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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I think after the disaster that was the "Randy Ratio", any MN coach/manager is going to avoid putting hard numbers on something like this. But what Nick's outlined here is probably close to the ideal situation for the Twins. Will it actually keep Buxton healthy? No one knows.
  2. jmlease1
    Ok, you're right. The Twins will be dreadful on offense this year and destined to fail because everyone will get hurt again. Is that what you want to hear?
  3. jmlease1
    And as a result they made sure they had much better, proven depth options as insurance. What exactly do you want them to do? Trade all the guys that were injured last year (i'm sure you'd get great value there) and replace them with...someone? If Buxton gets hurt, we have Michael A. Taylor. If Kirilloff gets hurt, we have Solano as an option. Larnach clearly isn't being counted on; he's probably starting in AAA. They signed Vazquez so they wouldn't have to rely on Jeffers being healthy all season.
  4. jmlease1
    But you're not seeing the lineup that scored fewer than 700 runs. (a little disingenuous, that: they scored 696. it's not like they were the Pirates) That lineup had Jake Cave, Mark Contreras, and Billy Hamilton in it. And Sandy Leon catching. First half of the season the Twins were scoring 4.5 runs per game (over a full season that's 729 runs); second half it was down to 4 (including a dreadful 3.6 in Sept). Houston won the World Series with 737 runs, Cleveland won the division with 698. This lineup is more than capable of scoring enough runs to contend if reasonably healthy. But they're also deeper than last season and more able to withstand injury. That said...no team handles the level of injury the Twins had last season. #2 in all of baseball in player games lost to injury.
  5. jmlease1
    Hopefully, Joe Pohlad can fix the issue with the team's TV contract and broadcast "partner", get them into a better position for streaming Twins baseball, and position themselves to generate better local revenues and continue to have them spending consistently in the middle of the pack or better on payroll. I will say, it's always better to have an owner (or lead from the ownership group, or whatever the setup is) who likes baseball, and Joe Pohlad certainly seems to care about it. I hope the Pohlad Family looks to the Rooneys in the NFL as their model for a family ownership of a professional sports team.
  6. jmlease1
    This feels like a more well-rounded team than other of recent vintage. The starting rotation is easily the deepest it's been in a long time, and while it might not have the high-end of say, the Johan days, it has playoff-caliber starters going much deeper. the bullpen at least one elite performer and several quality options. the lineup looks to be fairly deep with an array of options: not relying on a purely Bomba Squad or Piranas methodology to get get runs. With some of the platoon/bench players they've added, it looks to have better R-L balance than last season (even if they got there in an odd way), and there's much more depth for if/when injuries strike. There's definitely top-end talent on this team: Buxton and Correa are both capable of MVP seasons, and while it's maybe stretching it a little to use Maeda's short pandemic year run to Cy Young contention as a true benchmark, every starter in the rotation is capable of having an all-star season if things go their way. We've seen it before that when a couple of guys have the big year at the same time it can get very interesting. (1991 Scott Erickson and Kevin Tapani had their best years as a pro at the same time that Jack Morris had a return to a classic Jack Morris season; twins have only had 3 starters all achieve an ERA+ of 125 at the same time once since 1991, and that was the pandemic year of 2020...and two of those guys made less than 10 starts. Mahle, Gray, Lopez, and Maeda have all hit that level before and all but Maeda have done it multiple times. Could Ryan join that club?) Duran is a monster at the back end of the bullpen. It's spring, so hope is eternal. I choose to look on the positive side (especially since there's not a lot that can be changed at this point. Why not look for the better possible outcomes?)
  7. jmlease1
    If MLB was changing the ball for Yankees & nationally televised games, then someone (and likely several someones) needs to be fired and run out of the game for life. That's a manipulation that cannot be allowed to occur in professional sports (or any sports, really). Yes, both teams would be playing with the same ball still, but you cannot allow any kind of manipulation of games like that. Want fans to see more offense? Make rule or ball adjustments in the offseason, be transparent about it, and make it uniform across the game. not so Judge can chase the HR record or you can get more action on the nationally televised game. I'm not terribly worried about how this nonsense will impact the Twins this season. If they've juiced the ball up again, their sluggers (and they have a few) will launch additional balls out of the park, and so will the opposition. Yes, the Twins are mostly flyball pitchers, but so is most of the league. The focus across baseball for pitchers has been on getting strike outs, and that's not the specialty of groundball pitchers. And the focus for the Twins this offseason on improving the defense wasn't just in improving the OF defense: I think the infield defense will be better too.
