TopGunn#22

Great Post Zach. I have liked Montas and would put him in the tier of Giolito and Bauer that I think would slot as our #2 behind Lopez. I also like the idea of getting TWO SP's to allow the move of Varland to the bullpen for 2024. This by no means would be a permanent move for Varland. In fact, if Matt Canterino can finally stay healthy and he's called up by June, I could see Varland being gradually lengthened out to return to a SP role in 2025. Another idea I just posted in a different thread was a one-for deal of Polanco for Shane Bieber. It grades as an over-pay for the Twins but it could help both teams, even if it's the dreaded intra-division trade. Cleveland needs offense, and Gimenez has moved from 2B to SS. Polanco is a good fit. Bieber started 21 games last year, battled reduced velocity and other injuries and went 6-6 with a 3.80 ERA. His WHIP was an unimpressive 1.23. But he knows how to pitch. He's just 29 years old and will be an unrestricted FA after the 2024 season. It's a risk for the Twins. They would be hoping they get the 2019-2022 version of Bieber. In 2022 he started 31 games, was 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA. THAT'S your #2 SP behind Lopez (he might be your #1). If Bieber is working out, you can try to work out a deal before he hits FA. If not, you haven't given up a young asset to rent him for one season. A trade for Bieber and signing of Montas/Bauer/Giolito would really strengthen and lengthen the Twins rotation and bullpen. Either way, Julien and Brooks Lee will have 2B covered in 2024 for the Twins. Bieber $12 million salary for 2024 isn't much different than Polanco's $10 million. And in 2025 you're one year closer to Varland and David Festa competing for the #5 slot in the rotation. I like Adell as a cheap trade option. I also like Adam Duval as a FA signing if the cost is not prohibitive. And I wonder what the move of Camargo to the 40 man means for Vasquez AND Jeffers. One one hand, you could trade Jeffers to the Marlins in a package for a big time SP. On the other, Vasquez is over-paid yet is great at handling pitchers and framing strikes. It's no coincidence our SP's did better last year with a vet like Vasquez behind the plate. I think they keep them both and Camargo is called up if one of them gets hurt. I also agree with Fatbat that it would be great to see the Twins dive in and get something done rather than "waiting for the market to define itself." But the players and their agents often choose to sit still until somebody signs for more money than we could have imagined. Ohtani is the easy example, but I would use the Maeda signing instead. The Tigers are going to regret that signing. They over paid when they could have gone for a better option like Giolito/Montas/Bauer. Each is younger than Maeda and would have been a better investment.

