DocBauer

One thing that fascinates me about various trade options presented here, and elsewhere, is the "largeness" of the presentations. Gray has basically been a #1-2 most of his career, never worse than a really good #3. And we got him for 2yrs for a rookie #1 draft selection in Petty. Now, Petty has some great potential, but an 18yo complete unknown for Gray was pretty crazy. And while Arraez is a wonderful ballplayer, and a fan favorite, he brought back a young-ish #3 rotation arm with upside who had flashed at times. Forget anyone else thrown in, Arraez for Lopez straight up was a solid deal. So why is everything 3 of the Twins top prospects or a couple of them and a current player...or two...for a SP? I keep looking at past FO moves and I keep thinking they will make a "smaller" move of 1 or 2 players/prospects for a Miller from Seattle, or Cabrera from Miami, or similar that is young and in whom they see upside. We just don't know what other teams wants are. I can easily see someone wanting Polanco over Julien or Lee, for example, and for different reasons. I can see the Twins moving one of them, but not more. I can see moving one of Wallner, or Rodriguez, but not both. And as greatly talented as Rodriguez is, Wallner might be the "safer" of the two for the Twins to keep. Just saying, I would be surprised if the FO made a headlining move, and would more expect something like the Gray or Lopez kind of trade, that might even work out as good or better, and cost less. Honestly, I almost want/expect a bounce back option like Giolito for upside return, or the best 2nd tier SP FA they like to deepen and stabalize the rotation while banking on a full return of Paddack and improvement from Ryan and Ober, and THEN use left over $ and some trade options...like Polanco...to add a bat, settle CF, or add a piece to the pen.

There are 4 spots on the 40 man right now, and at.least 1 or 2 trades will take place, and I'm pretty sure 1 or 2 FA will be signed come January, first of February. Even still, a couple guys will probably come off the 40 man in trades, so all arms listed in the OP are probably safe to begin 2024. But most of them have a tenuous hold on a job based on 2023, to be sure. Balazovic was a top 100 prospect coming off of his 2021 and headed in to 2022. That wasn't long ago. Good velocity, great breaking ball, OK change, just needed some polish. Then a bad ankle he tried to throw through, awful numbers, lack of control, etc, though he looked better and healthier at the close of '22. He arrived early last year, fit and ready to go. I have no clue to what degree his broken jaw incident affected him. He looked pretty solid initially, tossed some good innings, but finished awful at both levels. STILL, a top 100 player just 2 seasons ago doesn't go away this soon. 100% to begin camp this year, a season to begin an adjustment to the pen, you keep that arm and work with it for 2024. Winder is almost as disappointing as Balazovic. Part of his issue has been shoulder problems that initiated the pen move. The slider is there. But despite sitting 95 ish comfortably and hitting 97 pretty consistently, his FB keeps getting drilled. But as I recall, late last year he was throwing more of a sinker, at the same velocity, and getting much better results. If he can continue down that path, he'll have K's and ground balls to make him a quality pen option. But time is not on his side. The thing about Sands is, he threw way better than either Balazovic or Winder, but between level bouncing and sitting on the Twins bench for a week at a time, often, without being used, he wasn't given a chance to really develop/acclimate to his new role in the pen. Somehow, he still tossed around 50 IP, and while not exactly good, his numbers were better than Balazovic or Winder. His FB plays up some in the pen and his curveball is just NASTY. He hasn't stepped forward yet, but he's also been handled oddly and 2024 was his initial "conversion" season. I'm actually a little optimistic to see what he might do this upcoming season. In regard to Brent Headrick, he wasn't really supposed to pitch for the Twins this season, or at least, not as much as he did. He split 2022 between A+ (2/3) and AA (1/3). He was dominate at A and OK at AA. But he showed enough potential the Twins added him to the 40 man. He had a nice spring and a solid start to the season, flashing at times. The opposition must have figured him out as his 2nd half wasn't very good, for the most part, beyond a couple flashes here and there. But as a rookie with a 1/3 of a AA season under his belt to begin with, I'm not sure what was expected. He obviously needs to make adjustments. I'd like to see the St Paul rotation deep enough he wouldn't be needed there and just let him pitch out of the pen. I think he's shown enough potential to believe he might have a solid future there. But he's in no danger of being let go any time soon. Never been a fan of SWR as I just never saw what the scouts did to make him such a top draftee/prospect. (As if I'm any kind of expert). He made me a believer following 2022. Looked like he was really settling in and taking a step forward. So what the hell happened in 2023? He was basically awful. What happened? He did start to look much, much better after he began to follow an opener. And IIRC, his last few appearances were again as a primary starter. His last couple of months give me hope again, and he's still too young to be impatient with at this time, but he'd better regain his previous form or he's moving to the pen in '25. Again, nobody going anywhere just yet, there's still some good stuff in all of them to want to keep working with for now. But the original order of the OP is about right in who goes 1st, though there might be some debate between Balazovic and Winder. Since they have been mentioned previously as well, Alcala gets 2024 to prove himself once and for all. Pre injury, he gave the appearance of someone finally settling in to his role in 2021. Two lost years will really dampen an outlook, but looking healthy for the first time in a while and with his velocity back up in to the high 90's to close out last season, he was a smart add to the 40 man. I'm still surprised by the removal of Henriquez, especially over some of the other arms discussed. He's younger and began last year recovering from an injury. Did they just draw a name out of a cap? Plus, he seemed to finish '23 pretty strong. Remember an OP here on TD about whether he deserved a promotion? I haven't heard anything about him re-signing or going elsewhere, but I'd like to see him back with the Saints, healthy, and given a chance to see if he can take another step.

