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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    The thing that you always have to keep in mind is that to get talent in a trade, you also have to give it up. You can't throw around names like Sabato & Cavaco and expect to get MLB talent; despite their high draft status, these are players that are near busts. I don't think the Twins want to get rid of Arraez, but he's a player that has a good value (proven MLB hitter, can play multiple positions even if he's only strong at 1, under team control) and his best positions are areas where the Twins look to have some depth, either on the MLB roster or coming up in the system. (Kirilloff, Miranda, and Gallo are all options to play 1B...so is Kepler, frankly. Julien might end up there too. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis are all likely better options defensively at 2B and Polanco is still properly ensconced there.) So it's a bit of a matter of trading from a position of strength. Arraez's greatest strength as a hitter is in his contact skills and he'll work a walk without complaint so he gets on base plenty. but there are questions about whether he's got any more power potential in his bat, and if his slugging is basically maxed out then his ceiling as a hitter will struggle to get much higher. He's also seriously limited against LHP. there's real value in having a player that doesn't whiff, gets hits, and gets on base at a good clip, but when it's mostly singles it also limits you. I love Arraez as a Twin, and would hate to see him go. But if he's part of a deal to substantially improve the rotation? I think that's a reasonable thing to consider. I wouldn't move him for depth, and I doubt I would move him for prospects...and I don't think that's what the front office is interested in either.
  2. jmlease1
    McCutchen might have made some sense, but he also might be completely cooked. He's not really very good in the OF any longer and hoping for a bounceback season at age 36 is a fairly high risk. The stat of how he played after June 1 isn't all that compelling; he wasn't bad, but an OPS around .750 isn't exactly impressive. He's mashed lefties over his career and that's where the fit comes in, but I dunno how badly we needed him. More like a nice to have, if the team moves an OF. While I didn't love the Gallo move and I still think it's probably not a great move unless they do something to rebalance the OF a bit, historically Gallo is pretty neutral on his splits and doesn't have to be shielded against lefties the way guys like Kepler do.
  3. jmlease1
    I think another year will help, especially since I think Correa is definitely a player who really thinks about positioning and tries to get an advantage there. It will be interesting to see how he works with Miranda this season, since I expect Miranda to be there fairly consistently. (Miranda is not a great defender, but i do think he can improve at 3B, especially if he plays there consistently, without having to try and learn 1B, and I'm fairly certain that Correa will be working with him and pushing him) Less movement with the changes on shifting might be a benefit to Correa? regardless, I'm very comfortable with him captaining the infield defense. Polanco can be very good defensively at 2B, Arraez was surprisingly excellent at 1B (even if he's kinda short) and Kirilloff has the tools to be excellent there too. Farmer will be a quality defensive replacement at SS, 2B, or 3B which we didn't necessarily have last season. Right now Miranda is the weakest link.
  4. jmlease1
    I think it's pretty unlikely that he'd come back here on a minor league deal. Pride will almost certainly get in the way, even if it might be a good idea. (I suspect someone will still offer him an MLB deal at least at league minimum) I think we just need to move on from Sano. Even if we brought him back, he'd be looked at to be a part-time player, and Sano isn't actually a guy who has real splits. he thumps righties and lefties about the same over his career, and in signing him you'd be hoping he gets back to career norms. He's got a rough injury history at this point, plays 1B poorly and we don't need/want a full-time DH. The MLB roster is pretty tight, the 40-man is pretty tight, and pride will prevent him from signing a minor league deal. Time to move on. And while sano never hit the heights that were predicted for him, he had multiple years as a productive MLB player for the twins, gave us many highlight reel moonshot HRs (my goodness, he hit some bombs...and some lasers! the moonshots were always the more impressive, probably because you had more time to admire them, but it was also pretty fun when he hit a laser shot that never got more than 20 ft off the ground into the seat too...), and in the end provided more value to the team than we spent on him. He wasn't a bad player, just an inconsistent, incomplete, and injured one.
  5. jmlease1
    I think this is fair. After seeing things coming out of NY on Sanchez, I was expecting him to be really dreadful behind the plate. So while he wasn't great back there, I think he would have been acceptable if his hitting had come back around and ticked up a bit from 2021. instead he fell off further at the plate, and if he's not slugging then he's just not that good of a player. Vazquez has pretty good odds of turning in roughly the same offensive performance (not great, but fine for a catcher) with significantly better defense. Was hoping for a better bounce from sanchez, and really thought getting him out of NY was going to help. he certainly seemed happier? he also seems like a good dude, so hopefully he lands somewhere where they can work with his swing and get him back on track a bit.
