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Jocko87

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Everything posted by Jocko87

  1. Jocko87
    We just disagree on the scaling. It's the same thing, just different degrees. As for George, how do you think franchises work? And yes, this year I will get a tax benefit that roughly offsets a 3 year stretch of losses where I put a few hundred thousand of my own billionaire funds into it to stabilize. I'll get the benefit over several years but it was the cost of building a long term winner. Anyone with a business knows about lean years. 5 good years in 13 is not a horrible ratio unfortunately. Ask a farmer. Not Kyle. Racking in profits is just a silly buzz phrase.
  2. Jocko87
    All of them. Including my own. Including all the companies I've ever worked for. It's literally the foundation of the tax code. Create value, get tax benifit. I'm sorry if you don't like it. Just don't deny reality. Am I to understand that George has to deal with business reality and the Twins/MLB do not?
  3. Jocko87
    Your argument is basically been summarized to, they rich bah! I made sure to quote this statement so you could see it, read it back out loud and try to sort it into a reasonably economically literate statement. That's not how anything works. We've had this discussion is several different forms throughout the offseason and please trust me as I say again. This is not the hill to die on. It's not even close to a thing that should effect your fandom. I'm still trying find someone who will admit to telling some other business that their products, that are basically free to me and pretty darn good, that they didn't spend enough money to make this product. Like dammit George, this hot dog is fantastic but I'll be damned if I consume another until you spend another 30% to produce it. While I wait, I'm going to drag your name in the mud all over the internet and expect you to tell me how great a customer I am at the same time. Sports fans are weird man.
  4. Jocko87
    My thought when I heard it was that he was cleared to say it. No way to know for sure but a seasoned professional communicator doesn't generally speak out of school on something that huge. They were trying to get the message out, likely because they do hear some of the crap being said. If they had pulled it off, it's genius. Now, not so much.
  5. Jocko87
    Meanwhile, heres an interesting article. Twins come it at #5 on the power list. Crazy, huh. The more interesting part is that for fun they projected what adding all 4 Boras guys to each team would look like. Highly unlikely, but at least they are getting creative while they are bored waiting for signings. Adding Snell, Montgomery, Chapman and Bellinger to the Twins is worth 5.7 projected wins. It would cost something near a billion dollars, but at least they would have done something. You'd think you could get more for a billion, but man, this economy, am I right? WAR used to be cheap. The reality is they are already pretty good and pretty good at these positions. It's not a good year to be a free agent. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39531300/stock-watch-free-agency-trades-spring-training-2024
  6. Jocko87
    We might be close to getting to the nut of this. If your view truly is that they just existed and were gifted a stadium, I can't help you with these topics. None of us can. I exist, dammit! Wheres my stadium?
  7. Jocko87
    Appreciate this article. There is a heck of a lot more going than "cheap Pohlads". This place is going to be unbearable next year. I haven't thought all the way through how this would work but as a hypothetical, what if they used this alleged found TV money to make a big down-payment on an extention for someone? What future cost control can you buy with a 15-20m signing bonus for Lewis for example? It's a big check to write but if it locks in another two years at a decent rate it would be well worth it. It's a better use of this year's money than any free agent out there.
  8. Jocko87
    "Unearned money"=earned disregarded opinion. Plenty of room on the Dodgers wagon. Valuation is not money. You want tax those unrealized gains too?
  9. Jocko87
    Maybe, it's actually lie #4. Twins press/blogger community is a group of fair arbitors, holding the team to account. Reality-its a group of fan boys scarred by a life time fandom of bad team management including penny pinching. There are adults in charge now, and I don't blame anyone for not recognizing it. Several of us on this forum, with significant real life experience in relevant areas have been trying to help everyone through this all offseason but the continuous editorial decisions leading to 4-5 articles like this per week are maddening. At some point, do some journalism. Bring me some concrete information that Aaron Nola was ready to come to Minnesota, if only ownership would have been comfortable with one additional million dollars. I'll be happy to talk cheap owners then but spoiler, Nola never even heard of Minnesota. Bring a list of players they or we actually wanted, that wanted to be here, that they just wouldn't cut the check. I'll wait. In the meantime, understand that a one year TV deal changes nothing. It might actually make next year worse if nothing gets settled in the meantime. I promise you, there are puckered butts in the Twins offices that they didn't get something done. Whatever TV money they get this year is being saved because it will get worse before it gets better at this point. It's unfortunate that the blogger community needs the clicks from transactions to drive their engagement. It sets a perverse set of incentives for rational opinions. Many times I feel they would like a bad transaction to talk about rather than quiet. Better for business. I just renewed my caretaker and am well aware I'm supporting something I hate right now. For every article talking about a potential top 5 offense and defense we get 10 about the cheap liars that are to stupid to beat the bankruptcy court. Let's get it together, stories out of spring training are readily available. The team we have is in action.
