Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

DocBauer

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    12,491

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    60

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by DocBauer

  1. DocBauer
    I'm intrigued. A few bullet points. 1] I love, appreciate, and want as much good defense as I can get out of all of my players. I also want and appreciate positional flexibility. That being said, I'll take the better offensive player every time if it's even close. 2] There's been some debate about how much TOTAL $ is coming back to the Twins in the Polanco deal. But suffice it to say, current payroll sits between $115-118M. If we are to believe educated estimates of $125-140M as acceptable 2024 payroll, the Twins have POTENTIALLY $22-25M to spend. POTENTIALLY. Now, as to Soler, he's good. He's been inconsistent in his career, and I just have a hard time trusting a rebound season right before becoming a FA. But $15M per is NOT a large amount in today's game. I might be on board for 2yrs, but I don't like 3yrs. Too much risk for me, and the Twins, IMO. Career quad slash lines actually favor Soler over Duvall. And he's younger. I pay attention to defensive metrics, but I find them to be arbitrary and never 100%. I like that Duvall can play at least an OK CF. I kinda dismiss Duvall at 1B since he hasn't played it in years, never played it a ton, but I guess he could be expected to do so again in a limited basis. And I don't care if Duvall has almost neutral splits really. I kind of like it as he might be a part time CF option in CF. I'm looking at Duvall as being a regular, but not an every day player, and providing depth. And he still might be a better RH bat against LH pitching than Wallner or Kepler, so what's wrong if he's got neutral splits? Do the Twins want to have someone who is a primary DH unless they are special like Cruz? No. They want that spot open for half days off and to rotate. That isn't just Buxton. That's half days off for anyone and everyone. And it gets more complicated when Lee is ready and you might DH Julien as well. But guys get hurt, there is almost always SOMEONE on the IL, even for something small, so your 13 position player roster is always in flux to some degree. There are checks and balances to the entire roster that give Soler and Duvall edges in this arguement. More defensive flexibility, a 1yr deal, neutral splits, lower cost to MAYBE add a 1B option/bench option to secure that spot better vs even better offense, but higher $ for more years and at least a little less defensive flexibility. Soler might make the most sense if it's 2yr at $14-15 per. Maybe a player opt out after year 1? If it takes a 3rd year, I think I and the Twins are probably out.
  2. DocBauer
    For myself, he's the most intriguing player in the entire system. I say that as Jenkins is simply considered more of a "he's going to do it, it's just a question of how well/great he may do it", and Winokur is maybe as good of an athlete but with more questions. Hence, my personal "most intriguing" label. Power is there. The arm is there. Overall athleticism is there. Above average to good speed is there, though I don't know enough yet to know if we're just talking playing speed to cover ground vs maybe stealing some bases. That's a hell of a base for a 19yo kid to work with! There is absolutely no reason to not keep playing him at SS until he proves he can't, possibly just outgrowing the position. But 3B looks like a good landing spot for him. But why not CF? Good speed, good length, cannon arm, all good qualities for CF unless, again, he just outgrows the position and loses too much speed. But nothing wrong if that happens and he ends up as a powerful corner bat either. (Again, 3B might be a good option as well). But let's be honest, IF he slows down appreciably, and somehow ends up at 1B 5yrs from now, but can hit decently and crank out 30HR, even that would be a great result. It all comes down to bat to ball skills and acceptable BB and K numbers. I understand the initial concerns, but we're talking 17 games from a kid right out of HS at this juncture. But the skills and potential are tantalizing, so I have no problem with him being ranked this high. And as I said in the begining, he's probably the most intriguing position player to me.
