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Jocko87

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Everything posted by Jocko87

  1. Jocko87
    I mentioned in another thread the trend is towards a stars and "paid-like-scrubs" league. JD Davis and other post arb players are going to be having tough offseasons as the rules seem to be squeezing that group with the new prospect incentives.
  2. Jocko87
    You are correct, I read it backwards. Does not apply to Farmer. I did go to the CBA for some light reading and the phrase "failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability" is exactly the same in-season, off-season, spring training etc. I read it as they can cut someone for the same reasons as any other time. Contract terms then apply and the Giants are probably good here. From what I read, the teams just got a lot of power in the arbitration process. There is no reason for the team to settle pre-hearing unless they get their terms. What value is it to the player to go to a hearing knowing whatever they come up with will probably be 30 days severance pay absent a crazy spring or injuries? The team retains the ability to cut someone without a guaranteed contract. Farmer, agreeing to something outside arbitration, is in a different category. I was thinking he went to arb for some reason.
  3. Jocko87
    Defensively he's not competitive at 3rd with Chapman. Devils advocate here of course. Plenty can come out at a hearing. I'm sure the Giants are aware of the statement. It will be interesting to see what any penalty might be. Also scary for any arbitration players getting hurt in spring training.
  4. Jocko87
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/03/giants-release-j-d-davis.html Very interesting, not as a player for the Twins, but as another wrinkle of the CBA that wasn't common knowledge. I'm looking at taking Farmer and everyone else through arbitration completely differently now. Had some monster deal come through, paying a million to cut Farmer isn't that big a deal. Reminder that these front offices know this book inside and out, it's their job. I don't have the energy to read the whole thing.
  5. Jocko87
    They purposely made incentives to get prospects to the league faster. I think we are seeing the start of a very tough market for the average post arb player. It's going to be a stars and paid-like-scrubs league in very short order. I'm not sure a settled TV situation changes that, now that I say it out loud it's probably preparing for the expansion push.
  6. Jocko87
    This is the first time in those years that I see a path to going head to head on a stud by stud basis. The teams in the past would have been true Cinderella stories. Lots has to go right with health and regression but the Twins are much more in this arena than before. Looking back on the 2020 series with the Astros with hindsight the roster levels are just different. Last year it looks much better in balance.
  7. Jocko87
    While I'm sure there are rules about how to officially calculate payroll but shouldn't the Twins payroll actually be $142m accounting for money received in trades? The players on roster will be paid that much, the Twins gave prospect capital to get others to help pay for the roster and who pays it doesn't seem to matter to me. That would put the decline right in line with league average at just under $10m and honorable mention on this list. I haven't worried about payroll all year and I worry about it less now. Thanks for putting this together. Had we been Padres or Angels daily this place would have been not fun at all.
  8. Jocko87
    Yeah, that's a good way to look at it. A portion of the replacement will be a better offense and ideally this 70-80 innings will be fairly low leverage. The equation changes in the postseason but getting there it should be fine.
  9. Jocko87
    This is a crucial area and probably a pivot off not finding what they wanted in the starting market. I saw a Jomboy clip saying they were replacing 285 starter innings at a 3.03 era clip from last year (their math). Probably 70 or 80 of those innings are coming out of this group and the volume approach speaks to that. Hot hand will rule.
  10. Jocko87
    Lol, you and me both! I have the plantar fasciitis that makes me walk like I'm 105 for about 30-40 steps then suddenly I can walk fine. The longer I don't move, the more steps it takes to get moving. Standing still makes it start to lock up, which feels very tough for baseball what with all the standing around. I really appreciate what he did last year with this crap. Combined with coming off the weirdest free agency we've seen in a while I'm expecting a standard Correa season this year.
  11. Jocko87
    We can't just have nice things, can we? He's going to have adjustments and periods where he looks a bit lost, that's a given. That he's always adjusted well and is starting from a very high level bodes very well. Top ten left fielder is certainly not out of the question.