Sad to see Maeda go. He seemed like a great teammate, and when he was healthy, he was a damn fine pitcher for us. From end of June this past season through the end of the year he was excellent. I think he could have helped and $12M would have been a bargain. I do think the Twins are looking for younger, even better, and controlled for a couple more years, if at all possible. And I get not wanting to go 2yrs at this point for a team looking to make that kind of addition and expecting to make playoff noise for 2024 and beyond. Still, now they need to find a way to make that happen.

I'm really torn on this idea. It's probably his last season in a Twins uniform, so there is the thought to get something for him before losing him. And yes, his trade value has never been higher than right now. Well, OK, maybe after 2019, but still. On the other had, from about mid to late June on he was the best version of himself he's probably ever been. I haven't forgotten the really poor 2 1/2 years before then, to be sure, but 3 plus months isn't just a SSS that he made actual adjustments to his game. We already have questions about CF. While I think Wallner has a pretty bright future, he's still going in to his 2nd season, first full year. Larnach isn't proven yet. Martin might not be quite ready. Castro is best as the super utility player he was last year. Gordon is what exactly after a horrendous and injured 2023 but a good 3 months in '22? All other prospects are at least a year away, though there's a couple late bloomers who might be ready to help. So now we want to put another hole in the OF besides CF? I can see reasons to move both Polanco and Kepler. I just see less available replacement options for Kepler. I do think someone needs to give Larnach a real shot, which is why I've been looking to include him in deals to a team looking for LH power. A healthy Larnach, playing almost daily against RHP, could probably crank out a .225-.235 BA and 20 HR and 30 Dbls even without the improvements we've been hoping for, and that he flashes at the end of 2023. Is it possible we're going to get the opportunity to see that in '24? But then again, if Kepler is gone, we probably need to add a RH bat too, right? To balance things out? What's that going to cost? How much do we even save once Max's $10M is gone and we sign a RH depth piece? Or is this not about saving any $, just his LF bat and defense to a contending team that has pitching to spare? There's just so many balls spinning in the air right now to build the 2024 Twins that I hope the FO can juggle them all, and keep an eye on them all so one doesn't drop.

He could be a great fit and a similar success story as Lopez. The Angels just look like a dumpster fire to me. They traded prospects for rentals when they were a bit of a longshot to make the playoffs, then dumped everyone, are going to lose Ohtani, and rumors persist that Trout might be moved for the team to re-build. And part of the reason they dumped everyone was to lower payroll enough to get a better pick when Ohtani signs with someone. They might like a package like Wallner and Raya as part of a re-build. They might like a different package. But the cost seems relatively fair, but maybe a little high on the Twins side? Not sure Kepler's status beyond 2024, and without Wallner, I'm suddenly worried about the OF. Not saying Wallner is guaranteed to develop in to a stud, but I like what I've seen so far and don't want to strip the OF. Maybe a 3 for 1 and go a little lower in the system for a re-building Angels team? Think I'm adding the Angels to Seattle and Miami on my list of good fit trade team options.