  3. DocBauer
    Personally, I have a lot of faith in Kirilloff IF HEALTHY. And that's the crux of it all isn't it? I think any sort of suggestion that he might not "fit in" with the Twins profile is, at best, pre-mature if not misguided. He was brought along slowly in 2023 so that he could rehab his 2nd, and aggressive, wrist surgery. The fact that full, projected, power didn't click in completely is easily explained by getting in a groove, but also just "trusting" his wrist to not come back and bite him. I'd say mission accomplished! Repeating his numbers, .270/ .348/ .419/ .793 and an OPS+ of 117. 26 total XB hits...11 of them HR...in 281 AB. Those are good numbers. Good June, slipped in July, good July again. And then he hurt his shoulder diving for a ball. His wrist appears fine. I think, generally speaking, 1B is a fairly "safe" position unless you're stepped on, or get hurt diving for a ball. Can he recover 100%, and not take a great deal of time to do so, and his shoulder be fine? The Twins value power, and they should. And AK has power. But there is no "sell out" approach by the Twins that they only want K machines with power. That's only part of the equation. You also need some contact bats, good OB% guys, for a mix of approaches. Saying Kirilloff doesn't fit is like saying Arraez wasn't important in their lineup because all he did was get OB foe guys to knock him in. As chpettit19 pointed out, he hit primarily in the 2-4/5 holes because he was hitting, was getting OB, and was showing power and run production. How does a guy like that not fit in? It simply comes down to health. The wrist appears fixed. The reports on his shoulder injury and repair were good. Can he NOW put that injury history behind him for 400-450 AB? If so, he's an important part of the team and at least the immediate future. HOWEVER, there is nothing wrong with Julien being able to also play 1B. There is nothing wrong with the idea of letting Larnach try his hand there in ST to see if he can increase his value by being more flexible. Miranda and Severino may play a part in the future at 1B. That's a good thing, to have that depth. I wouldn't make any sort of major at 1B until or unless I know that AK is going to have further issues. Then it becomes a different ballgame altogether, pun intended. Sign Duvall for the OF. I only grab one of the remaining 1B options out there if the doctors and trainers are feeling concerned at this point. But 2024 might be Kirilloff's most important season.
  4. DocBauer
    Adam Duvall still makes the most sense to me. Does the $ work? Would he do 1 year? Solid bat, and can play all 3 OF spots. And while he has some past injury issues, he needs to be a regular in the Twins lineup, but doesn't have to be an every day player.
  5. DocBauer
    With all due respect to Salano and what he contributed to the 2023 Twins, I'd have a hard time spending anything other than a milb deal for a 36yo utility INF who had his one more moment in the sun. I'd be OK if he's willing for a milb deal because I think that he's only going to get that at this point. There's arguements about the Twins adding a RH bat. That makes sense. But I don't think that bat should be a DH only because the Twins want to keep that spot reserved to run half days off for EVERYONE, including Buxton here and there. Don't get me wrong. If the Twins signed someone like Martinez as a DH the lineup could use him. But the depth and potential depth of this team and lineup doesn't mesh with a DH only player. And I really don't want to spend $ on a throw away guy. Today, right now, a couple weeks before ST. Jorge Soler or Adam Duvall should not only be targets for the Twins, but they semselves should realize the market is not what they hoped for. I like Duval better than Solar because he's just a much better defensive player. If we are spending available payroll to a bat Duvall is my choice. Hands down.
  6. DocBauer
    Just let me say that with afterthought and more reading and reflection, I'm liking the Topa add more and more. I'm not sure where he fits in the pen hierarchy at this time, but if his 2023 is even close to being real and sustainable, I really like his addition to the pen. And that does make the trade better.
  7. DocBauer
    BTW, if you recall, Severino was originally signed as a 2B. Dispensing with his early years with Atlanta and the Twins, I took a look at his defensive positions the past 2 seasons where his bat started to take off, making him a more viable prospect. He played 33 games at 2B in 2022 and 35 games at 3B according to Baseball Reference, split between 2 levels. In 2023, he played 21 games at 2B and 64 games at 3B, 20 games as a DH, and 15 games at 1B all in AAA. It's a clear indication that he can't handle 2B, or has simply outgrown the position. But it also tells me the FO believes he can still be an OK 3B, potentially. And if that's true, if he can be "acceptable" at 3B, that increases his overall value as a prospect. Just tossing it out there as something of interest.
  8. DocBauer
    Agreed. No disrespect to Schobel, but when they drafted him so early, I thought it was a cost saving move for Lee and Prielipp and maybe someone else later on. But then he signed for a little over $1M, and I guessed they just really liked Schobel as yet ANOTHER 2B/utility player with a decent bat. And there's nothing wrong with adding a player like that. That kind of player is valuable. And IDK, but MAYBE Schobel is considered a better SS option than Keaschall??? But the 2023 draft was VERY deep due to covid. And I think Keaschall is just a bigger, maybe more powerful and faster than Schobel? It's just interesting that they were drafted in almost the same spot a year apart, and very similar players. They're a year apart, but I could see both ending 2024 at the same level potentially. And I think both have the kind of "quiet" skill set that never makes them TOP prospects, but just very good "ballplayers" who can do a bit of EVERYTHING well. I like both kids based on what they've done so far, and both have surprised me so far. Assuming they both stick with the Twins and aren't moved at some point in the future, I see Keaschall playing some OF, and I'm not sure I see that in Schobel. But they could be a hell of a utility bench pair in a couple of years!
