Cody Christie

Anything can happen in October, and the Twins have one of their strongest rosters in recent memory. So, how do the Twins compare against the Blue Jays for each game in the Wild Card Series? Image courtesy of Michael McLoone - USA Today Sports Dan Szymborski has run ZiPS models at FanGraphs and other site for years, and it is widely considered one of baseball's most accurate predictors. His model uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends and make predictions. According to Szymborski, his playoff model gears much more toward the playoffs' micro-level than the regular season's macro-level. He explained this process by saying, "The ZiPS game matchup tool has a built-in lineup estimator that projects every pitcher's and batter's line against every other pitcher and batter, so there is no need to look at a team's generalized offensive strength. The playoffs also come with the benefit of being able to run the full, more robust model of ZiPS rather than the simpler model used during the regular season, a compromise necessitated by the fact that projecting a majors' worth of players takes more than a day." These results can change as the rosters are finalized, and official starters are announced for each team. Here is how Szymborski sees the Twins and Blue Jays series playing out over the next three days. Game 1 Expected Starters: Kevin Gausman vs. Pablo Lopez Twins Win Probability: 43.1% ZiPS gives the Blue Jays the advantage in Game 1 with Gausman on the mound. The Twins faced Gausman twice this season and scored seven earned runs in 10 innings. Lopez made one start against Toronto and allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. His start against the Blue Jays was back at the end of May when he was struggling, so the current version of Lopez is a different pitcher. Minnesota will likely pack their lineup with left-handed hitters in hopes of pushing Gausman out of the game early. Lefties have posted a .731 OPS against Gausman this season, 113 points higher than he allowed to righties. Game 2 Expected Starters: Jose Berrios vs. Sonny Gray Twins Win Probability: 50.3% This game will be full of storylines no matter what happens in Game 1. Berrios returning to Target Field on the playoff stage is one storyline that is dripping with intrigue. He made one start against the Twins this year and tossed 5 2/3 shutout innings. Gray making what could be his last start before hitting free agency for the first time is another headline to follow. He started one game versus the Blue Jays and allowed one run on five hits in five innings. Game 2 is the only game the Twins are favored to win, and it's a coin flip game according to ZiPS. Game 3 Expected Starters: Chris Bassitt vs. Joe Ryan Twins Win Probability: 45.4% Both teams can go in multiple directions for an elimination game. Bassitt has been strong for Toronto, but the club might want to start Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher. This switch would force the Twins to start more right-handed batters for Game 3, and then Bassitt could be used in a piggybacking role. On Sunday's episode of Inside Twins, Rocco Baldelli was asked about Game 3 and whether Ryan would make the start. He wasn't willing to name an official starter but said that traditional starter and reliever roles go out the window in a do-or-die game. Overall Odds Using the ZiPS model, the Twins probability of winning the series is 44.4%. The odds of the Twins winning in two games is 21.7%, and the odds of winning in three games is 22.7%. The Blue Jays won two more games than the Twins during the regular season while playing in a significantly more competitive division. Minnesota has played better in the second half, and it's shaping up to be a good series, even if the odds favor Toronto. Do you agree with the ZiPS playoff projections? Should the Twins be favored in either of the other games? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins will likely try and find a way to get Royce Lewis on the playoff roster. What are the three options facing the team when it comes to Lewis? Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Royce Lewis has been progressing steadily since going on the IL with a Grade 1-plus hamstring strain on September 21. It can take a player multiple weeks to recover from this level of hamstring strain, but the Twins seem confident that he will return to action for the Wild Card Series. There are a few different options for the Twins in how they handle Lewis in the season's most important games. Do they want to use him in the field when his injury is not fully healed? Lewis has been a revelation to the Twins lineup during his rookie campaign. In 58 games, he hit .309/.372/.548 (.921) with seven doubles and 15 home runs. Big moments also seemed to find Lewis as he hit four grand slams and finished second among Twins batters in WPA behind Willi Castro. The Twins know what he can mean to the lineup, and there's no question the team will find a way for him to impact the team in October. Here are three options the Twins can follow depending on how Lewis looks during the team's workout on Monday. Option 1: Starting Third Baseman Slow rollers at third base can be a challenging play for a healthy third baseman to make regularly. These types of plays can be even more challenging for a player recovering from a hamstring injury. Lewis has been participating in baseball activities at Target Field over the last week, so the team has a pretty good idea of what he will be able to handle on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota's optimal defensive lineup includes Lewis at third, Carlos Correa at shortstop, and Jorge Polanco at second base. Besides Lewis, there are injury concerns with Correa and what he will be able to do at shortstop. The Twins likely want to avoid two defenders on the same side of the infield with limited mobility. If that is the case, Minnesota might switch to one of the other options listed below. Option 2: Designated Hitter There are multiple options the team can consider at designated hitter, but this might be the safest bet for Lewis. Putting him at DH allows the team to still have his bat in the lineup, and it allows him to rest his hamstring by not playing third base. In this scenario, the Twins would move Polanco to third base and Julien to second base. Polanco has looked fine in minimal action at the hot corner this season, and Julien continues to work to improve at second base. However, there are other ramifications if Lewis is the DH. Byron Buxton has also been working his way back from injury, but his inclusion on the playoff roster is much less certain. Minnesota could use Buxton as a big bench bat, and that might be the team's plan if the club can make it past the Wild Card round. He couldn't make many appearances during his rehab assignment because his knee continued to bother him. In his last two Triple-A games, he went 1-for-8 with three strikeouts. It seems more likely for Lewis to be the team's DH over Buxton. Option 3: Rest Him for Round 2 Minnesota will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series, and the club's top starters are right-handed. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt will be the team's likely starters for the three-game set, but the team can also utilize Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher. Lewis, a righty, posted reverse splits this season with a .962 OPS versus righties and a .787 OPS versus lefties. He got on base over 37% of the time, no matter the handedness of the pitcher, but 19 of his 22 extra-base hits came against righties. If the Twins leave him off the Wild Card roster, Lewis will get four extra days of rest because the team can reset their roster for each playoff round. With a Grade 1-plus strain, each extra day of rest can get him closer to being 100%. Minnesota hasn't won a playoff game in nearly two decades, so the team will want all hands on deck. Which option will the Twins pick? Which option would you pick? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

George W. Bush was in office, Goodies by Ciara was at the top of the music charts, and Shark Tale was the highest-grossing movie at the box office. It was a simpler time, and the Twins never thought it would be their last playoff victory for nearly two decades. Image courtesy of Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports On a calm October night in the Bronx, the Twins slayed a dragon and put themselves in the driver’s seat against one of baseball’s giants. Unfortunately, the rest of the series wouldn’t go in Minnesota’s favor, and the Twins have yet to win a playoff game since October 5, 2004. Let’s revisit that fateful night and see how the team put together a winning formula. Can the current Twins learn anything from the last time the team won a playoff game? Johan Santana’s Seven Shutout Innings It’s no coincidence that Santana was on the mound for the Twins’ last postseason victory. He is arguably the most dominant pitcher in team history and was in his first Cy Young season. The Yankees scattered nine hits versus Santana over seven frames. New York had runners in scoring positions in five of the seven innings, and batters reached base in every inning. Some opportune plays helped Santana get out of some possible jams. The first inning ended with an unconventional double play, with Santana striking out Bernie Williams and Henry Blanco throwing out Alex Rodriguez when he tried to steal third base. In the second inning, Torii Hunter threw Jorge Posada out at home after trying to tag up on a deep flyball. Santana also coaxed double plays to help him in the fourth and fifth innings. He was removed with a 2-0 lead and posted seven shutout innings with five strikeouts and one walk. Just Enough Offense The Twins were facing off against future Hall of Famer Mike Mussina in Game 1, so offense would be challenging for both teams. Shannon Stewart got the Twins on the board with an RBI single in the top of the third inning. Michael Cuddyer led off the inning with a single on a 2-1 pitch. On the next pitch, Henry Blanco executed a sacrifice bunt to move Cuddyer into scoring position. Mussina got ahead of Stewart with a 0-1 count before the Twins outfielder broke up the shutout. Jacque Jones added an important insurance run in the sixth inning. He had arrived at Yankee Stadium just hours before the game after attending his father’s funeral. Jones was notoriously known as a pull hitter, but this home run went to the opposite field and snuck the ball over the fence at the old Yankee Stadium. Jones’ emotions were running high, and he helped give the bullpen a little more breathing room for the final innings. As he crossed home plate, he showed how he felt about his father, pointing to the sky. "You know who that was for," Jones said following the game. "He's watching me like he always has even when he was here with us. I know he's excited, and I was excited." Zeros from the Bullpen Twins manager Ron Gardenhire turned the game over to the bullpen in the eighth inning. Juan Rincon was the first reliever out of the pen and came in to face the 2-3-4 batters in the Yankees line-up. After a flyball from Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield earned a four-pitch walk. Luckily, Rincon was able to get Bernie Williams to hit into a 6-4-3 double play to end the innings. Joe Nathan entered in the ninth inning with a chance to preserve a 2-0 Twins victory. Both of the first two batters (Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui) flew out on two pitches. Ruben Sierra was the third batter of the inning, and he worked a full count before flying out to right field to end the game. The Yankees went on to win the next three games in the series, including two games that went extra-innings. It was a frustrating way for the series to play out, but the recipe followed by the 2004 team might help the 2023 Twins to end their playoff losing streak. It will likely take a strong performance from the team’s starting pitcher, zeros put up by the bullpen, and enough offense to outpace their opponent. Some strange plays can be involved in October baseball, as the Twins saw with Santana on the mound. It is up to the team to make the most of every opportunity. Can the current Twins follow this formula for October success? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins starting rotation and bullpen are coming together at the opportune time. Here’s how the team will ideally use each pitcher in the team’s first two playoff games. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Major League Baseball’s regular season is a grueling 162-game schedule that allows for ebbs and flows from one portion of the season to the next. The postseason is an entirely different scenario where one moment can change the entire outcome of a series. There is little room for mistakes in the heightened playoff atmosphere, which makes it tough to predict what will happen on baseball’s biggest stage. However, here’s the roadmap for the Twins to follow if everything goes perfectly in the Wild Card Series. Wild Card Series: Game 1 Tuesday, October 3rd, 2023 Innings 1-5: Pablo Lopez has pitched into the sixth inning or longer in 26 of his 31 starts. However, the playoffs are a different animal, and the Twins won’t want him facing a line-up for the third time. Lopez has actually fared better against batters when facing them for a third time, with an OPS over 100 points lower than the first or second time he sees a batter in a game. Even with his performance, it’s likely that Lopez will be asked to pitch through the fifth frame and then turn things over to the bullpen. Innings 6-7: In the middle innings, the Twins will have a few options, but Louie Varland might be the best choice. His stuff has been electric in transitioning to the bullpen while hitting triple-digits with his fastball and mixing in a devastating cutter. Contact against him has been weak, and he has been missing a lot of bats. He also has the potential to pitch more than one inning if the Twins need him for that role. Innings 8-9: The Twins will have a couple of options depending on the handedness of the line-up they are facing. I predict the opposition has some lefties due up in the eighth, and the Twins will turn to Caleb Thielbar. During the 2023 season, he has limited left-handed batters to a .348 OPS with 13 strikeouts in 46 at-bats. In this scenario, Jhoan Duran is ready if needed for the end of the eighth inning, but the team hopes he can enter with a clean frame in the ninth. Duran closes it out for the Twins’ first playoff win since 2004. Wild Card Series: Game 2 Wednesday, October 4th, 2023 Innings 1-5: The Twins will ask their starter to pitch five innings for the second consecutive day, and Sonny Gray is up to the task. His second-half performance should place him in the top three for the AL Cy Young. Like Lopez in Game 1, the Twins will happily get Gray through the first five frames before the bullpen makes an appearance. Gray has posted a .209/.294/.342 (.636) slashline when facing batters for the third time in a game this season. No team wants to mess around with a winner-take-all Game 3, so Gray must put up zeros during the first two times through the opposition’s line-up. Innings 6-7: Minnesota can turn to multiple arms in the middle innings to build a bridge to the high-leverage options. Chris Paddack and Griffin Jax will each be asked to get three outs. Paddack is 16 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and his pitch mix has looked great in his rehab appearances. Jax’s season has been a roller coaster ride, but the team must trust him to make an October run. Innings 8-9: With six outs remaining, the Twins might want Duran to pitch two frames. However, that doesn’t seem likely if he pitched the previous day, so the team will save him for the ninth. Batters have posted a .747 OPS against Duran when he pitches with zero days of rest, which is over 100 points higher than his OPS for the season. Brock Stewart will get the ball in the eighth after being one of the team’s best relievers this season. The Twins will put him in some tough spots, hoping the dominant reliever has enough left in his right arm. Duran makes his famous walk-in entrance, and the Twins shut the door on their first playoff series win since 2002. What pitching plan will the Twins follow in the Wild Card Series? Do you agree with the plan described above? How would you map out a plan for Game 3? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

A deep bench has allowed Rocco Baldelli to be aggressive with in-game moves throughout the 2023 season. Have these moves helped the team, and will this trend continue into October? Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports During the 2019 season, Rocco Baldelli was a rookie manager, and the Bomba Squad Twins set the MLB home run record. As a manager, there were few in-game moves he needed to make with the line-up because everyone was hitting so well. He could sit on his hands and have a front-row seat to a team hitting many home runs. Baldelli has been forced to be a more active manager in recent years because there was no way for the Twins to duplicate their offensive production from that record-breaking season. Entering the 2023 season, the Twins added multiple veterans to serve off the bench, but many have taken on even more critical roles. Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano have over 330 plate appearances each, with Castro and Taylor ranking among the team's top 10 in rWAR. Bench options have changed throughout the season, and Baldelli has been fearless in pulling some strings even when the offense struggled in the first half. Minnesota ranked 11th out of 15 AL teams in the first half in runs scored, with three of the teams behind them being from the AL Central. Twins' pinch hitters also struggled in the first half with a .173 BA and a .512 OPS. Offensively, the team has seen a resurgence in the second half, with Houston being the lone AL team scoring more runs. The team's OPS from pinch hitters has risen nearly 500 points in the second half, and the team leads MLB in batting average, OBP, SLG, runs, and RBIs from bench players. There is also some question about who will be on Baldelli's bench for October. Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton are currently on the IL, and there is some question regarding whether or not they will be ready for the postseason. The player's health might force the team to make tough decisions about who is active for the Wild Card Round. Buxton has the potential to be a big bench bat when the team faces tough left-handed relievers, so can he have a Kirk Gibson-style moment for the Twins? Lewis is running out of days for his hamstring to heal, so he might be relegated to DH duties if he can play. After the Twins clinched, Seth outlined which Twins players he felt would make the team's Wild Card roster. The Twins will carry two catchers, leaving Ryan Jeffers or Christian Vazquez as a bench bat on games they aren't in the starting line-up. At first base, the Twins can platoon Alex Kirilloff and Donovan Solano. Baldelli had the opportunity to pinch-hit Kirilloff for Solano early in one of the games versus the Angels and made the move. Kyle Farmer is a backup infield option if Lewis and Correa aren't ready to go. In the outfield, it seems likely for the team to start different players depending on the opposing starting pitcher's handedness. Matt Wallner, Willi Castro, and Max Kepler are the likely starters versus a right-handed pitcher, while Michael A. Taylor will probably sub in against a left-handed pitcher. If Buxton is ready, Minnesota can utilize a platoon at DH with Edouard Julien facing right-handed pitchers and Buxton seeing action against lefties. It remains to be seen if the Twins want Buxton to serve in a part-time role for the postseason, but things should be more evident by the season's final series when more is known about the team's injured players. Baldelli will use pinch hitters no matter the inning to put his team into favorable offensive match-ups. The Twins have a deep bench, which can be critical to success in October. Do you believe Baldelli will continue to be aggressive with pinch-hitting in the playoffs? How will Minnesota's current injury concerns impact the team's bench options? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Relief pitching takes on even more importance in October when a game's outcome can tip on one pitch. Here is how the Twins’ bullpen stacks up heading into the playoffs. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Successful teams in October rely on shutdown bullpen arms in the late innings of tight games. Minnesota's last playoff win came in 2004, with Joe Nathan earning the save at a time when he was considered one of the game's best closers. Flash-forward nearly two decades, and the team's bullpen is built around another dominant closer. Can the other relievers bridge the gap between the starters and the final innings? Minnesota's postseason roster will include changes from one round to the next if the team can win its best-of-three Wild Card Series. Rosters can include 26 players for the playoffs, so the club will likely utilize 15 position players and 11 pitchers for the first round. Three pitchers will be the scheduled starters, leaving eight spots open for bullpen arms. Closer: Jhoan Duran Duran has been one of baseball's best relievers over the last two seasons, ranking third among AL relievers in WPA since the start of 2022. He began the 2022 season well before a rough patch in July and August that saw his ERA rise from below 2.00 to nearly 3.00. Since August 4th, the Twins have focused on giving Duran more regular rest, significantly impacting his overall performance. In 16 games (16 2/3 innings), he has allowed two earned runs with a 22-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding batters to a .551 OPS. His lone blemish in recent games was the team's division-clinching win, but he said his nerves impacted his performance that night. In the playoffs, the Twins have some questions to answer about how they use Duran. How can he perform in back-to-back appearances? Will the Twins use him for more than one inning? Duran can be a playoff weapon, especially if the team finds a way to keep him fresh. Set-Up: Griffin Jax, Caleb Thielbar Jax has earned a high-leverage role from the Twins bullpen over the last two seasons. However, there have been some up-and-down moments with his performance in 2023, including May, which saw his ERA balloon to 5.59. Bad luck has been mixed into his overall performance, as his ERA is nearly 70 points higher than his FIP. The Twins will ask Jax to get some critical outs in October, and the hope is that the dominant version of Jax will appear that night. Thielbar has saved the Twins bullpen in recent years after being on the brink of retirement. He's worked with Driveline in recent offseasons to move his fastball velocity from 89.8 mph to 93.0 mph during the 2023 season. He's added a sweeper that has limited batters to a .222 SLG, and his curveball generates whiffs over 30% of the time. As a southpaw, he has dominated against left-handed batters this year by holding them to a .356 OPS in over 45 plate appearances. The Twins can't use him strictly against lefties in the playoffs, so seeing how he is deployed will be interesting. Middle Relief: Emilio Pagan, Louie Varland Many fans were ready for the Twins to DFA Pagan earlier this season, but he's settled into one of the team's most reliable arms. His 3.17 ERA is the third lowest of his career and his lowest mark since the 2019 season. Pagan ranks third among Twins relievers in fWAR behind Duran and Jax. Pagan will be asked to get essential outs in the middle innings in the playoffs, and that's a scenario few would have imagined. Varland has only made a limited number of relief appearances after shifting to the role recently. However, he has been electric out of the bullpen with a triple-digit fastball and an improved cutter that can be a weapon against righties and lefties, including a 46% Swing%. His relief appearances haven't been perfect, but the Twins will need him to have a successful October. Injury Enforcements: Brock Stewart, Chris Paddack Stewart was one of the Twins' best relievers during the 2023 season before an arm injury forced him to the IL. There have been some setbacks along the way, but his most recent rehab saw his velocity in the high 90s, so there is hope he can help the postseason bullpen. Paddack is returning from Tommy John surgery, and the Twins added him to the bullpen mix last weekend. He got a lot of swings and misses during his rehab appearances, including hitting in the upper 90s with his fastball. There is potential for him to be a bullpen weapon in October that other teams need to prepare to face. Shifting Starters: Kenta Maeda, Dallas Keuchel Maeda has a solid argument to be the team's number-three starter in the postseason, but Joe Ryan is also in the conversation. Before joining the Twins, Maeda was used by the Dodgers in a relief role for multiple postseason runs. The current version of Maeda is very different from the dominant postseason arm. Keuchel has made multiple relief appearances for the Twins, but he's been used in a piggyback role, which isn't optimal for October. It isn't likely for Keuchel to see time on the mound in October unless there are some injuries. Rookie Wild Card: Kody Funderburk Funderburk has been one of the organization's best relief prospects over the last two seasons. The Twins waited until late in the season to give him his first taste of the big leagues, so it will be interesting to see if he gets an opportunity in October. Break Glass In Case of Emergency: Dylan Floro, Josh Winder, Brent Headrick, Cole Sands Something went wrong if the team asked any of these players to pitch significant innings in October. Injuries can always play a factor, but most of this group has moved up and down from Triple-A throughout the season. Minnesota's front office bet on the arms in the organization by not making a trade for relief help at the deadline. That faith will result in the best version of the club's bullpen so far this year, and it's happening at the perfect time. How do you feel the bullpen stacks up entering October? Do you have faith in the group covering the late innings? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have two of baseball’s best starting pitchers heading into October. Will it be enough to make a long postseason run? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports It takes a team effort to win in October, including strong starting pitching, a deep bullpen, and depth up-and-down the line-up. In recent years, the Twins front office made a conscious effort to add to the starting rotation, with none of the team’s top-four starters being drafted by the club. Instead, Minnesota has identified pitchers in other organizations with the potential to improve and helped them reach another level after joining the organization. Now it’s time to see how the front office’s pitching plan can work on baseball’s biggest stage. Aces At The Top: Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray An argument can be made for the Twins to start either of their top two pitchers in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round. Lopez has been pitching the day before Gray in the second half, so it seems likely for the team to keep the same order heading into October. He has been a strikeout machine in 2023 by accumulating more strikeouts than any Twins pitcher since Johan Santana. He had an ERA north of 4.20 through June, but his 3.38 FIP suggested he was a little unlucky. Since July, Lopez has been one of baseball’s best pitchers with a 2.87 ERA and a 102-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 87 2/3 innings. Lopez was the team’s Opening Day starter, and he will lead the starting rotation for multiple years in the future. The Twins have invested in Lopez, and they will hope he puts the team in a position to end its playoff losing streak. Gray has been performing better than Lopez over the last month so the team might consider him for the Game 1 start. Gerrit Cole is the front-runner for the AL Cy Young, but Gray will likely finish in the top three as he ranks near the top of the AL in WAR, ERA, WHIP, and H/9. His most significant improvement has been with HR/9, where his 0.40 total is the AL’s best mark. Over his last six starts (37 IP), he has posted a 1.46 ERA with a 32-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If the Twins lose Game 1, there is no pitcher the club would rather have on the mound in an elimination game. He’s made four previous starts in the playoffs, but half of those were over a decade ago. Gray is heading to free agency at the season’s end and will want to make a solid final impression before hitting the open market. Game 3 Starter: Joe Ryan The Twins will have a decision to make when naming a starter for Game 3 of the Wild Card round between Ryan and Kenta Maeda. Ryan was a borderline All-Star in the first half but hit a rough patch in the middle of the season when he tried to pitch through a groin injury. He has pitched well in six starts since returning from the IL with a 3.82 ERA and a 39-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 30 2/3 innings. Maeda will be on the roster, but what if the Twins decide to use him in a relief role earlier in the series? It’s also interesting to consider the team using a piggyback situation for Game 3, with Ryan starting and Maeda relieving him out of the bullpen. Starter Options for Other Rounds: Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober, Dallas Keuchel The Twins will likely need at least three starters for their Wild Card series, which means one of these arms needs to be ready to start Game 1 of the ALDS. Maeda has been one of the team’s most consistent starting pitchers in the second half, with a 3.60 ERA and a 71-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 65 innings. There’s a chance the Twins use Maeda out of the bullpen to survive the Wild Card round, which might push Ober into a Game 1 start. Ober has already posted a career-high in innings pitched, so there has been some discussion about how much he has left in the tank. Minnesota demoted him earlier this month, and he was skipped two times in the rotation before making another start. The Twins have won both of his starts since he returned from Triple-A, and he has thrown five innings and allowed two earned runs in both starts. Keuchel is probably not seeing much October action, but the team can turn to him in a pinch if something happens to one of the other starters. He has allowed three runs or more in four of his eight appearances with the Twins. The top of Minnesota’s rotation might be the strongest it has been for a postseason run in decades. It will take a team effort to make a long playoff run, but the rotation seems built for October success. How do you feel the team’s starting staff lines up for October? How do they compare to other starting staffs in the American League? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Twins batters are on pace to set the all-time record for strikeouts in a season, while the pitching staff has already set the team record for strikeouts. How will these two opposite ends of the spectrum impact the team in October? Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Strikeouts have become increasingly part of the game because baseball is a game that continually evolves. Increases in research and technology have allowed pitchers to add velocity and more movement to their pitches, making them even more challenging to hit. Batters also have a wealth of data about opposing pitchers. Hitting a round baseball with a round bat is one of the most challenging tasks in professional sports, leading to higher strikeout totals. Pitching Staff’s Strike Out Prowess Minnesota’s pitching staff entered play on Sunday with a league-leading 1,461 strikeouts. The Twins have baseball’s highest K% (25.4%) and K-BB% (17.9%). Minnesota can realistically move into the all-time top-25 list for strikeouts at their current rate of striking out more than 9.2 times per game. The 2018 Houston Astros set the all-time record with 1,687 strikeouts, but to reach the top 25, the Twins only need to collect 1,524 strikeouts. Building a strikeout pitching staff has taken some time, but the Twins have developed arms up-and-down the roster. Pablo Lopez leads the Twins with over 228 strikeouts, which puts him into elite company among the franchise’s strikeout list. Only three pitchers in team history have struck out more batters in a season than Lopez. Joe Ryan led the Twins in strikeouts during the 2022 season, and he currently ranks second on the team with 181, with Sonny Gray only two strikeouts behind him. Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda have accumulated over 100 strikeouts during the season. Minnesota’s bullpen also includes three pitchers (Brock Stewart, Jhoan Duran, and Kody Funderburk) with a K/9 of 11.5 or higher. In tight playoff games, strikeouts can be the difference between a team getting out of a jam or seeing the opposition score runs. Lineup Strikeout Issues The Twins lineup has already set the team record for strikeouts in a season, and they are in the top 15 all-time for strikeouts in MLB history. Minnesota has struck out ten times or more in 88 times through the team’s first 155 games, which smashes the previous record of 66 games with 10+ strikeouts. Unfortunately, the team has also struck out 13 times or more in 33 games this season, with a season-high 18 strikeouts versus Seattle on July 25th. Looking at the lineup, there is some hope for a late-season turnaround. Things have changed in the second half with the emergence of a young core that has improved the team’s overall offensive output while also improving at drawing walks. Among American League teams, only the Houston Astros have scored more runs since the All-Star break. Six Twins players have a K% above 30% for the season, with Joey Gallo leading the way (42.8%). Three of the six players will have little to do with the playoff roster, including Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton. Recent Postseason History Strikeouts play a role in October but don’t guarantee postseason success. During the 2022 season, the four pitching staffs in the Championship Series ranked in the top 10 or higher in strikeout rate. Offensively, none of the final four ranked higher than 13th in total strikeouts. The Astros won the World Series and finished with the fourth-most strikeouts from their pitching staff and the second-fewest strikeouts from their batters. In 2021, the Braves won the World Series, and their batters finished with the 11th most strikeouts while their pitchers were only slightly above the league average. The Dodgers (2nd), Red Sox (5th), and Astros (11th) were among the final four teams and ranked higher than the Braves according to strikeouts from the pitching staff. However, the Astros (2nd fewest strikeouts) were the lone final four team to be better than league-average on the offensive side. The Twins have embraced the strikeout on both sides of the ball. Only the 2015 Cubs and the 1958 Dodgers have led the league in both pitching and batting strikeout rates in the same season. Both clubs went on to win the World Series the following season. Twins fans likely don’t want to wait until next year and can hope their strikeout performance can carry them during the 2023 postseason. Are you worried about the Twins’ strikeout totals? Can a team succeed in the postseason on the two strikeout extremes? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins hoped Byron Buxton could return to center field for the stretch run. However, his latest injury setback changed his role for October. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Twins Daily Byron Buxton made his first appearance in center field as part of a rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul on August 30th. During his next game, he was removed from action because of inflammation and irritation in his right knee. This type of reaction can be expected when a player is dealing with knee issues and attempting to ramp up after extended time off. As a procedural move, the Twins pulled him off his rehab assignment on September 5th so that they could reset his 20-day rehab window. Last week, head athletic trainer Nick Paparesta told reporters that he still anticipates that Buxton will appear in games for the Twins this season. Buxton received a cortisone injection to deal with his right knee issue, and he began rotational work on Thursday. The Saints have fewer than ten games remaining on their schedule, making it tough to ramp him up for the playoffs, but the Twins believe Buxton can still be ready to help the team. "We will make it happen," Paparesta said. "We're going to make it happen in the context of us being able to get him at-bats and get him prepared to play, yes." Minnesota also believes Buxton has a chance to play in center field even though he has yet to make an outfield appearance for the Twins this season. "My impression is for him to be able to play wherever he needs to be able to play for this team," Paparesta said. Twins fans are likely trepidatious when considering Buxton's previous injury history and the idea of him returning to center field in a season that is quickly closing. Minnesota has other center field options like Michael A. Taylor, Willi Castro, and Andrew Stevenson, who each offer different skill sets. However, Buxton is one of the game's best overall players when he is performing at the top of his game, which has yet to be something fans have seen much in 2023. Playoff baseball is on the horizon for the Twins, and the front office might need to get creative regarding Buxton's postseason role. There is room on the playoff roster for extra bench options to fill specific roles such as pinch runner, defensive replacement, or platoon bat. The team will need to consider multiple options if Buxton's knee can't handle regular outfield duties and they still want to have him on the October roster. A right-handed bench bat has been one of the Twins' most significant needs throughout the regular season. The club didn't address this need during the winter because they hoped Buxton would be joined in the middle of the line-up with other right-handed power bats like Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda. Injuries have impacted all three players this season, and the team's struggles against left-handed pitching have been well-documented. The trade deadline offered a new opportunity to add a right-handed bat, but the Twins didn't make any offensive additions. Instead, Minnesota turned to the waiver wire and selected Jordan Luplow to add power against lefties. In 24 games with the Twins, he has hit .250/.357/.438 (.795) with five extra-base hits and a 117 OPS+. Against lefties, he has posted an .838 OPS for the season, which will be challenging for the front office to ignore. The Twins have an opportunity to move Buxton to a bench bat role for the postseason so they can spot him against left-handed relievers. The Twins have few other options in the organization with as much power potential versus lefties, and it would allow Buxton to limit his time on the field. Buxton's streakiness against left-handed pitching makes it hard to know what to expect from him in a small sample size. In previous years, Buxton has shown an ability to return quickly from injuries and immediately impact the line-up. Minnesota can hope he represents a threat off the bench, especially versus some potentially strong left-handed relievers in October. Buxton's return will likely be messy, especially with a team already facing a roster crunch on the offensive side. Will Buxton be able to prepare for the rigors of center field? Or is it time to consider a bench bat role for a potential playoff run? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins fared well against the Rangers during the 2023 regular season. What does that mean for a potential playoff match-up versus Texas? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Twins Daily The Texas Rangers looked like one of the American League's best teams for most of the season's first half. Some second-half struggles have dropped them from the top of the AL West, but they seemed to have regained their form in the season's final month. Let's review the season series between Minnesota and Texas while also looking ahead to a potential playoff match-up. Twins vs. Rangers Season Series Recap The Twins faced the Rangers for seven games in ten days when Texas was in their worst slump of the year. Minnesota took five of the seven games by outscoring the Rangers 47-to-33. The series had some heated moments, including a benches-clearing altercation. Sonny Gray hit former Twins catcher Mitch Garver with a pitch after Ryan Jeffers had been hit by a Texas pitcher earlier in the game. Jeffers had smashed a game-winning homer the previous night, which included an epic bat flip, so the Rangers were likely retaliating for this incident. Emotions can run even higher in the playoffs, so seeing how these teams react when facing off on an even bigger stage will be interesting. Rangers Starting Rotation Texas traded for Max Scherzer at the trade deadline to headline their rotation for a potential playoff run. Unfortunately, he has a teres major strain, which means he is unlikely to pitch in the postseason. Jacob deGrom was the team's big offseason signing, but he had to undergo Tommy John surgery earlier this season. Nathan Eovaldi was an All-Star, but a second-half injury has limited him, and he has yet to be stretched back out. If he started in October, he would likely be limited in the number of pitches he could throw, which might have Texas looking to other rotational options. The team's other rotational options are Jordan Montgomery, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Andrew Heaney. Montgomery and Heaney are left-handed pitchers, which has caused the Twins some issues this season. Gray, Heaney, and Dunning all have ERA's north of 3.90. In seven games against Rangers pitchers, the Twins hit .263/.357/.486 (.843) with ten doubles, one triple, and 15 home runs. It was the club's second-highest OPS versus any opponent they played in over four games. Rangers Bullpen While the Rangers starters might not be daunting, the Texas bullpen has the potential to cause some issues for the Twins. Will Smith and Aroldis Chapman are the team's top two relievers, and both are lefties. Minnesota has seen Chapman in five games this season and has gone 3-for-17 (.177 BA) with ten strikeouts and four walks. Smith saw the Twins go 2-for-9 against him, including a home run. These are obviously small sample sizes, but the Twins will need some right-handed bats off the bench to counter when Texas turns it over to their top relievers. Jose Leclerc, Brock Burke, and Martin Perez are other bullpen options, with Burke and Perez being southpaws. Leclerc has posted a 10.3 K/9 with a 144 ERA+ in 50 appearances. Perez, a former Twins starter, has bounced between the rotation and bullpen in 2023. There is a real chance that Texas can use an entire left-handed group in games against the Twins. Rangers Line-Up The Rangers' offense is led by their two huge free-agent signings from two offseasons ago, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Seager will garner MVP consideration as he ranks second in the AL in rWAR behind Shohei Ohtani. He leads the AL in doubles, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. Semien struggled mightily in his first season with the Rangers but returned to his All-Star caliber form in 2023. He is tied for third in rWAR and will likely be a top-five finisher for AL MVP. Outside their tremendous duo are other complementary pieces to the Rangers line-up. Adolis Garcia has hit over 30 home runs for the second time in his career. Mitch Garver posted a 1.282 OPS against his former team this season, including four home runs in 24 at-bats. Nathaniel Lowe has a 120 OPS+ and 55 extra-base hits in 146 games. Jonah Heim has been one of the AL's best offensive catchers, with 26 doubles and 17 home runs in 117 games. The Rangers have been a good team for different stretches of the season. Their group of left-handed pitchers can pose a threat, especially with Minnesota's struggles against southpaws. However, the Twins fared well against them during the regular season and can hope for more of the same in the playoffs. What are your thoughts about a potential playoff match-up between the Twins and Rangers? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Plantar fasciitis has impacted Carlos Correa throughout the 2023 season. So, how much will the team play Correa over the final weeks with the division seemingly locked up? Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp & Twins Daily Back in May, the Twins first announced that Correa was dealing with plantar fasciitis, a lingering foot injury that takes time to go away. Time off his feet can help to deal with the immediate issues surrounding the injury, but it will likely take an entire offseason to recover. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli dealt with the injury during his playing career, and it didn’t go away until he took the offseason to get off his feet. Unfortunately, other players deal with plantar fasciitis for the remainder of their careers. Correa has played in over 130 games for the third consecutive season but is putting up the worst offensive numbers of his career. In 132 games, he is hitting .230/.310/.402 (.712) with 29 doubles, two triples, and 18 home runs. His 94 OPS+ is the second-lowest total of his career behind the shortened 2020 season. He has played more games than any other Twins player, but the club might need to find ways to give him more of a break during the stretch run. The Twins gave Correa two consecutive days off last week after his injury seemed to impact his defense in back-to-back games. He was charged with an error last Monday and misplayed a ball on Tuesday that allowed a run to score. These were both uncharacteristic plays for a former Platinum Glove winner at shortstop, even if he has lost a step on the defensive side of the ball. His injury has also impacted his base running, as he has been arguably the team’s worst base runner. Even with his struggles, Correa’s offensive performance seems to be coming around since the calendar turned to September. In the month’s first 12 games, he has gone 15-for-48 (.313 BA) with three doubles and two home runs. His .865 OPS is 130 points higher than any other month this season. Correa finished last season on a high note in September, and he’s been known for being a strong performer in the playoffs. Now, the Twins hope Correa can hit his stride for an October playoff run. The Twins will need to try and find the balance of rest for Correa while also keeping him ready for the postseason. His schedule will likely include multiple days off in a row or sitting out a game if the club has an off day on the next day. The Twins have two remaining off days: Thursday, September 21st, and Monday, September 25th. The Twins likely give him the day off in the games before or after the off days to maximize his rest time. He’s made it clear that he wants to be in the line-up regularly, even if his heel is bothering him. “I’m getting paid to play baseball, right?” said Correa to reporters. “If I feel like I can go out there and at least be a certain percentage where I can just play and try to help the team, I’m going to show up. I don’t like being on the IL. I don’t like sitting out.” Entering play on Monday, the Twins have 12 remaining games on the schedule, with the final three in the high altitude of Colorado. It seems likely for Correa to play in seven or fewer of the team’s remaining games, including limited action during the Rockies series. The Twins can also give him time at DH to keep his bat in the line-up while also avoiding some of the strain on his heel. How much should the Twins play Correa over the season’s final games? Are you encouraged by his offensive performance in September? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Caleb Thielbar thought he had thrown his last pitch and was ready to start coaching. Instead, the Twins called him, and he’s saved the team’s bullpen over the last four seasons. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Caleb Thielbar spent four straight seasons pitching in the minor leagues for three different organizations. His last big-league appearance had been a brief one with the Twins in 2015, and teams weren’t giving him a chance even with some strong numbers in the upper minors. Thielbar decided the 2019 season would be his last, and he accepted a pitching coach position at Augustana University in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Instead, the Twins gave him one final chance, and it has altered the team’s bullpen for nearly half a decade. Minnesota added Thielbar for the 2020 season in hopes he could make the Opening Day roster. The pandemic impacted the entire season, but Thielbar performed well during the shortened campaign. In 20 innings, he posted a 2.25 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. Thielbar proved he still had something left in the tank, but he also decided to find new ways to improve himself during the offseason. Thielbar has worked on his pitching mechanics and added 20 pounds to his frame over the last two seasons. Thielbar has been a regular at Driveline since 2017 to work on his mechanics and add a sweeper. His sweeper is now his second most used pitch, and he’s held batters to a .111 BA and .222 SLG versus this pitch in 2023. His fastball has also gained velocity over the last four seasons, moving from 89.8 mph in 2020 to 93.0 mph this season. Thielbar’s curveball has also been a wipe-out pitch by generating whiffs over 30% of the time. Thielbar has been elite against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .140/.140/.233 (.372) with 11 strikeouts in 43 plate appearances. Righties have posted a .788 against him, slightly higher than the league average. However, he has more strikeouts (17) than hits allowed versus right-handed hitters. Thielbar has surrendered four home runs against righties, with two coming in back-to-back games near the end of August. Since then, he has tossed eight straight scoreless appearances by only allowing two hits. Since 2020, Thielbar ranks 24th among AL relievers in fWAR, the top ranking among Twins pitchers. Former Twins closer Taylor Rogers is one spot ahead of Thielbar, with current Twins reliever Dylan Floro ranking 18th. WAR can be a challenging measurement for relievers since it is a counting stat, and relievers work in small sample sizes. Win Probability Added can also point to solid performances out of the bullpen. Over the last four seasons, Thielbar ranks 20th among relievers in WPA, with Jhoan Duran (8th) being the lone Twins reliever ahead of Thielbar. Thielbar’s 2023 season is among the best in Twins’ history. Three relievers (Joe Nathan, Al Worthington, and Dean Chance) are the only pitchers in team history to throw more innings with a lower ERA than Thielbar. Nathan had multiple seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA on his way to being one of the best relievers in team history. Worthington didn’t pitch for the Twins until his late 30s but became a strong closer for some of the best teams in Minnesota history. Chance was a two-time All-Star and a starter on Twins teams in the late 1960s. That is quite the company for Thielbar, a reliever in his late 30s who was on the brink of retiring. Even with his age, Thielbar spent so much time in the minor leagues that he is still arbitration-eligible for one more season. Minnesota will likely bring him back for one more season to see what he has left in the tank for his age-37 season. The Twins front office hasn’t spent a lot of resources investing in the bullpen, but coaxing Thielbar out of retirement has been one of the most valuable acquisitions in recent years. What are your impressions of Thielbar over the last four seasons? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article