TopGunn#22

Thanks Ted! I think the Twins will need to swing at least one trade for pitching and have a Frankie Montas/Luis Severino/Lucas Giolito priced free agent SP signing. The Seattle trade for Gilbert isn't happening. I tried it on BBTV and it refused to validate it. Twins were getting 73.9 value for Gilbert and giving the Mariners 39.20 back. You'd need to remove Emm-Rod and insert Brooks Lee or Julien to even get close (you're still coming up with something around 62-65 in value). Gilbert is just too expensive. Blackburn is a non-starter. The other three are interesting. Keller cost wise is about the equal to Burnes. Both are 28 years old (again, only ONE year older than Ryan). The package to get either could probably be very similar with the Brewers and Pirates looking for prospects but also looking for a major league player or two that fits with their rebuild. The Keller deal with Wallner and Mercedes works value wise although the Pirates may request a pitcher like Festa or Raya instead of two OF. The numbers work on the Burnes deal as well although I think you would probably need to overpay slightly for Burnes given his pedigree and the competition you would face in his trade market. I would swap out Funderburk and include Jax instead. Jax has 1.7 more in value so that would juice up the offer, but I also don't want to deal Funderburk as he will be our primary lefty in the pen with Thielbar aging out and Moran lost for the season. Jax, Festa and Miranda gets you to a 32.9 value making the Burnes deal a slight, but necessary overpay. I'd replace Jax in the bullpen with Varland. One other possible Burnes deal would be Wallner 23.3 and Festa 8.7 (32 total) where you include Headrick 1.7 to sweeten the offer. The Manoah deal is interesting. He's only at a 14.5 value and I think you could swap out Kepler for Larnach and still make the deal. Larnach 5.5 and Festa 8.7 is 14.2 in value and that could work. If Wallner is in any other deal I would have to keep Kepler. You can trade Wallner AND Larnach this off season with Emm-Rod probably one season away and Jenkins charging ahead like a freight train.

I'm interested in Alonso. He's RH power and a 1B to boot. There is no way I'm trading Emm-Rod for him though, especially for one year. I would look to offer the following trade as I posted to BBTV. Twins get: Pete Alonso 12.0 29 years old. FA after the 2024 season. 12.0 total value. Mets get: Jose Miranda 5.1 26 yo Trevor Larnach 5.5 27 yo Kala 'i Rosario 2,2 21 yo. 12.8 Total value. The Twins would have to decide if they are willing to offer Alonso a contract for 6-7 years taking him to his age 36 or 37 season. It would be nice having 45 HR's and 100+ RBI's for several years in the middle of a Twins lineup. But Alonso is NOT fetching a prospect the quality of Emm-Rod from the Twins or a similar one from anybody else. Especially as a possible one year rental.

Well, if you're talking franchise icons you have to slip Kirby Puckett in there. He's the guy that led the Twins to 2 World Series Championships. Remember, Killebrew (Royals) and Carew (Angels) were both traded. We never traded Kirby. I also would include Emmanuel Rodriguez on this list. I would posit that if Buxton played 100 games in CF next season and hit .250 with 30 HR's and a team was interested in trading something GOOD for him, I'd do it. And I think the Twins would too. With Rodriguez and Jenkins on the way (both will be up by 2025/2026) I'd move Buxton to rid myself of that contract. But it could be worse. The Brewers have at least 5 more years of Christian Yelich at $26 million per year. And that's a big reason why Milwaukee is going to burn it all down and start over. They took a gamble on Yelich, got 2 spectacular years out of him and nothing close since. He's been decent, but not GREAT like he was. The list is pretty much what I would envision. I've mentioned moving Ryan previously because I see him as a #4 and no more. If I can do a deal where I bring back a #1 (Corbin Burnes for Ryan) I'm doing it. Burnes is ONE year older than Ryan. If I'm the Twins, I will invest in a stud #1 like Burnes to build a winner. With all the young talent up already, and soon to come up, and the only anchor weight contracts being Correa and Buxton that's what I'm hoping the strategy will be going forward. It's also why I question the wisdom of cutting salary for 2024. The Twins are on the verge of a very promising window. Why stifle the chance to push that window open wider over short term uncertainty of a TV deal. I love what Julien could bring to the top of our order for the sort and long term. But let's say he has a full season in which he actually improves against LH pitching and has a solid year. If Brooks Lee either breaks camp with the Twins or is up by May and HE has a solid rookie year with the bat and glove, unless the Twins teach Julien to be a 1B there is a possibility that he could be dealt for something VERY good. Even if Julien continues to struggle some with LH pitching but is solid, we would STILL get something very good for him. If you've got an infield of Kirilloff, Lee, Correa and Lewis and Buxton or Miranda is clogging up your DH...where do you find a consistent place for Julien? Nothing stays the same. The Twins will be continuously grading, revising and reevaluating their talent. The key is identifying who to keep and who you will chance trading. I'm not trading Lewis or Jenkins for anything...at least for the next 2-3 years.

