Cody Christie

For many fans, the Twins’ payroll has been a focal point throughout the winter because of uncertainty surrounding the team’s television contract. Now, the team found out another, much smaller-market AL Central foe is spending in a big way, which is an embarrassing proposition. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports On Monday, the Royals announced a long-term extension with Bobby Witt Jr., their All-Star shortstop. It’s an 11-year deal worth at least $288.7 million, but there is a potential for it to be worth 14 years and $377 million if the Royals pick up a club option after the 11th season. Witt can also opt out of the contract after the seventh, eighth, ninth, and 10th years. To put this in perspective, the largest contract in Royals history before this deal was a four-year, $82-million contract with Salvador Perez. It is a franchise-altering move that sends shockwaves through the entire AL Central. Kansas City has been aggressive this winter, signing multiple players before inking Witt to a massive contract. Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfroe, Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton, Will Smith, and Seth Lugo all signed as free agents, from the middle of December through the middle of January. While those players might not move the needle for the Royals immediately, it shows their fans that the team is attempting to get better, after a disastrous 2023 season that saw the club lose 106 games and finish in last place in a dreadful AL Central. Adding all those salaries into the team’s 2024 payroll, Kansas City will have a payroll close to $138 million, with a luxury tax payroll of $161 million, the highest total in the AL Central. As currently constructed, the Kansas City Royals have the AL Central’s highest luxury tax payroll, projected at $161 million, followed by Minnesota ($154 million), Cleveland ($131 million), Chicago ($129 million), and Detroit ($119 million). The Twins ended last season with an estimated final payroll total of $159 million, a team record. Minnesota’s front office has been direct with fans that the payroll would drop this winter because the team’s television contract expired at the end of last season. A loss of $55 million in television revenue means the team’s payroll will likely sit between $125-130 million for next season. However, the team is close to a one-year contract to return to Bally Sports that would pay the club north of $40 million. While that deal isn’t official, there is no indication from the team that they will increase payroll when a new contract is in place. There are multiple reasons for the Twins to be embarrassed by the Royals outspending them in any given season. Market size is one of the most significant indicators of payroll spending, so teams like the Dodgers and Yankees have the highest payrolls from one season to the next. According to Nielsen, Kansas City ranks as the 34th-biggest television market in the United States, behind multiple cities without an MLB team (Columbus, Hartford, San Antonio). Minneapolis-St. Paul’s market ranks 15th, just ahead of Denver and Miami. Last season, the Twins’ payroll ranked 16th in MLB, while the Royals spent $60 million less than Minnesota and ranked 24th. The Royals’ television contract is also under the Bally Sports umbrella, with their deal worth a reported $48-52 million per season. Like the Twins, their television future beyond 2024 is likely headed for a different home, but it didn’t stop the Royals from spending big. Many teams have been passive on the free-agent market this winter, but Kansas City has targeted players that fit specific needs and spent money despite the uncertainty of future television revenue. Fans can point to the roster and see how the team is improving, which is something Twins fans haven’t been able to do this winter. All this is made more galling, though, by the fact that the Twins are squarely in the middle of a competitive window they need to fight to keep open, while the Royals are near the nadir of an ugly rebuild. Kansas City hasn’t made the playoffs since they made back-to-back trips to the World Series in 2014 and 2015. During that stretch, there have been some dark seasons for the Royals, including three seasons with 97 losses or more. Minnesota has had four playoff appearances since Kansas City last played in October, which results in more revenue. The Twins also average 700,000-800,000 more fans in attendance per season, which is also tied to the team’s spending. The team has expressed optimism about burgeoning attendance for 2024, based on season ticket sales in the wake of their playoff wins last season. There is no defensible reason for the Twins to spend less money than the Royals, but that's the current reality which will add another layer of frustration for Minnesota fans in what has already been a frustrating offseason. Should the Twins be increasing their payroll? Is it fair to compare Minnesota and Kansas City? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have attempted to trade Max Kepler for multiple years but haven’t received what the team views as his perceived value. So, what value does he provide the Twins for 2024, and is there still a chance he will be moved this winter? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Max Kepler stands alone as the longest-tenured Twins player following Jorge Polanco’s departure from the organization. Both players signed as 16-year-olds on the international market back in 2009. They grew up and spent half their lives in the Twins organization. Kepler’s time in the organization is also nearing an end with one more year of team control, but rumors have swirled about him being traded for multiple seasons. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported that the Mariners inquired about adding Kepler to the Polanco trade. Seattle would have needed to add more to the trade to even out the value. However, the Kepler side of the deal didn’t gain steam, and the teams ended up agreeing to terms for the players in the Polanco deal. Because of his expiring contract, Kepler’s name will be tied to trade rumors until the trade deadline passes later this summer. It becomes a complicated situation with the value he can still provide the Twins, but that amount is shrinking the longer they hold on to him. Kepler’s Value to the Twins The Twins front office has highly regarded Kepler when teams have inquired about him via trade. He’s coming off one of his best offensive seasons as he hit .260/.332/.484 (.816) with 22 doubles, two triples, and 24 home runs. His overall numbers don’t tell the story of his 2023 campaign. At the All-Star Break, Kepler was hitting around .200 with a .688 OPS, and there were conversations about whether a younger player should replace him. His second half was tremendous as he morphed into one of Minnesota’s best offensive performers with a .926 OPS. Those totals were better than his numbers in his breakout 2019 