  10. Jocko87
    If he's right, top 3 easy.
  11. Jocko87
    It's a fun exercise to talk Cy Young but so many things factor into awards I prefer not to try to project them. If he stays healthy he's certainly on the track to be in the running. Reminder for everyone disappointed in not bringing in another top of the rotation piece, this is what they are aiming for. It's a tough needle to thread and if they don't think they have another chance at something like Pablo, I'm OK with not making the move.
  12. Jocko87
    Never mind that there isn't a single player available that we'd all be comfortable with a long term deal. Then, never mind again that said player would want to come to Minnesota. If they aren't spending wisely, I'm one fan who doesn't want them to spend it. I do believe that if their newest BFF calls needing another one year favor, there is money available. If we think it's 10-15m, ownership might be willing to OK a 10-15m ONE year spend. Otherwise, that money is best spent at the deadline. A little flexibility to take on some salary can make a big difference in what they might be able to get done. I struggle with people who don't understand how big this TV thing is. If they were already watching the money, what the heck would you expect?
  13. Jocko87
    This one was a tough listen, what with being told multiple times no fan could possibly have an opinion similar to mine and all. Question for Aaron. The restaurant analogy was used several times. How many times have you chided your favorite places for not spending enough money to make your MSG chicken? As a long time listener, I am open to the possibility that he has, to be fair. 30 minutes talking about how good things were looking baseball wise wrapping with Aaron saying likely they will be top 5 offense and defense in the AL and possibly MLB. John-to be clear, not an excuse for not adding a #2 playoff starter. What the ever loving f**k? Also, the concept you would be accepting of the team "recouping" money spent going for it during the down years that follow is laughable. We'd have the same silly machinations about billionaires don't care about money and they have no excuse to cut payroll. Why, we could spend the Pohlads money every year. At some point, you have to consider if the fan attitude referenced many times is just a projection of their fans selves. I can't and won't believe the average fan gives two chits if the payroll is 130m or 230m as long as the team is winning. At some point, stop trying to set the narrative and let it play out on it's own.
  14. Jocko87
    He's apparently joined the Loud Outs show on MLB Network and is quite good in his first appearance. They spent 20 minutes with Julien for his first interview as well, he was a little to familiar with his questions for Eddy but was still a good conversation. I would not have expected him to be quite this good out of the gate but I'm very impressed. No word on how many shows during the season but they introduced him as a full time guy.
  15. Jocko87
    I'd like to see them take the Atlanta Falcons strategy. Concessions are priced normally. Counterintuitive but it works, average food spend goes up and less people are scared away. Free kids eat cheap. Figure ten bucks for each kid as a parent and all off a sudden we can go to more games. On the other hand, they probably have some data that the $28 deal didn't work. The deal has to apply everywhere for it to work on the whole fanbase.
  16. Jocko87
    Who writes the headlines at this place? Fumbled is a bit of a stretch, it would indicate they had a modicum of control. The blackout communication isn't great but they also needed to get the conversation to the forefront. The reactions from the team to the news are good but they probably need to lean into it even harder. I'm a bit of a rouge so I'd figure out a way to have the @ prime______ accounts showing everyone how to get around blackouts all over social media. Realistically they need to be doing heavy marketing that they are doing their best to do away with the blackouts. Maybe a free ticket package for people in the blackout zones? One per household, just give us your email and mailing addresses. I do like the free kids tickets idea. Should be MLB standard policy. Hook em young.
