TopGunn#22

Great article arby58! I will stick my neck out and say that despite the two CY Young seasons for Santana (and yes, he should have won in 2005 as well) the greatest pitching season ever for a Twin (and Walter Johnson doesn't count) was Blyleven's 1973. My memory as a 15 year old kid was that the Twins just couldn't score any runs for him. The 1970's were a pitching dominated decade, but as good as Bert's stats were he couldn't beat Jim Palmer out for the CY Young award. On top of that, 1973 was the year Nolan Ryan broke Sandy Koufax's 1965 strikeout record with 383 while winning 21 games and having an ERA under 3. 1973 was a tough year to try to win the CY Young in the A.L. and I'm convinced Palmer won it because the Orioles won the A.L. East. One nit pick: I'm a huge Sandy Koufax fan, so as soon as I read the stats you listed for his 1966 CY young award I knew you were listing his 1965 stats by mistake. In 1966 Koufax won 27 games (losing 9) and had an ERA of 1.73. He struck out 317 that year and threw 5 shutouts. That's from years of reading the backs of baseball cards, what can say. Sadly, that was his last year and in 1972 he became the youngest player ever elected to the Hall of Fame.

I agree "Never Seen" that at one time Ryan's value was as high as $100 on BTV's. But Burnes is only ONE year older and currently is, and probably always would be a superior pitcher. Ryan is an enigma to me. Lights out one time, giving up 4 HR's in 3 innings another. If I could spin him to the Brewers and get Burnes as well as those other two players I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'd consider spending to extend Burnes so that my rotation was fronted by Burnes and Pablo Lopez. Burnes = much better than Joe Ryan until Ryan figures out how to control a breaking pitch.

First, it's only a matter of time before Lee is added to the 40-man roster. That's a lock. Farmer at 33 is expendable with what is coming through the pipeline. With the Balley Sports situation, we're probably looking at a reduction in payroll until something emerges than can replace the $55 million the Twins are losing in revenue. To even maintain our salary level is going to be very difficult. That's why I think you will see guys like Lee and Martin sooner rather than later. Farmer is a decent option for many teams needing a SS but the Dodgers won't be one of them. They let Seager and then Turner walk because Gavin Lux was always their SS of the future. He will be back and healthy in spring training. They may hold on to Rosario as insurance, but unless they plan on continuing to play Mookie Betts at 2B I can see a Lux and Rosario SS/2B combo in L.A. Because of the payroll crunch, I don't see Sonny Gray, Maeda, Solano, Farmer and maybe even Christian Vasquez back. Kepler and Polanco will have their 2024 options picked up, but one or both are probably heading out as part of a trade package. We finally won a playoff game, but there are still a lot of changes to come with the Twins roster.

