PatPfund

Nice to hear that Molitor is helping with the base-running. No doubt last year's debacle was magnified by all of the not-quite-ready-for-MLB players who cycled through the roster because of injuries, but their base-running reflected really badly on the organization, and frankly the major league staff (because Sano in his brief time, and Celestino across the season were two major culprits).

I'd assume Polanco backup; I hope for not much more than the minimum, and mostly as an innings eater in camp. But it doesn't do much for me. There are plenty of interesting players to get innings at 2nd in camp (Julien, Gordon, Farmer off the top of my head). The idea of keeping Solano instead of Gordon is pretty revolting. One is a first round pick still exploring his upside, the other is clearly sinking below Gordon's floor, plus Gordon is out of options, and would absolutely be claimed in waivers (he could start in the outfield for several teams such as the Tigers). Keeping him instead of Larnach isn't much better; plus this team needs to stop blocking its developing players with rusty junk from the salvage yard. The only way it makes sense is if they think Polanco might be on the IL at season's start. (Which I guess is possible if he's still gimping on it after 9 months.)

It is a worthy idea, but my guess is that Royce would rather play the season betting on himself, then maybe look into something similar afterward (but if his bet comes in, bigger annual numbers, and maybe no team options at the end, or the proverbial "mutual option" that never gets exercised).

Well... the Twins didn't really sit Buxton "when he was healthy" last year. He injured his knee early, then played hurt until they shut him down and he had knee surgery. To fix the knee he hurt months earlier. It would have been nice if they'd been more honest about it, and frankly it would have been nice if Buxton had gotten the surgery in May, and been recovered for the last 2-3 months of the year. But none of that happened. So, yeah, play him when he is healthy, but he wasn't most of last year. And... outside of getting hit on the hand by a pitch, most of Byron's injuries don't seem fluky. He runs faster than most humans on Earth, so he puts more stress on his joints, and when he hits the ground or walls diving or sliding, he hits a lot harder than other players. I hope he can stay healthy, or at least healthier, but I'm glad the Twins came up with a better backup plan than In-Over-His-Head Celestino.

If he isn't substantially better, he shouldn't go north with the team. I think Ober either makes the 5-man rotation, or goes to St Paul to stay in starter mode as the first call-up. But Winder's repeated shoulder issues as a starter may mean the Twins try him in relief, and he'd be far better than we've seen from Megill. If Alcala looks healthy this spring, I'd be trying to flip Megill to a KC/Detroit type team for a prospect.

I think they have the makings of a solid 'pen if it isn't overused. But it seems the rose-colored glasses might have been worn too much here, though. Thielbar had a great (fabulous) second half, but the first half was pretty rough (he entered July with an ERA over 5, and no it wasn't all April), and he's in the back half of his 30s. Trevor Megill may have been unlucky, or he just might be one of the pitchers whose FIP (which is a bit of analytics more than a real stat) never syncs up with his ERA. Griffin Jax was prone to getting thumped when overused. But I guess what I like about the 'pen and the whole pitching staff is that they are far deeper in the rotation, and that means more quality arms pushed back to help elsewhere, because at least two of the pitchers you mention are likely to melt down at some point or get hurt, or both. And probably more than two. But the help in St Paul should be much better than recent years.

Your bullpen is super heavy on arms tossing mostly one (maybe two) innings. Winder is flat out better than Megill, and he can go three to five twice a week with no sweat while letting Ober stay stretched out in the minors. I'd also be surprised if Moran sticks in the majors most of the year. He is totally a whiff three one inning/walk four the next. (I'm glad we have options this year.)

I think the rotation actually makes the bullpen stronger in two ways. One you covered (more starter innings means fewer 'pen innings meaning fresher arms). The other is that really good arms that were filling starting last year are potential bullpen material. Winder and Ober are actually good, and if they aren't starting, they probably can be better than Griffen Jax was last year (and that was pretty great when he wasn't over-used).

I like Caleb, and love his story. But... ...he didn't have a great season last year; he had a phenomenal 2nd half of the season. You have a tweet with the post-July stats, but in April (really awful), May (very good), and June (pretty bad), Caleb pitched 29 innings, walked 13, gave up 26 hits, and 17 runs for a mediocre 1.34 WHIP, and an ERA over 5. It was clear either he or Duffey had to go to make room for new pitching, and the Twins definitely made the right call, but it wasn't obvious. Short of injury, Thielbar might be the most 'counted on' Twin to falter big time; he operates on a thin margin, and age comes for all athletes at some point. (But I'm hoping 'that point' isn't this year.)

