Cody Christie

Major League Baseball is experiencing a payroll crisis, with teams across the league cutting costs--ostensibly due to uncertainty surrounding regional television networks. Many teams cut payroll leading into the 2024 campaign, so let’s examine the five who cut the highest percentage of their 2023 salaries. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Much has been written about the Minnesota Twins and their payroll situation this winter. However, they were hardly the only club looking to cut costs due to the evaporating regional television markets (or at least, with that circumstance as cover for applying downward pressure on player salaries). Opening Day is at the end of March, and some of the top free agents remain unsigned because teams cut back on their spending for 2024. The Twins were one of the teams who trimmed their payroll for the upcoming season, but where do they rank in the top five? Honorable Mentions: Milwaukee Brewers (-12%), Detroit Tigers (-9.1%), and New York Mets (-7.9%) 5. Texas Rangers 2023 Payroll: $251 million 2024 Payroll: $220 million Payroll Drop: -12.4% The Rangers won the franchise's first World Series last year. That meant a big bump in revenue from their long playoff run and renewed interest in the team, leading to more season ticket sales. However, this winter, the Rangers' television deal affected the club’s free-agent spending. Initially, Texas had a deal with Diamond Sports to pay them $111 million annually, but they are expected to receive somewhere between $90-100 million for the upcoming season. Like the Twins, they don’t know where their home will be after the 2024 season, and that uncertainty has caused the team to be more cautious this winter. 4. Colorado Rockies 2023 Payroll: $171 million 2024 Payroll: $145 million Payroll Drop: -15.3% Colorado was one of the teams dropped by Diamond Sports in the middle of last season, causing MLB to shift television plans on the fly. For 2024, fans living in the club’s home television territory can purchase a package to watch all Rockies games in-market both live and on-demand. The package costs $99.99 for the season or $19.99 per month. The Rockies are one of baseball’s worst-run organizations, so their spending likely won’t impact their finish in the NL West. 3. Minnesota Twins 2023 Payroll: $156 million 2024 Payroll: $128 million Payroll Drop: -17.9% The Twins' payroll situation has been discussed at length from multiple perspectives at Twins Daily. For much of the offseason, it seemed like they would be heading toward a plan similar to the Rockies', since the team’s deal with Diamond Sports expired after the regular season. Instead, Minnesota agreed to a one-year deal to stay on Bally Sports North. Last season, the Twins made a bit less than $60 million from their television deal. This year, under the new short-term arrangement, they're expected to make between $40-50 million. (The exact total has not been reported, which says plenty on its own.) For fans, the entire television and payroll situation has been frustrating on multiple fronts. First, team officials made comments about blackouts being removed, which won’t happen in 2024. Second, the team received an influx of revenue with the new TV deal, but the team didn’t spend any more on the payroll after that unexpected infusion. Twins fans might be frustrated, but fans of the following two teams have even more to complain about. 2. Los Angeles Angels 2023 Payroll: $230 million 2024 Payroll: $174 million Payroll Drop: -24.4% The Angels are another one of the teams impacted by the ongoing bankruptcy issues with Diamond Sports. Some of this drop in payroll is also tied to the loss of Shohei Ohtani, who made $30 million last season in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Last season was a one-year payroll jump for the Angels in an attempt to get to the playoffs before Ohtani left for free agency. The club has hovered between $179-$182 million in payroll since the 2020 season. Los Angeles also caused a stir last season when they placed five players on waivers less than a month after trading for many of them at the deadline. It was an attempt by the front office to drop the team’s payroll under the luxury tax threshold, which they were able to do by $30,000. 1. San Diego Padres 2023 Payroll: $256 million 2024 Payroll: $160 million Payroll Drop: -37.5% The Padres have been interesting to follow of late, because their market is smaller than Minnesota, but they have outspent the Twins. San Diego was forced to trade Juan Soto this winter to clear his $31.5-million salary, an arbitration record, from their bloated books. They still have four players with an average annual contract value of over $20 million (Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Joe Musgrove). On the television side, the team was in the middle of a 20-year, $1.2-billion contract before being dropped by Diamond Sports in the middle of last season. Fans in the Padres viewing area can sign up for a television deal similar to the Rockies' through MLB’s streaming platform. Revenue and payroll issues will continue impacting teams until baseball has more clarity on regional TV rights. Regional sports networks have been vital to revenue and growth, but it’s time for baseball to update its antiquated rules about blackouts and find ways to reach a bigger audience. Without adjusting, baseball will continue to lose fans, which will have long-term impacts on the game’s growth. If the owners are using this as a cheap guise under which to tighten the screws in the run-up to the next collective bargaining negotiations with the MLBPA, that goes double. Did you expect the Twins to rank higher or lower on this list? Were any of the teams a surprise? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins must rely on depth at multiple positions to stay in contention during the 2024 season. Here are three names who were previously part of the team’s long-term plans before injuries derailed their path. Image courtesy of Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports Fans can be excited when a top prospect reaches the majors and has high success. However, there can be growing pains as the league adjusts to a player, which is only heightened when a player attempts to play through injuries. Each of the trio below has a different focus for the 2024 season, but they all need to prove they are healthy to work their way back into the team’s long-term plans. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/DH High Point (May 2023): .314/.448/.486 (.934), 3 2B, 3 HR Minnesota felt worried enough about Kirilloff’s injury history to bring in Carlos Santana, with the team planning for the veteran to get most of the starts at first base. In October, Kirilloff had shoulder surgery, but there was no tear to his labrum, so doctors were able to use a less invasive surgery. Kirilloff was considered one of the best pure-hitting prospects to come through the Twins organization in quite some time. He’s shown flashes of that hitting ability, but injuries have far too often impacted his overall career numbers. Last May, Kirilloff carried the team’s offense with a 167 wRC+ and a 7.1 Offense Above Average. The team might be planning on him playing more DH this season, but there is no question that his hitting profile can change the line-up’s entire dynamic. José Miranda, 1B/DH High Point (July 2022): .353/.405/.603 (1.008), 2 2B, 5 HR Unlike Kirilloff, Miranda isn’t projected to make the Twins’ Opening Day roster, so he must hit his way back to the big leagues in St. Paul. Like Kirilloff, Miranda had offseason shoulder surgery with his procedure removing scar tissue from his right labrum and rotator cuff. Early in camp, he was limited to designated hitter duties, but he is starting to get some work in at first base, a position with which he is less familiar. Hopes were high for Miranda entering the 2023 season after he posted a 114 OPS+ with 25 doubles and 15 home runs during a tremendous rookie campaign. His shoulder bothered him throughout the 2023 season, and he struggled to hit .211/.263/.303 (.566) with seven extra-base hits in 40 games. The offensive bar is higher at first base/DH than at third base, so he must prove he can hit like he did in 2022. Jorge Alcalá, RP High Point (Sept/Oct 2021): 0.71 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 15 K, .309 OPS, 12 2/3 IP Few fans get overly excited about a pitching prospect heading for a bullpen role, but Alcalá has shown brief stints of what he can mean to the team’s relief core. During spring training, he has been hitting in the upper 90s with his fastball, which is an encouraging sign for the reliever who has battled injuries over the last two seasons. In 2021, it looked like Alcalá might be entering the team’s long-term bullpen plans, but elbow and forearm issues have held him to 19 2/3 innings over the last two seasons. To return to the big leagues, he must show he can better control the strike zone and use his offspeed pitches more effectively. Alcalá can be a late-inning weapon now that his health concerns are behind him. Each of these players seems destined for a long-term role with the club, but their futures have been clouded because of recent injuries. There are specific roles each can fill for the Twins in 2024, and that will help reestablish some of the luster that has worn off in recent years. Returning to their high point might be out of the question, but Minnesota needs the depth these players provide. Which player is a more significant part of the team’s long-term plans? Who provides the team with the most value in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Charlee Soto has turned heads this spring with his combination of stuff and presence on the mound. Can he break the Twins’ trend of poor-performing high school pitching prospects? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Drafting a teenage pitching prospect comes with plenty of pitfalls because of the development required to move from the low minors to the big leagues. Some pitchers drafted out of high school can go on to have extraordinary careers, while others will suffer injuries or poor performance before reaching the high minors. There is a particular wild card element with high school pitchers, and some organizations do a better job of getting value from these players, who are viewed as lottery tickets. The Twins selected Charlee Soto with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft out of high school in Florida. After signing with Minnesota for $2.48 million, the club decided not to have him make his professional debut as he worked at the team’s facilities in Fort Myers. In high school, he was a shortstop until the summer leading into his senior season, so evaluators believe he can repeat his delivery because of his infield throwing experience. His fastball has good movement and regularly hits in the upper 90s. He combines a powerful sinker, a hard slider, and a split-change to complete his pitch mix. His lack of experience as a full-time pitcher likely means the Twins will be patient with him so he can continue to refine his craft. So, how have the Twins done drafting and developing other high school arms? 2021 Draft: Chase Petty (26th overall) Minnesota used their first-round pick in 2021 to draft Petty out of high school in New Jersey. He signed for $2.5 million and made two appearances with the FCL Twins during his professional debut. Leading into the 2022 season, the Twins traded him to the Reds for Sonny Gray, which worked out for both teams. Petty reached Double-A last season and posted a 1.72 ERA with a 1.15 WHP and 8.7 K/9. He is a borderline top-100 prospect who should move up national rankings with another solid season in the upper minors. Minnesota got two All-Star caliber seasons from Gray, and now they get the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft as compensation for his leaving. Perhaps the team will take another high school arm. 2013 Draft: Kohl Stewart (5th overall) Stewart was an intriguing prospect when the Twins selected him as one of the top five picks. He had Division 1 scholarship offers to play football, but the Twins signed him for over $4.5 million to coax him away from that commitment. All three national rankings had him in their top 55 prospects entering the 2014 season, and he peaked as the 28th-ranked prospect by Baseball Prospectus entering the 2015 campaign. Stewart slowly worked through the Twins system but failed to miss enough bats to be truly effective, with a 6.7 K/9 in over 680 minor league innings. He pitched 62 innings with the Twins while combining for a 4.79 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He’s bounced around to multiple organizations in recent years but hasn’t pitched a professional inning since 2021 while dealing with injuries. 2012 Draft: José Berríos (32nd overall) Berríos is one of the team’s bright spots when drafting and developing a high school pitcher. Like Soto, the Twins used a supplemental first-round pick to draft Berríos. He signed for $1.55 million and quickly became one of baseball’s best pitching prospects. Entering the 2016 season, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus had him ranked as a top-20 prospect. During his Twins tenure, he was a two-time All-Star, posting a 4.08 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 1.23 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. At the 2021 trade deadline, the Twins traded Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays for a package that included Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. Both players finished last season at Triple-A and should debut in 2024. It will be multiple years before the Twins know if Soto is following in the footsteps of Berríos or going down the same path as Stewart. The current front office regime prefers to draft college arms, so Soto will be an interesting case study in the coming years. He has all the potential in the world, but a lot can go wrong between now and when he first steps on the mound at Target Field. What are your expectations for Soto in 2024? How aggressive will the Twins be with him this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The back of the Twins rotation looks very different than it did to start the 2023 campaign. With Opening Day on the horizon, what’s the biggest question facing this group? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Rotational depth is critical for any contending team because it takes more than five starters to complete a 162-game season. Last season, the Twins had ten pitchers make at least one start, and the club used 14 starters during an injury-plagued 2022 campaign. Minnesota started last year with a five-person rotation that included Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. By the end of April, Mahle was on the injured list before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Maeda was returning from Tommy John surgery, which limited his usage throughout the season. For the second consecutive season, the biggest question facing the back of the Twins rotation is, “How healthy are these arms?” Chris Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 season and pitched out of the bullpen for the stretch run. Minnesota expects Paddack to be able to handle a return to the rotation this season, but there can be innings limitations for a player returning from this type of surgery. Last season, Maeda was in a similar recovery spot to Paddack and was limited to just over 100 innings pitched. Paddack has never thrown over 141 innings in a professional season, likely a trend that will continue in 2024. Paddack built up to over 50 pitches in his March 5th start while also seeing increased velocity on his newly developed slider. His approach when ahead in the count has been a focus for him this spring. Keeping opposing batters off balance with a changeup and slider should help him to miss more bats and be more effective. "Two-strike execution is one of his goals [and] something we want him thinking about every time he takes the mound," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. "He's a really good strike-thrower, and he gets into a lot of two-strike counts. It's what he does then [that matters]. His best off-speed pitch for much of his career has been his changeup, so now it's about getting breaking balls to get swings and misses. He doesn't have to be in the zone with two strikes, he knows that, he's working on it." Paddack’s return from injury isn’t the only health concern for the team’s projected Opening Day rotation. Anthony DeSclafani missed time last season with a flexor forearm strain, and the Twins shut him down earlier this spring after he experienced soreness in his right elbow. This type of soreness can be expected, according to team trainer Nick Paparesta. In 2023, DeSclafani was limited to 19 appearances (99 2/3 innings) with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The Twins hope he can return to his 2021 performance when he combined for a 3.17 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 167 2/3 innings. The Twins remain confident that DeSclafani will be able to make starts for the team early in the season. Minnesota won’t need a fifth starter for the first week and half of the season, so he can begin the year on the injured list before joining the rotation. “I’m still optimistic about him pitching early in the year for us, but we’re going to take the time to do it the right way,” Baldelli said. “We’re going to make sure we take care of him, and then we ramp him. It’s clearly not going to be an ultra-aggressive ramp-up. It’s going to be a ramp-up that we know we have to take a little bit of time each step of the way and do it the right way because we’re doing this for the long haul, not just to try to get him back out there on the mound. But again, I’m optimistic.” When injuries impact the rotation, the Twins have depth waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Louie Varland currently sits in the sixth spot on the depth chart and will be the first player called up from Triple-A. Other pitchers expected to pitch at St. Paul this season include some of the team’s top pitching prospects like David Festa, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Brent Headrick, and Marco Raya. The Twins would like to wait until further into the season to dig into their pitching depth, but injuries might force a change in the season's early weeks. What are your expectations for the back end of the rotation? How many innings will Paddack and DeSclafani pitch for the Twins in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins’ front office attempted to add a playoff-caliber starter this offseason, to no avail. Enter Bailey Ober, and a new pitch mix that might push him to the top of the starting rotation. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Losing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda from the starting rotation would be a tough pill to swallow for any organization. Gray was the AL Cy Young runner-up, and Maeda pitched well down the stretch leading into the playoffs. Minnesota’s front office talked about adding a starting pitcher earlier in the offseason, but with the team’s self-imposed payroll cut, that would have been a tricky proposition. Free agent options were too expensive, and trading for a frontline starting pitcher often requires top prospects to be included in the deal. For those reasons, the Twins will rely on internal starting pitching options to take the next step in 2024. Spring training is a time for pitchers to work on things, to prepare for the upcoming season. Some hurlers have worked on refining specific pitches throughout the winter and spring training games, which are the first opportunity for fans to see these offerings. Multiple Twins pitchers have unveiled new pitches this spring, but Bailey Ober’s new pitch mix might be something that can elevate him from a mid-rotation arm to a playoff-caliber starter. During the 2023 season, Ober used a four-pitch mix, which included a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider/sweeper, and curveball. Throughout his big-league career, he has relied less on his fastball, with a 12.3% usage drop from 2021 to 2023. His changeup usage has increased in each of his first three seasons, including being his second most-used pitch last season (28%). Bailey Ober, 2023 Pitch Break Chart Last season, he saw a 5% increase in his Whiff% with his fastball, which will help set up his other offspeed offerings. Many believed he needed one more pitch, a harder breaking ball that could round out his pitch mix. Multiple Twins pitchers have been showcasing what is viewed as a gyro slider during spring training games. Last season, Ober's slider averaged 81.0 mph; his new version of the pitch has an increased velocity of 86.0 mph, with more glove-side break. Following one of his spring appearances, he told reporters, “Cutter, slider, whatever you want to call it. Something that’s hard and goes left.” Ober has also increased his release height while keeping his extension the same. These changes have helped him to add more ride to his fastball while increasing its velocity. His pitch mix now includes five pitches, with a four-seamer, gyro slider (marked below as a cutter), sweeper, curveball, and changeup. Bailey Ober, 2024 Pitch Break Chart His Stuff+ on his spring offerings has also seen some substantial increases. His fastball ranked slightly below average last season with a 94 Stuff+, but he has increased that to a 110 Stuff+ in his start on March 2. According to Stuff+, his slider was his best pitch last season, at 99. His tweaks to that pitch have moved it to 102. During spring training, there are small sample sizes to consider with pitchers, but the changes to his pitch mix continue to be encouraging. Earlier in spring training, I discussed the possibility of Ober being an extension candidate for the Twins. His price will likely increase throughout the 2024 season as he approaches free agency and his performance improves. The Twins need their young pitchers to take the next step if they want to win the division and make a deeper playoff run this season. Will Ober be able to translate his improved performance into the regular season? Can he be a playoff-caliber starter that the team needs? Leave a comment to start the discussion. View full article