Great Topic !! Selling High is always a risky proposition but should never be discarded out of hand. Buying Low is also risky but the same applies. I have no problem using BBTV's as a baseline because by and large it's a pretty good site. It has it's flaws but you've got to use SOMETHING as a baseline and I haven't found anything better. While I have to agree that trading Jeffers would be unlikely, the trade proposed by Riverbrian of Jeffers for Jarren Duran is interesting. Duran broke out this year and would solve the Twins CF problem for a LONG time. IF...IF... Buxton was ever able to return to form and play CF like he used to, you could slide Duran to LF and have 2 guys that would cover so much ground you could play a refrigerator in RF. In this trade scenario the Twins keep Vasquez and promote Camargo. Trade #1: The top rated "sell high" guy on the Twins would be Joe Ryan. He tantalizes, but frustrates as well. I sell high and deal him to the Brewers for an outstanding package. Brewers get: Joe Ryan 27 year old SP 44.8 value. Twins get: Corbin Burnes 28 year old former CY Young winner 30.5 Garrett Mitchell OF 7.4 and Peguero 5.8 RP. Total 43.70. Brewers do it for purely payroll reasons. Woodruff is out for 2024. They probably feel they can't afford Burnes. Teams will come knocking for Burnes, the Dodgers, Cardinals, Reds. Twins outbid everyone with Ryan, but they get a far superior pitcher than Ryan will ever be and he's just ONE YEAR OLDER than Ryan. In addition, the Twins add a good bullpen arm and get a really solid OF prospect in Mitchell who got hurt and missed most of 2023. His value is down but to get Ryan, the Brewers have to give him up. This will cost the Twins BIG BUCKS. But as young as the Twins are and with more youth soon to ascend to the major league club they would sign Burnes to a rich extension and build their rotation around Burnes and Pablo Lopez. How would you like to roll into the playoffs with those two at the top. Who needs Sonny Gray with Corbin Burnes in the fold?? The above deal is made with no consideration as to what the payroll will be with the ongoing Balley Sports situation. The next deal is made with the same disdain of what our payroll could or should be. Twins trade Mike Wallner 25 year old OF 22.9 value and Josh Winder 26 year old SP 6.0 value to Padres (28.90 total value). Twins get: Juan Soto 24 year old OF 22.9 value. If the payroll wasn't already over budget, this deal puts the Twins well over the threshold but it's worth it to add a bat the caliber of Soto to hit #3 or #4. And he's one year YOUNGER than Wallner!! I hate giving up Wallner but getting Soto instead is a no-brainer. All it costs you is money Pohlad family!! The Reds need a catcher but the departure of Joey Votto leaves them with no negative value contracts to move. I'd sell Vasquez to them for a bag of baseballs and promote Camargo. Or, I offer him to Miami and I pick up a chunk of his salary for Sixto Sanchez (the Marlins version of Matt Canterino). Sanchez is 26 years old and because he can't stay healthy has a net zero value. He's a gamble with a high ceiling but like Canterino can't stay healthy. I'd take the risk to shed the payroll. Imagine if Canterino and Sanchez were healthy for 2024?? I've got to think a little about what kind of deal I could make for Larnach 7.8 and Miranda 5.4 (total 13.2).

Good points Woof! It will certainly be another interesting off season for the Twins. Kepler and Polanco have earned their extensions, but once they are picked up, a trade is still possible. I could see keeping Kepler, but it would depend on what they could get for Polanco. Same with Farmer. He was a solid bench guy but is good enough to start someplace else. With Correa, Lewis, Julien, and Brooks Lee along with Castro and Gordon, it's possible the Twins make deals that could include Polanco AND Farmer. I would love to see the Twins trade Vasquez for whatever they can get, promote Camargo and use the money saved on Vasquez for a free agent SP. If you took the money it would take to bring Sonny Gray back (who I believe will regress next year) and what you saved by dealing Vasquez, you could make a bid for Blake Snell, who is 4 years younger than Gray and the likely National League CY Young winner. If you're out-bid for Snell (I see the Dodgers going hard for him) make a play for Eduardo Rodriguez. He will cost much less than Snell but would still be effective. The Twins NEED a LH starter. When you have to face teams like the Astros (Alvarez & Tucker) you need a lefty. Signing Ed. Rod would leave you enough money to add ONE solid bullpen piece. I think some combination of Castro, Austin Martin and Nick Gordon could cover CF next year. Anything from Buxton is a bonus. The injury to Kirilloff is a real bummer and complicates what we do at 1B rather than just saying Kirilloff is there. I don't think there's much of a future for Miranda with the Twins so I'm all in favor of packaging him in a trade for a SP if we sit on our hands at the outset of free agency and all the decent SP options get signed before Falvey and Levine have had their morning coffee. Maybe make a play for a Joey Meneses type of guy who could form a solid platoon with Kirilloff and play a bigger role if Kirilloff is slow to come back or suffers additional injuries during the regular season. I'd move on from Solano. He will surely regress and at 37 going on 38 should not be part of future Twins rosters. Yes, it's going to be a VERY INTERSETING off season for the Twins.

