Jocko87

As you illustrate, it’s declining significantly. $51m excludes 3 months without meaningful revenue, they will certainly come in with another year over year decline. The peak of 104m came in a year where they won a World Series and had one of the best possible business outcomes they could hope for. A banner year in more ways than one and a very solid business outcome many businesses would kill for. They are normalizing into an 8-10% business which is nothing to sneeze at but certainly not setting any records. One bad contract still would hurt. Take out the Battery numbers, which the Twins don’t have, and I would not be surprised if the Twins weren’t spending more than the 52% on payroll last year. OIBDA is also a non-GAAP number. It’s doesn’t include debt service or interest payments, of which the Braves are servicing half a billion. It’s a good measure of the baseball operations but not a complete picture of the full business.

That’s fascinating, thank you. I would still think it would be on the annual report somewhere though but it further illustrates how different the Braves and the Twins situations are. The Polahds would seem to be at a disadvantage not having a sale transaction since 84, where the Braves sold and now spun off has certainly reset those basis numbers. What’s the depreciation schedule on Correa’s contract? Linearly or I’m sure some sort of cost segregation strategy?

I can't see where they would be depreciating players? I don't believe any business can do that with employees, including baseball? It would be a line item in the 10Q i would think.

Whats the difference between a 97 OPS+ and a 79 OPS+ in a player? One is a solid major leaguer and the other is a DFA/AAAA guy. Its a big difference. I agree with your thesis of spending to the market. Your methodology is incorrect though. You cannot use the best three month period of the year to tell you anything. If you try to apply for a loan based on the best three months of any seasonal business you will get laughed out of the bank. There is a large issue with only having one teams data avalible in that small sample size distorts everything and lots of people try to read the data incorrectly. Just check out this Sports Illustrated article where the call it 272M "profit!!!" instead of revenue. That kind of misreading of the data causes all kinds of issues. https://www.si.com/mlb/braves/analysis/atlanta-braves-holdings-2023q3-financial-results When we pull the lens back on the actual data the 6 month view is enlightening. The previous 3 months, Jan Feb and March include much of spring training (loss leader) only brings an additional 20-30m in revenue. Over that 6 month period, including the period you reference, they operated at a loss. Year over year, they performed significantly worse. ie lost money. The largest difference is baseball operating costs, most likely player salary. Stepping back to a 9 month view, (full year won't be available until late January at the earliest) we can see most of revenue for the year. It will be interesting to come back and see playoff impact but this is pretty close to full year revenue. The playoffs are very conveniently scheduled so we can see the value of a playoff game. Regardless, almost no revenue in November or December but the bills keep coming. The final numbers will certainly be worse than these. From a quick review of the reports, I can see where the Twins TV deal was 10m less. That plus attendance at 1m or so less feels like a lot more than 18% difference. 18% less revenue than the Braves at 52% of baseball revenue would work out to a $225m payroll to the Twins. That's not close to correct and the missing information makes it an impossible equation to solve. The Braves have to service half a billion in debt, how much do the Twins have? The Twins almost certainly have a different expense structure as well. Heck, the Braves aren't even spending 50% of baseball revenue on salary and they are operating at a loss. What should we expect the Twins to do? While there will be significant differences between the two teams we can reasonably assume some similarities. If the Twins are actually at 50-52% of baseball revenue they should be commended as they probably are operating at a loss yearly already. It's quite obvious that the Correa spend over the last two years pushed the comfort level. The investment you are asking for has already happened, unfortunately. If they can't get back to 3m attendance they can't spend much more. Focus on product instead of payroll.

Checkbook is quite the outdated word, agreed. By the time she's spending money it will be completely out of date.

To say nothing of Gallen and Alcantara...

Was Lee exempt from Covid? I don't think anyone is taking anything away from Julien here, he is a success story in any way you can look at it. He has never been higher than a top 15 prospect in the Twins org that I can find. I was looking back a found this gem, we have known exactly who he is for a long time now. I don't know why we would expect him to change. He's pretty close to his ceiling. Brooks Lee has been a consensus top 10-20 global prospect at a premium position since the day he was drafted. He is a plus bat from both sides of the plate and can play defense anywhere you put him in the infield. He doesn't ever have to leave the field. Julien is a black hole against lefties and needs a Farmer on the bench wherever he is. His only tool is his bat and good managers can take that away from him. The value between the two is not close. It is the closest it will ever be right now though. I will add that I watched both in person several times in Wichita. I'm not a scout by any means but I watch a LOT of baseball in person (I also ump 100+ games a year). I also watched most of the Royals championship squad come through back in the day. While I was never very impressed with Julien at AA (OPS .931 I'm aware) for whatever reasons, Lee operates on a different level that is on par with anyone I've seen through here. Completely subjective, for sure, but in this case my eyes agree with every talent evaluator in the business. Yay, me!