  8. jmlease1
    That's good news, generally. I'm not surprised if he's still not there on the changeup, which is definitely a "feel" pitch, but if he's velocity is up in the mid-90's then then it's a good sign overall, i think. I'm still very high on Alcala.
  9. jmlease1
    Hopefully he's just trying to get himself built back up. It's been a while since he's really thrown, so he might be a bit behind everyone else (and cautious to see how it feels out there. I'm still hopeful. I have no problem with kicking the tires on guys like Santana or Hoffman for spot at the end of the bullpen. Maybe you find a guy who finally got something to click, maybe you catch lightning in a bottle. but it's a low risk move so long as you're not trying to fill slots in your top 4-5 guys. (and the twins aren't doing that: they already have quality locked in with Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Lopez for the back end)
  10. jmlease1
    There's very little not to like about Brooks Lee. He's had about as good a start to his professional career as you could ask for. I love the fact that he's a switch hitter, he can/should be a superior defender at 3B/2B, and I wouldn't be surprised if he adds a little more power as he matures. The approach at the plate is terrific. I honestly think the only reason he's not ranking higher on global prospect lists is he was a college player and many prospect rankers tend to value younger players with tools that they can "project" over older ones with demonstrable production.
  11. jmlease1
    Wallner has made it to MLB, though. yes, his role this season will be as an injury replacement...but he got there already. It's fair to question the Miller pick, but he does appear to have the defensive chops to stick at SS, which means his floor is still pretty high even if he doesn't hit because guys who can legit play SS aren't that easy to find (see also, twins, for like a decade). And Miller was an end of round guy, not a top 10 or anything. Petty might be legit...but we turned him into Sonny Gray and when you consider how many high school arms bust...even if we only get 2 years of Sonny Gray that's 2 years of a proven, quality MLB arm. A legit playoff-caliber starter. Rooker wasn't great, but he still played for us at the MLB level, so you can't call him a bust, and you can't put him in the same class as Cavaco or Sabato, that's just not fair to him. I get the desire to downgrade Lewis & Larnach because of their injuries...but those injuries are not a failure of draft evaluation, which is what we're talking about here. how can you predict that Royce Lewis is going to tear his ACL slipping on the ice in TEXAS? And despite that injury costing him a season, despite missing another season of developmental games due to the pandemic (on the back of his knee injury), Royce Lewis crushed it in AAA last season and looked legit in his cup of coffee in MLB before getting hurt again. Honestly, that's a heck of an argument for their evaluation of his sheer talent coming into the draft.
  12. jmlease1
    They seem to have done ok with last year's #1, Brooks Lee. Baseball draft can be a big crapshoot, unfortunately. While this front office hasn't produced a superstar from their drafts (yet), their 1st round results aren't awful even with some misses on the resume. Royce Lewis has debuted in MLB and looked good (can't blame the drafters for the injuries) Brent Rooker made it to MLB before being dealt Trevor Larnach has made it to MLB (injuries seem to be the only thing holding him back) Keoni Cavaco looks like he might bust...but is still only 22 Matt Wallner has already debuted in MLB Aaron Sabato is looking like a bust Chase Petty netted us a proven quality MLB starter Noah Miller looks like a quality defender at SS at age 20 in A-ball (we'll see if he hits, but seems ok for late in the round) Brooks Lee is already in AA, a consensus top 100 prospect, and literally doing everything right 2 busts (so far) out of 9 picks isn't too bad, the Lee pick is looking fantastic, and there's definitely some upside left here. the Cavaco pick is probably the worst one: it was a relatively high choice, there were other good options, and even at the time it looked like a reach. While I didn't love the Sabato pick, it wasn't unreasonable at that point in the draft, and frankly that draft was just a little weird because of the pandemic. I'm of the opinion that you can't call a player who makes it to MLB with your club a bust. And if you can trade a player drafted in the first round for a current starter it's hard to say he wasn't worth the pick.
