Jocko87

I got a lot of scoffing my general direction during the season for my statements that this was the most talented 40 man roster in our lifetimes. I did get some solid entrants from old-timers but my point is still solid, its the most talent assembled top to bottom in quite some time in Twins Territory. Now the challenge is picking and choosing the best to keep and consolidating that talent into a killer 26 man major league roster. Scored one with Pablo, now do it again.

What puts Julien in the will not get traded category? Especially ahead of Lee, where I would value them exactly opposite. Lee is far more valuable in general but even more valuable to a team like the Twins. They can't afford to throw their lot in with one tool players, not matter how good that tool might be. Lee playing solid defense at 3 infield positions and not having to be platooned as a switch hitter makes his floor closer to Juliens ceiling as an all around ball player. Add that to the example of trading Julien 1.0 last season I think he is among the most likely to be traded, which is another column.

I was kinda wondering the same thing. I'm a caretaker so it appears different to me. Now I'm discussing an article with someone who hasn't read the article? No offense to non-caretakers but we get plenty of talking past each other because we aren't reading each others posts but now we are discussing stuff people can't read if if they were inclined. Odd. I'm a caretaker because the ad load is insane if not. I'd be a fan of a caretaker only forum but now that I know most of this discussion is with people who haven't read it there isn't much reason to interact with it.

But if that was true he would be very highly ranked in a trade value column. While I do agree that he has significant skills I don't think he's just scratching the surface. He's closer to his ceiling than anyone on the list. He's kinda a sell high guy for me.

Julien is at least 6th on this list. Certainly ahead of Kepler and Polanco. I'd argue that Miranda, Larnach, Jax and Kirilloff would all slot higher in value as well despite struggles. Years of control is a multipler. Kepler and Polanco are stuck in the limbo zone of too good and too cheap. They can't bring enough value to be traded and their production is too good to be backfilled easily. They both break camp with the Twins.

The Donaldson and Simmons et al era really cemented something very important for the current squad. Team matters, character matters, working together matters. Correa drives culture and I would be very surprised if they intentionally brought in one of these disruptive type forces again.

But Chourio helps others to be available which is really what we want. Wiemers or Mitchell would be fine although I'd take Wiemers on his righthandedness. I know very little about either but they have significant CF depth. Peralta doesn't even get a response from me if the question is about Lee. Lee needs to fetch 5 years of cheap high level starting pitcher plus prospects. I'm setting the price at inconceivable and daring someone to bite. I understand we can't have nice things but the underselling of Lee around these parts is very odd. Top 10 (Fangraphs) global prospects don't move and when they do, they break the bank.

You forgot to mention they play completely different positions. Otherwise, completely not comparable players in any way. Using Walker to minimize Lee is irresponsible at best. I bet I can find 4 18 year olds with similar numbers you've never heard of but every 22yo 1st rounder that made AAA within a year of the draft is familiar. For example, this took me 7 seconds to find. He is also a catcher. I would assume he's the #1 prospect of all time but Baseball Reference and Fangraphs have barely heard of him. 2023 numbers if you want to look him up. 18 year old born in November, at rookie/low A: 35 games, 143 PA .379/.451/.629, 1.080, 6 HR, 9 BB, 19 K, 1 SB, 37 R, 31 RBI, 13 2B Walker isn't going anywhere in a trade (this year) so it should not be a topic. This time next year he might be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball (like Brooks Lee). I'll have to see it first but those guys don't just move. I agree he has significant potential but we need to be realistic. Chase Petty-6 year project, Meh. Lee going somewhere would be an all time blockbuster level trade. What they got for Arraez, double it. If Lee moves it means they are sold on Julien and I can't see that. The more proper comp is Lee/Julien and its still not close. The same credit Julien gets for showing something at MLB, Lee gets over Walker for showing at AAA. In my opinion, its not close between Lee and Julien either. Lee is a full head taller in value and any value metric you look at will agree. Julien is the guy to sell on, he's the closest to his ceiling. Doesn't mean I don't think he will be a good player, I think he will. Lee's floor is close to Julien's ceiling, as a better more complete ballplayer. I've watched both of them in person several times in Wichita and my eye agrees with all the scouts too.

Lee is in a different stratosphere of value than Polo or even Julien. It's not close, you can't make it a thing.

I do have some hope as to my non-medical eye it feels like they are taking a 5 year approach vs a 5 month one. They knew the plia thing had to go in August. I remember questioning the approach with Polo out of spring training. I thought without pointing to some sort of cut and splice procedure that they were just waiting. As I've thought about it, they were taking a more natural healing approach of therapy and rest that while it takes longer is much more effective for some injuries. As far as I know Polo didn't have any issues with the knee, just the hamstring. Draw hope from a more minimalist approach of long term healing. They could have shot him up all year long but it would not be a long term solution. I may be talking out my schfincter but it's something to hope on. Hope it works for you. As for center field, we do have to deal with the reality of the situation and a solid range of options are needed. One that isn't mentioned in the article that I think needs serious consideration is Kepler. I do not care that the rumor is that he doesn't want to. No telling if any of that is true anyway. The case to be made to Max is that entering free agency as a solid centerfielder, outstanding right fielder with 30 HR pop at 31 is a great place to be. Showing he can play center might make him $30 million in free agency. Will he be Kiermiaer out there? No. Is he a very similar player to Kiermiaer? Yup. Does it save $10m? Yup. Does it facilitate a healthy Buxton? Yup. Can he be backfilled in right? Yup. Can we still work Martin in? Yup. My salary calculator thing reflected bringing Corbin Burnes and Joey Wiemers in and this works with that too.

