Cody Christie

In recent years, some clubs have used players atop their batting order who don't fit the traditional archetype for those slots. What options do the Twins have in 2024? Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli isn’t afraid to shake up his lineup when it’s necessary. Some fans might get frustrated with his approach to constructing the batting order, but he alters his hitters depending on the starter for the day and other matchups. The Twins' lineup isn’t finalized for 2024, which can make analyzing it a complicated endeavor. Still, multiple options exist to fill in the top spots for the upcoming campaign. Leadoff Spot In 2023, the Twins utilized 13 batters in the leadoff spot, but there was a clear top option in the season’s second half. Edouard Julien started 55 games at the top of the lineup, with no other Twins players making more than 28 starts in that position. As the leadoff hitter, Julien hit .250/.379/.424 (.803) with 10 doubles and eight home runs. It seems likely for Julien to continue to be used in the leadoff spot against right-handed starters, especially with his patient approach at the plate. However, the team might turn to other options when a lefty starts. Carlos Correa (28 starts), Donovan Solano (25), Max Kepler (17), and Byron Buxton (13) rounded out the top five players in games spent in the leadoff spot last season. Solano is a free agent, and there are rumors the Twins are attempting to trade veterans like Kepler, so neither player may fit into the leadoff discussion for next year. Correa and Buxton are strong options against left-handed pitchers, especially if both can put last season’s injury concerns behind them. Austin Martin is a dark-horse candidate for the leadoff spot, especially in the season’s second half. Last season, Martin posted a .382 OBP against righties, while also being a threat on the bases. Julien and Martin seem like perfect leadoff hitters, depending on the starting pitching matchup. Second Minnesota’s second slot in the order was straightforward last season, with two players each starting over 40 games. Correa started the most games in the two hole, even though his offensive performance suffered as he battled with plantar fasciitis. Jorge Polanco made 40 starts batting second, where his switch-hitting ability plays well for late-inning pitching substitutions. Polanco hit .261/.356/.425, with seven doubles and six home runs in 153 at-bats behind the leadoff hitter. Correa had a .642 OPS in the two spot, his lowest of any batting order position last season. Like Kepler, Polanco has a chance of being traded this season, potentially leaving a hole at the top of the lineup. Baldelli might have to start trusting some younger players, like Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff, in the two hole, but Correa seems likely to continue to be used in this position. Third The third spot in the lineup was one of the more evenly shared spots for the Twins in 2023. Six players made 12 or more starts batting there, led by Buxton (36 starts), Correa (32), Kirilloff (24), and Lewis (17). If Buxton and Kirilloff are healthy, they are the duo that should be used most regularly in the three hole, depending on the pitching matchup. Lewis made more starts in the third spot than in any other lineup position, while posting a .920 OPS with two doubles and four home runs in 64 at-bats. It will be hard for Baldelli to move Lewis down in the lineup if he continues to hit like he did during the 2023 campaign. If the season started today, here’s how the top of the lineup would be penciled in, but other roster changes will come before Opening Day. Top Three Hitters Versus Right-Handed Pitchers 1. Edouard Julien 2. Jorge Polanco 3. Carlos Correa Top Three Hitters Versus Left-Handed Pitchers 1. Carlos Correa 2. Jorge Polanco 3. Royce Lewis How do you think the Twins will order the top of the lineup in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Pitchers can make or break a season for a big-league club, and it seems like the Twins have been on the hunt for sustainable pitching throughout the team’s history. Here are the five pitchers who provided the most negative WAR during their Twins tenure. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA TODAY Sports On a recent episode of Gleeman and the Geek, a listener wrote in for their mailbag segment about Luis Rivas having a negative WAR for his career with the Twins. This topic brought up the idea of which Twins players have provided the most negative value for the club. Sometimes, the team can realize their mistake and cut bait after a poor performance. For other players, it takes longer for the club to realize their error. Rivas posted a -0.9 WAR for his career, the 38th-worst total in club history, and all the pitchers below combined for more than double his negative WAR. So, which pitchers compiled the most negative WAR for the Twins? Honorable Mentions: Scott Klingenbeck (-1.6 WAR, 1995-96), Jerry Fosnow (-1.6 WAR, 1964-65), Sean Bergman (-1.5 WAR, 2000), Joe Niekro (-1.4 WAR, 1987-88), Steve Carlton (-1.4 WAR, 1987-88) 5. J.A. Happ WAR: -1.8 Season: 2021 The Twins needed depth in their 2021 rotation after winning the division in 2020 and losing veteran starters like Rich Hill and Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota brought in Happ on a one-year deal, and he struggled mightily on the mound. In 98 1/3 innings, he posted a 6.77 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP and a 77-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The club had no other rotation options, so they were forced to keep using him every fifth day. Minnesota sent Happ to St. Louis for Evan Sisk and John Gant at the trade deadline. He combined for a 4.00 ERA in his final 11 starts with the Cardinals before retiring following that season. 4. John Pacella WAR: -1.8 Season: 1982 For younger fans, Pacella may be an unfamiliar name, but he pitched parts of six seasons for five organizations. The Twins acquired him on May 12, 1982, in a five-player trade with the Yankees. Minnesota received Pete Filson, Larry Milbourne, and Pacella for Roger Erickson and Butch Wynegar. He made 21 appearances (51 2/3 innings) for the Twins with a 7.32 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP and allowed multiple runs in nine appearances. Pacella was a mop-up man as the club lost all but three games where he pitched. Following the season, the Twins sent Pacella to the Rangers for Len Whitehouse. 3. Matt Shoemaker WAR: -1.8 Season: 2021 Like Happ, Shoemaker was brought in to add depth to the team’s starting rotation for the 2021 season. In 60 1/3 innings, he allowed 54 earned runs (8.06 ERA) with a 40-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota sent him to Triple-A to get back on track, and he blamed the Twins for trying to fix him during spring training. He was released at the beginning of August and quickly signed with the Giants, but he hasn’t made another big-league appearance since leaving Minnesota. 