  6. jmlease1
    I think part of the question is what are you comparing the Twins to when you ask if they've improved this winter. If it's against opening day from last year it's an interesting question: do you include the deadline deals or not? Re-signing Correa doesn't improve the team from last opening day, of course, but having Mahle & Lopez certainly do...but weren't brought in over the winter. If you're comparing it to where the Twins were at the end of the season, then you don't get any better by re-signing Correa...but having healthy players again certainly improves the team a heck of a lot. Vazquez looks like an upgrade over Sanchez; Gary really struggled at the plate (in comparison to where he was hoped to be) and while I don't expect much more from Vazquez the defense will almost certainly be quite a bit better. Farmer over Urshela? Kinda feels like a push, but gives the infield better balance, as Farmer is much more capable at SS than Urshela. Gio's a better hitter, but is sliding down the defensive scale. Gallo...who knows with Gallo. potentially better than Kepler? Probably better than Larnach or Kirilloff's production last year at the plate, but might not be better at the plate than either. Will be better defensively. Getting Maeda back could be significant, but wasn't exactly a winter move...he just got healthy like a lot of guys and is available again. This was a playoff team last season before the injuries wrecked the squad. We were playing our 10th choice in the OF towards the end of the season and except for Wallner weren't even playing prospects out there. This team looks better than last year's opening day squad (fewer questions in the bullpen, deeper rotation, similar lineup) and is definitely better than the squad we had at the end of the year where they fell apart after leading the division for much of the year.
  7. jmlease1
    It was about the money and it was about the years. Correa didn't want to do the free agent dance again (most players do not enjoy the process, which is understandable), so the length of the deal mattered. The money certainly mattered, and we weren't talking about $5-10M (which is still significant) but $65M with the Giants deal and then $30M for the original Mets deal. Yes, he wants to play in a competitive situation (which in fact he has with the Twins; healthy, this is a playoff team and was last season as well) but he was trying to make this his last contract as well, which meant getting long years and maximizing the dollars. Correa was perfectly happy to come back here, but wasn't going to take a discount. It's fairly clear that he had preferences on which teams he wanted to go to, and the Twins were on that list. You can't make this a binary where if didn't immediately go with the Twins it means he doesn't want to be here, it's just not that simple. Being happy to go somewhere else (for much bigger money and more years) doesn't mean he wasn't happy to come back here, he can have multiple places he'd be happy to land.
  8. jmlease1
    If there's no movement, I think the 5 end up being Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Gordon, and Kirilloff...which is a bit out of balance. But Gordon can back up CF and play other positions, played well last year and showed what he could do as a hitter, and is out of options. Kirilloff gives support at 1B and if a superior hitter if healthy. Gallo & Kepler are guarantees if on the roster. Larnach & Wallner have options, and Wallner still has things to prove (he's a poor defender and his contact rates are still worrisome). Larnach has less to prove to me, but he does need to show he's healthy. Celestino needs to show he can hit enough to be a 4th OF, and needs a little more maturity. The MLB roster needs another RH bat who can play in the corners, which is why a Kepler move makes so much sense. But they can proceed as is without losing anyone.
  9. jmlease1
    UGH. I hate keeping him. I get not wanting to let him go for nothing, but they had offers for him and IMHO they should have taken one of them. Whatever he might be able to add, he subtracts too much in fan PTSD. And frankly unless the Twins somehow unlock something they weren't able to do last season...he's just not that good. He's the definition of a fungible reliever, a guy whose raw stuff doesn't generate enough results. Feels a little like the front office is trying to prove something here, and that rarely works out well for any front office ever.
  10. jmlease1
    Sisk's control is fairly dreadful still and last season was the first year he was able to limit baserunners to a reasonable level. He also started last season in AA, so considering where he was at with his pitching I can understand why the Twins weren't prepared to have him jump multiple levels last season to make his MLB debut. The talent is there if he can find the strike zone a little more consistently. The spring training invite makes sense.