  9. DocBauer
    Great write up! Thanks! I really feel I know him much better than I did from the initial reports. Initially, I thought he was a E Rodriguez "light" with less speed. Very different in approach at the plate as E-Rod is maybe too passive at times, while Gonzalez is a free swinger who might need to reign things in. But they are both powerful and a pair of 19-20yo olds who have really flashed in A ball while being quite young. But I agree that now I see him as a Eddie Rosario comp with a better arm, a little more power, and less speed. Obviously, the concern is him swinging at everything, similar to Rosario, as well as Miranda before he leaned better swing control. What I really like is the bat to ball skills are there. And his splits seem to indicate he's going to be just fine against RH pitchers. I think it's a lot easier to guide a kid with great contact ability to reign in his approach with more patience, than it is to develop a high K batter who swings and misses a ton. I think the floor is low, but the ceiling is a powerful RH bat who plays a corner OF spot with a good arm who probably never walks a lot, but puts the ball in play with an OK AVG, not a great OB%, but legit 30 double and 30 HR power. He's definitely a top 10 prospect right now, though 4-7 in the Twins system right now. And that's pretty darn good.
  10. DocBauer
    "Correa's condition prompted me to research feet. I scoured the internet, reading peer-reviewed articles, watching massage videos, and listening to Quentin Tarantino interviews to learn everything I could about feet." I about died when I read that. Awesome!
  11. DocBauer
    Whoo hoo! Something to talk about besides the Polanco deal! Lol I'm in the high on Severino camp. I u derstand the K concern, and it's warranted. But he DOES also take some BB. He also hits, and does so from both sides of the plate. That tells me he actually has some bat to ball skills and an idea of what he's doing at the plate. That gives him a solid chance I hope/think. DeAndrade looks promising as a hitter. Every time I read reports last season or checked the box score it seemed like he was doing something good. Seems to have a good idea/approach at the plate and some budding power. Would be nice if he could stay at SS though. He and Miller could make a nice pair of options in the system. I thought Culpepper had a chance to surprise as he was young, played at a small school, and didn't have a lot of experience under his belt yet when drafted. But he's been better, sooner, than I expected. Not worried about his tiring last season as he had previously maxed out at 69 IP in college. I'm only worried if it becomes a trend. Really excited about Rosario's breakout last year. Kid simply PRODUCED. Player of the year, then drills 7 HR in the AFL AND wins the HR competition. Needs to keep his BB up. How quickly and easily does he transition to AA this coming season? He won't turn 22yo until July. This is a big step. I have to admit I was really surprised when they drafted Keachall. I mean, didn't they jutlst draft this same guy in almost the same spit the previous year? Well, yeah, but they may have gotten an even better version of Schobel this year. Not sure there's anything not to like so far from what he's shown. I do hope he's athletic and instinctive enough to keep playing some CF, even if it's just to increase his team roster flexibility. A nice collection of exciting young prospects here in an arm and four very different hitters.
  12. DocBauer
    Jmlease1 completely stole my post! Lol Just going to echo I like have different kinds of arms on the team. Different breaking pitches, different arm angles, etc. And while a bunch of K's are always nice, there can be major rewards from a ground ball pitcher as well, to state the obvious. Keeping a run from advancing, turning double plays, etc. And it looks like he can also get the K's. The quality splits are very nice. The only 1yr factor bothers me. But couldn't we say the same thing about Stewart? But when an arm is healthy and proves itself, one year or not, I tend to have faith in that arm. How good is this pen if Staumont actually recovers from his surgery and looks like his previous Royals self? And that's before a possible/likely Canterino addition at some point.
