Jocko87

Also important to note that part of why JD didn’t fit is that it wasn’t the dollar amount of the contract, it was the significance to this organization. That’s why he can go to the Yankees and be a JAG or jag-off, depending. He blends in and isn’t the dude. This doesn’t just apply to the #1 dude. I saw Sandy Leon is now available and I wonder if he would just take a AAA deal just for his leadership role. Pay extra, but get big value working with the young pitchers. Break glass in case of emergency for the big club. I don’t think he would be blocking to much playing time for prospects either.

Agreed, I’m a bit confused with some of the handling of injuries but I’m willing to be patient as the trainer is a position that takes a lot of time to see an effect of their work. I’ve been wondering if Polancos knee is still under the plan put in place by the old trainer and switching it would have been worse. We also have to be comfortable giving credit where it’s due. This front office made a heck of a lot of moves this past year that are exactly the right choice if they are going all out to win. The dumb WTF cheap moves seem to have dried up. I was very critical in the past. I do think Correa has direct influence on some of this but credit the front office for listening too. Several other items are coming together for them as well. I’m seeing good decision making and comfortable with the trainer choice as well. Time will tell.

With zero inside information I can almost guarantee that JD didn’t understand or care that signing the by far, largest free agent contract in the history of the team at the time comes with a leadership component that cannot be overlooked or sidestepped. Most of the clubhouse is going to be influenced by you, again, whether you like it or not. Carlos Correa not only understands this, he embraces it.

No DH, just like the Twins. I see what you did there 😉

Subscribed. Can we do that? Whatever, will be watching this series closely. Correa has been endlessly fascinating to me ever since the first signing when I sent my Astros season ticket holder friend a text that said something like "does this mean I have to like Correa now?" He came back with "Dude, your going to love him." He knows me well. Just for background on how my mind works, I have an MBA with a focus on Organizational Leadership and I can really nerd out on it if I'm not careful. I'm far more interested in the machinations of the back and front office than the on field 6th inning decision even though I love the baseball. I'm watching Steve Cohen very closely but know very little about the Mets. One of the most important leadership factors in life is that we don't always get to chose being in a leadership position or not. You don't get to chose how people see you. The shortstop has some of this as the captain of the infield. Pablo Lopez has some as the pitcher the boss was willing to give the current batting champ for. I also umpire youth baseball 10-16u. At my plate meetings I set the expectation that we (umpires and coaches) are all setting an example for these kids, whether we like it or not, and we will conduct ourselves accordingly. The bolded phrase is the ear worm. Looking forward to the rest of the series!

It's even more than the look, I haven't seen them discuss what data they are looking at but I have to assume they are very carefully watching spin rates, velocity, movement etc and know the signs of impending meatballs. My memories are that most of the time when they tried to push it they lost the bet. Bundy had a couple starts where he was dominant into the 4th/5th and exploded. It will be very interesting to see some on field adjustments this year. For this issue, base running and my personal favorite getting the run in from second to win a game Rocco now has much better personnel options to execute better strategies. They are saying the right things, now show us.

The 3rd time through the order stat seems incredibly messy to me. It’s a lagging indicator of several other better predictive pitcher stats. The number that jumped out to me from the article is 10 of the 12 6+ inning starts were Gray and Ryan. Pitch well, pitch more innings.

Is this the thread where we post $100m contracts and laugh about what a great deal we got? Next door over? Ok, I’ll show myself out.

But which direction are they off? They certainly can be cumulative. I’ve seen a lot of managers look really good because their errors in plan netted out. Profit and loss is like batting average, it’s a good number but doesn’t tell you much of the story. They obviously don’t add up by percentage, we would need raw number to tie back to a percentage. You can’t claim 1.5 or 7.5% without a whole lot of information I haven’t seen either. I thought it was an obvious exaggeration to make point, sorry. I promise we don’t have an exact number for payroll, even of players. Like I asked earlier, what is the insurance premiums on Correas contract. Payroll is the only thing we can get close on, other than maybe tv money but we don’t know what cut of advertising they get.

Yes.

The problem is that each of these estimates can be off 10-20%+- and by the time you add variations on all the categories you can be anywhere from out in left to right field, say 40-50% off. Its just a guess by Forbes. The most accurate item we have to estimate is payroll but we only know the top line number. What do you think the insurance premium on the Correa/Buxton contracts cost? The CPA in the thread laid out a good group of variables. All profit and loss is different on paper vs in pocket. That said, even though this is a clickbait article by a dog **** publication its probably directionally correct in that we have to assume they use the same methodology for each team. I could believe that they were 30m off last year with the late Correa contract and lower attendance but they had already budgeted the Correa money for Donaldson. The loss leader was probably the tanking record and AAA roster the last two months. Adding this depth isn't just good for the team, the bottom line benefits too. Hard to say. As for the Mets, that number makes sense too. However, I will scream it from the rooftops again and again-do not look at the Mets as a sporting team, look at them as a hedge fund manager would. That -180m is not a loss, its a capital expenditure that will probably be depreciated somehow. Everything Steve Cohen is doing follows the hedge fund takeover model where they will spend heavy up front to make the business what they want as quickly as possible. For example, buying players saves prospects and preserves future value. Its strategic. Love it or hate it, having operating capital opens doors that aren't available for other businesses.

