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Jocko87

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Everything posted by Jocko87

  1. Jocko87
    This is it, 100%. They didn’t say they weren’t trying to win a championship. If they show up at spring training with a group they like and think can win I don’t care what the payroll is.
  2. Jocko87
    This is not at all irresponsible, it's exactly what happened. We don't need inside information to know they had to swallow hard to spend on Correa. They had moved on and spent elsewhere. The reckless framing of this whole thing as a meltdown stinks. The media blowing this out of proportion is just as much at fault as the so-called disappointed fanbase.
  3. Jocko87
    They upped payroll by $30 million dollars! Gotta use facts that don't support your point also.
  4. Jocko87
    I actually think this news makes it more likely to keep Farmer, not less. For the $6m you have a rock solid option that can back up almost all the kids growing pains. That kind of versatility and certainty are more valuable now, not less. Gordon, on the other hand, really has no fit now. Not the money but the roster spot.
  5. Jocko87
    If anything, that's their mistake here, at least the timing of it. I appreciate the transparency as well but with the fanbase prancing like a puppy for news this was going to get jumped on like crazy. Lots of stuff will happen in the next few months. If they show up at spring training with another legit pitcher and a solid CF option who cares what the payroll is? They could have a press conference in Ft Myers and be like duh, the payroll was always going to go down. Do you like what we did? And for the spend in the window crowd, that money is rarely actually spent in what you think is the window. In business and sports, the smart money is spent before the window of success. The Rangers example being used is backwards, they invested when they were terrible, they didn't load up this year. Their big money guy pitched all of 30.1 innings this year. If the Twins end up with a DeGrom situation everyone would lose their minds.
  6. Jocko87
    The proper way to look at this is that after two years of ownership opening their pockets very wide, late in the offseason they are resetting a bit. It seems everyone has forgotten what ownership had to agree to in the Correa saga. Old Twins would have said, aww shucks we spent that money on Gallo. The timing is good with all the kids on the way. Nothing Falvey actually said is a surprise and frankly its not a negative. They are running a good business. Don't equate spending with success. Half the fanbase would complain the signing was blocking a prospect anyway.
  7. Jocko87
    But they aren't publicly traded company, which means a comparison to Amazon business models has no merit. If you want to see the good numbers, feel free to buy in. It's a big check. Don't tell others not to make disingenuous financial analysis so you can make your own disingenuous financial analysis. You don't know how many retained earnings they've dipped into already for example. Nobody has said we can't afford this and that. You are correct that nobody knows any really good numbers, even in this case there numbers didn't come from Falvey but a "source". You are being just as hyperbolic as anyone here.
  8. Jocko87
    This is not unexpected and not really news when you parse the statement. We can be pretty sure they were at least $11m over comfort level with Gallo onboard prior to Correa plus the Vazquez money. The proper way to look at this is that they went wading in deeper waters to get Correa (twice) and are coming back to level. Without the Correa deal they would have been down YOY this year. Maybe they throw more money around but by that time of the year there wasn't much to spend on. I don't see them as low as $125m but 135-140m is reasonable. 2021 at $120m jumped to $149m is 2022 with Correa surprise deal so its been two years well over "budget". The floor has been raised quite a bit. As long as it doesn't go all the way back down I'll be fine. If it was the rebuild part of the cycle it might be different. The way I read it, they are $40-45m overspend on salaries in the last two years. Now they are pulling back conveniently timed with when the kids are ready. It will all work out fine. It does tip their hand a bit they we may see some youth sooner but everyone wanted that anyway, right?
  9. Jocko87
    I'm out on Rodriguez for a few reasons but having shown the ability to pitch in the AL Central doesn't assuage any of them.
  10. Jocko87
    Not an unusual move for businesses in general and as something we don't usually hear about it causes headlines. Combined with the TV deal stuff they have going on it is probably more noteworthy than most times. It's also a pretty big number. If I'm making the loan, I gotta hear a good plan. Their banker may know more about the offseason plan than most of the front office. They also asked for near the full $100m and got $50m. They admit to overspending as part of a plan but its still concerning on some levels. If we hear about a cash call from the 27 or whatever owners, buckle up. Wacha isn't good enough for them to spend the money on when you look around the rest of their locker room. Several other teams including the Twins could afford it and it would be a decent deal.
  11. Jocko87
    Domingo German is available! Next. I wonder what kind of advice he’s getting, he probably should have just gone to the minors.
  12. Jocko87
    Just prospects back for Polanco? I don’t think they make a trade without something for the big club but hard to see what it might be for purposes of this exercise.
  13. Jocko87
    There is room to be sure, I don't think they need to pinch pennies by any means but I don't think free agent pitching is their jam anyway. They do need to be relatively risk averse with big contracts though, one bad one can really jam up the works. That said, I've updated my wishlist. Not that it's realistic but if they can get Yamamoto for 10yrs 200m I'd be all for it. He's young enough that even a year off for Tommy John could be absorbed and they would have any number of exits if they needed it down the road. He will probably be more like 6-7 years at that number but I'd still consider it. I'm just not a fan of spending big dollars on 30+yo pitchers.
  14. Jocko87
    While I wasn't impressed with Kiersey much watching him in Wichita it appears he has turned a corner with the bat and does play a legit center field. Martin is a #5 overall pick who might still be a late bloomer. They wouldn't be turning it over to just nobody (past names redacted to protect their innocence, it wasn't their fault).
