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PatPfund

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  1. PatPfund
    Great piece. Baseball has been dying a slow death (emphasis on SLOW) in the US for a long time. Fewer and fewer watch it (it was startling that the highest rated Series game was around FORTY years ago), and/or play it. Recently on KFAN, one of the morning drive time hosts was asked which sport Mookie Betts played, and he had no idea. On another day something brought up requests to the sports gods, and one host said something like 'honestly, I wish they'd just make the Twins go away.' I think the rule changes (which are not even close to the first ones designed to speed up the game; umpires originally didn't call balls and strikes, and right into the 20th Century, I don't believe foul balls were ever strikes) will help. But clearly baseball still has the juice to drum up electric crowds and games, and MLB will need to foster that, and channel it if the game is to have a future. Viva the WBC!
  2. PatPfund
    I think Castro will essentially replace Gordon's role (backup OF/IF), which might be a need because I think Gordon is the primary replacement for Polanco. We don't actually know if Castro's numbers are a mirage or a breakthrough (dude isn't even 26 yet, and got thrown into the deep end of the pool early in Detroit). Plus, he is fast (pinch runner in the ninth or when we need a late stolen base), and hits from either side. Then I think the team options him when Polanco is back, or after a month if Julien keeps raking (then he takes second, Gordon goes back to UT, and Castro goes to St Paul. Hoffman could make the team, but I could also see him be an early non-injury release.
  3. PatPfund
    Umm. This just in. Solano looks terrible. He's 35 and no longer has the range of somebody you'd want out there half/most days. He's had precisely two (out of 9 pro seasons) really good batting years by OPS+ standards; 2019 at 116, and the short year of 2020 at 127 (in neither did he appear in more than 81 games). His OPS+ last year was 97, and he is currently hitting .040 (1 for 25) in ST. Farmer's OPS+ last year was 90, but at least he can play defense to make up for it. I'd start Gordon agains all lefties, Farmer against RHs, and give Solano a chance to get into the mix (but if he isn't hitting by the end of March, you start the countdown clock for Julien and the cutdown clock for Solano). Willie Castro would be a good add until Polanco is ready (and if his knee is bad enough after 8-9 months that he's still limping, I doubt we are talking a few weeks). And Larnach for Kirilloff. (Gallo can play 1B, Larnach can DH/OF, and Castro can fill the Gordon UT role since he'll mostly be at 2B.) If it were me, I'd release Solano out of ST, sign him to a minor league deal when he clears waivers, or wave goodbye if he walks. Castro is 10 years younger, is likely to hit the same, hits from both sides, and plays more positions than Solano including OF.
  4. PatPfund
    Not likely all three? The Twins admit that Kirilloff is behind their recovery timeline for what they also called a last resort surgery (hence the article we are commenting on). Polanco has yet to appear in a game, and Gordon is set (according to Baldelli) to play a lot of 2B in the coming week. (Which appears to be both concern about Polanco, but also the best current plan, because Gordon is a better move than Solano there.) That leaves Buxton, who DID play yesterday against minor leaguers, and hopefully is healthy, though there is pretty much nothing in his history that says he will play over 100 games. And yeah, I can take platoon players and point out their deficiencies, because having to play them out of their 'platoon' strength situations is highly likely if two or all three 'missing' Twins remain out or limited. I'm not actually gloom and doom, because there do seem to be rays of hope from Gallo and Kepler this spring, and those two could pick up the offensive loss of Kirilloff, and cover for the drop of leaning on platoons. But until Solano hits, he just looks like a position player version of Joe Smith. I agree with you about the timing for Julien, and if Donnie doesn't start hitting some barrels, cutting Solano is how I'd make space for him.
