Cody Christie

The Twins have all but wrapped up the AL Central, with their magic number dwindling by the day. Here are three items the team needs to accomplish before the playoffs begin. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are inching closer to their third division title over the last five seasons, and the team will have a chance to clinch as soon as next week. The AL Central has been historically bad in 2023, but that might not stop the Twins from ending their 18-game playoff losing streak. Minnesota has strong starting pitching, an offense that has improved in the second half, and a strong backend of the bullpen. After the team clinches, items remain on the team’s postseason checklist. 1. Health Player health is at the top of any team’s checklist, especially near the conclusion of a 162-game season. The Twins have health questions surrounding multiple players in the season’s final weeks. Byron Buxton was rehabbing, hoping to return to center field for the Twins. He suffered a setback, and it remains unclear if he will return. Michael A. Taylor has performed well for the Twins in place of Buxton, but he, too, is on the IL with a hamstring injury. Minnesota doesn’t want to rush him back, but they also want to ensure he can handle the rigors of regular playing time. On the pitching side, other players are nearing a return. Jorge Alcala and Chris Paddack moved their rehab assignments to Double-A on Tuesday. Alcala has missed most of the last two seasons with arm injuries, so his path forward this year is unclear. Paddack is returning from Tommy John surgery, and Minnesota could use him in various roles for the stretch run. He seems unlikely to be stretched out to serve as a starter, but there is an opportunity to fit into the bullpen. Brock Stewart is a little behind Alcala and Paddack but should start a rehab assignment soon. Other players on the roster have been fighting through injuries that will need rest in the season’s final weeks. Carlos Correa has battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season, and the Twins have tried to give him small breaks when there are opportunities. Edouard Julien has a leg injury and could benefit from a few days off his feet. There should be opportunities to rest players down the stretch so they can be closer to 100% when the playoffs begin. 2. Experiment with Roles Center field has been a question mark since Taylor went on the IL with the Twins using a combination of Willi Castro and Andrew Stevenson. Taylor has already hit a career-high 20 home runs and is one of the game’s best outfield defenders. Minnesota needs to experiment with different options in center field if Buxton and Taylor aren’t an option for October. Castro has provided value to the Twins with his versatility and base running this season, but there are potentially some better options if health doesn’t interfere. The Twins are also experimenting with different roles in the bullpen. Louie Varland has shifted from starter to reliever with mixed results since being recalled by the Twins. Kody Funderburk has been one of the organization’s best relief prospects over the last two seasons, but the team didn’t call him up until late this season. There is also the possibility of the team needing to move some of the starters to a relief role for October. Kenta Maeda has playoff experience in a late-inning bullpen role, while Dallas Keuchel likely doesn’t have a spot in the playoff rotation. Will either of these pitchers make relief appearances in the season’s final weeks? 3. Line-Up Starting Pitching Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray have performed well recently, but neither has been a beacon of health throughout their professional careers. Lopez is nearing a career-high in innings after pitching 180 frames during the 2022 campaign. Gray has pitched over 140 innings for only the second time since 2018. Both pitchers will likely receive Cy Young votes this season, and the Twins need to find them extra days of rest before October. It’s more likely for Joe Ryan to be the team’s starter for Game 3 in the playoffs, but he’s also returning from a recent groin injury. Before his IL trip, he tried to pitch through the injury, and his performance suffered. He’s been significantly better in his handful of starts since returning from the IL, and the Twins hope this trend continues. Minnesota will want to ensure their top three starters are well-rested and lined up to pitch in the team’s Wild Card series. Would you add any other items to the team’s postseason checklist? Do you agree with the items on this checklist? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Trevor Larnach, a former first-round pick, has been hitting well at Triple-A, but he's fallen significantly on the team's depth chart. So, what's next for the player that was once considered a Top 100 prospect? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports The Twins drafted Trevor Larnach with the 20th overall pick in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft. He was coming off a tremendous college career where he posted a 1.116 OPS during his junior season, along with helping Oregon State to the College World Series title. Minnesota's current front office has preferred drafting powerful college bats, and Larnach fits that mold. Larnach's future outlook with the team is cloudy five years into his professional career. Larnach will turn 27 this winter, and he's played 180 games at the big-league level. There have been flashes of the power hitter the Twins drafted, but his overall performance has been underwhelming. In 669 plate appearances, he has hit .223/315/.380 (.695) with 31 doubles, three triples, and 18 home runs. His 94 OPS+ is below league average, and he's posted a 228-to-73 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Twins hoped for more from Larnach, especially entering the 2023 season. Multiple Twins players began the year on the injured list, which created a spot on the Opening Day roster for Larnach. In the season's first month, he hit .242/.354/.390 (.744) with seven extra-base hits in 28 games. The Twins sent him to Triple-A at the beginning of May, and he proceeded to go 7-for-14 with two doubles and two home runs before being called back up to Minnesota. He'd bounce back and forth throughout the season, but he's been in St. Paul since the end of July with seemingly no room for him on the big-league roster. Since his most recent demotion (33 games), Larnach has posted a .907 OPS with eight doubles, one triple, and six home runs. St. Paul's hitting environment is a little different than the big-league level, and one would expect him to hit well with his level of professional experience. However, some areas have caused him struggles since being drafted, including hitting versus offspeed pitches and finding consistent success against left-handed pitchers. Larnach has posted a .856 OPS versus right-handed pitchers for the season while being held to a .596 OPS against southpaws. Lefties have struck him out in 32 of his 79 at-bats this season, and only four of his 14 hits have been for extra bases when facing same-sided pitchers. The Twins have done a good job limiting his exposure to tough left-handed