DocBauer

I have mixed feelings on the signing. I mean, it's only $5.25M (supposedly with some incentives) and 1yr. He does bring a quality, experienced, veteran presence to the team, and I like that. He's still a solid/good defensive 1B. He's always been a grinder who doesn't K much, will take a bunch of BB, and has a knack for moving runners or knocking them in. The problem I have is he's going to be 38yo and is coming off his first above average season since 2019. His once vaunted OB% has dropped, and while switch hitting sounds good, he's much better swinging from the right side these days. I hope for the best for him and the Twins in 2024, but the IF factor is pretty high. IF he can repeat 2023, or come close to it, he's a good counter for Kirilloff at 1B, and a potentially excellent PH as well, who can also spend some time as a decent DH. If he's asked to play more than as a semi-regular 1B or DH, I think the Twins are in trouble. Because I think he's going to have a hard time replicating last year, much less improve on it. I don't dislike Santana in the slightest. I don't dislike the signing. I think it's actually a pretty smart, low risk, inexpensive move. And I'm hoping for the best. I just hope he's used properly, and not over used like a Morrison, or a Gallo, because the FO just HOPES SO MUCH that he can rewind the clock for one more year. Good move. It allows Miranda to prove he's healthy and ready, or to get so. And it doesn't put early pressure on Severino. But Santana should be an easy cut at $5M if he's hitting .199 with a .300 OB% and poor power after a couple of months.

With his athleticism and arm, I could easily see him as a 3B a couple of years from now. Of course, just because he's large and probably still growing some more, doesn't mean he will necessarily lose his speed and be out of contention for CF. I could see him as a hybrid player who plays CF/OF as well as 1B, very similar to former Angels great Darin Erstad. Or...gulp...dare I say a Gallo comp defensive comp? As I stated in a different thread, he's probably the Twins prospect that I find the most intriguing.

I don't think it has anything to do with DeSclafani directly. I think it has to do with disappointment we didn't get someone better than him. On top of that, his 2022 was wiped out due to injury after a handful of innings. And last year, he got off to a good start in April, was OK in May, and then fell apart before being placed on the IL for the remainder of the season. If we could somehow get the 2021 version of him, or the April 2023 version of him, he might just be a #3. But that might be unreal expectations or hopes. Meanwhile, I think a lot of people lose focus on Varland and only remember his last 3 starts in 2023 and that final ERA and WHIP. In 5 starts in 2022 he had a very solid 3.81 ERA, solid 1.231 WHIP, 26 hits in 26 IP, but a mediocre 7.3K. Last season, through his first 7 starts, he had an ERA of 3.51. He allowed 39 hits in 41 IP and ended the total season with a 1.221 WHIP and 9.4K per. His best performance was against Houston on May 31st where he blanked the Astros for 7 IP on only 4 hits. For whatever reason, the wheels seemed to come off the next 3 games and he was sent down until his September promotion. But it's those first 12 starts that have people like myself excited for what he might develop in to, at least a solid middle of the rotation starter. At least potentially. And I understand the depth philosophy. Even if Varland looks great in ST and out pitches DeSclafani, he won't be in the initial rotation barring injury to someone. He'll be in St Paul waiting for the opportunity that will eventually come. So again, I don't think anyone has anything against Disco per say, they are just disappointed we didn't somehow, some way, get someone better.

Right or wrong, as of today, the FO is looking at a hopefully healthy Desclafini just being a solid 5th SP and letting Varland sit in AAA for depth for when someone gets hurt. Same path that Ober followed in 2023. The idea is the veteran doesn't have options, so you hold an arm back so you aren't asking Festa, SWR, or anyone else having to come up in April or May and be that 6th starter. Agree or disagree, that's the process. Funderburk is in the pen. I doubt Descalfini is in the pen unless we get a trade to add a quality prospect trade for a SP. A Duvall or Pham OF signing is the most probable signing. A trade of 2 top 10 prospects, with a couple 20's or so, possibly including the Gray comp pick included somewhere, to add a quality SP, only happens if the new TV deal convinces ownership to make that extra move. No clue at that point if Desclafini might be included in such a deal or moved to the pen. It does feel the Twins are doing all they can to build the best and deepest pen they can with multiple options available. Jackson may or may not be part of that. But it's apparent they are attempting to do so. I'm seeing a mix in 2024...as of today...of the Dodgers and Royals. SOLID roster with depth and flexibility combined with a solid rotation and deep pen.