season. Looking at Minnesota’s roster, there is a need for Kepler, mainly if he can produce like he did in the second half. Currently, Kepler projects to be the team’s regular right fielder, with Matt Wallner getting regular time in left field. The Twins’ other corner outfield options include Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach. Castro is coming off a season where he posted a 106 OPS+ and gave the team 2.6 WAR. Gordon and Larnach suffered through disappointing seasons, so it’s hard for the team to hand them a starting job. If the Twins shifted to one of these players, there would be a downgrade in performance compared to Kepler. Kepler’s Value to Other Teams Kepler has one year remaining of team control for a team-friendly $10 million. According to FanGraphs, Kepler has provided the Twins with more than $10 million in value in every full season since 2016. Last year, he was worth over $20 million, the second-highest total of his career. Baseball Trade Values attempts to quantify the surplus value associated with players who could be potentially traded. Kepler’s surplus value comes in at $8 million, slightly lower than Polanco’s $9.4 million, but he has an extra year of team control. If the Twins traded Kepler, there are free agent outfielders that might be a better fit on the Twins roster because they are right-handed. There has been a need on the Twins roster for a power-hitting outfielder for multiple seasons, but the club hasn’t found a fit. Jorge Soler, Adam Duval, and Tommy Pham are all still available and would be solid right-handed hitters who can play in the outfield. Soler hit 36 home runs for the Marlins last season and posted a 1.080 OPS against left-handed pitching. Duval combined for a 119 OPS+ and played all three outfield positions. Pham was a playoff hero for the Diamondbacks and had trade rumors connecting him to the Twins in the past. Kepler can continue to provide the Twins with value this season, but the roster is hardly complete at this juncture of the offseason. It would make sense to trade Kepler if Minnesota spends money on a right-handed bat. Will the Twins still consider trading Kepler? How much value does he have in a trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Simeon Woods Richardson struggled last season at Triple A, but there is more than one reason to be excited about what he can provide the Twins in 2024. Here are three reasons to believe in the young starting pitcher. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Twins Daily has been counting down the team’s top 20 prospects this week, with multiple players expected to impact the team next season. Simeon Woods Richardson finished just inside the top 20, after pitching most of last season at St. Paul as a 22-year-old. In 113 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.91 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a 96-to-61 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His overall numbers were disappointing, but there are reasons for optimism. On my personal list, I ranked Woods Richardson as the team’s 11th-best prospect, eight spots higher than he finished in the overall rankings. As Seth Stohs wrote on Monday, SWR fared much better in the second half, with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in just under 67 innings. Those improvements are just the start of why fans should be excited about what he can offer the Twins in 2024. Reason 1: Stuff+ Tom Froemming recently posted a video (see below) showing that Woods Richardson ranked 10th in Stuff+ among all pitchers at Triple-A, and that included some rehabbing major-league arms. Stuff+ looks at the physical characteristics of a player’s pitches, including release point, velocity, and vertical and horizontal movement. According to FanGraphs, the Stuff+ model attempts to capture the “nastiest” pitches in baseball. Last season, Woods Richardson sat in the low 90s with his fastball, which he combined with three offspeed offerings. Even with a strong Stuff+, he had a tough time missing bats. For his career, he has averaged 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, but last season, his rate dropped to 7.6 with St. Paul. There is hope for his strikeout rate to increase, especially with the characteristics of his other pitches. Reason 2: Age Woods Richardson has been aggressively pushed up the organizational ladder since he was a 17-year-old in the Mets organization. He has been over three years younger than the average age of the competition at his level throughout his professional career. During the 2024 season, he faced older batters in 91.9 percent of opponent’s plate appearances, yielding an opponents' line of .261/.350/.426 in 418 at-bats. Over the season’s final months, batters posted a .642 OPS against Woods Richardson, so there were signs of improved performance. Luck also played a role in his poor performance early in the season. Woods Richardson wasn’t missing enough bats, so more balls were being put in play against him, resulting in higher BABIP totals. From April to June, batters hit .315 against him, with a .369 BABIP. Batters went 49-for-238 (.206 BA) from July to September, with a .240 BABIP. It’s also important to note that CHS Field in St. Paul has favored hitters, which can impact a pitcher’s overall numbers. Reason 3: Development Woods Richardson has previously struggled, especially when being pushed to a higher level for the first time. In 2021, he reached Double A and got his head knocked in, with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP across 53 1/3 innings. Minnesota had him repeat that level in 2022, and he had one of his best professional seasons, including pitching well for St. Paul. In 107 1/3 innings across two levels, he posted a 2.77 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP, including 9.6 K/9. It was a tremendous season, putting him back on the map as one of the team’s top pitching prospects. Throughout his career, SWR has worked on mechanical adjustments to get the most out of his lanky frame. He’s used recent offseasons to refine his strength and conditioning program to better handle the rigors of starting pitching. One of his most significant alterations is using his delivery to be more efficient in his direction to the plate, which can coax extra velocity. During his strong second half, there were also changes in his pitch usage. Against left-handed hitters, he used his change-up more regularly, and there were times when that pitch gained some vertical depth. With righties, he used his slider more often and commanded it better. Walks have haunted him in the past, so his ticket to the big leagues is his better command with his fastball, a pitch with some cut, and a higher whiff percentage with his secondary pitches. Pitching development is a non-linear path, and fans should still be hopeful about Woods Richardson. What improvements will Woods Richardson make next season? What is his ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Adrian Beltré took a unique path to being a first-ballot Hall of Famer by building his Cooperstown case in his 30s. Can Byron Buxton follow in his footsteps? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Last week, Twins fans were rightly focused on Joe Mauer as he narrowly made the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Joining Mauer in the Class of 2024 is another first-ballot selection, Adrian Beltre. No baseball player follows a precise path to being enshrined in Cooperstown, but Beltré’s was unique compared to others because he wasn’t headed to the Hall of Fame as he reached his 30s. Instead, a late-career surge put him among the best third basemen in baseball history. Manny Randhawa wrote at MLB.com about seven players who could see a late-career surge, like Beltré, to make the Hall of Fame. One current Twins player, Carlos Correa, made his list because he is entering his age-29 season and has already built a strong resume. I recently wrote about Correa and what he’d need to do to get back on track for the Hall of Fame. Another player on the Twins turned 30 this winter, and a return greatness could match what Adrian Beltré accomplished later in his career. Age Comparison Beltré through age-29 season: .271/.327/.459 (107 OPS+); 242 HR, 0 All-Star Appearances, 2 Gold Gloves Buxton through age-29 season: .239/.300/.468 (106 OPS+), 115 HR, 1 All-Star Appearance, 1 Gold Glove Beltré debuted with the Dodgers as a 19-year-old after being ranked as one of baseball’s best prospects. His early career was unremarkable before a breakout season in 2004 at age 25, his final year before reaching free agency. In that campaign, he hit .334/.388/.629 (1.017) with 48 home runs, 32 doubles, and 121 RBI. He’d finish a distant second to Barry Bonds for the NL MVP. Following the season, he signed a five-year deal to join the Mariners, where he struggled to replicate his MVP-caliber season. Through his age-29 season, he had been able to stay on the field consistently, but there were inconsistencies in his performance. Buxton debuted at age 21 after being touted as baseball’s top prospect because of his five-tool potential. Injuries and an inconsistent offensive approach marred his time in his 20s. Early in his career, coaches tried to get him to be a prototypical leadoff hitter by slapping or bunting the ball and using his speed to reach base. This approach was incorrect, and the Twins eventually figured this out. Buxton had a four-season stretch from 2019-2022, where he posted a 136 OPS+ but averaged 70 games per season. He showcased short bursts of his full potential, but injuries haven’t allowed him to play at a Hall of Fame level. Peaking In His 30s Beltré went on a stretch in his 30s that few others will match. For nine seasons, he hit .307/.358/.514 (.872) with a 130 OPS+, averaging 32 doubles and 25 home runs per season. He accomplished this while being selected to four All-Star Games, being a perennial top-10 finisher for the MVP, and playing Gold Glove-caliber defense at third base. Beltré was a workhorse throughout his career, with only one season (2017) where he played fewer than 100 games. Overall, there was a chance he could continue playing into his 40s, but Beltré decided to call it a career. Buxton turned 30 in December, and there is little chance of him landing in Cooperstown, but he has potential for a late-career surge. Injuries have been the biggest hindrance to Buxton’s overall performance, and he seems to be in a good place heading into the 2024 season. At TwinsFest over the weekend, he declared, “I’m back,” when asked about a return to center field. Minnesota plans to have Buxton start around 80 games in center, with his remaining time coming at DH or used as rest days. He has played over 92 games in one big-league season, so this is an aggressive plan to get the most from one of the team’s stars. Beltré was a unicorn that seemed to get better with age. Buxton has improved throughout his career, but his inability to stay healthy has kept him from reaching his full potential. What are realistic expectations for Buxton in his 30s? Can he regularly play in center field? Will he average more than 100 games per season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Jorge Polanco was traded to Seattle, but this can’t be the team’s only offseason move. So, how does his departure impact the team, and what’s coming next? Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Polanco was one of the longest-tenured Twins, so it can be challenging for fans to see him depart. He produced at a high level for most of his career, and is considered by many to be one of the most underrated Twins in the Target Field era. His consistency and switch-hitting ability helped to fill a critical role near the top of the lineup. In all probability, the front office is already working on their next move, so where do the Twins go from here? Lineup Analysis Polanco leaves a hole in the lineup that the Twins can address with in-house options. Edouard Julien is expected to take over the second base duties at the beginning of the year. His defense was below-average at second when he first came up last season, but he worked hard and made huge improvements by the season’s end. The Twins also have Brooks Lee waiting in the wings, but his Triple-A performance could have been better, with a .731 OPS in 38 games. Lee will probably start the year in St. Paul, but should debut in the season’s early months. Kyle Farmer seems to be the biggest beneficiary of Polanco’s absence. His right-handed bat is going to be needed on a more regular basis without Polanco’s switch-hitting abilities. Farmer will likely get starts against tough lefties at second base, while also being a pinch-hit option and defensive replacement in the late innings. So, knowing where the lineup stands, how do the Twins continue to improve for 2024? Free Agent Options The Twins saved just over $5.5 million by shedding Polanco’s salary and getting money from Seattle as part of the deal. Derek Falvey told reporters that the club plans to reallocate those savings into the roster. He also suggested that those upgrades will likely come on the position-player side after acquiring a starter (Anthony DeSclafani( and a reliever (Justin Topa). So, what’s left on the free-agent market? Some of the top-ranked free-agent options are still available (most of them Scott Boras clients), but the Twins didn’t save enough money to target those players. Early in the winter, Falvey admitted the team would evaluate the first base market with questions surrounding Alex Kirilloff’s health. The team has also needed a big right-handed bat for a couple years now. The Twins can go in a few directions with their recently reclaimed payroll flexibility, even if it is a minimal change. Tommy Pham is a name previously linked to the Twins, going back to last year’s trade deadline. He went to the Diamondbacks and was a playoff hero in their World Series