Jocko87

This omits that this projection is 5th best in the entire league and 2nd best in the AL. Current free agents project higher than everyone so this will shift a bit but let not pretend this is a discussion of the mighty falling into the abyss. Pablo is only 4.1 of the total but that's about what we would expect an ace to account for. Every projection system still says they will pitch near the top of the league, both starters and relievers. Are there questions? Sure. More than anyone else? Probably not so much.

I'm a none of the above, this is one of those 6 for 4 things that will sort itself out. Ultimately it needs to be Lewis, Correa and Lee in some order at the infield skill positions. AK, Julien, Miranda will get most of their time between 1B, DH and left field. I'm not excited about Julien at 1B anymore than 2B, I'm putting him in left field if everyone is full strength. The logjam is at a manageable level with Polo gone and we are a full season away from Lee being a 140 game written in pen solution. I've been on the trade Julien square out of these options but I'd like to see him win a batting title to maximize his value first. (mostly kidding) I've somewhat shifted the AK as the trade candidate of the group but if he's healthy I'd get off that quickly.

How many of those 30 years have the Twins both spent wisely and kept the system full? One, maybe two? How many of those 30 years have they done one of the two? Four, maybe five? I understand what you are trying to say, but the Twins are not an example of it. This year, they may actually be in that position. Right now is the exact time to be spending wisely, both in money and prospects. With nothing great available, and more information needed on the prospects, it is the correct time to wait patiently. The deadline will be bring clarity and different questions to answer. I could make the case for approaching this offseason in exactly the same manner regardless of the TV situation.

Whew, the suspense was killing me!

The size and frame is the differentiator to me. I just find it hard to project a tiny guy so high when its basically an inside straight flush draw for someone of that stature to be a solid major league pitcher. His stuff better be good before he breaks down. The Pedros and Lincecums and Wagners are the outliers and there's not really a subset of tiny pitchers that are just OK. Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman and Berrios are all built much stouter as well. Raya is lucky to be 165 with a pocket full of rocks. He doesn't look like a guy that will fill out a whole lot. That's incredibly concerning. If prospect rankings are about projection, mainly, his stature unfortunately makes his window much smaller. Festa projects with many more options for success at the next level.

I think the only free agent I would be OK with adding to this roster is MAT. That includes the pitchers, trade for young controlled unknown stud aside. One of the things that has always bothered me about the RH outfielder thumper conversation is that unless its a Nelson Cruz level bat, that guy hits well down in the order, 8 or 9. The top RH bats are Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Jeffers/Santana. The thump from the RH side has to come from that core group and only probably a Soler hits higher than 7 in the order regularly. A JD Martinez might, but needs to play the field somewhere. MAT and Martin always made better sense to me in that they are a slightly different type bat that fits in the bottom. MAT in the role he was intended for last year is a very intriguing fit for this roster. If he's not starting, he is an absolute bench weapon as a runner, defender and even occasional hitter. He'll hit well enough in spot starts against lefties and the defensive outfield of MAT, Buxton and Kepler is still exciting. I don't want to talk about the Buxton insurance factor, but it's a thing. I'm sure he wants multiple years and a starting role but times running short. Otherwise, I'm good to start the spring. Money and prospect resources are better deployed at the deadline at this point.

At this point I'd rather wait for the deadline. Whole lot can change by then as far as who's available, both on the ace pitcher side and the prospects available side. I'd rather run with who we got if we aren't bringing in someone at the top.

I've been thinking the same thing, there has to be some sort of bargain they can take advantage of. I just don't think they will spend 30m a year for anyone, the range feels more like 10-15m which might put them in the Soler mix. I don't think the pitchers will be interested in anything like that. They will be setting themselves up for the same mess next year with the TV deal kicked down the road. Next year looks pretty loaded with free agent pitching. Their payday is this year.

Interesting new term. Its usually a concern when a former #1 prospect slips down the rankings but when the new #1 is a top 20 overall we can live with it. Good for the whole organization. Baring another non-option signing the runway is pretty clear for him to be rotated up early this year.

I feel like a starter is off the table at this point but a Soler might be a closer option. The TV deal being kicked down the road makes someone signing a Correa wait for next year contract more likely and I can see a 15m spend but not a 30m.

I don't feel like there were any burned bridges. Gordon knew he had a tough route to the roster the whole time, I think. I say I think because he didn't have much case for arbitration. It was the path he chose, not the Twins. The Twins playing out the process shows they valued the player rather than just a random DFA. He was probably always going to be traded, knew it, and the club had to let the process play out to define the value. If he wins the arbitration, he might get DFA'd rather than the Twins adding cash for a reliever.

Was just looking at the Marlins depth chart, almost all their LH bats came from the Twins. They are heavy heavy RH. One more time?

Nevermind Bellinger isn't a good fit, nobody owes you chit.

Fangraphs has the bullpen projected #1 in the AL, #2 overall. The starters are projected as #2 in the AL, #5 overall. An established #1 or #2 is very expensive but 3-4 innings of Ryan/Ober/Paddack backed by a dominant bullpen is another feasible way to do it. It would have been my plan at the deadline last year, load the pen. They'll pitch just fine, even if its a less traditional way. The season will ride on the bats. A RH slugger would be great but they really need the in house bats to produce at level. A RH bat should be cheaper at the deadline anyway.

I kinda figured he was tendered for this exact purpose. He's still good enough to trade for a small piece instead of just letting him go for nothing. Just have to go through the process.

Many who?

Not the Marlins lefty we wanted, he is the Marlins lefty we got. Wish he had options but loading the pen with ML arms is a strategy, I guess. This at least moves the flexibility back to the position player side, pending another move. Probably a pretty decent return for Gordon, they were likely waiting for the arbitration ruling to come in low for better trade value. Probably a decent fit for the fish too. Good luck Nick.