2. Terry Felton WAR: -1.9 Seasons: 1979-1982 Minnesota used a second-round draft pick to select Felton from high school in the 1976 MLB Draft. He quickly moved through the team’s farm system and debuted as a 21-year-old in 1979. In his first three seasons, he was limited to seven appearances as the Twins only brought him up for brief looks. In 1982, the Twins gave him a chance in the bullpen, and he ended up with a 0-13 record due to a 4.99 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP across 48 appearances. He had a 78 OPS+ for his Twins tenure with a 7.0 K/9 and a 5.7 BB/9. Felton struggled to find the strike zone, and batters took advantage. He played the entire 1983 season in the minors for the Twins and ended his career with a brief stint in the Dodgers organization. 1. Liam Hendriks WAR: -2.0 Seasons: 2011-2013 Hendriks ranked as one of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects throughout his professional career, but he could not find consistency at the big-league level. In parts of three seasons, he posted a 6.06 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP. However, the Twins never gave him a shot as a reliever, and that might be one of the club’s biggest regrets. The Twins placed him on waivers following the 2013 season, and he bounced around to the Cubs, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Royals organizations before finding himself in Oakland. Hendriks has become an All-Star closer with the A’s and White Sox, including being a two-time Rivera Reliever of the Year. Last season, he was named the AL Comeback Player of the Year following his battle with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. In case you missed it, here are the rankings of the top five negative WAR careers for hitters in Twins history. Do you agree with the above rankings? Who would rank at the top if you combined the hitter and pitcher list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Depending on the makeup of a team’s roster, there will be players who provide below-average value. Sometimes, it’s tough for a team to say goodbye to that style of player. Here’s a look at the five hitters who gave the Twins the most negative value. Image courtesy of Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports On a recent episode of Gleeman and the Geek, a listener wrote in for their mailbag segment about Luis Rivas having a negative WAR for his career with the Twins. This topic brought up the idea of which Twins players have provided the most negative value for the club. Sometimes, the team can realize their mistake and cut bait after a poor performance. For other players, it takes longer for the club to realize their error. Rivas posted a -0.9 WAR for his career, the 38th-worst total in club history. So, who ranked lower than Rivas? Honorable Mentions: Chris Latham (-1.7 WAR, 1997-99), Rondell White (-1.5 WAR, 2006-07), Drew Butera (-1.5 WAR, 2010-13), Matt Walbeck (-1.5 WAR, 1994-96) 5. Alex Ochoa WAR: -1.8 Seasons: 1998 Ochoa accumulated 6.4 WAR for his career and won the 2002 World Series with the Angels. His lone season in a Twins uniform saw him post the worst offensive numbers of his career while also being a below-average defender. In 94 games, he hit .257/.288/.353 (.642) with 18 extra-base hits and a 66 OPS+. Minnesota used him at all three outfield positions, and FanGraphs gave him a -17.1 Defensive rating. The Twins traded Ochoa to the Brewers following the season for Darrell Nicholas, who never made a big-league appearance. 4. Charlie Manuel WAR: -2.1 Seasons: 1969-1972 Manuel had a terrific career as a manager, including two NL pennants and a World Series title. He broke into the big leagues with the Twins in 1969 and played parts of four seasons with the club without appearing in more than 83 games. Manuel hit .199/.276/.265 (.541) with a 53 OPS+. According to Baseball Reference, he posted a negative WAR in every season with the Twins. In October 1973, the Twins traded him with Glenn Ezell to the Dodgers for Mike Floyd and Jim Fairey. 3. Tsuyoshi Nishioka WAR: -2.3 Seasons: 2011-2012 Nishioka came to the Twins from Japan with plenty of hype, especially after the club traded J.J. Hardy to make room at shortstop. He struggled with the transition to the big leagues and suffered a broken leg during his first season while trying to turn a double play. In two seasons, he played in 71 games and hit .215/.267/.236 (.503) with five doubles and a 44-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota released him after two seasons so he could return to Japan, where he’d play six more seasons before retiring. 2. Carmelo Castillo WAR: -2.7 Seasons: 1989-1991 Castillo was a part-time player throughout his 10-year big-league career and was already over 30 when he joined the Twins. In 1989, he played 94 games and posted a 106 OPS+ with 24 extra-base hits. Based on that performance, the Twins kept him for the next two seasons, and he was one of baseball’s worst hitters. Castillo combined for a .494 OPS and a 35 OPS+ in 73 games, but he still got a World Series ring for his contributions to the ‘91 squad. Minnesota released him following that season, and he played one year in the Brewers organization before retiring. 1. Dave McCarty WAR: -3.2 Seasons: 1993-1995 The Twins selected McCarty with the third overall pick in the 1991 MLB Draft from Stanford University. High expectations are attached to any player taken that high in the draft, and the Twins put him on the fast track to the big-league level. Baseball America ranked him as baseball’s 16th-best prospect entering the 1993 season. McCarty debuted for the Twins that season and hit .214/.257/.286 (.542) with 19 extra-base hits and a 46 OPS+ in 98 games. He played three seasons with the Twins and had a 55 OPS+ while also providing negative defensive value. During the 1995 season, the Twins traded him to the Reds organization for John Courtright. McCarty had an 11-year big-league career while playing for seven different organizations. Do you agree with the rankings? Who else should make the list? What pitchers will make the top five? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Thursday’s big news surrounded MLB teams exchanging numbers with arbitration-eligible players. So, what stood out from the Twins’ totals, and could the club avoid an arbitration hearing with all their eligible players? Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have seven arbitration-eligible players in 2024, including Caleb Thielbar, Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, Jorge Alcala, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, and Nick Gordon. MLB Trade Rumors estimated the group to earn $18.8 million next season, with Farmer’s $6.6 million estimated contract accounting for over one-third of that total. Minnesota is actively shopping veteran players on the roster, and Farmer fits this player type. His projected salary for a backup infielder is inflated, especially on a team cutting payroll. So, how did things pan out with the arbitration process? Minnesota agreed to deals with Thielbar ($3.225 million), Jeffers ($2.425 million), Alcala ($790,000), and Kirilloff ($1.35 million). Other deals for Farmer, Castro, and Gordon weren’t reported until after the deadline. In total, Minnesota avoided arbitration with six of their seven players. MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park reported that Farmer agreed to a $6.05 million deal with a $6.25 million mutual option for 2025 with a $250,000 buyout. Alcala’s deal includes a $1.5 million club option for 2025 with a $55,000 buyout. Gordon was the lone player who failed to agree with the team. According to the Star Tribune’s Bobby Nintengale, the Twins could be headed to an arbitration hearing with Gordon. MLBTR estimated Gordon would get $1 million through arbitration, so it will be interesting to see the numbers from both the team and the player. Juan Soto Sets Arbitration Record Soto has made plenty of headlines this winter as his name swirled in the trade rumor mill before being acquired by the Yankees in a blockbuster deal. He was entering his final year of arbitration eligibility as a 25-year-old and was set for a big payday. Soto and New York agreed to terms on a one-year, $31 million contract to avoid arbitration. It is a new record for an arbitration-eligible player as he topped the one-year, $30 million contract given to Shohei Ohtani last season. Soto is set to hit free agency following the 2024 campaign and has a chance to be given one of the largest contracts in baseball history. Mauer HOF Update Joe Mauer is sitting in a good spot when it comes to his first shot at being elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. With an estimated 40% of the ballots revealed, Mauer has been named on 84.1%, the second-highest total for any candidate this year. To be elected, Mauer needs to finish with 75% or more of the vote. He continues to do well because his resume suits both new- and old-school voting styles. An argument can also be made that he was the best catcher of his era compared to the other top catchers, Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. The voting results for the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be announced on January 23rd, airing on MLB Network at 5 p.m. CT. What stood out to you from this year’s arbitration numbers? How do you feel about Mauer’s chances for the HOF? Leave a COMMENT and start the conversation. View full article

National outlets have begun releasing projections about the 2024 season. Here are five observations from FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections for the Twins, which went up Tuesday--including a few surprises. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Dan Szymborski created ZiPS in the early 2000s, and it became publicly available in 2005, which means ZiPS is celebrating its 20th anniversary this season. ZiPS is a computer projection system with some distinguishing characteristics, relative to other ones around the web. Szymborski wrote, “At its core, however, it’s still doing two primary tasks: estimating what the baseline expectation for a player is at the moment I hit the button, and then estimating where that player may be going using large cohorts of relatively similar players.” ZiPS uses statistics from multiple years, with the more recent seasons given more weight. The model continues to evolve, and there are always ways to get better. However, it did practically what it should have done last season regarding hitters and pitchers. Szymborski posted that among pitchers who threw a minimum of 40 innings, 49% reached their 50th percentile projection. Offensively, hitters with a minimum of 300 plate appearances saw 51% reach their 50th percentile projection. So, how do the Twins stack up in 2024? What surprises are there in the team’s projections? Pablo Lopez is Going to be a Problem (In a Good Way) Last season, López wasn’t on the Twins when the team’s ZiPS projections were released, and his total with the Marlins was well below his 2024 projection. To be fair, López has been a different pitcher since this time last season. After joining the Twins, he refined and deployed a sweeper, and that pitch elevated him to one of baseball’s best starting pitchers. His 3.7-WAR projection is tied for the second-highest on the Twins. Some national outlets have already started pointing to López as a potential Cy Young candidate in 2024, which has happened with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda in recent seasons. Royce Lewis Enters the MVP Conversation While López might be in the Cy Young conversation, Lewis has the highest ZiPS projection on the Twins, and he’s only on the cusp of his prime. Twins fans saw what Lewis meant to the team’s offense in the second half, with his record-setting grand slams and clutch playoff home runs. Lewis hasn’t played in over 100 games since the 2019 season, so his health is the most significant question mark moving forward. His top near-age offensive comp is Steve Garvey, who won the NL MVP during his age-25 season, and Lewis turns 25 in June. Byron Buxton is Back in Center Field ZiPS has Buxton getting the majority of the team’s starts in center field next season, which might be challenging for fans to imagine. In 2023, Buxton failed to play an inning in center while dealing with chronic knee issues that have plagued him in recent years. Szymborski was explicitly asked about Buxton on Twitter, and pointed to local news stories that point to the Twins planning on starting Buxton in center field next season. The Twins must have backup options for Buxton in center, and ZiPS projects Willi Castro will be the second option. Behind Castro on the depth chart are players like Nick Gordon and Austin Martin. There is also a chance the team will bring Michael A. Taylor back on a short-term deal. Obviously, no projection system is going to give us relevant information about whether Buxton will be back in that spot in 2024. We just have to follow the news, consider Buxton's track record, and adjust the numbers the model spits out according to our superior knowledge. Carlos Correa and the Unknown Correa is coming off his worst professional season, with