Heading out to babysit grandkids for the weekend. I'll probably add something on Monday to this. I would look to add Nelson Cruz as the Twins hitting coach. Cruz hit with power, and he did strike out, but he also put the ball in play a lot, especially when the situation warranted it. There should be very few "untouchable" players when the Twins approach their off season plan. On the surface, the "why would you even consider trading Joe Ryan" argument doesn't stand up. I'm not advocating we unload him, but earlier this year, when Ryan's "value" on Baseball Trade Values was 100 I listed several trades that would have brought back a MASSIVE return, because the Twins were selling high on him. Well, Joe's value has slipped to a still very impressive 44.8. He's 27 years old and controllable. But check out this possible trade with the Brewers" Brewers get Joe Ryan 44.8 value. Twins get: Former CY Young winner Corbin Burnes 30.5 value. Garrett Mitchell, a 24 year old LH hitting OF (7.4) and Peguero a 26 year old RH bullpen arm (5.8). Burnes is only ONE year older than Ryan at 28 years old. Yes, he's expensive. The Twins would have to pay him. But Milwaukee probably does this deal because they are hitting a tough spot where they can't pay everyone (Woodruff, Peralta, Adames) and they may want to set up extensions for some of there young talent. Would the Twins have pulled Corbin Burnes after two innings of a playoff elimination game?? No Way. THIS is why you don't simply rule out a player (other than Lewis) in a trade scenario.

Neither Paddock nor Varland will "replace" what Sonny Gray gave the Twins this season. Don't misunderstand what I'm saying here. Both Paddock and Varland could and will probably be pretty good next season...but not Sonny Gray level good. The Twins should be able to expect some level of improvement from Ryan and Ober but they can't count on it. Lopez will be our #1 and he'll be fine. Nicksaviking is right. The best thing our FO did this last off season was establishing tremendous depth in the rotation. And we needed it. Ryan, Ober, Maeda all spent time on the I.L. Paddock looks very good but he's several years away from a full season of starting. I would like to see them make a deal for a SP. It just depends on who and what the cost would be. Prediction: I think Sonny Gray struggles to come close to replicating his 2023 with the Twins. I like the idea of looking into Eduardo Rodriguez as a LH in the rotation, but he turned down the deadline deal to the Dodgers and with the Tigers improving I can't see them trading him to us. Blake Snell would be fantastic. But he will be coming off a CY Young season and as you saw the Dodgers post season starting staff in tatters and the Cardinals prowling for pitching this off season I just can't see the Twins winning a free agent bidding war for Snell. So while we certainly could benefit from a LH starter, I just can't see either Snell or Ed Rod. ending up with the Twins. So who else is there? Brandon Woodruff could be available from the Brewers but he'd be expensive. Still, he's been a horse his entire career except this season, and when he was able to pitch he was every bit the Stud he's been and he would probably be an improvement on Sonny Gray. But he wouldn't come cheap. If Frankie Montas is healthy maybe the Yankees would foolishly give up on him for a young LH slugger like Wallner or Larnach? There is always the possibility they sign Mahle to a cheap-team friendly 2 year contract and he's ready to go sometime in May-early June. If Mahle is healthy he's a solid #3 type SP. As was discussed in another thread, the Twins are in a really solid position with young prospects already contributing like Lewis, Julien, Kiriloff, Wallner, and guys like Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins knocking on the door. They could win the A.L. Central Division for the next 5-6 seasons. But each off season it will be crucial the FO makes the right decisions on how to construct the roster and bring along prospects. They failed miserably by signing Gallo with a plethora of LH hitting corner OF and 1B already on the roster. Signing one solid bullpen arm going into the 2023 season would have helped a LOT in the regular season. They struck gold with signings like Taylor, Castro and Farmer and the trade for Lopez. They whiffed on the Vasquez signing. It's a mixed bag and no FO ever hits on every move. They need someone they count count on to play CF and that should be a top priority going into the off season so acquiring another SP may need to wait until that gaping hole is filled. Maybe Buxton will be "relatively" healthy next year, but they can't count on him. I expect Correa to bounce back and have a much better year at the plate. The future looks promising and nothing makes a promising future more likely in baseball than a deep and talented starting pitching staff. The Twins should look at any and all possibilities to add to and deepen their already promising starting rotation.