  5. PatPfund
    There are two options on Kirilloff. A (hopefully) he is still in recovery from a fairly experimental surgery, and we might see him in a month or so. B (fearfully), the radical surgery, essentially deemed a 'last resort' by the Twins has failed, and Kirilloff will never play in the majors again. I don't expect either Alex or the team will give up without giving the young man every chance, but option B now looms, and certainly has to be planned for at this point. Most of the options here are frankly weak. On many days (especially if Polanco and/or Buxton are also limited) the Twins' order would have these below average 2022 OPS+ ratings: Gallo (79), Kepler (90), Farmer (90), Solano (97), Taylor (90). A couple of them playing DH and 1B where you are supposed to have premium bats. That is crossing your fingers for a whole lot of bounce-back seasons, or hoping your pitchers throw a LOT of shutouts. Larnach (if healthy) must be on the roster if Kirilloff is not, and he and Gordon need to play in front of Farmer and Solano. @TwinsDr2021 is absolutely correct in this, and in the alternatives (Wallner and Julien who clearly looks ready to hit MLB pitching). Frankly, if Solano doesn't hit better than his current spring average of .067, by the end of March he is the guy I'd cut to make room for a youngster. He's 35, coming off a down year, and a "utility" guy likely to play sub-par D at most of his positions without the bat to make up for it. Julien can do that and likely hit much better.
  6. PatPfund
    I'm glad for Gilberto that he'll get a chance to develop in the minors this year. I'm also glad for myself that I won't have to watch him in a Twins uniform. I get why he was jumped to the majors. I (and everyone else) saw he clearly was in over his head. Last year was disappointing because the Twins essentially did little prep for another Byron injury, and because Celestino was still clearly in over his head. His defense is okay, not great. He still struggles with fundamentals like where to throw the ball, and how to run bases. He gets the least out of his speed of any fast guy I've seen in recent times. And little of that is out of his control; he should have a better grip on the game by 24. Maybe he gets better, and earns his way back. Or maybe players like Martin, Lee, and Lewis, who are all better offensive threats, push Gilberto aside on their march to the majors (they can't all play infield), and he never makes it back to Mpls as his home field. I honestly don't know which it will be, but I'd lean a bit toward the last option. (If Martin has to have Tommy John surgery, that might be Gilberto's biggest break.)
  7. PatPfund
    The Twins are not an "ace" away from a title. And an "ace" is no guarantee of success; just look at your list, and see how few titles are held by those pitchers. Burnes is a great pitcher, but he is controllable for 2 years, and then is gone. How about we play the year, and see where we are at mid-season before we throw away assets we may need to actually get good. Maybe we'll find out we already have an ace on staff.
  8. PatPfund
    Agree strongly with @mikelink45. RP may be his better stuff, and there have been some flashes, but I'm not convinced Sands is MLB-quality at all, or maybe he is on a lower level team than I'd like the Twins to be. If Sands has a great spring, I'd totally be working the trade circuit for him.
  9. PatPfund
    The question you have at the top is really THE question. And we don't know the answer yet, and really won't without gameplay; a 14 inning cherry-picked stretch is a nice but very slender reed of encouragement. I also saw him strike out the side one inning last year, then get pulled after walking the bases full the next, and that wildness won't play long in high-leverage settings. I'm hoping he figured something out (trust him more than Megill and Pagán, but that is a super-low bar), but I'm also not holding my breath, and wouldn't be surprised to see him riding the Green Line a few times this summer.
  10. PatPfund
    In theory, I love Winder as a starting pitcher. He looked far better in that role last year than Bundy or Archer, but then the shoulder flared up again, and then again in the off-season. He may have a future as a starter, but right now the Twins are pretty deep in SPs, and Winder should try limited innings to both get and keep himself healthy for a season. He also really needs to be of use soon or the Twins are going to be forced to trade-low/waive/lose Winder before or during the next Rule 5 draft. So for this year, I'd try to build him as an RP, because there are a few iffy pieces in the 'pen (yeah, I'm looking at you Megill, Pagán, and Moran). (Dobnak could be a dark horse to supplant somebody as well.)
  11. PatPfund
    I got a big laugh out of the theme song, especially after the mini-cliffhanger 'di- ah- (where is he going?!?!) rees' (phew!). If Martin can field like that at 2nd on a regular basis, I'm very intrigued. I'm not coincidentally concerned about one of my favorite Twins, Polanco. After Buxton last year, I believe pretty much nothing the Twins say about injuries (Byron was clearly hurt all year, and the coverup did nothing but buy him crap from fans, and ended with him having surgery. On the knee that was hurt all year.) Given my decades of experience with balky body parts, if Polanco is still limited by his knee after almost enough time off to recover from ACL surgery, it reeks of an ongoing issue for the coming season. And despite his totally undeserved reputation for not getting hurt, Jorge has repeatedly been hurt (he just stayed off the IL), and the injuries have hobbled his output. We'll need a backup 2B, and Martin looks plausible. Miranda's shoulder is also concerning (especially if he is playing in the WBC), and having Farmer/Solano/Gordon to help might work after all. (Otherwise, it seems like we have one too many "Swiss Army Knives".