Suwinski is interesting for sure. But are the Pirates really looking to move on from a talented young player that might be part of a better future that begins over the next couple of seasons? I think not. I'm interested in Edman, despite being a little older at 28, as he can hit a little, shows a little pop, and can run, and is a switch hitter. It's interesting that he can play the middle INF as well. But if he just added CF to his defensive repertoire, how good is he there? I mean, it sounds like we already have this guy in Castro. That's not a bad thing as maybe we could use 2 of the same player. But.... All the rest sound like guys who can't hit at the ML level, or have forgotten how to. So why not just turn to Martin, trust in him, and see what he can do after his bounce back 2023. Will he be worse than the other guys? Rumor has it the Brewers are about 4 deep at CF and may have some interesting options to move.

First, I have to object to the idea of Polanco being "dumped" for a disappointing return. If he's moved, he can be used for a SP or CF in different proposal combinations. He's not some toss in player. If he were, then why would we be debating about even keeping him. Further, even if he were traded for prospects, they might be used as part of a deal, or as replacements for other prospects we shipped out in a deal. I love Polanco and am in no hurry to move him. But someone is probably going to go as part of a deal, and it's probably him. But if he's with the Twins next season, I like him playing some 1B for depth, at least. I think he can handle the spot from an athletic perspective. I still think/hope AK is the primary 1B. Could be interesting to see Polanco be a RH 1B option with Farmer taking over 2B on days against a LHP. But I just don't know if the budget can afford to keep both. (Castro can also help in this scenario). There are so many possibilities open at the moment that projection of a final roster is almost impossible right now. But I have my doubts Polanco is going to remain a Twin much longer. But if he is, playing at least some 1B makes sense for depth.

I'd rather he get 350 AB. Every day against LHP, being a PH, but still a decent enough bat he can also play against RHP at times. Think he made $7M in 2023? Not sure that's affordable, unless some other contracts are moved. But he'd be a nice part of the plan and only cost $ and not prospects.

We got outstanding game calling and defense from the catcher spot last season. Also got a lot of offense, even with Vazquez having a down year. I like the potential of Carmago a lot, but I don't know that handing the rookie a job is the smart thing to do. Especially if someone doesn't pick up all, or most of the tab on Vazquez. Otherwise, you basically weaken your depth to save a couple million? I can guarantee moving him isn't the issue. The league isn't brimming with quality, experienced catchers. Someone could use hum and would love to have him. But, what are they willing to give up for the remaining $20M? I get the idea here. I just don't know if I like it.

Glasnow has never started more than 14 games UNTIL he was coming back from surgery and then started 21. So he's suddenly a late 20's blooming #1/2 SP who can be counted on for 28-30 GS and 160+ IP for $25M on a 1yr deal? HARD PASS. He's super talented, but nobody is going to grab him except for one of the large market teams that can afford to just lose $ if his health craters again. Arozarena fits what this team needs in a RH OF bat, even though it would be nice if he could also play 1B. But as much as we could use another RH bat, and need to find one SOMEWHERE to help, SP and CF are still the biggest issue. All of these ideas about some huge 1yr bat and 1yr SP option for big contracts and big prospect payouts are just finger exercises.

Honestly, I'm having a difficult time understanding some of the trade values presented here. 1yr of Alonso for Sabato and the potential of Mercedes? All day long! Almost imperceptible he could be any sort of re-sign, but he'd be an All Star addition for 1yr to "buy time" for other young talent to further develop. But even if the FO could work in his $14+M while still needing a rotation add, plus adding a CF option, would the Mets really be willing to part from him for that? They practically print ML money, and might want to re-tool, but I can't imagine they are in a complete salary dump re-build mode. Goldschmidt isn't going anywhere. He's also expensive and 1yr. I also like the Drury fit for 1yr. The salary fits. I don't know about position flexibility as he's seldom played anything other than 1B or DH for a couple of years now. Like the "ridiculous" idea of adding Alonso, IMO, he's a possible 1yr fit, but a better re-sign option. BUT, we're in a twilight zone in regard to CF and DH and Buxton. A 1yr option at 1B and DH makes a ton of sense until you start to look at the INF along with Buxton. And this also applies to Mountcastle as well, even if the prospect capital is cheap, what is the future benefit? Do the Twins just bank on Buxton for X number of games in CF and add a power bat at 1B in case AK has issues and they can't count on other RH options? What is the 2024 endgame to build a roster? SP and CF seems to be the most important areas to address first. The faint idea of a pen arm is always there, whether Pagan comes back, or a different arm sure seems like a logical place to spend a little $ ax well. I'd LOVE another RH bat to add. But unless GIFTED a strong bat like the OP suggests, I believe the Twins will, and need to, trust in what they have, and develop it. For depth, if nothing else, they need a SP. And how many more posts can we have about what the FO might do? Still need to add to CF, at least in the short term, while working with Martin, getting as much as we can from Buxton, etc. IDEALLY, the Twins would sign or trade for someone who could bat RH and play the OF and 1B, if not other spots. Because that's how the roster is constructed as of now. I have no idea who that might be, but I'm looking more and more at Martin and Helman to do that, and work more towards a SP and CF option. These are all really nice options if the payroll for 2024 was maintained, at least, or bumped. But that's a different discussion.