run. In 2023, the right-handed slugger posted a 111 OPS+, and his OPS was nearly 20 points higher when facing lefties. He signed a one-year, $6-million deal with the Mets last winter and should get about that much again, based on last year’s performance. There is also an opportunity for the team to explore a pair of reunions from last year. Michael A. Taylor and Donovan Solano are still on the free agent market, and each makes sense for the team’s needs. Taylor provided insurance for Byron Buxton in center field last season, while having one of his best offensive campaigns. Buxton and the Twins are optimistic about a return to center next season, so the team might rely on internal options. Solano signed late last winter and gave the Twins some versatility off the bench. Minnesota values depth, and these players can add a veteran presence to the roster. More Trades The Twins will also continue to explore further trade possibilities. Veterans like Max Kepler, Christian Vázquez, and Farmer have been rumored to be available. As previously mentioned, Farmer likely has a more prominent role with Polanco’s departure. It also doesn’t seem likely for the club to trade from their catching depth. Vazquez had a poor offensive season, but the team prefers a catching rotation. Ryan Jeffers was great in 2023, but the team isn’t going to let him catch more than about 100 games. This leaves Kepler as the lone veteran option to trade, and the Twins haven’t been satisfied with their offers for him in recent seasons. Minnesota added DeSclafani, a starter, in the Polanco trade, but he isn’t considered a playoff-caliber starter and will slide into the back end of the rotation. Minnesota’s current starting rotation includes Pablo López, Chris Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Desclafani. The Twins added Gabriel Gonzalez, a top-100 outfield prospect, in the Polanco trade. One has to wonder if the front office will pivot and trade prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez or González for a starter. Rodríguez seemed like a potential trade piece at the beginning of the offseason, and those chances might have increased with the team’s recent moves. How will the front office complete the 2024 Twins roster? What’s the team’s next move? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

My list was getting long and I was trying to limit who made the cut. There are certainly other hitters on the fringes, but I also didn't want to have a 1/4 of the 40-man roster considered for this piece. Miranda: 1 Option Remaining Thompson: 2 Options Remaining Larnach: 1 Option Remaining

Teams need depth to survive baseball’s grueling 162-game season. Here are eight players at the back end of the Twins’ 40-man roster and how they can impact the team in 2024. Image courtesy of Kelley L Cox - USA TODAY Sports Like many teams, the Twins have prided themselves on building organization depth to continue contending even when injuries present themselves. The Twins have added multiple players to the 40-man roster this winter, including prospects and waiver claims. Each of these players will be projected to impact the team in different ways. Eight players sit at the back of the pecking order on the 40-man roster, but each might be called upon for an essential role in 2024. Pitchers Jordan Balazovic, RHP Balazovic was one of the team’s top starting pitching prospects before a disastrous Triple-A debut in 2022 with an ERA north of 7.50. Last season, he arrived at spring training early to prove he should make the team, but broke his jaw in an incident at a bar. In 2023, Balazovic combined for 70 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues. He struck out more than a batter per inning in St. Paul, but that rate didn’t translate to the Twins. He’s out of minor-league options, so he must prove he can be a reliable reliever or be placed on waivers. Matt Canterino, RHP Like Balazovic, Canterino was once ranked among the team’s top starting prospects. He is returning from Tommy John surgery this season, and the Twins plan on treating him as a starter. During his professional career, Canterino has dominated on the mound, but injuries have limited him to 85 innings. He seems like a prime candidate to move into a bullpen role, and that might be the easiest way for him to impact the Twins this season. Ryan Jensen, RHP Earlier this winter, the Twins claimed Jensen off waivers from the Marlins. He’s now in his fourth organization but has yet to debut. As a starting pitcher, he was a top-30 pick in the 2019 MLB Draft by the Cubs. His development stalled because of control issues, so he’s now a reliever. Minnesota hopes to get his walk rate under control because he’s shown an ability to strike batters out and to ratchet up his stuff in short bursts. He has two options remaining, so he can bounce back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues. Cole Sands, RHP Sands was projected as a back-of-the-rotation starter earlier in his professional career before transitioning to a relief role. He’s made 26 big-league appearances, with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. His strikeout rate as a reliever is only a hair over 20%, so he must miss more bats to move into a higher-leverage role. He has one option year remaining, so the 2024 campaign will be vital for him to show his long-term value to the Twins. Josh Staumont, RHP Minnesota targeted Staumont earlier this winter, and quickly signed him to a big-league deal for just under $1 million. He is returning from thoracic outlet syndrome, but the Twins believe he can contribute. Staumont has been a dominant reliever for the Royals in recent seasons, so the Twins know him well. He has one option remaining, so he can be sent to the minors if he isn’t fully ready for the start of the season. Josh Winder, RHP Winder has a similar profile to Sands and has one option year remaining. Winder has posted a 4.51 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP in just over 100 big-league innings. He was mainly used as a starter in 2022, when the team struggled with injuries. His strikeout rate has been higher in the minors, so he needs to prove he can attack big-league hitters in 2024. Position Players Yunior Severino, 1B Severino was added to the 40-man roster this offseason after leading the minor leagues in home runs. He’s moved down the defensive spectrum during his professional career, but it’s hard to ignore his numbers from last season. There are multiple players ahead of him on the organizational depth chart, so he will spend most of the season at Triple-A. He will have to hit his way to the big leagues, unless there are a series of injuries to Minnesota’s first base options. Nick Gordon, UTL Gordon was one of the bright spots on the 2022 team, with a 111 OPS+ in 136 games. Many were excited to see what he’d do for an encore in 2023, but his season never got off the ground. Instead, Gordon struggled, with a 34 OPS+ before fracturing his leg on a foul tip. He’s out of minor-league options, so he has to make the team coming out of spring. He will serve in a utility role while getting opportunities to play in center field on days when Byron Buxton is at DH. Which player will have the most significant impact on the Twins in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