Sure, but does it have to spend for that chance? And does it have to be spent today? No, both answers are no.

Gordon's arbitration journey kinda parallels his journey as a player. He's got some surprising pop when he gets into one but he's not a power hitter. I get the feeling he thinks of himself as a power threat just as he seems to think his arbitration value is that of an injured star rather than role player. I don't know what happened to his defensive versatility but he's in the unfortunate spot of true AAAA player. He'll need to make some adjustments to stick with another team, much less the Twins. He's neither a switch hitter nor utility man.

But also, the devil you know... Hypothetically, were I to buy the Twins I'd be perfectly comfortable sitting this offseason out as far as the big spending goes. I can make 10 cases for it, including letting everyone else get tangled up in bad money while keeping my powder dry. The Twins actually have a one year headstart on the actual reality of the TV situation. I'd love to be in a good financial position when a bunch of other teams have dead money and less revenue. The case for spending is FANBOY74925 is unhappy. That's it. The reality is that internet personality would, if they had the inside information, not be signing up for a lot of things they would be harping for on the internet. Once faced with a real cost, spending dries up. You all would absolutely hate me as the owner, even though I'm a lifelong rabid fan. Until I get terminal cancer that is, then Katie, Bar the door. We buyin. But just free agents, only money. Don't want to hamstring the franchise going forward. Some of you would still hate me.

Can we stop with the doomer crap? At least maybe a pause? A self-imposed pause, one could say. They have chosen a path for the regular season. The postseason is 6+ months away. Things can still happen. The doom and gloom could certainly be largely unfounded, but lets write about it endlessly anyway. What the heck does this even mean? This paragraph basically explains completely why they aren't making it rain despite a one year unknown TV payment. Fanboy and editorial logic is what went out the window.

Sounds like he's already penciled in as the primary first baseman and AK will get time at first and DH mix. Would be interesting if AK works in the outfield a bit again in the spring to keep the flexibility. It's a big year for him in a lot of ways.

Careful, we don't want to turn him into a Danny Goodwin. Props for the extra deep pull, can you translate that into the 20th century? He has been playing other baseball, on tape? Our front office paid top 100 prospect prices for him sooo, the ranking is about right? Just behind our other top 100 prospects probably would make sense. I just love that he is still listed at 165 lbs. Dudes 220 by the time he hits MLB. Hopefully pure athleticism lets him stay in the outfield at that size. He looks like a guy who will always have to manage the weight. As many have mentioned, if he can't stick in the outfield the stick has to go like crazy. The hitting bar for a 5'10 RH first baseman is crazy high. I do like that they finally invested in a RH outfield bat. They have a type, and this ain't it. He swings wrong sided for them. It seems like they have operated under the principle that they can grab a RH power OF bat whenever they need it but then seem to balk at the price when they have the chance. They may be thinking we should develop one of our own so we can afford it.

The things I'm talking about aren't specific to any industry but I did happen on a couple sports examples that are very fresh. Justin Turner perfectly describes the mechanism I'm talking about. Good interview, pertinent part is 3:00. https://www.mlb.com/video/justin-turner-on-signing-with-the-blue-jays And this, from Puka Nacua, is the exact impression a small interaction with the vet can leave. I can't find video yet but I doubt Cooper Kupp said it in as plain of language as described. A different veteran reaction might have worsened the problem. These things are not measurable, don't account for the difference between a Santana and a Soler but they are critically important and we will never know how much to value them. Similar to coaching, the negative can have more effect than the positive.

We have disagreed on the relative effectiveness of coaching so I don't expect us to align on this. Nice to see you crediting some coaching though. Individual anecdotes of various success or failure mean nothing in this discussion, other than to illustrate my point that it does matter when the circumstances are right. I didn't say it in this thread so I'll drop it here. This was from another Santana discussion. Charlie Manuel may not have the at bats, but he had to fill the gap somehow. At every stage of leadership, you have to lead another thing from outside your level of technical expertise. When you get to a director level or therabouts, you are so far from your original technical expertise that it fades and changes and you are no longer an expert. It's similar in sports except they stay closer to expertise, Rocco had to learn pitching but he doesn't have to take on TV deal negotiations. Pitching is something he's very familiar with but it's not his core expertise. Doesn't mean he can't learn to mismanage a bullpen like anyone else. (That was sarcasm, mostly) What Santana can do is turn lights on for people. Like the aha moments. One of my favorite management techniques is the continuous question. My technical expertise is as an integration troubleshooter, if that helps to understand how I look at things. I still work in that technical field sorta and help with troubleshooting from time to time even though I've long since put away my tools. The continuous question is nothing but an effort to have the technician explain it to me like I'm 5. They are two days deep into troubleshooting and I'm barely aware of what they are working on but the conversation is designed to trigger the thought in their mind, not mine. I was first aware of this when I had something of a hot head working for me. He had his aha moment, cussed a blue streak and snatched his prints and headed back the aircraft. An hour later everything was fixed. To this day, I don't know what I triggered but from his reaction I assume it was something he forgot. I was just earnestly asking questions to try to catch up. When you hear stories about talking hitting with Rod Carew or Ichiro it's not the thing that Rod told them to do that is the value. It's the thing they picked up that makes something they are already thinking or partially understand crystal clear. I don't expect all the guys you mentioned to suddenly start trying to emulate Santana, but I do expect the overall quality of at bat to be much better this year. There will be several reasons and we will never know exactly why but I promise you, Santana will be a factor. He's a force multiplier.