Planning a Perfect Wild Card Pitching Scenario for the Twins

We all know it isn't an ideal world and what looks good on paper rarely happens. It's a nice dream though. I'd be willing to bet that the nightmare of a 2 and out scenario is just as likely. I envision Rocco making at least 1 move that will cost them 1 of the games and the other game they'll struggle to score enough runs to win.... Probably the game that Gray pitches, which is the norm for this team when he's on the mound. In that case, the arms of Lopez, Gray and the bullpen won't matter.

After what I saw of Joe Ryan last night I'm of a mind to hand the ball to Baily Ober for game #3 (if needed).  Ryan looked good his first two starts once he was back, not so good in his next two.  Last night was, for me, his chance to show he deserves the #3 SP spot.  He failed.  I know it's Coors Field but 3 HR's and 6 runs in 5 innings does not inspire confidence. 

Give Ryan the role of 1-2 innings out of the pen and give the ball to Ober if there is a pivotal game #3 or start Ober in game #1 for the next series.  I like seeing Varland and Stewart in late game roles.  Stewart gave up 3 hits and had to have Theilbar bail him out, but none of the contact was hard.  He still looked good.  

Interesting article.  It all predicated of course on the players performing at that high level.  While it could happen, it could just as easily backfire.  Duran has been anything but lights out since the all star break.  He can be dominating of course and that's what we count on and hope for.  I'm hoping our starters pitch so well that Rocco let's them pitch at least 6 innings, maybe 7 if warranted.  But if Lopez and Gray aren't on their top game we are in trouble.  I'm hoping we break the playoff lising streak this year and perhaps even advance to the ALDS.  Go Twins

Ryan did not look that good. When you have two other choices for that 3rd spot it makes for a really tough decision as there is no longer any margin for error. I just hope the pitching plan is based on what is happening now not from an analytics plan derived over really large samples.   

Perfect scenario is to win it in 2, especially if Rocco is set that Ryan gets Game 3.

Lopez has actually fared better against batters when facing them for a third time, with an OPS over 100 points lower than the first or second time he sees a batter in a game. Even with his performance, it’s likely that Lopez will be asked to pitch through the fifth frame and then turn things over to the bullpen. 

I get the logic of shorter starts in the postseason, absolutely, but man... even if the bullpen looks better with recent reinforcements, I trust López and Gray more than a lot of the bullpen right now.

Obviously the actual in-game situation and how each pitcher looks on that day will determine the strategy more than anything, but I agree with the comment above—have a reliever warmed up but at least let López try to go six.

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Ryan did not look that good. When you have two other choices for that 3rd spot it makes for a really tough decision as there is no longer any margin for error. I just hope the pitching plan is based on what is happening now not from an analytics plan derived over really large samples.   

Maeda pitched 3.1 innings (13 batters, 62 pitches) on Thursday. He was "moved to the bullpen" for now, at least the rest of the regular season, but if he throws 1-2 innings (like a side session) in this Rockies series or if they hold him out of these games altogether, it seems like this routine would allow him to start again in game 3 if needed.

8 minutes ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

Maeda pitched 3.1 innings (13 batters, 62 pitches) on Thursday. He was "moved to the bullpen" for now, at least the rest of the regular season, but if he throws 1-2 innings (like a side session) in this Rockies series or if they hold him out of these games altogether, it seems like this routine would allow him to start again in game 3 if needed.

Rocco said exactly this on the post game show. The length he went in this game allows Maeda to continue to be stretched out and pitch either as a starter or reliever.

Dream on. Dream until your dreams come true.

Maybe this year.

Save the pen. Houston has good pitching even with injuries. I have to imagine it will be a close game and extras are possible.  López and Gray getting some length improves our odds.  

On 9/30/2023 at 8:11 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

After what I saw of Joe Ryan last night I'm of a mind to hand the ball to Baily Ober for game #3 (if needed).  Ryan looked good his first two starts once he was back, not so good in his next two.  Last night was, for me, his chance to show he deserves the #3 SP spot.  He failed.  I know it's Coors Field but 3 HR's and 6 runs in 5 innings does not inspire confidence. 

Give Ryan the role of 1-2 innings out of the pen and give the ball to Ober if there is a pivotal game #3 or start Ober in game #1 for the next series.  I like seeing Varland and Stewart in late game roles.  Stewart gave up 3 hits and had to have Theilbar bail him out, but none of the contact was hard.  He still looked good.  

I agree. Ryan has been horrendous and still hasn’t solved his homerun problems. We can’t have a pitcher who gives up bp fastball home runs. I’m still getting nightmares about all the postseason home runs and leads we’ve given up. Start a combination of Kenta/Ober in a potential game 3. 

Sure, lets yank our starters early like we did in 2020. That worked out well.