Brock is right pointing out the lack of pitching the Orioles have. The Dodgers have the same problem. I thought the Dodgers would get knocked out by the Brewers because of the Brewers superior pitching. Then Corbin Burnes laid a game #1 egg and Brandon Woodruff couldn't pitch. Texas sweeping Baltimore really isn't that big of a surprise and neither is the D-Backs rubbing the Dodgers nose in the dirt. The D-Backs simply have better starting pitching than the Dodgers do at this point. Also consider how close Philly was to putting their boot on the Braves neck before Austin Riley stepped up and quashed that dream. Philly still has the hammer in their hand with Aaron Nola on the mound facing an "undecided" Braves starter so that also shows the precarious position the Braves post season is in already. Remember, they had a first round bye. They should have known who their game #3 starter would be all along. For Pete's Sake, just put Charlie Morton out there, he's the best they have left. The Twins really squandered an opportunity yesterday with Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray simply didn't rise to the occasion but he would have had to win 1-0. Despite being gifted with 7 walks the generous Twins hitters responded with 13 strikeouts. I can almost accept the struggles of Wallner but for the life of me I can't figure out what's wrong with Kirilloff. He's just too good a young hitter to look SO lost at the plate. The Astros are sending the eminently hittable Jose Urquidy to the mound tonight. He's a RH pitcher, so you'd expect to see Kirilloff and Wallner back in there. But one has to wonder...

Very interesting take Hans. Your larger point is well taken: The Braves are REALLY good right now and will still be for at least a couple more years. The Twins won a weak division this year and even though Cleveland and probably the Tigers will improve next year, the Twins have a solid foundation to move forward with. Lewis has the look of a future All Star and Franchise Player. Julien and Jeffers look like they will be solid for years to come. Correa should bounce back to a much more "Correa like" season next year. The pitching staff has a solid core to build around. The opportunity to put themselves in a position to win multiple division titles in a row exists. But each and every off season going forward will have it's challenges. Who will replace Gray and Maeda in the rotation next year? Who will be our CF for 150 games? (it sure as heck won't be Buxton). What one arm could we add to our bullpen to handle the 8th inning and close when Duran is not available? The Twins have LOTS of bullpen options which should provide for a deeper and better BP next year, but they still need that ONE arm at the end of a game in addition to Duran. Could that arm be Matt Canterino? Possibly. But he's kind of like Buxton at this point, you just can't count on him. Each off season will have it's challenges. How does our FO meet those challenges? The Braves lost Freddie Freeman arguably the heart and soul of their team. They went out and got Matt Olson. But you are spot-on in pointing out the solid foundation the FO has built for the Twins. They should be a playoff team for years to come.

It's a rather uninteresting mix of players. Cossetti I've heard of. Sabato as well. The others, with the possible exception of Jordan Carr (who I THINK I've heard of) I don't recall reading much about them and I pretty much read the minor league report every week. The only reason I can see Sabato is there is to showcase him for a possible off season trade. At 1 for 17 with 32 K's (sarcasm) I don't think anyone will be interested. I'd rather hear about what's going on with Walker Jenkins and some of the pitchers we drafted along with him.

Ryan for Cruz was great. A young SP with talent for an aging DH. Pressley was tough in hindsight just because we've gotten very little from either prospect. Alcala may still turn out but probably not Celestino. Gray for Petty indeed took chutzpah! And I'd do it 100 out of 100 times. It will be even better if we can secure Gray for a few more years but still a win. Also, in hindsight, Paddock and Pagan for Taylor Rogers has worked out pretty nicely. I was a little surprised the price was so high for Mahle. BOTH Steer and CES in addition to a young pitching prospect was a LOT. Especially with all the injuries Mahle dealt with and his lack of positive impact. But Mahle was a solid #3 SP and at the time I was on board with it. If the Twins bring Mahle back on a very team friendly deal and Mahle, as a result of that deal is able to give the Twins a couple of 12-13 win seasons it would be a completely different outcome. But that ship has probably sailed so I'd consider that deal, with the projected future contributions of Steer and CES for the Reds a bad trade.