This signing really confuses me. I know he's 36yo and doesn't have a long track record, but are the Jays so deep that they didn't have room for him? He had a mediocre, sorta average 2019, didn't throw in 2020, had an almost invisible 2022, and put up a really good 2023. The ERA was outstanding, for what that's worth, with an excellent WHIP and solid but not great 8.2K. I know it was only about 29 IP in 25 games, but that seems like someone you'd like to have on the 40 man hoping for more in 2024. So yeah, I'm kind of confused he was just jettisoned. Were the Jays trying to sneak him through? If so, why has he been just sitting there for so long and nobody else snaged him? He would seem to be better than a couple other guys they've grabbed and cut already this offseason. There's probably nothing more here than a potentially solid middle pen arm. The upside is probably limited. It's just a little confusing to me.

It's possible. But other than Kepler, what I THINK they want to move in a trade is prospects outside the top 5 who aren't on the 40 man, possibly including the comp pick they just got for Gray. That pick has good value.

Bubba is an obvious choice. After that it gets a little harder. Would they try to slide someone like Balazovic through waivers. The just signed Duarte might be an option as well if they want to play the upside of a younger arm vs an OK 30+ year old who's been only average? Maybe Gordon? But my gut says they want to see what he looks like in ST unless they still add another RH OF bat.

I love the memory lane aspect of these rankings. I was born in 1965, so my recollections of the 60's and very early 70's teams is really just what my dad talks about, and what I read in various places. So I have more of an emotional attachment to teams from the mid 70's on, when I began to follow and listen to the Twins. So I absolutely understand the wide variety of opinions as to who is the best and where teams should rank, and what criteria should b used. But this team does feel like it should be in the top 5...at least...based on record and dominance. So I won't argue whether being #2 is accurate or not, it's at least worthy of consideration I'd think.

I understand the FO having patience and waiting for the right deal. It's often paid off. But I'm rather disappointed in this offseason so far. I understand that try as they might, they couldn't pull another rabbit out of the hat deal like Odorizzi, Gray, or Lopez in past off seasons. It's apparent Polanco could bring in a return, but not the arm they need by himself. But again, why not add to Polanco and see what you could get? If rumors are true, Seattle wanted BOTH Polanco and Kepler and would have increased their return package. If we accept that, and the Twins would have maybe added a solid prospect or two, could the Twins have added one the Mariner's top arms? I think I would have done that and figured out the OF after the fact. I mean, Wallner goes to RF, sign Duvall/Pham/Soler as a RH OF bat, roll with them and Larnach and see what you might get out of Helman and Prato to cobble together a 5 man group that would also have Castro. It might seem a little disjointed, but I'd be willing to roll with that for a year if it meant that top SP came back. But...that didn't happen. And I just don't know that there is time or opportunity for a deal at this point for a top arm. And that's disappointing. NOT a fan of DeScalfini unless he's somehow 100% healthy and can return to his 2021 form despite turning 34yo in April. The Carlos Santana move makes sense if they aren't looking for him to be a daily player. He fits as a part time 1B/DH/PH. There should be enough $ left to add an OF still without blowing up the lowered budget. I would think Taylor...more speed and defense...or Duvall...more pure power...could be had for around $5-7M ish at this point. But could they grab Soler...not as good defensively as Duvall but potentially better offensively...on a 2yr deal for $13/14/15M per instead of the 3yr deal he was projected to get? Offense and bullpen that are strong can help cover the rotation some. Many ways to win baseball games. Witness last season when the leagues best staff the first few months couldn't buy some wins due to the struggling offense. Then, even though the staff slipped a little bit, the team won more games because the offense got figured out. There's still room to add and tweak and try to put the best team on the field to begin 2024. But I remain disappointed in not being able to add a better rotation arm, even though I like adding Topa to the pen.