  11. jmlease1
    He looks more cooked than McCutchen, unfortunately. Was pretty bad last season, struggled in the half season after leaving MN for TB the year before, can only play DH...$1M isn't much risk, but the Twins don't really have the roster spots and the upside seems low. McCutchen would have been a reasonable fit, but also might not have that much left in the tank. I do think he's got more than Cruz and can still play the field.
  12. jmlease1
    I think this is a smart move. Even with the injuries, this is still likely a bit below market rate on arbitration, and assuming Paddack comes back reasonably well off the TJ it's well below market for the free agency year. A good compromise for the injury rehab that cost him most of last season and likely most if not all of this year. Paddack has talent and it's worth the gamble, especially at this money. He could be a very good fit next season as a rotation piece, and might be an option late this season, depending on how his rehab goes and what the Twins need for the rotation based on other pitcher's success or health. Good move for both parties: Paddack gets insurance/guarantees after a significant injury, the Twins get a discount for paying his rehab. They were always going to pay the arbitration number this year anyways.
  13. jmlease1
    I can't help it, I love pitchers with a filthy changeup. And boy does Moran have one! A little wildness is survivable for relievers when they can hunt Ks like Moran can. But he can't totally have it fall apart.
  14. jmlease1
    SS has not been a position of real strength for this franchise. After Versalles, Gagne, and Smalley it falls off pretty quickly. We've churned a lot of players through looking for a long-term solution, and made some bad choices over the years (i.e., dumping JJ Hardy after one season). Correa's performance last season was already one of the better single season efforts and if he lives up to his contract (mostly) over the next 6 seasons, he'll be the best SS in franchise history. Smalley is a bit underrated still as a player; during his first stint as a Twin he provided quality defense with better hitting than was really appreciated at the time from the position. But at the end of the day he only spent 6 years with the Twins as a SS, with 2 all-star quality seasons. Correa already has 1. Gagne had 8 seasons at SS for the Twins, 5 of them were quality, but never had the peaks because of his inability to take walks and get on base. A fine defender, but not a good hitter. The odds are good that Correa will go down as the best SS in Twins history if he's able to stick at the position for at least 4 more seasons.
  15. jmlease1
    Stashing a quality reserve in AAA because teams won't want to pay the extra $300K on his salary? While I think the Twins are imbalanced in their OF right now and management needs to make some moves to adjust it, I do think the front office has an interesting and creative strategy for stashing those borderline MLB players who can make good backup options/injury insurance at AAA by paying them higher salaries. Minor leagues can be tough for players...but it's not so rough for a player when they're making $750K, get to play in the same metro area as the MLB club so when they're called up they don't have to move, and get to keep playing baseball for a living. In context that extra money isn't that impactful on the overall payroll for the team, but it can keep a player available after their options would have been exhausted. Clever way of being able to functionally get an extra option year with a little guaranteed money to fence off other teams.
  16. jmlease1
    There's been multiple posts in here about the front office "getting lucky", not giving them credit for having Correa land in their laps etc. It seems to boil down to if you already didn't like the front office, don't like the style of baseball, and/or refer to management running things via spreadsheet, then they get no credit or approbation for signing Correa. The offseason wasn't saved. It's all still terrible. That's pretty muddled thinking to me.
  17. jmlease1
    Eddie Rosario has never scored 100 runs in a season. Now, that's not really a knock on eddie; it's very difficult to do. in 2022 only 10 players in all of baseball hit that number. (BTW, Carlos Correa accomplished it in 2021). The last Twin to do so was Jorge Polanco in 2019. yes, you need situational hitting to help it along, but you also need players that are healthy all year. The idea that Rocco doesn't know what his players are capable and doesn't put them in winning situations of is fairly silly, especially in the context of a desire to play more "small ball". The roster of players we have are not suited for it. Luis Arraez has excellent contact skills, but his terrible knees make him a poor baserunner that shouldn't be trying to steal bases. Polanco, Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach, Kirilloff, Garlick, Sanchez, Sano...these are not base-stealers. By not asking them to do things that they're not good at, Rocco is trying to maximize their success.
  18. jmlease1
    ooh! ooh! Someone referred to Rocco as a computer! that's like, BINGO, right?
  19. jmlease1
    I was one of the people leading the charge for the Twins to sign Story a year ago. Shows what I know. And a reminder that you never know who is going to stay healthy. People were talking up concerns with Correa's back, but it wasn't a problem for him last season; Story spend a good chunk of time on the IL and now is having a significant surgery. (It's also hilarious watching East Coast media backpedal on Correa now that he's with a midwest team. They've now discovered "sources" that practically have Correa in traction every day to get ready for games...)