I appreciate the background jorgenswest provided regarding Puckett and Harris from the Braves. It makes the suggestion plausible. It's is still HIGHLY unlikely, but there is at least a dash of logic to it. We've also commented on TD about how long either Emm-Rod or Jenkins could stay at CF or whether either or both will end up as corner OF even before they become big leaguers. The Twins (hopefully) have a really good idea on that. I just can't imagine either would suddenly just be incapable of playing CF while they're still in there 21-25 year old bodies. And each of them could very well be a Twin by 22 years old. With Buxton being a non-factor in the OF (and please, don't talk about Buxton being a 1B) and the Twins needing a real answer for CF in 2024, the decision to be made is this: Can Castro/Gordon/Martin hold down CF in 2024? Do the Twins need a long term solution like Lee Jung-hoo if Emm-Rod and Jenkins will never be CF? Or can they patch CF together until one of them takes CF over for about 5 years?

DJL44, you make a great point about Jax! He has one of the highest values for an easily replaceable asset on our team. It's one I've bounced around when looking at possible trades for solid starting pitching. For example, if I wanted to trade for Corbin Burnes and I didn't want to give up Joe Ryan, I would would look at the fact the Milwaukee wants to slash payroll and go for a youth movement. Bullpen pieces can get awfully pricey. Corbin Burnes BBTV of 32.0 Jax 19.1 Festa 8.7 Miranda 5.1 Total Value: 32.9 You can easily replace Jax with Varland. And now you've gained a #1 SP who will cost you $15.1 million in 2024 and you have the opportunity, like you did with Pablo Lopez, to sign him for 5 years up to his age 35 season. Why would Milwaukee want Jax? Because of those 4 years of control and the certain loss of Williams, their closer. The value of Jax makes him a very interesting trade chip for a SP or maybe even a CF. I'm not suggesting we SHOULD trade him, only echoing your point that we should consider what we could get in return for him and essentially replace him with Varland.

You could make a case to tender each of them and they probably will. However, Farmer will indeed be shopped and quite possibly traded by the time darkness falls in the state of Minnesota on Friday. At that point, Gordon makes more sense. I'm going to be a little contrary here and suggest that Thielbar is or should be a trade candidate. He makes $3 million, by far the highest salary in our bullpen. He's still effective but at 37 years old, how much longer will he be effective and as last season may have indicated, is he starting to break down. At any rate, he's been passed up by Funderburk. That kid has some crazy good stuff and is going to get a lot of work in 2024. And we're looking at a bullpen in 2024 that could include Varland as well as someone like Matt Canterino. The Twins philosophy has been to have young, cheap bullpen arms. If they can throw mid to upper 90's like Funderburk, Varland, Alcala, Stewart, Jax, Canterino and of course Duran, so much the better. If you trade Farmer and Thielbar the Twins free up nearly $10 million dollars. Trade Polanco and it's almost $21 million. Trade Kepler and it's $30 million. This allows you to go big game hunting for a solid free agent SP as well as trade for someone who would be affordable in 2024 (Corbin Burnes $15.1 million) but that you would be willing to shell out $25 million a year for 4 or 5 years for 2025 and beyond.

I wouldn't mind Julien at the top of the order and Castro/Martin at the bottom at all. Speed is BACK in the game of major league baseball (thank goodness) and guys that can consistently get on base and run (like Julien & Martin) may not be huge impact players but are solid, consistent contributors. Castro is the perfect bench guy with his positional versatility and speed in late game situations. It took Rocco awhile to warm up to the new rules that made base stealing appealing, but he finally did and Castro and to a lesser degree, Taylor. made it work. Martin just might be the answer in CF. We're still 2-3 years from seeing Emmanuel Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins out there. Can Martin be that guy in a platoon with Castro in 2024?