We are in pretty good shape coming home with Sonny Gray set to start. At least "on paper." For all those who hated and maybe still hate the Arraez trade, this is why the Twins had to do it. Lopez has been OUTSTANDING in the playoffs. The Twins had Polanco, Julien, Lewis and fast rising Brooks Lee. (you could even add Nick Gordon to that list based on his 2022 season). With Gray almost sure to leave (I'd love to see the Twins come up with a way to keep him) they are going to need to make a similar trade this off season. In addition to Gray, Maeda is probably moving on. Varland and Paddock will be counted on to step up, but you need more than 5 starters. Nobody makes it through an entire season without at least one stint on the I.L. Reviews of ball and strike calls in the Twins two game sweep of the Blue Jays showed the Twins were on the short end of calls that cost them over 2 and a half runs. The Twins are currently on the short end by almost 3 runs in the Astro series after 2 games (the corners of the plate for Verlander and Valdez have been HUGE, not so much for Twins hitters). This data is from reviewing the consistency (or lack thereof) of ball and strike calls in relation to the "pitch box." In other words, the Twins are getting hosed. This is why, despite the fact that I'm a baseball traditionalist, I'm looking forward to the eventual phasing out of home plate umps calling balls and strikes. The called 3rd strike on Castro on an inside pitch by Verlander in game #1 was terrible. Polanco should have hit a grand slam. Lewis should have followed up with a game tying HR. That one call changed the trajectory of that game. I'm looking forward to Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts or whoever, not "getting" the borderline call.

I think they are monitoring Buxton daily and we haven't seen the last of post-season roster tinkering if they are able to advance. As you've all been discussing though, just what do you get with this version of Buxton? Nothing he's done this year indicates anything positive. Despite a horrible batting average, low OB% and too many strikeouts, Taylor at least hit 20 HR's, stole over 20 bases (something Buxton has done once? twice?) and Taylor has played GREAT defense. (something Buxton has always done). I'm just not sure how beneficial having Byron would be. That said, no matter how this season turns out, I don't think Taylor ever comes close to what he did this year and Buxton cannot be counted on for anything in the future. This front office must come up with a long-term plan for CF for 2024 and beyond.

I agree DC, there were some VERY questionable called 3rd strikes on Twins hitters. Especially on Castro which would have loaded the bases prior to Polanco's HR. I can't wait for fully "robot" strike zones.

As soon as he did it, I was wondering if hitting 2 HR's in his first two post season AB's was a record. I had forgotten that Gaetti had done it in 1987! (WHAT KIND OF TWINS FAN AM I)???? And that Evan Longoria had also done it. Ironic that the club is exclusively 3B so far. Not sure what primary position Lewis will play in 2024 but he's certainly a 3B for 2023.

I really think Ober has earned the right to start game #1. Ryan has been far too shaky, that's obvious, but Ober has flat out earned it. Lopez and Gray in games #2 & #3 and then a Ryan/Maeda game #4. Ryan starts and maybe only goes 3 innings, possibly 4. Maeda gives you 2 or 3 innings. Finally, Lopez for game #5 if necessary. They have to keep Funderburk. When you have KH hitters like Tucker & Alvarez you need a LH to face them. You just can't go into a series with Houston with only ONE LH pitcher on your entire staff (much less the BP). In this scenario, I'm dropping Stevenson. We will also have to deal with the Buxton speculation for this next round. Did the last 3 days help him get any healthier? I doubt it, but I'm sure the speculation will bubble up. The starting pitching and bullpen has been outstanding so far but Houston, with hitters like Altuve, Bergman, Tucker, and Alvarez will be a challenge. And McCormick and Diaz have been solid for them (and Brantley is back). The Astro starting pitching hasn't been as dominant as in years past so hopefully our lineup hits better than the Toronto series. Nice to have put them away in 2 games so the staff is as fresh as could be expected. Nice to see that Rocco is using Stewart and Varland ahead of some of the shakier options he's had in the pen too.

Good to know the injuries to Correa and Duran are not serious. I would start Ober in Game one on his standard 5-days rest. I think Ryan's last 3 starts were unimpressive enough that Ober has EARNED the ball to start the game. I still think Ryan could be effective in an inning or two of relief, but at this point, based on who is throwing well and who isn't, our 3 SP should be Lopez, gray and OBER.