I don't think tendering Farmer was a mistake. He's still a decent SS and hits lefties pretty well. His versatility around the IF gives him value. There are still teams looking for a SS so a trade is very likely to me. The fact the Twins haven't made a move of any kind yet is very consistent with the Twins M.O. I don't think anything happens until there are a few more big moves that sharpen the market parameters (Yamamoto and Snell signing, Bellinger signing) and the Twins don't sit down at the table until early 2024. I agree with the sentiment that our #1 priority is a frontline SP. Getting that guy who could be our #2 could be accomplished either by trade or FA. But the kind of guy we can get varies depending on which route you take. A veteran FA like Giolito or Bauer is the type of pitcher you could slot at #2. But they're not jumping at a Twins offer of $15 million per year until some big pitching dominos fall. A trade is more likely to involve a Miller/Woo from Seattle or a Trevor Rogers from Miami level pitcher than a Corbin Burnes, Jesus Luzardo, or Logan Gilbert level trade. Miller, Woo or Rogers while talented, haven't done enough to be considered better than Joe Ryan to this point, so any deals involving them would slot them BEHIND Ryan in the rotation. Last season improved Kepler's value and lessened Polanco's somewhat. I think we're all correct in assuming that we're not getting Jesus Luzardo for Kepler and Polanco. Maybe Trevor Rogers, but then you're banking on the 2021 version of Rogers, not the 2022-2023 version. That's the tough position the Twins find themselves in. If they wait too long in FA they won't get a pitcher who will come close to what they need. They would then be squeezed into a position of having to give up more than they would like via trade to get the right pitcher. The veteran SP brings a track record. The trade SP brings potential. At this point, I would expect teams are low-balling the Twins for Kepler and Polanco. I'm willing to trade Polanco for prospects or Garrett Mitchell from the Brewers. To me, Julien is playing 2B and hitting at the top of the order every day. And Brooks Lee either breaks camp with the Twins or joins shortly thereafter possibly moving Julien to 1B. Kepler on the other hand, I'm not selling low on. I have no problem having him on the Twins for all of 2024. If last year wasn't a mirage he will be a valuable player for the Twins to have in 2024 and we're one year closer to Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. It's too bad the Guardians are a division rival. They need offense, which we could deal them, and they have SP, which we need. Here's a list of Cleveland's SP and their BBTV: Logan Allen 28.4 25 yo. Shane Bieber 5.6 29 yo. Tristen McKenzie 45.3 27 yo. Gavin Williams 46.1 24 yo. Tanner Bibee 42.6 24 yo. Daniel Espino 16.2 22 yo. The obvious target for me is Logan Allen. He's the most affordable and he's 25 years old. The Guardians are probably going to trade Bieber. I think I'd be willing to trade Polanco for Bieber even up. We'd be overpaying slightly, but Cleveland would slide Gimenez to SS (they did last year after trading Rosario) and Polanco becomes they're everyday 2B. The Twins would slot the 29 yo Bieber in at #2 behind Lopez and leave Ryan and Ober at #3 & #4. The Twins could decide mid-season if they would like to offer an extension to Bieber if things are working out. He's only 29. He's the veteran SP that compares to Giolito/Bauer without the immediate outlay of money.

This is good, but you can't project a big trade that moves pieces for something you need. For example, the Twins could trade for a pitcher for this season and sign a FA as well. A couple years go by, Varland, Festa, Raya, one or all three turn out to be pretty good. meanwhile, Ryan and Ober are also doing well. Maybe one of them is traded from an area of depth and strength to get a position player. You just never know...

The Twins trade Jeffers and Julien for a value of 63.0. Luzardo is valued at 63.3 so the trade is essentially even. I think that's too steep, even if it means adding a talented young LH starting pitcher to our rotation. Braxton Garrett is a little less expensive, mid 50's for a value. JD Twins, the Marlins don't need a CF because they moved Jazz Chisholm there last season when they acquired Arraez. Then they discovered that Arraez wasn't a very good 2B so they moved him to 1B and left Jazz in CF. That's why they've been interested in Polanco. They would probably still be interested in Emm-Rod though as a possible corner OF. I think the Twins need 2 SP's for their rotation. Paddack will be limited and while I'm hoping for continued improvement from Ryan, Ober and Varland I would want the depth available to adjust. One pitcher can come via a trade. The other needs to come from FA. The free agent gives the Twins a veteran with a track record who could #2 or #3. The trade should fill the rotation out with someone who could #3-#5. Here's a trade I posted to BBTV that nets the Twins Trevor Rogers: Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Trevor Rogers 26 Majors SP Low 3 32.7 7.5 25.2 20.2 25.2 30.3 Total Value: 25.2 Marlins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Griffin Jax 29 Majors RP Medium 4 32.1 17.8 14.4 11.5 14.4 17.2 Jorge Polanco 30 Majors 2B Low 2 31.9 22.5 9.4 7.6 9.4 11.3 Christian Vazquez 33 Majors C Low 2 8.9 20 -11.1 -13.3 -11.1 -8.8 Cash 10 Total Value: 22.70 We give the Marlins pieces they need: A catcher, a 2B and a solid bullpen piece plus cash to offset the contracts of Vasquez and Polanco. We add a 26 year old pitcher who was very promising a couple of years ago but has been dogged by injuries the last two seasons. He's our #3 or #4. We also shed $20 million in payroll. That opens up the possibility of adding a FA SP who would be our #2. Our rotation is: Lopez/FA/Ryan/Rogers/Ober/Paddack (6 guys). Varland moves to the pen for 2024 replacing Jax. Camargo is elevated to #2 catcher. It's a risk if Rogers was just a flash in the pan. It's a HR if Rogers regains his 2021 form. He's a LH starting pitcher who would be our #2 if he's 2021 vintage. Lopez/Rogers/FA/Ryan/Ober/Paddack. Varland locking down games with Duran, Funderburk, Stewart and maybe even Canterino. Young lineup intact. Assuming the FA pitcher we sign is for 3-5 years and you have your rotation set for quite awhile. Varland could always move back into the rotation in 2025 depending on how things play out. Festa or Raya could move up, allowing us to trade from a position of strength in our rotation. That kind of value could bring back something GOOD.

