Cody Christie

There is no question that Byron Buxton's performance has been disappointing during the 2023 season. With fewer than 40 games remaining, the Twins might have one option: a return to center field. Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports Byron Buxton was placed on the IL in early August with a right hamstring strain. Early last week, head athletic trainer Nick Paparesta told reporters that Buxton had resumed baseball activities, and his next step was to begin running progressions. The Twins have avoided sending Buxton on a rehab assignment this season, but it sounds like he won't avoid a St. Paul trip with his current injury. "Byron is getting back into baseball activities at this point in time," Paparesta said. "Obviously, him getting back into baseball activity is a good sign. Throwing, hitting, taking some ground balls and stuff, which is good." Minnesota's plan in spring training was to start Byron Buxton as the team's everyday designated hitter and eventually move him back to center field. Initially, the Twins likely hoped his knee would improve during the season so the club could use him in the outfield. Unfortunately, there has been little improvement with his knee, and he's also dealt with back issues and his current hamstring problem. Injuries have been part of Buxton's entire professional career, which can be frustrating for all parties involved. Buxton's time at DH has allowed him to appear in 85 games in 2023, but his offensive performance is below his recent standard. He has hit .207/.294/.438 (.731) with 17 doubles, one triple, 17 home runs, and a 109-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His 99 OPS+ is his lowest total since 2018. This OPS+ is low for an everyday DH, but it would be an acceptable total for an everyday centerfielder with elite defensive skills. His below-average performance is pushing the Twins to move him back to the outfield. In mid-July, Thad Levine talked about Buxton's outfield work in an interview with Cory Provus. He said, "Behind the scenes right now, we are doing a lot of defensive work, so when that time comes, we don't say we need three weeks to ramp him up. There are some things being done on a daily basis to help position him to be able to go out there when he is ready." Levine's quote also aligns with Paparesta's plan outlined above, which includes throwing and taking ground balls. The Twins also have better-performing DH options currently on the roster. Royce Lewis' return from the IL has left the team with one more infielder than positions on the field. Jorge Polanco and Edouard Julien can both see time at DH and second base. Carlos Correa has also been fighting plantar fasciitis, and some time away from shortstop might help his performance. Ryan Jeffers has been one of the team's best hitters in the second half and has started to get time at DH on days when he isn't behind the plate. Matt Wallner is another young bat that is tough to keep out of the line-up, and using him at DH helps to improve the roster. Minnesota's best-performing team includes Buxton in center field, playing at a high level. Twins fans saw this from him during his All-Star performance in the first half of 2022. Buxton posted an OPS over 1.060 in April and June on his way to being named the AL's starting center fielder. It's hard to argue what that would mean to the line-up if the Twins could glimpse that player in the season's final month. The Twins' playoff losing streak has stretched to 18 games, so winning in October is the easiest way to stop some negativity surrounding the team. Depending on the playoff match-up, Minnesota's best line-up puts Buxton in center field, but there are other injury concerns to sort out before the postseason. On paper, the positions below seem like the best way for the Twins to end their October woes. C: Ryan Jeffers 1B: Alex Kirilloff 2B: Jorge Polanco SS: Carlos Correa 3B: Royce Lewis LF: Matt Wallner CF: Byron Buxton RF: Max Kepler DH: Edouard Julien If Buxton had performed well at DH, there would be less reason to push him back to center field. Instead, his offensive streakiness will force the Twins to make a decision. For better or worse, Buxton will return to center field before the season ends. Should the Twins keep Buxton at DH? What is the best Twins line-up for October? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins focused on depth at multiple roster spots this winter, and the on-field results speak for themselves. With a month left in the season, which Twins are lining up to be Gold Glove finalists? Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are through games played on August 13th, 2023. Pitcher (AL Ranking): Pablo Lopez 2.3 SDI (3rd), Sonny Gray 1.3 SDI (5th), Joe Ryan -0.8 SDI (22nd) Lopez continues to put himself in the conversation as one of the top defenders off the mound. Over the last month, his SDI total rose from 1.5 to 2.3, which ranks him behind Jose Berrios and Dean Kremer in the AL. After a tremendous month, Sonny Gray jumped from the back end of the rankings into the top five. He has a chance to jump into the Gold Glove conversation if he continues at this pace. Ryan's injury has kept him from improving his SDI total for the year. Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vazquez 1.6 SDI (5th), Ryan Jeffers -0.4 SDI (10th) Both Twins catchers dropped significantly in their SDI total over the last month. Vazquez saw his SDI total drop from 3.2 to 1.6 but didn't drop in the overall standings. He is 0.8 points out of the top three, so he will need to recoup some of that value in the season's final month, which might be a challenge since the Twins have been giving Jeffers more playing time. Jeffers also struggled by dropping in the rankings from 8th to 10th and losing 2.0 SDI points. It seems unlikely for either catcher to finish as a Gold Glove finalist. First Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify The Twins have used multiple players at first base so far in 2023, which means no one has accumulated enough innings to qualify for the SDI leaderboard. Donovan Solano (-1 OAA), Alex Kirilloff (-5 OAA), and Joey Gallo (0 OAA) have each accumulated over 290 innings at first base. New York's Anthony Rizzo and Texas' Nathaniel Lowe sit atop the AL first base rankings, and the Gold Glove race will likely come down to these two players. Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco have split time at second base for the Twins but neither ranks particularly well defensively. Polanco posted a -9 OAA during the 2022 season, and he's been worth a -6 OAA during the current season. Julien is a poor second-base defender, but he's been worth -2 OAA in close to 100 more defensive innings than Polanco. Injuries have clearly impacted Polanco over the last two seasons, and that's one of the reasons his Twins tenure may be ending. Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify Third base has been a position in flux for the Twins this season. Jose Miranda started the year at the hot corner and posted a -6 OAA in over 300 innings. Kyle Farmer has played the second-most innings at third, but it's been his worst defensive position in 2023. He's been worth 1 OAA at shortstop and second base while posting a -1 OAA at third. The Twins hope Royce Lewis can handle third base for the remainder of the season, but a new position has a learning curve. Like Farmer, he has been worth a -1 OAA with some strong plays more recently. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa -1.9 SDI (7th) In July's SDI update, Correa jumped from 11th to 7th among AL shortstops and improved by 1.7 SDI. There was hope he could continue moving up the rankings down the stretch. However, it was a rough month, and he dropped by 3.6 SDI points. One has to wonder if his plantar fasciitis impacts his defensive skills, but he's been worth 2 OAA for the entire 2023 season. Wander Franco (11.8 SDI) and Anthony Volpe (9.8 SDI) have more than triple the SDI total of the third-place defender, so Correa wasn't going to be in the Gold Glove conversation. Left Field (AL Ranking): Willi Castro 1.8 SDI (4th), Joey Gallo 0.1 SDI (6th) Willi Castro has made himself irreplaceable on the current Twins roster and has a chance to be a Gold Glove finalist in left field. He wasn't known as a strong defender before this season, but he's posted a positive OAA at shortstop, third base, second base, and left field. Only three qualified players, including Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Jarred Kelenic, and Andrew Benintendi, rank behind Gallo. Cleveland's Steven Kwan (10 SDI) has lapped the field and should easily walk away with the Gold Glove. Center Field (AL Ranking): Michael A. Taylor 6.3 SDI (3rd-Tie) Taylor had a tremendous defensive month to move from fifth in the AL to tied for the top three. He gained 2.6 SDI points over the last month, including multiple highlight reel catches (see below). His OAA ranks in the 95th percentile, seven points higher than last season, and his arm strength ranks in the 91st percentile. His previous reputation might help him to be a Gold Glove finalist over some of the other candidates. Other top center-field defenders include Jake Meyers (7.1 SDI), Julio Rodriguez (6.6 SDI), and Kevin Kiermaier (6.3 SDI). Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 1.2 SDI (9th) Kepler will fall short of being a Gold Glove finalist for the second consecutive season. He's considered a strong defender but a slow start at the beginning of the season has prevented him from ranking higher among AL right fielders. His OAA sat in the 67th percentile at the beginning of June, and he's improved to the 88th percentile. Kepler's improved offensive performance has helped to cover up some of his defensive lapses during the 2023 season. Do any of these defensive rankings surprise you? Which Twins will be Gold Glove finalists? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota's farm system has ranked in the middle of the pack in recent years because of prospect graduations and trades. Will two budding stars push the Twins back into the conversation for one of the game's best farm systems? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Evaluating prospects has become ingrained in fans' evaluation of a team. It's easy to point at organizations like the Baltimore Orioles or Houston Astros that went into full rebuild mode to restock the farm system with the promise of better long-term outcomes. However, there are plenty of examples of teams who get caught in rebuild mode without ever having sustained success at the big-league level. Dreaming of the future can be fun for fans, but there are no guarantees that prospects will ever pan out. According to MLB.com, the Twins' farm system was moderately helped by jumping up to the fifth overall pick in MLB's first Draft Lottery. The 2023 MLB Draft was widely considered a five-player draft with a quintet of elite players sitting at the top of draft boards. Minnesota's farm system moved up two spots from 19th to 17th overall in MLB Pipeline's reranking of farm systems following the draft. Since 2021, this is the highest the Twins farm system has ranked, with the club's lowest ranking being 23rd (2022 midseason rank). Currently, the Twins have two prospects that rank among baseball's top 30, and an argument can be made for either to be the team's top overall prospect. Brooks Lee has remained at the top of the Twins Daily prospect rankings even after the team drafted Walker Jenkins with the fifth overall pick. Lee was recently promoted to Triple-A and has a chance to debut in the next calendar year, so it's expected for him to graduate from the team's prospect rankings by 2025. Instead, the team's top prospects project to be among baseball's best. Jonathan Mayo, one of MLB.com's prospect writers, believes the Twins will have two of baseball's top five prospects by 2025. Walker Jenkins is only a handful of games into his professional career, but many national outlets already rank him as a top-20 prospect. In his first nine professional games, he went 13-for-38 (.342 BA) with two doubles, one triple, and two home runs. Also, he's gone 3-for-4 in steal attempts and limited himself to six strikeouts. There is certainly a lot of pressure on high draft picks to perform in their first taste of professional baseball, and Jenkins has passed the first test. Emmanuel Rodriguez joins Lee and Jenkins in most national top-100 rankings and can potentially be a top-5 prospect by 2025. He's spent his age-20 season at High-A, where he has hit .228/.391/.443 (.834) with seven doubles, five triples, and 15 home runs in 81 games. After a slow start, Rodriguez has found his power stroke in August with four home runs and a .962 OPS in 12 games to start the month. For the second straight season, he is over two years younger than the average age of the competition at his level. In over 370 plate appearances, he has only faced a younger pitcher in two at-bats. The Twins have other prospects that will be among the team's top prospects by 2025. Marco Raya, one of the team's top pitching prospects, is pitching at Double-A in his age-20 season. Connor