Great post, insights and observations. I think Cody's ETA's are pretty accurate. I agree with chpettit19 that the Wild card is Jenkins. To have him up at age 21 would be pretty impressive. But he could actually get here sooner and if he does, we have a HECK of a prospect. The comparison with Jackson Holiday was illuminating. One other player not mentioned was Noah Miller, he of minor league Gold Glove ability at SS. It's one thing to win a Gold Glove in the minor leagues. It shows EXCEPTIONAL defensive ability and future potential. Defense always plays with just "enough" offense. To win it at SS makes him a cream of the crop piece going forward. We all know Correa's time at SS is limited. He won't stick there through the life of his contract. Miller's Gold Glove should boost his value. Assuming Julien learns how to play some 1B, and Lee can handle SS, 2B and 3B. Miller is a potential Gold Glove major league SS. Where does that leave Lewis? Lewis is the cornerstone. He's hitting #3 or #4 in our lineup for the next 10 years. Kirilloff could always play LF or 1B if Julien ends up being a 1B/DH type (and he probably will). Where does Royce Lewis play if Emm-Rod or Jenkins is in CF for 3-4 years? There are certain players we will see the Twins move on from either this off season, at the trade deadline, or before the start of next season. Larnach, Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Vasquez, all fall in this category. Gray and Maeda are already out the door and ain't coming back. The number of BATS we have in this 3-year pipeline is impressive. However, we're pretty short on pitchers and none of our pitching prospects are at the level of a Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Lee, Jenkins or Emm-Rod. That leads me to believe that SOME of these elite bats might be/could be, moved in an effort to add quality starting pitching in trades. Also consider that this equation would be different if we had drafted Skenes instead of Jenkins (but Skenes went before we had the chance). This is a great position to be in. It's always better to have more talent than less. It gives you more options. But I wonder what moves the front office will make this winter in FA and trades. They have a LOT of different directions they could go. Let's hope they make the right ones.

Well said tony&rodney. If the Twins could trade Wallner straight up for Soto, even if it's for only one year I think you have to at least consider it. Especially with Emmanuel Rodriguez close enough to be the starting RF in 2025. Bauer is a hot topic. I just brought him up as what I think could be a cost-effective option for the rotation. There are plenty of players I'd rather take a swing at, like Montas, Giolito, Eduardo Rodriguez and others in FA and Burnes, Alcantara, Cabrera etc...in trades. But at $12 million per year, he'd certainly be better than Maeda. We're not even to the Winter Meetings yet and we've exhausted virtually every topic on TD in Daily Norseman Kirk Cousins vs. Josh Dobbs fashion. I'm with you in that, I think I've made my feelings known, but I'm to the point I'd like to just sit back and see what actually happens. I will say this. I think the Twins have a unique opportunity to cement a winning team with a solid window for at least the next 5 years. It would be MUCH easier to accomplish this by maintaining payroll despite the uncertainty of the TV money, but it is still possible even with the expected reduction. However, a couple of fringy moves are not what is needed. The FO has done a great job getting us into this position, but they need to take some big swings this winter. Whether that's trading for Corbin Burnes or Juan Soto, or signing TWO SP's to move Varland to the bullpen for 2024. There need to be some major moves made. I hope they're up to the task.

Fatbat, I went back and reviewed my rotation and you are correct !! I failed to mention Paddack. He would most likely be that 6th SP type that provides the always needed depth for the present era major league pitching staff. In these trades, I also picked up a 26 y/o arm in Sixto Sanchez from the Marlins who has an electric arm but has battled injuries. He and Paddack are those 6th SP guys who could also be multi-inning guys out of the bullpen. I would consider trading either but would much rather hang onto them and use them for 3 inning bullpen stints to keep other, shorter inning bullpen guys fresh, but also to have them handy as 6h SP, spot SP material when needed. But I'd have them up with the Twins if they were healthy and throwing darts. I wouldn't waste their arms in the minor leagues. You can never have too much pitching.