One of the most significant storylines from Twins Fest weekend was Byron Buxton and his return to center field. How optimistic can fans be about his health? Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports Twins Fest weekend allows fans an opportunity to get up close and personal with the team’s players while also getting excited for the upcoming season. The Twins usually add pieces to the roster before the last weekend in January. Still, this offseason has been relatively quiet, with the club searching for a new television deal and multiple top free agents still unsigned. Fans are searching for other things to get excited about with the team, and Byron Buxton provided that opportunity. Throughout the weekend, Buxton was asked about his health and the possibility of returning to center field in 2024. On Friday night at Twins Fest Live, Buxton was asked about this possibility and said, “Oh yeah. I'm back.” On Saturday, the assembled media continued to probe Buxton with questions regarding his return. He said, “I wouldn’t have said that if I wasn’t sure. … [The] rehab feels money.” Buxton is rehabbing after a year when he was limited to 85 games while playing exclusively as a designated hitter. He attempted a comeback late in the season, including an appearance in center field for the Saints. However, he couldn’t be on the team’s playoff roster until Alex Kirilloff injured himself during the Houston series. Buxton made one pinch-hit appearance and failed to reach base. Overall, he hit .207/.294/.438 (.731) with 17 doubles, one triple, and 17 home runs. There were glimpses of his powerful bat, but the season, for the most part, was a disappointment. Following the team’s elimination, team doctors evaluated Buxton and decided a second knee procedure was needed for him to return to center field. He underwent a procedure to excise the plica, a membrane flap, in his right knee. Derek Falvey told reporters that the team hoped the surgery would alleviate some of the pain Buxton had suffered while dealing with patellar tendinitis throughout the season. It had a much shorter recovery timeline than the knee procedure he had following the 2022 season, so the Twins hoped he could have a fairly regular build-up to the 2024 season. The Twins have been optimistic about Buxton throughout the winter, especially following his first post-operation check-up back in December. At the time, the team said Buxton was doing “really well” with a plan for him to start baseball activities. “(The doctors) felt like he was moving around as well as they had seen him move around in a long time, which was great,” Falvey said at the winter meetings. “He was doing some things that he couldn’t really do last year at different times in terms of how he was moving, so that was good. … Our expectation is that will ramp up really the latter half of this week and into next week, which puts him on a pretty normal schedule from an offseason standpoint in terms of what he’s doing baseball activity-wise. Obviously, we’ll continue to update as we get more running progression pieces to this.” Buxton hasn’t been the most reliable narrator about his health in the past. He is a competitor, and his attitude has always been to push himself to make every play, even at the expense of his body. Buxton isn’t the only one that is pushing the positive narrative surrounding his health. Manager Rocco Baldelli and Falvey have been on record saying they expect Buxton to return to center. The team’s goal is for Buxton to play 80 games in center while splitting time at designated hitter. Minnesota will also rely on other center field options like Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin. For fans, Buxton returning to center might be a pipe dream, but the Twins are a better team him in center, and he seems on track to meet the team’s goal with spring training on the horizon. Will Buxton play 80 games in center next season? Is he a reliable narrator on his health? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Joe Nathan was one of baseball's best relievers for over a decade. His chances at being elected to Cooperstown improved this week with Billy Wagner falling just short of election, but as Wagner shows, his path won’t be easy. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Professional baseball’s history stretches back about 150 years, and on that scale, the concept of a relief pitcher is relatively new. Bullpen usage has continued to increase in recent years, with varying levels of effectiveness. Elite relievers should stand out even more than their peers. However, relief pitchers continue to be one of the most underrepresented groups in the Hall of Fame, with only eight enshrined players entering the current voting cycle. Billy Wagner's Hall of Fame candidacy will be at the forefront of debate over the next year, since he fell five votes short of election in 2024. He has slowly gained support in recent years, moving from 10% of the vote in 2016 to 68% last year. During the current voting cycle, Wagner was tracking around 80%, so there was still some question about whether or not he’d clear the 75% threshold needed for induction. No player has reached this high a percentage and not been inducted in the next voting cycle. So, why does Wagner deserve to be elected? He is one of the most dominant relievers of all time. Wagner has the highest strikeout rate for any pitcher with at least 900 innings. Using that same innings threshold, Wagner has the lowest opponent batting average (.187 BA) in MLB history. Mariano Rivera is the lone pitcher with a lower ERA and ERA+ since 1920. He also has the sixth-most saves all-time (422), but will likely drop on that list with Kenley Jansen (420) and Craig Kimbrel (417) set to pass him next season. His career was limited in innings, but he was one of the game’s best pitchers and deserves to be in the Hall. Former Twins closer Joe Nathan compares well to Wagner in multiple ways, but his Hall of Fame candidacy was short-lived. In 2022, he first appeared on the ballot and received 17 of 394 votes (4.3%). He fell three votes shy of staying on the ballot and received the most votes of any player who fell off the ballot that voting cycle. It was a crowded year to be on the ballot, because Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling were in their final year of eligibility. Some tough choices needed to be made, with writers being limited to 10 votes per ballot. JAWS is a metric created by Jay Jaffe that attempts to rank players based on their worthiness for the Hall. It takes a player’s career WAR and averages it with their seven-year peak WAR to