I've read stuff from this writer that I liked, but this seems a hot mess. Were the 2019 Twins over-rated? By whom? What was this over-rating? The team won 101 games. 101 games. They beat up on their division, but to win 101 you also have to beat other good teams, and they did. Like many other good teams they faltered in the playoffs (and like many who falter they didn't have great pitching and stopped hitting in the clutch). Then there is the weird 'sustained' tangent, which frankly makes no sense to the argument of rating a specific season's team. (Also very little sense in context of baseball history; the '91 Twins followed a last place team, won it all, then quickly devolved into a lost decade. Does that make the '91 team over-rated?) It also has almost zero internal logic since as pointed out, many of the part-timers were not even contributing in the end, and frankly were tangential to the whole Bomba thing anyway. Of all of the 'one year' players, only Cruz (who wasn't actually a one-year player since he had a team option) hit over 30 HR. The other four who hit 30+ were all young Twins' regulars (Sanó, Rosario, Garver, Kepler). That is "sustainable" by any stretch of the imagination unless the young players all regressed (which, sadly, they did, though Rosario had his Series moments winning a title elsewhere). The problem here isn't fans being blinded by nostalgia, but a writer using hindsight to tell us a talented team (with inadequate pitching) didn't win the title, and didn't last. I'm pretty sure we all knew that before reading this. But regardless of the article, the 2019 Twins WERE one of the most serious contending teams of recent history, and one of the best regular season teams in the franchise's history with the strongest of all stats to back it up. Wins. 101 of them.

This is the sort of article that makes me LONG for players to report to spring training (along with the stuff about how players will fit in team history or how this season's team fits in team history when we haven't seen a live pitch yet). But... ... to dispute the article, you cannot look up meaningful information on Miranda's defense at 1st or 3rd in MLB (on Google or anywhere else), because he has only played a fraction of a season; his rookie season being put in a fairly new position most of the time, and filling in occasionally at third. His minor league history shows he might be a decent if not great defender; it for sure shows he can excel at the plate playing third (see his 2021 batting stats). If you want to get all metric, don't forget that most defensive metrics rated Gio well below average. Plus, this just in, players often get better as they gain experience. Every spring training (at least in my lifetime) features stories about players who worked on their diets and fitness routines to get better, stronger, and have the ability to maintain performance through the year. Actual performance varies, and until we see Miranda playing we won't know if a) it is true, b) it hurts/helps, or c) we can't be sure. But we can at least know that Miranda himself was worried about wearing down last year (borne out statistically), and (maybe) has done something about it. Most elite athletes at some point realize they have to take care of themselves to max out, so I see this as promising until there is evidence to the contrary. (Correa may be setting the example here as Cruz did before, and both of those players did/are doing pretty well with a better diet and workout regime.) I loved Gio, but he is gone, and I get the strategy, especially with Correa signed. We have a multitude of top prospects who right now play infield, are already or soon will be on the 40-man, and therefore need to be final-polished/played/written down/traded. And having solid, but at their ceiling infield veterans blocking them starts to be a hindrance. (I feel the same about Gallo if he just plays career average this year.)

I generally like your lineups, though I'd bat Polanco 1st since (if healthy) he'd likely force more pitches early, and be a base stealing threat (pretty sure Byron is going to be grounded, and Carlos doesn't run any more). You probably have the middle okay, but if Kirilloff is playing, he probably is healthy and will force his way past Gallo and Kepler, and even early I'd never bat him below Jeffers (even against a righty).

One upside to the depth (especially if the players perform and stay healthy) is that it may set us up for an interesting trade deadline. But first we have to stay healthy and perform so we aren't just selling for the future in July.

The two are not ‘carbon copies’ at all. (see last year stats from baseball-reference below) Michael Taylor is a below average hitter, Gilberto is worse. Worse average, lower counting stats, a quarter of the HR, lower OPS+, and sadly an often faulty baseball IQ. Defensively they are not even close. Michael A Taylor is one of the very top CFs in baseball. Period. Celestino has some physical skills often negated by foolish plays in the field and on the bases. Some excel when called up early from the minors, Celestino did not, and needs more AAA development at the very least. And if he doesn’t shape up quickly, I can see him being bypassed as soon as this year by Martin, Lewis, and maybe Lee. Michael A Taylor World Series title, past Gold Glove winner, leads all OF in defensive runs save over the last 3 seasons. 2022 line from baseball-reference.com 3.2 WAR, .254 avg, 9 HR, 49 R, 43 RBI, 90 OPS+ Gilberto Celestino No Gold Gloves, sometimes not sure where to throw ball 2022 line from baseball-reference.com .3 WAR, .238 avg, 2 HR, 30 R, 24 RBI, 80 OPS+