It's clear the Twins value Kepler, but I don't know that they over value him. He's almost always played really good defense, run the bases well, and despite a bad and disappointing 2 1/2 years with the bat, he's always been CAPABLE of suddenly turning it around. That happened about mid season last year. Seattle wanting him AND Polanco shows that other teams DO value him as well. Now, I've been saying he should only be moved in a deal this season because the OF is pretty barren if he's gone as all the prospects are pretty much AA to begin 2024, or lower. BUT, having heard that Seattle would have gone bigger on their end for a deal that included Polanco and Kepler... plus another piece or two possibly on the Twins end...if it brought back one of the Mariner's top arms on a 3 or 4 for 1 deal, I think they should have pulled the trigger. Then, grab a RH FA OF on a 1yr, put Wallner in RF, probably use Larnach as part of a platoon in LF, and go a little wild and dangerous and check out Helman and Prato as OF possibles to be added to the 40 man and just see what you can cobble together. That's not to say I WANT to move Kepler and possibly scramble the OF, but I'd rather have the top of the rotation arm and figure piece together the OF a little bit here and there. Just my thoughts. But I think it's clear other teams do value Kepler. I don't know about less than the Twins.

It's not an exciting signing, but it's an inexpensive signing that fills a need. He's a solid career defensive 1B, can still, apparently, hit LHP, isn't completely feeble against RHP, and is a low risk move to share time with Kirilloff at 1B, PH, and maybe DH a little. If he's asked to do more than that, the offense might be in trouble. Still, he's a share/reserve 1B and Miranda doesn't have to be counted on out of the gate and Severino doesn't have to be rushed. Now, there should still be enough $ left to add a RH OF, whether it be the defense of Taylor, or the power of Duvall/Pham/Soler. Then snag Odorizzi or similar on a Milb rebound deal for extra depth, and the ST roster looks about ready.

Seriously, why is this a question? In his 10 ML seasons he's been...never great...but above league average in 5 of them. Of the other 5 seasons, I believe his highest OPS+ was 92. And there were a pair of recent seasons in the 70's. And he's no longer positive on any defensive position is he? He doesn't even add to the floor at this point. Grab Taylor or Duvall, one more defense and one more offense, and either seemingly fits in to the 2024 payroll. OR, stretch the payroll a little more and grab Soler at 2yrs and $28-30M and add some potential RH power. But stop with floor or basement types.

Payroll should be sitting around $120-123M right now as it was listed around $155-118M after the Polanco deal and the $ coming back. There is roster room, and I'd like to think financial room, for a Taylor 1yr deal/reunion, or grab a more powerful bat like Duvall or Pham. It would push the Twins to $130M-ish. That should be affordable from just about every opinion/speculation I've heard/read. Do they look harder at CF in Taylor? Or more power and offense from someone like Duvall or Pham? Soler might be too expensive, even if he has to settle for 2yrs and $26 instead of the 3yrs and $45M he reportedly wanted or was expected to sign for. Almost exactly 2 weeks until ST starts and these guys...and others...are still sitting and waiting. So patience might just let the Twins add that last/extra bat while still keeping the payroll in that $130M ish range.

Bad in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Nice little resurgence in 2023. But at 38yo we're supposed to believe he can do it again? Not really crazy about this. Still, good 1B, good clubhouse guy, can probably at least help against LHP, and doesn't mean the team feels forced to depend on Miranda. (Coming off surgery and a really bad season and has options left to work his way back). And only 1yr and a little over $5M can't get too upset. Don't feel good if he's forced to do more than just be a part time player. Now, with a TV deal close to being knocked out, go get another bat.