The stat that jumps out to me and solidifies the superiority of Julien over Miranda is "CHASE RATE." Julien has much better strike zone discipline than Miranda leading to more walks (a LOT more walks) and a consistently better OBP. Julien has equal power to Miranda and is much more athletic as evidenced by the fielding range, arm strength and running metrics. I agree with you. I would NOT be looking to trade Julien either, BUT...There is Brooks Lee waiting in the wings for SS, 2B, 3B. Lewis could also play any of those and we have a Gold Glove SS (Schobel) in our system as well. We really need to to come up with a solid, long term solution for our #2 SP spot. Polanco isn't going to get us that, he'll at best bring in a #4 #5 type. Someone like Julien or Lee is going to be needed to bring in a big time, young , controllable SP like a Gilbert from Seattle, or a Luzardo or Braxton from Miami. The Twins FO and talent evaluators will need to come to a definitive determination WHO the Twins 2B of the future is. Julien? Or Brooks Lee? Because to get that long term #2 SP means some combination of Julien/Lee and probably Emmanuel Rodriguez/Matt Wallner is what it's going to take to get it done. Having Julien at the top of the Twins lineup for many years to come is something I look forward to. But PITCHING is what builds a winner in baseball. It's why the Twins were division champs and finally won a playoff game last season. To be good to great going forward they need talented pitchers and they need more depth in their farm system. It's why I always respect Cleveland going into a new season.

I wish I could get the time back that it took to read this.

They've only won one World Series in that period because Dave Roberts has the honor of being the manager that is consistently able to get the LEAST out of being provided with the MOST. I could see them signing Yamamoto. Certainly Snell as a fallback failing to sign Yamamoto. And I can't see Kershaw going anywhere but back to the Dodgers. That 1/3 of an inning and 6 runs allowed post season start is just NOT the way he wants to end his Dodgers career. Coming back to the Dodgers in July or so may just be the perfect way for him to be fresh down the stretch for them. Yes, the SP dominos are starting to fall and I could see the Twins remaining very cautious as the market plays out and options disappear from their board. It's always frustrating as Twins fans but it's just "the Twins way."

Grisham is a dumpster fire and the Padres got the Yankees to take him because they knew how desperate the Yanks were to get Soto. I'm not giving up potentially decent players like Mercedes and SWR to take on the dead weight somebody else agreed to just to acquire a top-5 hitter.

Interesting to see a column more suited more to The Huffington Post than Twins Daily. To me if the people that work and live there have this to say about San Francisco who am I to question? I have been there and went to a Cardinals vs Giants game. Beautiful Ballpark. Iconic setting. But you didn't have to wander far from the ballpark to see the filth, poop, needles and homeless. It's there, and the scope of it is humbling.. And that was about 5 years ago. It's undoubtedly worse since then. To try to tell me I didn't really witness it, or if I DID it was only through a political and racist viewpoint from growing up in a little town like Rochester well, I'll just shrug and say "whatever." You can't deny the very REAL rise in crime in many metropolitan areas. You can't avoid the carnage that still remains in downtown Minneapolis after the George Floyd riots. And you can't deny the effect the "defund the police" movement has had on many inner cities. Minneapolis used to have on average about 926 police officers. Today they have less than 500. Fewer police is an open invitation to more crime. And much of that increased crime isn't even being reported or investigated. I don't have statistics to back this up, but I'll bet there are fewer cops on the street in San Francisco than there were 5 years ago. This is reality. So on a slow day for Twins baseball with nothing much happening on the trade or free agent front, I'll close by hoping something happens soon so we can all get the taste of this out of our mouths.

