Cody Christie

After a tremendous first half, Carlos Correa and Willi Castro represented the Twins in the Midsummer Classic. What players on the Twins are set to play at an All-Star level in the season’s most important games? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Last season, Max Kepler was one of baseball’s best hitters in the second half. He saw his wRC+ jump from 88 in the first half to 154 after the break. It was the biggest increase by any player, and the next closest player, Marcell Ozuna, was eight points behind Kepler. It would be great if Kepler could repeat his second-half performance, especially since he has millions of dollars on the line in a potential free-agent deal this winter. Who is prepared to play at an All-Star level for the Twins after not making the AL squad in the first half? Pablo López, SP The Twins need López to play at an All-Star level, especially for the stretch run. Last season, he was selected for the All-Star Game, even with some first-half hiccups. López overcame some issues and pitched like one of baseball’s best pitchers in the second half. In his final 13 starts, he posted a 2.79 ERA while holding batters to a .694 OPS in 77 1/3 innings. Also, he put the Twins in position to win both the starts he made in the postseason, showcasing what an ace can mean during the season’s most crucial games. Minnesota has survived in the first half because other pitchers like Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson have outplayed their projections. There might be some regression set to hit players who played over their heads in the first half, which makes López’s performance even more critical. It’s time for the team’s ace to play up to the performance he showed fans at the end of last season. Brooks Lee, IF Last season, Minnesota fans saw what a trio of rookies meant to the team’s second-half performance. Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, and Edouard Julien carried the team’s offense through some of the highest-pressure games. Lee is a different style of hitter compared to last year’s rookie triumvirate, which can help him succeed in the second half. He has the best hit tool among the group, has power to all fields, and continues to improve with his right-handed swing. Carlos Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis shortly before the break, which could mean the Twins will need Lee to take over at shortstop. Fans saw how Correa was impacted by this type of injury last season, so Lee provides a big-league-ready option to take over at one of baseball’s most important positions. That is a lot of pressure on a 23-year-old rookie with less than 50 plate appearances in the big leagues, but he might be the most polished prospect to come through the Twins system in quite some time. Matt Wallner, OF Wallner is sick of playing at Triple-A and will do everything possible to avoid a return trip to St. Paul. His start to the year couldn’t have gone much worse, with a 2-for-25 (.080 BA) and 17 strikeouts. It was such a small sample size, but it garnered plenty of attention since it happened directly at the season’s start. He went down to Triple-A and did what a slugger should do against lesser competition (he dominated). In 67 games, he combined for 35 extra-base hits, including 19 home runs. His OPS was 1.127 in June, and he won the International League Player of the Month. Since returning to the Twins, he has hit safely in six of his seven games with four extra-base hits and four games where he reached base multiple times. Power hitters like Wallner can have ebbs and flows to their performance because of their propensity for swing and miss. Wallner won't miss much in the second half as he settles back into a full-time role. Who will be the Twins’ second-half All-Stars? Leave your picks in the COMMENTS and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota’s front office has been aggressive at previous trade deadlines. Will they swing a blockbuster trade, including one of the players ranked below? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Prospect lists can only tell you so much about an organization’s future. Players at every level will impact the Twins in the coming years, and it’s critical to take stock of the entire organization entering the trade deadline period. Below is a ranking of players based on current and future value regarding potential trades, factoring in age, years of team control, contracts and performance. It doesn’t mean these players will be traded, but they have significant value as the trade deadline approaches. 5. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF 2024 Age: 21 Years of Team Control: 7 Rodriguez might be the most significant trade chip the Twins are willing to deal before the deadline. He has dominated at the plate during his professional career, but injuries continue to slow him down. He suffered a knee injury in 2022, an abdominal strain in 2023, and a thumb injury this season. When healthy, he has demolished the ball at Double-A with a 1.100 OPS and nearly as many walks (42) as strikeouts (46). Many evaluators believe he has the tools to stick in center field, but he has high trade value even if he is forced to move to a corner outfield spot. He would only be dealt for a player with the chance to make a major impact on the Twins' playoff push, who is also under control for at least another year. We're well over the rental waterline, by now. 4. Jhoan Durán, RP 2024 Age: 26 Years of Team Control: 4 Organizations value dominant late-inning relievers, especially around the trade deadline. Jhoan Durán has been one of the game’s best relievers since making his debut at the start of the 2022 campaign. It would be great if every elite reliever could have the longevity associated with Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman. Unfortunately, the lifespan of most elite relievers is limited to five seasons or fewer. Minnesota has also seen Durán’s velocity drop this season, making him more home run-prone. No pitcher can consistently throw 104 for multiple seasons, so Durán must find a way to be successful at his new velocity. The Twins might be worried about his long-term performance with his drop in velocity, giving him a chance of being traded. If it were to happen, though, it would surely be in the offseason, rather than now, as they scour the league for more relief depth and gear up for a pennant race. 3. Royce Lewis, 3B 2024 Age: 25 Years of Team Control: 5 Lewis has provided the Twins with elite offensive performance when he has been healthy. Alas: Injuries, including multiple knee surgeries, a hamstring strain, and a groin injury, have plagued his big-league career. At this point, the Twins must ensure Lewis is ready to go when the games matter the most in the second half. Last season, he hit four home runs in six playoff games to help the team win their first playoff series in two decades. Lewis has a chance to be a superstar, and the Twins have no reason to trade him. 2. Brooks Lee, SS 2024 Age: 23 Years of Team Control: 6 Lee is attractive as a potential trade candidate, because the Twins have already seen what he can do at the big-league level. In his first 11 games, he has gone 12-for-44 (.273 BA) with three extra-base hits and a 109 OPS+. Lee, a switch-hitter, revamped his swing from the right side over the winter and has already exceeded his extra-base hit total from last season as a righty. Minnesota saw multiple infielders deal with injuries shortly before the All-Star break, so they may need to keep Lee for depth. However, he could be included in a package deal for a superstar player that puts the Twins on the World Series map for multiple seasons. 