  17. Jocko87
    If we look at it from the regular season standpoint, they have to figure out about 1500 quality innings. It's always useful to look at full numbers with percentages for context. If Pablo is 12% (180) of our pitching with Ryan and Ober at 10%(150), other starters around 25%(375/3=125could be 375/6 or 7) that's about 855 innings or 57% of the pitching. I'll assign 3% or 45 innings to blow out or position player pitching to make the math easy. That leave 40% of the innings for the bullpen. 850 innings is about 5.2 innings a start which would be delightful. 40% bullpen innings represents a good outcome from the starters. 40% of the total pitching need is still a huge number. Given the relative prices of starting vs relief pitching its a no brainer to stock the pen, especially to get through the regular season grind. Having a Duran allows them to use the volume approach rather than the Hader/Diaz approach. The moves made have each brought the floor higher with options to keep everyone fresh. It's a great strategy. Speaking of keeping them fresh, 40% of innings being a lot, having several solid inning eaters will be a key. Go ahead and mostly use up a Jay Jackson in the regular season, just don't burn Duran. An improved offense can take a ton of stress off the key guys so they aren't burned early. The postseason roster construction is completely different as they will focus on the 3-4 best guys. Maybe a Varland enters the mix. The depth is for getting the 3-4 guys to the postseason fresh. The quality innings are quality innings approach is the correct way to look at it. Where the innings come from is going to change every year with your roster.
  18. Jocko87
    I will say, if they can agree on an extension I'll entertain the idea of moving him to the outfield again. But not until then!
  19. Jocko87
    OK, here's some others. Probably not an all inclusive list. Altuve is instructive in doing it twice. The player obviously wanted to be in that place. It can be done. No discounts likely though. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/history-of-scott-boras-contract-extensions-with-walk-years-looming-for-juan-soto-jose-altuve-more/
  20. Jocko87
    From a relationship standpoint I would certainly reach out and make sure Boras and Royce know they were interested in doing something. They may not come to a deal now but this is one where first mover has an advantage. The window is now and Boras will do deals like this but there won't be a discount. He just did one with Altuve. Speaking of Astros, Id like to try and emulate a little bit of Alex Bregman with Lewis. I like a deal to try to buy out two years of free agency, he gets to hit the market at 31 again and the Twins get some cost certainty. I'd think that could be done for around $100m. 2m/4m/8m/16m/22m/26m/28m option for 30m or something like that. Throw some MVP bonuses on it. 7/106m and a option, sign me up. I, and probably the Twins, aren't interested in 11 or 14 year type career deals for anyone. He only has 70 big league games, a full healthy season sends the price through the roof.
  21. Jocko87
    Especially after getting "surprised" by Mahle and Paddack. Most likely option is that they took the discount on a guy who has fought injuries for two years, think he's finally healthy and can get decent production. Regarding the Eppler/Gallo question, the Eppler suspension was a "clean this crap up warning" to the league. Eppler wasn't going to be a GM this year and suspending an active GM is another level higher. He probably was an offender but this is a low cost/impact suspension. I suspect we will see some cleaned up injury reporting going forward. MLB would be wise to see the scrutiny the NFL got with injury reporting this year and try to head it off before it becomes big news. It feels like that's part of what they are doing.
  22. Jocko87
    The answer to the mystery is Scott Boras repping everyone left. I'm still waiting for one of his clients to sign there. Someday we will get a tell-all book.
  23. Jocko87
    And this is also a reminder for discussions on the roster construction and moves we have seen this off-season. We can all agree that a #2 playoff starter and some RH OF thump would be nice, nay, required in the post-season. It's not the post-season yet and there are still many paths to solving these questions and a ton of things still to happen. Also, just realized we haven't seen one of the "When is the Falvey pitching pipeline going to happen" articles in quite some time. Now we are struggling with the concept of falling from the #1 fWar starting staff in the AL to being projected as.......#2. Dang it. But also, look how far we've come. Together. Look at us, huh!
  24. Jocko87
    I wonder why the Mets aren't big players this year. Seems like some values they could jump all over. 😂
  25. Jocko87
    But everything else is not the same as last year. Start with full years of Lewis, Wallner, Julien instead of Gallo, Solano and Gordon. That's a pretty good start. I realize this is a pitching thread so I'll acknowledge it is reasonable that the starters regress a bit but that's mostly due to how good they were last year, not that they will be crappy this year.
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