Prielipp will miss most of the 2024 season after having his second UCL procedure in three seasons on his left arm. He should be back to full strength by 2025 and working his way back into the team's top prospect conversation. Charlee Soto, the team's 2023 competitive balance pick, has yet to make his professional debut and might be the team's top pitching prospect by 2025. Brandon Winokur has been in the same FCL Twins line-ups with Jenkins and is off to a hot start. It will be interesting to see how these two players push each other as they club the organizational ladder. Few top Twins prospects have had a clear runway at the big-league level because injuries have impacted players, including Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Austin Martin. Prospect development only sometimes follows a linear path, and other hiccups can occur with a player's performance from top prospect to MLB contributor. Jenkins and Rodriguez have two of the highest ceilings of any prospects coming through the Twins system in quite some time, and it's exciting to project what the team's farm system can look like in two years. Will the Twins have two of baseball's top five prospects by 2025? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Jorge Polanco has been one of the Twins’ most underrated players throughout his big-league career. It’s looking more like his Twins tenure will end with a looming option, poor performance, and young players ready to replace him. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Polanco debuted with the Twins 10 seasons ago, but he only appeared in nine games over his first two seasons. Minnesota had an infield need in 2014, and he was the only option on the 40-man roster. He became a regular for the Twins in the second half of 2016 and played over 100 games for the first time in 2017. Polanco started the 2019 All-Star Game at shortstop, and Twins Daily named him the team’s MVP in 2021. He will play his 800th game with the Twins this season, and the club will likely induct him into the team Hall of Fame following his retirement. Polanco has dealt with mounting injuries in recent seasons that have had a negative impact on his performance. Ankle injuries slowed him down during the 2019 and 2020 seasons, resulting in back-to-back offseasons where he needed surgery. He went on the IL for the first time in his career on June 16, 2022. Injuries limited to 46 games after his IL stint in 2022, and a knee injury delayed his start to the 2023 campaign. He’s played fewer than 50 games for the Twins this season, making his team option a tough decision for the front office. The Twins signed Polanco to a five-year, $25.7 million contract extension before the 2019 campaign, which turned out to be team-friendly. According to FanGraphs, Polanco has provided the Twins with $82.2 million worth of value since he signed his extension. Minnesota has two team options left on his current deal for $10.5 million per season. In 2023, injuries have limited his playing time, and he has been worth .$5.1 million. The Twins and the team’s medical staff know Polanco better than anyone, and his injury history might make it difficult for the club to pick up his option. Organizationally, younger players are performing at the big-league level and are prepared to step into Polanco’s role. Edouard Julien has been one of the team’s best hitters this season while regularly playing at second base. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee are also expected to fit into the team’s infield picture for the foreseeable future. Minnesota’s ideal line-up by midseason next year likely includes Lee and Lewis, along with Carlos Correa and Alex Kirilloff. Health can always influence how the front office constructs the roster, especially with how the team has tended to value depth. If Polanco’s Twins tenure ends, fans should remember him as one of the best infielders in team history. Only three shortstops have accumulated more fWAR than Polanco, including Roy Smalley, Zoilo Versalles, and Greg Gagne. Rod Carew, Chuck Knoblauch, and Brian Dozier are the lone second basemen with more than fWAR than Polanco. All those infielders are among the best in team history, and each accumulated at least 150 more games than Polanco during their Twins tenure. Polanco has given the Twins tremendous value during his career, including being a leader on multiple playoff-contending teams. However, his Twins tenure seems to be coming to an end, with younger and cheaper options ready to step into the infield. There is a possibility that the Twins exercise his $10.5 million team option, but that seems like a fleeting chance at this point. Should the Twins exercise Polanco’s option? Can the team try and work on a restructured deal? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Each player below is well on their way to establishing themselves at the big-league level. Which players rank among the team’s best 25 and under players? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson - USA TODAY Sports The Twins have developed a solid young core carrying the team’s offense throughout the 2023 season. Each player below is in their age-25 season or younger while playing in the upper level of the minors. Some players no longer qualify for the organization’s top prospect list; others have yet to make their big-league debut. Players not eligible for the list include Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, and Willi Castro, who are all in their age-26 season. Part 1: 6-10. 5. Matt Wallner, OF Age: 25 Wallner is the organization’s reigning Minor League Player of the Year, and he dominated with a .927 OPS at Triple-A in 2023. Twins’ fans were calling for his promotion throughout the season’s first half, and now he is getting an opportunity in the middle of a pennant race. In 34 games, he has hit .244/.365/.522 (.887) with four doubles and seven home runs. He has a 31-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 107 plate appearances, but strikeouts are part of any power hitter’s profile in the current baseball climate. His outfield arm is also one of baseball’s best. The Twins should have Wallner penciled into a corner outfield spot for the foreseeable future. 4. Edouard Julien, 2B Age: 24 Julien rose swiftly on Twins prospect lists after a breakout 2022 season where he hit .300/.441/.490 (.931) at Double-A. His rookie season is shaping up to be one of the best in recent Twins’ history. Julien hit .286/.377/.491 (.868) with 11 doubles, one triple, and 10 home runs in his first 67 games. His below-average defense at second base is the one knock against him at this point in his career. He likely projects as a first baseman or DH in future years, and that’s why he isn’t higher on this ranking. 