Good points in commenting on my post Rik and rv78. You both nailed the problem with relying too heavily on something like BTV, even though we need to use BTV or something very similar to get some kind of valuation of players. The values do indeed seem depressed for Alcantara and Castillo. Miami would be much more likely to trade a Max Meyer than their #1. Although Alcantara had a down year last year, Luzardo may actually be considered their Ace going into 2024. And I could see Seattle trading Woo or Miller, or taking whatever they could get for Robbie Ray due to his contract rather than trade their Ace.

Great Post ! This is where it gets confusing for those of us fans who try to follow baseball closely and think we know a little, but must admit we don't know a LOT. I think Polanco is certainly going to be traded with Julien and Lee available. Kepler, I'm not so sure, but could see it happening. From a trade standpoint, both are pretty solid players with a few warts but contracts that should make them attractive to certain teams. I use BBTV as well because it gives me at least a "clue" what an impartial "value" for a player would be. There are teams like Cleveland, White Sox, Mariners and Marlins who have pitching to trade and needs at 2B or RF. But look at the "values" of some Twins players and some pitchers we could have an interest in and their values: Polanco 4.5 Kepler 8.9 Larnach 7.8 and Jeffers 33.3. Jeffers would be a prime "sell high" candidate if you don't believe his 2023 season makes him our catcher for the next 5 years. Glasnow 13.1 30 years old. Dylan Cease 44.8 28 yo Mike Kopech -3.6 28 yo (I love his arm and would take a chance on it) Eloy Jimezez -7.3 (a RH hitting LF?) Luis Robert 84.8 (just the CF we could use. Big RH stick, good fielder. Not happening). Logan Gilbert 73.9 Bryan Woo 24.6 Robbie Ray -30.2 Bryce Miller 25.8 25 yo Ty France 3.6 (a 1B?) 29 yo George Kirby 98.6 26 yo Luis Castillo 20.8 31 yo. Logan Allen 27.0 25 yo Shane Bieber 5.7 29 yo Tristen McKenzie 30.9 27 yo Gavin Williams 40.4 24 yo Sandy Alcantara 15.3 28 yo Eduard Cabrera 8.5 26 yo Sixto Sanchez 0.0 26 yo max Meyer 16.7 24 yo Trevor Rogers 17.4 26 yo. Polanco or Max alone aren't getting anything done unless it's Max or Larnach straight up for E. Cabrera. If you're willing to trade Jeffers, you can aim higher, count on a bounce back season from Vasquez and promote Camargo to backup catcher. Any deal I do with Miami I want to have Sixto Sanchez included. Two or three years ago he was a hot prospect. Then injuries started to plague him (think Canterino) and his value has plummeted to zero. He's still just 26 and if you can unlock that arm talent, you've got a steal. He's still considered a starter but all he needs is health to take off. You see some of these values and it's tough to envision the Twins trading for a Kirby or a Gilbert. But talented pitchers like Alcantara, Castillo and Glasnow are at an affordable level trade-wise. Castillo already has a big contract (5 yrs $108 million which is more cost efficient than Sonny Gray will be). Alcantara is signed for 5 years and $56 million. Glasnow will earn $25 million in 2024 and then be a free agent. I'd target Alcantara and Castillo. They aren't unreasonable cost wise for a trade and each comes with 5 years of control. Castillo at $21.6 million (He's always been twice the pitcher Sonny Gray was) and Alcantara at just over $11 million per season. Those two give the Twins a rotation of Castillo, Lopez, Alcantara, Ryan and Ober. How do we get them? Trade #1 with Mariners Mariners Get: Kepler 8.9 OF Miranda 5.3 1B/3B/DH 26 yo David Festa RHP 8.7 23 yo and Misael Urbina 2.3 OF 21 yo Total Value 25.2 Twins Get: Luis Castillo 20.8 SP 31 yo (we have him for his 31-35 year old seasons at about $21 million per, and Ty France 3.6 1B 29 yo. Total Value 24.4 Trade #2 with Marlins Marlins Get: Jorge Polanco 4.5 2B/3B Trevor Larnach 7.8 OF 27 yo Josh Winder RHP 4.9 27 yo. Total Value: 17.2 Twins Get: Sandy Alcantara 15.3 28 yo. and Sixto Sanchez 0.0 RHP 26 yo. Total Value: 15.3. In each case it needs to be a slight overpay to acquire quality starting pitching. Each team gets a little more juice for their offense and a young pitcher to replace the arm their losing. The Mariners do the deal because they need to add offense and Kepler and Miranda could do that and they already have Kirby, Gilbert, R. Ray, Woo and Bryce Miller in their rotation. They can afford to trade Castillo and he's their most expensive arm. The Marlins make the deal because Polanco and Larnach give their lineup a jolt and they get a decent bullpen arm back in Winder. They also already have Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Trevor Rogers, Eduard Cabrera and Max Meyer slated to be in their 2024 rotation. And they have more arms on the way. The trades at least pass the smell test because there is the sense that there could be comparable value. But none of us knows how the teams ACTUALLY value their players and other teams players. This would be a bold move to build an awesome rotation with fixed costs for the big three for about 5 more seasons. The Ryan and Ober costs would be dealt with at the appropriate time. With so many affordable young hitters, I think the Twins have a unique opportunity to build a starting staff like this. And Jenkins, Lee, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Royce Lewis are the core you build around. I might even deal Farmer to open up $6.6 million more if I think Castro can fill in adequately at 2B, 3B, CF, LF and even SS. Maybe there's even enough money to afford Jung-hoo Lee to play CF and I get Ty France as a 1B/DH RH bat who makes contact consistently. What does everyone think?