I wouldn't have given Lugo that contract, and though I liked Lee as a future CF and top of the order bat, I wouldn't have given him his contract either. I still think (probably wrongly) that Bauer or Giolito could be signed for the same as Lugo, and I'd rather have either of them in our rotation. I agree with Cory, it certainly LOOKS like they are trying to add someone who could be a #2 or at worst a #3. I think they need two SP for additional depth and I'm not sure if that #2 guy will come via a trade or FA. But I would consider Bauer & Giolito, based on what they have accomplished in their careers to be ahead of Joe Ryan and Baily Ober in our rotation. If we trade Polanco for Edward Cabrera, I see Cabrera as our #5. Even if we expanded the package with Miami to get Max Meyer I would see him as our #5. And, even if we put a package together with Seattle for Miller or Woo, as young and as talented as they are, they would still be our #5 because they haven't accomplished as much as Ryan or Ober. We're not getting Logan Gilbert unless we trade the following: Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Logan Gilbert 27 Majors SP Low 4 108.1 42.1 65.9 52.7 65.9 79.1 Total Value: 65.9 Mariners 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Griffin Jax 29 Majors RP Medium 4 32.1 17.8 14.4 11.5 14.4 17.2 Emmanuel Rodriguez 20 Minors OF 0 0 0 17.1 13.7 17.1 21.5 Edouard Julien 24 Majors OF 6 70.4 35.9 34.5 27.6 34.5 41.4 Total Value: 66 I posted this trade on BBTV just moments ago. I'm betting I get about 10 "Thumbs Down" from Twins fans and probably just about as many from Mariner fans even though a solid bullpen arm, a bat like Julien at 2B and a young corner OF prospect with a good eye and BIG power sure seems like a haul. If I wanted George Kirby instead of Gilbert, just throw in Walker Jenkins and you've got a deal. Gilbert or Kirby would step right in as our #2. But that prospect haul is NOT GOOD for the Twins long term. Better to spend $15-$17 million per year on a Bauer or Giolito type. The other option is to lower our sights via trade for a Woo, Miller, Cabrera, Max Meyer type of young pitcher, but that guy will at least begin the season as our #4 with Paddack #5.

This is an accurate recap of what we have at this point of the off season having made zero moves of note. What we're all waiting to find out is what will the roster look like when we open spring training and what it could look like once we break camp. I'm looking for a trade that will bring back a #2 type SP to the Twins rotation. It is the biggest hole in our roster and the most urgent need to fill. Anything else, like acquiring a CF as Buxton insurance, a bullpen piece and another SP really can't be considered until the Twins acquire that #2 guy for the rotation. It's like the entire FA market holding their collective breath until Ohtani signed. Yes, the Yankees traded for Soto (and Verdugo) but those were moves that showed the Yankees were definitely not in play for Ohtani. I'm not really making a bold prediction that the Twins FO will sit out the top tier and even most or all of the 2nd tier of FA starting pitching. This will frustrate all of us here on TD as we see SP after SP sign with everyone from the Royals and Tigers to the Cardinals, Dodgers and whoever else. We can only HOPE that there is someone decent enough to be our #2 SP. The money has always been on a trade to fill that hole but if we go FA I'd like to see us take a flyer on Trevor Bauer. He's 32 years old, and with his baggage could probably be had for below market rate. There is not much to choose from in position player FA, but I think an affordable gamble would be OF Adam Duval. He's capable of playing all 3 OF positions, and could give the Twins a RH power bat that could fill LF or CF against LH pitching. The question remains "who will the Twins eventually trade, who do they get, and how much money will they effectively shave from the current payroll allowing them to afford the pitcher that comes back?