a 94 OPS+ and a 96 wRC+ while battling plantar fasciitis for the majority of the year. According to FanGraphs, Correa was worth 1.1 WAR last season, so a jump back to 3.7 WAR puts him closer to the total he accumulated in his first year with the Twins (4.4). Some players recover from plantar fasciitis and return to their previous form, while others are hampered by the injury for the remainder of their careers. Minnesota hopes Correa is back to being a middle-of-the-order hitter, putting him on pace to surpass his ZiPS projection in 2024. Minnesota’s Top-Heavy Bullpen The front office rarely spends money on relief pitching, so the Twins have relied on internal options and non-roster invitees to spring training to find the best bullpen fits. Jhoan Duran continues to lead the bullpen group, and it’s hard to imagine the team’s bullpen being successful without him. The Twins identified Brock Stewart while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and saw him return last season to be one of the bullpen’s bright spots. Durán and Stewart get elite ZiPS projections for next year, and some other players aren’t far behind. Griffin Jax and Caleb Thielbar also fit into setup roles, even with some mixed performances last season. Relief pitchers tend to burn bright and flame out quickly, so it will be interesting to see who exceeds expectations in this group for 2024. What stands out from the team’s ZiPS projections? Are you surprised by any players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Catching is one of the most demanding positions in baseball, with players taking a beating behind the plate. Many catchers like Joe Mauer are forced to move to other positions before their careers end. So, how does Mauer rank compared to the other top catchers from his era? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA TODAY Sports For many local fans, Joe Mauer’s Twins tenure was complicated because of various factors like injuries, his large contract, and his shift to first base. However, Mauer is seen in a different light at the national level, with many writers supporting his candidacy on the ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame. He is currently trending toward being inducted on the first ballot, but if he falls short, he will be elected in the coming years. Mauer played in an era with multiple catchers who put together Hall of Fame resumes. Like Mauer, Buster Posey was a high draft pick, and he helped the Giants win multiple World Series titles. Yadier Molina might be the best defensive catcher of all time while being part of multiple winning teams in St. Louis. So, how do these three catchers compare, and who is the best catcher of the era? WAR Wins Above Replacement has flaws, but it allows fans to understand how players compare from one era to the next. According to Baseball Reference, Mauer accumulated significantly more WAR than the other catcher counterparts from his era. Posey and Molina combined for similar totals, with Posey being slightly higher (44.8 compared to 42.3). Mauer was worth 55.2 WAR during his 15-year career, including five seasons where he posted a 5.5 WAR or higher. Nearly all of Mauer’s WAR value came on the offensive side with a 53.0 oWAR, while Molina was the significantly better defender (28.0 dWAR), but more on that later. WAR Ranking: 1. Mauer, 2. Posey, 3. Molina JAWS Jay Jaffe developed JAWS to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness. A player’s JAWS is their career WAR averaged with their seven-year peak WAR. According to JAWS, Mauer ranks as the seventh-best catcher, Posey ranks 14th, and Molina ranks 22nd. Since Mauer already leads in total WAR, it makes sense for him to have a higher JAWS ranking. Mauer’s seven-year peak WAR ranks fifth among catchers, with his MVP season (7.8 WAR) helping his overall numbers. Posey ranks 10th in seven-year peak WAR, while Molina ranks 25th. JAWS Ranking: 1. Mauer, 2. Posey, 3. Molina WPA Win Probability Added is the change in probability caused by a batter during a game for an average team. A change of +/-1 would indicate one win added or lost due to the results of that player. For hitters, WPA can be tied to the opportunities allotted to that batter, but throughout a career, it can point to a player helping his team to win. Mauer’s 27.6 WPA is nearly ten wins higher than Posey's and 24.5 wins higher than Molina's. WPA Ranking: 1. Mauer, 2. Posey, 3. Molina Weighted Runs Created + According to MLB.com, wRC+ takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors– like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted so that a league-average hitter would have a 100 wRC+, and 150 would be 50 percent above the league average. Mauer's time in the Metrodome hurts his overall numbers because it was a hitter-friendly environment. Posey played in San Francisco, which is less friendly to hitters. Overall, Posey finished with the highest wRC+ among this group (129), with Mauer not far behind (123). Molina ended his career with a 97 wRC+, which puts him slightly below the league average. wRC+ Ranking: 1. Posey, 2. Mauer, 3. Molina Postseason Resume Mauer’s postseason resume is significantly limited compared to the other two catchers because of his team’s inability to win a series during his career. Mauer played in 10 postseason games and went 11-for-40 (.275 BA) with one extra-base hit and a seven-to-four strikeout-to-walk ratio. Molina played in nearly 50 more playoff games than Posey and had superior offensive numbers. In 104 games, Molina’s OPS was 16 points higher while helping the Cardinals win two World Series titles. Posey gets the nod with the most World Series titles, but Molina ranks as the top postseason performer among this catching trio. Postseason Resume Ranking: 1. Molina, 2. Posey, 3. Mauer Defense Baseball has two sides to the game, and defense must be considered when looking at all-time great players. Molina is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball history, and his defensive resume might be enough to get him elected to Cooperstown. He won nine Gold Gloves and four Platinum Gloves while posting a 28.0 dWAR. Mauer earned three Gold Gloves, with Posey only earning one Gold Glove as he was competing directly with Molina. Mauer and Posey tied by throwing out 33% of runners during their careers, but Posey had 232 more stolen base attempts against him. Molina threw out 40% of batters in his career, including leading MLB in CS% in four different seasons. Defense Ranking: 1. Molina, 2. Posey, 3. Mauer Baseball has countless statistical areas to compare players, but there are some clear results among these three catchers. Jason Michalicek responded to me on X (formerly known as Twitter) with what I think is the best response. Mauer was the best offensively, Molina was the best defensively, and Posey was the most well-rounded in both areas. However, Mauer should be considered one of the best catchers ever. How would you rank these players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