  12. PatPfund
    I try not to be a hater, but, yeah, I hate the new vague injury language. Larnach has a 'lower body injury' and that might indeed be concerning. A pulled hip flexor, a ruptured hamstring, a torn ACL, a fractured femur, a broken toe, a damaged Achilles, and a dislocated ankle could all be called 'lower body injuries'. So could a hangnail, bunyons, regular sore muscles, or a leg bruise. On the words/video front, I prefer words by far. But getting a few videos that give a little extra taste of Spring Training to my wintry eyes and ears is a nice addition.
  13. PatPfund
    I freakin' love the pitch clock, and really like that it has ended a game already. Don't want to see much of that in the regular season, so work it all out in Spring Training. But either way, it needs to be called for real now, and in the regular season, because the worst case scenario is umpires making up when they'll enforce the rules and when they will not. (I'm also going to laugh hard every time I hear a player getting pissy about the new rules. Absolute total payback for the frustration they've inflicted on all of the fans of the game in the past decade.) Other thoughts... A. It was really fun to watch baseball again, and Miranda looked great. B. Ryan looked fine (and also as if he was working on stuff, which is as it should be). C. Headrick was kinda dominant, and against a lot of starters; keep hearing about the pitching pipeline, and it's a good sign one of our AA pitchers looks this good this early. D. It was fun to see Julien and Lee in Twins' uniforms.
  14. PatPfund
    Hopefully this is just signing a professional arm to eat ST innings until either (most likely) the SPs have boosted their pitch counts, and/or (less likely) lightening strikes on the control front and the Twins uncover a hidden gem. Also hopefully they aren't counting on the latter. If mediocre early ST castoffs can walk on to our 26-man roster, our bullpen is officially a mess. (Which it isn't. Megill was bad today, but he's always been that way despite the velocity. Never really considered him or Moran to be the bullpen locks others have talked up, but I also think there are enough arms to push them off the roster if they can't find the plate.)
  15. PatPfund
    Baseball is hard. A couple overall #1s never made it to MLB. Prospects stall, and get hurt. We've definitely had our share, but in case this fuels some to think we should trade all prospects for 'sure thing' veterans, remember Kirby. Or Montas. Or Mahle (though I have hopes for this year). Given our budget realities (this just in: big market teams rake huge media coin, while the Twins TV broadcaster is due to declare bankruptcy), we need the core of our team to be younger, salary controllable players, and the best way to get those is to draft them (or be awful, and stock up at the trading deadline). So I'm focusing on the end-article optimism.
  16. PatPfund
    I'd say "no" to Lee/Raya for Burnes. Not because Burnes isn't good enough, but because the Twins haven't shown they are good enough yet, and Burnes won't likely fuel "a run" because he'll probably bolt via Free Agency. It's spring, and people are gaga with hope, but this team finished 14 games back in a weak division last year, two presumed starters (Kepler and Gallo) are coming off horrible years, the hoped-for middle order bats at the corners (Miranda and Kirilloff) have maybe a combined season of experience, and several SPs have both injury-recovery questions, and are on expiring contracts. As you say, mid-season is a better assessment time, but getting Burnes there would probably mean outbidding every playoff contender in baseball. I'd rather keep building this year, maybe win the division and a playoff game, and come back even better next year (very possibly with Lee in the lineup).
  17. PatPfund
    Nice to hear that Molitor is helping with the base-running. No doubt last year's debacle was magnified by all of the not-quite-ready-for-MLB players who cycled through the roster because of injuries, but their base-running reflected really badly on the organization, and frankly the major league staff (because Sano in his brief time, and Celestino across the season were two major culprits).