On the surface, this idea makes a lot of sense. But when you look deeper, I just don't like it. 1] I was on the bandwagon to move on from Kepler last season, despite being an immense fan, after a good 2 1/2 seasons of mediocre to poor performance. But SOMETHING changed in Max's approach last season, and it wasn't due to the shift. He suddenly began to "see" the ball better and hit the damn thing hard. The results were line drives all over the field...sometimes over the wall...instead of weak contact and the occasional HR. Mentally...and perhaps a physical adjustment took place...it's as if he FINALLY realized he had enough power to do damage without simply trying to hit HR. And while I really like Wallner, and believe in his potential/future, I'm not ready to have him "replace" Kepler just yet offensively or defensively. The lineup has potential, but was a problem at times in 2023, and I'm not ready to risk losing offense at this point. 2] While it's very possible Cortez's shoulder injury is mild, and similar to Lopez's previous issues, I'm a bit more concerned about shoulders than I am elbows. (Which is kind of a crazy thing to say). Lopez found greater velocity with the Twins, and a new breaking ball, but he ALWAYS threw harder than Cortez. He also had more time as a SP, more IP, and was/is a couple years younger. Straight up for Larnach maybe? I'd be interested. NOT as a Gray replacement, but rather, a "prospect" with talent and potential that might fit in the Yankees lineup as a LH power option and the Twins get a #4 rotation option with some upside. That's about it for me.

Arguably the best catcher in MLB for about an 8yr stretch, multiple All Star, Silver Slugger, and Gold Gloverz and did a couple things no catcher has every done in history, like 3 batting titles. Absolute 1st ballot HOF in my opinion.

Not going to add to the Lee/Julien debate. There's too much to like about both to say you need to keep at least one. Lee, switch hitter, not quite there, but really close. Julien might be more dynamic as a batter, but less defensively. The roster doesn't die with either gone, because we have the other, and potentially the very good Polanco still available for 2 more years. Stated in another thread that I think Seattle is a good partner for a trade. Does that trade include Gilbert or Kirby? And the cost is large. Or is it possible the Twins see something they really like in Miller, or the other mentioned arms of Hancock and Woo? AND, are the Twins looking for a more finished arm vs one needing a little more "work" but filled with potential? And we don't know what the FO is thinking about the quality and potential of those other arms. But Seattle has a pipeline in place right now, and need offense. They also might be losing one of their better RH bats from last year as well. I'm looking at this from the Mariners' perspective. Polanco is cost controlled for 2yrs and is a quality defender at 2B, and a quality person and performer. Larnach is an OK corner OF with a big arm. He's flashed, but has also struggled. But he's also shown enough that with 500 plate appearances, he could easily stroke 20HR and 30Dbls, even as a lower third bat if given the chance. IMO, the Mariners want bats that can help NOW, but considering the relative youth of their staff, they'd want a couple prospects as well. That's where discussion of E-Rod takes place. But there's also possible interest in Severino and a healthy and rebounding Miranda, and maybe a young bat like Mercedes to toss in, or the recent A+ MVP Rosario? Severino is close. A healthy Miranda is already here. How much value do they want to place on a couple bats a couple years away? Seattle can afford to trade a quality arm, the same way Miami could last year in Lopez. And they need bats. The Twins can offer bats, and some future bats. The organizations SEEM to be a fit. The question becomes cost. Julien/Lee AND E-Rod with some others lower in the system might be a little too steep from the Twins perspective and might have them looking at Miller. And I keep thinking about the Marlins again and previously posted ideas of Edward Cabrera, young and talented, that might come a little cheaper. If I'm Seattle, I'd be really tempted to move one of my arms for Polanco and Larnach if I had a really nice sweetener in the deal. I'm trying to win NOW, but I want something more for one of my rotation arms. Rodriguez and Rosario are a couple years away, but tantalizing. Severino, on the other hand, has some of the same question marks they do, but is closer, is a switch hitter, and might have more flexibility for my roster. I'm holding out for Rodrigez or maybe Rosario, if I'm moving Gilbert or Kirby. I'm settling for less in regard to Miller or other. But if the Twins say no to E-Rod, but you get Polanco, Larnach, Severino, and your choice of Miranda or Mercedes for Gilbert/Kirby, I make the move. And then I pause for a moment and ask for BOTH Miranda and Mercedes. I want bats NOW. And I get that. And I get a high talent international signing that hasn't hit his upside yet, but he's a talented 5th player throw on. I have a deep staff and system in place. I just added a stud 2B switch hitting, contact, powerful, clutch hitting 2B. And I added an OK defensive OF with power and potential who was a TOP prospect recently, and has shown flashes. These help me win NOW. THEN, I've either added a 21yo top power hitting prospect who's a couple years away, OR, I've added another switch hitter with relatively equal splits and big time HR power who is just about ready to contribute at, potentially, 3 spots even though there might be some contact issues. And the Twins even threw in a talented milb OF prospect. Just me rambling tonight. The partners make sense. But I'm not in charge of either FO. Maybe the Twins pay less for Miller. Maybe they dial up the Marlins again and get a talented arm like Cabrera for less, work with him, and look brilliant for a smaller trade that turned out huge for the Twins. It seems the Mariners and Twins SHOULD be ideal partners. But I guess we'll see.