In life and baseball one obviously observable constant is that a positive attitude and outlook is consistently rewarded with positive outcomes. When you have an elite skill set combined with an 80 grade attitude special things can happen. Really looking forward to what he can do after an offseason focusing on the craft rather than the rehab.

Julien is the centerpiece of the trade with the Brewers. Larnach can be added but I'd fill it out with prospects. Burnes is the ace this year with a chance to sign and QO as a backup if not. Wiemer might turn into a player but plays a good center field in the meantime as Buxton, well, you know. Austin Martin is in a taxi from St Paul regularly. Polo is too good to trade before Lee breaks the door down. The floor stays high and the deadline is still an option if Lee goes nuts. Miranda can hit, dammit, he completes us. Kepler and Polo both are too good and too cheap to replace with prospects or free agents at this time. If they come out of spring training with this group, I don't care what payroll number is. LFG. C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.77M) 4th OF: Joey Wiemer ($0.77M) Utility: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Corbin Burnes ($14.10M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 3.15% under budget

I feel seen and attacked all at the same time.

Mahle wasn't an overpay either but the injury makes it feel like it. He was also pretty established.

They still did the Pablo deal after Mahle. It's Falveys move, he not going away from it now.

I would love this move if they could pull it off. Speaking of TV deals, a giant inroad to a baseball crazy market might help. It's not going to close the gap but it might cover the posting fee over the length of the contract. There is a chance the Ohtani shadow will distract a lot of his potential suitors. Best free agency news for the Twins in general is the Ohtani deal taking months.

Julien is my personal odd man out of the rotation. With a poor glove the bat has to be extra special and he reeks of a two year overachiever who settles into mediocrity. The league is littered with them. Personally, I’m hanging my hat on the pedigreed first round draft picks that can play defense and not have to be platooned, if I have the choice. He’s highly valuable but it might be near its peak. He’s not remotely as valuable as any of the names mentioned. I’m also one who was all for trading Arreaz for many of the same reasons. I’d want a better than zero chance at signing Burnes but with the QO attached the prospect will always be higher ranked than Julien ever was. Doesn’t mean it will play out but it’s a no brainer slam dunk success outcome for an 18th round pick.

Dang it, the one I would have wanted was Jason Benitti.

I’m in. Add Wiemer with a couple throw ins and the off-season is done.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/astros-rumors-payroll-space-maldonado-neris-free-agents-outfield.html Is this relevant?

My working assumption is that they've already been moving around the large capitol spend items over the last couple of years. The Correa spend was something of a surprise both years and had to be accounted for somewhere. The scoreboard update probably happened because it was customer facing while maybe something needed in Ft Myers can wait. Every RIF I've been involved in came after a deep look at other spend first and this probably isn't much different. The easiest and most effective financial lever they have is not signing a Gallo. Fortunately the team is in a good spot for that.

Agree the moves made need to be to bring in legit studs. I'm OK with bringing a pitcher that only almost fills Grays spot if he's young, controllable and projectable but I wouldn't be spending 10-15m on a reclamation project. Also agreed that Kepler and Polo set a very nice floor. If they are getting beat out at a spot that will be a good thing all around. They are also going to provide more value at cost than anything we could sign or trade them for at this point. If we think we want to bring in studs, they won't get it done without major sweetening. Then we lose their production, the prospects and risk back filling at a lower level. The more I think about it the right move is to wait until someone forces them off their spots. I'm also more intrigued with the idea of calling Kepler the primary center fielder against righties. Hear me out, hes not Kiermaier out there but should be solid. I know he supposedly doesn't want to but he took coaching mid-season and adjusted. The team and his agent should present that if he goes to free agency as a solid center fielder that hits 30 HR the Twins won't be able to afford him. He will make a ton of money and free up a lot of roster concerns. Let the hand cannon play right and free up left field for more rotation types. Get what you can out of Buxton and if he's miraculously healed its a good problem. It also saves $10m spend in center field. We are halfway to the cut already. As for the pitching, you and I agree on the target but we disagree on which bank account to use to pay for it. I'm with you that not all of these prospects are going to pay out but they are a store of value from which they can tap. I'm OK with selling anyone but Walker, Lee, ERod and um, thats about it. Those three could go to if the target was a greek god of pitching. My guy I'm shopping is Julien and by himself he can get a pretty decent pitcher. Add some prospects and go for it. Anyone can spend money but truly well run businesses see and move value around. It takes a lot of cutting in the offices to get to one player value cut. Plus the incremental value of losing analytics or scouting downstream value potentially costs much more than saved. The optics are worse but I'd rather not have Gallo than $11m cuts in player development, medical etc. Agree with everything here except the Festa part as the lone untouchable. Do you know something we don't? Question for another discussion, welcome aboard. It does illustrate that we know nothing about how anyone values our prospects and what we can actually get. If the Mariners are in love with Yassar Mercedes, great, I'm not. Go for it.

I was looking at this last night. The Marlins pitching depth is stupid deep, there are about 4 guys who would be fits. They don’t have a RH bat they could send with for a one stop shop though, Soler was the closest thing. Hard to know what they would want with the new leadership though, they may be even more likely to sell pitching assets. My trade away target is Julien and we just gave them one of those so it may not fit.

And see, this is how fraud happens. Make the exaggeration insane so no one notices the raise Julien got.