Can't wait to see this kid throw this year. Smart, classy, hard working, big and strong with velocity that sits mid 90's at least with a pair of at least decent secondary offerings to work with. And he'll oy be 18yo for most all of the season. Going to disagree somewhat on scouts and FO not having much information on HS arms. Top kids are scouted for a couple of years these days. And many of them go to showcase and tournaments. So they are watched and poked and prodded. But still, I don't know your information is as complete as a college prospect as it's got to be much harder to accurately value the levels of competition for HS players. And then you also have the injury factor on top of inexperience and less "prove it" time with your secondary offerings. But if you could build a HS pitching prospect, it would probably be someone like Soto.

I feel a little better about him now than initially. Velocity is there, he's got some length and projectability to go with it, and either a decent slider or sweeper in the making. What troubles me is only pitching at low A after not appearing in 2022. Similar Twins draftees split time and saw A+ at the same time. And a couple have the potential to even begin 2024 at AA. I never have a problem with a young arm refining or adding a 3rd pitch. Even for a bullpen arm, a 3rd pitch of any decent quality makes a real difference. With his length and build and good velocity, I'm thinking a splitter and junk a straight change maybe? FB/SLIDER-CUTTER and a split might be devastating. But he just has to be at A+ to begin this next season if there is any real thought of remaining a SP. I mean, 23yo isn't ancient, but level/experience wise he's a half level/season behind the Twins 2022 picks. I'm kinda thinking to keep him in the CR rotation to give him IP and time to work on that 3rd pitch...again, maybe a splitter...and then move him to the pen mid year-ish. That MIGHT even allow for a AA cup of coffee at the end of the year if things fall in to place.

I'm intrigued. A few bullet points. 1] I love, appreciate, and want as much good defense as I can get out of all of my players. I also want and appreciate positional flexibility. That being said, I'll take the better offensive player every time if it's even close. 2] There's been some debate about how much TOTAL $ is coming back to the Twins in the Polanco deal. But suffice it to say, current payroll sits between $115-118M. If we are to believe educated estimates of $125-140M as acceptable 2024 payroll, the Twins have POTENTIALLY $22-25M to spend. POTENTIALLY. Now, as to Soler, he's good. He's been inconsistent in his career, and I just have a hard time trusting a rebound season right before becoming a FA. But $15M per is NOT a large amount in today's game. I might be on board for 2yrs, but I don't like 3yrs. Too much risk for me, and the Twins, IMO. Career quad slash lines actually favor Soler over Duvall. And he's younger. I pay attention to defensive metrics, but I find them to be arbitrary and never 100%. I like that Duvall can play at least an OK CF. I kinda dismiss Duvall at 1B since he hasn't played it in years, never played it a ton, but I guess he could be expected to do so again in a limited basis. And I don't care if Duvall has almost neutral splits really. I kind of like it as he might be a part time CF option in CF. I'm looking at Duvall as being a regular, but not an every day player, and providing depth. And he still might be a better RH bat against LH pitching than Wallner or Kepler, so what's wrong if he's got neutral splits? Do the Twins want to have someone who is a primary DH unless they are special like Cruz? No. They want that spot open for half days off and to rotate. That isn't just Buxton. That's half days off for anyone and everyone. And it gets more complicated when Lee is ready and you might DH Julien as well. But guys get hurt, there is almost always SOMEONE on the IL, even for something small, so your 13 position player roster is always in flux to some degree. There are checks and balances to the entire roster that give Soler and Duvall edges in this arguement. More defensive flexibility, a 1yr deal, neutral splits, lower cost to MAYBE add a 1B option/bench option to secure that spot better vs even better offense, but higher $ for more years and at least a little less defensive flexibility. Soler might make the most sense if it's 2yr at $14-15 per. Maybe a player opt out after year 1? If it takes a 3rd year, I think I and the Twins are probably out.