First-round picks in the NFL and NBA can immediately impact teams, but the same can’t be said for MLB draftees. It takes time and developmental work for a player to reach the big-league level. Here is a look back at the last decade of first-round picks by the Twins. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, Jeffrey Becker, Dave Nelson–USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have focused on certain player types with their first-round picks, as the Twins have remained relevant in the AL Central. Strong organizations need to hit on their first-round picks and turn them into regulars at the big-league level. Let’s look back at the last decade to see how the team’s first-round picks have fared in their professional careers. 2023: Walker Jenkins (5th overall) The Twins benefited greatly by receiving a top-five pick in the inaugural MLB Draft Lottery. Last season’s draft had five tremendous players, and Minnesota was lucky to have Walker Jenkins still on the board with their pick. After signing, Jenkins split time between the FCL Twins and Fort Myers, hitting .362/.417/.571 with 12 extra-base hits in 26 games. He is widely considered the Twins’ top-ranked prospect, and there is a chance for him to be ranked as baseball’s number-one prospect at this time next year. 2022: Brooks Lee (8th overall) Minnesota’s 2021 season was disappointing, but a poor season meant the team received a high pick. Lee was considered one of the top collegiate bats in his draft class, and the Twins have seen those skills during the early stages of his professional career. Lee finished last season in St. Paul and hit .275/.347/.461, with 39 doubles, three triples, and 16 home runs in 125 games. He continues to see time at shortstop, but his long-term home might be at another infield position. He is considered one of baseball’s top 50 prospects and is expected to debut in 2024. 2021: Chase Petty (26th overall) The Twins traded Petty to the Reds for Sonny Gray leading into the 2022 season. It turned out to be an intelligent move by Minnesota’s front office, because they got two All-Star-caliber seasons from Gray and a draft pick at the end of the first round, after he declined the team’s qualifying offer. Petty pitched at High A and Double A last season in the Reds organization. In 18 games (68 innings), he posted a 1.72 ERA, with a 1.15 WHIP and a 66-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio. At the beginning of 2023, he missed time with an elbow injury that wasn’t considered serious. Petty was a high price to pay, but high-school pitchers have a challenging road to the big leagues. 2020: Aaron Sabato (27th overall) The 2020 MLB Draft will be remembered for many different reasons, since the pandemic limited the team’s ability to scout players. Minnesota took Sabato after he posted a 1.158 OPS in 83 collegiate games. Some evaluators questioned the pick, because Sabato was considered a first baseman or designated hitter, meaning he would need to hit at a very high level to make a real impact in the big leagues. In 2023, he played 77 games at Double A and posted a .759 OPS, with 32 extra-base hits and 103 strikeouts. Following the season, Minnesota sent him to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit seven homers and three doubles in 18 games. Sabato doesn’t seem to fit into the team’s long-term plans at this point, but he has the potential to surprise in 2024. 2019: Keoni Cavaco (13th overall) Cavaco gained a lot of steam in the weeks leading into the draft, so Minnesota selected him with the 13th pick in hopes that he could develop into a five-tool talent. His professional career has been a disappointment to this point, with a .610 OPS across four seasons. Last year, he dealt with some injuries and was limited to 63 games. At High A (59 games), he hit .193/.266/.287, with four doubles, five home runs, and an 88-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Originally drafted as a shortstop, he has continued to move down the defensive spectrum, sliding to third base before playing last season at first base. 2018: Trevor Larnach (20th overall) Twins fans have seen a lot of Larnach over the last three seasons, but it’s unclear what his long-term role with the big-league club can be. Since his rookie season, his OPS has risen by over 50 points, but his 98 OPS+ last season was still below league average. At Triple A, Larnach fared much better, hitting .271/.384/.504 with 30 extra-base hits in 72 games. However, his biggest flaw is hitting breaking pitches, and the level of competition is easier at Triple A. The 2024 season will be the make-or-break moment for Larnach to establish himself at the big-league level. 2017: Royce Lewis (1st overall) Minnesota’s first draft under Falvey and Levine came with high expectations and the first overall pick. There were multiple options for the top spot, but the Twins decided on Lewis, and he immediately became one of baseball’s top prospects. Torn ACLs in back-to-back seasons slowed down his progress, but he was a spark plug for the 2023 Twins, on the way to a division title. In 58 games, he posted a 150 OPS+, with seven doubles and 15 home runs. His home run heroics carried over into the postseason, where he helped Minnesota win its first playoff series in two decades. Lewis is on track to be the face of the franchise for the next decade. 2016: Alex Kirilloff (15th overall) Kirilloff was among the best high-school hitting prospects in his draft class, and he quickly moved into national top-100 lists. Baseball America and MLB.com ranked him in their top 15 prospects leading into the 2019 campaign. Injuries have slowed down his professional career, including Tommy John surgery, multiple wrist surgeries, and a shoulder procedure. He has flashed brief signs of being the hitter he was in the minors (including a 117 OPS+ last season), but he has yet to play more than 88 games in one big-league season. Minnesota hopes Kirilloff can begin to meet his expectations with a healthy season next year. 2015: Tyler Jay (6th overall) Jay was used as a relief pitcher in college, but the Twins felt like he had the tools to transition to a starting pitching role. He pitched five seasons in the Twins organization and topped out at Double A. Since leaving the Twins, he has pitched for two other organizations (Reds and Mets) and in the independent leagues. Last season, he started the year pitching for Joliet in the Frontier League and posted a 4.26 ERA (with a 1.18 WHIP) in 57 innings. The Mets organization added him at the end of August, and he made six relief appearances (6 IP) while allowing four earned runs. His time in the Twins organization had some good moments, but it was a failed experiment. 