Cody Christie

Joe Mauer is in his first year of eligibility for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and joins a crowded ballot. Who makes the cut for the Class of 2024? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Every year, there is plenty to debate when it comes to baseball's highest honor. Who should (or shouldn’t) be elected to Cooperstown’s hallowed halls? Last year, Scott Rolen was the lone player elected by the BBWAA, with Todd Helton falling 11 votes shy of induction. This year’s ballot is full of question marks, and there is a chance for multiple players to be elected when results are announced in the coming days. As a reminder, the National Baseball Hall of Fame specifies that “[o]nly active and honorary members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, who have been active baseball writers for at least ten (10) years, shall be eligible to vote.” In order to receive a vote, a writer must have been a member of the BBWAA for at least a decade. Voters can select up to 10 players per ballot, making it difficult if a voter feels there are more than that many worthy candidates up for election. Below are my predictions for the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot, broken into three categories, including the Class of 2024, Future Inductees, and May Never Get In (But Still On My Ballot). Class of 2024 Adrian Beltre (1st Ballot) Beltré is a lock to be elected on his first ballot and has a chance (however remote) to be the second player elected unanimously, after Mariano Rivera. He is a five-time Gold Glove winner, and finished his career with 477 home runs and 3,166 hits. There were six seasons in which he finished in the top six for MVP voting, and he ranks second all-time in WAR runs above average from fielding, behind Brooks Robinson. Jay Jaffe's Jaffe Average WAR Score (JAWS) is a way to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness. It averages their career WAR and their seven-year peak WAR. Beltré ranks fourth all-time among third basemen, and the top 11 are enshrined in Cooperstown. Billy Wagner (2023 Results: 68.1%) Relief pitchers are an underrepresented group in Cooperstown, with only eight Hall of Famers at the position. According to JAWS, the top five relievers have been elected, and Wagner ranks sixth. He collected 422 saves, while racking up 1,196 strikeouts with a 2.31 ERA. He was selected to seven All-Star Games and played on seven playoff teams. In the Live Ball Era, only Rivera has a lower ERA with a minimum of 705 innings pitched. Wagner is in his ninth year on the ballot, so he must be elected over the subsequent two voting cycles, or he'll fall off the ballot. Todd Helton is also on track to be inducted this year, but I wouldn’t include him on my ballot because of his off-field issues. He has been arrested multiple times for DUI, where his blood alcohol level was dangerously high. Other voters will select him, though, and he will get his moment in Cooperstown later this summer. Future Inductees Carlos Beltran (2023 Results: 46.5%) Beltrán wasn't elected on his first chance last winter, partially because of his ties to the 2017 Astros’ cheating scandal. He was a nine-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glove winner, and won the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 1999. In 20 seasons, he hit .279/.350/.486 with 435 home runs and 1,587 RBI. He’s among 38 players in AL/NL history to have more than 1,500 runs scored and runs batted in, and 29 of other 37 have been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. He is also one of five players with 500 doubles, 400 home runs, and 300 stolen bases. It will take time for the writers to forgive him for leading the sign-stealing scandal, but he will be inducted on a future ballot. Joe Mauer (1st Ballot) Twins Daily has had plenty of discussion regarding Mauer’s candidacy for the Hall of Fame. For his career, he hit .306/.388/.439 with a 124 OPS+, on his way to winning three batting titles and five Silver Sluggers. He was the first American League catcher to win a batting title and the only backstop since the great Josh Gibson to win three. Defensively, he won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2008-10 and was elected to six All-Star Games. His 2009 MVP season is arguably the best offensive season from a catcher in baseball history. Mauer finished the season hitting .365/.444/.587 with a 171 OPS+. He set a major-league record for highest batting average by a catcher and became the first repeat batting champion in nearly a decade. Mauer will likely finish short of induction in his first year on the ballot, before being inducted next season. Chase Utley (1st Ballot) Utley joins Mauer and Beltré in a solid class of first-ballot names to consider. Utley ranks 12th all-time among second basemen in JAWS, with nine of the 11 names ahead of him already inducted. He was a six-time All-Star, and helped the Phillies win the 2008 World Series. Utley provided value in all parts of the game, with a career 117 OPS+ and terrific defense at second base. He collected 154 stolen bases, and his 87.5% success rate is the best of all time in MLB, with a minimum of 100 swipes. Voters will support him, but it likely takes multiple appearances on the ballot to be elected. Andruw Jones has slowly been gaining support on recent ballots, and he is on pace to finish with more than 60% of the vote in the current voting cycle. However, in 2012, he was arrested for a graphic domestic assault on his former wife. He will likely get in on a future vote, but I am not including him on my ballot. May Never Get In (But Still On My Ballot) Torii Hunter (2023 Results: 6.9%) Hunter has survived on the ballot, despite receiving less than 7% percent of the vote in his first three voting cycles. (Any player who receives less than 5 percent of votes cast is removed from future ballots.) He won nine consecutive Gold Gloves from 2001-09, and was selected to five All-Star teams. He posted a career .793 OPS at the plate, earning two Silver Slugger Awards. He was an elite defender in the first half of his career who redeveloped himself into a strong hitter and fine corner outfielder later. Hunter holds a special place in the hearts of Twins fans, so he’d get my vote, even if he won’t be elected. Gary Sheffield (2023 Results: 55%) Sheffield is in his 10th and final year of eligibility. He hit 509 career home runs, including 30 homers in eight different seasons. He was a nine-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger, and a batting champion. He finished with an OPS+ of at least 130 in 14 different seasons. His support has been lacking in previous votes because his name appeared in the Mitchell report, and because he spent one winter working out with Barry Bonds. Also, his defense was atrocious. Still, few players of the era could match him for sheer offensive danger. Final Ballot (in alphabetical order) 1. Carlos Beltrán 2. Adrian Beltré 3. Torii Hunter 4. Joe Mauer 5. Gary Sheffield 6. Billy Wagner 7. Chase Utley To see the complete 2024 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, CLICK HERE. On Jan. 23, the BBWAA will announce the 2024 Hall of Fame balloting results. Any players chosen will be inducted during Hall of Fame Weekend from July 19-22, 2024. Who makes your Hall of Fame ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Joe Mauer is trending in the right direction to be a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer. One of the biggest reasons he is on that track is because his case fits both new- and old-school voting styles. Voting for the National Baseball Hall of Fame is not an exact science. It's rarely treated as a science at all, by those who participate in it. Some voters take an old-school approach and value traditional statistics, like batting average, All-Star appearances, MVPs, and so on. Other voters take a more new-school approach, and consider items like JAWS, WAR, and other 21st-century metrics. There is no perfect answer for who should or shouldn’t be elected; that’s why there can be debate among fans and writers. In order to be elected, players need 75 percent of eligible BBWAA writers to check their name on the ballot. Joe Mauer has garnered more than enough support to be elected on the ballots that have been revealed so far, but that doesn’t mean he will stay above the threshold. Some candidates see their percentage drop when non-public ballots are counted, so Mauer needs to build up a cushion before ballots are due at the end of the year. Mauer’s greatness has been debated among Twins fans for various reasons. On a national level, many view Mauer as a surefire Hall of Famer, even if he doesn’t get elected on the first ballot. His résumé includes old- and new-school traits that will appeal to all voters. Old-School Résumé 1. Batting Titles: Old-school voters love nothing more than a good ol’ batting champ. Batting average is an easy statistic to understand, and the prestige of the batting crown stretches back well over 100 years. Mauer won three batting titles, and did so in record-breaking fashion. He won three batting titles and hit .306/.388/.439 for his career. Mauer was the first AL catcher to win a batting title. Three NL catchers have won batting titles, but only Josh Gibson of the 1930s Negro National League matched Mauer’s trio. His second batting title in 2009 made him the first repeat batting champion in nearly a decade. From 2004-2013, he had baseball’s second-best batting average, behind Miguel Cabrera. 