  15. Jocko87
    They do have to pick the right guys. Mahle would have been a great fit if not for the injury which is always a risk. The prospect cost for Mahle was not as crazy as it seems and in 3 years I bet it doesn't look that bad. I also have a theory that says the new trainer had more to do with signing off on two damaged goods pitchers in trade than the rough end of year injury run. I don't know who signs off on the medicals but that's where the strategy failed, not the method. Had they been healthy, the FO is a buncha geniuses. And yes, we are doing the level of spend game. I don't know why we wouldn't? We know roughly where they will be within 10-20% and we should be discussing things in that range. We have no reason to believe they will go to $50m or $300m payroll so why discuss that? Its not a commentary on cheapness, just a framework for where they will play.
  16. Jocko87
    But he's worth it. He's my top target to retain of the questionable guys. His fit for the roster is as good as it gets, probably better than any player they could bring in. Good at 4 infield spots, functional in the corner outfield, emergency catcher, RH, can be used as both a pinch hit and defensive sub, great leader, tough as hell he will play in 130 games even with everyone healthy. He will be worth 6m easily. I would expect that he works some in the outfield next spring. Unfortunately for Solano, it squeezes him out as Miranda will get a crack at that spot. If I'm Rocco I'm salivating with Farmer and Castro as two bench options. The permutations are endless.
  17. Jocko87
    When you put it that way I'm OK running with Martin/Kiersey as the Buxton fallback. Unless he's basically free (sub 5m) another middling left handed bat is not the fit for this lineup. At least Kiersey's lefty bat is unknown. I do think there is a good chance to see Buxton in center for a good amount of time next year. The knee won't be the problem just from a tea leaves reading of how they approached it this year. They took a 5 year approach rather than a 5 month. Another injury is certainly possible but I feel like the knee will much better. I would be highly surprised if this is the first money they spend in the offseason. Sadly, if it is, its a bad sign for Buck. Because they get a younger cheaper pitcher they think has big time upside and a qualifying offer attached to help offset the prospect cost. Its the right way to do it at their level of spend.
  18. Jocko87
    At one point in my life I could have been compared to Pete Alonso as well. It wasn't on the baseball field. I do think they would have a spot for a RH platoon player. If he was hitting as projected when they drafted him he could easily fit in a platoon with AK. Unfortunately he's to far down the depth chart and doesn't have a diverse enough skillet to fit in anytime soon. One tool players need that tool to be elite an he isn't there. I'd leave him unprotected and if picked try to work out one of those trade instead of return the player trade things. Maybe with the AFL performance they can work out a trade prior to the draft.
  19. Jocko87
    That's really, really good. At 23 years old, its exceptional. He's already miles better than Atteberry. I listened to the draft on the radio this year and for some reason they thought a radio clip highlight added to the introduction to the player. So many major college announcers are so, so bad, Nash could take any of their places right now. When people are asking for out of the box thinking, this might be a more realistic path. Can't get another 40 year broadcaster starting with a 60 year old. I mean, technically possible, I know. I'm going to find a Reno Aces replay for a longer sample. Filling the dead time is just as important as the highlights.
  20. Jocko87
    Do you have a clip of Nash doing play by play? I'll give it a listen just on principle.
  21. Jocko87
    Is having your option declined kinda like a non-tender? Joey Votto will get his own thread soon but in the Gallo sans OF role I'm probably interested. The question would be who loses out on a spot for him.
  22. Jocko87
    I'll say it too. Why are we crowning Atteberry in the article? That's the first time I've ever heard that sentiment about him. He is flat terrible. My primary source of baseball audio has always been the radio. I sync radio audio to any game I watch because most TV announcers just don't give enough information due to the medium. I've sampled a lot of announcers. Kris Atteberry delivers the least information per word of anyone I've ever heard. Combine that with apparently not needing to breathe he just never stops. Just shut up Kris, for 3 seconds and see what happens. The opinions expressly expressed in the article do not represent the views of my part of Twins Territory, many areas around these parts and pretty much every one I've heard talk about him. My impression was that he was pretty universally tolerated at best. You can try to speak it into existence but I'll be trying to speak it out. If the fan base didn't have Gladden to laugh at Atteberry would be exposed big time.
  23. Jocko87
    Wait'll they get ahold of the broadcast booth. Amiright? @Riverbrian
  24. Jocko87
    I just did a trade value website look at Detmers and Julien plus Larnach or a Yasser Mercedes type prospect is about value per them. If the Twins thought they could make Detmer the no-hit guy more often I'd be on board with that deal. I don't know how realistic it is but the prospect cost isn't bothering me much anymore either. They just have to be able to pick the right ones to send. I'm all aboard for another trade for a pitcher. I don't care about hand and I don't think the FO does either. The most important part is that they find someone they can play up and resign. The guys mentioned in the original post aren't that and carry baggage. Now that all these younger pitchers would also give qualifying offer compensation the prospect capital is much easier to take. Unless you have a Mahle disaster there are multiple ways to pay off a younger guy. No reason to chase the old bulls. Even Pablo will get a QO when someone wants to give him $250m in 4 years. I firmly believe it was part of the calculation when acquiring Paddack and Mahle.
  25. Jocko87
    Same thing that keeps me from digging into rule 5 candidates. I might find something I like but can't see a roster spot. It's a good spot to be in.
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