A couple question to toss out there to get opinions on first: 1] IF Giolito is healthy, and if we take for granted...at still only 29yo...that his 3yr run from 2019-2021 and the first 3-4 months of 2023 us the REAL Giolito, would it make more sense to sign him and either keep our prospects, or, trade a few for additional help elsewhere? 2] While the OP lists some really good arms, another thread mentioned Edward Cabrera from the Marlins, and SOMEONE else I can't recall now as a pair of top young arms that need some work but have tremendous stuff. Might they be smarter adds that could cost less to get and "work up" similar to Lopez? Just asking is all. I think a trade with the Mariners makes the most sense. They need bats, and reportedly, LH bats in particular. I'd be offering Polanco and Larnach as starting points. Polanco is obvious as a proven producer. Larnach needs opportunity to play, and maybe a change of scenery. If he got 500 plate appearances, and only hit .225-.230, I think he might be good for 20HR and 30 Dbls. From there, it would depend some on what the Mariners need/like/want. Severino isn't fully proven yet, but is a switch hitter with big time power and at least some positional flexibility. E-Rod is a tantalizing prospect to be sure, but is further away. Could Rosario interest them, despite also being a couple years away? How about Miranda, healthy again, interest them as a RH power bat just a season removed from looking like a keeper? Maybe someone like Mercedes as a longer range prospect with tools as a 4th bat in the deal? With their arms, and arms coming up, seems to me a package of 3 or 4 various bats and future bats might well supplement their roster today and tomorrow. I think there's enough available to them to bring back either Gilbert or Kirby. Is it possible the Twins really like the potential of Miller as much and he'd come back a little cheaper? Seattle makes the most sense to me, as long as they aren't looking for something like 2 top 10 bats and a throw in, or a Polanco/Julien, PLUS E-Rod, AND another top 10. I also like Keller from the Pirates in a more "balanced" trade where they would be looking for a combination of talent to build, various bats and arms from the 40 man and system. Manoah scares me a little, and I'm out if I have even a hint of a headache involved. Blackburn does nothing for me, or the Twins, IMO. Burnes ONLY if acquiring him INCLUDES a new deal. Otherwise, we're potentially right back where we started this time next year. Seattle, or Pittsburgh, OR, looking at someone like Cabrera from Miami, or similar, that has flashed the talent, and might be ready to take the next step with the Twins coaching.

Alonso is a great ballplayer, no question. And I'd love him, the lineup could use him, and the Twins would love to have a player of his ability. I am NOT saying anyone on the Twins will be as good as him, but, there are some guys like Lewis and Kirilloff that have a chance to be regular, heart of the order type of hitters with 22-35HR power to go along with solid AVG and OB ability. (Wallner to a degree as well maybe??) And they are all younger and more cost controlled. I'm not 100% on Rodriguez just yet as there are some contact concerns, despite high OB ability and general youth and potential. But he is exciting. And I would have to move him in a deal for a top of rotation arm with some control, not 1yr of a top bat. Alonso for 3yrs? I'd make E-Rod as part of a package. But no to any sort of 1yr proposal. I'm adding pitching and keep working with and developing my young bats.