create a weighted score, designed to help balance the desire we all feel for a Hall of Famer to have been truly great at their best but also demonstrate longevity. For relievers, Jaffe has started including a hybrid version of JAWS, which includes Win Probability Added, because relievers pitch in high-leverage situations for most of their appearances. The top five relievers, according to R-JAWS, had all been inducted into the Hall entering the current voting cycle. Wagner ranked sixth, and Nathan is seventh all-time, with the two players only separated by 0.5 points. JAWS isn’t the only statistic that helps Nathan’s cause, as he ranks well in many other areas. Even though he was 29 when he became a full-time closer, he pitched into his early 40s. Along the way, he was elected to six All-Star teams, finished in the top five of Cy Young voting twice, struck out more than a batter per inning, and finished in the top 5 in saves five times. Nathan also ranks sixth all-time in win probability added among relief pitchers. Overall, he’s eighth in career saves, and he had five seasons with a 1.88 ERA or lower. Some writers have plainly stated that they didn’t vote for Wagner and Nathan because of their poor playoff performance. They justify their decision through the lens that closers should thrive in pressure-packed environments like the postseason, and both pitchers failed to meet those expectations. Wagner made 14 playoff appearances and posted a 10.03 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings. Nathan compiled an 8.10 ERA with a 2.20 WHIP in 10 innings. It’s such a small sample size that it seems difficult to hold this against the relievers, but it was one of the reasons Wagner fell short on this year’s ballot. Nathan is one of the game’s all-time great relievers, a significantly underrepresented group in the Hall. Had his ballot not been so crowded, Nathan could have received more initial support, then slowly gained supporters in later years, like Wagner. Now, Nathan will need to wait for the Eras Committee to review his name in the coming years, hoping his résumé meets their criteria. The next scheduled review of players from the Contemporary Era is December of 2025, for inclusion in the Class of 2026. Do you think Nathan can be elected through the Eras Committee? Should he have lasted longer on the ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins’ front office has shown a propensity for extreme patience when completing the team’s roster each winter. Baseball’s most well-known agent, Scott Boras, has helped and hurt that strategy over the last three seasons. Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports Ask any baseball fan to name a baseball agent, and Scott Boras is likely the first name that comes to mind. Forbes has consistently named him the most powerful agent in sports, including saying that he is in “a league of his own.” At the winter meetings, Boras is the lone agent to hold court with the assembled media to talk about the state of baseball and his clients. He impacts the business side of the game, and it has ramifications felt by teams throughout their planning process. Boras represents multiple Twins players, including Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and top prospect Walker Jenkins. Minnesota’s front office seems to have a solid working relationship with Boras, and that must continue in the years ahead, with prominent young players tied to Boras Corporation. However, his control over the Twins’ finances goes far beyond the players he represents. Boras has impacted the Twins for three consecutive offseasons, in ways that have helped and hurt the team’s long-term plans. Let’s explore his impact and what it has meant to the Twins. 2022 Offseason: Lockout and Correa's Surprise The lockout significantly impacted every team’s offseason plans in 2022. Many top free agents hurried to sign new deals before the lockout stopped the market from moving forward. Some players--including Carlos Correa, one of the top available names--wanted to be patient with the market. It seemed unlikely for the Twins to have an opportunity to sign Correa, but things changed quickly following the lockout. On March 13, the Twins traded Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Ben Rortvedt to the Yankees for Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela. For Minnesota, the deal cleaned up the team’s financial commitments by getting Donaldson off the books. With this financial flexibility, the Twins stunned the baseball world and signed Correa to a three-year, $105.3-million deal with opt-out clauses after the contract’s first and second seasons. Boras got Correa the highest average annual value for an infielder, while the Twins’ patience allowed the club to land a superstar. 2023 Offseason: Correa Returns As expected, Correa and Boras opted out of the final two years of his initial contract with the Twins to hit free agency for the second consecutive offseason. The Twins struggled with injuries in 2022, but Correa compiled some of his career's best numbers, including a 138 OPS+. It seemed like he was hitting the market at a perfect time, with multiple big-market teams looking to swoop in and add him to the middle of their lineup. Correa and Boras had a whirlwind offseason. He agreed to terms with the Giants and Mets before having both deals fall apart due to concerns over a 2014 surgery on his lower leg. The Twins kept in contact with Boras and eventually agreed to a six-year, $200-million contract that can max out at $270 million over ten seasons. Minnesota’s patience paid off for the second straight year, and the team’s familiarity with the player and agent helped get a deal done. 2024 Offseason: Waiting is the Hardest Part Correa isn’t on the market again this winter, but Boras is still impacting the Twins. Spring training begins in less than a month, and six of baseball’s top free agents remain unsigned, five of whom are Boras clients. Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, and J.D. Martinez are waiting to find a new home, and Boras is pulling the strings behind the scenes. So, how does this impact the Twins? Minnesota is likely staying away from the free-agent market. Still, the club has tried to trade some veteran players, including Kyle Farmer, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Christian Vázquez. Teams interested in trading for these players are likely waiting until the free-agent market dries up, so the Twins are left in a holding pattern until the market develops. Overall, the Twins have been helped by Boras over the last two winters to make two different deals with Correa. Minnesota likely isn’t signing any of the big free agents left on the market this winter, but they also can’t trade players until other teams have a better picture of the holes in their roster not filled through free agency. Has Boras helped or hurt the Twins over the last three offseasons? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