2014: Nick Gordon (5th overall) Gordon comes from a family of baseball players, and the Twins felt confident in taking him with a top-five pick back in 2014. He worked his way slowly through the farm system, before bursting onto the scene in 2022 with a 111 OPS+ in 136 games. Twins fans expected big things from him last season, but he struggled out of the gate (35 OPS+) before fracturing his right shin when he fouled a pitch off his leg. Minnesota offered him arbitration, and he will be in the outfield mix for 2024. Which players will have the most significant impact on the 2024 roster? Which player was the biggest disappointment? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Twins fans have seen this story play out before with low-contact sluggers. Just mentioning Miguel Sano or Joey Gallo conjures up images of high strikeout totals and low batting averages. Here are three reasons Matt Wallner won’t join this duo. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Last season, the Twins attempted to turn Joey Gallo into a reclamation project after a disastrous 2022 season. Gallo came out of the gate strongly with a 1.063 OPS in the season’s first month, including 11 extra-base hits (seven home runs) in 55 at-bats. Things took a turn for the worst from there as he hit .177/.301/.440 (.741) with a 142-to-48 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 111 games. Gallo’s big-league career will likely end unless he is willing to sign a minor-league deal and prove he can continue to provide value. Some fans were a little trepidatious about the team investing $11 million in Gallo after just parting ways with Miguel Sano. Gallo and Sano are similar player types who are low-contact sluggers who strike out at a high rate. In the StatCast era, they have the two highest strikeout rates, but they can both destroy a baseball when squaring up a home run. Strikeouts and low contact are never aesthetically pleasing to fans, but teams can value these traits if they are found in the right player. Earlier this week, Pitcher List’s John Foley wrote an article called “Applying the Lessons of Joey Gallo as 2024 Risk Indicators.” He wrote about Gallo’s in-zone contract rate being the lowest in the majors by 1.3 points while still posting above-average offensive totals (104 wRC+) with a solid slugging percentage and decent walk rate. Foley goes on to talk about multiple players who fit the same mold as Gallo, including Matt Wallner. There are reasons to be concerned about Wallner’s long-term player profile, but here are three reasons he won’t turn into the next Gallo or Sano. 1. Wallner Can Continue Unlocking More Power Wallner finished his rookie season hitting .249/.370/.507 (.877) with 11 doubles, one triple, and 14 home runs. While those numbers are reasonable, there might be signs that he can unlock more power. Wallner posted a .517 xSLG, higher than Gallo has posted in any season since 2019. Sano had two seasons with an xSLG above .500, his rookie season (2015) and the team's record-breaking home run season (2019). Wallner also showed power to all fields during his rookie campaign, while Gallo and Sano have been known as pull hitters. There are other adjustments Wallner needs to make, but he has the potential to showcase more power over the course of an entire season. 2. Wallner Had a Higher Walk Rate in the Minors Gallo and Sano were known as patient hitters, even if they did strike out at the highest rates in the Statcast Era. Both batters knew how to work a count and take a walk when necessary. Wallner has shown some of the same ability, especially during his time in the minors. In 2022, he posted an 18.1 BB% at Double-A and a 15.3 BB% after being promoted to Triple-A. Last season in St. Paul, his walk rate was nearly 13%, but that dipped a couple of points at the big-league level. Sano had an 11.6 BB% for his career, while Gallo has walked in 14.8% of his plate appearances. With more MLB experience, Wallner’s walk rate should continue to improve and be closer to the totals he showcased in the minors. 3. Wallner Can Avoiding Pitches Higher in the Zone Wallner whiffed on pitches up in the zone regularly last season. However, he has a good eye for those pitches, so he has shown the ability to lay off those pitches. Wallner is a taller player, and pitching up in the zone can be enticing for a player with his skillset because they are balls he could hit out of the park in the minors. There is room for him to continue avoiding pitches higher in the zone to make pitchers throw him better balls to hit. By doing this, he will help his walk rate and his power numbers. Can Wallner continue to improve and avoid comparisons to Gallo and Sano? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

FanSided's Robert Murray is reporting that Michael A. Taylor is drawing interest from the Angels, Padres, and Pirates. Two other veteran center fielders have already signed (Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader) so this leaves Taylor as one of the only legitimate centerfielders on the open market outside of Cody Bellinger. Kiermaier and Bader each signed one-year deals for $10.5 million. Murray also suggests that the Red Sox and Twins might be interested in Taylor. Where do you think Taylor signs? View full rumor

Former Red Sox great Kevin Youkilis was known as the Greek God of Walks for his ability to work the count and get on base. Now, the Twins may have a player following in his footsteps. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports There's a famous scene in the 2011 movie Moneyball, in which Brad Pitt's and Jonah Hill’s characters try to convince Oakland’s scouting staff of ways the team can replace the good players they are losing in free agency. It’s a back-and-forth conversation, but the basic premise is that the scout says, “Why do you like him?” And the front office duo responds, “He gets on base.” This scene oversimplifies sabermetric ideas at the time, but the concept holds true. Working a count and getting on base are tremendously valuable skills, and Edouard Julien seems to have mastered them. Julien’s baseball journey has been anything but typical. A native of Quebec, he showed up at Auburn University as a teenager who spoke little English. He drew 38 walks in 251 plate appearances during his freshman season, and posted a .398 OBP. In 2019, he walked at an even higher rate, with 46 free passes in 294 plate appearances. Based on his collegiate performance, the Twins selected Julien in the 18th round