TopGunn#22

Great article Nick!! I have been very critical of this Twins Front office in back to back years, complaining that they seemingly approached each off season either without a plan or a slave to a specific priority and thus chained to inaction while mid-level FA's that could have been a good fit flew off the board. However, I think this has been by far their BEST off season and while there was some luck involved with Correa this F.O. displayed patience and resolve as the Correa situation evolved and eventually came out the winner. I could nitpick and say that Adam Duval would have been the RH bat counter to Gallo but I won't. There are still "ifs" that need to pan out, primarily the health of Buxton and Correa, Kirilloff and Larnach, and just about everybody on the pitching staff, but This F.O has built a team with a LOT more depth and better options to begin spring training and with a pipeline that includes Royce Lewis, Eduard Julien and Brooks Lee there could be impact bats that augment the lineup at some point this season. I still don't think the Twins are done either. I'd like to take a flyer on Alex Reyes, the quintessential "boom or bust" arm in a bullpen and I still think Kepler gets traded before spring training. It could be a fun baseball season in the upper midwest.

This is a good topic Nick. We already have a lights out closer and that's fine with me. But the prevailing wisdom is that a dominant SP is always worth more than a dominant closer due to the higher number of quality innings delivered. I don't think the Twins should completely settle on Duran as a closer but it depends what happens with other guys on the team and in the system. Alcala is pretty much a bullpen guy now. What if he explodes this year? Jorge Lopez has shown he can be a quality closer. And what about Matt Canterino? He's also got lights out stuff and due to HIS durability concerns will probably be a bullpen guy going forward and who could also be a lights out closer. I would probably leave Duran where he is for 2023, but if Lopez returns to form and Alcala impresses the calculation may change on Duran. By 2024 we should have a good idea about Canterino's health and the quality of his stuff. Heck, I'm happy to leave Duran as our closer. But going into 2024 we could be looking at different scenarios depending on which starters were effective in 2023 and determining who is going and who is staying. Duran's role could stay the same, but it could change as well.

I think it should be Buxton but I respect the arguments others have posted for Polanco. In all honesty, the perfect guy is Julien. But he will need a little time at St. Paul to show he's ready so someone other than Julien will have to open the season there. Once Julien is up, he's at the top and Buxton slides to #2. So if it IS Buxton, Rocco and the Twins need to stop treating him like a "very fragile...handle with care" kind of player. Bigger bases. A pitch clock. Limited pickoffs to first base. Just let Buxton play and let him RUN. He should have 40 SB's this year with these new rules. Rocco has to stop waiting for the 3-run HR. It's not 2019 anymore. I want to see more aggressive baserunning and a hit and run from time to time.

I've been wanting this for a LONG time. He's affordable and the stuff is electric. It's worth a gamble to start him in low leverage situations and see how things play out. Who would you rather the Twins spend money on, Pagan or Reyes? To me, it's 100% Reyes.

I'm totally in the Julien camp. If he hits and gets on base in St. Paul at the level he has previously, he will be up whether it's to play 2B or 1B. He would also be a perfect leadoff guy. Would love to see Balazovic at some point. That would indicate that he's made a significant turnaround. But the Twins have a LOT more pitching depth than before and Winder, SWR and Varland would certainly be up before him. And if each of THOSE guys are up we've probably suffered another round of pitching injuries. Brooks Lee is a guy I could certainly see up at some point. The kid can hit and is a switch hitter to boot. Lewis will need about 3-4 weeks in St. Paul once he's cleared to play to knock off the rust, but he's a lock to be called up. Finally, my great white whale of a prospect, Matt Canterino!! If this guy can EVER stay healthy he could become the lock down closer that allows Duran to start. OR, the two of them flat out dominate the 8th and 9th innings and they headline one of baseballs BEST bullpen for several years.