  12. Jocko87
    It's a completely different thing if you take a cookie because you mis-scouted or misread the pitch. Joe Mauer was probably the last guy that spit on cookies just because he wanted too. In zone swing percentages are up 4% since Fangraphs started tracking it in 2007. Your modern hitter swings far more than your old timer. Gallos out of zone swing % was up 7% over 2021, the last year he was a functional hitter. Swinging strike % up 4.5% and called strike % down 3.1%. Those are huge swings. I don't have enough data to know that he was chasing for sure but his biggest hole has always been low and away, out of the zone. I certainly remember plenty of swing and miss. He's also been very poor over his career on pitches middle away which is very interesting considering the context of the article. He's a prototypical lefty pull profile. I'm wondering now if Gallo was a specifically poorly suited hitter for this model and that explains some struggles.
  13. Jocko87
    And if it's going poorly, this approach is going to go very poorly. As evidenced by Gallo, expanding the zone early gets you to two strikes quickly and without Arraez like two strike ability slumps abound. If this is the strategy, it really illustrates why some of the at bats we saw last year seemed so poor. They were trying to take advantage of an early pitch that's up and out but if you aren't seeing it well you can expand the zone and boom, two strikes looking lost. Pitch recognition and scouting are key to this approach. Santana and Margot will help as replacements for the two worst offenders but the real improvement will come if they can keep the second half improvements. I wonder how this data changed over the season, and compared to chase rates up and out? The quality of at bat certainly seemed to improve.
  14. Jocko87
    That's not the whole philosophy. Grip it and rip it----when you get a certain pitch in a certain zone. Adjust with two strikes, which is still a work in process, to be fair.
  15. Jocko87
    Love this. It makes so much sense as a strategy. It's not the old slap it to the opposite field and run game, it's what can we get extended on and hit hard. And while it doesn't always end up going the opposite field it has always been a good indication of a hitter being locked in if they are hitting it hard to the oppo power alley. It's also part of why the aren't managing to the strikeout. My personal key for Buxton has always been seeing swings like this clip, hit hard to the oppo alley. 0-0 count he gets one away and does as described. 110mph at 21 degrees plays to all fields. I've always seen it as an positive indicator for Buck but now I understand why. Thanks. https://www.mlb.com/video/dylan-cease-in-play-run-s-to-byron-buxton-x3057?partnerId=web_video-playback-page_video-share Also, I just went down an MLB Film Room rabbit hole. I sorted for Buxton 2B, 3B and HR and just let it play as a hype video. Maybe 15% of the videos featured an inside pitch. It was fun to watch with this fresh data.
  16. Jocko87
    That draft has already produced more major league value than some entire years. I do wonder if they kinda planned to trade a lot of those guys with the 5 round draft in 2020 putting a ton of value in the future drafts. No way Jenkins falls to 5 without that odd restriction on prospect flow. Also, the proper comp for a Petty trade valuation is whoever they pick this year with the QO pick plus 7.6 WAR from Sonny. Petty has to be pretty spectacular to break even on that trade, and I'd still make it every time.
  17. Jocko87
    I heard that too, it's well in character for Falvine or Rocco to leave it open to all possibilities even if the plan is third base for the foreseeable future. I don't see them giving him a firm, you're at third forever answer. Good problem to have but I'd rather solidify the right side of the infield rather than moving Lewis. Unless he can make a platinum glove move to right field like Tatis or pure centerfielder I'd see it as a reduction in value and I believe his agent does too.
  18. Jocko87
    The youngest one that will sign a minor league deal. I can see a need for some innings eaters at AAA as nearly everyone there will have some sort of innings limit. I dont want to use another 26 man spot on anything short of a stud, and I don't think they do either. There are plenty of guys to rotate through the 5th spot but they will need backfill in St Paul.