of the 2019 MLB Draft. Julien wasn’t a highly-ranked player coming out of high school, and his college career didn’t elevate his draft stock to elite levels. It only garnered enough attention to net him a $493,000 bonus as a late-round pick by the Twins. He’s had to prove himself every step of the way, including his time after signing that deal. His professional debut came in 2021, and he continued to show an exceptional eye at the plate. In 112 games, he coaxed 110 walks and posted a .434 OBP between Low A and High A. Minnesota sent him to Double A in 2022, where he was over a year younger than the average age of the competition. He drew 98 walks in 113 games and posted a .441 OBP. Julien didn’t make any national top-100 lists, but he rose on Twins lists, including being Twins Daily’s fifth-ranked prospect. It seemed as though he was on the cusp of impacting the big-league roster. During the World Baseball Classic, Julien announced himself to the baseball world. He destroyed the ball for Team Canada, including a 1.821 OPS, the highest total by any hitter in the tournament. Minnesota sent Julien to Triple-A St. Paul to start the year, and he posted a .435 OBP with 32 walks in 38 games. The Twins called him up in the middle of April for his first taste of the big leagues, and he’d move back and forth between Triple-A during the season’s early months. On June 10th, he rejoined the Twins and stayed at the big-league level for the balance of the campaign. During his rookie season, Julien hit .263/.381/.459, with 16 doubles and 16 home runs. Most notably, he continued to draw walks at an incredible rate. Julien’s walk rate was fifth-best among big-league hitters with 400 or more plate appearances. The players ahead of him on the list were Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, and Andrew McCutchen. Those are some of the most patient hitters in the game. Julien also had the lowest out-of-zone swing rate of any player in the league (see below). When a player works ahead in the count, they have a better chance to get a pitch they can hit for power. Julien posted a .529 OBP and a .987 OPS when he was ahead. It’s exciting to see the company Julien has already joined and to project what he might be able to accomplish in his sophomore season. Projection models can be fickle, especially for players with a specific skill set like Julien’s. Baseball Reference projects Julien will hit .267/.370/.462, with 55 walks in 404 PA. If I were a betting man, I’d take the over on his walks and OBP. Yet, there is also a chance that the league will catch up to Julien next season and not allow him to draw as many walks. He will need to continue to make adjustments, and there may be times of the year when he must be aggressive at the plate. One adjustment facing Julien next season is his approach with two strikes. Last season, he was very passive in two-strike counts, which led to him taking a lot of called third strikes. Among MLB hitters, he had the lowest swing rate (42.7%) of any hitter with two strikes, ranking 3.3% lower than the next-most selective guys (Juan Soto and Matt Wallner). With two strikes, Julien hit .147/.298/.199 (.497), with 128 strikeouts in 235 plate appearances. He must be more aggressive in two-strike counts, to keep pitchers honest and moderate his high strikeout totals. Julien is a different style of hitter than the Twins have had in quite some time. He was a late-round steal in the draft and is quickly developing into the Canadian God of Walks. Why do the Twins like him? He gets on base, which could make for an exciting 2024 season. What are your expectations for Julien in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Every year, some players outperform their earned expectations, and others fail to live up to their previous year’s performance. Here are four Twins players who might be headed for regression in 2024. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Regression impacts even the greatest players in baseball history. Age is an obvious and essentially universal factor in projecting changes in player performance over time, but other factors, like injuries, can have an impact, too. Last year, the Twins saw Carlos Correa have arguably his worst big-league season because he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Minnesota hopes Correa is back to full strength in 2024, but who are some players that the regression bug might bite? 4. Max Kepler, OF Kepler struggled out of the gate in 2023, hitting .207/.279/.409 with five doubles and 12 home runs in the first half. Some fans called for the Twins to cut ties with Kepler, because it seemed like the team had other, better options than their long-time right fielder. In the second half, though, Kepler played at a level he had rarely attained previously. He hit .306/.377/.549, with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs in 66 games after the All-Star break. His offense helped carry the Twins to a division title, but his performance was clearly an outlier from the rest of his nine-year track record. Baseball Reference projects Kepler to post a .746 OPS in 2024, while FanGraphs has him pegged for a .779. In his career, Kepler has only posted OPS totals higher than those projections in 2019 and 2023. Minnesota is also looking to trade veteran players to create salary space to reinforce the starting pitching. Kepler’s value might be at an all-time high, so his regression might be another team’s problem. 3. Ryan Jeffers, C Jeffers surprised many during his rookie year, by posting a 119 OPS+ in the shortened 2020 season. He failed to reproduce those numbers in 2021 and 2022, with an 84 OPS+, forcing the Twins to add catching depth in the person of Christian Vazquez last winter. Jeffers responded with his best professional season, hitting .276/.369/.490 with a 134 OPS+ and 31 extra-base hits in 96 games. He led all catchers (minimum 250 at-bats) in OPS+, and finished seventh in WAR at the position. It was a breakout season, which has made the Twins more comfortable shopping Vázquez and other veterans this winter. Baseball Reference projects Jeffers to hit .246/.326/.438 with 17 doubles and 15 home runs next season. FanGraphs forecasts a .743 OPS, with a 105 wRC+ and a 1.7 WAR. Both projection systems have him with a higher OPS than his career average, but a lower one than what he posted last season. His 2.7 WAR last season was three times more than he has contributed in any other season. Jeffers is locked into the team’s catcher role for the foreseeable future, and it would be nice for him to continue building off last year’s performance. 