Since being drafted in 2019, Brent Headrick moved quickly through the Minnesota Twins system. Is he being overlooked because of other arms in the team’s pitching pipeline? Image courtesy of Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports Organizations need pitching depth throughout a 162-game season, to overcome injuries and poor performance. The Twins hired Derek Falvey to replicate the successful pitching pipeline he helped develop in Cleveland. Minnesota is starting to see the fruits of that labor, with the team projected to have one of the AL’s best pitching staffs in 2024. They have amassed depth by fishing in multiple rivers, including drafting and developing young players and trading for arms, then tweaking specific pitches. The Twins drafted Brent Headrick from Illinois State University in the 9th round of the 2019 MLB Draft. Minnesota’s current front office has shown a tendency to draft college pitchers from lesser-known schools in the draft’s later rounds, in hopes of working with the player on slight mechanical adjustments to improve velocity and pitch mix. Tracking his development in the Twins system has been challenging, because the pandemic wiped out what should have been his first full professional campaign. Headrick only sits in the low 90s with his fastball, but he has a good slider that can get swings and misses from lefties and righties. The 2021 season was Headrick’s first chance to make an impression on the Twins organization, but shoulder issues limited him to 16 appearances. In 63 innings, he posted a 3.71 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and an 88-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Fort Myers. Minnesota moved him up to High-A for the start of the 2022 season, and he dominated, with a 2.34 ERA and 10.6 K/9 across 15 starts. His strikeout rate increased to 12.3 K/9 when he was promoted to Double-A in the second half, which made it easy to add him to the team’s 40-man roster. So, what have been Headrick’s strengths when moving through the upper minors? “For me, fastball has always been a strength, slider has always been good," Headrick told Twins Daily's John Bonnes. "And now this year, we’re trying to promote the splitter a little bit more to give that third weapon.” The left-handed pitcher went on to say that he was comfortable using his secondary pitches against righties and lefties, so it will be interesting to see how he approaches hitters early in the season. Last season, Headrick began the year at St. Paul, and it was the first time he was over a year younger than the average age of the competition at his level. At Triple-A, he posted a 4.68 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 in what is considered a hitter-friendly league. With the Twins, he was asked to pitch multiple innings in half of his appearances, but he continued to strike out more than 10 batters per inning. His biggest issue was keeping the ball in the park, with seven home runs allowed in 25 2/3 innings. Adding an improved splitter can help him to keep batters more off-balance and improve his big-league performance. Headrick pitched as a starter in the minors, but all his big-league appearances came in a relief role. He plans to build up as a starter to begin the season, because it's easier to transition from that to a relief role than to do the reverse. “I have pretty even splits for the most part, but the slider plays really well to lefties and righties," he said. "My biggest goal this year for righties is to get that splitter moving away from them, so they have a different look than just a slider coming in.” Headrick’s path to the big leagues in 2024 isn’t as straightforward as it would have been in previous seasons. The Twins have added to the bullpen this winter, which leaves the club with three left-handed options ahead of Headrick on the depth chart: Caleb Thielbar, Steven Okert, and Kody Funderburk. Minnesota has five pitchers penciled into the rotation, with other options slated for Triple-A, like Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Matt Canterino. Headrick will begin the year in St. Paul, and must prove his new pitch mix is effective to earn a call-up. Fans have clamored for the Twins to add pitching depth, and that’s one of the main goals of the current regime. Headrick fits into that pitching puzzle, and can play a significant role in 2024 and beyond. What role will Headrick play with the Twins this season? Will his new pitch mix make him more effective? Leave a comment and start the discussion. Reporter credit: @John Bonnes View full article

The Twins have traded away their top five picks from the 2021 MLB Draft. So, who remains in the organization, and how many can impact the big-league roster in the coming years? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of Pierson Ohl) Teams value the players they take in the MLB Draft because the process takes multiple years of scouting, building relationships with players, and development in a system. Minnesota viewed the players taken in the 2021 MLB Draft with high regard, but prospects are trade capital for many organizations. The Twins would have liked to keep some of their top picks from this draft, but things don’t always work out that way. Here is a quick recap of what the Twins have done with their early-round picks from the 2021 MLB Draft. Chase Petty was the team’s first-round pick (26th overall), and he was traded to Cincinnati for Sonny Gray. The Twins got two All-Star caliber seasons from Gray, and they will receive the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft after he left in free agency. Noah Miller was the team’s supplemental first-round pick (36th overall), and the Twins traded him to Los Angeles last week as part of the deal for Manuel Margot. Steve Hajjar (61st overall) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (128th overall) were part of the package that brought Tyler Mahle to the Twins. Cade Povich (98th overall) was used to acquire Jorge Lopez and will likely make his big-league debut this season. So, who is left in the organization from the 2021 MLB Draft, and which players have big-league futures? David Festa is developing into the team’s crown jewel from this draft class after he was selected in the 13th round (399th overall). He is in the conversation as the organization’s best pitching prospect and represented the organization at last year’s Futures Game. Twins Daily currently ranks him as the team’s sixth overall prospect, the second-highest-ranked pitcher behind Marco Raya. When the Twins drafted Festa, he had a fastball in the low 90s, but the team worked with his mechanics, and now he consistently hits in the upper 90s. His slider and change-up combination help him keep righties and lefties off-balance at the plate. He finished last season at Triple-A and is expected to debut in 2024. Pierson Ohl is another intriguing pick from the team’s 2021 MLB Draft class, as he was taken 30 picks after Festa in the 14th round. Last season, he pitched 127 ⅓ innings with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP between High- and Double-A. Ohl controlled the strike zone with 15 walks and 115 strikeouts. Opposing batters hit .240/.270/.392 (.662) against him in over 500 plate appearances. He likely starts the year at Double-A, where he finished last season, and should make appearances for St. Paul in the season’s second half. Jake Rucker is the highest-drafted position player left from the 2021 MLB Draft and has been appearing in spring training games for the Twins. In 2023, he spent the season at Double-A and hit .248/.323/.381 (.704) with 21 doubles, four triples, and nine home runs. Defensively, he played over 100 innings at second, third, first, and left field. If