I'm not comfortable with any assertion that Juan Soto is a "Problem" guy. A "Me" guy. Based on what? Based on NOTHING. I will agree that he is a tremendous offensive player who would really add juice to any lineup while playing below average corner outfield defense. He would be a tremendous addition to the Twins lineup, even if it was for one year only. That said, if the Twins were showing a willingness to INCREASE payroll to make a run, conversations regarding Soto would make some sense. According to BBTV you could trade Wallner straight up for Soto. They're 23.9 values are exactly equal. Would that be enough to get him? Maybe. But if you were going to trade Wallner, or possibly Ober and Larnach, you would have to make corresponding moves in FA to sign a couple of SP's, like Frankie Montas and Lucas Giolito. If you're pushing all your chips to the middle of the table to make a serious run, you don't hold any chips back. Trading Kepler and Polanco helps mitigate what you'd be paying Soto. Gray's departure allows you to sign Montas. Moving Farmer and Theilbar helps pay for some of Giolito. But that's a LOT of moving parts. In regards to the Padres being a mess. Heck YES they're a mess. They've underachieved by their own and their fans expectations. They will lose the N.L. Cy Young Award winner and one of the top 5 closers in baseball. Their rotation is a mess with Wacha probably leaving and an aging, increasingly fragile and ineffective Yu Darvish and an injured Joe Musgrove leading their staff. Manny Machado is UNHAPPY and has a contract that is virtually immoveable. At least they still have Fernando Tatis. Yup...they are a mess. Pete Alonso would be a fascinating addition to our lineup. Solves the 1B problem. RH power hitter good for 40 HR's and 100 RBI's per season. (sounds almost Killebrew-esque) he would make a great cleanup hitter. He would actually be someone that could be affordable beyond next season if you were willing to make Kirilloff an OF. But to get him you'd have to trade. All it would take to get Rhys Hoskins is money. Hoskins isn't as good as Alonso but he's not bad at all. Problem is, money seems to be an issue for the Twins. Love the conversation. Just stay away from disparaging a player based on nothing. None of us are "insiders" who could honestly claim we have the real deal news on player X being a cancer. That goes for Soto, or Trevor Bauer or whoever. We. Don't. Know.

The Twins can't count on anything from Buxton going forward. Nothing. The first priority is replacing Gray in the rotation. After that, I'm not interested in anything the likes of Pillar, Marisnick et al. We have some in-house candidates but nobody who is a full-time type of solution. Whether it's trading for someone like a Garrett Mitchell or Joey Weimer from the Brewers, Tyler O'Neill from the Cardinals, or signing someone like the Korean League star Lee, it has to be an option that is a full-time solution. We've all discussed Buxton's chronic unavailability ad nauseum. Secure a full-time solution and move on.