A fully healthy Trivino for the pen could interest me. He could make sense. Turnbull on a milb deal for depth could be interesting. Would he be available on one? Woodruff, when healthy, has been an outstanding starter. But he's hurt often, and now he's coming off shoulder surgery. $2M to rehab in '25 and a deal for $8-10M in 2025 with incentives to get him to $12M or so would be tempting. But would we rather trust in Mahle coming off TJ or Woodruff coming off shoulder surgery IF the Twins were to do a split 2yr deal for someone? I just don't see anyone else on this list better than what the Twins already have, or that fit a need.

Rosario began the season with high A Cedar Rapids as a 20yo and didn't turn 21yo until July 2nd, roughly half way through the year. His quad slash line was as follows: .252/ .367/ .467/ .831 Yes, he strikes out more than you'd like, and he will need to curb that, or at least not see his K % rise. But a .367 OB% at A+ as a 20/21yo? I'll take that all day long! Oh, and a .831 SLG% which was 27 Dbls, 3 Trips, and 21 HR. He accounted for 94 RBI and won the league MVP honors. As a follow up, he went to the AFL and over 4 weeks cracked 7 HR and won the HR tournament. Oh, and despite the hits not falling in and batting only .214 he still maintained a .333 OB%. He's got a ways to go, but I'm very excited about this kid. All he's showing is great potential! What kid his age and experience...generally speaking...doesn't have some things to keep working on?

Really stinks about Moran. I had hopes of 3 LH in the pen. Henriquez is still pretty young and seemed to finish last season strong, so I'm pretty surprised about removing him. Wouldn't mind a milb deal to keep him around. They need some open spots for signings and potential trade acquisitions. But with 4 spots right now, I wouldn't be shocked to see them grab a rule 5 pen arm.

A really great piece! Thank you for the detailed dive. Always liked reading Arif's stuff. The thing about analytics is they aren't new, they've just come to the forefront more the past decade or so. Decade after decade MLB had platooned players, changed out pitchers, sat guys, and played guys because they knew someone hit LHp better, or hit a certain pitcher better, or conversely, a pitcher might own a certain batter, or destroy hitters from one side of the plate but not the other, etc, etc. That's analytics. The difference is certain individuals began to dig much deeper in to the subject and discovered trends never before explored, or at least, never in depth. For instance, I think most of us understand BATTING AVERAGE can be empty without power, or speed, or run production. But we've also come to understand that OB% and OPS are often a better definition of just how good/productive a player is. I don't know if pulling Berrios in game 2 was smart or not. I'm sure there was a logical, well thought out decision made based on analytics from somewhere. At one point last year, the Twins were the worst team in MLB against LHP. Several teams brought in marginal LH arms mid game and they just OWNED the Twins. Now, that changed as the season went along. And that's the one problem I have with analytics, relying on them too much at times. The pulling of Berrios made a certain amount of sense based on numbers and some history. But recent history would have shown the Twins much improved against LH arms, therefore, things like instinct and experience should have told the Jay's to leave Berrios in longer. My opinion anyway. Being strong in analytics is the way to go. Being as informed as you can be as an organization helps with everything from drafting players to in game decisions. I just think there remains a place where you discount them based on what your eyes tell you and what experience says to you.

