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Every year, there is plenty to debate when it comes to baseball's highest honor. Who should (or shouldn’t) be elected to Cooperstown’s hallowed halls? Last year, Scott Rolen was the lone player elected by the BBWAA, with Todd Helton falling 11 votes shy of induction. This year’s ballot is full of question marks, and there is a chance for multiple players to be elected when results are announced in the coming days.
As a reminder, the National Baseball Hall of Fame specifies that “[o]nly active and honorary members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, who have been active baseball writers for at least ten (10) years, shall be eligible to vote.” In order to receive a vote, a writer must have been a member of the BBWAA for at least a decade. Voters can select up to 10 players per ballot, making it difficult if a voter feels there are more than that many worthy candidates up for election.
Below are my predictions for the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot, broken into three categories, including the Class of 2024, Future Inductees, and May Never Get In (But Still On My Ballot).
Class of 2024
Adrian Beltre (1st Ballot)
Beltré is a lock to be elected on his first ballot and has a chance (however remote) to be the second player elected unanimously, after Mariano Rivera. He is a five-time Gold Glove winner, and finished his career with 477 home runs and 3,166 hits. There were six seasons in which he finished in the top six for MVP voting, and he ranks second all-time in WAR runs above average from fielding, behind Brooks Robinson.
Jay Jaffe's Jaffe Average WAR Score (JAWS) is a way to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness. It averages their career WAR and their seven-year peak WAR. Beltré ranks fourth all-time among third basemen, and the top 11 are enshrined in Cooperstown.
Billy Wagner (2023 Results: 68.1%)
Relief pitchers are an underrepresented group in Cooperstown, with only eight Hall of Famers at the position. According to JAWS, the top five relievers have been elected, and Wagner ranks sixth. He collected 422 saves, while racking up 1,196 strikeouts with a 2.31 ERA. He was selected to seven All-Star Games and played on seven playoff teams. In the Live Ball Era, only Rivera has a lower ERA with a minimum of 705 innings pitched. Wagner is in his ninth year on the ballot, so he must be elected over the subsequent two voting cycles, or he'll fall off the ballot.
Todd Helton is also on track to be inducted this year, but I wouldn’t include him on my ballot because of his off-field issues. He has been arrested multiple times for DUI, where his blood alcohol level was dangerously high. Other voters will select him, though, and he will get his moment in Cooperstown later this summer.
Future Inductees
Carlos Beltran (2023 Results: 46.5%)
Beltrán wasn't elected on his first chance last winter, partially because of his ties to the 2017 Astros’ cheating scandal. He was a nine-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glove winner, and won the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 1999. In 20 seasons, he hit .279/.350/.486 with 435 home runs and 1,587 RBI. He’s among 38 players in AL/NL history to have more than 1,500 runs scored and runs batted in, and 29 of other 37 have been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. He is also one of five players with 500 doubles, 400 home runs, and 300 stolen bases. It will take time for the writers to forgive him for leading the sign-stealing scandal, but he will be inducted on a future ballot.
Joe Mauer (1st Ballot)
Twins Daily has had plenty of discussion regarding Mauer’s candidacy for the Hall of Fame. For his career, he hit .306/.388/.439 with a 124 OPS+, on his way to winning three batting titles and five Silver Sluggers. He was the first American League catcher to win a batting title and the only backstop since the great Josh Gibson to win three. Defensively, he won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2008-10 and was elected to six All-Star Games. His 2009 MVP season is arguably the best offensive season from a catcher in baseball history. Mauer finished the season hitting .365/.444/.587 with a 171 OPS+. He set a major-league record for highest batting average by a catcher and became the first repeat batting champion in nearly a decade. Mauer will likely finish short of induction in his first year on the ballot, before being inducted next season.
Chase Utley (1st Ballot)
Utley joins Mauer and Beltré in a solid class of first-ballot names to consider. Utley ranks 12th all-time among second basemen in JAWS, with nine of the 11 names ahead of him already inducted. He was a six-time All-Star, and helped the Phillies win the 2008 World Series. Utley provided value in all parts of the game, with a career 117 OPS+ and terrific defense at second base. He collected 154 stolen bases, and his 87.5% success rate is the best of all time in MLB, with a minimum of 100 swipes. Voters will support him, but it likely takes multiple appearances on the ballot to be elected.
Andruw Jones has slowly been gaining support on recent ballots, and he is on pace to finish with more than 60% of the vote in the current voting cycle. However, in 2012, he was arrested for a graphic domestic assault on his former wife. He will likely get in on a future vote, but I am not including him on my ballot.
May Never Get In (But Still On My Ballot)
Torii Hunter (2023 Results: 6.9%)
Hunter has survived on the ballot, despite receiving less than 7% percent of the vote in his first three voting cycles. (Any player who receives less than 5 percent of votes cast is removed from future ballots.) He won nine consecutive Gold Gloves from 2001-09, and was selected to five All-Star teams. He posted a career .793 OPS at the plate, earning two Silver Slugger Awards. He was an elite defender in the first half of his career who redeveloped himself into a strong hitter and fine corner outfielder later. Hunter holds a special place in the hearts of Twins fans, so he’d get my vote, even if he won’t be elected.
Gary Sheffield (2023 Results: 55%)
Sheffield is in his 10th and final year of eligibility. He hit 509 career home runs, including 30 homers in eight different seasons. He was a nine-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger, and a batting champion. He finished with an OPS+ of at least 130 in 14 different seasons. His support has been lacking in previous votes because his name appeared in the Mitchell report, and because he spent one winter working out with Barry Bonds. Also, his defense was atrocious. Still, few players of the era could match him for sheer offensive danger.
Final Ballot (in alphabetical order)
1. Carlos Beltrán
2. Adrian Beltré
3. Torii Hunter
4. Joe Mauer
5. Gary Sheffield
6. Billy Wagner
7. Chase Utley
To see the complete 2024 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, CLICK HERE. On Jan. 23, the BBWAA will announce the 2024 Hall of Fame balloting results. Any players chosen will be inducted during Hall of Fame Weekend from July 19-22, 2024.
Who makes your Hall of Fame ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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