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Jocko87

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Everything posted by Jocko87

  1. Jocko87
    The new trainer has a lot to do with it, just not the way you are thinking. Buxton didn't even get a cortisone shot until late September. I remember being very skeptical about Polo out of spring training as they hadn't cut anything, just rest and rehab. Polo had other legs injuries but no problems with the knee. He seems to be a longer term kinda guy which may have been part of hiring him, what with Buxton and Correa in the fold. Don't cut or shoot up unless absolutely required. I can work with that as generally a better long term approach. My gut tells me they were sure the plica needed to go sometime in August and the time line didn't work. The injury management is not a problem for me. I sadly suspect the knee will be fine but something else may be a problem instead.
  2. Jocko87
    Anyone can comment but not read the article. I'm not interested in a conversation with someone who hasn't read the material. The Josh Staumant pitch mix thread is a ton of excellent deep dive stuff but the conversation is overrun by discussion of where he fits on the 40 man. There is an article already posted for that. Those posters that can't read the article are only going to discuss the information they have, not the information in that article. Every caretaker article has this discussion in it so let's discuss it here. Fire away.
  3. Jocko87
    I've been beating this drum a bit for all these reasons but I never really made it clear that I only view it as part of the solution, say maybe 40 games. Understood that he probably is on the back side of his best centerfield days but he will still certainly be solid. They also can't really talk about it in public just yet, this will be one of those things where the lineup posts and there he is.
  4. Jocko87
    Having conversations about the article with people who haven't read the article to sell subscriptions? Got it. We have a bad enough problem with talking past each other already and your model is backwards. People on the caretaker articles are talking 40 man spots instead of the information presented, which was very good, by the way. They are dragging the caretaker article conversation down, not lifting the free forum. Used to be a moderator would keep folks on the topic of the thread. Not necessarily their fault, but personally I wouldn't make a lot of comments on something I hadn't read. That's just me though.
  5. Jocko87
    The difference is that this is a young pitcher on the rise who can reasonably project some where higher. We are all tired of and don’t want washed up vets at the back of the rotation but those innings are valuable during the regular season. Varland should get a shot to show what he’s brought back from driveline. And yes, Varland is the exact profile of what they are looking to trade for. Young, controlled, promising, some MLB experience but with a few tweaks they can unlock a stud. I don’t know that Varland himself would be a guy they would target but the profile certainly is. What we clamber for is irrelevant.
  6. Jocko87
    Correct, and the regular season value is not nearly as important as we think. The post season value is top of scale.
  7. Jocko87
    There are no bad answers here. Varland will give quality innings as a starter for several months and unless he looks like a game 2 or 3 playoff starter he will slot to the bullpen in September. Best of both worlds and good outcomes either way. Quality production in the regular season and a weapon in the playoffs. Best case is, holy cow, we want him starting in the playoffs. Don't look at this as an either or question. It’s the perfect situation for maximizing player value.
  8. Jocko87
    An offseason spent not rehabbing but instead working on getting better is very exciting.
  9. Jocko87
    I think one more article where aretheynow Akil Baddoo and Lamont Wade should do it. On a seriously satirical note, last year at this time while we were all tuning out and metaphorically licking our wounds going from Correa to Gallo they were still slaving over a hot stove nurturing a dying ember that eventually became the biggest signing in team history. They may have had a little Pablo Lopez simmering on the back burner as well. Seriously, what's up with the back burner at grandma's house? My mom always has something going back there.
  10. Jocko87
    But it's the offseason! And it's quiet out. Only item one is a valid metric. Everything in item two is fodder for clicks. In this case, at the time of the deal, it was a good trade. It did not work out. A couple AAAA hitters that can't catch and a prospect for two years of an actual frontline pitcher is a good trade. Once that pitcher gets hurt, all other evaluations are invalid. Had he not been hurt, would we have this article with the complete opposite viewpoint? Maybe. Highly possible he starts game 3 in the Astros series. Had he payed and still sucked, well, we might still be having this conversation. In fact, had he been healthy we would have a bunch of chatter about how the cheap Twins never sign pitching and let him get away. The article I want to read is about what lead to them trading for multiple pitchers with arm problems and what they did to fix it. Was the head trainer change part of that? Are we going to have that issue again this year? It really makes a trade look bad. This is nowhere close to the worst trade in Twins history and no amount of All-Star games for CES will change that. (I'm betting the under on zero)
  11. Jocko87
    I'd be all for it, except Castillo has a full no trade clause. On top of these types of deal rarely happening he's very unlikely to be mobile from his or the teams standpoint.
  12. Jocko87
    Paddack was a tremendous bright spot here, it should be a fun year for him in 2024. I'm in the strikeouts don't matter camp. The timing and quality of the strikeout is everything. Getting beat by a good pitcher having to find his best stuff isn't the worst thing in the world. It happens. If you can make him use 8 pitches repeatedly you will get where you need to be eventually. Flailing at a waste pitch to end a bad at bat is almost the worst thing you can do in the entire game. They had far too many of those strikeouts last year. At the end of the year, less strikeouts will generally be an indicator of better offense but it's not a direct relationship. It's not the metric to manage to. Good situational at bats are a far better thing to manage. Losing to the death star that is the Astros may be a good thing in the long run. They have seen the level of at bat that is needed to succeed in the postseason. As mentioned, Royce was pressing after some early success. The Blue Jays and the Astros are completely different levels and I like their chances of responding accordingly. Very curious to hear more about Popkins and mid-season adjustments especially if he's coming back.