I don't have a problem with guys like Pagan and Hoffman in the last spots as they both do have an upside to find that could be very valuable. Properly used, Pagan has a rubber arm and can just take the beating for 3-4 innings to save other guys in a lost cause game. My more pressing concern is that they will run them out there over and over and over in pressure situations and not adjust the approach or cut bait timely. They have a track record for this and it has to stop. I'm also a big fan of throwing a young starter in the bullpen to get them comfortable with getting major league hitters out out. Ober doesn't fit this profile as discussed many times and I'm not the person that can exactly say who does. I am pretty sure though than one of SWR, Winder, Festa, Sands etc would be more valuable and develop better in the bullpen than starting in the minors. They can still be a starter eventually but learning they can get ML outs is powerful. It reminds me very much of when Polanco came up from A ball when no one was available. There was plenty of chatter that he was picked as a guy that was a sacrificial 15-20 ranked prospect we would not mind losing. I guarantee he didn't see it that way and getting that taste and a couple big hits almost certainly altered his mindset and trajectory.

There's that golf thing in Saudi Arabia.

This is how you build a rotation. Sure, hitting on a Corbin Burnes in the 4th is nice and all, please keep trying for that but good depth is where its at. Quality in the depth is important and targeting solid 2s and 3s is the way to go. It will serve well in the long regular season with a legit chance that one of the 2s is pitching well enough to comfortably take on an ace in the playoffs. Winning a World Series takes a run of luck and all you can do is put yourself in a position to get lucky. Then, when you hit on a 4th round pick, or luck into a #5 draft pick stud your rotation is suddenly the Astros or Dodgers. I went down a baseball reference rabbit hole on the Guardians/Guardians pitching that young Falvey supposedly guru'd out of the ether. Never mind how the timelines don't quite line up with his front office tenure, its quite eye opening where the big names came from. Lets just say that by next year the Guardians fans will think he formed Joe Ryan with his own hands. His best pitching draft was probably on his way out the door in 2016 with Mackenzie at #42 and Bieber in the eeerr 4th round. Pulling for ya, Marco Raya, Andrew Morris.

It's not that you did a wrong thing, it how you react to doing the wrong thing. It's very tough for the young guy to stand up to the old guy also, ahem Beltran, senior personnel almost always get stiffer punishments. Two rules to live by as a hiring/firing manager.

I think both of them would be turning it down, even after this year. Lewis with the Boras factor and Lee would wait to drive the price up. We should certainly wait until we know how the draft plays out. One of the pitchers would be in line for this money first in my mind.

The Gallo signing makes more and more sense the more we talk about it.

The 47 yo bachelor part hits a little close to home. That's not discussed in North Dakota.

This is the time to get the potential ace, heres hoping one of them is there at #5. The thing about the #5 pick is that any college player they take they also have to look at where they fit within the current roster projections as we should expect them within the 1-2 year range. The ace would be the best for this but barring that it would almost have to be a college outfielder if they are thinking nearer term. I do like the high school angle if they don't project someone to be fast help. That prospect could anchor the next wave 3-4 years down the road. This is also a time where having a good relationship with Boras and Boras clients could be mysteriously handy. Lasts years wild card, Rocker, is a Boras guy (interesting Mets angle also). Both pitchers could very easily be Boras clients and we know he's not afraid to do whats needed to get his client what they are looking for. Unless they are set on 1-1, going somewhere on the rise where you can be in the league in 12 months would have to be appealing.

I would think it would be a no-brainer to bring him back at that production level. It would also help make Gallo a flip candidate at the deadline. Even if he was just solid .250 with some pop, $10m isn't outrageous. But I don't know that his production will matter so much in the decision to keep him or not. Performance of Wallner, Larnach et al. will probably be a bigger factor.

I'm also very curious how they plan to use Taylor off the bench. I could see him being a late inning weapon in a couple situations. -New extra inning rules finalized hopefully means they will be focusing on getting this damn run in with a purpose. Taylor should be a very good pinch runner with the ability to steal 3rd if needed. Maybe not quite Terrance Gore but he still has a lot of speed and always been a pretty good base runner. -Having the rest of the outfielders being solid at worst defensively will limit his chances as an automatic replacement in late innings and that's good as it keeps him free for the pitch running option. I am, however, kinda infatuated with the Gallo shift and what the Twins can do with a Buxton, Taylor, Kepler outfield alignment. Buxton can cover left and half of center (safer, covers more ground, less collisions) while Taylor and Kepler do a shallow/deep right field? I'm pretty sure they have more in mind for Taylor than just Buxton insurance and interested to see what it will be when the real games start. If they can use Lewis and Farmer as RH outfield options they may want to keep him in a more flexible role.

Ain't it grand to be having this discussion based on performance?

I believe this is where they were wrong last year. When he's hurt, don't. I know he didn't want to go on the DL and there was no depth behind him, but his knee situation was horribly mismanaged last year. Knee leads to hip and hip leads to more days off leads to shutting down for the same amount of time anyway. With the benefit of hindsight, a 6 week knee cleanup in May would likely have worked out much better. Hopefully the new trainer will make better decisions in these types of cases. An injury prone player trying to push through injuries seems counterproductive to me. The depth will help make those choices easier.

I used Taylor specifically because he is almost guaranteed to be around all year for defense and pinch running. He will get a ton of run especially before Lewis comes back. But yes, many options help make Gallo a very valuable asset around the deadline. I could easily see getting a return similar to what Nelson Cruz got.

Hoping he can approach these numbers to max his trade value. I can't see a scenario where he would be here next year, if he's raking he will be too expensive and if not he'll get flipped for BPA. Best case is Larnach/Taylor play well enough to make him expendable.