I think the Twins are far from done and the roster, while looking fairly set is not. I don't see any blockbuster moves but I could see a RP being signed, possibly Chafin orFulmer. I still would like a flyer on former Cardinal Alex Reyes. I could see Max traded straight up to the Yankees for Frankie Montas. The Twins, with the addition of Pablo Lopez, would have the depth to wait for Montas to be ready by May 1st. If Montas is healthy, he becomes our #1 with Lopez our #2. The Yankees would be selling low on him but it's clear they have a need for someone like Max and with the short porch in RF and his ability to play CF & RF they could keep Judge in RF full time.

I would want to leave him as a starter. I think last year was a fluke and good health will prove that. I look at Balazovic and Canterino as 2 pitchers that could really help the Twins in the near future but health and durability is key. I see Canterino as a dominant back end BP piece and Balazovic as a SP. As others have said, Balazovic needs at least half of this season at St. Paul to show he's healthy and that he can be an effective starter. This is probably a make or break year for him in the Twins organization. Patience can only be shown for a finite time.

AMEN Alex!!!!!!!! I've been saying this for years and couldn't agree with you more. This feeble attempt to somehow "protect" him is a fools errand. Just. Let. Him. Play. You cannot "guarantee" an injury won't occur by trying to play Buxton in 80 games when the season is 162 plus playoffs. And with the new rules on pickoffs, a pitch clock and larger bases can we finally unleash him and let him steal 40-50 bases??? I firmly believe that the only way the Twins overcome their plague of injuries is to stop walking on egg shells with worry when the next injury will occur and just play the game, all out, with fierce abandon. When I saw your "headline" with Rolls "Royce" in it, I thought it was an article about Royce Lewis. I feel the same way about this talented young kid as I do Buxton. Just play him. SS, LF, 3B, CF, 2B, RF? I don't care. Thinking one position is more risky than another is just adopting a mindset that something "bad" is going to happen. Just. Let. The. Play. And let them play all-out, with no restrictions or caution.

Great article Nick. It certainly does seem this is the strategy. I would expect to see small or large departures depending on the player who is in play. And I don't think the Twins are done making moves just yet. It feels like something else will happen prior to spring training. A Kepler trade? A BP signing? But depending on how some of their prospects develop, there could be the aforementioned trade deadline deal by tony&rodney for someone like Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff depending on how the Brewers season is going.

They finally got an outfield RH bat!! I like the glove and the speed. Gallo can play CF on days Buxton DH's or sits. Taylor the same. This has been the best offseason this F.O. has had. Pray the rosary for good health! :)

I was surprised Lee fell to #8. He was the top college bat in the draft, a switch-hitter and a SS. Even if the Twins have good health this year if Lee, Lewis and Julien are raking and playing well in the field, they will each be up at some point. Starting Lee at AA is a good idea and if he's sizzling there he could very well skip St. Paul or have a quick cup of coffee and be on his way up. I see Lee up in August at the earliest and September more likely. But he WILL be a Twin in 2023.