  13. Jocko87
    Agreed but very odd that they still award the high performance players who already exercised their bargaining power. Seems like they should be ineligible for selling out their arbitration.
  14. Jocko87
    If they want to do it now is the time. One full healthy year and the price goes way up. Alex Bregman, also a Boras guy, is a good comp who signed for $100m at 3 ish years service time. He didn't have the injury history and had a solid major league track record but $100m doesn't go as far as it used too. Kep and Polo are Twins comps but they really don't apply to Lewis. He comps to the league. I'd be all for it, but the numbers laid out probably don't get it done.
  15. Jocko87
    That poor dunderhead doesn't even remember trading away the pencil. Unless he was raised in the broken household of Minnesota Twins Fandom that never got any other nice pieces to trade with. Like a Nintendo or a Mauer or cabbage patch kids. The Terry Ryan scout and develop, hoard a prospect regime has left the fanbase with a severe case of the one who got away syndrome. We better start getting over it if we expect the current regime to be around for a while, and we should. Modern, successful baseball organizations don't remember the pencil. Meanwhile, Twins fans still pine for the likes of Lamont Wade and Akil Baddoo. Stop it. There will be many more trades. Trade trees are not a thing, even though I appreciate the lighter hearted look at it. Anything past evaluating the deal made, with the facts at that time, and the success of the players involved isn't a metric we should be measuring. That the Reds just signed a free agent on top of CES and are rumored to be willing to move on from him should affect how we feel about the Mahle deal, but it likely won't. If they somehow flip CES for Mike Trout Jr it doesn't factor in the Twins part of that trade. Only the CES value is part of the equation.
  16. Jocko87
    Good riddance isn't exactly the correct term here. We'll all feel better about this as first CES then Steer prove to be 4A players. It was worth the shot. No idea why we would be mad at Mahle though. It is kinda funny watching the Reds chase pitching this offseason after they sold it all off.
  17. Jocko87
    The commish can't do anything. Apparently it's all spelled out in the new CBA and perfectly kosher. It's another one of those things that's not too uncommon but when do you need at scale everyone goes holy smokes. The owe Betts a bunch of deferred money in that time period too. Hope they have a good CFO and a nice savings account.
  18. Jocko87
    They are the perfect partner but none of these 1 for 1s work. Julien plus low prospects gets Burnes and Weimers. Off-season done, basically. I prefer Weimers only for being right handed as well. No idea if he can play, that’s their job. The Brewers have what we need and we have what they need. It will come back up in January though, no hurry.
  19. Jocko87
    Wichita is a great place to watch a game and its always immaculate. I hadn't heard he won the award, good for him. Its a tough region for summer grass sometimes.
  20. Jocko87
    The best part of this is that we can stop listening to "insiders" for good now. They have nothing they aren't fed.
  21. Jocko87
    Polo seems like he would be a Tampa type player and Glasnow would be great but I can't see them just taking that salary for a year. Even at a $15m difference its still 25m for a single guy and restricts other moves. If we see any actual steam about a trade like this I'll get really excited because my assumption would be that they are confident in some sort of extension to go with it. A $25m rental just isn't in their mindset. By the way, I'm pretty much done with baseball trade values website. Its a fun tool but the level of work it would take to keep up with all these players makes it a lark at best. Glasnow is listed as low availability. Everything we hear is that he is the second most likely player to be traded after Soto and here's BBTV.com-LOW availability.
  22. Jocko87
    Agreed, Polo is more valuable to the market while Kepler is more valuable to the Twins. I could easily see a situation that has Kepler staying with the Twins all season. It works out nicely for us. Kelper's value in the outfield rotation is critical as he's healthy and dependable, locking down a spot. Set and forget players are very nice to have. I still think he could get some CF rotation time too. Maybe 30-40 games depending on how things go. It will be good for the team and his free agent value, maybe bumping to the QO levels if he keep hitting.
  23. Jocko87
    I’m hoping to hear that he works in the outfield a bit this spring. There was talk of that when he was acquired but he was needed quite a bit more in the infield last year with the slow starts. If he can function in left field against a LH starter it opens up a ton more options.
  24. Jocko87
    Kyle Farmer. And Castro. Gordon no longer has utility, much less super utility. Martin fits in with the rolling class of rookies back and forth to St Paul so he really doesn’t qualify. He has to prove he can do anything in the bigs first. They value competent depth quite a bit. Farmer is that guy all over the field.
  25. Jocko87
    I think I would. Losing Erod hurts a bit but LH starting pitching > LH corner OF bat. Jeffers is the interesting part. Was last year a career year or the start of something bigger? It would help solve the Vazquez situation too. If Camargo is close having Vazquez as a mentor would make me more comfortable. Take whatever Vazquez can do with the bat and pitch their butts off. Risky but it might work. I can see the path but it really depends how they evaluate Jeffers year.
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