TopGunn#22

Anybody with any potential is a couple of years away and Jeffers projects to be a career backup who does nothing well but isn't horrible at anything except throwing out base stealers (some of that is on our pitchers). Better invest in a guy who can help them immediately.

Contreras would be a primary option. Sorry, I just don't think Jeffers will EVER hit and see him as a career backup. Putting any faith in Jeffers giving them anything other than mediocre production both offensively and defensively is misplaced hope. All Contreras would cost them is money. Otherwise, a trade for one of the Blue Jays catchers or Travis d'Arnaud from the Braves is needed. William Contreras is the catcher of the future in Atlanta. Maybe they would part with d'Arnaud. And as long as it seems a near certainty that Correa will move on taking the money it would take to keep him and signing someone like Bogaerts and shoring up the catcher position seems like a good idea. What if the Twins could parlay the loss of Correa into the additions of Bogaerts, Contreras and Woodruff (trade). It's tough to see Correa move on, but that kind of reallocation of assets would make the Twins a much better team for 2023.

Nice job mitch ! I appreciate the time and thought you put into this. I'm with tony&rodney on this though. I'd like to trade for a stud #1 to head the rotation. I like the Bogaerts signing if Correa signs elsewhere. He's a solid bat, possibly more consistent than Correa, but nowhere near the glove. He could transition to 3B in a year or two while the Twins track Lewis, Lee and even Miller. So who between Lopez or Woodruff should we go for? Both of them are relatively affordable for two more years. Lopez is valued at 38.7 and Woodruff at 37.8 according to BTV. A trade of Woodruff (37.8) for Miranda 26.4, Winder 8.3 and Cavaco 2.4 (40.0) would work. You could do the same for Pablo Lopez. Lopez is younger and very talented. Woodruff is a horse who would be that guy you could count on for 6-7 innings every outing. Tough call, but I'd go for Woodruff. He's just more consistent. A staff of Woodruff, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Ober would be solid. I'd break Maeda in slowly and if one of the SP's not named Woodruff wasn't sharp, Maeda could move into his spot. Nothing against Narvaez, I'd start him instead of Jeffers (I think Jeffers is pretty much a backup). But I still want to call Toronto and get Kirk or Jansen to be our primary catcher. I've got to look at Toronto to see what they could use and determine the values of Kirk and Jansen. Gabe Moreno is their hot young catching prospect who got a decent look this year and Toronto has plans for him. They can't play all three. Stay tuned on this one.

I would MUCH rather trade for a proven workhorse and a guy who would be our clear #1 than signing Rodon. I still like Senga as a sneaky good value. But, you can just positively NEVER have too much pitching. I wouldn't include Lee or Lewis or Miranda in any deal, and I really doubt the Brewers would want Lewis with his sketchy injury history. The Twins have plenty of talent in the pipeline. They are far from this empty cupboard some are claiming. I would do a deal something like Ober, 19.5 BTV, Winder 8.3 and Celistino 11.2. Woodruff's value is 37.8. This deal is a 39.0 value. coming back from the Twins. The Brew Crew gets two young, controllable pitchers and a RH CF'er. If they could buy into a Polanco move to 1B or 3B you could mix and match from that. It's hard to predict what the Brewers will do, but I'd be on the phone finding out in a heartbeat. The possibility of adding Woodruff to the top of our rotation? I say YES ! YES !! YES !! You can NEVER have too much pitching. Because as long as you have pitching, you're always in the game.