This was a GREAT trade. Yes, probably no trade will ever compare to AJ for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and don't forget BOOF Bonser. According to Baseball Trade Values which is a decent tool to measure "value" Arraez for Lopez straight up would have greatly favored the Twins as Lopez is valued at 38.8 and Arraez at 26.6. To have gotten Salas (valued at 20.5) is shocking. To have further gotten Chourio (.50) as well is almost overkill. Chourio is only valued at .50 but that has more to do with his youth and uncertain projectability at this point. He's simply a lottery ticket, but as long as you're holding a lottery ticket you have a chance to win. I still do not understand the opinions on TD that Lopez is a mediocre pitcher. He's not Juan Marichal, I'll grant you that, but he was Miami's #2 starter last year. He threw 180 innings and struck out 174. His 3.75 ERA wasn't Verlander-esque but would have been really solid for the Twins. Just having a guy capable of throwing 170-180 innings is a huge benefit to the Twins and every man in the bullpen. Arraez was a fan favorite (and a fav of mine as well). But we sold him at max value and crushed on the return. As soon as I heard the Cardinals were looking to get in on the Lopez sweepstakes I was concerned. That FO doesn't mess around and I think ours knew it. At that point a deal was completed quickly. Maybe we were holding out for Sixto Sanchez to be a throw in, who knows. And we have LOTS of people who can fill the Arraez void. Lewis, Lee, Gordon, Julien, Martin not to mention Polanco who IS our starting 2B-man. Julien, "The God of Walks" can play 2B and 1B and with his on base skills could be up sooner rather than later if he does well at St. Paul. Yes, we all hope Kirilloff will be ready to go and rake right out of spring training, but Miranda at 1B and farmer at 3B to begin with is a decent "Plan B." I hope this trade works out well for BOTH teams, but I REALLY like what the Twins F.O. pulled off here. I wonder if this means we're done or whether Kepler or Larnach is still in play. We made this trade without addressing our logjam of LH hitting outfielders. There could be more at play. For example: A trade of Kepler straight up for Frankie Montas would be quite interesting. Montas will miss the first month of the season but having Lopez allows the Twins time to get Montas ready and for Maeda to open the season in long relief while Ober holds down the #5 spot in the rotation. Having both Lopez and Montas at the top of our rotation while opening playing time for Larnach is a WIN-WIN in my book. You can NEVER have too much pitching. Stockpile those arms and at the trade deadline or the end of 2023 see who you want to retain and who you deal or let walk.

I like this idea Seth. Certainly worth considering. The Twins would be gambling on "potential." But comps like Mack, Hunter and Gomez are reasonable for the "upside" potential of Adell. Not completely, I'll grant you that, but reasonable.

Matt you've hit the nail on the head. It's not that I'm on fire with enthusiasm to trade away Arraez. I love watching him hit. But Rocco refuses to hit him at the top of the order consistently and with all the injuries our young pitching pipeline has endured it's time to add some young pitching talent, especially with the uncertainty of Mahle, Gray and Maeda for 2024. And with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Kirilloff, Gordon, and Julien the Twins could replace Arraez. When teams pitch, they are always in games. When you struggle to pitch you're getting blown out early more often than you'd like and it's a domino effect to the entire pitching staff as you cobble together a way to finish games day after day after day. Again, it's not that I'm desperate to trade Arraez, it's just that he's a piece that could help bring back some good, young, controllable pitching. And I'm always up for that.

This is a great topic and will continue to generate comments well after some kind of trade is made. I will start by saying I'm willing to trade for more pitching and even willing to include Ober in a trade if it brings back a pitcher or two as part of the package. I'm not willing to trade Lewis, Lee, Kirilloff, Rodriquez or Julien. I'm also not willing to include Balazovic because his value is so depressed I've got to give him one more year to show me he's a keeper. So with that said, even though I'm a big fan of Arraez, with Julien waiting in the wings, I'm more than willing to trade Arraez to Miami if it brings back Cabrera and either Luzardo or Max Meyer. Julien's on-base skills project to be on a par with Arraez plus he's got more power. With health always a concern for pitchers and with injuries holding back the pipeline our F.O. was supposed to be building, I stockpile young, controllable arms. I determine who of Gray, Mahle and Maeda (if any) that I want to keep going forward (at least one should remain). But young bats like Lee, Lewis, Rodriguez and Julien are vital to our future lineup. All but Rodriguez are highly likely to be up at some point this season, and Rodriguez is probably knocking on the door for 2024 at some point.

That's a good trade possibility "Moderation." Whether it would be Kepler for Marquez straight up or Kepler for Montas straight up BOTH trades work for the Twins because we subtract one LH hitting OF'er and add a RH pitcher capable of throwing 150-180 innings with a decent amount of effectiveness. We have to come up with at least one and hopefully two pitchers who can hit that kind of innings pitched so we don't over stress the BP. Ryan can do it. Maybe Mahle or Gray. But Marquez or Montas would certainly help.