Both 1967 and 1963 should have probably made it into the top 10. Good hitting. POWER. And good pitching. 1969 was probably Boswell's best season as a Twin but 1967 sure was for Merritt as well as Dean Chance. I wonder how much the Twins could have benefitted by having Tony Oliva up in 1962 but certainly 1963. The Yankees were still the class of the A.L. in 1960-1964 but Oliva would have hit no matter what year the Twins called him up. Add his 1964 season to the 1963 lineup and WOW ! He might have still been a little rough in RF, but Tony-O would have HIT. Allison, Hall and Killebrew formed the OF. Vic Power and Rollins held down 1B & 3B. (Rollins hit .307) (Power hit .270 with Gold Glove defense). More than anything, the Twins could have used a DH back in those 60's years. The Yanks won by 13 games and the White Sox had tremendous pitching, but add Oliva to that lineup and I wonder...

It will be interesting to see how the Twins FO approaches the teams needs this off season because there isn't just a one-solution, straight forward approach. I think Varland would be ELECTRIC in the pen and become the 8th inning guy/occasional closer and push Jax back to a 7th inning role with Funderburk and Stewart. That said, Varland's ceiling is a solid #3 SP. Devin Williams is possibly the top closer in baseball. While he would be a great addition, with 2 years of control, he's redundant when you already have Duran. Julien straight up would get him, but I just don't see that happening. So if the Twins don't go for a Williams type trade to solidify the back end of the pen, thus pushing everyone down a peg and strengthening the front end as well as the back, the next strategy is to acquire a SP. They could do that via trade or with a FA signing. The most cost effective FA signings with the ability to be a #2 or #3 that I've expressed interest in are Lucas Giolito and Trevor Bauer. Giolito's baggage is a horrible end of last season. Bauer's baggage needs no further explanation. Both would be guys capable of throwing 150 innings or more. In Golito's case probably 200. But what is a reasonable cost for these guys with Ohtani's recent signing and Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery and others still on the market? Assume for a moment that we sign Bauer or Giolito. The rotation becomes: Lopez, Bauer/Giolito, Ryan, Ober and Paddack. Varland is either your #6 SP or your 8th inning man in the pen. The depth you have is all unproven minor leaguers and Paddack reaching 100 innings pitched is considered his high end. You still need another SP even if Varland is the #6. Do you deal Max Kepler for Edward Cabrera? Do you make a bigger deal to bring in Miller or Woo from Seattle? Max Meyer instead of Cabrera from Miami? When you analyze where the Twins are for their rotation you can easily see that losing Gray and Maeda means they need at least TWO SP options through trades and/or FA. As much as I would love to see Varland blowing hitters away at the back end of our pen, I can see we need to keep him a SP at this time. The secret weapon lurking in the Twins future bullpen is Matt Canterino. I've read where they still consider him a SP. I just don't see it. One of Canterino or Varland needs to be groomed to be a back end bullpen guy. If I have to choose, I'm making that guy Canterino and I'm seeing what I've got from Varland as a SP in 2024. If Bauer or Giolito are signed as a FA I imagine a 3-year deal would be acceptable to both the Twins and the pitcher. What I would love to see the Twins do is sign Brandon Woodruff to a 2-3 year deal where they pay him $10 million for 2024 just to rehab and have him ready to step into that top of the rotation spot in 2025 & 2026. BUT...it's not my money. I can spend the Pohlad's money far too easily. But I think it would be a great strategy for 2025. The other possibility would be to sign Mahle for a very cost effective deal and see if he could be available and healthy for the 2nd half of 2024. I only do this if I'm fairly certain Mahle can pitch effectively for July, August and September. The Twins have trade chips in Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and possibly Vasquez (if they think Camargo is ready and they can get VALUE for Vasquez). Certainly some, and maybe ALL of these guys will be traded. There are MANY different ways the Twins FO could go to address their off season needs. Which ones will they choose?

