Jocko87

Wasn’t trying to suggest Miranda blocks anyone, more about how it relates to Buxton and DH. They have to be careful about jamming up the spots they can rotate the no glove guys through. If Hoskins was signed it would be more likely that they trade out of this surplus than weakening the defense. It’s a lot of money for a weird fit.

When coupled with the 4th or 5th pitching staff hire away it points to the view the rest of the league has of the pitching department with the Twins. It's pretty solid. Breslow said as much about hiring our guy. It OK to have nice things and recognize we have nice things.

He's worse at 1st than 3rd? It's a good point that if Hoskins is in the mix a trade for Parades would make sense too. Package it with Glasnow and call it an offseason.

The signing of a primary DH tells us more about Buxton than Kirilloff. He clogs 1st base too, unless Miranda gets traded.

I don’t know that they have an off-season problem. That’s most likely an opinion assigned by people like Onley that need the clicks. I’m pretty confident they aren’t going to drive a lot of revenue for the sport but the ESPNs of the world will benefit. In the new TV landscape that relationship will be different and it’s probably going to prove wise to not be beholden to your coverage overlords.

I had heard about this piece but not read it until now. Holy crap what an ass. This is, as he alludes to, the single craziest free agent negotiation in the history of baseball certainly and even up there with some of the soccer stuff overseas. How dare he not want to make a media spectacle of it. It would only be downside for Ohtani. To think he would uplift each city with a media tour as he broke their hearts is peak stupidity and selfishness. If he could explain how any of this helps Ohtani, I’d listen. He wants it for himself but he’s saying the game and MLB. It goes back to the observation that most of the time these insiders are blindsided by anything major breaking because they are really just mouthpieces for teams and agents. Ohtani said keep it quiet, what do you know, they are quiet.

Over Gordon ten of ten times. The option is enough for me in this role but I think we could also see more from Kiersey in spurts.

As someone who has seen him play several dozen times I'm pulling for him but would not be gutted if he got picked. I have seen him in Wichita a bunch of times and being in tune with the Twins I watch the prospects. I've been trying to remember to not knock the older guys just for being older at the level but it still seeps in. For the record, I was not impressed with Julien at AA either and that may cloud my desire to trade him over others. I wasn't terribly impressed with Kiersey when I watched him either. Personal reflection makes me wonder if I am placing too much weight on age. He can probably be a solid major leaguer but I feel the ceiling is capped. There is probably some considerable research that says old AA players can have a good couple years but it's pretty rare they become studs. I'm not going to be incredibly sad if he gets picked but I wouldn't mind having him as depth to draw from. Perfect guy to leave unprotected.

But RaysDaily is probably saying the same thing about our Julien. He’s available (maybe) because he has some flaws and isn’t a complete enough player to build around at that age. Just guessing. Same as Arraez. Same as Joe Ryan, of said Rays. I don’t see a fit for him but the Rays are hardly unassailable. Several guys from there are Twins staff now anyway.

These Yamamoto numbers make much more sense and they will be far away from anything the Twins would consider. I was thinking they should be all in at the $200m number without really considering what the market would say. A 25 yo stud starter is going to name his terms anywhere from 6 to 16 years and the total will just be math from there. If he signs for anywhere around 7/200 I’d like the Twins to be in on it but that ain’t happening.

Analytics isn't having and using data. Its knowing what data to apply in the appropriate situations. We should not be comparing WAR and OAA (large sample size stats) with the eye test, a guy feeling more comfortable, a guy playing free and easy, a guy that got drunk last night (small sample size stats). The small sample size stuff will bear itself out in the larger samples, either in performance or splits and platoons. The small sample size stuff wins games, the large sample size wins pennants. Getting the combo right wins championships. Incidentally, I'm discovering again to no surprise to anyone, in all my fantasy football efforts I'm an excellent accumulator of talents but a terrible game day manager. I just don't care to look deep enough into WR/CB matchups for hours on Saturday but I pay enough attention to know who is good or going to be good.

Agreed on Royce but man am I excited to see what happens after an offseason on two legs.

There is no would or should be on Correa. He's the core of the core, regardless of performance. It's his team now and the others orbit around him. You don't have to like it but a core without Correa is silly. It's not just a baseball question. Pablo is right on the cusp and a championship core should include some pitchers, ideally. Julien is a role player in this discussion.

Ahem, it’s a Cessna. Thank you. As for the terrible contracts, if this is what we have to complain about I’m pretty comfortable with things.

You can never have enough good bullpen arms but I think the answer to the question is, not yet. We will be squeamish at points of the first half of the season in some spots but they will certainly get all the AAAA guys their chances to figure out who can do what. After that process they can know how aggressive they need to be. The bullpen shouldn't matter much until the last couple of months and they will have similar options to last year. Varland is probably a postseason reliever unless he's a lights out starter and they can add at the deadline if no one pans out. This is a July question.

