Jocko87

Agreed, I think my main question is would it make more sense to get the ace type at the deadline?

It doesn’t rule out a depth or rehab signing, but what if they gave the innings to SWR? Or Headrick for that matter. What’s Dobnack up to lately? I stay they still win the central.

I've been wondering, as I have nothing better to do in the quiet off season, if doing nothing isn't the correct move. We all are pretty much on the same page that they need another front line starter to be competitive. However, that's a postseason requirement, they have enough to win the division now. Does it make more sense to wait until the trade deadline for getting what they need? They would lose out on a QO for a Burnes by waiting but prices should be lower and they would have more information on the targets and prices. Sure we would all love a stud new starter with 3 years control but do we want to pay that price? What if Miranda goes off in the first half? Varland or Martin? Kepler and Polo and their various replacements? The values will all be different and the reality is they only have a certain number of moves they can make before they run out of things to send. If everything stays pretty much the same as now (it won't) grab the best deadline ace and go for it? Are deadline prices even discounted? I guess I could see nothing being the thing for quite a bit longer.

Just the fact that his former team, with every possible motive to make him a starter, didn't, is enough to question it. The money is probably the same everywhere but from his standpoint he probably went with someone who would give him a chance. If he hits as a starter, the Cards look really bad.

Intent is everything!

Not sure what the Gordon side will present. He’s probably lucky to even be offered arbitration. I wonder if the option year adds a little value to Farmer at the deadline. Even if they are usually declined he might be interested in a team giving him one last year at shortstop. The mutual option is funny, I guess it saves time if nobody sees a reason to negotiate.

And your loss will be my gain when he comes to Wichita. I’m very interested to see him and ERod in the same outfield. Of course, that’s if Erod is still here in the fall.

They have been pretty good trading from positions of strength and even the lower level trades follow the pattern. It only makes good sense as a basic strategy but visualizing it this way should help those with prospectawayitis. Nelson Cruz begat Luis Arraez (and opened DH) CES and Steer were available because of Brooks Lee and Austin Martin. They've traded several relievers (sometimes for bad relievers) but still ended up with a darn good bullpen. The one area they seem to have struggled is LF but I believe they feel like they can fill LF similar to the bullpen. There really hasn't been someone who took over left since they let Rosario leave and traded Rooker. Leave Lamont Wade out of this, lol. It would be a reasonable assumption that someone would have stepped up in left and there were several that should have but here we are.

And it ties in nicely with the high HBP rate. His stance feels like it would lend to that hole. Seems like it would be very hard to get the bat on the ball that almost hits you. It feels like he is cheating out over the plate and killing mistakes. More overall comfort should help that which would help up and in.

I had already forgotten.

Depending on how much cash goes back, I haven't seen that number yet. Hilarious his no trade expired 4 days ago. Makes me feel like Seattle wasn't really counting him as part of their "pitching depth".

Derek, I'm available. This new stretching program is loosening the back right up.

Agreed the Buxton spot on the list deserves its own write up. I disagree with leaving him off this list. If we are talking about indispensable for building a champion, this team will not win a championship without Buxton performing at level or an outside asset providing that performance. There isn't an in house asset that gets there until Jenkins. He's the most important cog in that how he goes, this roster goes. That there are obvious concerns and a higher risk of losing him doesn't make him less indispensable. I get the injury concerns, I really do, but then why would Kirilloff be here ahead of Buxton? Cheaper? OK but that's not nearly as important as being on the field. Would we leave Edwin Diaz off the list for the Mets for missing the year with an injury? Certainly not. Your recent writings about how much performance is still there for Buxton when he plays makes the case that when he's back on the field he's still a game changer. It's not Donaldson in that with Donaldson, the top end is gone and wasn't nearly as good to begin with. Marco Raya is a delicate flower that has never pitched more than 65 innings in a year. He's young and has promise but if he's an indispensable part of a championship roster within 3 years I'll delightedly eat a hat. 13 and ahead of Varland and even Festa is a stretch. For purposes of this discussion, which is not a prospect ranking, Buxton is miles ahead of him.