It had become almost clear in recent weeks, but the results were officially announced on Tuesday night. Joe Mauer is a first-ballot member of the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Joe Mauer received the call that every baseball player dreams of following their retirement. He will be enshrined in the National Baseball Hall of Fame this summer, as part of the Class of 2024. Some Twins fans might be surprised by his support from the baseball writers, but his résumé stacks up with that of the top players in baseball history. Entering Tuesday, Mauer was trending above 83% on the known ballots. Candidates must be listed on 75% or more of the submitted ballots to be inducted. A player can stay on the ballot for up to 10 years if they receive more than 5% of the vote, so it looked as if Mauer would eventually be elected even if he fell short in 2024. Instead, he made it in his first try, and joined some elite company in the process. Mauer slid in at 76.1 percent, behind no-brainer third baseman Adrián Beltré (95.1 percent of voters) and sixth-time candidate Todd Helton (79.7 percent) in clearing the threshold, and the trio will go in alongside Jim Leyland in July. Before Mauer, there had only been two catchers in baseball history to be selected on the first ballot. To many, Johnny Bench is considered the greatest catcher of all time, and he received 96.4% of the vote in 1989. Iván Rodríguez was considered an elite defensive catcher and was named on 76% of the ballots in 2017. Mauer finished behind Bench with his percentage, but it still means he has the second-highest percentage for any first-ballot catcher in history. Mauer also becomes the latest pledge of the fraternity of Hall of Fame players from St. Paul, MN. He joins Paul Molitor, Dave Winfield, and Jack Morris in the halls of Cooperstown. Molitor and Winfield were both first-ballot selections, while Morris had to wait to be elected by the Veterans Committee. It’s incredible to have three first-ballot Hall of Fame members from the same city, and even rarer that they could all wear a Twins uniform during their prestigious careers. Mauer and the rest of the Baseball Hall of Fame’s 2024 class will be inducted in a ceremony on July 21, 2024, in Cooperstown, New York. For fans planning on attending, planning your trip well in advance is best. Cooperstown is a tough place to get to, and you must fly into a neighboring city and drive the rest of the way. That being said, a large contingent of Twins Territory will likely be on hand to support the hometown star. Congratulations to Mauer and his family on a tremendous career. Twins fans were lucky to watch him play in his hometown for his entire career. Now, he will be immortalized in Cooperstown, and one has to think that a statue outside Target Field will be coming in the years ahead. What’s your favorite Mauer memory? Will you be making the trek to Cooperstown this summer? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

With the 2024 season on the horizon, many national top prospect lists are starting to be revealed. So, which Twins prospects have the best tools? Image courtesy of William Parmeter (Jenkins), Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (Lee, Martin) MLB Pipeline recently surveyed baseball executives to discover which prospects had the best tools in various categories. Twins names littered the rankings, but that fails to give a complete picture of the organization. Below is a list of some of the top categories and Twins prospects battling for the organization's top spot. Best Hitter: Brooks Lee vs. Walker Jenkins Minnesota’s top two prospects provide different offensive skill sets. Lee has been touted for his hitting ability since the Twins drafted him in 2022. He can spray the ball to all fields and takes a professional approach at the plate. Jenkins is one of the best prospects to come through the Twins organization in quite some time, and has a tremendously high ceiling. His professional track record is limited at this point, so that’s why Lee gets the nod. However, Jenkins could be in the running for baseball’s top prospect with a solid 2024 campaign. Battle Winner: Lee Best Pitching Prospect: Marco Raya vs. David Festa There are different ways to evaluate the top two pitching prospects in the Twins organization. Raya was selected by the Twins in the 2020 MLB Draft out of high school in Texas, and the team has been cautious with his workload while also being aggressive with his promotions. He has a high ceiling, but the Twins haven’t allowed him to show he can handle a starter's workload. Festa pitched at Double and Triple A last season, with 119 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings. Fans will probably see him pitch for the Twins next season, but his ceiling is limited to a mid-rotation starter. Raya wins the battle for now. Battle Winner: Raya Best Defensive Prospect: Noah Miller vs. Noah Cardenas Following the 2023 season, Miller was selected as the best defensive shortstop in the minor leagues and awarded a Gold Glove. Last season, he handled 446 chances, helped turn 54 double plays, and finished with 295 assists in 107 games for High-A Cedar Rapids, posting a .984 fielding percentage. Cardenas is tremendous behind the plate, with all the skills to make it to the big leagues as a catcher. He’s known for working well with pitching staffs and has the receiving skills and throwing arm to control the running game. Catcher might be the most important defensive position, and Cardenas is one of the best in the minor leagues. Miller wins the battle for now, but this is a tight race. It'll only matter if either can hit as they climb the ladder. Battle Winner: Miller Best Baseball IQ: Brooks Lee vs. Noah Miller Lee could have been a first-round pick out of high school, but he told teams he wanted to play college ball for his father at Cal Poly. Lee has grown up around baseball, which made him an intriguing prospect when he fell to the Twins with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. His baseball acumen has allowed him to stick at shortstop this far into his professional career, when many believed he’d be forced to another position. Miller is also smart on both sides of the ball, but his baseball IQ showcases itself on the defensive side. He’s smooth to the ball and makes plays that few others can make. Lee wins the battle because he has more experience and is closer to the big leagues. Battle Winner: Lee Most Underrated Prospect: Marco Raya vs. Simeon Woods Richardson vs. Austin Martin Raya was one of the names mentioned in the MiLB piece, which shows how other organizations view him. If he can put it all together, he has the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Woods Richardson is coming off a rough year at Triple A. Still, he was significantly younger than the competition at that level, and St. Paul has been a favorable hitting environment. He’s a prime bounce-back candidate in 