But when the bat/offense plays, you find a spot. I can understand the FO sticking him at 2B right now so he can just relax. But I think it's a mistake for him to not being given time at 1B. As to whether he can play some LF? IDK. He doesn't have a great arm, which is why I dismiss 3B. But he should be able to cover LF on an "adequate" basis here and there to increase his versatility in the lineup unless he just demonstrates he has lousy tracking skills. But how many average to poor LF with good bats do we see across MLB? Over the last 20yrs, the Twins themselves have played Young, Willingham, and others in LF due to their bat. And again, if Lewis moves to the OF, where he would probably be very good, it frees up 2B for Julien. I'm a fan of Miranda, and a believer, despite his rough start to this year. I like him as a RH bat to play both corners and DH. But if everyone else is who we think and hope they are, he might be "crunched" out of the Twins plans IF Buxton continues to be a primary DH going forward. At least being a "sometimes" OF creates more room. Hey, it's a lot of spitballing in regard to Buck's future. But it sure is nice to have him in the lineup instead of out of it. He's a pretty special player, even at DH. And I think that gets missed a lot in various discussions. And I didn't even mention Wallner, as I was mostly concentrating on the INF. I think Wallner has a chance to be pretty darn good, based on power, an incredible arm, way better speed than he's given credit for, and consistent improvement that he's shown coming up through the system. And I believe he will get his opportunity. But the defense needs to improve. And while he will always K a lot, he needs to prove he can continue to hit a little and BB at the ML level like he has at the milb level. I certainly haven't written Wallner off.

So I'm late to this OP, but anyway: 1] SUPER ENCOURAGED by what he's done so far this year. Yes, the BB are too high, but the velocity is back, the K's seem to be there, and he seems to be looking like the top prospect he was entering 2022, and not the nightmare he was last season while struggling through his ankle and delivery issues. 2] NOT going to predict how good he might become, but you simply DON'T take a top SP prospect and move him to the pen this soon when he's looking again like the top 100 prospect he was entering 2022! As good as he's looking right now, as pointed out above, he's still getting his legs under him after missing all of ST. He ABSOLUTELY needs to stay in the rotation and keep building up and harnessing his command for the future. 3] The Twins have commented that they are sort of "grooming" him for a potential spot in the pen this year to help. They HAVEN'T said they are removing him from a potential SP role in the future. And this makes sense to me. At the drop of a hat, ANY SP from AAA can be brought up to throw 1-4 IP if and when needed. When you are a contending club having a good year, all hands are on deck and the AAA club having to fill in is just a circumstance they have to deal with in order for the parent club to have the best arms available to WIN. 4] I think point #3 also applies to Headrick. He doesn't have the pure stuff of Balazovic. But BOTH are possible rotation pieces for the Twins this season due to injury, or even double headers at some point. Personally, I have a gut feeling Headrick is destined to be a quality BP piece, but I always believe in keeping SP prospects as starters for as long as possible. And the needs of a contending parent club come first. So keep them BOTH stretched out in the Saints rotation and use them as necessary. 5] Right now, the usage of Alcala is a moot point as he's on the IL. But I've watched him a lot. He's usually looked pretty good for 1 inning. He seems to lose control, or allow that 1 big hit, when asked to go 2 innings. Coming back from a missed 2022, what is wrong with using him for just that 1 inning for NOW while he gains confidence and control? THAT has been a big mistake, IMO.