  13. DocBauer
    I just want to be clear I never said Topa would not help the 2024 Twins. In fact, I called him "a solid pen arm". I think the jury is out as to where he fits in the pen pecking order, but he's a solid add. I'm kind of excited to have him. The fliers I'm referring to are a 23yo A ball arm and Desclafini. Now, if the 2021 Desclafini would show up this season, WOW, the Twins win this deal every day of the week. But he appeared in only 5 games and threw 19 total innings in 2022 due to injury. He got off to a nice start in 2023 before a bad elbow ended up shutting down his season and he underwent plasma rich treatments. At almost 34yo and two poor, injured seasons in a row, doesn't he qualify as a flier? Gonzalez is a nice pick up. So is Topa. If the Twins still find a way to add a quality arm to the rotation, then that changes the complexion of this trade. It's not that the Twins got fleeced by the Mariners, my problem is it didn't fill the #1 need the Twins had entering the off season, and still have, which is a quality rotation arm. And my argument remains if Seattle wanted him that bad, and he was worth their #3 prospect, Topa, $8M in cash, plus an A ball flier and Desclafini, then why didn't the Twins add to Polanco in the trade and pry away one of Seattle's younger, better arms? If the Mariners didn't want to do that no matter what, then maybe Polanco was traded to the wrong team? Again, it's not the Twins getting bad value for Polanco. It's that they moved a really nice player and trade chip without addressing their #1 priority. And that's why I don't like the deal. But you're right, it's my perspective.
  14. DocBauer
    Over night to reflect and ponder and consider other opinions. I'm going to agree with John on this. I still don't like the trade. And the reason I don't like it has nothing to do with the value the Twins got. They got a pen arm that might rival Jax and Stewart, I just don't know enough about his 1 really good season last year to accurately comment. And they got a young, talented top 100 prospect who was Seattle's #3 prospect. They also got $8M thrown in. Adding a low A ball flier and Descalfini as hopefully baseball prayer option to return to his 2021 form aren't even necessary for the Twins to have "won" this trade. The reason I don't like it...and what I think John is saying...is that it doesn't do anything to help 2024. Polanco is still a really good hitter. He's valuable. There's a reason Seattle really wanted him. And he would still have been valuable for the Twins this coming season seeing time at 2B/DH/possibly 1B and occasionally at 3B even. But he was the right guy to move to add a quality arm to the rotation. And I don't have a problem with him being traded. And the package they got back...based on value...was very good. But it didn't fulfill the #1 priority for 2024 that remains adding a high quality arm for the rotation. Whether it be Seattle, Miami, or team X, if Polanco was worth a solid pen arm, a top 100 prospect, $8M in cash, and a couple other flier arms, then why on earth couldn't Polanco and a solid prospect or two be put together for a package to bring in that good arm? Isn't that still the #1 priority for this team? So to me, it's not a "winning value" for the trade. It's about removing a very good hitter from the club and adding a pen arm for 2024 and a cross your fingers and hope rotation arm. Now, if this move is followed by another move for an arm, and this trade assisted in making that happen in any way, I will completely re-think my opinion of the trade. But as it stands at this moment, I don't like it as I don't think it properly addressed 2024 needs and improvements.
  15. DocBauer
    And here I thought you were trying to change my mind, lol. Fair enough.
  16. DocBauer
    No disservice. They are BOTH top 100 prospects depending on what listing you want to look at. They are BOTH 20-21 yo coming off A+ seasons. They are BOTH CF that might have to move to a corner spot. They BOTH have power, speed and OB and hit potential but with question marks. NEVER said I didn't like E Rodriguez. I only stated that when looking at trade value they were similar prospects. When comparing the THOUSANDS of products that are out there, a few opinions or who should be ranked where is kind of silly when we're talking, maybe 25-30 spots. I DON'T want to trade E Rodriguez. I ONLY stated that there is a VERY close similarity between these two prospects in regard to value, rankings, rankings with their own teams, and potential in regard to the Polanco trade and similar value in different trade values. E Rodriguez is our #3 prospect. I hear Gonzalez will be in our top 10 if kept. Is splitting a few hairs in comps while discussing value for the trade between a couple very similar players a disservice to Rodriguez? If so, then I'm guilty.
  17. DocBauer
    Because they gave up a decent pen arm, a flier, $6M in cash, and their reportedly #3 prospect?
  18. DocBauer
    This only reaffirms my position the FO should have added and got back one of those arms the Twins were looking at by adding a couple good prospects instead of what they did.
  19. DocBauer
    Except, there are teams like Seattle and Miami who need offense and seem to have pitching to spare to add. And the Twins had Polanco to spare themselves, and could add a Larnach, maybe a close Severino, and a few solid to good prospects to "spare" for the future. But the Twins just threw out an ACE with nothing to back it up in a short game. Now they have to dig deeper than they should have to have a winning hand.