For myself, he's the most intriguing player in the entire system. I say that as Jenkins is simply considered more of a "he's going to do it, it's just a question of how well/great he may do it", and Winokur is maybe as good of an athlete but with more questions. Hence, my personal "most intriguing" label. Power is there. The arm is there. Overall athleticism is there. Above average to good speed is there, though I don't know enough yet to know if we're just talking playing speed to cover ground vs maybe stealing some bases. That's a hell of a base for a 19yo kid to work with! There is absolutely no reason to not keep playing him at SS until he proves he can't, possibly just outgrowing the position. But 3B looks like a good landing spot for him. But why not CF? Good speed, good length, cannon arm, all good qualities for CF unless, again, he just outgrows the position and loses too much speed. But nothing wrong if that happens and he ends up as a powerful corner bat either. (Again, 3B might be a good option as well). But let's be honest, IF he slows down appreciably, and somehow ends up at 1B 5yrs from now, but can hit decently and crank out 30HR, even that would be a great result. It all comes down to bat to ball skills and acceptable BB and K numbers. I understand the initial concerns, but we're talking 17 games from a kid right out of HS at this juncture. But the skills and potential are tantalizing, so I have no problem with him being ranked this high. And as I said in the begining, he's probably the most intriguing position player to me.

Personally, I have a lot of faith in Kirilloff IF HEALTHY. And that's the crux of it all isn't it? I think any sort of suggestion that he might not "fit in" with the Twins profile is, at best, pre-mature if not misguided. He was brought along slowly in 2023 so that he could rehab his 2nd, and aggressive, wrist surgery. The fact that full, projected, power didn't click in completely is easily explained by getting in a groove, but also just "trusting" his wrist to not come back and bite him. I'd say mission accomplished! Repeating his numbers, .270/ .348/ .419/ .793 and an OPS+ of 117. 26 total XB hits...11 of them HR...in 281 AB. Those are good numbers. Good June, slipped in July, good July again. And then he hurt his shoulder diving for a ball. His wrist appears fine. I think, generally speaking, 1B is a fairly "safe" position unless you're stepped on, or get hurt diving for a ball. Can he recover 100%, and not take a great deal of time to do so, and his shoulder be fine? The Twins value power, and they should. And AK has power. But there is no "sell out" approach by the Twins that they only want K machines with power. That's only part of the equation. You also need some contact bats, good OB% guys, for a mix of approaches. Saying Kirilloff doesn't fit is like saying Arraez wasn't important in their lineup because all he did was get OB foe guys to knock him in. As chpettit19 pointed out, he hit primarily in the 2-4/5 holes because he was hitting, was getting OB, and was showing power and run production. How does a guy like that not fit in? It simply comes down to health. The wrist appears fixed. The reports on his shoulder injury and repair were good. Can he NOW put that injury history behind him for 400-450 AB? If so, he's an important part of the team and at least the immediate future. HOWEVER, there is nothing wrong with Julien being able to also play 1B. There is nothing wrong with the idea of letting Larnach try his hand there in ST to see if he can increase his value by being more flexible. Miranda and Severino may play a part in the future at 1B. That's a good thing, to have that depth. I wouldn't make any sort of major at 1B until or unless I know that AK is going to have further issues. Then it becomes a different ballgame altogether, pun intended. Sign Duvall for the OF. I only grab one of the remaining 1B options out there if the doctors and trainers are feeling concerned at this point. But 2024 might be Kirilloff's most important season.

Adam Duvall still makes the most sense to me. Does the $ work? Would he do 1 year? Solid bat, and can play all 3 OF spots. And while he has some past injury issues, he needs to be a regular in the Twins lineup, but doesn't have to be an every day player.