2. MVP season: Johnny Bench is the gold standard at catcher, and his 1972 season might be the best ever at the position. Mauer’s 2009 MVP is not far behind. In 138 games, he hit .365/.444/.587 with 30 doubles and 28 home runs. He set the MLB record for highest average by a catcher since World War II. Mauer fell one vote shy of being unanimous, so he got support from both sides of the aisle. 3. Other Hardware and Old-School Stats: Mauer’s résumé includes multiple other honors outside of his MVP. He was a six-time All-Star, winning three Gold Gloves and five Silver Sluggers. He finished in the top eight for MVP in four different seasons. Mauer was the 10th player in MLB history who started at least half of his games as a catcher to collect 2,000 hits. Only 14 players have more than Mauer’s three batting titles. Overall, he was a No. 1 pick in the draft who played his entire career for his hometown team, and that storyline should help his candidacy. New-School Résumé 1. JAWS: Jay Jaffe’s JAWS attempts to rank players based on their worthiness for the Hall of Fame. According to Baseball Reference, a player’s JAWS is their career WAR averaged with their seven-year peak WAR. Mauer has the seventh-highest JAWS among catchers, and is the only player in the top 11 who has yet to be enshrined in Cooperstown. His seven-year peak WAR ranks as the fifth-best in MLB history, ahead of current Hall of Famers like Yogi Berra and Carlton Fisk. Mauer is among the best catchers of all time, and it’s not particularly close. 2. MVP Season: Mauer led the AL in multiple statistical areas that appeal to those with a primarily new-school thought process. Mauer finished first in Offensive WAR (7.7), OBP (.444), SLG (.587), OPS (1.031), Adjusted OPS+ (171), Runs Created (138), Adjusted Batting Runs (58), Adjusted Batting Wins (5.3), and Offensive Win % (.791). He was the first AL player to top the league in BA, OBP, and SLG (the rate stat Triple Crown) since George Brett in 1980. 3. Other Numbers and New-School Stats: Only four catchers in MLB history had a higher WAR for their first ten seasons, including Bench, Mike Piazza, Gary Carter, and Mickey Cochrane. He was considered an above-average pitch framer, and had the seventh-best fielding percentage for all catchers. Among the 20 players who played at least 50 percent of their non-pinch-hitting games behind the plate and accumulated at least 7,000 PA in the AL and NL, Mauer ranks sixth with a 124 OPS+. Jaffe wrote about Mauer’s candidacy at FanGraphs and included this fitting quote from one of baseball’s best broadcasters. Former White Sox’s play-by-play announcer Jason Benetti, offered these words on the occasion of Mauer's beautiful final appearance at catcher in 2018: “None of us gets to choose how we’re remembered on this planet. But in the game of baseball, every once in a while, a player so special to a town gets to choose how he walks off the field for a final time. If this is it for Joe Mauer, a fitting, touching, and warm send-off on a chilly day in the Twin Cities.” Only two catchers were elected on the first ballot: Bench (1989) and Iván Rodríguez (2017). Will Mauer join them? Do you take a new- or old-school approach to looking at Mauer’s HOF candidacy? Will his candidacy be helped because of voters from both voting styles? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Every team makes poor trades, and sometimes, it takes years for a front office to know the total value lost or gained in a transaction. Tyler Mahle’s time is done in Minnesota, and it's a tenure that fans will remember for all the wrong reasons. Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports On Dec. 14, Tyler Mahle signed a two-year contract with the Texas Rangers for $22 million. He’ll miss the start of the 2024 season as he completes his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Expectations are for him to be able to return around the All-Star break, which is near the time the Rangers expect Jacob deGrom to return, as well. With the deal, Mahle can prove he is healthy and reach free agency again for his age-31 season. The Twins traded for Mahle because the club was in contention and needed a frontline starter. Things couldn’t have gone much worse, with injuries impacting his entire Twins tenure. He made three starts before landing on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Mahle returned for one more appearance, but left early. He missed the final four weeks, as Minnesota fell out of contention. The Twins hoped Mahle could return in 2023 and help the rotation. Unfortunately, he was limited to five starts before suffering the elbow injury that led to surgery. Overall, he made nine starts and provided the Twins with 0.6 WAR. Minnesota traded away Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar, whom the Reds subsequently flipped to the Guardians as part of a trade for Will Benson. Steer has played 184 big-league games since the trade and posted a 113 OPS+, while providing the Reds with 3.0 WAR. Encarnacion-Strand began last season at Triple-A before making his debut. In 63 games, he posted a 113 OPS+, with 0.6 WAR. Both players have promising futures and have shown the ability to be successful at the big-league level. Each is under team control for the foreseeable future. The trade will look worse as both players establish themselves as everyday players and accumulate more WAR. So, what are some of the other bad trades in team history, and where does the Mahle trade rank? 2007 Twins Acquire: Brendan Harris (-0.6 WAR), Jason Pridie (-0.2 WAR), Delmon Young (1.0 WAR) Rays Acquire: Eddie Morlan (0.0 WAR), Jason Bartlett (10.4 WAR), Matt Garza (8.5 WAR) Trade Result: -19.4 WAR Recently, Gregg Masterson wrote about the Young trade and how it continues to haunt the Twins 17 years later. At the time, the Twins wanted a right-handed slugger to hit between Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, so the team was willing to trade multiple young pieces. Bartlett became an All-Star in Tampa, and Garza won ALCS MVP in 2008. Young never developed into the player the Twins hoped he’d be in the middle of the lineup. His OPS+ was only above 100 in one season with the Twins, and his defense was an adventure in right field. The Mahle trade hasn’t reached this level yet, but there is still time. 2010 Twins Acquire: Brett Jacobson (0.0 WAR), Jim Hoey (-0.8 WAR) Orioles Acquire: JJ Hardy (15.7 WAR), Brendan Harris (0.0 WAR) Trade Result: -16.5 WAR The Twins traded Carlos Gomez for Hardy to take over shortstop for 2010, but his time was limited in Minnesota. He suffered multiple injuries and hit .268/.320/.394, with 28 extra-base hits in 101 games. Minnesota dealt Hardy and Harris away for two relievers to make room on the roster for Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who compiled -2.3 WAR with the Twins. While Nishioka struggled, Hardy became an All-Star in Baltimore, winning three Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. Jacobson never made the big leagues, and Hoey didn’t make another appearance after leaving the Twins. 1995 Twins Acquire: Kimera Bartee (0.0 WAR), Scott Klingenbeck (-1.6 WAR) Orioles Acquire: Scott Erickson (13.1 WAR) Trade Result: -14.7 WAR Erickson had helped the Twins win the 1991 World Series and finished runner-up for the Cy Young, but he struggled from 1993-95, with an ERA north of 5.00. Minnesota sent Erickson to Baltimore, where he reinvented himself and averaged over 230 innings per season in a four-year stretch. Injuries impacted the end of his career, but the Twins got negative value back in return, including Klingenbeck, who struggled mightily during his time in Minnesota. Will the Mahle trade surpass the Delmon Young trade in lost WAR? Would you rank any other trades as the worst in team history? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins and Mariners are each in the midst of a winning window, and they have the potential to match up in trades that help both rosters. What are each team’s needs, and what deals between them could make sense? Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports After making the playoffs for the first time since 2001, the Mariners entered 2023 with high expectations. Alas, Seattle lost six of their final 10 games and finished one game behind Toronto for the final Wild Card spot. It was a disappointing end for a team that many considered ascendent, with young stars like Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby. As with any offseason, the Mariners will try to find ways to supplement their roster, but they face financial uncertainty. Like Minnesota, Seattle is dealing with their own fallout from the nationwide collapse of regional sports networks. Last season, the Mariners’ payroll sat around $140 million, and the front office hopes to increase that total for 2024. Seattle now owns all of ROOT Sports Northwest, their regional sports network, and the network was attached to a price increase with the largest cable distributor in the Mariners’ region. Seattle has already been active on the trade market, dealing away pieces with contracts that might not fit their current roster. In November, the Mariners traded Eugenio Suarez ($11.3 million) to Arizona for Carlos Vargas and Seby Zavala, who are not yet arbitration eligible. At the Winter Meetings, they packaged Jarred Kelenic ($750,000), Marco Gonzalez ($12.25 million), and Evan White ($7 million) for two other cheap, cost-controlled players, Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. It’s clear that Seattle needs to find ways to improve, and cutting these salaries was only the first step. Seattle’s most significant needs are in the lineup, and they have room to add righties and lefties. After the Kelenic trade, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters that the club wanted to add two or three bats. Still, they are reluctant to deal away starting pitching, one of baseball’s most valuable commodities. Potential trade chips include Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, or Bryan Woo. So, what are some potential trades between these two clubs? All trade values are from Baseball Trade Values, based on the concept of surplus value (number in parentheses) above what the player is being paid and the years of team control. Potential Trade 1 Twins Receive: Bryan Woo (28.2) Mariners Receive: Max Kepler (8.3), Matt Wallner (23.1) Woo made his big-league debut last season and posted a 4.21 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP across 16 starts. In 87 2/3 innings, he had a 93-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he allowed 13 home runs (1.3 HR/9). Seattle had Woo jump from Double A to the big leagues after he dominated that level with a 2.05 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and 12.1 K/9. Wallner and Kepler have similar skill sets, but the Mariners want to upgrade their offense and both would be better than their incumbents. Kepler’s 121 OPS+ last season would have ranked third on the Mariners, behind J.P. Crawford and Rodríguez. Wallner only got 254 plate appearances in the big leagues, but his 139 OPS+ would have been eight points higher than Rodríguez's. Potential Trade 2 Mariners Receive: Jorge Polanco (9.4), Emmanuel Rodriguez (17.1) Twins Receive: Bryce Miller (25.9) Miller, like Woo, debuted in 2023. In 25 games, he had a 4.32 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and 8.2 K/9. His 3.98 FIP was lower than his ERA, so there may be room for statistical (as well as actual) improvement. For Seattle, Polanco and Rodríguez might offer the best combination of present and future value. Polanco is under team control for two more seasons and has some defensive flexibility to fit into the Mariners lineup. Rodríguez has one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in the Twins organization and is projected to spend next season at Double A. Last season, Rodríguez posted an .863 OPS with 38 extra-base hits in 99 games. Potential Trade 3 Mariners Receive: Edouard Julien (34.5), Brooks Lee (33.5) Twins Receive: Logan Gilbert (65.9) The Twins might want to trade for a pitcher with a more established track record than the less-experienced Woo or Miller. Gilbert has pitched nearly 500 innings at the big-league level and is in his first year of arbitration eligibility as a Super 2 player. In 2023, he tossed 190 2/3 innings with a 3.73 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9. Julien and Lee would be a tough combo to lose at this early juncture in their careers, but frontline starting pitching comes at a high price. Julien posted a 130 OPS+ in 109 games last season, while Lee combined for an .808 OPS between Double and Triple A. Which trade is the best fit for both teams? Which starting pitcher is the right one for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Last winter, the Twins worked out a trade with the Marlins that benefited both clubs. Can the two teams agree on another deal that sends a starting pitcher to Minnesota? Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports Entering the 2023 season, the Twins’ rotation was composed entirely of players acquired via trade. Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, and Tyler Mahle were the team’s five starters on Opening Day. Bailey Ober was the only homegrown option, but he started the year in St. Paul. Derek Falvey has shown a keen ability in both Cleveland and Minnesota to trade for impact starting pitchers. Minnesota is likely to follow a similar path this winter, especially with the financial uncertainty surrounding the team's television contract. The Twins and Marlins were in a unique position last winter. Both teams sought to contend in 2023, but there were holes on both rosters. The Twins acquired López and a pair of minor leaguers for Luis Arraez. López developed into the frontline starter the Twins needed, and Arraez took home the NL batting title, while helping Miami to the playoffs. It was a win for both clubs. The Marlins are in a similar position this winter, needing to upgrade their lineup while having a number of team-controlled starting pitchers. Over the weekend, Jesús Luzardo’s name came up in trade rumors, because the Royals were interested in him before moving on to free-agent alternatives. Ken Rosenthal reported that Miami and Kansas City discussed a trade that included the southpaw being traded for first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who is under team control for five more seasons. Luzardo is an intriguing name with some potential upside, meaning the Twins might be able to follow a path similar to last year's approach with López. Luzardo is a first-year arbitration-eligible player, so he is under team control through the 2026 season. Over the last two seasons, he posted a 3.52 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 in 279 innings. His four-seam fastball usage went from 29.3% in 2022 to 46% last season, with his sinker usage dropping by over 14 percentage points. The Twins were able to help López add a sweeper after he joined the club, and Luzardo has a solid slider. Could the Twins reshape that pitch, too, to make it even more of a weapon? All trades below include the player's surplus value according to Baseball Trade Values. Potential Trade 1 Marlins Receive: Matt Wallner (23.1 surplus value), Brooks Lee (33.5), and a low-level minor leaguer Twins Receive: Luzardo (63.3) Wallner and Lee are the last two winners of the team’s Minor League Player of the Year award. Lee finished last season at Triple A and is on the cusp of making his big-league debut. In 125 games, he hit .275/.347/.461, with 39 doubles, 3 triples, and 16 home runs. He is widely considered the team’s second-ranked prospect, behind Walker Jenkins. Wallner, meanwhile, was part of a trio of Twins rookies who posted OPS+ figures north of 125. As with most power hitters, he has some swing-and-miss to his offensive profile, but he can connect for massive home runs. From Miami’s perspective, this trade gives the club two MLB-ready bats and another prospect that can be a wild card to add to their organizational depth. Potential Trade 2 Marlins