Ted, this is the conundrum of the Twins FO. They were brought in to develop a pitching pipeline, but what happens to that plan when season after season after season the young pitchers suffer injuries that stunt their development ? Well, you go out and get guys like Mahle and Gray. I see where "jun" is coming from about getting 3 effective long relievers but I would argue they have them already. Winder, Varland and Maeda should fill those roles. It's the perfect way to ease Maeda back after TJ surgery and I like putting young guns like Winder and Varland in those roles. Sometimes they would be high leverage, sometimes low but that's the role I'd season those guys up with. Ober as well if he's not already in the rotation. The Twins may not have guys like Mahle and Maeda ready to be starters at the opening bell next season. That's why this FO needs to "evolve" their strategy and either sign a Rodon or Senga, OR, trade for someone like a Pablo Lopez or Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff would cost a LOT, but he would be the clear #1 and someone you could hand the ball to in a playoff series opening game and have a solid expectation for a win (and wouldn't a playoff win be a GOOD thing Twins fans)?? The cost for Woodruff was floated in an earlier post by someone. It included names like Brooks Lee, Lewis, Miranda, Balazovic, Winder, not sure if Larnach or Kepler were mentioned. The Brewers would need a pitcher coming back as well as some young talent. Maybe a LH hitting outfielder ? Let's dig into this: Trade #1 Twins get Woodruff 37.80 Brewers get Ober 19.5, Polanco 15.8 (would move to 3B) and Cavaco 2.4 = 37.70 Trade #2 Twins get Woodruff 37.80 Brewers get Ober 19.5, Winder 8.3 and Celestino 11.2 = 39.00 There really isn't anybody else on the Brewers I would go for. Everyone they have is either REALLY expensive or a very low value. BTV only gives Kirilloff a .70 rating. Better off keeping him. Brooks Lee is 38.9 so a one for one swap could happen, but the Twins shouldn't do it. Lewis still has 20.4 value but is also someone the Twins wouldn't part with. Trade #2 is probably better for the Brewers because there is uncertainty moving Polanco to 3B (although they would LOVE his bat). With Wong at 2B and Adames at SS a move would be necessary unless Polanco backed up both and DH'd. Larnach's value is 30.4 so him and Winder could easily get it done and I'd do that trade to add a Stud Bulldog like Woodruff at the top of my rotation. Remember, trading Larnach still leaves the Twins with Kirilloff, Kepler and Wallner. Someone there is expendable and with Kirilloff's value plummeting he's not going anywhere.

Agree 100%. Pay for quality, get quality results. A gamble here and there to me is acceptable. To build an entire strategy around hitting it big on the Happ, Shoemaker, Archer and Bundy types just wreaks of a half-hearted effort. Pay for quality. Get quality results. Pick your spots. I would say that even though the Twins did not make the playoffs, the Correa move justifies this philosopy: Pay for quality. Get quality results.

I still see Senga as the sneaky good move leaving the Twins enough money to add a good BP piece and trade assets to acquire a starting catcher and maybe a RH OF bat. If they want a workhorse RH pitcher that needs a change of scenery, make a trade with Colorado for German Marquez and get Connor Joe or Randall Grichuk thrown in. Certainly call Toronto and inquire about Kirk or Jansen for a starting catcher (Moreno will be off limits). Or, check in with the Braves and see if d'Arnaud might be available. The Twins have options, but I'd like Senga and Marquez in the rotation with Maeda in the BP until he's efficiently ramped up. They could even go with a 6-man rotation. Duran and Lopez at the back end is fine for me.

I appreciate the time and detail that went into this piece. Rodon would be a true #1 and benefit the staff by pushing everyone down one peg. The key with Rodon: are his injuries behind him ? His talent is not in doubt. If he could give you 180 quality innings at the top of your rotation he would be a great investment. None of the other guys really do much for me though when I compare what they could bring to the table in comparison to our young arms coming up...except one: Senga. Mid-90's fastball with the ability to hit 98. A split finger or forkball, if you will, that looks NASTY. To me, his price is right and he brings a different wrinkle to the staff. Plus, it can't hurt to have Maeda as a teammate. I like our bullpen with Duran & Lopez heading it up, but one more quality arm wouldn't hurt there either. And I don't think you can simply dismiss the possibility that the Twins consider Duran as a rotation piece. Not saying it's likely, just saying it's "possible."