Varland came in and threw 2 pitches and the inning ended and then Theilbar came out to start the next inning. I will never quite understand the strategy of warming a pitcher up (and a VALUED pitcher you're going to rely on in the playoffs) having him throw 2 pitches, end the inning, and then remove him from the game even if a LH hitter was leading the next inning off. I'm just too old school to believe that a good pitcher can get a good hitter out regardless of the splits. THIS is why teams carry so many pitchers in the playoffs, even in a 3 game series.

They stayed away from his split finger fastball which just dives and normally induces a LOT of swings and misses. Gausman was pitching from behind in the count, running uphill from the first at bat with Julien. Twins hitters had a good scouting report/game plan and it worked. I've been saying in conversations about what our post season roster would/should look like that Royce Lewis is the "X" factor. The kid just has a knack, kind of like Kirby Puckett did. Hopefully Royce's hammy can hold up through the post season. I sure hop they win today because I'm not sure I trust Ryan to win a game #3 if needed.

I hope Rocco doesn't fall for the LH relief pitcher coming in early and PH for Julien and/or Kirilloff early. Leave them in. The "leverage situation" bullpen arms for the Blue Jays are all RH. I like how we've stacked our bullpen. Would LOVE to win in 2 because I don't trust Ryan at this point either. Ober should have beaten him out for SP #3.

I agree, Lewis is our "X" factor. Of all the players we are wondering about as the post season begins, he is the most vital. I don't know what to think of Buxton. The fact that there is considerable and legitimate debate over whether he should even be on the roster is telling. If this FO doesn't have a plan for CF next season that doesn't include Buxton they should be held criminally liable. He just cannot be counted on. I also agree that Joe Ryan pitched himself OUT of the rotation and into the bullpen and that Ober pitched himself INTO the rotation as a game #1 starter in the next round. We better win this series in 2 games. Lastly, I'm happy for Larnach but HE's the guy getting traded this off season, not Kepler or Wallner. Kepler has earned his option being picked up. They can let him play out next season and then determine if it's better to go with a younger guy or offer an extension. Track the development of Rodriguez and Jenkins. Wallner isn't going anywhere. With Larnach's pull heavy power swing, I'd monitor how Frankie Montas looks and put together a trade package that included Larnach to the Yankees. Larnach as a corner OF could hit 25 HR's for the Yankees. If Montas gets healthy, he could be the rotation replacement for Sonny Gray or Maeda. It could be a trade that benefits both teams.

When will the Twins announce their post season roster? Will Funderburk AND Paddock both be in the bullpen? Can we win in 2 games so we can skip Ryan and start Ober in game #1 of the next round? Will Buxton make the roster over Luplow? (what a statement that is for Buxton). Correa will be fine, but the "X" factor for the Twins is Royce Lewis. To make any noise they need him in the lineup.

If you're a cord cutter where do you find the game? Does KSTP-TV have the option to buy the game and air it?

I thought Paddock looked great, but I still think they need Funderburk to at least have another lefty in the pen, and at this moment Funderburk looks better than Theilbar. They should have both Paddock and Funderburk on the post season roster. I think Ryan is looking shaky as the #3 SP. His last 3 starts were not impressive. I would like to see Maeda in the pen, so I'm a little surprised Ober is starting today because if he looks good, HE should be our #3 SP. Maybe he only goes 2 or 3 innings with several bullpen guys able to step in and throw an inning or two. Heck, if we had to play a game 3 the Twins could go with a combination of Ober, Ryan, Maeda and Paddock (depending on how Lopez and Gray do). Larnach is looking better. Maybe he can rebuild some of his trade value for an off season deal. At this point, he's not overtaking Kepler or Wallner and Brooks Lee is pushing for a roster spot next year.

After what I saw of Joe Ryan last night I'm of a mind to hand the ball to Baily Ober for game #3 (if needed). Ryan looked good his first two starts once he was back, not so good in his next two. Last night was, for me, his chance to show he deserves the #3 SP spot. He failed. I know it's Coors Field but 3 HR's and 6 runs in 5 innings does not inspire confidence. Give Ryan the role of 1-2 innings out of the pen and give the ball to Ober if there is a pivotal game #3 or start Ober in game #1 for the next series. I like seeing Varland and Stewart in late game roles. Stewart gave up 3 hits and had to have Theilbar bail him out, but none of the contact was hard. He still looked good.