1. Walker Jenkins, OF 2024 Age: 19 Years of Team Control: 10 Last year’s MLB Draft had five players who could have been the first overall pick. The Twins were lucky enough to move into the top five picks as part of the MLB Draft Lottery. Jenkins was the last of the big five prospects on the board, and Minnesota was happy to select him. He made a quick impression by hitting .362/.417/.571 with 12 extra-base hits during his professional debut (26 games). The Twins sent him back to Fort Myers, where he ended last season, but he injured himself running into the wall in the season’s first game. His bat has taken a bit to warm up this season, as he has a .760 OPS in his first 26 games for Fort Myers. However, he continues to control the strike zone with more walks (20) than strikeouts (15). Jenkins could garner a king's ransom if the Twins were willing to trade him, but it seems radically unlikely. Do you agree with the above rankings? Who is ranked too high? Who is too low? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota has a strong farm system, and this week’s MLB Draft added considerably more talent to the organization. Here’s how the team’s top 10 prospects rank for me, as the second half begins and the trade deadline approaches. Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Walker Jenkins) In each of the last two seasons, the Twins had a top-10 draft pick who immediately jumped into the conversation as the team’s top prospect. Two years ago, Brooks Lee was taken with the eighth overall pick, after he fell to the Twins amid some early-round surprises. Last season, Minnesota had the fifth overall pick, and used it to select Walker Jenkins. Both names continue to rank well on national lists and are featured on the list below. So, where does this year’s first-round pick fall among their top prospects? Twins Daily consistently updates the prospect rankings to reflect players rising and falling throughout the season. Create your own Twins Daily account to help vote for the team’s top prospects when the list is updated. 10. Zebby Matthews, SP 2024 Level: High-A, Double-A, (and now Triple-A!) The Twins took Matthews with their 8th-round pick in 2022, and he’s having a breakout season this year. In 14 appearances (78 innings), he has posted a 1.85 ERA, with a 0.76 WHIP and a 91-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. As his walk rate and that WHIP indicate, Matthews pounds the strike zone and has arguably the best command in the Twins’ system. 9. Charlee Soto, SP 2024 Level: Low-A Minnesota’s front office has tended to draft college pitchers, but Soto inspired them to break that mold. He was taken with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft and made his professional debut at Low-A this season. In 15 games, he has a 5.73 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP. However, he is over four years younger than the average age of the competition in the Florida State League, and his recent starts have pointed to better results. 8. Kaelen Culpepper, SS 2024 Level: TBD The Twins selected Culpepper with the 21st overall pick earlier this week. He moved from third base to shortstop for his junior season at Kansas State University, and there is hope that his athleticism will allow him to stick at the position. He hit .328/.419/.574, with 11 home runs, 35 walks and 41 strikeouts in 61 games this year. He has the potential to be a five-tool player, but the Twins will need to unlock some of his power potential after he signs. 7. Luke Keaschall, IF 2024 Level: High-A, Double-A After being one of the fastest-rising prospects in the system, Keaschall represented the Twins organization in MLB’s Futures Game over the weekend. The Twins drafted him in the second round in 2023, and he’s already reached Double-A. In 84 games, he is hitting .327/.438/.506, with 21 doubles and 11 home runs. Defensively, he is splitting time between second base and center field, which should help him reach the big leagues even quicker if he continues to hit at a high level. 6. Marco Raya, SP 2024 Level: Double-A Raya continues to be a challenging prospect to rank because of how cautious the Twins have been with his usage. At the end of June, I argued that it was time for Minnesota to change how they handled Raya. In 15 starts (50 innings), he has posted a 5.40 ERA, with a 1.52 WHIP and a 28.4 K%. He’s pitched into the fifth inning in two starts, with over half of his starts being shorter than four innings. Raya must build up his workload to be considered a starting pitching prospect. 5. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF 2024 Level: High-A González was a borderline top-100 prospect when the Twins acquired him as part of the deal for Jorge Polanco. He missed time this season due to injury, and has struggled to replicate the numbers he had in 2023. In 40 games, he has posted a .732 OPS, over 100 points lower than last season. As a 20-year-old, he is over two years younger than the average age of players in the Midwest League. There is still room for him to add more power, which might help him move up this list in future years. 4. David Festa, SP 2024 Level: Triple-A, MLB Twins fans got a first-hand view of Festa when he made his big-league debut earlier this season. He struggled in two games, but his performance improved during his time at Triple-A. In 15 starts, he has a 4.03 ERA, with a 1.36 WHIP and 34.9 K%. He wasn’t missing enough bats during the first call-up, but he did a good job limiting walks, which he struggled with in the minors. Festa has the ceiling to be a mid-rotation starter, which provides long-term value. 3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF 2024 Level: Double-A Rodriguez is one of the most exciting prospects in the Twins organization, but he has missed time over the last three seasons due to multiple injuries. He suffered a knee injury in 2022, an abdominal strain in 2023, and a thumb injury this season. When healthy, he has demolished the ball at Double-A, with a 1.100 OPS and nearly as many walks (42) as strikeouts (46). Rodriguez must find a way to avoid the injured list so he can continue developing in the upper minors. 2. Brooks Lee, SS 2024 Level: Triple-A, MLB Lee has already shown fans why the Twins were so excited that he fell to them with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. In his first 11 games as a big-leaguer, he has gone 12-for-44 (.273 BA), with three extra-base hits and a 109 OPS+. Lee, a switch-hitter, revamped his swing from the right side over the winter and has already exceeded his extra-base hit total from last season as a righty. Lee is clearly part of the team’s long-term plans, with his long-term defensive home still up in the air. 1. Walker Jenkins, OF 2024 Level: Low-A In Fort Myers’s season opener on Apr. 5, Jenkins suffered a hamstring injury, and he went on to miss nearly two months. In 26 games, he has hit .260/.385/.375 with five doubles and two home runs. Some fans may be disappointed by those totals, but the team is being cautious with him as he comes back from the IL. Last season, he posted a .988 OPS in 26 games during his pro debut. There is a long way to go before he will reach Target Field, but his first season in the organization has seen plenty of positives. Do you agree with Culpepper’s placement among the team’s top 10 prospects? Should someone else make the above rankings? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have a solid core of big-league players who are helping the team win during the 2024 campaign. Would the front office trade from an area of strength to help other parts of the roster before the trade deadline? Image courtesy of John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports Prospect lists can only tell you so much about an organization’s future. Players at every level will impact the Twins in the coming years, and it’s critical to take stock of the entire organization entering the trade deadline period. Below is a ranking of players based on current and future value when it comes to potential trades, factoring in age, years of team control, contracts, and performance. For the players who rank 11-20 in the organization, see Tuesday's piece. It doesn’t mean these players will be traded, but they have significant value as the trade deadline approaches. 10. Carlos Correa, SS 2024 Age: 29 Years of Team Control: 9 Correa is having one of the best seasons of his career, with a 151 OPS+. He was selected to the All-Star team for the first time for the Twins. He leads the team in both versions of WAR, and has showcased his skills on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis shortly before the All-Star break, and fans saw how it impacted his performance last season. He is playing like one of baseball’s best shortstops, which has tremendous value. His contract also has a no-trade clause, so he’s not being moved before the deadline, and arguably, that clause could slightly reduce the value Correa would command in any trade--but the structure of the back end of his deal is team-friendly enough to more than offset that ding. 9. Bailey Ober, SP 2024 Age: 28 Years of Team Control: 4 Ober averaged a 124 ERA+ over the last two seasons, as he established himself as a regular at the big-league level. He’s struggled through different parts of the 2024 season, with a 98 ERA+, making him essentially average. Since the beginning of June, he has posted a 3.14 ERA while holding opponents to a .661 OPS in seven starts. Ober has shown the ability to pitch like a playoff-caliber starter, and that’s what the Twins need him to prove in the season’s second half. Teams value controllable starting pitching, so Ober ranks highly on this list. 8. José Miranda, 1B/3B 2024 Age: 26 Years of Team Control: 5 Miranda might not have ranked anywhere in the team’s top 20 trade assets when the season began, because of how poorly he performed in 2023. Luckily for the Twins, Miranda’s struggles last season seem to have been tied to a shoulder injury. He’s been one of the team’s best hitters (148 OPS+) since being recalled earlier in the season, and had a case to be elected to the All-Star Game. Other players have seen their value drop since the season began, but Miranda has the highest-rising stock of any player in the organization. 7. Joe Ryan, SP 2024 Age: 28 Years of Team Control: 4 Ryan has been Minnesota’s most consistent starting pitcher during the 2024 season, and had a solid case to make the All-Star team. He ranks seventh among AL pitchers in fWAR, and only three AL pitchers have accumulated more strikeouts than Ryan this season. Ryan will be arbitration-eligible for the first time next season, so it’s a good time for him to be putting it all together. Last season, he struggled in the second half while fighting through a groin injury. Minnesota needs him to continue to pitch at a high level, especially with questions about other parts of the rotation. 6. Pablo López, SP 2024 Age: 28 Years of Team Control: 4 López has not pitched like an ace this season, which is disappointing, after he established himself as one of baseball’s best pitchers last season. He ended the year on a high note with solid pitching performances in the playoffs, and many believed he’d contend for the 2024 AL Cy Young. His 3.43 xERA is much closer to what fans expected him to have this season. López will see a pay raise next season as his extension kicks in, so the Twins need him to start pitching closer to the level he maintained throughout 2023. Do you agree with the above rankings? Who is ranked too high? Who is too low? Leave a comment to join the discussion, and come back tomorrow for the top five players in the organization, based on trade value. Twins Trade Value Series: Nos. 11-20 View full article

Minnesota had a terrific first half, and has a chance to win the AL Central for the second consecutive season. Unfortunately, not every player has lived up to expectations. Who have been the biggest disappointments? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Baseball is a complex game, and players can see fluctuations in their performance throughout a grueling 162-game season. Some players exceed expectations for an entire season, but others have up-and-down performances, and still others fail to put it all together at any point. These four Twins players have struggled for different parts of the first half, but there is reason for second-half optimism in at least some cases. 4. Christian Vázquez, C Vázquez struggled mightily at the plate through much of the first half, with a 44 OPS+ and a 21.9 K% compared to a 2.6 BB%. His offensive performance is below replacement level, but he provides other intangibles. He works well with the pitching staff, and still ranks as one of the AL’s top defensive catchers. Minnesota owes Vázquez another $10 million for next season, so moving on from him is challenging. The Twins love to use a catching rotation, and Vázquez may have shown some positive signs in recent weeks. Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Since Jun. 1, Vázquez has hit .243/.270/.443, with five doubles and three home runs in 22 games. He has 13 strikeouts in 76 plate appearances during that stretch. Offensive performance is declining across baseball, so those numbers are good enough for a catcher. If he doesn't fall back into his May crater, he's perfectly cromulent. 3. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF Kirilloff has dealt with multiple injuries in recent seasons, but he entered the 2024 campaign relatively healthy. The Twins had added Carlos Santana at first base, so Kirilloff was likely to see more time in the outfield. Offensively, he struggled to find the swing that had made him one of the organization’s top prospects. In 57 games, he hit .201/.270/.384, with an 83 OPS+ and a career-worst 26.4 K%. It was bad enough that the Twins attempted to demote him to Triple-A, before he revealed a back injury had been bothering him. It was a frustrating situation for the organization and player, especially since hiding injuries can hurt the team’s chances of winning. Reason for Second-Half Optimism: It’s unclear when Kirilloff will be able to return from his back issue. Even when healthy, the Twins will likely want him to spend time at Triple-A to rediscover his swing. Kirilloff is running out of chances for the Twins, as other players pass him on the team’s organizational depth chart. 