2024, and can put himself back in the team’s long-term plans. Martin missed time with an elbow injury last season, but now the Twins might need him to take on a more regular role in 2024. He won’t show up on any top-100 lists, but Martin has the potential to be a future All-Star. Battle Winner: Woods Richardson Breakout Prospect: Walker Jenkins vs. Brooks Lee Lee and Jenkins are on opposite ends of the prospect pipeline, but fans will watch each player closely in 2024. The Twins will have Lee begin the year at Triple A, but he could make his debut by midseason. Depending on when he debuts, Lee can perform well enough to be in the conversation for AL Rookie of the Year. There is no reason to rush Jenkins, but his performance might dictate an aggressive approach. It’s certainly possible for him to spend the first couple months at Low-A Fort Myers, move to High-A Cedar Rapids for most of the season, and end the year at Double-A Wichita for the playoffs. If things work out that way, he will be among baseball’s top five prospects. Battle Winner: Jenkins Do you agree with the battle winners? Who else should have made the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

One season doesn’t define a Hall of Fame career. For Joe Mauer, his 2009 season was one of the best in history for a catcher. What made that season so special, and how did he fare from month to month? Image courtesy of Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports The 2009 season was a crossroads for Joe Mauer. His years of team control were quickly dwindling, and fans had seen this story play out in the not-so-distant past. Torii Hunter left via free agency, and the front office felt forced to trade Johan Santana before his team control ran out. Mauer was under contract (on the first, now-forgotten extension he signed with the team) for 2009 and 2010, but the risk that the team would feel compelled to move him between those two campaigns loomed. That’s when a final season of Metrodome Magic pushed him to a career-best year. Mauer’s season failed to get off to a perfect start, as he missed the month of April with a back injury. However, he claimed the injury and minor rehab might have been a “blessing in disguise.” He was forced to do more core work on his abdominal muscles, which might have helped his in-season performance. “In April, I couldn’t watch a whole lot of the games,” he told reporters after the season. “I’d watch for a little bit and I’d get so frustrated that I wasn’t out there.” Mauer turned that frustration into an MVP campaign when he returned to the field. May (28 Games) Stat Line: .414/.500/.838, 7 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 19 BB, 16 K Best Game (May 23): 3-for-3, HR, 2 RBI, 3 R, BB, 0.26 WPA No player can win an MVP in his first month of the season, but Mauer gave it his best shot. Memorably, he hit a home run on his first swing of the season and never looked back. May would be the only month wherein he hit double-digit home runs, and it was one of three months in which he had more walks than strikeouts. In the middle of the month, he had a 20-game on-base streak, which included a 14-game hit streak. His hot start to the season earned him the AL Player of the Month, and it was just the first step toward his MVP. June (26 Games) Stat Line: .353/.407/.490, 5 2B, 3 HR, 10 BB, 12 K Best Game (June 2): 3-for-3, HR, 3 RBI, R, BB, 0.23 WPA Mauer’s power numbers cooled off significantly when the calendar turned to June. However, he continued to hit for average and post an extraordinary OBP. Mauer had multiple hits in nine of his 26 starts, and two of his three home runs came at the Metrodome. His best game of the month included one of his most significant home runs. Minnesota needed all of Mauer’s hits to beat Cleveland 4-3. The Guardians scored three runs in the final three innings to make it close, but Joe Nathan closed the door in the ninth. July Stat Line: .309/.377/.468, 3 2B, 4 HR, 11 BB, 15 K Best Game (July 23): 3-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 R, BB, 0.26 WPA July was Mauer’s worst month at the plate, but he still posted a batting average north of .300 and an .846 OPS. He was selected as the starting catcher for the American League All-Star team, and manager Joe Maddon penciled him into the third spot in the lineup. Mauer tied the game with a double in the fifth inning off Chad Billingsley. He finished the game 1-for-3 with a double, a run, and an RBI. August Stat Line: .391/.449/.652, 6 2B, 8 HR, 12 BB, 9 K Best Game (August 13): 2-for-4, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, R, BB, 0.31 WPA Mauer found his power swing again, as he posted an OPS of 1.100 or higher for the first time since May. He got the month off to a hot start with a 15-game hitting streak from August 2-18, and he stretched that to a 20-game on-base streak. His game against the Royals on August 13 was his highest WPA for the entire season, but the Twins ended up losing the game 5-4. Mauer was in the driver’s seat for his third batting title and was on a record-breaking pace for a catcher. September/October (32 games) Stat Line: .354/.471/.487, 9 2B, 2 HR, 24 BB, 11 K Best Game (September 14): 3-for-3, R, BB, 0.18 WPA Other teams feared Mauer and his bat in September, especially with the Twins hunting for a division title. Opposing pitchers were very careful pitching to him, and he drew a season-high 24 walks in the month, including six intentional passes. Justin Morneau suffered a season-ending back injury on September 12, and Mauer hit .378 for the remainder of the season. Minnesota and Detroit tied for the AL Central title, setting up an epic Game 163 at the Metrodome. Mauer went 2-for-4 in the game, and reached base four times in six plate appearances. It was a perfect ending to his MVP campaign, with the Twins winning in 12 innings. Mauer’s 2009 season was one of the best for a catcher, and the accolades started rolling in following the season. According to FanGraphs, Mauer accumulated the fifth-highest WAR total of any catcher in MLB history and the highest amount for any AL backstop. He set a major-league record for highest batting average by a catcher and won his third batting title--also a backstop record. He also became the first repeat batting champion in nearly a decade (Nomar Garciaparra, 1999-2000). Mauer finished the season with more walks (76) than strikeouts (63), a feat becoming even rarer in the modern game. Mauer finished one vote shy of being a unanimous MVP, with Miguel Cabrera, the fourth-place finisher, receiving the other first-place vote. New York’s Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter finished in second and third place. He was the second catcher in 33 years to win the AL MVP, and no catcher has finished first over the last 14 seasons. Mauer was a once-in-a-generation player, and his 2009 season was his magnum opus. What do you remember about Mauer’s MVP season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article