Speaking of eye tests...Rafael Palmiero winning a Gold Glove at 1B...when he was a DH for virtually the entire season!!! That was the ultimate "I DON'T BELIEVE WHAT I JUST SAW !! We'll see yah, tomorrow night" moment. I agree with Morosi, Polanco is going to get traded in a package of players to either get us a pitcher (Miami?) or a CF. As someone wrote, and was kind enough to put it BOLD letters, you can't have every spot filled on your team with veterans making $10 million or more. Unless you're the Yankees or the Dodgers. We have young talent knocking on the door to be admitted to "The Show." It worked out pretty well last season. Let's keep it going.

I'm not a big fan of the caretaker stuff either, so I'm commenting without seeing the entire list. Was either Ryan or Ober included on this list? They should be. I'm all in favor of trading for Corbin Burnes. But any deal involving him has to be approached with a good idea we sign him for another 4-5 years. With all the young position player talent we have and what's soon to come up, the Twins are in a unique position to pay for elite pitching at the top of their rotation and afford it for the next 4-5 years. I'm not trading Jenkins for anything. I'd think long and hard about Rodriguez depending on what I was getting back. Polanco is a spare part, but the opinion of Lee & Julien being duplicative is a good one. Does Lewis ever play SS? How long does Correa have before he would need to shift to 3B? Are either Lewis or Lee good enough to replace Correa at SS once Carlos moves to 3B? And finally, where does Julien fit in all of this? Could he transition to 1B? If he does, and you have Kepler for the short term (one more season at the longest) as well as Wallner, Em-Rod, Kirilloff and Jenkins, not to mention Larnach, left to play 2 corner OF spots. And Larnach still has more trade value right now than Polanco, Miranda and Kirilloff and Kepler. I'm trading larnach to somebody this winter. Maybe to Miami for Cabrera. Clearly, trades need to made and 40-man roster spots opened up. If Ryan and Ober weren't included on the list, why not? I'm in favor of dealing Ryan who I don't think will ever develop into a #2 or #3 but could still be a decent, and for the time being cost efficient pitcher. But the Twins are looking a a solid 5-year window if they make the right choices this winter. I'd rather have guys like Burnes, Montas or Giolito in my rotation going forward than wondering which version of Ryan shows up first half/second half or week to week.

I agree with Gary Ward. Too "thick" for Ro-Wash.

I'm on the fence. I like that he HITS. He may not walk enough, but experience can help with this. But he's not an "all or nothing" profile like Gallo or Sano. The fact that they put him on the 40-man however, gives them the option to bring him up out of spring training if he's playing well and Kiriloff is still fighting injury, OR, if Kirilloff is raking, leave him down in St. Paul for a bit. A lot of this depends on what the Twins do in free agency or trades. To me, 1B is pretty far down the list of needs. I'm focused on two SP's and a CF and maybe one bullpen arm. Severino is one of the reasons I think 1B isn't screaming need. And I also love that he's a switch hitter and has power and success from both sides. That consistency plays well in my opinion and doesn't saddle you with a switch hitter who is clearly better on one side of the plate. When the Rule 5 draft rolls around, I could see the Twins looking for a pitcher with a particular profile who they think could add "juice" to our bullpen. That's why a spot on the 40-man roster is so valuable.

Realistically, I don't think we can get Burnes unless Ryan is included in the deal. Minus Ryan, it would take Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins, or Julien to get in the conversation. At that point, I think the Yanks or Dodgers or whoever, elbows us out of the way. But remember, Ryan is only one year younger than Burnes. The reason Burnes could be a Twin this coming year MUST be because we'd be willing to sign him for the next 5 years. Otherwise, I don't want to give up on Ryan either for just a one-year rental, even though Burnes and Lopez at the top of our rotation could lead to a World Series title in 2024.