2. Edouard Julien, 2B Julien had a terrific rookie season, posting a 130 OPS+ while dramatically improving his second-base defense. Minnesota hoped he could build off that campaign and step into the full-time second base role this season. His bat struggled to start the year, though, as he hit .207/.309/.367 with a 91 OPS+ and a 34.0 K%. The Twins had other infield options, and demoted him to St. Paul at the beginning of June. He’s always been a unique player type, but the Twins hoped he’d be able to avoid a sophomore slump and prove he was a big-league regular during the 2024 season. Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Julien has a .457 OBP and a .418 SLG over his last 22 Triple-A games. Since the start of July, he has a .965 OPS, including three home runs in 11 games. He’s still part of the team’s long-term plans, and might be needed in the second half if injuries continue to impact the roster for the parent club. 1. Pablo López, SP One year ago, López was heading to his first All-Star Game on the heels of a first half wherein he was one of the game’s best pitchers. After a strong finish to the season and a memorable October, many national evaluators viewed López as a 2024 AL Cy Young contender. He has failed to meet those expectations, as he hit the break with a 5.11 ERA, leading the AL in earned runs allowed. Despite his struggles, the Twins have remained in contention. To finish the job and repeat as division champions, though, they need López (who has failed to pitch more than five innings in 10 starts and allowed four earned runs or more in seven of those appearances) to recover his form. He’s supposed to be the team’s ace, but he’s been outpitched by multiple starting rotation members--and not because they've been unforeseeably brilliant. Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Fans have heard this for most of the season, but López’s peripheral numbers point to him having a better performance than his results indicate. His 3.43 xERA is 1.68 points lower than his actual ERA. His Chase%, K%, and BB% rank in the 80th percentile or higher. Signs point to a turnaround, but he has not put it all together. Who should rank at the top of the list? What other player should make the top four? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

MLB’s trade deadline is just two weeks away. Who are the most valuable trade pieces in the Twins organization? Will any be traded before the deadline? Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Prospect lists can only tell you so much about an organization’s future. Players at every level will impact the Twins in the coming years, and it’s critical to take stock of the entire organization entering the trade deadline period. Below is a ranking of players based on current and future value when it comes to potential trades, factoring in age, years of team control, contracts and (of course) talent. It doesn’t mean these players will be traded, but they have significant value as the deadline approaches. 20. Austin Martin, UTL 2024 Age: 25 Years of Team Control: 6 Martin has shown versatility this season and provides a unique skill set at the big-league level. The Twins hoped he would develop more power, but he can use on-base skills and speed to be an above-average regular. Minnesota has team control over him for the prime of his career, which has solid value in and of itself. 19. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF 2024 Age: 20 Years of Team Control: 10 Gonzalez was a borderline top-100 prospect when the Twins acquired him this winter, as part of the Jorge Polanco trade. He missed nearly two months with a back problem (muscular, not disc-related). In his first 40 games, he has posted a .732 OPS while facing older pitchers in nearly 82% of his plate appearances. 18. Luke Keaschall, IF 2024 Age: 21 Years of Team Control: 11 Keaschall has been the fastest-rising prospect in the Twins organization in 2024. He was a second-round pick last season, and he’s shown off his five-tool skills between High- and Double-A. In 84 games, he combined for a .945 OPS and went 19-for-24 in stolen base chances. Keaschall is the type of player whom other teams target at the trade deadline. 17. Louie Varland, SP 2024 Age: 26 Years of Team Control: 6 Varland struggled in the Twins’ rotation this year (6.58 ERA in 6 appearances), forcing the team to go in a different direction. He’s had some up-and-down moments at Triple-A, but the Twins kept him in a starting role. Varland has future value, because he is under team control and can be shifted to a relief role if he fails as a starter. 16. Marco Raya 2024 Age: 21 Years of Team Control: 9 Raya has been an intriguing prospect since the Twins drafted him in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft. Minnesota has been cautious with his workload, after he dealt with injuries during his first professional season. He has some of the best stuff in the Twins organization, and many national outlets continue to rank him as a borderline top-100 prospect. 15. Edouard Julien, 2B 2024 Age: 25 Years of Team Control: 6 Julien would have ranked much higher on this list to begin the year, but the Twins believe he can turn it around. In 2023, he posted a 130 OPS+ as part of a rookie trio that spurred the Twins’ offense. Julien struggled with a 91 OPS+ in 58 games to begin this season before being demoted. The Twins will need him in the second half as injuries impact the team. 14. Simeon Woods Richardson 2024 Age: 23 Years of Team Control: 6 Woods Richardson has saved the Twins' rotation this season, after Varland struggled to start the year. In 16 starts, he has posted a 3.51 ERA, with a 1.15 WHIP and a 20.9 K%. Minnesota has gone 12-4 in games he has pitched, so he’s doing enough to help the team win. He's young and cheap, which has plenty of value even if he becomes a victim of regression. 13. David Festa, SP 2024 Age: 24 Years of Team Control: 6 Many consider Festa the Twins’ top pitching prospect, because he has plenty of upside and is essentially big-league-ready. His first starts with the Twins didn’t go perfectly, but he still has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter. Festa needs to throw more strikes at Triple-A, and can join the back end of the team’s rotation whenever a need next arises. 12. Matt Wallner, OF 2024 Age: 26 Years of Team Control: 6 Wallner’s year got off to a disastrous start, with 25 terrible at-bats wherein he struck out 17 times and only managed two hits. Minnesota sent him to Triple-A, and he was a man on a mission. The International League named him June’s Hitter of the Month after he slashed .324/.403/.724, with 12 home runs and six doubles. He's hit safely in six of his first seven games since rejoining the Twins, with four extra-base hits. 11. Ryan Jeffers, C 2024 Age: 27 Years of Team Control: 3 Jeffers started the year as one of the AL’s best hitters, with an .892 OPS, 14 doubles and 12 home runs through the end of May. In June, he cratered, with a .470 OPS, managing only nine hits in 56 at-bats. Jeffers has hit better in July, though, and young catchers with team control will always be valuable. Do you agree with the above rankings? Who is ranked too high? Who is too low? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins head into the All-Star break firmly in playoff position. To get to this point, there have been some surprise performances up and down the lineup. Will these surprises continue into the second half, or is the regression monster warming in the baseball gods' bullpen? Image courtesy of Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports The Twins entered the season projected to win 85 or more games, and to repeat as champions of the AL Central. Cleveland has been one of baseball’s biggest surprises. Few believed they would be near the top of the AL at the All-Star break, but there they stand. Minnesota has played well in recent weeks, and many of the surprises below are part of why the team has a solid chance to make the playoffs. Can these surprises continue into the second half? The answers aren’t straightforward. José Miranda, 3B/1B 2.6 rWAR, 148 OPS+ Miranda struggled through a shoulder injury last season, and the Twins didn’t have complete confidence in him entering the 2024 campaign. He began the year at Triple-A, because Minnesota had other options ahead of him on the organizational depth chart. He’s reestablished himself, though, with Baseball Reference ranking him second in WAR behind Carlos Correa. When healthy, Miranda has been one of the organization’s best hitters, and he’s proving his doubters wrong, with a first half that should have earned him consideration for the All-Star team. Byron Buxton, CF 2.5 rWAR, 131 OPS+ Last season, there were questions about whether or not Buxton would be able to play center field regularly. Not only has he returned to center field, but he's playing at an elite level on both sides of the ball. Aaron Judge and Jarren Duran are the only AL center fielders with more fWAR than Buxton, and Buxton ranks second to Judge according to wRC+. Defensively, he ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in OAA, Fielding Run Value, Arm Value, and Arm Strength. Even more encouraging is his sprint speed, which is in the 97th percentile. Buxton is on pace to play over 100 games for only the second time in his career, and the Twins are better when Buxton is at his best. Simeon Woods Richardson, SP 1.6 rWAR, 116 ERA+ Woods Richardson had much to prove in 2024, after a disastrous 2023 season that saw opponents hit him around at Triple-A with diminished velocity. He revamped his mechanics this winter, and the results speak for themselves. His velocity on his fastball increased from 90.5 to 93.1 MPH, and his other pitches have seen improvements, too. In 16 starts, he's posted a 116 ERA+ with a 20.9 K% and a 7.1 BB%. More importantly, he has put the Twins in position to win, with the Twins going 12-4 in games he started. SWR may be due for some regression in the second half, but he has helped stabilize the back end of the rotation. Jorge Alcalá, RP 1.4 rWAR, 261 ERA+ In recent seasons, Alcalá has been impacted by injuries, but the 2024 season might be his coming-out party. His Hard-Hit% is in the 100th percentile, as batters struggle to make solid contact against him. He also ranks in the 88th percentile in average exit velocity, Whiff%, xBA, and xERA. In 30 appearances, Alcalá has a 1.57 ERA, with a 0.96 WHIP and a 24.1 K%. He’s tied with Griffin Jax for the highest rWAR among the team’s relievers. Alcalá has emerged as one of the Twins’ most reliable relief options, and that must continue in the second half for the team to chase down the Guardians. Josh Staumont, RP 0.7 rWAR, 475 ERA+ Minnesota’s front office hoped Staumont would rediscover his dominant late-inning stuff after two injury-wrecked seasons. It has taken some time, but he might be rounding back into his former self. He didn’t allow any earned runs in his first 19 appearances and left the first half with a 0.87 ERA. His fastball velocity has increased throughout the season, including hitting 101 earlier this month. Staumont may never be the pitcher he was with the Royals. However, this year, he has been better than expected in a middle-inning relief role. Do you agree with the five players listed above? What other players should have made the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

As the trade deadline approaches, the Twins front office is in a difficult situation. Attendance is down at Target Field, and ownership has limited payroll entering the season. So, how will the club make meaningful moves? Image courtesy of Melissa Berman, Twins Daily The 2024 MLB trade deadline is just over two weeks away, and front offices will be fielding calls on players throughout the organization. The Twins enter the All-Star break with more than an 80% chance of making the playoffs, and are still within striking distance of Cleveland for the AL Central title. If the front office wants to add players, there are multiple factors to consider, including current and future payroll limitations. So, how will the trade deadline be impacted by Target Field attendance and the Pohlad family’s decision to reduce payroll? Payroll Limitations in 2024 and Beyond The Twins’ front office has shown a tendency to target players with more than one year of team control. Unfortunately, Joe Pohlad and the ownership group decided to cut payroll by $30 million this offseason. This cut prevented the team from making significant offseason acquisitions, and even forced the club to trade long-time infielder Jorge Polanco to make payroll space. Minnesota has found ways to continue to win in 2024 despite the payroll drop, but the future is even murkier. Next season, the Twins see some of their best players get a bump in pay. Pablo López is making $8.25 million this season, but is scheduled to receive a raise to $21.75 million in 2025. Carlos Correa gets a slight pay hike, an increase of $4 million, because of how his contract's total value was divided among its six seasons. There will also be multiple arbitration-eligible players who see a significant salary jump, including regulars like Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers. Minnesota’s front office must consider these projected salary increases when trading for players. Less Clarity on the TV Situation For 2024, the Twins re-signed with Diamond Sports Group, the parent company for Bally Sports North. In 2023, Dave St. Peter said that the Twins made around $60 million in their television deal. Minnesota won’t announce how much the team is making in the current deal, but it is believed to be between $35-45 million. Even with this influx, the team failed to make any additional moves this winter to add payroll. St. Peter is hopeful that games will be back on TV “soon,” with Comcast and Diamond Sports feuding since May 1. "Yeah, there's all kinds of urgency. Certainly, the baseball team, which we're not a part of that negotiation, are urging all sides to come together and to get a deal done," St. Peter explains. "I do know there's some ongoing conversations, and I think that's good. I'm hopeful that you're gonna see Twins baseball back on Comcast soon." Lower-Than-Anticipated Attendance During the winter, the Twins talked openly about expecting an increase in attendance for the 2024 season. Minnesota had seen a rise in attendance over the last two seasons, from 1.8 million in 2022 to 1.97 million last