his power continues to develop, he can fill a utility role in the big leagues. Notes on Other 2021 Draft Picks Christian MacLeod (159th overall): Made 16 starts between Low-A and High-A last season with a 4.08 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9. Travis Adams (189th overall): Pitched nearly 110 innings at Wichita in 2023 with a 1.47 WHIP and a 5.66 ERA. Noah Cardenas (249th overall): Posted a .779 OPS in 90 games for Cedar Rapids in 2023 while being one of the team’s primary catchers. Patrick Winkel (279th overall): He’s a non-roster invitee at spring training after finishing last season at Double-A. In 88 games, he hit .262/.362/.424 (.787) with 27 extra-base hits. Ernie Yake (309th overall): The Twins have been comfortable with him bouncing around to multiple levels in his professional career. Last season, he played four defensive positions and had a .718 OPS. Kyler Fedko (369th overall): Played both corner outfield spots for Cedar Rapids last season and hit .242/.398/.412 (.810) in 59 games. Mikey Perez (399th overall): Can play all over the infield and reached High-A in 2023. Across 67 games, he posted a .674 OPS with 13 extra-base hits. It would be great to have Petty, Povich, or Encarnacion-Strand still in the system. However, the organization’s 2021 draft haul still projects to provide value. Which player will the Twins regret trading away? When will Festa make his debut? Which other players from the draft class have an MLB future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins set an MLB record by striking out 1,654 times during the 2023 season. Veteran additions this winter point to the team digging themselves out of last year’s strikeout woes. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Stylistically, baseball has changed in recent years. Besides the rare cases, gone are the days of players striving for a .300 batting average. Instead, batters have focused on increasing exit velocity and launch angle to drive the ball with power in the air. (To wit: last year nine qualified players had a batting average of .300 or better, in 2003 there were 40.) Teams are also deploying power arms out of the bullpen earlier in games, as some starters aren’t given an opportunity to go through a lineup more than twice. Swinging for the fences comes with other downfalls as strikeout totals rise and teams attempt to balance the art of hitting home runs and avoiding strikeouts. The Star Tribune’s Chip Scoggins asked Derek Falvey about the general acceptance of rising strikeout totals in baseball’s current landscape. "We never intend to hunt strikeout records. That's not a goal, I promise you,” he said. “Any fan that thinks that you need to tell them that is not the case. That was not our goal. That was never our mission." The Twins weren’t alone in their strikeout futility last season. Minnesota set the record for most strikeouts in a season, but the Seattle Mariners also would have broken the all-time mark with 1,603 strikeouts of their own. Minnesota had seven players with 100 strikeouts or more, but two of the team’s top three strikeout leaders (Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor) won’t be on the roster for 2024. So, how did the team replace those hitters, and can we expect the strikeout numbers to decrease? Joey Gallo Replacement: Carlos Santana Last season, the Twins signed Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11 million contract to add him to the team’s options at first base. Many fans were happy the team had moved on from Miguel Sanó, but the club went and signed the only other player in MLB history with a higher strikeout rate. Gallo has a 37.5 K% for his career, but his 2024 rate was over five percent higher. He can obviously hit some towering home runs and draw walks, but he is prone to more slumps with his massive strikeout rate. Santana is a very different player type than Gallo because they strike out at opposite ends of the spectrum. Last season, Santana posted a 16.8 K%, nearly identical to his career total. He’s only posted one season with a K% higher than 20%, which was back in 2011, his first full season in the big leagues. Santana is going to put the ball in play more regularly and he can hopefully avoid the prolonged slumps Twins fans witnessed with Gallo during the 2023 campaign. Michael A. Taylor Replacement: Manuel Margot Taylor outperformed many projections during the 2023 season with a career-high 21 home runs and an OPS more than 50 points higher than his career average. His jump in power came at a cost of 33.5 K%, his highest total since the 2019 campaign. For his career, Taylor has struck out in 30% of his plate appearances while also getting on base less than 29.5% of the time. Entering his age-33 season, it’s fair to expect age to impact Taylor on both sides of the ball. Margot has dealt with leg and arm injuries over the last two seasons but is four years younger than Taylor. He also has far less swing-and-miss to his offensive profile. For his career, Margot has a 17.8 K%, lower than that during the 2023 campaign (16.4 K%). He has only crossed the 100-strikeout total in one season (2017) while averaging 64 strikeouts over the last three seasons. Margot doesn’t have Taylor’s home run potential, but being able to avoid strikeouts is going to be a welcome addition to the back end of the lineup. Returning Players There are returning players who will also impact the Twins’ strikeout totals. Correa saw a jump from a career 20.8 K% to a 22.6 K% in 2023, the worst offensive season of his career. He battled through a plantar fasciitis injury last season that impacted his swing because he couldn’t put pressure on his heel. Correa is healthy and revamped his swing this winter, so that should help lower his strikeout totals. Buxton is another player returning from injury and looking to cut back on the missed cuts. His K% has been above 30% over the last two seasons while he dealt with a nagging knee injury. If he’s more regularly available, it would benefit the team to have his K% drop back to where he had been from 2019-2021 (mid-20s). Minnesota’s young core also includes some players to watch regarding strikeout percentage. Julien ranked near the top of the team in total strikeouts despite playing in 109 games. His 31.4 K% was significantly higher than his totals at Double- and Triple-A, so look for him to improve. Pitchers changed their approach versus Wallner later in the season, impacting his strikeout rate. Wallner’s offensive profile is full of swing and miss, so he must adjust and avoid falling into the Gallo realm. Like Julien, Gallo posted better strikeout numbers at Triple-A (28.0 K%), which points to potential improvement. Strikeouts will continue to be part of baseball. However, the Twins don’t need to perennially be at the bottom of the AL in total strikeouts. Key veteran additions and slight changes in offensive approach should help the 2024 Twins avoid swinging and missing. Do you think the team’s strikeout totals will drop this season? Which player(s) from 2023 can make the most improvements in the strikeout department? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Many national outlets will begin handing out grades based on the moves made by each organization this offseason. So, what grade should the Twins receive? The answer is complicated. Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports In an ideal offseason, the Twins would build off a tremendous 2023 season where the club ended a playoff-losing drought. The front office would be free to stretch the payroll over $160 million for the first time in franchise history while keeping the team’s winning window open as long as possible. Instead, the payroll was reduced by nearly $30 million after uncertainty surrounded the team’s television situation. Minnesota’s roster seems set, with Opening Day less than a month away, but multiple grades should be handed out to all those responsible for the current roster. On a recent Patreon episode of Gleeman and the Geek, John and Aaron discussed how to evaluate the team's offseason. Below are grades for the ownership group, the front office, and an overall grade for the offseason. How would you grade the team? Ownership: Joe Pohlad and the Pohlad Family Twins ownership made it clear to the front office that the team would cut payroll for the 2023 season. It seemed like a natural consequence, with the team’s television home being in flux for most of the offseason. This decision forced Derek Falvey and company to be creative in their approach to roster construction (see below). In recent weeks, Joe Pohlad has made the rounds on local radio and television to discuss the reasons behind the financial decisions being forced onto the team’s decision-makers. Many pointed to the team's renewal of their deal with Diamond Sports as an opportunity to spend more money. Despite the influx of revenue, Pohlad explained that the Twins had been stretched in their recent spending, and a reduction was necessary for 2024. The MLBPA is also considering filing a grievance against the Twins because of comments made by Pohlad. During an interview with WCCO-AM Radio's Jason DeRusha, he addressed the Twins' free-agent plans: "We're not going to go out and spend $30 million on a player right now," Pohlad said. "The players that are out there right now that probably a bunch of fans are talking about, we are not in the market for those players." Combine the dropping payroll, the botched television situation, and other comments, and it’s hard not to give the front office a failing grade. Final Grade: F Front Office: Derek Falvey and Company Falvey has been known for his patience and creativity in roster building, and those skills were undoubtedly tested this winter. Minnesota’s most significant offseason move was parting ways with Jorge Polanco, the longest-tenured Twins player and an underrated player in the Target Field era. In return, the Twins got a set-up caliber reliever (Justin Topa), a back-of-the-rotation starter (Anthony DeSclafani), and two prospects (Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen). It might have been easier for the club to hang on to Polanco, but none of the team’s other moves would have been possible without the salary relief acquired in the Polanco deal. The team wanted a veteran bat to fit into the first base mix, and Carlos Santana has consistently tormented the Twins throughout his career. Nick Gordon was out of options and didn’t have a defined role on the roster, so the Twins were able to swap him for lefty reliever Steven Okert. Minnesota needed insurance for Buxton in center field but didn’t have the funds to sign a free agent. So, the club flipped shortstop prospect Noah Miller to the Dodgers for Manuel Margo, Rayne Doncon, and cash. Some can argue that the Twins are a worse team now than at the end of last season, but the front office did their best to add depth and make minor tweaks around the margins. Final Grade: B- Overall Grade From the outside, many national outlets will give the Twins a C grade, but that doesn't tell the whole story as shown above. The team lost Sonny Gray, the Cy Young runner-up, and Kenta Maeda from the rotation without making any critical upgrades to the starting staff. Minnesota’s bullpen added substantial depth and projects to be among baseball’s best, but relievers can be fickle. The Twins are also relying on returns to health for Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa while also hoping their terrific rookie trio from last year can avoid the dreaded sophomore slump. Combined, the front office and ownership had a slightly below-average offseason. Final Grade: C- What grade would you give the front office? How does the ownership group stack up? Does the club deserve a C for their final offseason grade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have been hunting for a right-handed bat to add to the outfield mix. Earlier this week, the club traded for Manuel Margot, and the Opening Day roster is one step closer to being finalized. Image courtesy of William Parmeter Minnesota has been in the market for a specific player type throughout the offseason. Last season, the Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor to provide insurance behind Byron Buxton in center field. Taylor’s role became critical when Buxton was relegated to the designated hitter role. The Twins believe Buxton will return to center field in 2024, but it’s critical to have depth behind him with his injury history. On Monday, the club traded for Manuel Margot, in what seems to be the team’s last external move before Opening Day. Here’s how the team’s 26-man roster projects if the season started today. Catchers (2): Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers Vázquez and Jeffers have the potential to be one of the best catching duos in baseball. Last season, Vázquez was one of the AL’s best defenders behind the plate, but struggled offensively with a 65 OPS+. Jeffers revamped his swing and finished among the AL’s top offensive catchers with a 134 OPS+. Unfortunately, he had his worst defensive season, with a Fielding Run Value in the 7th percentile. The Twins added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster earlier in the offseason, so he’d be the next man up if one of the starters was injured. Infielders (6): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Carlos Santana This unit, too, could be one of MLB's best. Correa suffered through a plantar fasciitis injury that impacted him on both sides of the ball in 2023. His health seems to be back to 100%, and he retooled his swing to get back to his previous offensive performance. There are high expectations surrounding Lewis after a breakout season in 2023, including some big moments in the playoffs. Julien will begin the year as the team’s primary second baseman after the club traded long-time infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners. Before that trade, Farmer was a candidate to be non-tendered or traded, and now he has a critical bench role. Santana was the team’s biggest free agent acquisition, and he will get the majority of the reps at first base. Kirilloff will see some time at first, but is likely to see more at DH after fighting injuries in recent seasons. Top prospect Brooks Lee is also waiting in the wings at Triple-A to take over a starting role when the opportunity arises. Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner, Manuel Margot Minnesota’s front office targeted Margot throughout the offseason, before finally landing him in a three-player trade with the Dodgers. The Twins were rumored to be in the market for a right-handed outfield bat, and Margot can provide insurance behind Buxton in center field. Buxton, Kepler, and Wallner are scheduled to be the team’s regular trio of starting outfielders, with Castro stepping in when the team is facing a solid left-handed starter. The Twins have been talking highly about Austin Martin this offseason, and he’s already on the 40-man roster. The team needs to focus on the skills Martin has shown during his professional career to get the most from him at the big-league level. Rotation (5): Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani López is garnering plenty of hype this winter, after ending the 2023 season on a high note. There is even conversation about him being a Cy Young candidate. Ober is looking to build off a strong 2023 season and has his eyes set on pitching 200 innings this year. Ryan is searching for more consistency after pitching through a groin injury last season and seeing his home run rate rise. Desclafani’s addition in the Polanco trade pushes Louie Varland to Triple-A to begin the year. The Twins have been working with Desclafani on his sinker, hoping he can return to his previous form as a top-of-the-rotation starter. Joining Varland at Triple-A are other young options like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Brent Headrick. Starting pitching depth is critical for contending teams, especially over the course of 162 games. Bullpen (8): Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Topa, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumount, Steven Okert On paper, the Twins project to have the American League’s best bullpen, but relievers can be fickle. Durán is one of the game’s best closers, which gives the Twins an advantage in late-inning situations. Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar will all be used in set-up roles, depending on who has the hot hand. Jorge Alcalá and Kody Funderburk are also in the bullpen mix, but other veteran options make the Opening Day roster in this forecast, since these players have options remaining. Cole Sands is a long-relief option, if the team feels the need to add someone for that role. Former top pitching prospect Matt Canterino is an intriguing name to monitor for a bullpen role in the season’s second half. He is returning from Tommy John surgery and is on an innings limit, so he will begin the year as a starter and can shift to reliever for the stretch run. How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? What will change with the 26-man roster before Opening Day? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Last spring, the Twins signed Donovan Solano after spring training started to fill a critical bench role. One Twins prospect can fill a similar role as soon as the 2024 campaign. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Donovan Solano was a late addition to the Twins roster last spring after signing a one-year, $2 million contract. His value to Minnesota went far beyond his low base salary as he played in a career-high 134 games while hitting .282/.369/.391 (.760) with 26 doubles, one triple, and five home runs. During his age-35 season, he combined for a 1.7 rWAR, and FanGraphs pegged his value at nearly $10 million. Earlier this winter, reports surfaced that Solano would like to return to the Twins, but that has yet to transpire. Instead, the Twins might already have a younger version of Solano on the 40-man roster who is ready to take the next step. Yunior Severino ranked as one of the top international prospects during the 2016-17 signing period. At the time, he signed with the Braves organization for nearly $2 million and made his professional debut for their rookie league teams in 2017. Following the season, he was one of a handful of prospects declared free agents by Major League Baseball because the Braves committed international signing violations. Minnesota swooped in and handed Severino a $2.5 million bonus. Since then, his time in the Twins organization has seen mixed performance. Severino has consistently climbed the organizational ladder, especially since the minor league season was lost to the pandemic. In 2021, he split time between Low- and High-A while hitting .273/.372/.430 (.802) with 29 doubles and eight home runs in 98 games. His power took a giant leap in 2022 while playing for Cedar Rapids and Wichita. In 83 games, he smacked 19 long balls, and his .907 OPS was a career-high. Unfortunately, injuries limited him to fewer than 100 games in back-to-back seasons, but there were signs of life with his bat that impressed evaluators. The 2023 season would be a breakout campaign for Severino. He destroyed the ball at Double-A to start the year by hitting .287/.365/.560 (.925) with 15 doubles and 24 home runs in 84 games. Minnesota promoted him to Triple-A in the second half, and he continued to power the ball with a .832 OPS and 11 more home runs to add to his season total. The switch-hitter combined for 35 home runs, which was tied for the most in all of the minors. No Twins minor leaguer has hit more than 35 home runs in any season since 2000. Following the season, Twins Daily named him the organization’s 2023 Minor League Hitter of the Year. Minnesota rewarded Severio’s performance by adding him to the 40-man roster this winter. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin have gotten plenty of hype regarding their potential role with the Twins in 2023, but Severino shouldn’t be forgotten. Severino’s splits have been almost identical from both sides of the plate as a switch-hitter due to his tremendous bat speed and high exit velocities. Like any power hitter, there are concerns about his strikeout rate, including 173 strikeouts in 120 games last season. However, he was young for both levels last season and faced older pitchers in nearly 84% of his plate appearances. So, how can Severino fill a Solano-type role for the Twins? Both players have some defensive flexibility but aren’t considered strong defenders at any position. In 2023, Severino started 64 games at third base, the most of any position. He also played over 125 innings at second base and first base. Solano played all three of those positions for the Twins in 2023. Obviously, their offensive profiles are very different from Solano’s .711 OPS for his career, which compares to Severino’s .832 OPS for his entire professional career. Severino isn’t likely starting the season with the Twins, but that takes nothing away from his long-term value to the team. His power is legitimate, and there are things he can continue to work on at Triple-A to start the 2024 season. His strikeout numbers were high last year, so returning to a level he knows can help him be more selective at the plate. Defensively, he must prove he won’t be a liability at whatever position the Twins need him to play after he is called up. “Donnie Barrels” was vital for Minnesota last season, and Severino can fill a similar role in the years ahead. When will Severino make his debut this season? Which defensive position is best for his long-term value? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Carlos Correa’s contract accounts for over 25% of the team’s overall payroll, meaning the Twins need him to perform like a superstar. He had a typical offseason for the first time in years, so how is his overall health entering the 2024 campaign? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Last winter, Carlos Correa’s health was the talk of the offseason after two mega deals fell through because of questions about the long-term durability of his surgically repaired ankle. Correa wasn’t searching for a new team this winter, and it allowed him to refocus on his overall health and offensive approach. It’s essential for him to bounce back after a disastrous 2023 that saw him post the worst offensive totals of his career. Correa got off to a slow start during the 2023 season by hitting .193/.272/.378 (.649) with 33 strikeouts in the team's first 35 games. In mid-May, he was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis, which impacted him on both sides of the ball throughout the regular season. He set the team record for most double plays as he continued to play through the injury while Minnesota fought for a playoff spot. The Twins put him on the injured list in mid-September to help him rest for the playoffs, and he seemed to return to the Correa that the Twins signed to the largest contract in franchise history. In October, Correa went 9-for-22 in the team’s two playoff series with three doubles and four RBI. His defensive acumen helped to make multiple plays that won games for the Twins. He made a nearly impossible throw to the plate to nail a runner, helped orchestrate a critical pick-off play at second base, and ended one game in Houston with a tremendous dive and throw. It seemed like Correa was back to his old self, which gives hope for what he can mean to the team in 2024. “The playoffs showed him being a little healthier helps a lot,” Twins hitting coach David Popkins said. “A lot could have just been solved by that. Then also it helps to know ‘I don’t have to be 100% and I could still be the best player on the field.’ That’s what I think is a big takeaway. You can find a way to make it work and get it done even when you’re not at your full clip, which makes him even more dangerous when he is.” His plantar fasciitis subsided in December, allowing Correa to work on different parts of his game. “I switched a couple of things with my lower body and my hands (in my swing),” Correa told reporters. “I’m feeling good. … I’m very excited for what’s to come this year. It’s a team that’s very young, but got enough experience last year for us to believe that we can do it against any team. I’m excited to get started.” During the 2023 season, Correa had to make adjustments to his swing because of his plantar fasciitis injury. He had to lean forward on his toes to avoid putting weight on his heels. This overcompensation meant his chest was leaning over the plate and is likely one of the main reasons he couldn’t drive the ball and hit into so many double plays. Many projection systems have Correa returning to his previous form. ZiPS has him pegged for a 117 OPS+ and a 3.8 WAR after having a 94 OPS+ and a 1.4 WAR in 2023. Baseball-Reference projects him to hit .262/.342/.444 (.787) with 26 doubles and 20 home runs. For his career, he has a .820 OPS and has hit 20 home runs or more in six of his nine seasons. Correa turned 29 in September, so there is some question about how he will age as he enters his 30s. His repaired ankle that scared the Giants and Mets hasn’t been an issue yet, but there are no guarantees moving forward. His plantar fasciitis injury from last year seems to have improved, but some players have the issue reoccurring and have had to deal with it throughout their careers. Age impacts all players differently, and the Twins hope father time doesn’t come knocking early for arguably the most essential player in Minnesota’s lineup. Do you believe Correa is entirely healthy? How much do you expect his offensive numbers to improve in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober is in a much different place this spring than last year. So, how do projection models view the starter, and would a contract extension before Opening Day make sense? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Last spring, Bailey Ober entered camp knowing he was the odd man out. The Twins had five starters ahead of him on the depth chart, and he was likely heading to Triple-A to begin the year. It was a tough spot, especially since Ober had proved himself a big-league-caliber starter. He took everything in stride, and the Twins needed to call him up shortly after the season began to take over a spot in the rotation. The lanky right-handed hurler made 26 starts for the parent club, and posted a 3.43 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 144 innings. He combined for a 146-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a career-high 125 ERA+. There have been questions about Ober’s workload early in his career as he entered last year with only one professional season of more than 100 combined innings pitched. Between the Saints and the Twins, Ober combined for 167 innings in 2023, with his eyes set on a higher total this season. So, did Ober feel weary after throwing those innings? “Physically, no. Mentally, yeah, it gets hard towards the end [of the season] because you have to be locked in for the entire year,” he said to Twins Daily co-founder John Bonnes. Reviewing the 2023 campaign, one might think that Ober would've seen a drop in his velocity at the end of the season, because of his workload. Reality is a bit messier. He saw a velocity sag in the middle of last season, and bounced back at the end of the year. In September, Ober posted a 2.08 ERA with a 0.69 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .476 OPS. Below is a comparison of the team’s top four starters last season. The dots are individual starts, and the line is a five-game rolling average. While his performance peaked in September, there might have been signs of fatigue. His release point trended upward, which can signify fatigue for a tall pitcher throwing from a low slot. Also, Ober’s extension trended downward as the season wore on. Those are both mechanical adjustments that he can be aware of during the upcoming season, especially with the goals he has set for innings pitched. “Honestly, I think since I threw a total of like 170 innings, I feel like I should be able to push that margin and hopefully try to get to 200,” Ober said, So, what do projection models say about Ober reaching his lofty goals? ZiPS projects Ober to toss 144 innings with a 3.98 ERA and a 141-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Baseball Reference has him throwing even fewer innings (137), with a 3.81 ERA and a 137-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. To reach 200 innings, Ober must overshoot his projections by quite a wide margin, but that can be expected when models look at his recent track record. There were also only five MLB pitchers to throw 200 innings during the 2023 season. Ober is entering a critical juncture regarding the team approaching him about a possible contract extension. Since he was a 12th-round pick, he didn’t receive a high signing bonus out of college. He is also one year away from being arbitration-eligible, so he has yet to make life-changing money at any point in his career. It's more important than ever for the Twins to be opportunistic in this way, too, if they truly intend to "right-size" their payroll. Could the Twins work out a contract extension similar to what the Brewers gave to Aaron Ashby? He signed a five-year, $20.5-million extension in July 2022, with team options for 2028 ($9 million) and 2029 ($13 million). Minnesota would likely need to have more guaranteed money, because Ober has more service time than Ashby had, but it gives an idea of a potential starting point. There are multiple reasons why the 2024 season is critical for Ober and his long-term role with the team. Offering an extension to him might help calm some of the fans upset by the team’s lack of spending this winter. If he pitches close to 200 innings, the price tag on a potential extension will shoot up leading into his first arbitration season. Should the Twins approach Ober with an extension? How much should the team be willing to pay? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article