tony&rodney, you are CORRECT! Burnes would be getting about $15.1 million though arbitration in what would be his final year in Milwaukee. I don't know why I typed $10.5 but that is wrong. I've thrown out a couple Corbin Burnes trade ideas but you're right to ask "would Milwaukee go for that?" I'd noodle it around and actually overpay a bit if I had to. According to BBTV, a straight up swap of Burnes for Ryan would be an overpay by about 7 points. The controllable cost for Ryan being the main driver. On talent alone, Burnes would be a huge upgrade for the twins staff. I'd love to make a deal with Milwaukee, especially if it also brought back Garrett Mitchell. We'd have a 25 year old CF as well as a former Cy Young winner pitching in his age 29 season. However, it's already being floated that the Yankees and Dodgers are sniffing around Burnes. I think any trade to acquire Burnes will have to be somewhat of an overpay. I think a young, controllable pitcher like Ryan is the clincher for the Twins. The Yankees and Dodgers don't have a comparable "Ryan" that they could trade. But there will be interest from multiple teams for Burnes. I love the idea of Burnes at $15 million and Montas at $12-$13 million being added to the Twins rotation. And like Heiny, if not Montas, Giolito is a workhorse who could turn things around in Minnesota. I like Montas better, but would still be happy with a Burnes/Giolito pairing as well.

Bader is a VERY GOOD CF. There would be no drop off in defense in CF were he to be signed. I'm out on MAT. Career year, sure to regress, will be overpaid as a result. But the problem with Bader is his atrocious hitting vs RH pitchers. I'm not paying $5-$8 million for a platoon guy who "might" see the field 33% of the time. His splits are tremendous against LH pitching but he's practically an automatic out vs. RH pitching. Once I've secured my pitching replacements in the rotation, if I haven't acquired a good CF option like Garrett Mitchell, I'd be taking a good look at Jung-hoo Lee. He's also stellar in CF but is so much more complete as a hitter that I'd try to find a way to fit him into the budget. At 25 years old, he would grow with the core of Lewis, Julien, Jeffers, Brooks Lee, Emm-Rod and Jenkins. Otherwise, I'd check in with the Cardinals on 27 year old Tyler O'Neil. (Sorry Byron, you're just not a part of any short term or long term plans anymore. How could you be?)

Excellent post Gregg ! This is something I've been advocating but not as clearly as your post laid out. I've been advocating for acquiring TWO SP's. These would essentially replace Gray and Maeda and allow Varland a year in the bullpen. I'm not giving up on Varland as a SP. I'm just going all in on a dominant bullpen in 2024 with him and a couple more arms contributing. You have thrown out some names that could help. Let me throw some out and offer my reasoning. 1. Yamamoto--He's the obvious choice. He will be a better pitcher in 2024 than Sonny Gray. He's also going to cost over $200 million and the Twins will simply be outbid by a bunch of deep pocketed teams who desperately want him. It's fun to dream of seeing him in a Twins uniform, but it's a pipe dream. So on to more realistic "dreaming." 2. Frankie Montas--Mike Sixel suggested him a day or so ago and I think it's a really good idea. Mike thinks the Twins could get him for about $12 million per season for 3 years. That would fit perfectly in our limited budget for the near future, and Montas has great stuff. Presumably he's healthy and if you're looking for a guy to be a #2 or #3 he's got the potential to be it. Lucas Giolito is the consolation prize, but he may be slightly more expensive and isn't quite as talented as Montas. But he eats innings and strikes guys out. Not bad as a #3 or #4. 3. Corbin Burnes--He's a former Cy Young Award winner and at 29 years old, is just one year older than Joe Ryan. Burnes started 32 games last year and threw 194 innings. He won 10 games and struck out 200. His ERA was 3.39 and WHIP was 1.07. Gray's WHIP was 1.15 and Burnes had better numbers in each pitching category than Gray except ERA. He wouldn't just replace Gray, he would exceed Gray in all aspects of pitching in 2024. I've posted this trade for Burnes: Twins Get: Burnes 32 value and Garrett Mitchell CF 11.3 value. Total Value: 43.3 Brewers Get: Joe Ryan 39.1 value and Miranda 5.1 value. Total value: 44.2 The bonus of this trade is that you have a talented 25 year old to play full time CF as well. That would leave the Twins with a staff of: Burnes, Lopez, Montas, Ober, Paddock. That's very likely the best rotation the Twins have ever boasted. However, because we sold high on Ryan to get a Cy Young candidate in Burnes we still need one more SP for depth unless you are comfortable with SWR, Winder, Festa, Raya, or Balazovic providing that depth. Would that be a Ryu type? It would have to be someone from the bargain bin like a Shoemaker, Happ, Archer type, but this arm would be pitching in St. Paul and only called upon if there was an injury. Modern era pitchers get owies. No team goes an entire season without an I.L. stint of two. Maybe that guy is Dallas Keuchel. But whoever it is will have to pitch better than the aforementioned minor league guys to earn a stint in the Twins rotation. That would be my plan to replace Gray and Maeda in the aggregate. Because of a legit 5-year window opening up for this Twins team and despite my reduced payroll, I want to make an emphatic statement. Burnes will cost about $10.5 million in his walk year. Once the TV revenue is recouped I'd try to sign him to a 5-year extension to keep him through his age 35 season. Signing Montas to a 3-4 year contract sets the Twins rotation of Burnes, Lopez, Montas and Ober for several years. Who knows about Paddock? Maybe Festa or Raya have supplanted him by then. Maybe Ober is dealt before he gets too expensive and he's replaced by Varland or Soto. The Twins, like most major league teams have to make those yearly decisions on who to pay and who to promote.