Enough with the ace pitching. Nobody is dealing an ace this close to the season (especially not for some of the "offers" suggested here). I like much of what has happened in the off-season, but the Gallo signing left the team with too many LH hitting OFs (none of whom show signs yet of being able to hit .240 and stay healthy other than Gordon), and the bullpen still feels light (short a Fulmer, maybe?). If we are making any moves I'd rather we thin the OF crop, and add a good pitcher for Rocco to overuse in the 6th and 7th innings. And reassess in late May to possibly add what the team needs. Because until this team shows otherwise, it is not an "ace" away from winning it all, and if Kirilloff, Larnach, Polanco, Kepler, Gallo, Buxton, etc don't either step up or stay healthy or both the team is as likely to be sellers as they are to be buyers in July.

I'm probably not as down on the team as @mikelink45, but probably like him, I'd rather see some actual regular season games played (like 100+ of them) before I'm taking seriously any comparison to past teams that have played a full year. We probably haven't even the last of the trades (no way the Twins should be carrying this many OFs on the 40-man, and please, can we sign Fulmer before we have to trade another prospect for him at the deadline?), which might be a better preseason topic than a 'retrospective' comparison of the unplayed '23 season to years past.

AJ Alexy was DFA'd to clear a 40 man spot. It cracks me up a bit to hear Taylor compared to Celestino. One has a World Series ring, a Gold Glove, and leads the majors in CF defensive runs saved over the last three seasons. The other is a raw in-over-his-head player whose hitting pales even to 'light-hitting' Michael Taylor, and whose sometimes passable defense is often wrecked by his trouble remembering how many outs there are, or where he should throw the ball. (Not to mention the dreadful base-running.) Not sure Gilberto will ever be ready for MLB, but for sure he needs a chance to develop his game in St Paul, and both he and the Twins will be better for it. Taylor will be great in the field, and as electric wheels coming off the bench. Solid move.

I get the attraction of a new name, but one of the reasons I think Luis was a potential trade asset was to open space with a glut of potential bats on the horizon (some of whom might displace Miranda at 3b, namely Lewis or Lee). Adding somebody in this slot is akin to signing Wacha or another end-of-career person who keeps ready players from stepping up (hitting on the one hand, pitching on the other). This shifts a bit if they move Kepler (which won't bring back an MLB player, but opens an OF slot (for a prospect if not a signee like Profar), but I'd rather they sign Fulmer to bolster the 'pen, and start the year with internal hitting options.

Rocco was given the pitching staff, but handling them has never been a strong point as even he would admit (he leaned HEAVILY on our departed pitching coach there). He needs to learn how to use long relievers better instead of using the SP for 5 followed by 4 RPs. Base-running (as many have pointed out) is coached as a fundamental by the coaching staff which Rocco runs. We have 5000 assistants, it would be nice if one focused on base-running if that isn't Rocco's deal (you didn't see this sort of mess from Kelly or Molitor teams). But it is also worth noting that the injury roster churn had a number of MiLB players playing in the bigs, and that was where a lot of the problem lay. We need better base-running coaches at AA and AAA as well. Miranda was solid at 3B in the minors; I expect he'll be fine there (and hit better than alternatives) if you stop bouncing him around position-wise. Polanco (formerly solid) was pretty dim on D last year. He'll need to clean that up and stay healthy or the infield prospects coming up (particularly Lee and Lewis) are going to force a change within this season.

Yeah.... but no. We have the reigning AL batting champion at 1B (knees kept healthier by playing 1B). We have (if early reports are true) Alex Kirilloff swinging pain-free for the first time in two years. We have an aging 2B in Polanco whose bat might still play there (and keep his legs healthier). We have several top-hitting prospects (like Lewis and Lee) who list at SS, but could play as well at 2B or 3B (possibly displacing Miranda and/or Polanco who could shift ABs to 1B). We have a plethora of tall corner OFs (Larnach, Wallner, etc) whose bats may push them to the MLB team, and whose defense or opportunities might shift them to 1B. There is no way I want an 30 y.o. over-the-hill, vaguely motivated player who doesn't take coaching blocking the path of any of that development (some of which should be happening at St Paul). Whatever future Sano has in baseball (and I don't think much will be at the MLB level), it probably is best for him to start it in a different organization.