Doubt we see him in Target Field in 24 but we should get a big chunk at AA and still be delighted with that. St Paul certainly in the mix for a taste. Crazy that all the top 5 from last years draft are basically universal top 15-20 prospects. Twins are solidly in the window so if he's ready, they will be ready.

I don't know how I would sus out these numbers but yes, I'm fine with that. The difference between 4th and 6th best in June WPA in a vanishingly small factor over the course of the season. I think its better to look at the regular season as a percentage of competitive innings. That 6th guy is still a guy they are counting on, a position player is non-competitive. Guys 6-14 need used to figure out what they have, while still being competitive. No banners in June, unless you watch NBA. The NBA load management is an interesting comp too. What do you mean I can't watch Gerritt Cole when the Yankees come to town! Also interesting that I can't stand the NBA and the bad regular season is a large part of it but I'm fine with it in baseball. The 6 man rotation is a step in the NBA direction, unfortunately.

And darts with options gives them time to work on it. Low risk, high upside and they believe in their pitching program to maximize. I’m pretty confident they will get one to hit. Timing is interesting though. Lotta bullets just to replace Pagan. I’m wondering what this says about the Winders and Sands types going forward. Also in conjunction with the 6 man rotation article what does this say about plans for the rotation? Relievers with options are needed if you are expecting a lot of 5 inning starts. I believe Varland is a starter out of camp and this trend would seem to solidify that.

I think the Marlins would be stuck on Lee most likely. They have a desperate need at short and someone like Julien is a tough fit with Arraez already there. I’d hate to lose Farmer off this team but I could see a play with maybe Farmer and Erod would be very interesting to me and move them off Lee. Then Polo staying makes better sense. I don’t know that the Fish would do something without addressing shortstop.

It’s the beautiful balance of baseball. Full season vs post season strategy. Teams want the most, best work from the pitcher at the most important time. The 6 man rotation is a regular season strategy to hopefully be strongest in the postseason. It’s just the sad truth that June innings are mostly time filler. It’s very easy in the game threads to second guess every move like it’s the most obvious thing while forgetting that they are prioritizing different things than we are. Come postseason time, then see what they do and judge. Oddly, Rocco must have been reading the game threads because he seemed very in line with the consensus.

Those prices are pennies on the free agent dollar. When you lay it out like that, I don’t miss a single asset sent.

You alluded to it but Julien needs to figure something out with hitting lefties. At least be functional. His value takes more of a hit being a pure platoon guy more than suffering on defense. If he can do it that, to the moon.

But it's Falveys move, going back to Cleveland. Sure, everyone gets a lucky draft pick that they can wait 7 years for every now and then but it's a terrible way to build a ML staff. Falvey is exceptional at finding 23 year olds with excess value. They didn't luck into that staff last year. It's a fun exercise to go through the Cleveland transaction logs during the Falvey regime. Lots of familiar names.

A batting champion with no power, no defensive position, bad legs and several better prospects pushing him out. I like Arreaz as much as anyone but his value wasn't as high as we might want to think. Were it a Joe Mauer type batting champion he would not have been available. Julien is a good comp with some similar questions. He is absolutely enough to bring back 3 years of team controlled starter. Arraez brought sweeteners on top. Lets not reinvent the wheel of value here when we have a great example of a recent actual transaction.

The Marlins jump on this in half a second. They get two top 100 prospects (one top twenty) and two solid vets that can still be flipped? The payroll wouldn't even cross their minds, I wouldn't even call my boss before I accepted. If I was in trouble I'd flip Polo and Kep for a couple Top 200 pitching prospects and call it a day. It would be a massive haul. Enormous overpay.

Kinda goes to show how bad the trade value site is. It’s fun to match rosters but the model…is bad. The Marlins would do this in a nanosecond and Falvine would be shot out of Minnesota in a cannon.