  13. jmlease1
    Getting HBP is a significant part of Martin's game. He's our version of Don Baylor!
  14. jmlease1
    All reasonable choices. Cavaco needs to start showing something, but isn't necessarily at a break point, just because he's still only 21. Even if he doesn't have a real breakout the Twins aren't going to be "sorry, kid, but it's just not working out." after this season unless he regresses even further. His age and tools will give him a little longer rope. Sabato is increasingly in trouble. It doesn't matter if you have moonshot power if you can't make contact. He lit it up as a college hitter in a real league, but he's been pretty poor as a pro. Did his bat speed slow down since college? Is it the wooden bats? Pretty surprising to see a player who crushed it that much in college show so little straight out the gate, but at the end of the day he didn't actually play that much at North Carolina, and maybe that has something to do with it too. He played more games in his first year as a pro than he did in his whole college career, which might be an indicator. Balazovic is the most disappointing. High school players don't make it all the time, and a lot of us were questioning Sabato from the jump, but Balazovic had shown so much promise and earned his way up the ranks so for him to have collapsed at AAA is a bummer. Coming off a messy, injury strewn year there was hope that it was a one-off and he could bounce back quickly, but the off-field incident is going to set him back again and clearly the team is unhappy with him.
  15. jmlease1
    I've been high on Joe Ryan since we traded for him and he's done nothing to change my opinion. I'm really looking forward to seeing how the slider works for him this season, because if he has sharpened it up it should be a weapon. (it's anecdotal, but I clearly recall times where he was trying to get guys to chase it but couldn't get there) If the split change proves to be effective against lefties and settles in as a solid off-speed pitch for the arsenal then i think he's going to have a pretty terrific year. the dreadful "you got yourself into this mess, you get yourself out of it" game against SD really skewed his numbers for the year, but it's not like Ryan rolled up all his good numbers by beating up on KC & Det. He was also good in every one of his starts against Cleveland, and they were a damn good team last year (I'll take 3 runs yielded in 19 2/3 innings every single time). I'm very excited to watch him pitch this year.
  16. jmlease1
    very weird draft. Only 5 rounds? I'm guessing the pandemic was already messing up scouting opportunities as well. I wasn't thrilled about the pick at the time, but I do understand the thought process: they looked at his power production in college and his batting eye and thought he might be someone who could contribute quickly with his bat, even if he didn't add anything defensively. At the end of the round you're going to have more flaws in a player's game and/or more risk in their development. Sabato has immense power, and he's still able to draw walks, but his contact rate is dreadful. Wooden bat problem, maybe? ball that still flew out in college are just getting fouled back? The regression in cedar rapids last season wasn't enough to stop him from getting promoted, but it was still disappointing after his short stint there in 2021. there as hope that getting him out of the FSL might have unlocked something for him, but it's not really looking that way. He's got a lot of work to do in order to get himself on the 40-man. Right now, he's a pretty easy guy to expose in the Rule 5: he adds little to nothing on D and his contract rates don't allow his power production to play. The good eye at the plate isn't enough if he can't make contact when he swings, and eventually better pitchers will pump the zone on him if he can't punish them for it. You never know, but it's not looking great here.
  17. jmlease1
    I love Joe Ryan. He's my favorite Twins starter to watch, and if that split-change is working for him, then he's going to be even more fun this season. Ryan's got the mentality you want out there: fearless but smart. That fastball is really good, with that extra bit of deception on it. It's sort of what they used to call a "Positive" Fastball, because every hitter is positive they can hit it. (The old Jim Palmer bit) Mahle's shoulder issues are a weird one. There's nothing showing up structurally, so he should be fine...but obviously he wasn't at the end of the year for the Twins. Hopefully a normal offseason addresses that and he can focus on sharpening up that slider and making it a consistent weapon. I appreciate how direct he's been about where some of his pitches were last year. That tells me he knows what he needs to do to improve, and the time at Driveline shows he's putting in the work even when it's not on the team's nickel. Hope it works! I mean, a guy coming in to camp talking about the new/improved pitch they have is sort of the equivalent of "best shape of their life" on the cliché meter, but things become clichés in part because they're true as well...