(It didn't hurt having Walter Johnson at the top of their rotation). Yeah, 2010 will ALWAYS be the year of Morneau. He was having another MVP season and that concussion ended his season and even with the N.L. batting title later, it was clear he was never quite the same hitter. His power had been sapped. With the way Mauer and Morneau hit LH pitching, having a Mauer, Morneau and Thome 3-4-5 wouldn't have mattered. And Thome in his limited plate appearances was still "vintage" Thome. What might have been if Morneau had played the entire season healthy. Having one of the top closers in the game in Nathan would have made a great bullpen even better. It further makes the point that the Pohlad's have never made a BIG trade at the deadline to bring one or two guys in that could have made a difference. When your deadline deal claim to fame is Shannon Stewart, that kind of says it all. Maybe we would have still lost to the Yankees, but we'll never know, will we.

I have been suggesting a Polanco for Mitchel trade for some time. There would be no need to include a Winder or Sands, an even up trade is fair to both teams. The Brewers, even though they are cutting payroll wouldn't have any problem fitting Polanco and his $10 million into their 2024 budget. I believe the Twins are looking to leverage Polanco for pitching. But if they wanted to secure a top level prospect at an incredible bargain, getting Mitchell would be tremendous. He's fast and athletic. He's also 6:3 and 225 pounds. He's got power and it will continue to develop. He's a former #1 pick from UCLA who could be considered a poor man's Walker Jenkins. A future OF of Rodriguez, Mitchell and Jenkins would be pretty darn good. There's no way I would trade Julien for Frelick. I wouldn't deal Farmer for Taylor as I see Taylor as a #4 OF at best. The Brewers are loaded with prospects in the OF and have a dearth of them in the IF. The post pointed out who their projected starters at 1B, 2B and 3B are, it's UGLY. If the Twins can't leverage Polanco for pitching, the next best deal is to trade him to Milwaukee for Mitchell. Buxton, no matter what we're reading now in December cannot be counted on for anything. Having a guy like Mitchell and signing someone like Adam Duval would allow the Twins to leverage Kepler in a deal for pitching. We KNOW the Twins are going to make a trade for a pitcher. Whether that deal involves Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, two of the three, who knows? But the next biggest need is someone who can play 100-120 games in CF. I think Castro could do it. Castro could make a Cesar Tovar like transition to full time position player. But if the Twins want to keep Castro in that multi-positional utility role, then Garrett Mitchell would be an excellent full time CF for 2024 and beyond.

Did anybody NOT expect Ohtani to sign with the Dodgers? He hasn't been to a post season in his entire MLB career, now he'll be in the playoffs EVERY year. I'll admit, I was surprised at $700 million, I thought it would be $600 million. And I'm convinced the Dodgers know Ohtani may only pitch for 4 years or so of that contract. He is an elite hitter. There was really no other destination for him. Toronto, New York, San Francisco...not. a. chance. The entire industry wants to see Ohtani in the playoffs. I'm going to start a rumor that the Twins were actually in the bidding as one of those under the radar teams, but pulled out when the contract reached $650 million, $65 million annually. Even the Pohlad's knew they couldn't handle that. By the way, don't for one minute think the Dodgers are done. Yamamoto, Snell, Corbin Burnes...they still need SP. The Dodgers have become the poster child for a team that knows how to spend wisely to insure a playoff spot (they're the Anti-Mets) but still can't win a World Series unless the season is cut in half because they continue to employ a manager who if nothing else is elite at getting the LEAST out of the MOST. Yet despite this "HAVES" and "HAVE NOT'S" in baseball, the Dodgers haven't won a full season World Series since 1988. The Yankees haven't won one since the early 2000's. Last year saw Arizona and Texas battle it out with Texas winning their first World Series ever. Despite a money disparity that is truly appalling, baseball still finds a way to buck the odds. When you consider how boringly familiar it is to see the same teams year after year compete for College Football's National Championship, you realize that baseball is a lot more like the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. I don't know how that is. But I can at least cling to that hope as a Twins fan.