season. St. Peter talked at TwinsFest about anticipating home attendance exceeding 2 million for the first time since 2019. The team was coming off a division title and their first playoff series victory in two decades, so would only make sense for fan morale to be high. Unfortunately, the team’s projections didn’t consider other factors, like the slashed payroll and television issues. Attendance is down by nearly 1,200 fans per game, compared to the same per-game figures through this point last season. They're averaging fewer than 22,000 fans per game so far, which makes it nearly impossible for the Twins to draw over 2 million fans on the season. They're 23rd in overall attendance and 21st in year-over-year attendance change. Lower television viewership leads to lower attendance by reducing fan engagement and enthusiasm, which will have payroll implications beyond the current season. Minnesota is on pace to win more than 90 games and qualify for the playoffs for the second straight season, but ownership’s choices are starting to have long-term effects. Trade Deadline Outlook Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shown the ability to be aggressive at the trade deadline when they believe there are clear roster needs. The Twins have needs this season, but the front office is in a tough payroll spot for 2024 and beyond. Minnesota stood pat at last year’s deadline, and they will likely do something similar this year, because of everything outlined above. How will these issues impact the trade deadline? Will attendance improve at Target Field in the second half? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

MLB’s Futures Game allows for baseball’s top prospects to garner attention on the national stage. Who are the Twins sending, and why has he been one of the team’s fastest-rising prospects? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge The 2024 MLB Futures Game will be held on Saturday, July 13, at 3 PM CT and will be available to watch on MLB Network, MLB.TV, MLB.com, or the MLB app. It’s the 25th annual event, which has featured some of the best prospects in Twins history. Brooks Lee was scheduled to be the Twins representative, but his call-up to the big leagues forced a change. Instead, the Twins are sending another infield prospect whose stock is skyrocketing. Luke Keaschall shares many similarities with former Red Sox infielder Dustin Pedroia, a player he hopes to emulate professionally. Both players attended Arizona State University, played multiple infield positions, and can be seen as more diminutive in stature. Keaschall started his college career at the University of San Francisco before joining ASU for his junior season. He put himself on many team’s draft radars by hitting .353/.443/.725 (1.168) with 25 doubles and 18 home runs in 55 games. Based on this performance, Minnesota was excited that he fell to the organization in last season’s draft. The Twins selected Keaschall with the 49th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Minnesota quickly signed him for $1.5 million and sent him to the FCL to get his first taste of pro ball before heading to a full-season league. Most of his at-bats came with Low-A Fort Myers, where he went 21-for-72 (.292 BA) with ten extra-base hits and a 20-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota bumped him to Cedar Rapids for the stretch run since they were in the hunt for the Midwest League playoffs. He hit 10-for-32 (.313 BA) in eight games, with two doubles and two home runs. In the deciding game, he reached base twice, drove in a run, and scored a run. It was a strong debut for him to build on for the 2024 season. “I work my tail off in the weight room,” Keaschall said. “At the end of the day, I'm still growing, I'm still maturing, I'm still getting bigger and stronger and better at the game and refining my swing and mechanics. I think just over time, becoming a better baseball player, maturing a little bit more.” Minnesota had Keaschall begin this season in Cedar Rapids, since he had limited at-bats at that level to end last season. He was a monster in the Kernels lineup, hitting .335/.457/.544 (1.001) with 12 doubles and seven home runs in 44 games. At the end of May, the Twins promoted him to Double-A, where he was nearly 3.5 years younger than the average age of the competition at that level. In his first 38 games, he is hitting over .300 while getting on base over 40% of the time. His surface numbers don’t tell the whole story about what he brings to the team. He worked on his swing during the winter to have a better line-drive approach by hunting for pitches in the zone that he can drive for power. His professional approach has allowed him to accumulate nearly as many walks (51) as strikeouts (66). Among minor league players with at least 300 plate appearances, his wRC+ ranked in the top five. He’s also been a threat on the bases by going 19-for-23 in stolen base attempts. Defensively, Keaschall was drafted as a second baseman, but the Twins are giving him opportunities to play in the outfield and even some first base. During the 2024 season, he made 20 starts at second base and 16 at center field. Last winter, he went to Driveline to have them help him work on his arm action, which has helped him transition to a more regular outfield role. Even with his college experience, Keaschall has been promoted aggressively by the Twins while continuing to perform well. He’s only had 18 plate appearances against younger pitchers and is the first player from the team’s 2023 draft class to be promoted to Double-A. The Twins may have found a steal in the second round, especially if Keaschall can continue to follow in Pedroia’s footsteps. What stands out most about Keaschall’s start to his career? Where does he rank among the team’s top prospects? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Willi Castro’s path from minor league signee to this point has been full of obstacles. On Thursday, he found out that he was a first-time All-Star. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Willi Castro had multiple minor league offers entering the 2023 season, but the Twins made it known that they wanted him in their organization. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli personally called Castro to express the team’s interest in Castro and what he could mean to the organization. Castro liked what he heard from the manager and was familiar with the Twins from his time in Detroit. He signed with Minnesota, and the rest is history. On Thursday, Major League Baseball announced that Castro would replace Jose Altuve on the AL All-Star roster. He will serve as the backup second baseman behind Marcus Semien. His defensive utility will likely come into play for the AL squad, as managers typically try to get every player in the game. Castro can be moved around the diamond as new players enter the game. He joins Carlos Correa as the 2024 Twins All-Star representatives. Earlier this month, I named Castro as the team’s first-half MVP. He has stood out above the crowd on a team with multiple former All-Stars and multi-million dollar players. Baseball Reference and FanGraphs rank him second on the team in WAR, behind Correa. His value has multiple layers because of his defensive flexibility. He joined a small club of players who have amassed 