starters, but that also determines the value he can provide to the big-league club. He struggled with offspeed pitches as he moved up the organizational ladder. Larnach kills fastballs and has provided 10.8 runs above average when facing fastballs throughout his big-league career. Against all other breaking pitches, he has negative runs above average, including -7.8 against change-ups and -3.2 against sliders. Facing a lower level of competition at Triple-A likely won't help him improve against off-speed pitches, and it's one of the reasons he continues to find success at that level. Entering the 2024 season, Larnach has one option year remaining, but he has little left to prove at the Triple-A level. The Twins will have some decisions with the team's outfield for 2024. Max Kepler has a $10 million team option for 2024, and he's provided over $17 million in value this season. Matt Wallner has gone through his share of ups and downs, but he surpassed Larnach on the team's depth chart. Other players, including Gilberto Celestino, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin, might fit into the team's corner outfield plans. The Twins' front office values depth, which might be what Larnach represents at this point in his career. Last winter, there were conversations about the Twins being willing to trade from their corner outfield depth, and that might come to fruition again this offseason. Larnach will keep swinging away at Triple-A while waiting for another opportunity to prove he can be a full-time player. What role will Larnach fit on the Twins next season? Is he more than a platoon outfielder? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Bailey Ober has been sent down to Triple-A two times this year, and now he is shut down while the Twins are playing some of the team's most important games. So, did the Twins mishandle Ober this season? Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports Twins manager Rocco Baldelli was clear with Bailey Ober as spring training began. He was the sixth arm in the starting rotation and was only making the Opening Day roster if one of the arms in front of him was not ready. The Twins had been plagued by injuries in 2022, so it seemed likely for the injury bug to bite one of the starters. However, that wouldn't be the case. Ober pitched well in the spring by allowing three earned runs on four hits with a 0.70 WHIP and batters posting a .121 BA. On the depth chart, there were veterans ahead of him, so the Twins sent him to Triple-A. Ober said all the appropriate things when he was demoted, but it had to be frustrating for a pitcher with a proven track record at the big-league level. From 2021-22, he posted a 3.82 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a 147-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 148 1/3 innings. Injuries had been the biggest hindrance to Ober's performance, as he had never pitched more than 108 innings in any professional season. The Twins needed to monitor Ober's innings, especially if he stayed healthy for the entire season. Ober's time with the Saints got off to a poor start. In his first two starts, he didn't make it out of the fourth inning and allowed five earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Mentally, the demotion had to impacted his performance, but he turned it around from there. Over his next two starts, he pitched 11 shutout innings while limiting batters to five hits and striking out 12. Tyler Mahle suffered a season-ending injury at the big-league level, and Ober was the next man up. After the call-up, Ober became one of the team's most consistent and effective starting pitchers. In his first 16 starts (94 2/3 IP), he posted a 2.76 ERA with a 90-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Batters hit .215/.262/.366 (.628) against him, and it looked like Ober was lining up to be one of the team's starting pitchers in October. Unfortunately, Ober hit a wall as the calendar turned to August while he also passed a new career-high in innings pitched. Over his subsequent six appearances, Ober's performance struggled mightily. He allowed 21 earned runs in 28 innings with opponents hitting .328/.377/.588 (.965) against him, including eight home runs. The Twins decided it was time for Ober to get a breather, and the only way to make that happen was to demote him to Triple-A for the second time. "Bailey is as professional a young man as you're ever going to find in this game," Baldelli said. "The way he conducts himself every day of his life is very impressive, and I've had several conversations with him over the last couple of years that were not easy. Today was not an easy conversation, but I think long term, this setup, this move that we're making right now, is going to benefit him." Throughout the season's second half, the Twins had talked about finding subtle ways to limit Ober's innings. Some options included using piggybacking, a six-man rotation, or skipping starts to push back his spot in the order. During the 2021 season, he pitched 108 1/3 innings, a career high. Previously, he had never surpassed 80 innings in any of his seven professional seasons. Between Triple-A and the Majors, he has combined for 140 1/3 innings while also staying relatively healthy. He might be out of gas, but it's a critical time of the year to miss one of the team's best starters. Seeing how the Twins handle Ober for the season's remaining games will be interesting. He will get a few extra days to rest before he starts throwing again for the Saints. It also remains to be seen if the team will continue to use him as a starter. Minnesota already transitioned Louie Varland from a starter to a relief role for the stretch run, but Ober might not be the best candidate to move to the bullpen. The best strategy might be to give him shorter starts with someone ready to piggyback him so he can stay stretched out. Ober has proven himself at the big-league level and is part of the team's long-term plan for the starting rotation. It's tough not to think he's gotten the short end of the stick on multiple occasions this year. The team demoted him two times even though he had a proven track record at the big-league level. Also, the club talked about limiting his innings during the year, but that never came to fruition. Instead, he finds himself at Triple-A while the Twins fight for the division title. Perhaps the Twins followed the appropriate strategy with Ober by running him out there regularly until his performance started to suffer. However, the optics of the entire situation are not great from Ober's point of view. He lost service time at both ends of the season because of decisions made by the front office. The team will stress that it is the best thing for his health, but there were other ways to handle him during the season so he could be part of the team for the stretch run. Do you feel the Twins have handled Ober appropriately this season? Should veterans be treated differently by the front office? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

I wasn't really connecting the recent base running blunders to Correa. It was more of an intro to get people thinking about some of the players that might be considered poor base runners.