3. Jhoan Duran, RHP Age: 25 It’s hard to imagine where the Twins would be over the last two seasons without Duran. His development into one of baseball’s best late-inning weapons has been critical to the team staying in the division race. He’s pitched just over 112 innings over the last two seasons with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP while striking out 12 batters per nine innings. He threw the fastest pitch in MLB this season and collected 20 saves for the first time in his career. His average velocity is up on both fastballs and offspeed pitches this season. Duran ranks in the 92nd percentile or higher in Whiff%, K%, xBA, xSLG, and xERA/xwOBA. 2. Royce Lewis, SS/3B Age: 24 Injuries have limited Lewis to 38 big-league games over the last two seasons, but he’s showcased his dynamic skill set during that time. In 140 plate appearances, he slashed .319/.343/.496 (.839) with six doubles and six home runs. The Twins drafted Lewis as a shortstop, but there have been questions about his ability to stick at that position. The team shifted him to third base in 2023 because Carlos Correa is playing shortstop. In future years, the team’s best defensive line-up might include Lewis at second base or in the outfield. He places second on this list because injuries have impacted a large portion of his career to this point. 1. Brooks Lee, SS Age: 22 The Twins have been aggressive with Lee after taking him with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. He was the first player from his draft class to play at the Triple-A level. Minnesota promoted him to St. Paul after he hit .292/.365/.476 (.841) with 31 doubles and 11 home runs in 87 Double-A games. He continues to play shortstop, but third base is likely his eventual defensive home as his body continues to mature. There is a small chance the Twins might need Lee at some point this season, but that seems unlikely unless there are multiple injuries at the big-league level. How would you rank the top five? Should Lewis be ranked number one over an unproven Lee? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Full Rankings (with link to more Twins Daily articles on each player): 10: Austin Martin 9: Jose Miranda 8: Simeon Woods Richardson 7: Louie Varland 6: Alex Kirilloff 5: Matt Wallner 4: Edouard Julien 3: Jhoan Duran 2: Royce Lewis 1: Brooks Lee View full article

Minnesota’s bullpen has needed an upgrade for most of the season. Can any current starters help add depth to the bullpen for the stretch run? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota’s starting pitching has carried the team through much of the regular season. In the playoffs, the Twins will need fewer starters for the postseason, so the team may have players shift to relief roles. Here are four starting pitchers the Twins might consider for a bullpen shift in the coming weeks. Kenta Maeda, RHP Last season, there was talk about Maeda shifting to a bullpen role when he returned from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, the Twins fell out of the playoff race, and there was no reason to rush him back. One of the main reasons there was discussion about Maeda in a bullpen role was his previous success as a dominant postseason reliever during his Dodgers tenure. In 25 postseason appearances, he has a 2.87 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. He has not made a relief appearance since being traded to the Twins before the 2020 season. Maeda has been the team’s best starter in the second half, so the club might be hesitant about him shifting to a different role. Since returning from an early season IL stint, Maeda has posted a 2.36 ERA with a 62-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 49 2/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .190/.251/.333 (.585) during this stretch. If the playoffs started today, the Twins would have to put Maeda into the starting rotation, but a lot can happen in the coming weeks to change that narrative. Dallas Keuchel, LHP Keuchel’s Twins tenure started well by pitching five innings and allowing one run on eight hits. Many fans called for him to join the rotation after he posted a 1.12 ERA across six starts with the Saints. His minor-league totals were acceptable, but some peripheral numbers pointed to his recent struggles from recent seasons. Keuchel struggles to strike out batters and gives up a lot of contact, which can lead to runs. Those aren’t exactly traits that a team desires from a bullpen option in critical late-season games. In his first start, his velocity increased on every pitch type compared to last season. Most of his pitches top out in the high-80s without missing many bats. As a left-handed pitcher, there might be a bullpen opportunity if Caleb Thielbar struggles with his return from the IL. Keuchel’s second start with the Twins was disastrous, so his only chance to impact the Twins late in the season is likely in the bullpen. Would the team want a soft-throwing lefty as a reliever? Louie Varland, RHP Varland dominated in his most recent Triple-A start on the same night Keuchel struggled with the Twins. He is part of the team’s long-term plans and is the back-to-back winner of the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year. Three bad starts in June pushed Varland out of the rotation when Maeda returned from the IL. Before that stretch, he had a 3.51 ERA with 39 strikeouts and eight walks in 41 innings. He seems likely to rejoin the Twins rotation shortly, especially if the team feels the Keuchel experiment was a failure. The Twins won’t need five starters in the playoffs, and that’s why an eventual bullpen move for Varland makes sense. Last season, he pitched a career-high 152 1/3 innings, and he’s about 30 innings behind that total in 2023. Minnesota can help monitor Varland’s innings down the stretch while still finding him a useful role for the big-league club in October. Chris Paddack, RHP Paddack is the dark horse in this group. Similar to Maeda in 2022, Paddack is returning from Tommy John surgery and might be able to join the team in September. It’s his second time recovering from this procedure, so he is very familiar with the process, and he’s about 14 months removed from the surgery. Paddack is scheduled to face live hitters in mid-August, which puts him on track to rejoin the Twins sometime in September. It seems natural for Paddack to want to return to the mound and help his team. However, there is no reason to rush him back to make a handful of appearances with the club. It seems more likely for the team to give him the entire off-season to recover and be full strength for spring training next season. Will the Twins move any of these starters into relief roles? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Prospect lists can be flawed in the fact that there are players that have lost prospect eligibility but are still young. Let's explore the Twins' top players in their age-25 season or younger. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have developed a solid young core carrying the team's offense throughout the 2023 season. Each player below is in their age-25 season or younger while playing in the upper level of the minors. Some players no longer qualify for the organization's top prospect list; others have yet to make their big-league debut. Players not eligible for the list include Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, and Willi Castro, who are all in their age-26 season. 10. Austin Martin, IF/OF Age: 24 Martin was considered the top prospect the Twins received as part of the Jose Berrios trade, but he's struggled since the trade. During the 2022 season, he posted a .683 OPS at Double-A. During spring training, Martin sustained a sprained ligament in his right elbow. Thankfully, he has been able to avoid surgery. In 26 Triple-A games, he has hit .261/.374/.364 (.737) with six doubles and one home run. It will be interesting to see if his performance improves with an entire off-season to recover from his elbow injury. 9. Jose Miranda, 3B/1B Age: 25 Miranda would have easily been in the top-5 of this list at the season's start, but his performance has struggled in 2023. He suffered a shoulder injury during spring training and tried to play through the injury. In 40 big-league games, he posted a 56 OPS+ with seven extra-base hits and 24 strikeouts. Miranda is currently on the IL because of his shoulder issue. When healthy, Miranda is an elite hitter, and the Twins hope this version of Miranda returns for the 2024 campaign. 8. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Age: 22 It's easy to forget that Woods Richardson is this young, especially after making his big-league debut during the 2022 campaign. He's pitched at Triple-A for nearly the entire 2023 season, where he is over five years younger than the average age of the competition. In 18 appearances, he has a 5.56 ERA with a 1.61 WHIP and 7.4 K/9. Luckily, he still has plenty of time to improve his performance and will be in the conversation for the Twins' 2024 starting rotation. 7. Louie Varland, RHP Age: 25 Varland might seem like the organization's forgotten starting pitching prospect, but he's won back-to-back Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He split time between the Triple-A and MLB levels in 2023 with results that don't match his previous performance. In 12 Triple-A starts, he has a 4.53 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and 10.6 K/9. The Twins might still need Varland during the 2023 season, but his performance has yet to warrant the team promoting him. He is still part of the team's long-term plans and projects to be in the Twins' rotation for 2024 and beyond. 6. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF Age: 25 Kirilloff would rank higher on this list for many teams, but he has struggled to stay healthy for multiple seasons. His wrist impacted his performance over the last two seasons, so the Twins ramped him up slowly to start the 2023 campaign. He looked like one of the team's best hitters for a stretch, including winning the AL Player of the Week. However, a shoulder injury has him back in the IL. An argument can be made for Kirilloff to be in the top-5, but he needs to prove he can stay healthy and productive at the big-league level. How would you rank these players? Which player will have the most significant long-term impact on the club? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins can hope the injury bug avoids the team in the season's final weeks, but that seems unlikely. Here are seven St. Paul Saints players who can be helpful pieces as the calendar creeps closer to September. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints In a perfect world, the Twins would glide through the season's final months while increasing their lead in the AL Central. Minnesota sports fans know better than to expect that to occur. It seems more likely that the team needs to dig into their accumulated depth at Triple-A to find a player who can help the club. Some players are on the 40-man roster, while others are not, adding another layer to the conversation. Trevor Larnach, OF 40-Man Roster: Yes Larnach has played 180 games for the Twins over the last three seasons and has yet to establish himself at the big-league level. He's seen other corner outfielders pass like Matt Wallner pass him on the team's depth chart. This season at Triple-A, he's posted a .917 OPS with 18 extra-base hits in 43 games. Larnach is the most likely option for the team to add to the roster for the stretch run. Ronny Henriquez, RHP 40-Man Roster: Yes Henriquez made his big-league debut with the Twins last season and allowed three earned runs in 11 2/3 innings with a 0.94 WHIP and nine strikeouts. Last season, he shifted roles between starter and reliever, so this has been his first full season in the bullpen. Over his last ten appearances, he has posted a 4.40 ERA with a 10-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Henriquez has been getting hit hard this season, but he's on the 40-man roster, giving him a chance to be a call-up. Louie Varland, RHP 40-Man Roster: Yes The Twins could have selected Varland over Dallas Keuchel when Joe Ryan recently went on the IL. However, that would have meant giving up on Keuchel and taking away some of the organization's depth. Varland struggled in his ten big-league starts this year by allowing 33 earned runs in 56 innings. The Twins demoted him in mid-June, and he's posted a 4.63 ERA in nine starts while opponents have accumulated a .797 OPS. Varland is the most apparent option with the Saints if a starter gets injured. Gilberto Celestino, OF 40-Man Roster: Yes Celestino didn't follow a linear development path with the Twins. The team rushed him to the big leagues, and he played 145 games with little experience at the Triple-A level. During spring training, he ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb, which required surgery. Following rehab, the Twins sent him to