Thanks for a good topic Ted, this really got the comments rolling!! I'm pretty much in the tony&rodney/Doc Bauer camp on this one. First, you can never have too much pitching, especially at the rate our pitchers get hurt. But I think much like last season with Buxton the #1 issue needing to be settled, Correa is the #1 issue this off season and nothing much could or should happen until that is resolved. I think the Twins have a pretty decent idea what the price for Correa will be, but you just never know. I certainly didn't expect him to land with the Twins last off season. While I understand the idea of Urshela playing some SS before Lewis is healthy I'm not one to go that direction. I like Gio at 3B for one more year. If Correa doesn't work out, I'm O.K. with kicking the tires on Bogaerts, or possibly settling on Kiner-Falefa or either Mondesi/Lopez from the Royals. With the exception of the Rogers trade to San Diego (which still could be a plus if Paddock can get healthy and return to expected form) I thought the FO did a pretty good job. I like the acquisitions of Mahle, Gray, Julio Lopez. Each has a meaningful spot/role on our team going forward. The pitcher I would target is Carlos Rodon for all the obvious reasons and he's actually LEFT-HANDED !! Kepler's trade value is just too low and at this stage of his career he's a perfect fit for a 4th outfielder and late inning defense. I've been saying that with Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Max something has to give. If the Twins fail to land Rodon (but maybe even if they do) I package Larnach and other pieces to Miami for Pablo Lopez and maybe a bullpen piece they are willing to part with. We have an overabundance of LH hitting OF'ers and Miami has an overabundance of pitchers. Let's make a deal !! We still need a dependable catcher. I'm sorry, Jeffers is a backup. Toronto has top prospect Gabe Moreno, Jansen and Kirk. Make a deal for Jansen or Kirk. Maybe Atlanta wants to make William Contreras their #1 catcher. What would it take to get d'Arnaud ? Please, just fix the catcher position.

Yeah, I threw Bryant out there because we REALLY need a RH bat and he would be a perfect fit in LF for the Twins. But whoah baby, that contract is ridiculous! How much would Colorado pay ? I would really only consider Bryant if Correa leaves and the Twins add someone like Kiner-Falefa, a great glove, versatile at several positions, but not much more than a #9 hitter.

I like what you've done. It doesn't hurt to put something out there that is "over" budget if you back it up with good moves. And your point that you could be closer to $150 million with a couple of tweaks is honest. Still, our Rally Goat, Richie, makes a good point with what Aaron Gleeman got out of St. Peter in an interview, and rosters going forward should probably focus on budgets of $115-$130 million to be a little more realistic. Keep 'em coming ! Always fun to see what guys are thinking.

If we fail getting Correa back, my #1 priority would be to replace him with Bogaerts at a lot lower price tag. X-Bog can flat out HIT and he's got a couple years at SS left in him. That would fit well with the Lewis, Brooks Lee, Miller timeline. If Boston wakes up and resigns X-Bog then I'm focused on Kiner-Falefa who is a superior glove and who has positional flexibility. I also would look to talk with the Royals about Mondesi and Lopez. I just don't want to chase old guys like Iglesias or Andrus.

The Baseball Trade Values simulator only gives Kepler a 5.6 value. Not much you can do with that. You could trade Kepler to Colorado even up for German Marquez, a 27 year old SP who has underperformed the last couple years but still has good stuff and could benefit from a ticket out of Coors Field. His value is only 4.3. That to me is a viable buy low candidate. One interesting player Colorado has is Kris Bryant. He has a a negative 109 value. His contract is bloated and he can't stay healthy but his RH bat in LF could be a tremendous addition to the middle of the Twins lineup. But...can he play 140-150 games? What else could the Twins get back from the Rockies if they took Bryant off their hands ? How much of that contract would Colorado be willing to pay ? A conversation with them would indicate whether it's even realistic.

Max is one of my favorite players on this current Twins team. But I'm frustrated by his lack of adjustment offensively. He is still a positive trade value and all you need is one trade partner to make something happen. Weitz41 has identified three teams that could have interest. I'd add Colorado to that list. Certainly if I'm talking to Miami I'm angling for starting pitching. The Marlins have tremendous pitching depth at the major league level as well as in the minors. It's also clear to me that SOMETHING has to give when you have Max, Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner all left-hand hitting outfielders on a roster that desperately needs a RH bat in the mix.

I can't see the Mets not retaining Edwin Diaz, but someone had a Twins roster which included signing him and that roster was still something like $6-$7 million under budget. If you had Diaz and Lopez at the back end of the bullpen THAT'S when you consider Duran for the rotation. A solid STARTER is always more valuable than a solid relief pitcher, even a closer. Duran had a remarkably healthy season as a relief pitcher, but he'd be WAAAY more valuable in the rotation for 150-175 innings. And Alcala is a wildcard who could fill a key spot in the bullpen as well. What would our rotation look like if we had Rodon at the top and Duran in there somewhere ? I'd be pretty intrigued with THAT.