There have been some baserunning blunders for the Twins in recent weeks. So, who are the team's worst base runners so far in 2023? Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Like many teams, the Twins focused on improving base running this spring, including bringing in former manager Paul Molitor to provide instruction. It would be great if coaching and strategy could help a team improve on the base paths, but a team can't make giant strides without the appropriate personnel. Slow baserunners will continue to be slow baserunners, which has held true for Minnesota this season. Last week, FanGraphs ran through the players who get the least from their base running, and the Twins were featured prominently in the piece. The site uses a metric called Base Running (BsR) that includes stolen bases, caught stealing, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc.) into runs above and below average. The Twins have multiple players who rank poorly on the base paths, including some that may be surprising. Here are the team's five worst base runners. 5. Jose Miranda, 3B Base Running: -1.5 The Twins expected Miranda to play a pivotal role during the 2023 campaign, but a shoulder injury limited him to 40 games. Even in limited action, Miranda's poor base running was in full effect. Last season, he finished with a -4.5 BsR, ranking fourth worst on the Twins. He would rank significantly higher on this list if he played more games this season. Minnesota moved Miranda to the 60-day IL over the last week, so he won't get to improve his baserunning until the 2024 campaign. 4. Donovan Solano, UTL Base Running: -2.4 Solano has been integral to the Twins' line-up this season, hitting .294/.379/.411 (.790) with 24 doubles and five home runs. His 117 OPS+ is the second-highest total of his career. Despite a solid offensive season, Solano is among the team's worst base runners. Last season, he posted a -2.0 BsR in 80 games for the Reds, and his 2023 BsR total is the second lowest of his career. 3. Max Kepler, OF Base Running: -4.4 Kepler looks the part of a player who would be a strong base runner, including having a sprint speed in the 54th percentile. However, Baseball Savant ranks him in the 10th percentile for baserunning value, which is worth -2 runs. Kepler has yet to steal a base this season, and he's had limited opportunities to take an extra base. In previous seasons, Kepler has been an above-average runner, so his early season leg injuries might have hampered his overall numbers. 2. Christian Vazquez, C Base Running: -4.1 Catchers typically fill up the rankings of baseball's worst base runners, and Vazquez is no exception. Over the last two seasons, Vazquez has been baseball's least valuable baserunner by accumulating -14.0 BsR. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the second percentile for baserunning value and in the fifth percentile, which has cost the Twins three runs this season. His sprint speed is in the ninth percentile, so few runners are slower than Vazquez on the base paths. 1. Carlos Correa, SS Base Running: -7.7 Over the weekend, Carlos Correa set the team record by hitting into the most double plays in one season. He's been the team's worst base runner during the 2023 season, and only Vazquez has ranked worse than Correa over the last two seasons. Correa has dealt with plantar fasciitis throughout the season, which might have added to his poor baserunning. He has also been very aware of how slow he has been this season when talking to reporters. Correa has been undeniably slow, impacting the team throughout the season. How would you rank the Twins' worst baserunners? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Royce Lewis is developing into a superstar, with big moments finding him on a weekly basis. Looking back at his path to the big leagues, multiple evaluators, including myself, doubted him along the way. Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports I’ve written about Twins baseball since 2010 and ranked the team’s prospects throughout the past 14 seasons. It’s impossible to get everything right when evaluating young players in an organization. There were prospects I ranked highly that never put it all together, and others have exceeded expectations. Royce Lewis is one of the players who I thought had flaws in his game that would become more evident as he moved up the organizational ladder. It’s becoming more apparent that I was wrong about Mr. Lewis, but I wasn’t the only one who doubted him over the last six years. All three national prospect rankings placed Lewis among the baseball’s top-10 prospects entering the 2019 season. He would stay highly ranked through the pandemic, but multiple ACL tears meant he dropped to 40th or lower on the national lists. In December 2019, I asked if the Twins could fix Lewis’ swing. Entering the 2022 season, I wrote that Lewis’ stock was falling and included him with the likes of Keoni Cavaco and Blayne Enlow. Those are just a few examples of articles where I doubted the team’s top prospects at the time. Here is how some of the national writers were wrong about Lewis. MLB Pipeline: During the 2022 season, MLB Pipeline ranked Lewis as baseball’s number 46 prospect. It was the first time he dropped out of their top 20 since being drafted by the Twins. As part of their rankings, they considered that he would miss another 12 months after reinjuring the same ACL that kept him out the previous season. It was a tough pill to swallow for Twins fans and Lewis, but he stayed positive, and the results speak for themselves during the 2023 season. What They Said At the Time: “The main variance might be with his hit tool. He spent most of 2019 struggling being on time at the plate as he utilizes a big leg kick and has a busy swing, leading to a loss of approach.” Lewis is hitting above .300 for his big-league career with a 137 OPS+, so it seems his approach is working even with the amount of time he has missed during his career. The Athletic: Keith Law has been a prospect writer for ESPN and The Athletic for decades after working in the Toronto Blue Jays front office. Throughout Lewis’s professional career, Law continued to rank the shortstop among his top 100 prospects while pointing out the player’s flaws on both sides of the ball. Law might have been right about moving Lewis off shortstop, but his evaluation of Lewis’s swing has not been correct. What They Said At the Time: “Before the 2019 season, he adopted a high leg kick and big hand movement, but instead of driving the ball more he would bail out more often and make weak contact on stuff away. The Twins have worked with him to get him more online so he can work toward the middle of the field, making better quality contact and letting him use his legs more often. Lewis is rough at shortstop, with all of the athleticism and speed to play there but well below-average actions and instincts.” Lewis has shown the ability to drive the ball to all fields and continues to showcase a powerful swing that wasn’t anticipated when the Twins originally drafted him. FanGraphs: Like the evaluations above, the Fangraphs prospect team felt there were flaws to Lewis’s swing that would limit his overall value. Despite an MVP AFL performance, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel felt Lewis needed to get better at pitch recognition and eliminate some elements of his swing. What They Said At the Time: “Lewis still clearly had issues. His swing is cacophonous — the big leg kick, the messy, excessive movement in his hands — and it negatively impacts Lewis’ timing. He needs to start several elements of the swing early just to catch fastballs, and he’s often late anyway. This also causes him to lunge at breaking balls, which Lewis doesn’t seem to recognize very well, and after the advanced hit tool was a huge driver of his amateur profile, Lewis now looks like a guess hitter.” Lewis has hit for average and power during his first 50+ games in the big leagues, and the Twins hope his new approach will make him a middle-of-the-order hitter for the next decade. What other national outlets were wrong about Lewis? Can he continue to perform at this level throughout his big-league career? Which prospects have you been wrong about in the past? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins traded for Pablo Lopez while hoping he would provide a top-of-the-rotation arm to help the team keep open their winning window. His Twins tenure is off to a terrific start, and he has a chance to finish the year among the best seasons from a starting pitcher in team history. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Twins fans will look back on the Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez trade for quite some time. Arraez was a fan favorite, and Lopez was viewed as a good but maybe not great starting pitcher. The Twins' front office felt that Lopez had more to offer as a starting pitcher and believed he could become a top-of-the-rotation starter. However, looking at his previous track record, that wasn't completely evident. Lopez was coming off a solid season where he posted a 3.75 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP in 180 innings. He compiled an 8.7 K/9, which was his lowest total since 2019. There were also some signs of him tiring as his ERA rose from 2.86 in the first half to 4.97 in the second half. In his first four seasons with Miami, he posted a 4.04 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 1.20 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. He was a solid starter, but the Twins believed they could get more from Lopez in 2023. Like many pitchers across baseball, Lopez added a sweeper over the last year, which has become one of his best secondary pitches. Opponents have hit .183 against his sweeper with a .310 SLG with a 35.6 Whiff%. His only pitch with a higher Whiff% is his curveball (38.4%), but he's thrown this pitch over 200 times less than his other secondary pitches and primarily used it against lefties. His velocity has increased on all his pitches, with his fastball seeing the most significant increase at 1.4 mph. His increase in velocity and the addition of his sweeper have impacted his overall performance. Lopez's peripheral data also points to his improvements this season. He ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, BB%, K%, and Whiff%. His best categories include ranking in the 91st percentile for chase rate and 97th percentile for extension. For some perspective, he ranked in the 50th percentile or lower in many of the categories mentioned above in 2022. Lopez is four strikeouts away from becoming the Twins' first 200-strikeout pitcher since Jose Berrios in 2018. With seven more strikeouts, he will have the most strikeouts by a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana reached 235 strikeouts in 2007. Only two pitchers in team history, Bert Blyleven and Santana, have collected more than 235 strikeouts, and that is a total Lopez can reach before the season's end. Santana and Lopez are both Venezuelan natives, and the latter grew up idolizing the former left-handed Cy Young winner. Lopez, like Santana, has a strong change-up that can be a strikeout weapon. He might not be watching the strikeout totals for the season, especially with his team in the division race. However, he has a chance to be mentioned in the same company as his boyhood idol, which must be a thrill. "Consistency with a process can lead to consistency with results," Lopez told reporters. "It's gotten to the point when you want to focus on quality over quantity when it comes to getting your work in. Every start will tell you something to work on for the next one. It's just keeping that consistency with the process [that] will hopefully lead to the rest." The Twins will have to be careful with their usage of Lopez down the stretch, especially if the team can stretch their lead in the AL Central. It would be great for him to reach the top-10 on the team's single-season strikeout list, but not at the cost of him being out of gas in October. How many strikeouts can Lopez accumulate this season? How will you remember his first season in a Twins uniform? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Yesterday, the Twins missed out on multiple reliever options on the waiver wire, so now the team's focus turns to internal options. Minnesota hopes these three arms will be able to return from injury and bolster the bullpen for the stretch run. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have relied heavily on specific relievers throughout the 2023 campaign, including Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Emilio Pagan, and Caleb Thielbar. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has different levels of trust in these players, which makes it tough to employ a bullpen strategy from one close game to another. For most of the season, the Twins have needed this group to be flawless, which is a tall task for any bullpen. Minnesota had an opportunity to add to the bullpen group at the trade deadline. However, the club's only move was to ship Jorge Lopez to the Marlins for Dylan Floro. Floro's Twins tenure has gone imperfectly, as he has allowed seven earned runs in ten innings with a 2.00 WHIP and 13.5 H/9. The Twins front office might have been a little gun-shy when pulling the trigger on another reliever trade after trading multiple prospects for Lopez at last year's trade deadline. Instead, the team hopes these three players can effectively return from injury and join the bullpen picture. Brock Stewart, RHP Stewart was a revelation in the Twins bullpen earlier this season. In 25 2/3 innings, he posted a 0.