Love the Brewers as a trade partner. One stop shop would likely be cheaper than three individual trades and their 3 pieces fit very nicely. I would think Burnes would cost similar to the Gray trade with only one year of control and I'd pay that in a second.

Provus is a professional voice with lots of inside information he doesn't share. This almost had to be an approved on purpose communication. He also said the improved reach was a part of him taking the job. I would bet something is finalized.

This might be bigger news.

I snort laughed at CTE. Well done, but part of me thinks don't give anyone any ideas that might sway a vote. 😂

Perfect description of Atteberry. Maybe all the extra talking will tire the vocal cords. He’s not the worst on the call but he’s got to learn to love silence as well. Let it breathe, man!

I’m pretty down in the stabilization of TV revenue unfortunately. It’s going to be much lower than we think for quite a while. The system is dead, but the head will keep twitching for years. The Hollywood studios are still around only because the union chose not to snuff them. Back on topic, I think they will be in on all kinds of pitchers and rightly so but will be spending prospects instead of money. Kudos to them for being in a position to do that. Burnes and the Brewers are my #1 target but they need to do it preseason to keep the QO intact. With the signing of Churio I’ll try to take one of the young controllable preferably RH outfielders in a package and call it most of an off-season. Another depth/make good signing would be fine but less needed if they can get someone at the top.

I’ll grant you self imposed if you grant me that they impose it so as not to go out of business. Self imposed as in mildly responsible business practices. When businesses decide to do what you are describing, running in the red for a longer term goal, they do with an expectation that the payoff will make them good on their investments. No other reason. Never mind that the season or two of loss have already happened, the expectations of return are known. They know they are losing revenue from the TV deal, set that aside. How many years in a row would you suggest they lose all the money they made in the “wildly profitable” years each year? With a decent TV deal, by the way, all available information points to 5-8% margins it those glory years. Public utility numbers. It’s an unfortunate set of circumstances, to be sure, but absent a dying billionaire raining millions they are bound by basic business rationality. Kinda sad but cool we got to see how well the other way worked in San Diego but I’d much rather be in the Twins shoes than theirs. They know what 3m attendance means to revenue. They know how many beers and jerseys come with that. They know what a World Series win brings to the bottom line. They know what kind of revenue a Japanese market brings in case of an improbable signing. They are well aware of all the revenue levels that each step of success brings which in turn limits how many years in a row they can operate at a loss. They don’t have a path to some untapped discovery that all of sudden brings in 100s of millions to climb out of the hole. The businesses that do it all the time usually go out of business, unless they cure cancer and hit a revenue jackpot. Just look around your local neighborhoods and think about what survives and doesn’t. A bailout from MLB would not count as a revenue jackpot, I’m pretty sure. The self imposed is redundant anyway, every team has payroll constraints and they are all self imposed. Disagree with the level that is set if you wish, but the self imposed modifier is an unnecessary dig at a front office that doesn’t deserve it here.

I think the trade deadline is a big part of this as well. When you are relying on so many youngsters they can’t assume they will all incrementally improve, someone will inevitably Miranda. Holding the spend until then might make sense so it can be targeted.

Can we have a moratorium on the phrase “self-imposed payroll constraints“? That’s not at all what is happening.

I go back and forth on the communication of this. I’m very confident they are always playing a long game so I could see some messaging here but let’s be honest, how many casuals care enough to have even heard about it? Not many casuals that do hear will artfully pick up the nuanced points about the TV anyway so why bother trying to communicate something? As @gunnarthor points out, they haven’t always been very good at the perception game so I’m kinda on the Occams Razor side of this. In fact, I don’t see them even trying to play the perception game that much. The most simple explanation is that Falvey was asked a question and answered it truthfully without much consideration for how butt hurt a few fans might get. It’s a very simple comment that’s easily understood except when fanatics get involved. He expects it to be lower. Well, duh. 18 contributing roster spots will make the minimum, 25 of the current 40 man. Replacing salary from last year with younger guys is completely reasonable in most areas except starting pitching. Gallo, Solano, Pagan and Taylor is $20m that we have easy vision to an in house replacement. That’s most of the delta right there. I think it’s more important to understand the things he did not say. He did not say they are cutting costs. Payroll is expected to be lower. Big difference. He did not say they are not looking for ways to improve the team. He did not say they are out on a good deal for a free agent. He did not say ownership made a mandate. He did not say anything about the fabled baseball “rebuild”. He did not say any prospects are off limits when it comes to improving the team. This feels like much ado about nothing. There are very real factors that would point to this as the obvious outcome. The TV deal and two years previous overspending absolutely matter but they deserve a ton of credit for being positioned perfectly to weather this period. It was suggested that this was some opening salvo in the TV negotiations. No chance, they have been working that issue for years and lower revenue has probably been projected for quite some time. When I factor in a terrible free agent market, outside a couple guys they would never be in on, there is nothing here. Let’s check back in Ft Myers and see what kind of sausage they make.