Sorry about the double posting of my first comments, Not sure how that happened. Maybe the simplest trade to make was proposed by Doc Gast, a frequent poster here, on the Baseball Trade Values site: A one for one swap of Max Kepler 7.6 in value for Frankie Montas 8.1 in value. Montas will miss the first 3-4 weeks of the season due to some lingering shoulder issues, but is expected to be fine going forward. With Kirilloff, Larnach, Gallo and Wallner, Max is probably getting traded. I'd be all in on a deal straight up for Montas. Montas would probably become our #1. He's got great stuff. The Yankees are reported to be willing to deal him and they have interest in Max Kepler. A trade like this leaves Miranda's bat in the middle of the Twins lineup and doesn't move any other assets. It also opens up opportunity for Larnach and Wallner as I commented as TonyO. Montas, once healthy, is a pitcher that can throw 6-7 innings per start and be very effective doing it.

Great ideas Jamie ! The Cortes trade with the Yanks is too low with value for the Yanks. The rule of thumb in acquiring young, controllable pitching is that you must overpay to some degree to win the bid. If you add Festa to the Woodruff trade you would be at 52.5 to Woodruff's value of 51.2. And I would make this trade. Woodruff gives you a horse at the top of your rotation and you pay to keep him around. He's the kind of guy you want to hand the ball for game #1 of a playoff game. It pushes everyone else down a rung as well, deepening the staff. I like Gallon. But I'm just NOT parting with Lee or Lewis. I want to build around them and Correa & Buxton. Tony&Rodney has been pushing for the twins to acquire Edward Cabrera from the Marlins. Even with this Woodruff trade I would still consider engaging with the Marlins for another pitcher. Cabrera's BTV is 14.8 (contrast that with Lopez at 38.7). Lopez is 26 and controllable for 2023 & 2024. Cabrera is 24 years old and controllable thru 2029. I'd gamble on the control and possible upside of Cabrera. I've already parted with Miranda, Ober and Festa. Farmer and a others will cover 3B until lee or Lewis show they're ready. I could trade Larnach 14.6 straight up for Cabrera or throw in someone like Cavaco or Sabato to sweeten the deal. Starting Rotation: Woodruff, Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Cabrera. Maeda starts in long relief and as he builds up has a chance to crack the rotation. Paddock is also out there lurking somewhere. To cap off a tremendously successful off season I sign Andrew Chafin for the BP to deepen it even more. I'm looking for a return to form for Lopez and a contribution from Alcala. Lineup: 1. Arraez DH 2.Kirilloff 1B 3.Buxton CF 4.Polanco 2B 5.Correa SS 6.Gallo LF 7.Vazquez C 8.Kepler RF 9.Farmer/Gordon/Jullien 3B. I don't know what my payroll is, but with the signing of Correa the Twins are in "win now" mode. I Love that rotation. I like that BP. I'd like a little better lineup but Lewis and Lee will probably both be up sometime in 2023.

Great article Adam! And great comments, especially Doc Bauer. I agree, Larnach could easily be added to this list. However, I believe a trade or two is in the offing and some of these players could be included. I don't think any of the 4 Adam listed will be, although I'd be willing to part with jeffers in a package to acquire a better catching prospect. It's interesting so many on TD are "down" on Pablo Lopez when he's the same age as Ryan and has performed in a similar fashion. I'd take another Joe Ryan on our staff in a heartbeat. And if Lopez was acquired and performed well, I would expect the Twins to extend him. They didn't extend Berrios, and it was probably the right move. If Ryan and Lopez are performing I think they would keep them both and someone like Paddock to be the foundation of a starting staff going forward.