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and 12.3 K/9. It was his first taste of the big leagues since 2019 after multiple arm issues, including Tommy John surgery and a second procedure to remove a bone spur. Stewart initially landed on the injured list on June 27th with soreness in his right forearm. At the time, the Twins hoped he'd be able to return shortly, but there have been setbacks throughout his ramp-up process. Stewart threw a 15-pitch bullpen session on August 25th and reported feeling good the following day. He threw all fastballs during the session and sat between 88-91 mph. His next bullpen session was on Monday, August 28th, and he will likely need another bullpen session after that. Stewart told reporters that his target return date is September 10th as a best-case scenario. Returning then would give him a couple of weeks to prove he can be effective for the team's postseason roster. Chris Paddack, RHP Last season, Kenta Maeda was returning from Tommy John surgery, and the Twins talked about adding him to the bullpen for the stretch run. Unfortunately, Minnesota fell apart in September, and there was no reason to rush Maeda back to the big leagues. Paddack is 15 months removed from Tommy John surgery and has been ramping up his workload in Fort Myers. According to reports, he has been hitting 95 mph, which is a good sign for his progression. Paddack told reporters he expects to begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Fort Myers on September 6th and he hopes to be ready for big-league action on September 22nd. Minnesota signed Paddack to a three-year extension in January, so he is part of the team's long-term plans as a starter. He likely hasn't built up to a starter's workload at this point in his recovery, so switching to the bullpen is intriguing. His pitch mix has traditionally included a four-seam fastball, a changeup, and a curveball. For his career, he has held left-handed batters to a .686 OPS, while righties have posted a .735 OPS. It would be interesting to see if he can add more velocity to his pitching arsenal if he is being used in a relief role. Jorge Alcala, RHP The Twins hoped Alcala would take the next step and become an integral part of the bullpen picture. He was placed on the IL back in the middle of May with a stress fracture to the radius bone in his right forearm. It is an uncommon injury for pitchers, making his timeline tough to predict. He's also been limited to 12 appearances over the last two seasons, so he seems the least likely contributor among this trio of pitchers. Alcala told reporters last Friday that he has thrown five bullpen sessions and is lined up to pitch another one later this week. One of those sessions included throwing live BP to Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff before they headed to St. Paul on a rehab assignment. "I'm hoping he'll be available towards the end of the season," president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. "We're not ruling that out, but we don't have a timeline yet." Which pitcher can be most helpful to the Twins bullpen? What are the chances any of these injured players impact the team's postseason chances? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Cleveland sits in second place in the AL Central with a little over a month left in the season. So, how will their waiver wire additions impact the division race? Image courtesy of Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports On Thursday, the Cleveland Guardians claimed a trio of pitchers, one starter and two relievers, off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels. Right-handed starter Lucas Giolito will join the top of a starting rotation that includes rookie pitchers Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. Cleveland's bullpen has also struggled at times, so adding RHP Reynaldo Lopez and LHP Matt Moore should provide a boost for the stretch run. With fewer than 30 games left, how much can these players impact Cleveland's chances to repeat as AL Central Champions? Lucas Giolito, RH SP Giolito last pitched on Monday for the Angels, so he can jump into the Guardians' rotation over the weekend. He would likely be able to make six starts for Cleveland before the season's end. During the 2023 season, Giolito has posted a 4.45 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 in 153 2/3 innings. His numbers were even worse after being traded to the Angels, as he allowed 25 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings. He is having a disappointing season and is heading to free agency for the first time. Potential Value: In his best six-game stretch this season, Giolito accumulated 0.43 WPA while holding batters to a .617 OPS. If he has a great September, he has the potential to provide more than 0.50 WPA. Reynaldo Lopez, RH RP Twins fans will be very familiar with Lopez from his time with the White Sox. He is considered a solid set-up man, and his numbers improved following the trade deadline. Before the trade, he posted a 4.29 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 across 43 appearances with the White Sox. He allowed four earned runs over 13 innings in LA while striking out 19 batters. There is some element of small sample size involved with any reliever, but Cleveland's bullpen has gone through some ups and downs, so he will be a welcomed addition. Potential Value: Lopez actually provided a -0.10 WPA with the Angels, even though his overall numbers were strong. In his last two appearances, he took a loss and got a blown save. Twins fans can hope that version of Lopez arrives in Cleveland. Matt Moore, LH RP Matt was a top prospect as a starting pitcher with the Rays but has added years to his career by shifting to a left-handed relief role. In 41 appearances (44 IP), he has posted a 2.66 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. He has reverse splits this season, with righties posting a .545 OPS and lefties combining for a .924 OPS. The Guardians are 21-25 in one-run games and have a 5-12 record this season when tied after seven innings. Moore and Lopez can change that equation for the stretch run. Potential Value: Moore had a sub-2.00 ERA in April and May, but his ERA has been over two runs higher since an IL stint in June. Over the last month, he had a slightly below-zero WPA while allowing multiple runs in two of his last four appearances. Cleveland traded players away at the deadline despite being in striking distance of the Twins. Now, they prevented Minnesota from making any waiver claims despite being multiple games back in the standings. Cleveland's manager, Terry Francona, is in his final month of a Hall of Fame career. The Guardians may be hoping for some late-season magic to surpass the Twins, but these three players are limited in how much value they can provide in a small sample size. The Guardians improved on Thursday, while the Twins couldn't make any additions because of their waiver position. Cleveland can likely cut into Minnesota's division lead over the next month because of this weird waiver quirk. Next week's three-game series between the two AL Central foes will take on even more meaning, with these three waiver claims possibly playing a vital role. How much will these three players impact the AL Central race? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Max Kepler's second-half resurgence has helped keep the Twins at the top of the AL Central. Winning can help build confidence in a clubhouse, but there haven't been all positive vibes in recent Twins history. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Clubhouse culture can be complex for fans to gauge from the outside. If the club wins, many of the team's players will report that everything is going great, even if clubhouse issues are under the surface. On the other hand, a clubhouse can devolve into disarray when a club is in the middle of a long losing streak. Fans will point to the team's coaching staff or the veteran players for building a toxic work environment, but things are not always that simple. Max Kepler looked lost at different points in the first half of the season. He provided little offensive value, and his excellent defense seemed to erode. In 64 first-half games, he hit .207/.279/.409 (.688) with five doubles and 12 home runs. Many fans called for him to be replaced on the roster by a younger left-handed corner outfielder like Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach. Minnesota's front office may have overvalued Kepler in the past, but their faith in him is being rewarded in the stretch run. Instead of dropping him, the team stuck with Kepler, and he has been one of the team's best hitters. In 39 second-half games, he has hit .319/.383/.609 (.992) with 13 doubles and nine home runs. He told Ken Rosenthal that it wasn't any specific adjustment that he made. "I can't just credit me as an individual," Kepler said. "It has to do with how the whole clubhouse chemistry kind of changed in the second half." He went on to say, "Teammates were rooting more for each other. You could really feel that. There is so much individuality that comes with this sport, especially when you hear, 'it's a business.' Players switch up (teams) a lot. Sometimes clubhouses feel disconnected. But in the second half, we all got off on the right page." Kepler has been on other Twins teams that have tried to build a solid clubhouse culture. During Kepler's rookie season, he joined a Twins roster that included Torii Hunter in his final big-league season. Hunter brought a different attitude to the Twins, including dance parties after wins with lights and smoke machines. The Twins finished above .500, an accomplishment for a team that had lost 92 games or more in four consecutive seasons. During the current season, the Twins have revitalized the clubhouse dance parties, which could be one reason for the team's success. Not everything has been sunshine and roses in the Twins clubhouse in recent seasons. Minnesota's front office made an unconventional move by bringing in Josh Donaldson with a four-year deal worth $92 million guaranteed leading into the 2020 season. At the time, it was the richest free-agent deal in franchise history and the second-largest MLB contract for a player 33 or older. The Twins were coming off a season when the club set a big-league record with 307 home runs, and Donaldson was seen as a veteran piece that could help the club win. However, he had a reputation for rubbing some people the wrong way, which might have impacted the team's clubhouse culture. The Twins won the AL Central during Donaldson's first season with the club, but injuries limited him to 28 games. He also wasn't available for the playoffs when Houston swept Minnesota. Donaldson bounced back in 2021 to play 135 games while posting a 127 OPS+. However, the Twins were a mess for a large portion of the season and finished with a 73-89 record, which was 20 games out of first place. Following the season, the Twins traded Donaldson to the Yankees while wiping the last two years of his contract off the books. Last week, Jeff Passan appeared on the Michael Kay Show and was asked about Donaldson and the trade that brought him to New York. He said, "Especially because the Yankees knew just how poorly he was getting along with people in Minnesota," continued Passan. "There was some toxicity going on there in Minnesota. I don't think you can look at the Donaldson trade in a positive way." As Parker pointed out on X, there are many ways to view the term toxic. It's usually associated with poor clubhouse culture, but there was also an edge to Donaldson that the front office felt was needed on the team. In hindsight, the Twins were lucky to find a trade partner for Donaldson because he has been a below-average hitter during his Yankees tenure. New York is currently in last place in the AL East, while the Twins sit at the top of the AL Central and the Yankees released Donaldson on Tuesday. Did culture play a role in both teams' performance? It probably depends on who you ask, but Kepler clearly thinks the Twins' culture is helping the team win. How vital is clubhouse culture? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

It's been clear for some time that the Twins needed a boost to the bullpen in the second half. Enter Kody Funderburk, one of the organization’s top relief pitchers over the last two seasons. According to Darren Wolfson, the Twins will be calling up the former Dallas Baptist slugger! Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily The Twins drafted Kody Funderburk in the 15th round of the 2018 MLB Draft from Dallas Baptist University. He split time in college as a hitter and a pitcher, but Minnesota drafted him to be on the mound. During his final collegiate season, he posted a 6.84 ERA with a 1.72 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. The Twins saw enough in his performance that the club believed he could improve on the mound, especially if he focused solely on pitching. During his professional debut, Minnesota sent Funderburk to Elizabethton, one of the team’s rookie league teams at the time. In ten appearances (nine starts), he had a 4.93 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP. He was surrendering over 11.0 H/9, which is too much contact for a pitcher that was older for the level. There was room for improvement in his performance, and Funderburk would get his first taste of full-season leagues in 2019. Funderburk started the next season with one relief appearance at High-A (Fort Myers). He pitched 3 1/3 scoreless innings on two hits with two strikeouts and a walk. The Twins sent him to Low-A for the majority of the next season, where he made 12 appearances (10 starts). In 50 innings, he posted a 4.68 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and a 55-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He lowered his H/9 to 8.1 for the season while increasing his strikeout rate. There were signs of improvement, but now the non-existent 2020 minor league season would become a factor. After the pandemic, Funderburk began the year as a starter at High-A with some positive results. In 45 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.18 ERA with 59 strikeouts and 21 walks. He only allowed one home run and held opponents to a .199/.298/.259 (.557) slash line. The Twins promoted him to Double-A for the stretch run, and he became a dominant multi-inning reliever. Funderburk posted a 1.25 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and held batters to a .286 SLG. His first taste of the bullpen went well and was a sign of things coming for the lefty. Minnesota sent Funderburk to the AFL following the 2021 season, but he was used primarily as a starting pitcher. The AFL is known as a hitter’s league, and Funderburk’s numbers point to some struggles. He allowed 12 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings but posted an 11.2 K/9. He would pitch the entire 2022 season at Double-A with time as a starter and reliever. In 17 starts (70 2/3 innings), he posted a 3.44 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. He compiled a 1.98 ERA out of the bullpen with a 26-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 36 1/3 innings. Funderburk continued to surrender too many hits in a relief role, which can’t occur to move up the organizational ladder. For the 2023 season, the Twins wanted Funderburk to focus on his relief role. He began the year back at Double-A, where