I know we got kind of off topic with the whole "future lineup" issue here, but I have to throw my $.02 in here. NOW: (Lewis off the 60 day) Farmer is doing a great job. And I know he's worked on some things to hopefully hit RHP better. But Lewis is special, and part of the future. For now, he stays on the dirt playing 3B and maybe some SS. He's happy, his agent is happy, the Twins are happy, and OF can be revisited next year. Farmer plays a ton, but as the excellent utility player he is. THE FUTURE: The future is hard to predict as it comes with questions about Polanco being kept...who I love and is a great ballplayer...and what happens with Buxton. I don't like having a full time, or near full time DH, unless they are pretty special. In his first POTENTIAL shift to primary DH...I think he'll still play a little OF going forward...here's how Buxton projects as of now: .236/ .341/ .493/ .834 quad slash. 112 R/ 35 Dbls/ 4 Trips/ 36 HR/ 84 RBI/ 16 SB Obviously, RUNS and RBI could shift depending on where he bats most often. That's a pretty special DH! Lee, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff is the very best INF as I see it playing out. But no room for Polanco, and Julien might be limited (unless he can play a passable LF to increase flexibility), and not sure there's enough AB to go around for Miranda or not at 1B/3B/DH. Now, if Buxton ends up being at least a part time OF, suddenly the DH spot opens up more for Julien and Miranda, and others, as the DH spot becomes a little more flexible. If Lewis moves to ANY of the OF spots...and he's got the tools to play all 3 if his wheels are still intact, including CF...then 2B opens up for Julien, and there's much more room for Miranda on a regular basis. The infield defense drops slightly, but the lineup is deeper and better. Still no room, as I see it, for Polanco past 2024. And Martin, if and when he's healthy and ready to take the next step, moves to the OF, IMO, and can be a starter in LF or CF...possibly with Lewis...OR, a utility OF who can probably help cover 2B/3B as necessary. There's a lot of moving parts here, dependent a lot on Polanco and Buxton's future. But it's a hell of a lot of talent to plug in wherever best and create one hell of a team/lineup! But I don't think most of this will have answers until 2024. So for NOW, Lewis in the dirt for 2023 and we'll see how things begin to shake out next year.

I don't dislike Pagan because he allows runs to score. I mean, every RP allows rubs to score. Our own, amazing Duran has allowed a couple HR this season. Even the very best allow runs and have bad days. Just recently, before being places on the IL, I was really liking what I was seeing from Alcala DESPITE giving up a couple HR in his last few appearances. Because I saw some nasty pitches and Ks and good outs surrounding those HR. Also, it seemed all his runs were scored on his 2nd IP, not his first. So I was feeling encouraged by what I was seeing from Alcala despite the final results. And I absolutely will admit that Pagan has been about ML solid, average since his early April blow-up. My problem is...and yes, this dates back to last year as well...he can ONLY seem to perform in low leverage spots. And even with an 8 man pen, each and every guy in that pen is going to be placed in to a higher leverage position once in a while. It's OK if they aren't great in them. But they shouldn't just look fragile and fall completely apart. And when Pagan loses it, he loses it BIG TIME with BB and grooving pitches for big innings. I didn't want him back. I thought they could have done better with just a little more investment. I'll admit he's been OK in his low/lower leverage spots this season. But I've seen enough last year and this year to know I don't want him on my favorite team unless he can only be used in low leverage situations. And that just doesn't exist. Again, everyone gets tougher spots at certain points and has to try and get through it...no fall to pieces. The problem right now, unfortunately, is Winder has looked bad. Henriquez is still ramping up. Do we want Headrick and Balazovic out of the AAA rotation right now? Sands appears to only be a long man at this point, though I hope he might grow. I'm just not sure who is available to bring up that's better. But I'd sure rather give a couple younger arms with a future a look see rather than maintain the Pagan merry-go-round. I'm just not sure there is room to remove him at this time.