20 or more games in left field, center field, third base, and shortstop in the same season. His 121 OPS+ is 15 points higher than last season, and he’s already compiled a career-high in WAR. Castro has impacted the Twins in every facet of the game. “He’s the real MVP of this team,” Correa told reporters last month. “He plays everywhere. If somebody gets hurt, he replaces them with no problem. If you ask him to play second, he plays great defense at second base. If you ask him to play shortstop, left, center, it doesn’t matter. He plays everywhere. When you have a guy like that, he makes you so much better as a team. I think we should appreciate him way more than we do already. He’s a real great player.” Castro began his professional career in the Guardians organization before trading him to the Tigers while in the low minors. Detroit initially rushed him to the big leagues as a 22-year-old, causing him to struggle. In parts of four seasons, he hit .245/.292/.381 (.673) with an 87 OPS+. Based on this performance, the Tigers dropped him from their 40-man roster, making him a free agent. Last season, Castro wasn’t guaranteed to make the Opening Day roster since the Twins had multiple players ahead of him on the organizational depth chart. However, injuries to other vital players opened a spot on the roster, and his spring performance was hard to ignore. Tom Froemming named him the 2023 Sire of Fort Myers, and the Twins quickly realized how valuable Castro was to the club. His versatility has been crucial to everything the Twins do on both sides of the ball. Since the start of last season, Correa is the only Twins player with more fWAR than Castro. His defensive utility has seen him be a replacement on the field for the team’s biggest names, including Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Correa. He also allows Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to have more flexibility when creating his lineups because he can worry less about defensive positions when Castro can play so many different spots. Castro is relatively unknown on the national stage, but now he will have the opportunity to showcase his versatility while being recognized among the game’s best players. When the Twins signed him, it was hard to imagine Castro reaching this level of performance. Now, he can call himself an All-Star for the rest of his life. Congrats to Castro and his family! View full article

If the Twins want to add a starting pitcher, that player must pass the Bailey Ober threshold. What does that mean? I’m glad you asked. Image courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports Last season, the Twins saw what it takes to win in October. Strong starting pitching, a powerful lineup, and a shutdown bullpen are all keys. As the front office plans for the trade deadline, multiple factors must be considered for the team to make choices for the present and future of the organization. One aspect to consider is adding a playoff-caliber starting pitcher, and that acquisition must meet the Bailey Ober threshold. If the playoffs started today, the Twins would be one of the AL’s Wild Card teams, able to line up their top three starting pitchers. Currently, those three starters would be Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. There is a lot of baseball left to decide the exact order of those pitchers and questions about how their performance will hold up for the stretch run. So, the front office must acquire a pitcher better than Ober to clearly upgrade the team’s playoff rotation. For the Twins to be successful in the playoffs, Ryan must continue to pitch well in the second half, and López needs to rediscover the performance that made him a near-Cy Young last season. Ober is the player sitting in the team’s third rotation spot, and he’s delivered an up-and-down performance this season. In his first 13 starts, he posted a 5.13 ERA, as he allowed 11 home runs in 66 2/3 innings. His last five appearances have restored the Ober fans saw last season. In 33 1/3 innings, he has allowed eight earned runs on 23 hits, with a 41-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Ober’s true talent lies somewhere between his poor start to the season and his recent hot stretch, but that’s the threshold for acquiring a starting pitcher before the deadline. Minnesota also has other playoff pitching options behind Ober, but trusting those arms is challenging. Simeon Woods Richardson has been great during his rookie campaign, with a 3.48 ERA, a 3.87 FIP, and a 1.11 WHIP. However, his 20.1 K% exposes him to some degree of variance and makes him more vulnerable to the high-powered offenses you tend to find in October. Another option is Chris Paddack, but he has been streaky in his first full season since his second Tommy John surgery. He is likely on an innings limit, and might be headed for a late-season bullpen role, similar to the one he assumed during last season’s playoff run. Many selling teams have starting pitchers who clear the Ober Threshold. Some of the top potentially available names are: Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Kevin Gausman, Nathan Eovaldi, and Zach Eflin. Crochet and Skubal are under team control through 2026 and pitch within the division, so the Twins might not want to give up the requisite prospect package to a rival. Gausman has the same amount of control left, via his contract, but it comes at $23 million per season, and there is no guarantee the Twins have that type of payroll flexibility. Eovaldi has dealt with injuries in the past, but has plenty of playoff experience with the Rangers and Red Sox. Eflin finished in the top 6 for the AL Cy Young last season and is due to be paid $18 million next season, which might put him out of Tampa’s payroll plan, so maybe he makes the most sense in this group. There could be others to consider, too. Last season, the Twins stood pat at the trade deadline and relied on internal options to bolster the roster for the stretch run. Minnesota’s front office has been aggressive in the past, adding players like Tyler Mahle and Jorge López, but those trades didn’t work out in the team’s favor. With the team’s payroll limitations, it will be tough for a club to acquire a starter that meets the Ober Threshold. Will the front office have room to add a playoff-caliber starter? Can the Twins win with their top three starters? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota has been playing well in recent weeks, and more reinforcements may be coming. When are some of the team’s critical pieces expected to return from the IL? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Last season, the Twins were quiet at the trade deadline, for numerous reasons. One of the biggest was the corps of impact players scheduled to return from the injured list down the stretch. This strategy worked last season, and the front office could follow a similar plan this year. Here is a quick rundown of Twins players on the injured list, and their expected timelines (loose estimates, of course) to return in the second half. UTL Austin Martin Injury: Oblique Strain Martin has fit into a unique role with the Twins this season because of his versatility. He can play multiple defensive positions, and has hit .265/.331/.372, with 10 extra-base hits and a 100 OPS+ in 47 games. He’s gone 6-for-8 in stolen base opportunities and made 14 or more starts in both left and center field. His inexperience in the outfield has been evident, as there have been some defensive miscues. Martin might not have a job waiting for him at the big-league level when he returns, if Matt Wallner continues to hit well in his absence, but virtually any further injury throughout the roster would clear a lane for him. Expected Return: Late July 3B Royce Lewis Injury: Right adductor strain Lewis has been snakebitten by injuries throughout his professional career, and has suffered significant or even major injuries in three consecutive seasons. However, there is no question about how he impacts the lineup when he is healthy. Lewis went on a home run binge to start his 2024 season, but that was also after he injured his hamstring on Opening Day. Last season, the Twins saw what Lewis could mean to the team in October, as he hit four home runs in six playoff games. Minnesota needs Lewis healthy for the playoffs, because he is arguably the team’s best hitter. For that very reason, they might be more cautious in returning him to action than they would be with a less habitually injured, less important member of the team. Expected Return: Mid- to late August 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff Injury: Back issues The Twins attempted to demote Kirilloff to Triple-A last month, but he then revealed that he was dealing with worsening soreness in his back. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli expressed concerns that Kirilloff had not fully communicated the extent of his injury, a critique with which the player himself agreed. Even if he does return, he is likely headed to St. Paul to prove his bat can return to form. Expected Return: TBD RHP Brock Stewart Injury: Right shoulder tendinitis Stewart has been on the IL since the beginning of May, after being one of the team’s best relievers to start the year--and during his intermittent availability last year. He pitched a live batting practice session over the weekend, and will begin a rehab assignment with the Saints this week. If everything goes well, Stewart should be in line to rejoin the bullpen shortly after the All-Star break. His addition to the high-leverage unit will be welcome, for a team that has seen some shaky late-inning moments throughout the season. Expected Return: End of July RHP Justin Topa Injury: Left patellar tendinitis Topa attempted an initial rehab assignment in May, but soreness flared up. An MRI revealed that he had a 25% tear in his left patellar tendon, for which he received a platelet-rich plasma injection. He is scheduled to throw a second bullpen session this week and start a rehab assignment next week. Topa was a critical late-inning option for Seattle’s bullpen last season, but he has yet to pitch a regular season game for the Twins. Expected Return: August Understanding the impact of these potential returns is crucial, as we look toward the trade deadline. It's also a key dynamic in what is becoming a taut three-team race for the AL Central crown. Hopefully, each of the above return on schedule, if not sooner. Which player will impact the Twins most in the second half? Will these player’s expected returns impact the team’s trade deadline strategy? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Brooks Lee has showcased his strong hitting abilities to start his big-league career. Let’s look back at his time in the Twins farm system, to see how he got to this point. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints The top of the 2022 MLB Draft didn’t play out as many expected. The Twins were surprised and ecstatic when Brooks Lee fell to them with the eighth overall pick. He was the back-to-back Player of the Year in the Big West, and many evaluators considered him the top collegiate hitter in his draft class. Lee has come as advertised during his professional career. "We were hoping to get a player who would make it to our pick who maybe we didn’t think would absolutely get there," Twins scouting director Sean Johnson said. "Brooks Lee fits that bill. Our room was thrilled when we were able to select him, that he made it down that far. You just didn’t know how the board is going to fall." The Twins signed Lee for $5.675 million and began promoting him aggressively through tbeir system. Lee got his feet wet with four games in the Florida Complex League, where he went 6-for-17 (.353) with two doubles. Minnesota quickly promoted him to High-A Cedar Rapids, where he hit .289/.395/.454, with four doubles and four home runs across 25 contests. Wichita was headed to the Texas League playoffs, so Lee advanced to Double-A for the stretch run. He helped Wichita qualify for the Championship Series, before losing to the Frisco RoughRiders. It was a memorable professional debut that established Lee as one of the game’s best prospects. Entering the 2023 season, Lee was a consensus top-50 prospect according to the three national top-100 lists. Minnesota sent him back to Double-A, where he had ended the 2022 campaign. In 87 games, he hit .292/.365/.476, with 31 doubles and 11 home runs. In early August, the Twins promoted Lee to Triple-A, where he was over four years younger than the average age of the competition in the International League. There, Lee struggled for the first time in his professional career, as he hit .237/.304/.428 with 16 extra-base hits in 38 games. He knew something needed to change entering the 2024 season, and used the offseason to fix his flaws. As a switch hitter, Lee’s left-handed swing has always been his better side. During the 2023 season, he posted an .806 OPS as a lefty and a .603 OPS as a righty. He spent the offseason refining his right-handed swing to make it more closely match his left-handed swing. In spring training, Lee started to show off his improved mechanics, but a herniated disc in his back put him on the IL to begin the year. Back injuries can be tricky and have long-term impacts, but the Twins decided on a course of action that didn’t include surgery. Lee worked through his rehab and made his first appearance with the Saints at the beginning of June. Lee quickly made it difficult for the Twins to leave him in the minors. In 20 games with the Saints, he hit .329/.394/.635, with five doubles and seven home runs. His right-handed swing entirely changed, as he went 13-for-38 (.342) against lefties with eight extra-base hits. For some perspective, he had seven extra-base hits in 109 plate appearances against southpaws last season. If healthy, Lee would have likely been called up earlier in the season, but his performance shows that he was knocking down the door to the big leagues. Defensively, Lee has continued to play shortstop regularly, but will get limited reps at that position in the majors. Royce Lewis’s injury means that Lee will regularly play third base, a position he has only started ten times as a professional. The Twins have also given him a lot of pre-game reps at second base, which might be his long-term position. Lee moved quickly through the Twins system, but that can be expected for an advanced college bat. What stands out about his professional career? What have you noticed during his first few games in the majors? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article