he was over a year older than the average age of the competition. He pitched nine innings across five appearances and limited batters to one earned run on eight hits with 14.0 K/9. Before the end of April, the Twins promoted Funderburk to Triple-A, where he immediately became one of the club’s best left-handed relief options. In 52 innings, he has posted a 2.60 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and 13.0 K/9. Outside of those totals, his pitching profile points to potential success at the big-league level. Even as a lefty, Funderburk has posted reverse splits throughout the 2023 campaign. Right-handed batters have hit .184/.258/.234 (.492) against him with 52 strikeouts in 141 at-bats. Lefties have slashed .203/.337/.279 (.615) with 37 strikeouts and 15 walks across 95 plate appearances. His cutter is the pitch he throws most regularly, and it typically sits in the low-90s. Funderburk’s left-handed arm action is unique, and it helps his pitches have more east-west movement to keep batters off-balance. He’s looked big-league-ready for quite some time, and now he will get that opportunity. What should the expectations be for Funderburk? What can he provide the Twins in the stretch run? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

If the Twins want to end their playoff losing streak, there will be a lot of pressure put on the starting rotation’s performance. Here’s how the rotation stacks up as the season enters the final month. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports FanGraphs projects the Twins to have more than a 95% chance to win the AL Central with only weeks remaining in the season. Last year, Minnesota fell apart in September and saw Cleveland take the AL Central title. It seems unlikely that will happen again in 2023, but Minnesota sports fans have suffered enough heartbreak to know anything is possible. The team has suffered a record 18-straight playoff losses, but this team has the frontline starting pitching to help a team win in October. Before laying out the rotation, it’s important to note that a lot can happen in the season’s final weeks. That’s one of the reasons the Twins are considering shifting to a six-man rotation as Joe Ryan returns from the IL. This shift allows the team to give starters more rest during the stretch run and to set up the rotation for better success in the playoffs. If the postseason started today, here’s how the Twins would ideally set up their starting rotation. Game 1 Starter: Pablo Lopez Lopez was the Twins’ Opening Day starter and was a first-time All-Star this season. His performance has had some ups and downs throughout the season, but he’s been one of the team’s best starters since the All-Star break. In his last seven starts (42 IP), he has posted a 2.14 ERA with a 46-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lopez pitched a career-high 180 innings during the 2022 season, but there were signs of him tiring down the stretch. The Twins will look to avoid that problem this season, with him already approaching 160 innings. Game 2 Starter: Sonny Gray Like Lopez, Gray was an All-Star and the team’s best-starting pitcher in the first half. He posted a 2.89 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in just under 100 innings pitched before the All-Star break. In July, Gray seemed to tire, with his ERA rising to 4.85 with a 7.9 K/9. He turned it back around in August with a 2.81 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in his first four appearances. For the playoffs, the Twins must monitor how Gray is utilized. He has struggled when facing a line-up for the third time, so the team might need to limit his appearance to five innings or less. Game 3 Starter: Kenta Maeda Entering the season, few would have predicted that Maeda would be lining up to start a playoff game for the Twins. He is in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery and started the season at the back of the team’s rotation. Earlier in the season, Maeda missed time with a right forearm strain, which made his recent performance even more improbable. Over the last 11 games, he has posted a 2.91 ERA while holding opponents to a .654 OPS. His recent performance should stack up nicely compared to other team’s number three starters. Game 4 Starter*: Bailey Ober MLB’s playoff structure means the Twins only need three starters for the opening-round Wild Card series. Things can get a little more intriguing if the Twins win a playoff series for the first time since 2002. Ober has been one of the team’s most consistent starting pitchers, but he has already pitched a career-high in innings. If he tires down the stretch, the Twins will need to move a different starter into the playoff rotation, and there are a few options on the table. Other Options: Joe Ryan, Dallas Keuchel, Louie Varland Joe Ryan was a borderline All-Star in the first half and would have easily made the team’s postseason rotation. He became home run prone while hiding a groin injury, so the Twins hope his performance will improve as he returns from the IL. Twins fans might be slightly scared about the possibility of Keuchel starting a playoff game in October. For him to get a postseason start, there would need to be multiple injuries or poor performance from those ahead of Keuchel on the team’s depth chart. Varland hasn’t started a big-league game since the middle of June, but he still figures into the team’s long-term plans. It’s also possible for some of these starters to move to a bullpen role over the season’s final weeks. What will change with the rotation in the season’s final weeks? How would you line up the team’s starters for October? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Mookie Betts returns to Boston this weekend for the first time since his trade from the Red Sox to the Dodgers. The Twins are eternally connected to his blockbuster trade, even if it took a roundabout way for the deal to transpire. Image courtesy of Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports In February 2020, the Red Sox were actively shopping Mookie Betts and had agreed to the parameters of a three-team deal. The deal initially would have sent Mookie Betts and David Price to LA, Alex Verdugo and Brusdar Graterol to Boston, and Kenta Maeda to Minnesota. Boston developed reservations about Graterol after getting a better look at his medicals. They requested that the Twins include another top prospect to balance the trade. Minnesota scoffed at this request and pulled out of the trade. Graterol's injury history was well known at the time, so it's unclear what Boston saw in his medicals that prompted the position change. He had Tommy John surgery as a prospect and suffered a shoulder impingement during his first season in the big leagues. The Red Sox weren't sending any players to the Twins in the original trade, so there needed to be more reason for Minnesota to include another prospect in the proposed deal. Even after the first trade collapsed, the Dodgers and Red Sox were able to complete a trade for Betts. Los Angeles acquired Betts and Price in exchange for outfielder Alex Verdugo, catcher Connor Wong, and infielder Jeter Downs. Verdugo has posted a 108 OPS+ in his four seasons since the trade, while Wong settled into a backup catcher role. Downs was