Having a hard time with some of this. So Falvey gets credit for helping Cleveland build a pitching pipeline. But a number of the arms acquired were done so via trade from other teams, not to mention several that were mid round draft choices that were developed beyond initial expectation. But acquiring Ryan from the Rays as a milb pitcher...even though he's been better "developed" since joining the Twins...is NOT part of pitching development. The development of Ober...who has very respectable if not excellent numbers...is also not noteworthy as he could suffer an injury setback at any moment. Umm...isn't that true for ANY pitcher? His rebuilt mechanics allowed him to throw ALL of 2021 and develop, even though he was nursed a bit. He was great early and late in 2022, surrounded by a lower body muscle injury...hernia? Not sure I ever heard....and looks healthy and great this season. Varland...the 2 time Twins milb pitcher of the year...has an average ERA as he's been bit some by the HR ball. But he's averaging 9+ K per IP at the ML level with an acceptable 1.22 WHIP and OK .255 BA as a ROOKIE with 9 GS, 5 of which are on the road I believe, including 2 at Yankee stadium. What's not to like in his brief career and the stuff and potential he's shown so far? And, of course, we just won't talk about trades and development for arms like Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and some other young arms just beginning their careers or who haven't reached the ML just yet. So let's go back to the OP. I LOVED the Petty draft selection. And he might turn out to be a good/great ML arm. But unless you have a crystal ball that sees in to the future, how could anyone predict greatness from the most volatile of draft selections, a HS pitcher, vs adding a top of the rotation arm in Gray? He was excellent in 2022 when healthy. He's been even better this year. The only knock on him is being 33yo and needing too many pitches sometimes to get his high K numbers. But I'd love to have him for another year or two. Guy is good, and a leader as well as a performer. Graterol for Maeda? I'd do that all day long. Graterol is young enough to improve, but his career numbers are those of an OK, solid BP arm. The Twins got a Cy Young worthy season in a great, fun 2020. I'd make that trade any day of the week. Just stinks his elbow gave out as his ST in 2021 had him looking as good or better. Pablo Lopez is not some run of the mill arm. He's pretty damn good. And he's got room to be even better. And it cost us a fan favorite and great hitter in Arraez. And you won't find a bigger fan of Luis than me. And I miss him. But Miami isn't exactly raking with him in the lineup. And the Twins were going to have to trade at least 1, if not more, of their infielders in the near future. Again, I'd make this trade over and over again. Mahle was a talented, relatively young, quality SP who's numbers were better outside of Cincinnati. It was a smart trade. I say that really liking all 3 prospects sent out! I thought Steer might be a great super utility player. I thought ECS had a chance to be a really good DH and backup 1B. I liked Povich better than Hajjar, but I liked his potential. Mahle, lest we remind ourselves, had ZERO issues with his shoulder after multiple doctor exams and a couple MRI's. And he looked just fine to begin this season. He even looked good in his 4 innings before being pulled out due to "discomfort". Who knew his elbow would blow out like that? They traded 3 solid prospects with a future for a really good arm who hadn't reached it's full potential yet. Prospects that might have been behind other equally talented prospects. This may turn out to be a loss, but it was a good and smart move at the time. Paddack and Pagan vs Rogers and Rooker. I wouldn't have made that deal. I wanted to keep Rogers and add an arm to work with him. This didn't turn out right for anyone. Crap happens. Paddack looked great before his elbow gave out. We know what Pagan did. Rogers, like Paddack, was great early. Rogers, unfortunately for him, looks like a shadow of his former self. And while I still don't trust him, Pagan has actually looked pretty damn good past his initial 6 run blow-up to begin the season. And PLEASE, no more "Rooker was a mistake" arguements after he washed out with 3 teams before a good start to 2023 with the hapless A's. This trade comes down to a full recovery from Paddack. If he does so, even as a mid rotation SP, ultimately, the Twins "win" this trade, for whatever its worth. So here we are at last. The Twins have one of the best rotations in all of baseball as we reach the quarter mark. And they've done so already losing Mahle, and Maeda...at least for the short term...and we have a potential roster crunch in regard to prospect player depth. And we BEGAN the season 7 SP deep before injury. And in all of this....STILL having player depth despite trades...we have to ask if we've found value in trading for pitching talent? The FO hasn't been perfect. But they've done a hell of a job to put this together, without seemingly sacrificing the future. I'm just knocking on wood for no more serious arm injuries and just letting all the pen arms fight it out for dominance. We get a proven 6 or 7 deep with the 8 spot being a rotating piece, this staff will lead us to 90+ wins.