With all due respect to Salano and what he contributed to the 2023 Twins, I'd have a hard time spending anything other than a milb deal for a 36yo utility INF who had his one more moment in the sun. I'd be OK if he's willing for a milb deal because I think that he's only going to get that at this point. There's arguements about the Twins adding a RH bat. That makes sense. But I don't think that bat should be a DH only because the Twins want to keep that spot reserved to run half days off for EVERYONE, including Buxton here and there. Don't get me wrong. If the Twins signed someone like Martinez as a DH the lineup could use him. But the depth and potential depth of this team and lineup doesn't mesh with a DH only player. And I really don't want to spend $ on a throw away guy. Today, right now, a couple weeks before ST. Jorge Soler or Adam Duvall should not only be targets for the Twins, but they semselves should realize the market is not what they hoped for. I like Duval better than Solar because he's just a much better defensive player. If we are spending available payroll to a bat Duvall is my choice. Hands down.

Just let me say that with afterthought and more reading and reflection, I'm liking the Topa add more and more. I'm not sure where he fits in the pen hierarchy at this time, but if his 2023 is even close to being real and sustainable, I really like his addition to the pen. And that does make the trade better.

BTW, if you recall, Severino was originally signed as a 2B. Dispensing with his early years with Atlanta and the Twins, I took a look at his defensive positions the past 2 seasons where his bat started to take off, making him a more viable prospect. He played 33 games at 2B in 2022 and 35 games at 3B according to Baseball Reference, split between 2 levels. In 2023, he played 21 games at 2B and 64 games at 3B, 20 games as a DH, and 15 games at 1B all in AAA. It's a clear indication that he can't handle 2B, or has simply outgrown the position. But it also tells me the FO believes he can still be an OK 3B, potentially. And if that's true, if he can be "acceptable" at 3B, that increases his overall value as a prospect. Just tossing it out there as something of interest.

Agreed. No disrespect to Schobel, but when they drafted him so early, I thought it was a cost saving move for Lee and Prielipp and maybe someone else later on. But then he signed for a little over $1M, and I guessed they just really liked Schobel as yet ANOTHER 2B/utility player with a decent bat. And there's nothing wrong with adding a player like that. That kind of player is valuable. And IDK, but MAYBE Schobel is considered a better SS option than Keaschall??? But the 2023 draft was VERY deep due to covid. And I think Keaschall is just a bigger, maybe more powerful and faster than Schobel? It's just interesting that they were drafted in almost the same spot a year apart, and very similar players. They're a year apart, but I could see both ending 2024 at the same level potentially. And I think both have the kind of "quiet" skill set that never makes them TOP prospects, but just very good "ballplayers" who can do a bit of EVERYTHING well. I like both kids based on what they've done so far, and both have surprised me so far. Assuming they both stick with the Twins and aren't moved at some point in the future, I see Keaschall playing some OF, and I'm not sure I see that in Schobel. But they could be a hell of a utility bench pair in a couple of years!

Great write up! Thanks! I really feel I know him much better than I did from the initial reports. Initially, I thought he was a E Rodriguez "light" with less speed. Very different in approach at the plate as E-Rod is maybe too passive at times, while Gonzalez is a free swinger who might need to reign things in. But they are both powerful and a pair of 19-20yo olds who have really flashed in A ball while being quite young. But I agree that now I see him as a Eddie Rosario comp with a better arm, a little more power, and less speed. Obviously, the concern is him swinging at everything, similar to Rosario, as well as Miranda before he leaned better swing control. What I really like is the bat to ball skills are there. And his splits seem to indicate he's going to be just fine against RH pitchers. I think it's a lot easier to guide a kid with great contact ability to reign in his approach with more patience, than it is to develop a high K batter who swings and misses a ton. I think the floor is low, but the ceiling is a powerful RH bat who plays a corner OF spot with a good arm who probably never walks a lot, but puts the ball in play with an OK AVG, not a great OB%, but legit 30 double and 30 HR power. He's definitely a top 10 prospect right now, though 4-7 in the Twins system right now. And that's pretty darn good.