  20. jmlease1
    It absolutely doesn't matter how we got here, only that we made it. We weren't Correa's first choice last season either; he was aiming for a big, long-term deal (and likely in a big market). He didn't treat us like a consolation prize last season and was a great player for us. He's here. He's our guy now. That's all that matters. I hope he crushes it, stays healthy, wins an MVP and leads us to a title and plays for us for the full 10. I hope he's legend--wait for it--dary. I hope he plays so well that he's a first-ballot Hall of Famer and goes in wearing a Twins cap. Looking forward to it. Loved watching him play this year. Thrilled he's back, and I don't care how weird it got in getting him. It just doesn't matter. We got a great player, and I think he's going to play great for us.
  21. jmlease1
    my goodness, it's actually a done deal! Love it. I'm also enjoying the saltiness from Mets fans as they pretend they never wanted him in the first place, somehow dodged a bullet, they never would have done this deal, etc. What a bunch of lying clowns. I'm thrilled with this. The team is taking a big swing here, and I love that. Eventually you have to take a shot, and Correa is the kind of guy that's worth going all in on. Maybe he gets hurt, but that risk is always out there. The upside is having an MVP-caliber player in your lineup every day at a position you haven't filled well for a long time. Let's gooooooooooo!
  22. jmlease1
    he played 30 games there in 2022. (he'd barely played 1B his whole career before being asked to jump in there for the twins in 2022) Maybe give him a chance before consigning him to DH. Trevor Plouffe started out so poorly at 3rd he described himself as having winning an Iron Glove. Corey Koskie had stretches early on where it looked like he was using a frying pan instead of a glove. both turned out pretty well over there.
  23. jmlease1
    Miranda is going to be given every opportunity to play 3B, he's played is acceptably in the minors and wasn't dreadful so far in MLB. There's basically no way Farmer starts at 3B unless Miranda becomes unplayable there and so far he's not. Garlick almost has to slip on to the roster somewhere (replace Celestino; between Gordon, Gallo, and Kepler there's enough options when Buxton gets a rest and Celestino can come up if Buxton goes to the IL) right now. We still need his RH bat availability. Gordon is out of options I think and played well enough last season that he has to make the Opening Day roster or be traded.
  24. jmlease1
    I think the issue with the ankle has a lot more to do with how the Giants & Mets were planning to stretch the cost of this contract over longer periods of time. They probably weren't any more worried about it in the short term than anyone, but had more serious questions about whether this would keep him off the field consistently when he turned 36-38. It's one thing to look at 1-2 years or dead money (although I think these teams that are doing these 11-14 year deals are convincing themselves that they'll beat the odds and have productive players into their 40's) and another to be thinking they're looking at 3-4 years or dead money. Because you can't count on a player to retire and forfeit the last years of a deal, especially when the injury is something chronic and there are ways to get yourself back on the field.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm a big fan of Torii Hunter as a player, and he was one of the more exciting players in Twins history. But for me, he falls short of Hall of Fame. I'm not militant about small hall v big hall, and I think there's room for players who had really high peaks as well as those who didn't rise quite as high but had long runs of sustained excellence. Torii's case relies more on the second than the first; he just didn't have any of those amazing seasons where you had to consider him one of the best of the best in baseball, a true MVP contender, etc. There's something to be said for having 13 years in a row where you don't have a bad season, but he only landed 5 all-star appearances...and that was fairly generous based on his performance. Yes, he won 9 Gold Gloves, but the metrics suggest that most of the later ones were probably more due to reputation than performance. (This is where the Ozzie Smith argument falls flat: Oz really was that great on defense by any analysis) When Torii's bat got going, his defense was already slipping. When he was a great defender, he hadn't figured out how to really hit yet. He was frequently a good offensive player, never a great one (never had an OPS+ over 130) Looking at a couple of Torii's peers is instructive: Jim Edmonds & Mike Cameron. Neither is in the Hall, and I'd argue Torii is closer to Cameron than Edmonds...and no one is really advocating for Mike Cameron as a Hall of Famer. (Lofton was better than any of them, but seems to have detonated his chances through his personal conduct) Torii was a wonderful player. But he falls short for me.
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