Receive: Edouard Julien (34.5), Emmanuel Rodriguez (17.1), and Max Kepler (8.3) Twins Receive: Luzardo (63.3) Woof. This is a lot to give up for Luzardo, but starting pitching comes at a premium. Julien established himself at the big-league level last season, with a 130 OPS+ in 109 games. Minnesota wants him to be part of the team’s future, but the same could have been said for Arraez last season. Rodriguez helped the Cedar Rapids Kernels win the Midwest League Championship last season after posting an .863 OPS with 38 extra-base hits in 99 games. Kepler’s trade value might be at an all-time high, after a tremendous second half in 2023. He only has one year of team control remaining, which takes away some surplus value. In this deal, the Marlins get two bats for now and one who can help the club in the future. Potential Trade 3 Marlins Receive: Ryan Jeffers (28.5), Jorge Polanco (9.4), Trevor Larnach (3.6), and Round B Competitive Balance Pick Twins Receive: Luzardo (63.3) Luzardo’s value is so high that this deal might not be enough to get it done. The Twins have been shopping veteran players like Christian Vazquez, so it’s interesting to consider the team dealing Jeffers, who has more trade value, instead. Polanco has two years of team control left, and his switch-hitting ability adds value. The Marlins already have Arraez at second base, so they need to make some defensive adjustments to fit both players in the lineup, but they've made a habit of building their rosters out of second basemen. Larnach currently doesn’t have a place with the Twins, and a change of scenery might help him to unlock his full potential. Do any of these trades work for both teams? Would you include other players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins’ future looks brighter, after they won their first playoff series in two decades. A new wave of impact players are getting closer to the big leagues, and here is what Minnesota’s starting lineup might look like in four years. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA TODAY Sports A lot has changed for the Twins over the last calendar year, which impacts who projects to be in the team’s lineup in four years. The Twins traded away Luis Arraez, even though he looked like a core piece of the lineup for years to come. Minnesota also handed out the largest free-agent contract in team history, a move that will have long-term ramifications. Below, you will see Minnesota’s projected lineup and each player’s age during the 2027 campaign. Catcher: Ryan Jeffers (30) Entering last season, Jeffers’s stock was low enough for the Twins to sign veteran catcher Christian Vazquez. Jeffers responded in a big way, leading AL catchers in wRC+, and the Twins have been shopping Vázquez, along with other veteran players. In previous seasons, Jeffers was known as a strong pitch-framer with positive run totals. His framing was worth -3 runs and ranked in the 25th percentile in 2023, though. The Twins also added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster after a strong season at Triple A. By 2027, he has an excellent chance to serve in a regular backup catching role. It will be interesting to see if Jeffers can continue to build off his solid offensive season and take on more of a full-time catching role. First Base: Edouard Julien (28) The Twins have an influx of young infielders at multiple positions, which will force the team to make several decisions about players' future defensive homes. Julien has been a second baseman for most of his professional career, and he made strides on the defensive side of the ball throughout his rookie turn in MLB. However, he will continue to be a below-average defender, so the Twins will start playing him more regularly at first. In last year’s projection, Alex Kirilloff appeared to be part of the team’s long-term plan at first base, but his injury history makes it harder to include him in the 2027 lineup. Second Base: Royce Lewis (28) Minnesota will have an interesting defensive decision with the following three names in this lineup. All three have played shortstop for the majority of their professional careers, but age and injury history will eventually force them to move around. Lewis will enter the 2024 season as the team’s primary third baseman, after shifting to that position last year. In 416 2/3 innings at third, Lewis was worth 2 DRS and 2 OAA. He has a strong enough arm and is very athletic, so that he can shift to another defensive position later in his career. Shortstop: Carlos Correa (32) Correa was a Gold Glove finalist in 2023, even while battling plantar fasciitis. His OAA ranked in the 62nd percentile, and his arm strength ranked in the 74th percentile. According to SDI, Correa was the AL’s ninth-best shortstop with a -2.7 SDI in 2023. Will a 32-year-old Correa continue to be a viable option at the infield's most demanding position? Minnesota will have other, younger options to take his place at shortstop, but there is no perfect fit if age pushes Correa to third base. He will want to stay at a premium position for as long as possible, but his days as a shortstop will be coming to an end by 2027. Third Base: Brooks Lee (26) Lee is considered Minnesota’s second-ranked prospect, after finishing last season at Triple A. All three national top-100 lists ranked him in their top 45 entering last season, and he projects to rank higher entering 2024. He posted an .808 OPS with 39 doubles and 16 home runs in 125 games last season. Mostly, he’s played shortstop so far in his professional career, but many expect him to move to third base as he adds to his frame. Lee is on pace to make his big-league debut in 2024, and the Twins hope he is part of the team’s long-term core. Left Field: Emmanuel Rodriguez (24) In many organizations, Rodríguez would be the top-ranked prospect, because of his ability to impact the game on both sides of the ball. The Twins added him to the 40-man roster this winter, which puts him one step closer to making his big-league debut. He spent all of 2023 at High A, where he hit .240/.400/.463 with 38 extra-base hits and 92 walks in 99 games. Rodríguez has one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in the organization. Center Field: Walker Jenkins (22) The Twins selected Jenkins with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, and he’s already considered one of baseball’s best prospects after a memorable pro debut. He hit .362/.417/.571, with 12 extra-base hits and six stolen bases in 26 games. There is some question about whether or not Jenkins can stick in center field, as he has slowed a bit while adding more muscle to his frame. Earlier this winter, I projected that Jenkins is on the fast track to the big leagues, with the potential to debut during the 2026 season. Right Field: Matt Wallner (29) Wallner is a prototypical right fielder, with a powerful left-handed swing and a cannon for an arm. Max Kepler has occupied right field for the Twins for seven years, but Wallner can take over right away if Kepler is traded this winter. The Forest Lake native showcased some strong offensive skills during his rookie season with a 139 OPS+, striking out 80 times in 76 games. Minnesota has depth in their corner outfield spots, so it will be interesting to see if the team includes Wallner or Rodríguez in a trade for starting pitching. Designated Hitter: Byron Buxton (33) The Twins are hopeful that Buxton’s most recent knee surgery puts him back on track to appear in the outfield. However, his lengthy injury history will make him a full-time DH in 2027. Last season, injuries limited him to DH duties, and he posted an OPS+ below 115 for the first time since 2018. Buxton is under contract through the 2028 season, so the Twins need to find a way for him to provide value to the club. Who do you think fits into the team’s 2027 lineup? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. PREVIOUS YEAR’S PREDICTIONS — 2024 Lineup — 2025 Lineup — 2026 Lineup View full article