Triple-A, where he has a .743 OPS with ten extra-base hits in 32 games. He's a right-handed bat that can play all three outfield positions which might be helpful if there is an outfield injury. Brooks Lee, SS 40-Man Roster: No Many fans will be clamoring for Lee, the team's top prospect, to make his big-league debut, especially if the team falters down the stretch. He's the first player from the 2022 MLB Draft to play at the Triple-A level, so the Twins are already aggressive with his promotions. He posted an .841 OPS with 31 doubles and 11 home runs across 87 games at Double-A. If the Twins need Lee, it likely means an injury to a key player in the lineup. Kody Funderburk, LHP 40-Man Roster: No Surprisingly, the Twins have yet to turn to Funderburk while the team attempts to find reliable relief options. Minnesota has relied on Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran as the team's primary left-handed relievers, while Funderburk has posted solid numbers at Triple-A. In 31 appearances, he has posted a 2.68 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 13.4 K/9. He's been one of the organization's top relievers for multiple seasons and deserves a chance at the big-league level. Anthony Prato, UTL 40-Man Roster: No Prato can play multiple defensive positions in the infield and outfield, making him an intriguing option for the stretch run. He's also destroyed the ball since being promoted to Triple-A near the beginning of June. In 44 games, he has hit .324/.476/.613 (1.089) with 20 doubles and seven home runs. He's also drawn more walks (37) than strikeouts (36). Prato has been one of St. Paul's best hitters, and the Twins might want to reward his performance. Which player or players will help the Twins down the stretch? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have started to build a cushion in the AL Central, and the division is there for the taking. Here are three players who are X-factors for the club in the stretch run. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Fans were frustrated when the Twins didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline. However, the front office had three succinct messages to reporters, including Minnesota’s performance was tied to the players already in the locker room. There is some truth to that message, but there are players that can push the team to even greater success in the season’s final weeks. MLB.com identified seven X-factors on playoff-contending teams that were quieter at the trade deadline. Some contending teams made deadline moves and have gone into a tailspin since the deadline. Other teams, like the Twins, didn’t make significant moves and will rely on internal improvements. Here are three Twins players that are X-factors for the stretch run. Carlos Correa, SS X-Factor: Can he replicate last season’s hot finish? Preseason projections placed Correa among the AL’s best in WAR with players like Aaron Judge and Jose Ramirez. His first half was so poor that Jayson Stark put Correa in the conversation for the AL’s least-valuable player. The Twins have tried moving Correa to different spots in the line-up, but it hasn’t led to consistent offensive performance. According to FanGraphs, Correa ranks 11th on the Twins in WAR for position players, which is a far cry from the top of the American League. Last season, Correa had some ups and downs during his first year with the Twins before finding his swing late in the season. In September, he hit .355/.412/.589 (1.001) with eight doubles and seven home runs. Unfortunately, the rest of the Twins’ roster was imploding around him, and the team lost the division title. Correa expressed some frustration over the weekend when talking to reporters about his poor performance. The Twins need him to perform closer to his career totals, especially if the team makes the playoffs. Max Kepler, OF X-Factor: Can he continue to surpass his offensive expectations? During the offseason, it seemed likely for the Twins to trade Kepler, especially after the club signed Joey Gallo. The team’s depth chart was filled with younger options than Kepler that were left-handed hitting corner outfielders. Minnesota valued Kepler more than the offers they received, so they kept him on the roster, hoping he lived up to their expectations. Fans grew frustrated while Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner spent much of the season producing at a high level at Triple-A. Over his last 30 games, Kepler seems to have put it together at the plate. He’s hit .300/.345/.573 (.917) with six doubles and eight home runs while taking over the team lead in home runs. He’s come up with some big hits in important games while posting a 1.08 WPA during his recent hot streak. Minnesota never expected Kepler to carry the team’s offense, but he can be a threat in the back half of the line-up that helps the team down the stretch. Caleb Thielbar, RP X-Factor: Can he regain his dominant set-up form? The Twins didn’t acquire any relief help at the trade deadline, which will put even more pressure on the arms in the room. Thielbar has missed a large chunk of the season with an oblique injury. He tried to return from the injury in early June, but he might have rushed back too soon because he quickly reinjured himself. Over the last three seasons, Thielbar has posted a 3.10 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in 157 innings. It’s clear that he has been one of the team’s top relief options, especially in late-inning situations. Teams rarely use every arm in the bullpen in the playoffs, making the late-inning options even more important. The Twins also don’t have many left-handed relief options outside of Thielbar. Jovani Moran struggled mightily in recent weeks before being demoted to Triple-A in favor of Brent Headrick. Minnesota will need Thielbar to get some critical outs versus left-handed batters that might decide whether or not the Twins win the division. Which X-factor is most important to the team’s success? Are there other X-factors on the roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins entered the 2023 season hoping for better health after an injury-filled 2022 campaign. Byron Buxton’s usage was part of that plan, but the results have been disastrous. Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports Entering the 2023 season, the Twins hired Nick Paparesta as the team’s head athletic trainer, hoping he could help the club with some of their injury woes. Injuries were one of the team’s unfortunate storylines during the 2022 season, and it was a primary reason the club finished in third place in the AL Central. The club ranked second in the big leagues with 2,363 player-days lost to the injured list, including 19 players on the IL to finish the season. One of the players on the injured list to end the year was Byron Buxton, and injuries have impacted his performance throughout his professional career. In September, Buxton underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee to clean up the joint that caused him lingering issues throughout the 2022 season. The team hoped he’d be ready by spring training at the time of the surgery, but things didn’t play out that way. Buxton entered spring training needing to be ramped up slowly to avoid any potential setbacks. His first appearance in a minor league game came just two weeks before Opening Day, and it was becoming more apparent that the Twins needed a different plan for 2023. On March 21st, the Twins announced Buxton would open the season as the team’s everyday designated hitter. Multiple reasons existed for the team to make this decision, including he was continuing to build up from his off-season knee surgery, and colder weather in the season’s early weeks can impact players. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that Buxton was “doing great” physically, but the club viewed this as a plan to keep Buxton in the line-up as much as possible. For the most part, Buxton has been regularly available, but there are many more layers to the team’s plan at this point in the season. He has yet to play a defensive inning in center field, and the team has repeatedly said that Buxton is no closer to playing in the outfield. In the middle of July, Thad Levine mentioned that Buxton was doing a lot of defensive work “behind the scenes” to help ramp up before returning to the field. It seemed like a light might be at the end of the tunnel, but the light has started to fade. The Twins placed Buxton on the injured list on August 4th with a strained right hamstring. Minnesota plans to reevaluate Buxton after a two-week shutdown and ramp him up again. It was his second IL stint of the season after being hit in the ribs earlier in the year. He’s played in 85 of the team’s first 114 games, but he’s likely out until the end of August or the beginning of September. His goal last season was to play in 100 games, and he fell eight games short of that mark. Now, he’s in danger of falling short of the century mark again. For the most part, Buxton has lived up to the team’s plan regarding availability, but ongoing knee issues have hampered his performance. In 85 games, he has hit .207/.294/.438 (.731) with 17 doubles, 17 home runs, and a 99 OPS+. Buxton hasn’t posted an OPS+ below 115 since the 2018 season. Strong returns from injury were one of Buxton’s exceptional abilities in previous seasons, which might point to more significant injury issues this season. His health hasn’t improved even without playing in the field, making his injury situation frustrating for everyone involved with the Twins. The Twins faced a no-win situation with Buxton and his health in 2023. Minnesota could have thrown him into the outfield on Opening Day and hoped for the best. However, that likely would have bothered his chronic knee issues and put him on the IL earlier in the season. Some fans will continue to call for the Twins to use Buxton in the outfield even when he returns from his current IL stint. It’s looking more like that won’t be possible in 2023, and the club will need to formulate an alternate plan for 2024 and beyond. Should the Twins have done something different with Buxton this season? What should the team’s plan be for next year? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Joey Gallo is in the middle of his second straight season where he is underperforming. Minnesota has yet to move on from him, and now he might be down to his last opportunity. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports The Twins brought in Joey Gallo because he was available on a one-year deal and had some bounce-back potential. Minnesota also wanted to add depth at first base, and bench coach Jayce Tingler previously worked with Gallo and knew he could handle the position. Plenty of other left-handed hitters were on the Twins’ roster, but the front office felt like Gallo was a prime candidate to return to his previous form. Gallo’s early season performance pointed to him being back on track. During the season’s first month, he hit .236/.354/.709 (1.063) with three doubles, one triple, and seven home runs. His 22 strikeouts in 65 plate appearances were high, but he was hitting for plenty of power. The Twins were happy to take the good with the bad. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to sustain this early-season success while morphing into one of the league’s worst hitters. Since the calendar turned to May, Gallo has hit .161/.271/.361 (.632) with six doubles and 10 home runs in 65 games. He has struck out in 94 of his 180 at-bats during that stretch while being worth -1.08 WPA. His average exit velocity, hard hit %, and barrel % all rank in the 96th percentile or higher, with his BB% also being in the 90th percentile. The Twins would have gladly signed up for those numbers when agreeing to a deal with Gallo. Conversely, his contact has been few and far between, leading to terrible overall numbers. His xBA, K%, and Whiff% all rank in the 1st percentile. His xBA is 28 points lower than the next closest batter. Gallo has baseball’s worst Whiff%, and he’s among three players with a Whiff% higher than 40% (Jose Siri and Brent Rooker). There have been stretches where he bunched home runs in a week, but there have been long periods where he has been lost at the plate. Minnesota continues to use Gallo regularly, and he might get one final chance to prove he can provide value to the Twins. Gallo began the year as the Twins’ primary first baseman while. Alex Kirilloff was ramping up from off-season wrist surgery. At the end of July, the Twins placed Kirilloff on the 10-day injured list because of a right shoulder strain. It is incredibly disappointing since he was one of the team’s best offensive players last month. Minnesota also had an MRI earlier this week because his shoulder hadn’t improved as expected. The Twins might have wanted to part ways with Gallo, but now he will likely need to serve as the team’s primary first baseman during the season’s most critical games. Other power hitters have followed a similar path to Gallo, especially as baseball has evolved recently. Strikeout numbers continue to rise in the search for more power. Twins fans saw this with Miguel Sano near the end of his Twins tenure. Unfortunately, this all-or-nothing approach can decrease performance if the player isn’t drawing walks or making consistent contact. Gallo has likely been trying to adjust, but the results have failed to improve. After consecutive poor seasons, no team will give Gallo a long-term deal entering the 2024 season. He was likely hoping for a bounce-back year to secure a long-term deal. That contract is likely never going to happen for the 29-year-old. Even with a strong finish, he will likely need to sign a minor-league deal to prove he can be a big-league contributor. Can Gallo be a serviceable replacement for Kirilloff during the season’s final months? Leave a COMMENT and join the discussion. View full article