I agree with Rodon. But the Giants SPEND, so would they let him get away ? We need a starting catcher (Jeffers is a backup). I'm not as down on IKF as some. I'd be fine with him as a bridge to Lewis/Lee/Miller, but I'm not interested in Hicks at all. He's the Yankees problem...they can have him. The Montero investment is solid. A good non-Correa solution at SS could be Bogaerts. Certainly not the Glove (but adequate) but a better, more consistent bat than Correa and at a $175-$200 price ($100-$125 million or more LESS than Carlos). Good work on this whosafraid ! Keep them coming.

GREAT post Nash ! First, I just love listening to Pedro Martinez talk baseball ! What an honest assessment of his pitching career. As good as he was (and boy was he good) he's spot on in admitting he was always reluctant to let the bullpen come in to finish the game. If he'd have pitched to a 7-inning expectation (pacing himself for 7) how much better could he have been? It's in interesting thought. Correa's breakdown was great as well. I totally agree that Bogaerts would be a tremendous consolation prize. He's NOT a Gold Glove SS like Correa, but he's adequate. He's a better hitter though. More consistent, less prone to slumps. And he aligns with the Twins short and long term plans in that he can shift to another position as he ages while the Twins determine if Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee is the SS of the future. Of ALL the SS options the Twins could have "post Correa" I think Bogaerts is the best one to go after.

I'm with Mike Link on this one. I know offensive stats have ALWAYS found their way into this calculus. How else can you explain Rafael Palmiero winning one when he was the Orioles primary DH years ago?? But the Arraez nomination just floors me. He's basically still learning position. Would anyone ever confuse Luis with Hrbek, Mattingly or Wes Parker ? Luis had a great year with the bat. An "O.K." year with the glove. Not bad, but not Gold Glove worthy. That's my assessment after watching 160 of the Twins 162 games this past season. Happy for Max. He deserves it. Correa is a premium glove at SS. He should be there because few are better throughout ALL of baseball. Watch Bogaerts win it. That would be laughable.

REALLY nice job Riverbrian. I like the 2nd one better. Subtracting Hand and adding Drury has a much greater positive impact on the team/roster. I think Hand is unnecessary when you bring in Diaz and we already have Duran and Lopez. Add in Alcala and that is some SERIOUS firepower in a BP. Yes, we need a LH option other than Theilbar, but I'm fine with Moran. Drury adds a solid RH bat and a little positional flexibility. Hanniger is interesting but Drury could make him unnecessary as well but I love your creativity. Mateo is a good idea as well, but I'd rather trade for someone like Kiner-Falefa instead and just make IKF the starting SS. He's a solid bridge to Lewis and also offers multiple positional versatility. Seeing a plan like this gets me excited about next year (without Correa). YOU. ARE. HIRED !!!

Thanks for listing a couple options Matt. I always appreciate when someone "does the work" to get the comments rolling in on TD. None of these guys do anything for me though. Well, Hoerner does, but if the Cubs signed one of the big name FA's they'd probably just move Nico to 2B or 3B. He's not going anywhere. Correa should be their primary option, but if he actually DOES get the huge payday, it probably won't be from us. I don't like 30-somethings SS's and if Rojas was an option as a bridge to Lewis or Lee I'd want him as a throw-in in a trade for Lopez. The Yankees will have both Cabrera and Peraza on their roster next season so Kiner-Falefa is the next best option to me. However, as I've mentioned before, I'd also check in with the Royals to see what it would take to acquire either Adelberto Mondesi or Nickey Lopez. Bobby Witt Jr is the SS in K.C. for the next 10 years. Either of those guys would be an interesting pickup.