I briefly mentioned Martin, along with the non-listed Camargo and Severino, in my previous post, but I wanted to address the actual OP for a moment: JENKINS had about the best debut you could hope for. Personally, there is this little voice in my head that keeps asking, "could the 5th pick in the draft really be this good"? And I think that's just me trying to accept the fact that the 2023 draft was so top heavy with outstanding prospects that it's difficult to accept he might have been the #1 or #2 pick almost any other year. Our current FO has been far more aggressive with promotions, but they seem very calculated as well. I wouldn't be shocked if he went directly to Cedar Rapids to begin 2024, but a return to Ft Myers seems logical. Right now, I'd expect a mid year promotion, and a chance for AA Wichita for a few weeks just to get acclimated. Majors at 21yo in 2025? Hurray! But I'd be ecstatic if he was there at 22yo in 2026. I'm just being practical, not pessimistic. LEE will be up in 2024 at some point. IDEALLY, EVERYONE would be healthy and producing and we'd be screaming as to why he isn't being brought up NOW when he's raking at AAA. The whole 2B/3B issue with Lewis will resolve itself, no worries. RODRIGUEZ, well, other than staying healthy, the only thing I want to see is a better HIT TOOL taking place. With a good eye, and great power, it's my belief that his biggest "adjustment" will be being more aggressive in his AB's. It's one thing to lay off pitches and get BB, which he does a ton. As he gets to AA and above, he's going to see pitchers who fill the zone better. He actually reminds me a lot of Julien: the ability to work a count, look for a pitch, take the BB when it's there. It's a passive-aggressive approach. But he's going to have to adjust his ability to "trigger" his swing more often as he faces those better arms going forward. If he can do that, he's going to be special, even with a mix of K's and BB. RAYA has been a focus of mine since the day he was drafted. He was my favorite selection in the weird 2020 draft. SOMETHING about attitude, stuff, level of competition, mindset, etc, told me we got a steal! For various reasons, his career got off to a slow start. His development this past season has me confused and enthralled at the same time. With missed time to a delay in his debut, and how young he is, why in hell is he at AA already, throwing 3-4 innings at a time? And then you see box scores and look at video of his stuff and your jaw almost drops. It's somewhat reminiscent of how the Twins nurtured Ober in his rookie season. They believe in him so much, and his stuff, that they are challenging him. At the same time, they are building his arm and experience slowly. I would be more than happy, at his age, if he spent the entire year at AA to just build up his arm, gain experience, deal with a couple bumps in the road, and hopefully be ready for AAA in 2025. FESTA is one of my favorite prospects. And maybe I'm misguided in my hopes. He's long...which leads to some deception and added velocity...and has some good stuff, gets knocked around here and there, and just keeps getting better as he adjusts. I just never have believed in hyping pitching prospects as #1 or ACE arms unless you are lucky enough to draft a Clemmons or Strasburg type of arm. I've seen way too many hyped arms never turn out, and too many mid round arms turn out to be All Stars to buy in to the hype. And while Festa could stand to add some muscle/bulk, and like any young pitcher he needs to continue to harness his stuff, he just keeps getting better. Really hoping he doesn't appear at all in 2024 because the rotation is so healthy, OR, he doesn't have to appear until later in the season to just give him a little more development time. He's almost a "no trade" prospect for me. SOTO is exciting! He impressed the hell out of me in his draft day interviews. The kid actually attended the draft the previous year just to get a feel for what the future might hold for him. He's so very young, but mature, intelligent, grounded in family, faith, and community. A class kid. And he's already got a perfect frame at 18yo and throws high 90's. And I fully understand he's got a LONG WAY to go before he might reach MLB. But could you ask for a better HS draft choice to mold and work with? He doesn't have injuries, he's still 5yrs away unless he just rocks his development. So 2028 sounds right, with a possible debut late in '27. WINOKER is a freak athlete. How can you be that large of a human being and still be athletic enough to play SS? Of course, he's not going to stay there. Don't take this the wrong way, but he reminds me a bit of Gallo, BUT also reminds me some of Judge. He's going to eventually end up at one of the 4 corner spots, though I'm doubting 3B. He's got speed and power and the kind of athleticism you don't normally see in a HS kid, which is why the Twins spent over slot for him. Even IF he ends up at 1B at some point...only because there might be even better corner OF on the roster because this kid can actually run well...he could be special in the way Jenkins is. What?! How can I say that and compare the two? Because athletically they are very similar. But Winoker has more bust than Jenkins, even with a lot of boom potential. IMO, it's ALL ABOUT bat to ball. If Winoker can take all of his potential and just put the bat on the ball constantly, with his power, allowing for K's, he could be a very good ballplayer. IMO, it's ALL about bat to ball. KEASCHALL and SCHOBEL, IMO, are the same player. Both drafted in similar rounds, and similar profiles. I've heard reports/ideas that Keaschall might have more speed, and MIGHT be a CF option in the future. Regardless, both are "ballplayers" who would seem to have the ability to hit, get OB, provide some power and speed, and play almost anywhere. And depending on how good they actually DO hit and produce, either could be a quality ML starter, or quality utility player. I think both of these guys could be the next Spencer Steer. And I think that's what the Twins see in them. I think a 2025 ML appearance is probably about right. But is that as a utility or fill in? Or is it a "too good" to not give a full time job and allow the trade of someone else? It's a couple of years away, but it's sure nice to see the depth. IMO, what's missing here is the development of Rosario? How great is it that we're actually trying to figure out what to do with all of this talent over the next couple of seasons. If we want to worry about pitching beyond Raya and Festa, just wait until 2024 is done and we are looking at what the 2022 draft has provided.