considered a good prospect at the time of the deal, but he struggled in the minors, and the Nationals claimed him off waivers last December. At the same time, Betts is in the conversation for the NL MVP award and is arguably one of baseball's best overall players. The Twins were able to work out a separate trade with the Dodgers that included the same major piece from both clubs. Los Angeles received Graterol, Luke Raley, and the 67th selection in the 2020 MLB Draft. (Note - MLB draft picks cannot be traded except for the Competitive Balance picks.) Minnesota acquired Kenta Maeda, Jair Camargo, and cash considerations. It's been over three years since the two teams agreed to the trade, so both organizations have a clearer picture of the results. Maeda has made 47 starts in his Twins tenure while posting a 108 ERA+ with 10.2 K/9 and 4.53 K/W. He was the 2020 AL Cy Young runner-up after posting an MLB-leading 0.75 WHIP with a 2.70 ERA. Minnesota's desperately needed help in the starting rotation, and Maeda has exceeded expectations when he has been healthy. He's heading toward free agency for the first time in his career, and how he finishes the 2023 season might change his outlook. There is a possibility the Twins could make him a qualifying offer to keep him under team control for one more season at a high average value (roughly $20 million). Overall, his time in a Twins uniform has been respectable with injuries taking away some of his value. Graterol shifted to the bullpen with the Dodgers and is having arguably his best season with the club. In 55 appearances, he has posted a 1.50 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a career-high 1.8 rWAR. For a reliever, his strikeout totals have remained low, with a 7.0 K/9 for his career despite a triple-digit fastball. Los Angeles has trusted him in more late-inning situations over the last two seasons, with 27 games finished and ten saves. He's been a decent middle-of-the-bullpen option on some strong Dodgers teams. The other prospects involved in the trade have found differing success levels. Jair Camargo has hit .251/.316/.502 (.818) with 15 doubles and 18 home runs for the St. Paul Saints while continuing to play catcher. Raley has bounced to multiple organizations before finding a home in Tampa Bay this year. In 100 games, he has posted an .855 OPS with 20 doubles, three triples, and 18 home runs. Los Angeles used the draft pick they acquired from Minnesota to draft Clayton Beeter, a right-handed starting pitcher. Last year, he was traded from the Dodgers to the Yankees for Joey Gallo, and he earned a spot in the 2023 Futures Game. It will be interesting for fans to follow his career because of the multiple Twins connections. Minnesota's direct connection to the Betts trade didn't come to fruition, but it's a move fans can look back on through a specific lens. Would Graterol have performed better for the Red Sox? Who would the Twins have selected with the draft pick the club traded away? There are many unanswered questions even multiple years after this trade. How would you grade this trade in retrospect? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have talked about a six-man rotation since spring training. In the season's final weeks, the timing might be suitable for the team to execute this strategy and put the team in a better position for the playoffs. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports After an injury-plagued 2022 season, the Twins front office has prioritized depth at multiple positions when building the 2023 roster. That included trading fan favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez last winter. With the move, the Twins pushed Bailey Ober, an established big-league starter, to the sixth spot on the rotational depth chart behind Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. Mahle and Maeda were returning from injuries, so there was some question as to whether or not injuries would impact the rotation before the team headed north from Fort Myers. Minnesota stayed healthy this spring and decided against a six-man rotation to begin the year. Ober headed to Triple-A, and Mahle and Maeda occupied the rotation's final two spots. Teams can never have too much pitching, and that adage has shown to be true during the 2023 campaign. Mahle was limited to five starts before needing Tommy John surgery. Maeda headed to the injured list with a right triceps strain and missed 51 games. Minnesota's rotation continued to thrive, but the rigors of a 162-game season might mean the timing is right to revisit the idea of a six-man rotation. Joe Ryan's imminent return from the IL is just one of the reasons the Twins are considering a six-man rotation. Ryan was a borderline All-Star in the first half before becoming home run-prone in the second half. Eventually, he admitted to the team that he was dealing with a groin injury. Dallas Keuchel filled his roster spot and has seen mixed results during his Twins tenure. Keuchel's performance will play a prominent role in the team's plan for a six-man rotation, but more on that later. Other pitchers' performances are pushing the Twins toward considering a six-man rotation. Bailey Ober has already passed his career high in innings pitched and hasn't looked nearly as sharp in recent outings. Over his last five starts (24 IP), he has allowed 16 earned runs in 24 innings pitched with 26 strikeouts and seven walks. Home runs have been one of the most significant issues, as he has surrendered six home runs, and opponents have posted a .953 OPS against him. To manage his workload, the Twins can shift to a six-man rotation, giving him fewer starts during the stretch run. Kenta Maeda has been one of the Twins' best pitchers in the second half, with a 3.46 ERA and a 53-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just under 42 second-half innings pitched. However, he is the oldest pitcher in the rotation and is in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. If the Twins want Maeda to be 100% in October, it might be best to give him time to recuperate between starts the rest of the way. Sonny Gray was an All-Star in the first half and compiled some video game numbers in the process. He hasn't looked as sharp in recent outings, especially in the third time through a line-up. Gray's ERA is 1.7 runs higher in innings 4-6 than innings 1-3 and jumps to a 12.60 ERA in innings 7-9. Batters have a .507 OPS against Gray during their first plate appearance and a .670 OPS in the second and third time facing him. In the playoffs, starters are usually pulled after five innings or fewer, so this might work in Gray's favor down the stretch. So, who is available to fill the sixth rotation spot? The Dallas Keuchel experiment has seen some positive results, with the Twins winning two of his first three starts. He took a perfect game into the seventh inning against a lowly Pirates line-up after getting blown up by the Phillies in his previous start. Minnesota's leash with Keuchel is likely short, but Louie Varland has also performed well at Triple-A. If neither fits into the rotation, they are both options to move to a bullpen role for the stretch run. Will a six-man rotation benefit the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and join the discussion. View full article