I'm with Cris E on this one. Toronto has THREE (3) !!! catchers and even with a DH can't possibly satisfy all of them in terms of AB's and playing time. Jeffers is nothing more than a career backup. We need to get on the phone and call the Blue Jays. Gabe Moreno is their prized prospect. That means he's not going anywhere. It comes down to Kirk or Jansen and either would be a massive upgrade behind the plate for the Twins. I mentioned in an different thread that with Austin Martin blistering the AFL could one of the options for him be a trade once his value ticks back up when the AFL concludes. Might the Blue Jays be interested in Martin in a deal for either Kirk or Jansen ?

This is certainly GOOD news that his bat is coming around. I just don't see him as a SS with Lewis, Lee and Miller in the system. I see him as a LF'er who can handle CF when Buxton is hurt and a top of the order hitter (#1 or #2) who gets on base ahead of the meat of the order. One other thing to consider: Is this the time to include Martin in a trade once his stock climbs at the conclusion of the AFL?? He certainly could have a place on the big league roster, but he could also be used to bring in a more accomplished player in a trade package, be that a pitcher or a hitter.

In the immediate future, Urshela could be counted on to play some SS until they could consider Lewis, but that's a good chuck of the season and too risky for me. I'd like to bring Correa back but feel as if that's our least probable outcome. There's just no way to know WHO would be interested in him at at HOW MUCH. The Twins will have to ride that tiger and see where it leads. I'm not interested in old, has-been SS's like Iglesias and Andrus. I'd rather approach the Royals about a trade for either Adelberto Mondesi or Nicky Lopez. Mondesi has great potential but is NEVER healthy. It's a Byron Buxton "Ground Hog Day." Still, if it wouldn't be too costly, I'd risk it and count on our crack training staff to get 150 games out of Mondesi (insert laugh track here). Lopez is a pretty solid glove man at either SS or 2B. Neither he or Mondesi have any future at SS with Bobby Witt Jr now in the majors. The Royals could play Lopez at 2B or look for more offensive firepower than Lopez can provide. I like the idea of checking in with the Yankees for Kiner-Falefa. I believe BOTH Cabrera and Peraza will be on the Yanks major league roster next year and Kiner-Falefa could be acquired. What would the Yankees want ? Let's find out.

Mondesi can't stay healthy (hello Mr. Buxton) but if I could sign him for $6 million I would in a heartbeat. I just LOVE his talent and potential. I'd rather gamble on youth and potential than throw money at old has-beens like Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias. The Twins could sign a non-tendered Mondesi and STILL see Royce Lewis get healthy and become the SS of the future. Having game breaking speed like Buxton, Lewis and Mondesi on our team could prove very interesting. We'd need a new manager though. Rocco consistently attempts fewer SB's than any team in the league. His initial year, record setting HR team broke him. He has no desire or ability to "create" runs. Nicky Lopez would require a trade, but that kid can pick it. As long as the Royals have Bobby Witt Jr. there's not much need for Mondesi and Lopez unless K.C. plays Lopez at 2B. My "preference" would be to resign Correa. But if cost is "prohibitive" I wouldn't mind looking at Mondesi or Lopez. I'd still like to have serious discussions with Miami for young SP'ing by dangling Larnach or Wallner or even Kirilloff or Kepler. We have FOUR (4) !! LH hitting OF'ers and at most can play 1 or two at a time. I'd like to follow the Cleveland model and stockpile power arms. I Rec'd a LOT of comments from a lot of different viewpoints because I believe there is not a simple answer, nor an unquestioned "correct" answer to this question. We have Lewis and Brooks Lee who could very well be major league SS material. We also have Miller who may be as well. None of them can give the Twins an entire season at SS NEXT YEAR. Something needs to give.

I think the Twins have plenty of young, talented pitchers to fill out the roster to start the season. I would add one more veteran arm like Rosenthal (big potential, health is a risk) to give the back end a little more flexibility. Omar is a fine option for backup catcher. He's got a solid bat and glove but we're still allowing Jeffers to be that "catcher of the future" we all think/hope he can be. I'd still like to consider a trade of some sorts along the line of Larnach or Kepler and some other pieces for Pablo Lopez. That would remove the need for Rosenthal and push everyone down a peg putting Ober or Maeda in the BP to start the season. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Carlos Correa ($37.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($2.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Winder ($0.7M) RP: Varland ($0.70M) RP: Trevor Rosenthal ($2.50M) Payroll is 7.57% under budget