This! We just had a major wave of quality prospects hit with Lewis, Julien, Wallner, and I still include Kiriilloff in that group. Ryan and Ober hit a year or so earlier. I do believe Martin is now riding a nice trajectory that began late in 2022 and will be up at some point. How soon, and how permanent is TBD. Same with Lee. It's just a matter of when, and figuring out he and Lewis at 3B/2B. Camargo will get his first opportunity at some point. Jeffers and Vazquez are well built, tough dudes, but to expect both to be 100% in back to back years is probably unrealistic. It's my hope that Severino will continue to adapt to AAA, hit the ball hard, maintain a .270 ish AVG, but lower the K rate some, raise his BB a little bit, and prove to be a keeper. But I'm OK if he spends most of 2024 at St Paul working on those things. He's only 24yo and lack of opportunity this coming season would mean AK is healthy. But if the likes of Helman, Prato and Kiersey are NOT selected...or returned...they are the kind of roster fills that can be important. I think Helman and Prato are more ready for a shot than Kiersey, but I'm not dismissing any of these three. Helman and Prato are similar that they can play all over and have shown they might have a sound, all around game. Prato might be a little better hitter and OB guy, Helman a little more power and speed. Keirsey is a true OF, and a fine one defensively, who might be a 4th OF type who is a legitimate CF option. I'm not expecting anything special from any of them. But then again, look at the development of Castro as an important role player last season. And I've been pretty overt in my HOPE for Helman to step forward as a late bloomer who can find a role. But he has literally improved each of the past 3yrs, can fill in at 7 spots, and has speed and power. And he's also a RH bat. If his HIT ability can play at the ML level, he's an inexpensive addition to Castro across the field and in the lineup. And that's not to diminish the potential of Prato as a Farmer type replacement.

In general, I agree with you here. 1B is the easiest spot to fill overall. And I still have a lot of faith/hope that Kirilloff is going to man that spot for years to come. I'm, of course, relieved that his shoulder injury/procedure was not bad. And unless something was hidden from us, I never heard a single word that his wrist wasn't 100%. I watched a lot of Julien at 2B last year and it was rather bizarre. He was hesitant or sloppy on plays that often seemed routine, and then would make a very nice play when it was harder/quicker, and more reaction based. The last couple of months, I saw a great deal of improvement from him there, and feel pretty comfortable with him at 2B going forward, at least when it comes to lineup versatility. I don't agree with him being a primary 1B as I think/believe that's for AK. But I think he should be worked in there as I think he can handle it on an occasional basis. (Still holding out some hope he MIGHT be "good enough" at tracking the ball to play a little LF at some point). I'm a little worried about a healthy body and mind rebound from Miranda at 1B. I sure haven't given up on him. He looked like he was still trying to figure out the position in 2022, but he did look smoother as the season went along. I'm just not sure the FO is feeling comfortable at 1B right now for all the obvious reasons. And it IS a spot where a big bad COULD be added. I just don't think the $ is available to add a lot there right now. Maybe a better than Solano kind of RH bat that's not expensive? The problem with AK and Julien there is a RH balance.

I'd like to add that I'm a bit confused when I read comments, from various places, that Castro is better in the OF than the INF. (Not everyone, but I've read it various times). I thought he looked good to great at 3B. I can't recall getting to watch him much at 2B, but he looked solid the few games I did. And while I certainly don't want him to play a lot of SS, and would prefer Farmer there if possible, I saw a handful of games late in the season when he was there and he looked just fine to me, even made a couple tough plays. I think he's undervalued in the INF by some.

I can't disagree with you, IF, Gordon rebounds and looks like his 2nd half in 2022. BUT, I think the bench is better with a RH bat to replace Gordon and bring a little more balance to the roster. I'm not sure who that might be, it's still very early to speculate, but I'm just not sure if the Twins can add a BIG bat when they have to sort out CF, and address a rotation addition. I may be reaching, but I keep hoping someone like Helman might be added who can play everywhere and provide a little bit of everything with his offensive game.