  18. PatPfund
    I'd assume Polanco backup; I hope for not much more than the minimum, and mostly as an innings eater in camp. But it doesn't do much for me. There are plenty of interesting players to get innings at 2nd in camp (Julien, Gordon, Farmer off the top of my head). The idea of keeping Solano instead of Gordon is pretty revolting. One is a first round pick still exploring his upside, the other is clearly sinking below Gordon's floor, plus Gordon is out of options, and would absolutely be claimed in waivers (he could start in the outfield for several teams such as the Tigers). Keeping him instead of Larnach isn't much better; plus this team needs to stop blocking its developing players with rusty junk from the salvage yard. The only way it makes sense is if they think Polanco might be on the IL at season's start. (Which I guess is possible if he's still gimping on it after 9 months.)
  19. PatPfund
    It is a worthy idea, but my guess is that Royce would rather play the season betting on himself, then maybe look into something similar afterward (but if his bet comes in, bigger annual numbers, and maybe no team options at the end, or the proverbial "mutual option" that never gets exercised).
  20. PatPfund
    Well... the Twins didn't really sit Buxton "when he was healthy" last year. He injured his knee early, then played hurt until they shut him down and he had knee surgery. To fix the knee he hurt months earlier. It would have been nice if they'd been more honest about it, and frankly it would have been nice if Buxton had gotten the surgery in May, and been recovered for the last 2-3 months of the year. But none of that happened. So, yeah, play him when he is healthy, but he wasn't most of last year. And... outside of getting hit on the hand by a pitch, most of Byron's injuries don't seem fluky. He runs faster than most humans on Earth, so he puts more stress on his joints, and when he hits the ground or walls diving or sliding, he hits a lot harder than other players. I hope he can stay healthy, or at least healthier, but I'm glad the Twins came up with a better backup plan than In-Over-His-Head Celestino.
  21. PatPfund
    If he isn't substantially better, he shouldn't go north with the team. I think Ober either makes the 5-man rotation, or goes to St Paul to stay in starter mode as the first call-up. But Winder's repeated shoulder issues as a starter may mean the Twins try him in relief, and he'd be far better than we've seen from Megill. If Alcala looks healthy this spring, I'd be trying to flip Megill to a KC/Detroit type team for a prospect.
  22. PatPfund
    I think they have the makings of a solid 'pen if it isn't overused. But it seems the rose-colored glasses might have been worn too much here, though. Thielbar had a great (fabulous) second half, but the first half was pretty rough (he entered July with an ERA over 5, and no it wasn't all April), and he's in the back half of his 30s. Trevor Megill may have been unlucky, or he just might be one of the pitchers whose FIP (which is a bit of analytics more than a real stat) never syncs up with his ERA. Griffin Jax was prone to getting thumped when overused. But I guess what I like about the 'pen and the whole pitching staff is that they are far deeper in the rotation, and that means more quality arms pushed back to help elsewhere, because at least two of the pitchers you mention are likely to melt down at some point or get hurt, or both. And probably more than two. But the help in St Paul should be much better than recent years.
  23. PatPfund
    Your bullpen is super heavy on arms tossing mostly one (maybe two) innings. Winder is flat out better than Megill, and he can go three to five twice a week with no sweat while letting Ober stay stretched out in the minors. I'd also be surprised if Moran sticks in the majors most of the year. He is totally a whiff three one inning/walk four the next. (I'm glad we have options this year.)
  24. PatPfund
    I think the rotation actually makes the bullpen stronger in two ways. One you covered (more starter innings means fewer 'pen innings meaning fresher arms). The other is that really good arms that were filling starting last year are potential bullpen material. Winder and Ober are actually good, and if they aren't starting, they probably can be better than Griffen Jax was last year (and that was pretty great when he wasn't over-used).
  25. PatPfund
    I like Caleb, and love his story. But... ...he didn't have a great season last year; he had a phenomenal 2nd half of the season. You have a tweet with the post-July stats, but in April (really awful), May (very good), and June (pretty bad), Caleb pitched 29 innings, walked 13, gave up 26 hits, and 17 runs for a mediocre 1.34 WHIP, and an ERA over 5. It was clear either he or Duffey had to go to make room for new pitching, and the Twins definitely made the right call, but it wasn't obvious. Short of injury, Thielbar might be the most 'counted on' Twin to falter big time; he operates on a thin margin, and age comes for all athletes at some point. (But I'm hoping 'that point' isn't this year.)
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