Julien is far from proving he's the long term solution at 2B, I'm throwing my lot in with the guy that can play defense and not be platooned for. It's not close. I started the article with a chuckle seeing Lee's picture, then the line about Julien brought it together. Also Castillo was only 5/108? Just like a house we shoulda bought earlier.

Interesting timing for a resigning, this quick makes me wonder why they didn't just extend prior to free agency? Rose colored glasses would say he quickly saw that the Phillies were much higher than everyone else? Seems like a pretty reasonable deal.

I suggested Senzel as a trade target last spring as he seemed a great fit then. To me, he replaces Gordon, as the player Gordon was supposed to be except RH. I thought he was a talented guy that might need a change of scenery. He also has options so that gives him twice Gordon’s value in this roster. Actually being able to play several defensive positions is nice too.

Joey Gallo would destroy the Midwest league. Like 1.400 Ops prime Barry Bonds destroy. I'd bet his strikeout rate would be under 20%. I do not think the league has seen the last of a scary Joey Gallo. It won't be with the Twins but I'd bet he has another 40 HR season in him. So easy to hate but the margins are so thin at the big league level.

It's going to be a good year watching baseball in Wichita. A few very interesting guys will be in town.

That's nice dear.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-federal-government-kpmg-consulting/

But a minor league rehab offer for Moran which means we can have this conversation again and again.

Wow, sorry about the autocorrect. I would not start Farmer as a regular in almost any situation that isn't universally bad for the Twins. I'd even bring up Lee as a regular at 2nd base to keep Farmer in the jack of all trades role. I think that if it gets to him being a regular starter, lots of things had to go badly. Farmers value is that he can be a starter anywhere but using him as that starter diminishes that value. The John Vander Wal curse, if you will.

My forecast keeps Polanco, at least until the deadline. Farmer in a starting spot means Isomething when wrong. He, and the whole team is better is he's a bench guy.

I don't look at Farmer as $6m for a utility player. It's $2m for the utility player, $4m for the insurance policy around the field. I've said many times he's the most important guy to bring back of this group, even if everyone is healthy and productive he gets in 120-130 games as a plus factor replacement. I would also expect to see him fool around in left field at some point in the spring. He makes perfect sense for a team in this position and veteran dollars can't be spent much better.

I watched him several times at Wichita. He generally caught what was hit at him but not much more. I didn't see a ton of grievous mistakes but he doesn't really get to enough balls to make errors. Defensively he's a 1st baseman who could be decent over there. Playing him at 2B or 3B in the majors would be like throwing Farmer in centerfield. He'd catch a few and play the part but mostly just make sure the ball got back to the infield. Emergency option at best. That does limit his options with the big club but he'd be so far down the depth chart at 2nd or 3rd it does t matter, at least for this year. If the bat plays, he can find plenty of run at 1st and DH.

Dangit all Gregg, why you gotta be all realistic and stuff? The more I think about it the more I'm on the side of keeping Polo and Kep and most certainly Farmer. I think it's partly the FO MO and I also think the correct way to go for a contender. They can't risk a bunch if youth failing. One more year to see Lee and Martin and AK and Miranda and etc is more valuable than the prospects gained. Neither will fetch the starting pitcher we want so they are in that middle ground of value.

Milwaukee?

When they first got Farmer there was discussion of him playing a little outfield as well. I don't know if it was team or pundit discussion but I have no doubt he could be functional left fielder. I'd have him working on it in the spring. A healthy Buxton changes everything but a great problem to deal with.

You know, they should be monitoring the situation. Should Ohtani for some odd reason not want a long term deal so he could heal up as a pitcher the Twins should be the premiere destination for that type free agent. No more bargain basement rehabs, only high end flips from now on. The Correa model again. Were they to be used by either Correa or Ohtani I'd still have the memories. How does our GIF machine not have an American Pie, I've been used? I've been used. I've been used! Cool! GIF? Anyway, insert that here.

I wouldn't extend Farmer as they can just go the arbitration route but I'm hard on record that he might be the most important guy they can keep for this coming season. I think AK and Miranda deserve and get another shot to show they can hit in the bigs but at some point players like Farmer are just better players and better fits for winning teams. He raises the floor of the entire roster. His presence allows them to be patient with the youth at so many positions and if by some miracle all the kids hit he's got tremendous value at the deadline. Even if everyone is healthy and playing well I still think his versatility on both sides of the ball gets him in 120-130 games. Rocco won't be able to help himself and it will be the right move as the option is good.

Everyone will be calling him Walker soon, I’m a trendsetter that way. Now go back and read my post for comprehension.