I've been a Frankie Montas guy for a few years. I was advocating the Twins trade for him when the Yankees swooped in and made the deal. Good thing, because Montas was not yet healthy, hid it, and then went on I.L. after a few poor outings only to need surgery and miss all of 2023. I guess if that establishes anything, it's that I can be wrong. VERY wrong sometimes. That said, I'd love it if we signed him. But I agree with Mike that it can't be the only pitching move they make. They need to sign or trade for at least one other SP. Is it a big swing like Corbin Burnes, or something a little less. like Eduard Cabrera. Do they compliment a Montas signing with a Giolito or Severino signing? If I had to make a bet, it would be that they sign one SP and trade for another. Signing 2 is the lowest odds just due to the money. Trading for 2 is more likely, but not the best play. They need to spread the cost in dollars and prospect talent out. So a FA signing and trade would be the best. I'd love to see them swing my Burnes for Joe Ryan deal and then sign Montas. A staff of Burnes, Lopez, Montas, Ober and Paddock would be pretty tough. Moving Varland to the bullpen is doable with this kind of rotation. Suggesting Montas and/or Luis Severino are 2nd tier options but their upside is far beyond the Archer, Bundy, Happ, Shoemaker types the twins have tried in the past. This team is built to succeed. Ownership and management need to realize that and not squander smart opportunities.

Eventually, the Twins WILL have some sort of TV deal. But I also would like to see them reconsider the payroll cut for 2024. Each season brings new challenges and opportunities. The Twins should not be arbitrarily "disarming" for 2024. The division is indeed eminently "winnable" in 2024. That shouldn't be the shortsighted goal. The goal should be a plan that makes them formidable World Series contenders for the next 5 seasons. This is like what I mentioned in another post in the conversation I recently had with a Brewers fan. The year was 2018 and the Brewers had just stunned the loaded Dodgers in the playoffs. Yelich had just completed his first awesome year in Milwaukee. The young pitching pipeline was arriving. The Brewers, with a manager like Craig Counsell were in a true window of opportunity. Fast forward 5 years, their ownership and front office tried to get by on the cheap, making fringy moves here and there but always with an eye on COST and not what would get them over the hurdles needed to take that next big step. Now look where the Brewers are. Their window has slammed shut. Counsell has left to take a big payday with the hated divisional rival Cubs. The Brewers are contemplating blowing it all up to embark on a major rebuild. They've got several very promising OF prospects and a SP (Peralta) signed to an incredibly team friendly contract for the next 3 years and a solid catcher/hitter in William Contreras. But mainstays in their rotation like Burnes and Woodruff are probably history. This is somewhat similar to the Twins in the mid 2000's with Santana, Mauer, Morneau and Nathan. The talent was there to win a World Series but the Twins focused on COST and not what it would take to add one more stud SP to pair with Santana or a RH hitter to sandwich between Mauer and Morneau. How often do these windows open up for a team in a market the size of the Twin Cities or Milwaukee??

I think the Twins need to address at least one SP slot through trade or FA before they go hunting for a bat (CF or 1B type). And I'd almost feel more comfortable if they addressed BOTH SP slots through FA or trade before they go hunting for a bat. I like what Jung-hoo Lee could bring to the lineup (an elite contact hitter with some power) and defensively in CF.