Celestino really isn't a tough one to figure out. He was jumped over AAA for emergency reasons, and he plays like it, so send him to AAA and find out if he can develop. If somebody asks for him in a trade, and you can get a useful return, sprain ankles jumping on it, but I'm not holding my breath. (Gallo and Kepler can both play better defense to backup Buxton.) Kepler has little trade value, plays great defense, and really isn't worse offensively than most of the OFs mentioned here (low bar until the youngsters prove something). I'd rather have most of the youth (other than Gordon and a healthy Kirilloff, if he IS healthy) start in the minors. And force their way to the majors the old fashion way. (And if Max starts to hit more with the shift gone and increase his in-season trade value, I'd love that.) Having the younger set catch fire, and actually create a problem would be fabulous, because until they do our problem in the OF (other than Byron staying healthy) is quality, not quantity. And trades would just be ditching quantity since they are all discount bin material. (If you want a real return, you would need to trade something really valued like Polanco or Arraez or Miranda or Brooks Lee. Or pitching. And I don't want to go there yet.)

Lots of future prospects to watch, but I'd love Martin to show well at the plate, and hopefully get lots of work in the OF. His on-base skills and athletic ability are far beyond so-called RH "bats" Celestino or Garlick. And he certainly can't be stupider on the playing field than Gilberto. If they stop trying to force power from him, Martin is a potential run-scoring/base-stealing offensive piece to add to a lineup that needs (especially RH) offense badly.

Good preview, though as others have noted, Josh Winder is on the 40-man, and should (IMO) be on the 26-man roster ahead of Megill and Pagan to name a couple (Moran as well if he has control issues again). If Rocco ever figures out how to use a long RP, he'd also be my first pick to fill an open rotation spot. Celestino's bat and baseball IQ are not MLB-ready. Again as noted in the comments, Gallo and/or Kepler can play CF, so Celestino should start in St Paul. In all honesty, if I were the Twins, Celestino and Farmer would be pieces to shop with now, or in-season (maybe they can pry away a useful arm from Boston; they need a SS and OF depth).

Offer Correa $35 million a year for two years and he can opt out after next season (which essentially allows him a do-over on this year's opt out). It would be the highest AAV offer he's seen, and allow him to bet again on himself if he wants to opt out after 2023. Carlos gets another short-term answer, the Twins get an impact bat (having let more cost-effective ones at other positions) that can play (for now) great defense. I doubt he takes the offer, but the Twins will at least have put the best offer (in AAV) on the table. If he walks, I'm fine with that, because in three years he will likely be starting the downside of his career. Shortstops don't generally age well; at Correa's age Andrelton Simmons was the best SS glove in the game, at 32 he may be headed out of baseball. Troy Tulowitzki had his last season above 1 WAR at 31, and was out of baseball three injury-wrecked seasons later. Nomar Garciaparra was fabulous. Until he turned 29; over the next 5 years he accumulated a total of about 3 WAR (or less than a game better than Replacement per year, and two were below Replacement (and he was out of baseball at 35). Sure, there are taller SS examples with longer careers like Ripken and Jeter, but Correa's probably already missed more games that either (possibly both combined), and he has that plate in his leg. My guess is that his leg is healthy short term, but the book on a bolted together bone gets statistically grim in the 30s (and as the Strib or Athletic pointed out, the bat doesn't really play for that money without the elite SS defense). If he goes long term someone else should make that mistake. (Also, the assumption that salaries will always rise is pretty dicey given baseball's falling ratings and aging fan-base. That will have serious media revenue bite in the coming years.)

I laughed hard at this one. Like a Randballs Stu post! Gilberto mixes some physical ability to defend with a bat that does not look MLB-ready, and frankly some of the stupidest plays I've seen recently in the majors. Playing him in the minors isn't a luxury, it is the only chance he has to figure it out. (Or maybe the Twins can put a radio in his cap to tell him how many outs there are before every pitch.) Kepler and Gallo are both better options to backup Buxton (better defenders right now, and despite their issues, both better at the plate). If Celestino has trade value, the Twins should cash in on it; if Gilberto gets 80 starts for the team this year, it probably means another OF meltdown, and another lost season. Maybe someday he gets better, but he should do it in St Paul first.