  20. DocBauer
    Outstanding. Thank you for providing this. A lot of great information. But it makes me more concerned about this deal. I like our FO. And I've been accused of being an overly optimistic fan...granted...but I've also called out the FO when I feel they've made mistakes. The young lady in the report seems very plugged in. Including the fact the FO was very dialed in to them wanting to add Polanco. And I keep asking myself, if the Mariners wanted Polanco so bad, why didn't the Twins just add more to sweeten the deal to add someone better in the return?
  21. DocBauer
    Yes. That team was Seattle. At least IMO. Just look at it from a different perspective. They wanted, and frankly needed. Polanco. And they have the depth to trade 1 of about 5 arms depending on the package from Castillo to Miller to Hancock to Woo, etc. The Twins could given them some combination of Polanco, Larnach, Severino, Schobel. Rosario, J Rodriguez, Mercedes, even an arm to replace whoever they gave up like Festa, (shudder moment), SWR, Jones, etc, to make a ONE STOP SHOP for both teams on a 1 for 3 deal, or a 2 for 4 deal where Topa is still included. POTENTIALLY, the Mariners get Polanco, Larnach, Severino, and a quality arm for one of their arms and still keep their reported #3 prospect in Gonzalez. They don't even have to throw in the $6M they are sending to the Twins.
  22. DocBauer
    In a hypothetical world, it would have made more financial sense to send Polanco and a couple prospects to Seattle to let them keep their young arms...which they said they wanted to do...and trade Castillo. Castillo would FIT in to the 2024 budget, and probably cap the Twins there. But a win-win for both teams. The Twins lose Kepler's $10M salary in 2025, but have some raises to give, most notably to Lopez. But Farmer comes off the books as well. POTENTIALLY, TV and streaming deals also look different in 2025. But with a roster that is mostly young and cost controlled, it would require at least a bit of ownership tightening of the belt to make it work, unless 2025 and future deals looked pretty good. And it's possible Castillo waiving his no trade could have involved additional numbers. So maybe it just wouldn't work in the long run. But I sure would have liked to see that "dangerous" of a move.
  23. DocBauer
    You aren't entirely wrong here, good sir. But an ankle injury...if I'm trusting reports I've read...that wiped out his 2022, and an elbow injury that ruined a promising start to his 2023 season, leaves "innings eater" as a hope only. Topa, unless a tweak raises his game, is a late blooming 32yo 6th inning guy, not an 8th inning guy. Now there's value in that, but it's doubtful as a difference maker. And you're right about the $ as Scalfini and Polanco aren't that different in payroll, but the Mariners are also sending the Twins $ to offset the difference. So they get a 2 for 1 $ wise, and maybe even save a few $M. So the payroll is probably cut a little. And you're correct about the 2 prospects not needing to bad added any time soon. One is highly regarded, the other is a throw in. But wouldn't a couple 10-20 ranked Twins prospects WITH Polanco for a better arm been a better move?
  24. DocBauer
    I love Polanco and am sorry to see him go. But I've always said he was still a quality bat and was the logical move to go in a deal. And I have also stated that if the Twins DIDN'T include Polanco in a deal for a quality SP, I could then see him moved for additional help elsewhere, OR, for prospects to replace what we gave up. Don't have a problem with moving him. I think we're pretty much on the same page there. I just think the Twins grabbed quantity and not quality to help for 2024. I think it would have made much more sense to trade him, and maybe Severino, Larnach, Schobel, Mercedes, in some combination to acquire a better from Seattle. And the Mariners have enough arms to be able to deal one for Polanco, additional help in Larnach, maybe, a Severino who might be close, and/or a young player for their future and they get to keep their top 3 prospect. Maybe the RP remains part of the deal in a 3 or 4 for 2 deal. I just think they under sold in this deal. Again, the deal makes more sense and looks better if there is another deal forthcoming.
  25. DocBauer
    I'm behind on reading as I just off work and will have to catch up. And if someone touched on this, sorry to be repeating. But I did a really quick injury check on DeScalfini and saw that he had a bad ankle in 2022 that is probably the reason his year was so poor and so brief. He began 2023 with a very good ERA and solid start through April, I believe I read, before his elbow started to flare up with what they said was a grade 1 elbow strain, whatever that entails. He thew longer to poor results, and was shut down to receive plasma rich platelet injections. He was basically shut down for the year at that point.
×
×
  • Create New...