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are teaming up in New York to form one of the best duos in baseball history. Can the Twins' top duo be considered among baseball’s best next season, too? Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports Last week, the Yankees acquired Juan Soto in a blockbuster trade that will have long-term ramifications across the baseball landscape--even though Soto is only making a short-term home in the Bronx. Soto is one of baseball’s best young hitters and a future Hall of Famer. He is an on-base machine, and it’s scary to think what he will be able to do with Aaron Judge batting behind him. If both players stay healthy, they should be baseball’s best lineup duo, but there are other contenders. MLB.com ranked the top 10 lineup duos for the 2024 season, and the Twins didn’t crack their list or their honorable mentions, which stretched the ranking to the top 12. Outside the Yankees duo, other top pairs include Los Angeles’s Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman (and now Shohei Ohtani); Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Matt Olson; and Houston’s Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Minnesota’s offense struggled through the first half of last season, but the team took positive strides in the season’s final months. So, who would be included in Minnesota’s best lineup duo, and how can they crack baseball’s top 10? Carlos Correa Correa is the most obvious pick to be included in the team’s top pairing. He’s coming off his worst statistical season, as his 94 OPS+ was 30 points below his career average. At the Winter Meetings, the Twins had positive reports about Correa’s progress with the plantar fasciitis that impacted him throughout the 2023 campaign. No surgery was required to address the injury, and Derek Falvey told reporters that Correa is “tracking really well” and “felt like he’s really turned a corner.” Rest and treatment can be sufficient to ameliorate this condition, and the Twins hope Correa returns to his previous form. He has been a dominant offensive player for multiple seasons in his career, with an OPS+ of 124 or higher in six of his nine seasons. In his first season with the Twins, Correa hit .291/.366/.467 with 24 doubles and 22 home runs. When fully healthy, he’s one of baseball’s best hitters. Bryon Buxton There were also positive reports at the Winter Meetings regarding Buxton and his recovery from offseason knee surgery. The star center fielder (?) is ready to start baseball activities, and is already further along than he was at the start of spring training last year. He has shown the ability to be an elite hitter in his career, but even those stretches have been marred by injury. In 2021, Buxton posted a 171 OPS+, including 19 home runs in 61 games. He started the 2022 All-Star Game in center field, after hitting 23 homers and posting an .834 OPS in the first half. There were multiple months during the 2022 season in which he had an OPS north of 1.000. Buxton has played fewer than 100 games in all but one season in his career, so it’s tough to include him in the team’s top tier. Royce Lewis Lewis returned from his second major knee surgery last season and was a spark plug for the Twins lineup. In 58 games, he hit .309/.372/.548, with seven doubles and 15 home runs. He set the team record with four grand slams in a single season, and he was the fastest player in MLB history to reach five career grand slams. It’s exciting to think of what he can mean to the middle of the team’s lineup, especially with the club’s struggles against left-handed pitching. Many evaluators doubted Lewis throughout his professional career, and now he will get a full season to continue to prove them wrong. Other Candidates A handful of other candidates could be included in the team’s top lineup double threat. Max Kepler posted a .926 OPS with 17 doubles, three triples, and 12 home runs in the second half. Minnesota is considering trading Kepler this winter, since he has just one remaining season of team control, so he probably doesn’t fit into this conversation. Edouard Julien was an on-base machine (.381 OBP) during his rookie campaign, adding 33 extra-base hits in 109 games to his healthy walk total. Does he have a chance to reach another offensive level? Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda were among the best hitting prospects to come through the Twins organization over the last decade. If they can stay healthy, both can be offensive threats. Many projection systems will pair Correa and Lewis as the Twins' top lineup duo for 2024. This pair probably won’t rank with the big names mentioned above, but they can stand among baseball’s top 10. The Twins must pass tandems like San Diego’s Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., New York’s Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, or Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Bo Bichette. Those pairs are potent, but the Twins’ dynamic duo can catch them. Who do you think will be Minnesota’s best two hitters next season? Can the Twins have a top-10-ranked duo? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Traditionally, teams have valued back-end starters who can consistently eat innings. As the league changes the way it deploys pitching staffs, though, that breed is dying. How has this trend impacted the Twins? Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports So far this winter, Minnesota fans have watched the St. Louis Cardinals collect former Twins starters at an incredible rate. Sonny Gray, last year’s runner-up for the AL Cy Young, is the one who garnered the most attention, but let’s look at the team’s other two additions. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn signed one-year deals for a combined $24 million, to slot into the back of St. Louis’s rotation. The Cardinals lacked starting pitching depth last season, and it has been the biggest part of their offseason blueprint. However, they might be collecting an endangered species of pitcher. Last week, Chad Jennings of The Athletic wrote about the innings eater, defining them as “a back-end starting pitcher who rarely dominates but regularly pitches deep into games.” He described how starters are encouraged to maximize their effort, which minimizes how often they can go through a lineup. He further defined an innings eater as a pitcher who throws at least 180 innings with an ERA+ of 100 or worse. Gibson and Lynn met these criteria last season, and many projections will point to them compiling similar numbers next season. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has a reputation for using a quick hook with his starting pitchers, but that wasn’t the case in 2023. Minnesota starters finished with the fourth-most innings pitched (895) and were only 6 2/3 innings from the top spot. Some of Baldelli’s reputation is tied to the type of starting pitchers who have been on his roster in recent seasons. The Twins front office hasn’t valued innings eaters highly, because they understand that starters typically perform worse when they face a lineup for a third time. Let’s examine recent Twins teams to see which players were closest to fitting the innings eater criteria outlined above. Last season, Joe Ryan was the closest thing to an innings-eating pitcher for the Twins. In 2023, he threw 161 2/3 innings with a 95 ERA+, but that doesn’t tell the whole story of his season. He was a borderline All-Star in the first half, with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9 IP. His second-half numbers suffered (6.09 ERA, 1.48 WHIP), as Ryan attempted to pitch through a groin injury. Minnesota has higher hopes for him in 2024, and there’s no reason to put him into the innings eater category. The 2022 Twins didn’t have a pitcher throw more than 147 innings. Dylan Bundy pitched the second-most innings on the team (140) behind Ryan, and had an 80 ERA+. Minnesota had to continue using him, because there weren’t any other options in the season’s second half. Bundy didn’t have any major-league offers last winter and signed a minor-league deal with the Mets in March. He’d only make six appearances for their Triple-A affiliate, and his professional career is probably over. Minnesota’s pitching staff was a mess during the 2021 season, with the front office signing J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker to fill what they hoped would be innings-eater roles. Instead, Shoemaker posted a 65 ERA+ in 60 1/3 innings, before being demoted to Triple-A. Happ pitched nearly 100 innings with a 63 ERA+ and was moved to St. Louis at the trade deadline. Only three Twins pitchers tossed over 100 innings (Jose Berríos, Michael Pineda, and Kenta Maeda), and none fit into the innings eater category. In 2020, the shortened season made it hard to evaluate which pitchers were used as innings eaters. The Twins had a pair of pitchers close to meeting the innings eater criteria during the 2019 season. Martín Pérez posted an 89 ERA+ in 165 1/3 innings, while the aforementioned Gibson threw 160 innings with a 94 ERA+ in his final season with the Twins. Innings eaters haven’t been a priority for this front office. They value pitchers making it through the early innings and turning the game over to the bullpen for the middle frames. Since Derek Falvey took over the front office (2017), there have only been six times when a starting pitcher threw more than 180 innings in one season, and none had an ERA+ below 100. (Obviously, though, the truncation of 2020 and the hangover effect on pitcher workloads league-wide in 2021 contributed to that.) The innings eater has been dead in Minnesota for quite some time. Will teams continue to value pitchers who soak up innings without being above-average? Can the Twins add someone to fit this role for 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The offseason is just starting, but the Twins have one of baseball’s best rosters heading into the winter. Here is how the 26-man roster would shake out if the season started today. Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports Every front office must take stock of their roster entering the offseason, to identify holes and decide on a team’s most pressing needs. The Twins saw an influx of young talent during the 2023 season, which helps in making long-term roster decisions. In previous years, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been very patient when making offseason moves, so there will be some fluidity with the names listed below in the coming months. So, which players would crack the team’s Opening Day roster if the season started today? Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers Minnesota loves using a two-catcher rotation during the regular season, so players are getting regular rest at baseball’s most demanding defensive position. Jeffers had a tremendous season at the plate, leading all catchers in wRC+. Behind the plate, he has been known for his framing, but he dropped from the 70th percentile in 2022 to the 25th percentile last season. At the Winter Meetings, Falvey mentioned Vázquez among four veterans the Twins are shopping this offseason. Vázquez struggled offensively last season with a 65 OPS+ but continued to rank well defensively. He finished the season ranked fourth in SDI and ranked in the 70th percentile or higher in Framing and Blocks Above Average. The Twins added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster earlier in the offseason, so he’d be the next man up if Vázquez were traded or one of the starters was injured. Infielders (6): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco This position group has depth at multiple positions and a strong combination of veterans and young pieces. The team reported that Correa is progressing well in his offseason routine, after having plantar fasciitis ruin his 2023 season. Kirilloff has yet to resume hitting following surgery in October to remove a bursa sac from his right shoulder, so he is the most significant question mark in this group. Farmer and Polanco are short-term pieces the team could trade this winter, with cheaper options available to take their place on the roster. Jose Miranda is another name fans should remember in the infield mix. His 2023 was an injury-marred disaster, but he is further along in his rehab than Kirilloff. Will the Twins use the two former top prospects in a platoon role at first base? Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner Minnesota’s outfield situation isn’t as straightforward, with injury question marks and Michael A. Taylor a free agent. Buxton is making strides after an offseason knee procedure, and the team sounds more optimistic about the possibility of him returning to center field next season. Like the other veterans mentioned above, Kepler is on the trade market with one year remaining of team control. He had a terrific second half, posting a .926 OPS with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs, and it might be time for the team to maximize his trade value. Castro and Gordon will probably see time in center field, and Wallner will get his first chance at a full-time role. The Twins will also rely on other outfielders on the 40-man roster, like Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin. Rotation (5): Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Louie Varland The Twins are in a better spot with their starting rotation at this point in the offseason than any other Twins team in recent memory. There were years in the Target Field era when it felt like the club had Jose Berrios and four rotational openings. Minnesota will be attempting to fill the holes left by the free-agent departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery last season and will take on a role similar to that of Maeda in 2023. Ryan and Ober made positive strides last season, but there remain areas where they can become more consistent. Varland is penciled into the fifth spot in the rotation, but the team is shopping for other options on the trade market, which would push him to St. Paul to start the year. Simeon Woods Richardson is also on the 40-man roster, but he struggled at Triple-A last season and was nearly five years younger than the competition at that level. He could be asked to make starts for the Twins next season and just turned 23 years old in September. Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Kody Funderburk, Jordan Balazovic, Jorge Alcala, Cole Sands Minnesota’s front office has tended not to spend money on bullpen options. Instead, they rely on internal options and minor-league pickups. Durán has been one of baseball’s best relievers since entering a late-inning role in 2022. The trio of Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar have shown the ability to fit into different setup roles, and they will have more responsibility in 2024. Funderburk had a tremendous debut and will be asked to be the bullpen’s second lefty, behind Thielbar. Alcalá has been pitching well in the winter leagues and can be an x-factor. Balazovic is out of options, so he must make the team or be passed through waivers. Sands and Josh Winder have one option remaining, so they will fight for one of the bullpens final spots. Matt Canterino is a dark horse option as he returns from Tommy John surgery. The Twins used 29 pitchers last season, so multiple relievers will make the trip back and forth between Minneapolis and St. Paul. How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? What will change with the 26-man roster before Opening Day? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Shohei Ohtani agreed to the largest contract in North American sports history on Saturday. With the biggest domino falling, how will MLB’s offseason play out, and how does that impact the Twins? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports After weeks of rumors and speculation, Shohei Ohtani took to his own Instagram account to announce that he would sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers 10 years and a record total of $700 million. With Ohtani off the board, other moves can start happening, especially for the teams who missed out on the two-way superstar. Here are some expected moves in the weeks ahead, and some discussion of how each will affect the Twins. 1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto Signs Yamamoto is a 25-year-old pitching phenom from Japan who will likely get the second-largest contract handed out this winter. As many as seven teams have shown interest in Yamamoto, and he’s expected to sign for over $200 million. His Japanese club posted him on Nov. 21, and there is a 45-day window for him to agree to terms with an MLB team. That window runs out on Jan. 4, but many teams like to take a business break around the holidays. Will Yamamoto be off the board before Christmas? Do the Dodgers push for him to join Ohtani, or will the New York teams win the bidding war? 2. Other Big Free Agents Come Off the Board Outside of Yamamoto, other high-priced free agents are expected to sign now that Ohtani has picked his team. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are the top remaining free-agent starters. Snell was the NL Cy Young winner after going 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA over his final 23 starts. Montgomery helped pitch Texas to a World Series title, and his postseason performance might have increased his value (2.90 ERA in six games). According to MLB Trade Rumors, Snell is projected to get seven years, $200 million, while Montgomery is predicted to get six years, $150 million. Snell rejected the qualifying offer from the Padres, so he has draft pick compensation tied to a team signing him. Montgomery was traded last season, so the Rangers couldn’t make him a qualifying offer. On the hitter side, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman are the highest-ranked free agents. Bellinger, the 2019 NL MVP, had a resurgent season in Chicago. He batted .307/.356/.525, with 29 doubles and 26 home runs in 130 games. Chapman is an elite defender at third base and posted a 108 OPS+ last season in Toronto. His offensive output has dipped over the last three seasons, but he should be able to cash in, with few other third-base options on the market. MLB Trade Rumors projected Bellinger to get 12 years and $264 million, with Chapman predicted to get six years, $150 million. Teams who missed out on Ohtani can open their checkbooks for any of these options. 3. Lower-Tier Free Agents Start to Sign Many big-market teams will be focused on the names listed above, and lower-tier free agents must wait for the more prominent names to sign to set the market. Some teams will also offer more money to lower-tier free agents as the supply dwindles. Last season, the Twins identified Christian Vázquez early in the offseason and offered him a third year, since he had multiple two-year proposals on the table. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn were lower-ranked starting pitcher options, but the Cardinals needed pitching and offered them a little more to sign early. Teams with specific needs will start looking at the free agent cost and weigh it against trading for a player. 4. Teams Turn to Trade Options At MLB’s Winter Meetings, Derek Falvey spoke about the Twins shopping four veteran players (Kyle Farmer, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Vázquez). He told reporters, “I think we’re still in that early feeling-out phase.” Multiple national writers have reported that there is interest in Minnesota’s trade pieces. Still, fans will need to be patient with the front office, since that has been their style in previous offseasons. "We're always trying to be opportunistic, think of where a trade matches, where there might be opportunities to invest in a way that will help us get better," Falvey said. "We've always kind of been a team that waits out some of the market, in some spaces, and waits to see how things shake out to some degree. The team isn't made at the end of the Winter Meetings, right? This has never been a key marker for me personally or for us in general." Falvey’s rosters are never finalized, with the front office always looking to improve. In 2022, the Twins waited until the eve of Opening Day to trade Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and Brayan Medina. Twins fans probably want to know how the roster will look for Opening Day, but this front office has continued to find ways to add pieces throughout the offseason. Ohtani signing is the first domino, and now MLB’s offseason can start moving for the rest of the baseball world. Who will be the next free agent to sign? Which veterans will the Twins trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

MLB’s Winter Meetings officially wrapped up on Wednesday, and there was plenty to discuss in Nashville. What’s next for the Twins, and what other news and notes came out of the Country Music Capital of the World? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Teams packed up in Nashville and headed home yesterday, but the rumor mill continues to swirl about the Twins and other teams across the baseball landscape. The Winter Meetings allow teams to set the groundwork for free-agent signings and potential trades, which will unfold quickly over the next two weeks. Minnesota tends to be patient when making their offseason moves, and they're sticking to that strategy so far this winter. Here are some trending storylines that will impact the Twins’ plans. Multiple Teams Interested in Michael A. Taylor Taylor had a career year with the Twins at age 32. He hit a career-high 21 home runs and posted his highest OPS+ (94) since 2017. Taylor’s defense continues to be among baseball’s best, with 5 Defensive Runs Saved and 8 Outs Above Average. The Red Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the Yankees earlier this week, opening a spot in the Boston outfield. Jon Morosi reported that the Red Sox, Reds, Blue Jays, and Mets are rumored to be interested in Taylor, which is intriguing, since some of these clubs are big-market teams with money to spend. Taylor seemed likely to sign a one-year contract, but a team might have to offer a two-year pact to beat out other interested teams. Notably absent from the list of teams engaged, at least in that report, are the Twins. Marlins Open to Trading Young Pitching Last winter, the Twins traded Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez, in a deal that worked well for both clubs. Miami continues to have a plethora of young starting pitching, and Jon Heyman reported that the Marlins are listening to trade talk on pitchers Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers. Do the Twins think they can help any of these pitchers take the next step, as they did with López last season? Luzardo is under team control through 2026 and posted a 3.58 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 in 2023. Garrett isn't even arbitration-eligible yet, and can’t become a free agent until after 2028. Over the last two seasons, he has posted a 3.63 ERA, with a 246-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 247 2/3 innings. Cabrera is on the same free-agent timeline as Garrett, but would likely come at a lower cost than the other two names. He struggled with control, including 6.0 BB/9 in just under 100 innings last season. Injuries derailed Rogers in 2023, but he should be ready for next spring. Shohei Ohtani Decisions Looming Many teams are waiting to make their key moves until Ohtani, arguably the biggest free agent in MLB history, picks his destination. Jon Morosi reported that Ohtani is expected to make his decision by the end of the weekend. Some teams still rumored to be courting Ohtani include the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, and Cubs. Following his signing, teams can focus on other free agents and trade options, which should help add some heat to the Hot Stove. Juan Soto Trade to Yankees is Official Juan Soto was the second-biggest name available this winter, but is still one year away from free agency. Wednesday night, the Yankees finalized a deal to land the extraordinary left-handed slugger and on-base machine. Two of New York’s top young pitchers, Michael King and Drew Thorpe, headline the haul for San Diego, with three others along for the ride and center fielder Trent Grisham also joining the Bronx Bombers. While You Were Sleeping... There were a couple of late-night moves that you may have missed. E-Rod Heading West Some Twins fans may have thought that left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez should be a target this offseason. He opted out of the remaining three years and $49 million on his contract with the Detroit Tigers, signed two years ago. According to reports, Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80-million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks that includes a vesting option for a fifth season and some incentives that could push the total value of the deal to about $100 million. Reds Sign Jeimer Candelario Long-time Tigers infielder Jeimer Candelario signed a three-year, $45-million contract with the Cincinnati Reds late on Wednesday night. After parts of six seasons in Motown, Candelario signed a one-year deal with the Nationals last year. He hit .258, with 30 doubles and 16 home runs in 99 games for Washington before he was dealt to the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline. He added nine doubles and six homers in 41 games on the North Side. Candelario will likely play both corner infield spots for the Reds. Spencer Steer, who had a tremendous rookie season in 2023, will find himself in left field most often. Christian Encarnacion-Strand will likely continue to get time at first base, but also do plenty of DHing. Do you think Taylor will get a multi-year deal? Can the Twins and Marlins agree on another trade for a starting pitcher? What team will sign Ohtani? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota is cutting back on payroll, making it even more critical for the team's star players to perform at a high level. Can they get Byron Buxton back on track to play center field in 2024? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Any positive news surrounding Byron Buxton’s health is a step in the right direction. This weekend, Derek Falvey told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that he's “fully recovered from the surgery” he had earlier in the offseason with “no lingering effects.” He went on to say Buxton “looked good” in workouts with the team’s medical staff at Target Field. “Rehabilitation is ongoing, and completing that is Buxton’s next step," the story said. "The Twins feel he should be cleared to do some baseball-related activities by the end of the year.” Buxton couldn’t be a full participant at spring training last season, because of lingering knee issues from the previous season. The Twins hope this latest surgery can alleviate enough pain for him to return to center field. Minnesota utilized a different plan for Buxton in 2023 by having him begin the year as a full-time DH, with the hope that he’d be able to ease back into the outfield mix. His knee was never healthy enough to play in center field for the Twins, as his only outfield innings came in a Triple-A rehab appearance. Buxton may never again play 500 innings in center field, but getting him back to a part-time defensive role is critical to next season’s roster. Last season, Buxton was limited to 85 games, even with the team implementing such an aggressive and costly plan to keep him healthy. In 347 plate appearances, he hit .207/.294/.438 (.731) with 17 doubles and 17 home runs. In previous seasons, Buxton was able to return from injury and produce at a high level at the plate. The 2023 campaign was the first time he posted an OPS+ below 115 in five seasons. Buxton has only played over 100 games in one season since becoming a regular in 2016. Center field is one of the most significant needs for the Twins this winter, because the team can’t count on Buxton to be regularly available for the outfield. Last winter, they traded for Michael A. Taylor to provide insurance for Buxton. Taylor provided the team with his highest OPS+ since 2017, while being one of the league’s best defensive center fielders. Minnesota could attempt to re-sign Taylor and put him into a similar role, or the team could pursue other free-agent options like Kevin Kiermaier or Harrison Bader. Falvey and GM Thad Levine could also turn to internal options to take over the position. Austin Martin has been ranked as one of the team’s top prospects since he was acquired as part of the Jose Berrios trade. Signed as a shortstop, Martin has diversified his defensive profile as he gets closer to the big-league level, including over 200 innings in the outfield last year. Martin missed time last season with an elbow injury, but played well after returning. In 59 Triple-A games, he hit .263/.387/.405 (.791) with 11 doubles, six home runs and 16 steals. The Twins can also use other internal options to patrol center, including Willi Castro and Nick Gordon, but none of these options replicate what Buxton means to the Twins. Minnesota is a better team with Byron Buxton in the lineup. For his career, the Twins have a .545 winning percentage with Buxton starting and a .459 winning percentage when he is out. Their production is more robust, and their batting order deeper, with their franchise player on the field. Unfortunately, the Twins have played more games (686) without Buxton than with him (670) since he made his debut. The AL Central is expected to be one of baseball’s worst divisions again in 2024, with the Twins currently the favorites to win it. Minnesota found a way to win the division last season without Buxton performing at a high level, so there is a way for the team to repeat without him. However, when he's healthy, he has proven to be one of the game’s best players on both sides of the ball. Questions about Buxton’s health will follow him for the remainder of his career. The goal is to get him back to center field on a more regular basis, and the Twins hope this latest surgery is the one to put him back on track. How many games will Buxton play in center field next season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Teams make questionable protection decisions every year leading into the Rule 5 Draft. Will the Twins regret leaving a Triple-A outfielder off their 40-man roster? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge The Twins selected DaShawn Keirsey in the fourth round of the 2018 MLB Draft, from the University of Utah. In three collegiate seasons, he hit .334/.391/.473 (.865) with 42 doubles, 11 triples, and eight home runs. He played center field in college and showed an ability to steal bases. This skill set was enough to catch the attention of Twins scouts, and they used a relatively high pick (and an above-slot bonus) on him. In his pro debut, Keirsey posted a .798 OPS in 26 games for the Elizabethton Twins. It was a solid start to his career, but his college experience helped him succeed in a league where he was older than the average age of the competition. In 2019, Keirsey was limited to 36 games due to injury and struggled to find consistency at the plate. Minnesota hoped he could bounce back in 2020, but the pandemic canceled the minor league season. His 2021 season was also limited to fewer than 50 games because of multiple injuries. Most of his time that season was spent at High-A, where the 24-year-old was old for the level. He hit .199/.297/.433 (.730) with 15 extra-base hits in 45 games. Keirsey wouldn’t appear on any top Twins prospect lists because he hadn’t been able to put together a healthy season and showcase his true potential. In 2022, Keirsey finally played over 100 games for the first time in his professional career. He hit .271/.329/.395 (.724) with 26 doubles, 3 triples, and 7 home runs. The Wind Surge coaching staff let him loose on the bases, as he stole 42 of them in 49 attempts. Keirsey was slightly older than the average age of the competition in the Texas League, but he showed that he could stay healthy and produce. The Twins sent Keirsey back to Double-A to begin the 2023 campaign because the Triple-A outfield had other options. In 91 games, he hit .305/.363/.488 (.850) with 17 doubles, 5 triples, and 13 home runs. He was promoted to Triple A at the beginning of August and posted a .739 OPS in the season’s final 39 games. On the bases, he went 39-for-44 in stolen base attempts, including a perfect 8-for-8 at Triple A. Keirsey stayed healthy again and played in a career-high 130 games. Minnesota has a clear need in center field for next season, so it was interesting that they didn’t add Keirsey to the 40-man roster. When he reached Triple A this season, it was the first time he was younger than the average age of the competition. He’s already 26 years old, and the Twins know him better than anyone. Perhaps the team doesn’t feel like he’s a viable option to play regularly in center field, and that’s why they were willing to leave him unprotected. If that skepticism is real, it's not unwarranted. Keirsey's already well into what would typically be a big-league player's prime, so we can't expect much more development from him. That's not the same as saying that such development is impossible, but it's unlikely, by definition. In his decent-sized sample of Triple-A playing time, his underlying data also betrayed some weaknesses that might confine him to a bench role. A lefty swinger, he whiffed on over 29 percent of swings against right-handed pitchers. The average whiff rate for lefty hitters facing righties in MLB in 2023 was 24.8 percent. His average exit velocity was under 88 miles per hour, and 47.5 percent of his batted balls were grounders. That's not a recipe for productivity at the plate, even accounting for his good plate discipline. A non-contending team can draft Keirsey without worrying about some of his flaws. He can play all three outfield spots, and he’s shown a strong ability to steal bases. His swing continued to improve in the upper minors, and another organization can stash him for a year as a fourth outfielder with some upside. Back in June, Seth called Keirsey the Twins' most underrated prospect, and it seems likely that a team might take a chance on his talent level in the Rule 5 Draft. Being a left-handed hitter helps widen his path to playing time elsewhere, but might have worked against him on the Twins' depth chart. Will the Twins regret losing Keirsey if he’s taken in the Rule 5 Draft? Should the Twins have protected him since they have four open spots on the 40-man roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article