JD-Twins, I know you have been advocating for the Twins to acquire Devin Williams and I agree he would be a tremendous and worthwhile acquisition. But I just can't see the Twins getting him. I look at who the Brewers may be willing to trade and I just don't see the Twins being able to out bid a team like the Dodgers if the Brewers were willing to deal Williams or Corbin Burnes. The Dodgers have the young talent to give up a LOT to get those guys and the deep pockets to ensure that they would forgo FA to remain with the Dodgers. Williams and Burnes would amount to about 50-52 points of value on BBTV. The Dodgers could offer Michael Busch 2B (17.2) Miguel Vargas 3B/1B (19.1) and Emmett Sheehan SP (29.2) total value 65.5. That package would still allow the Dodgers to ask for get Garrett Mitchell OF 8.7 value. The Brewers get their starting 2B, 3B and a SP to replace Burnes with Sheehan and years of team control. The Dodgers get a Cy Young SP candidate to go with a returning Buehler and Miller, Pepiot and Stone. They get Williams to close pushing Evan Phillips to set up man. They also get Mitchell who would step in to RF with Betts at 2B. If I'm the Brewers and I'm really willing to move Burnes and Williams I do it in a blockbuster together, not one going here and the other going there where I get two immediate infield starters and a solid, young SP whose already had a taste of the major leagues. The crazy thing is that the Dodgers, in addition to Will Smith at the major league level, don't even touch their 2 minor league catching phenoms in Cartaya and Rushing. With Mookie moving to 2B I'll bet Doc Bauer would be interested in a package led by Max Kepler to acquire one of those guys if we traded Jeffers or Vasquez.

We always start with the assumption that Polanco will be traded for pitching. I know I surely do. But the Twins could also trade Polanco to the Brewers straight up for Garrett Mitchell, a 24 year old OF who would be our CF of the future. He's 6:3 225 pounds and is 25 years old. He's a big guy who moves very well. He can play all three OF positions. He was the Brewers #1 OF prospect until they drafted Jackson Chourio and injuries held him back these past two seasons. With Chourio set to start in CF next year the Brewers have an excess of OF (Yelich, Weimer, Frelick, Perkins) and not much talent at 2B. With the Red Sox stealing the opportunity for the Twins to trade for Tyler O'Neill (they got him for a couple of middling minor league pitchers) the LH hitting Mitchell would be an intriguing power/speed option for CF. Even with Wander Franco possibly missing all of 2024 for the Rays, they've got a ton of IF prospects and would not appear to be a team interested in getting Polanco in a package for Glasnow.

The Marlins make this trade because it gives them three useful pieces. They get Polanco's switch-hitting bat at 2B (Arraez plays 1B now). They get a swing pitcher in Winder who gives them some depth in their rotation after trading Meyer and losing Alcantara to Tommy John surgery for 2024, and they get an aging but effective when he's healthy LH in their bullpen. They are considering building AJ Puk's innings as a possible rotation guy instead of closer. The Twins do this trade because it gives them a young pitcher that slots in as a Ryan/Ober type rotation piece. Meyer is 24 and he would be part of the Twins plans and rotation for a minimum of 5 years. The Twins also effectively shed Polanco's $10.5 million dollar salary as well as Theilbar's $2.9 million (Caleb is the Twins most expensive relief pitcher by far). This Frees up $13.4 million of salary that the Twins could apply to a Giolito or Bauer level SP. Funderburk is replacing Theilbar's innings in the Twins bullpen already. This leaves the Twins needing to replace 30-35 innings (that's all Theilbar is going to throw this season) and they can do that with Headrick.