You might get your wish come this time next year, if not before. Festa just might be on the top 100 at some point next year if he continues his amazing ride. But he has to maintain what he's doing and continue to improve. Raya is being brought along slowly as he's had a couple minor tweaks here and there after being drafted in covid 2020. But he appears to be the complete package, given a little time. And Prielipp is also being nurtured carefully after he's thrown so little the past year and a half. But a healthy, strong 2nd half this season could see either, or both, contending for a top 100 spot fairly soon. Without going in to needless details at this early point, there's a handful of arms in A and low A that could surprise in the next year or two.

He was one of my "pick to click" players last year and I got that right. Yeah me! LOL. But I've been on his hype train for a while now. The K % is a concern, no doubt. And while these things are very fluid, his milb career slash line is: .271/ .354/ .463/ .816 This tells me...by rough standards to be sure...that he might always K more than anyone would like, but he has the ability to still "hit" as well as take some BB. I can live with a 30% ish K for any batter if he can also just hit the damn ball once in a while, and take some walks to get OB, while providing XB and HR power. A 3 outcome player can still be a very good and productive one. But no question the BA and OB could nosedive if the K % keeps rising. So he still has to keep progressing and developing. I was worried he and Helman might be rule 5 picks this past offseason. Helman is older, a late bloomer, and maybe not a starter anywhere, but could be a great super utility player for someone, if it doesn't happen for the Twins. I didn't expect a proposed 2023 contending club to look at Severino, but I thought a Detroit, or KC, might look at him as a talented, "not quite ready" 2B/3B/DH to stash. Was very pleased when that didn't happen. Only slightly surprised Severino didn't begin the year at St Paul. Think they just wanted to build on his half season at AA a little more. But I'd bet both he and Lee are at AAA by the start of the 2nd half. He's got to continue to improve, of course, or it's a moot point. Long term, I'm not sure his potential fit when you look at all the position player talent in front of him. Does he potentially convert to the OF? But I'm pretty sure he's going to force his way on to the 40 man this next offseason.

I think it's a fair list, regardless of their actual rankings. I mean, personally, I'd have Lewis higher but I understand the setbacks he's had. And by next season...knock on wood...he will have graduated off any prospect list. I am as high on Lee as anyone, and can't wait for him to develop and reach the Twins. And despite a recent mini-slump, I think he's right where he should be. I think he's just making adjustments to the league, as they make adjustments to him. I think there's a reasonable chance he reaches St Paul at some point this year. But am I the only one who smiles and shares his head that he'll be in Minnesota soon? That infield has Polanco, and Correa, and Lewis pretty soon. Then there is Julien, and a hopeful bounceback from the pretty talented Miranda. Lee can, of course, force the issue, but I don't see him added to the 40 man and in a Twins uniform until sometime in 2024, after the season begins. It's just natural development time and numbers. The entire Cedar Rapids team is basically a collection of really young players being pushed to that level. I don't have numbers, maybe someone does, but by age and professional experience both, it has to be one of the youngest and least experienced teams in the league. We have to remember how young Rodriguez is, and he didn't even get a full season at Ft Myers last year. I wouldn't be disappointed at all if he spent most or, or all of, this season at A+. Not saying that as a negative...kid had tremendous talent and power and a natural feel for the game...he just needs to stay healthy and gain experience. I have a bromance with Julien as I like his story and think his hit tool and offensive game is LEGIT. And I can't wait for him to be a fixture with the Twins, probably at the top of the lineup most days. Problem is room for him, even when ready. I seldom disagree with the FO, but sometimes I do and don't understand their process. I can "get" him focusing on 2B to just "settle in" and grow his bat. But he needs to play 1B as well. And if he just isn't any kind of 3B option...which he's played previously... I get it. But unless he's just a butcher with no tracking skills at all, he should also be worked in to LF. All he has to be is decent/average, or at least "acceptable" in order for him to be versatile enough to be in the lineup almost daily SOMEWHERE. I mean, AK at 1B most days, Polanco at 2B...unless moved...Lewis and Lee, eventually, and Miranda getting his act together again. Gotta find ways to get Julien in the lineup when ready.