I'm looking for Lee to continue to impress as the best college bat when he somehow slipped all the way to 8th for us in last year's draft and we snapped him up. I'm also excited to see both Julien and Martin and see what kind of pressure they put on the Twins brain trust. Not necessarily expecting any of Lee, Julien or Martin to break camp with the Twins, but a good showing and continued success at St. Paul could see one or more of them up with the big club.

Agree this is a shrewd move. Twins F.O. is riding the momentum of the Vazquez and Correa signings and this is a high upside gamble. You can NEVER have too many talented arms and this gives the Twins one more option for three more years. I don't think ALL of Mahle, Gray and Maeda will be gone, but I don't think all three will still be here either. I still expect a trade for a SP pitcher or two is in the works for 2023.

I rec'd Twins GM because I like his thought process even though I'd rather trade Larnach than Jullien & Martin. I don't see us trading a SP unless one of the teams we talk to wants a SP back, and Miami would be focused on bats. However, the Yankees for Montas the Pirates for Endy Rodriguez, Colorado for Marquez are all possibilities. I see not just one, but maybe a couple of trades coming. I'm 100% on board with trading Jeffers, especially if he could be included with something else in a deal with the Pirates for Rodriguez. A tandem of Vazquez the vet and Rodriquez as the catcher of the future would be outstanding. I'd overpay with the Pirates to make that happen. We have nothing for the next 2-3 years for catching coming up in our farm system.

There will be a trade (or trades plural) coming at some point. The Twins roster is jammed with players at certain positions and they need a horse to lead the staff who could give them 170-190 innings. Lopez would be that guy. He's just 26 years old and has 2 years of team control. By that time, the Twins F.O. will have figured out who from Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Varland, Winder, SWR, Balazovic, Canterino, and others (Ryan is a no-brainer) will be staying and going. I still like a play for Lopez AND Sixto Sanchez. I'm not averse to trading Arraez, his value will never be higher. I'm anxious to see Julien, with more power and as "The God of Walks" replace him. To me, one of Arraez or Polanco should be traded. (I'd consider Larnach in the right package as well). I'd still engage with Colorado for a possible Kepler for German Marquez deal. Stockpile some arms and let Lee, Lewis, Julien, Rodriguez among others hit their way onto the Twins and into the everyday lineup.

As the roster is currently constructed there are going to be some trades coming to better align talent on offense and pitching. I like Arraez and Polanco, but with Julien and Gordon I could see one of them dealt. Kepler, Gallo and Larnach are too similar for one of Kepler or Larnach to dealt. Miami is a potential trade partner but so is Colorado with maybe a German Marquez and Connor Joe type of deal. I would certainly look to sign Chafin. And with Theilbar still being effective but 35 years old, signing Chafin would enable the Twins to include Theilbar in a trade if a bigger deal was possible.

Doc Bauer, I couldn't have said it better. I would just add two possible trades to take another big step forward for this year and several years to come. Yes, go get a RH bat. McCutcheon or Mancini would fill the bill at an affordable cost. Here are the trade options: Trade #1 (All values courtesy of Baseball Trade Values). Marlins Get: Arraez 26.6 and Larnach 14.6 for a total of 41.2 Twins Get: Pablo Lopez 38.7 and Sixto Sanchez 1.6 for a total of 40.3. Or, Trade #2" Marlins Get: Polanco 34.8 and Kepler 7.6 for a total value of 42.4. Twins Get: Pablo Lopez 38.7 and Sixto sanchez 1.6 for a total value of 40.3. I'm slightly overpaying in each trade because you HAVE TO if you want to add young, talented, controllable pitching. In each trade the Marlins get bats and we move one LH hitting outfielder. The Twins get Lopez, a 26 year old who is capable of throwing 180 innings to lead the rotation and Sixto Sanchez, who just a couple years ago was MLB's #6 overall prospect. Shoulder issues the last two years have cratered his value but the kid has talent and could be a winning lottery ticket. And Sanchez is just 24 years old. The Twins deal bats from a surplus and stockpile two, young, talented arms to an already promising stable of young arms.