Cory, here is what a trade for Max Meyer from the Marlins would look like based on BBTV ratings. Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Max Meyer 24 Minors SP 0 0 0 16.7 13.4 16.7 20.1 Total Value: 16.7 Marlins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Jorge Polanco 30 Majors 2B Low 2 31.9 22.5 9.4 7.6 9.4 11.3 Josh Winder 27 Majors LRP SP Low 5 7 3.1 3.9 3.1 3.9 4.7 Caleb Thielbar 36 Majors RP Medium 1 6.6 3 3.6 2.8 3.6 4.3 Total Value: 16.90

Festa is on the timeline. But the most intriguing arm in the Twins system to me is Canterino. Whether he starts as an opener with his new arm, or is a Twins 2024 bullpen piece the guys raw stuff just looks NASTY. He's a Wildcard for the 2024 season. I'd like to see him up sooner than July or August.

Thanks Steve! Thanks Seth! I probably read his name several times but never realized the totality of the numbers he was putting up. I really should just google the "stats" of the various Twins farm clubs one in a while to take in more than just who may have had a hot week. Again, thanks for pointing this out !!

tony&rodney, regarding Sixto Sanchez...I've read he is throwing again but had not read about such a loss in velocity. I guess they finally got him to throw a bit at the end of last season but have nothing about him throwing in winter ball at all. he's had a consistent 97mph fastball that can touch 99-100. But if he's throwing in the low to mid 80's that's like Sam McDowell losing his fastball after the 1970 season and never really getting it back. Fatbat...I would probably work up a similar trade for Garrett as he and Luzardo are close in value. Garrett's value is 8 to 10 points lower, so maybe instead of Emm-Rod the player you replace him with would be Festa. As much as I am excited to see Emm-Rod in a Twins uniform, with Jenkins on the fast track I can see myself knuckling under and including him to get a young, controllable SP like Woo or Miller from Seattle. The problem with dealing Emm-Rod for either of them in my opinion is that I think the Mariners want immediate offensive contributors as they expect to contend NOW. Not someone that may be a season to season and a half away. And Seattle would be much more interested in Polanco for that immediate return. Maybe a Polanco-Miranda-Garrett Jax gets you Miller or Woo?

Would you do this trade? I would. I'm selling high on Jeffers and going with the veteran Vasquez with Camargo. I'm willing to give up Emmanuel Rodriguez to be able to bring in a top of rotation talent in Luzardo who finally also gives the Twins a LH starter. Jenkins on the fast track is the only reason I trade Rodriguez. We need this pitching. I insist on Sixto Sanchez as a thrown in. Kid has an electric arm. Think Matt Canterino. If he and Canterino can stay healthy (a big if, I'll concede) the Twins could have one end up in the bullpen and one in the rotation. But even if both ended up in the bullpen, can you imagine a pen with Duran, Sanchez and Canterino??? It's a big gamble to trade Jeffers and risk that Vasquez/Camargo flop. It's also a big gamble to trade Rodriguez. But the dividends Luzardo and Sanchez could bring to Twins pitching with Lewis, Julien, Lee, Jenkins, Kirilloff and maybe Miranda to build around offensively with Lopez, Luzardo, Varland, Ryan, Ober and Paddack is worth the risk in my opinion.

I can't see the Red Sox being interested in Taylor. They already have a young CF (Jarren Duran) who had a breakout season last year. The other clubs, maybe. Not Boston. I predict Ohtani signs with the Dodgers. Soto in Yankee Stadium will be interesting. Good trade for both teams. If the Marlins really are willing to trade Luzardo the price would be steep but it would be a tremendous opportunity for the Twins to add a 26 year old LH starting pitcher with electric stuff. He and Pablo Lopez at the top of the Twins rotation with young hitters coming up and maturing would make the Twins contenders for years. Here is a trade I proposed on BBTV. As I said, the price would be steep, but it's a classic "sell high" for both the Twins and the Marlins. Jeffers is the key piece going to Miami. Twins NAME POSITION SURPLUS Jesus Luzardo SP 63.3 Sixto Sanchez SP 0.0 Total Value: 63.30 Marlins NAME POSITION SURPLUS Ryan Jeffers C 28.5 Jorge Polanco 2B 9.4 Emmanuel Rodriguez OF 19.7 Josh Winder LRP 3.9 Total Value: 61.50 TWINSMARLINS