Like any front office, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have seen their share of ups and downs during their tenure. However, fans' trust in this front office might have hit an all-time low after back-to-back poor seasons and a lackluster trade deadline. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The Twins hired Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to head up their baseball operations department leading into the 2017 season. At the time, Minnesota had lost 90 games or more in five of the previous six seasons. A new direction was needed for a franchise stuck in some antiquated ways. Over the last seven seasons, the Twins have won two division titles, but the team has gone 0-for-6 in postseason games and had disappointing finishes for two consecutive seasons. It seemed like the 2023 campaign might be a make-it-or-break-it season for the front office, but they haven't treated it as such. Only some things have been doom and gloom for the front office in 2023. They have built one of baseball's best starting rotations through multiple trades in recent seasons. Over the last two winters, they have surprised the baseball world by signing Carlos Correa to multiple contracts. Despite these positives, the front office has avoided adding late-inning bullpen arms or a right-handed power bat. Those were the team's needs coming into the season and remain the same following the trade deadline. Falvey met with reporters in the hours following the deadline to discuss Minnesota's lack of moves. There were three clear messages from the front office, but each can be spun in multiple directions. If fans trust the front office, Message 1: Fewer Teams Ended Up Being Sellers This message is valid on a surface level. Teams on the fringes of contention like the Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, and San Diego Padres didn't enter full-out seller mode. Some of that can is expected with baseball's expanded playoffs, including three Wild Card teams in each league. According to FanGraphs, six teams in the AL have a 65% chance or higher of making the playoffs entering play on Wednesday. That leaves one playoff spot for a fringe team, and that was enough to stop some from selling. With fewer teams selling, it might have made it harder for the front office to address the team's needs, but other teams traded for relievers and right-handed corner bats. Minnesota's front office knew the teams guaranteed to be sellers, and their conversations could have focused on players from those clubs. Also, the Twins could have made better offers for players they valued with the deadline approaching. The supply of players changed with fewer teams being sellers, and teams, like Minnesota, must adjust to the market. Message 2: Stick with the Veterans For months, the Twins' front office has stressed that the most significant help to the team would come from the players in the clubhouse. Minnesota's highest-paid position players are Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Christian Vazquez, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco. All six players have underperformed compared to preseason projections. Correa and Buxton should crush left-handed pitching, but the team continues to struggle, and some of that performance is tied to the streakiness of the team's top right-handed hitters. Gallo has been one of baseball's worst hitters for two consecutive seasons. Kepler and Polanco have spent time on the IL while providing inconsistent performance. Vazquez was considered one of the top catchers on the free agent market, and his OPS+ is the lowest since 2018. There is plenty of blame to go around. Yes, the Twins aren't going to reach their full potential without the team's top players performing better. There were still opportunities to make low-cost additions to supplement the roster. Also, nothing is guaranteed when it comes to future performance. Some of the team's younger players had sat behind veterans on the depth chart even when it seemed apparent the younger player should be in the lineup more regularly. The front office values depth (maybe too much), making it tough to move on from veterans. Message 3: No Room On the 26-Man Roster Like the points above, the front office claimed that a lack of roster spots was another reason not to make a trade. Falvey and Levine felt there wasn't anyone on the 26-man roster that deserved to be passed over when acquiring a new player. In retrospect, this was the biggest falsity made by the front office in the wake of the trade deadline. Clearly, players on the team's roster deserve playing time over Gallo. He would be the most likely position player to move off the roster. Willi Castro also has the team's fifth most plate appearances with a 94 OPS+. It would be easy to add a better right-handed bat to take either of their roster spots. In the bullpen, the Twins carried Cole Sands for most of a week without him making an appearance. Minnesota has rotated through players in the eighth bullpen spot, which would make it easy to add a replacement. Jovani Moran has also struggled, and the team could have optioned him to make room. There are plenty of spots on the 26-man roster. A playoff cameo won't satisfy this fanbase, and it shouldn't satisfy fans. The front office is placing a large bet on the roster they assembled last winter, but that was before the hindsight of playing over 100 games. There are flaws with the Twins, and there was an opportunity to make minor additions to help this club. It might be time to move on from the current leadership group if the front office can't be trusted. Should fans trust the front office and its process? Will the front office survive if the Twins don't win the division? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article