  19. Jocko87
    Sheesh. I mused yesterday that the Phillies might be quietly feeling like they overpaid for Nola considering how the rest of the market played out but I guess this answers that question. It also might look like a bargain after next years SP market plays out. If the TV stuff is settled it could be a feeding frenzy.
  20. Jocko87
    The data is out there, the snip below is from Correas B-Ref page and there are dozens more lines of situations. I have been thinking for a while that we should be compiling these numbers into some sort of success percentage rate. Regardless of style of hitter, how often are they successful plating the run from 3rd with less than 2 outs? An RBI and a strikeout are too simple for the depth of data we use everywhere else. Interesting that Correa is 1.5% lower strikeout rate with runner on third and less than two outs compared to runner on 1st less that two outs for his career. It would seem to indicate that he is adjusting his approach, at least slightly. As for the strikeout, I'm in the camp that it is just another out. However, its not a metric to manage to. The quality of at bat is far more important over the long run than a strikeout. Telling guys not to strikeout is counterproductive. I haven't watched as much of Margot as Santana but I bet both their strikeout results are not from a focus on not striking out but from a consistently quality at bat. We've watched Santana for years be a tough out in all situations because of the consistent quality of at bat. The strikeout is a lagging indicator. One of my favorite things about the Santana signing is that he will be showing all the kids what a quality at bat means. I'm expecting some spikes from Julien, Wallner and especially Lewis as they get adjusted too. Santana will help them through it.
  21. Jocko87
    We could certainly see it in a blow out. No need to use up Buxton reps in low leverage innings. Having someone who isn't a train wreck in center makes it much easier to get Buck off his feet from time to time. Cheers to the offense getting Buck some rest.
  22. Jocko87
    Watching that as well but rumor is that the Twins made offers that were likely a bit higher. If he doesn't sign somewhere until someone needs an injury fill in it changes what the value would be. He's more than $4m either way. But also, Margot is a $10m player, at least by his contract and Fangraphs as a $10m average for his career. I've started thinking of this payroll as $143m rather than $129m. With $14m being paid by other teams the assembled players are still $143m worth of cash. It could also be looked at as the Twins spending $14m worth of prospects to get their cash number down. Still a $143m roster. Maybe its cope but that makes the decline from last year about on par with the rest of the league. I really like the Margot fit for this roster. If Martin or someone beats the door down, he's a great trade chip again at $4m.
  23. Jocko87
    Listening to Bowden on MLB Radio this morning and he made a really good point regarding the overall market. Nola and his early monster deal put an enormous twist on what the market actually would be. He didn't really test the market and I wonder now if the Phillies privately feel like they overpaid. There were a couple other early deals like Pagan and Gray that are going to seem really expensive once the dust settles. Then Jun Hoo Lee and Hader got huge deals out of nowhere but they will ultimately be outliers. I have to give the front office a high grade both for navigating this crazy market and putting the organization in a great position to weather a tough time. Feel free to assign as much of it to luck as you want but they sure seem to be getting lucky a lot lately. Even without the market-imposed payroll limitations they probably wouldn't have even been sniffing around Snell and Montgomery until the last few weeks. Neither one is a baseball fit until the price hits the bargain bin anyway.
  24. Jocko87
    Chi Chi Rodriguez the golfer? Yes just for the clubhouse presence. It's a tough scene for free agents but if the Cleavingers and Lorenzens aren't getting signed maybe a Brad Keller at 28yo might have to take a MiLB deal? Some of these guys are going to want jobs pretty soon and a younger guy might have Kuechel upside. Late season innings eater for cheap. I would imagine they are all over this market. All the AAA starters will have innings managed for one reason of another and there will be plenty to chew up.
  25. Jocko87
    Not one time have I said I thought they were hurting. I'm quite sure they are comfortable. People don't become billionaires by throwing $30m around cause the internets told them to. And don't speak for my 8th progeny, that's where we hit it big. All the financial teachings of Twins Daily will come together for magic.
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