2. Brock Stewart, RP Stewart dominated during his first season in a Twins uniform, but an elbow injury limited him to fewer than 28 innings pitched. He provided Minnesota with 0.9 fWAR and 1.6 rWAR, which is remarkable considering the lack of sheer innings. His 0.65 ERA was immaculate, but his FIP was 2.21, so there might have been some luck associated with his overall numbers. Stewart posted a 35.8 K%, over 14 points higher than his previous career average. For his career, he has never pitched more than 34 1/3 innings at the big-league level, so the Twins hope he can top that mark next season in a setup role. Baseball Reference projects Stewart to post a 3.46 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a 41-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 39 innings in 2024. Those totals are certainly adequate, but it’s a steep drop from the 12.7 strikeouts per nine frames he posted in 2023. FanGraphs estimates that Stewart will post a 3.48 ERA with a 30.1 K% in 63 innings. It’s hard to imagine that he would get to 63 innings with his lengthy injury history, but relievers can be inconsistent from one season to the next. Overall, Stewart’s numbers must regress next season, because he was so good in 2023. 1. Willi Castro, UTIL Castro surprised many with his performance last season, hitting .257/.339/.411 with 32 extra-base hits and 33 steals. During his four seasons in Detroit, Castro averaged a .673 OPS (87 OPS+), so his 106 OPS+ last year didn’t match his career totals. He gave the Twins tremendous value, especially since the team was comfortable using him at multiple defensive positions. Castro was one of the team’s most valuable offensive players, which is crazy to think about since he wasn’t guaranteed to make the team coming out of spring training. Baseball Reference projects Castro’s OPS to drop 40 points next season, which is 16 points higher than his career average. FanGraphs believes he will have a .705 OPS, with a 1.0 WAR, a 1.5-win drop from 2023. There is a reason why Castro was available on waivers last winter, and other teams didn’t claim him. The 2023 season might have been his peak, which only points to his performance declining in 2024. Do you agree with the above rankings? Would you add other players to the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Chris Paddack and Matt Canterino both suffered terrible elbow injuries, but thankfully, they had each other to rely on during the rehab process. Now healthy, what can each add to Minnesota’s pitching staff next season? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports, Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge Tommy John surgery has become more commonplace in the baseball world, but that doesn’t mean the rehabilitation process is any easier for players who undergo it. Pitchers who have been throwing on a regular basis suddenly have to stop, and eventually start over from Square One. It takes time for the elbow to heal, and even more time for pitchers to teach their bodies how to throw with velocity and command the ball. Recovering from an injury can make a player feel like they are on an island, but two Twins players were able to help each other get to the rehab finish line. Chris Paddack and Matt Canterino had Tommy John surgery within weeks of each other in 2022. For Paddack, it was the second time he’d had the operation in his career, which lengthened the recovery timeline. Canterino has been ranked among the team’s top pitching prospects (he's currently Twins Daily's 20th-ranked prospect) since the Twins took him with their second-round pick in 2019, from Rice University. Pitchers from that school throw a lot of collegiate innings, and many end up needing elbow surgery. Paddack and Canterino found each other in Fort Myers and were able to build a relationship. Recently, Canterino talked with MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park about how he and Paddack were able to work together. “We got to pick each other's brains a little bit, talk about what we wanted to work on and how we wanted to make sure that we were using this time to get better, not just trying to get back to where we were,” Canterino said. Canterino’s professional career has been marred by injuries. He’s been limited to 85 innings across three seasons, but when he’s been on the mound, he's been dominant: a 1.48 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and 13.8 K/9. Those video game-type numbers are impossible to sustain, but Canterino is showing signs that what he worked on with Paddack might be paying off in the long term. Canterino also offered some insight into his thought process for next season. “Obviously, I'm shaking off some of the rust and everything in terms of command and maybe some of the pitch metrics and everything like that, but I was throwing my slider harder than it was in ’22,” Canterino said. “I got plenty of swing and miss on my changeup, which was one of my best strikeout pitches whenever I pitched in Double A.” Canterino got to witness the success of his Tommy John buddy at the end of 2022. Paddack made two relief appearances in the Houston playoff series, while tossing 3 2/3 scoreless innings with six strikeouts and no walks. His velocity saw a noticeable uptick in shortened outings. Minnesota plans to have Paddack return to a starting role in 2024, and there is potential for him to step into the role vacated by Kenta Maeda. Last season, Maeda was returning from his own Tommy John surgery and pitched 104 1/3 innings, with a 4.23 ERA. Those totals are reasonable expectations for Paddack this season, mainly since he will likely be limited in the amount of innings he can pitch in his first full season back from injury. “I would say it was more joy for Chris than anything," Canterino told Twins Daily's Seth Stohs. "I saw his process. I saw how hard he worked every day. And I saw how much he got to know some of the minor leaguers and formed relationships with people that he didn’t have to in Fort Myers. It was a lot of joy for him, knowing it was a culmination of everything he’s been working on.” Canterino is on the Twins’ 40-man roster, so there is a good chance he will make his big-league debut next season if he is fully healthy. His role isn’t as straightforward as Paddack's, but his doctor told him 125 innings are not out of the question in 2024. Minnesota might also decide to move Canterino to a bullpen role to better manage his innings, especially since the lines continue to blur between the roles of starters and multi-inning relievers. Canterino could be a frontline starter if he can stay healthy. However, he seems more likely to succeed in a bullpen role, where his stuff can reach another level. What roles will Paddack and Canterino fill on the 2024 Twins? Can both pitchers be impact players on a contending team? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article