  18. jmlease1
    That draft list is reminder why the previous regime is no longer here: Stewart & Jay being top 10 picks who busted sandwiching Nick Gordon who needed 8 years to become a viable pro is pretty rough. The current regimes back-to-back of Cavaco & Sabato is pretty bad, but both were drafted outside the top 10. Missing on high draft picks hurts, even with baseball being the hardest sport to predict draft success. Twins have definitely had injuries derail some of their best prospects. I will admit to thinking that Fernando Romero was going to be something; probably should have looked closer at his performance over his tools back then. He was never that good after A-ball and flamed out pretty quickly once he had to face the higher quality hitters. I'm still really high on Kirilloff. He's so talented with the bat and if this latest surgery has actually fixed the problem then he could fly.
  19. jmlease1
    sigh...yeah.
  20. jmlease1
    The more I think about this, the more I'm thinking that the team is worried a couple of guys aren't going to be ready for Opening Day (Kirilloff, Polanco are the two that seem to be the most likely?) and they don't have a lot of confidence in Nick Gordon filling in at an infield spot. I still feel like I'd rather have Larnach on the roster (I'm still pretty high on him), but he does have an option left. Not that he really has much to prove at AAA really, and I think his upside on offense more than offsets any superiority Kepler has on defense, but maybe they're also entertaining Kepler deals as camp continues and an injury reveals itself on another team. Solano seems like an ok platoon guy, and after last year's nightmare I love having depth, but I still think we'd probably be better off with Gordon & Larnach getting Kepler's ABs, and by adding Votto & Solano to this roster there's not a lot of room for Larnach.
  21. jmlease1
    It's an interesting idea. While Lewis got a big signing bonus and hasn't been running broke like so many minor leaguers, that was quite a few years ago and it's not the kind of generational money that a deal like this would be. There might be some attraction for Lewis after the second surgery, no matter how confident he is in his abilities. I feel like it's worth exploring. I think the numbers are probably a little light, just considering where Lewis' upside is and where baseball economics have gone in the past few years?
  22. jmlease1
    It's the sort of move a team makes when they have a guy coming back from injury that isn't going to be ready for Opening Day with the potential for it to linger longer, IMHO. Which makes me nervous. I was expecting the Twins to sign someone to a minor-league deal who was trying to hang on for another year or work their way back to MLB, not add someone on a MLB contract. I'd hope the value of the deal wouldn't guarantee them a roster spot all season? He's not a bad player or anything, but the ceiling is limited.
  23. jmlease1
    Yankees did win 99 games last season. more importantly, they're in our heads in a way that the Astros are not (even though we actually performed better against the Yankees than we did against the Astros last season). but your point is taken. i don't know if Miranda is better than Stanton right now or not. Stanton is more proven, but coming off what looks like a worse year (even if the OPS+ is comparable, Stanton was worse in the 2nd half and missed a lot of time; Miranda recovered from a rocky start and finished out the year pretty well) and with some serious injury issues...maybe, maybe not. Yankees have kind of a weird lineup.
  24. jmlease1
    The fear is, of course, that the Twins don't see him as the 7th/8th guy in the bullpen but instead as more like the 4th/5th guy. Which is the sort of aggro that makes us not want him on the team at all. But you are absolutely correct in that there are a lot fewer of those "who's going to do X or Y" on this team this season. The questions are much more around "can X get/stay healthy?" or "can Y improve on last season". the roles are fairly well set, unless there a significant injury or major underperformance in camp.
  25. jmlease1
    Twins already know Martin is good enough to slot into the OF if needed; the question is whether or not he can be a quality defender on the dirt too. Seems a little unlikely at SS, but there's indicators that he could do quite well at 2B. He's an on-base machine with good speed and superior baserunning ability, so he doesn't need a lot of power to be a very good offensive player in MLB. But we'd sure like to see some. He's had trouble showing it at AA, but showed good flashes in the AFL and certainly did fine in his last two years of college. Martin's only had 2 years in the minors, was probably rushed to AA and had his development disrupted by a trade...so who is the real Martin? I'm still a fan. He could be a great 4th OF for this team as early as next season; he could backup Buxton well, and as a righty bat be a nice fit amongst the LH corner OFs we have. I like his speed and baserunning, which would add a different dimension to the Twins offense.
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