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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. TopGunn#22
    I think it's possible to be both a "seller" and a "buyer" at the trade deadline. It takes a skilled FO to do it, but there are plenty of examples where it's been done. Is "OUR" FO skilled enough to pull it off? I don't really know. But I do know that after a FO assembles the talent/roster for a given season there is a "settling in" point where things begin to go off the rails. Players who were expected to perform at a certain level are either meeting, exceeding or falling short (some falling waaay short) of their expected level. This is when adjustments need to be made. All major league sports have some form of salary cap. Sometimes it's a hard cap like the NFL. In the NBA there are ways to exceed the cap with financial penalties levied if you do so at various levels. Baseball, while not having a specific salary cap doesn't mandate a salary floor either. But MLB teams that do exceed a certain salary "level" DO pay a tax. As Twins fans on TD we're always talking about what the Pohlad's "would" or "wouldn't" do based on whatever their self-imposed budget constraints are. This is ALWAYS tied to whatever TV revenue is expected. I've never heard any discussions on the T-Wolves or Wild sites I visit that revolve around what ownership can do with payroll based on what the TV contract provides. Remember, the T-Wolves and Wild season are done. They are now fully in local TV/Media LIMBO. When the Twins are finishing THIS season, the Wolves and Wild will be just beginning their 2024-2025 seasons. What will our local viewing options for all three be at that time? It's hard to see the Twins as a contender this season after being swept by the Yankees and shut out by the Pirates (however, did anyone else notice that just prior to our series with the Pirates they took 2 out of 3 from the Dodgers with dominant pitching performances in the two games they won?). The Twins are still in a period of determining what adjustments they need to make to their roster and whether they are even viable contenders, or just pretenders.
  2. TopGunn#22
    TD could have picked any number of teams to feature for an article like this and they picked Colorado. Honestly, there is not a single player on their roster who makes any sense for us or would be a good fit. We need SP. Colorado has none. We need a backup catcher to Jeffers and while Diaz wouldn't be a BAD option, you've got to find someone willing to take Vasquez. That ain't Colorado. We're all correct in thinking the guys we have now just need to play better. If they do start playing better and we get to the end of June/early July, that would be the time to see what SP they could add with a couple of years control remaining. And before they would consider that, I think Festa needs to replace Paddack in the rotation. May as well see what Festa can do NOW before making a deal.
  3. TopGunn#22
    Doc, when you say Emma...do you mean E-Rod?? :>) I whole heartedly agree with the Cavaco cognitive dissonance. It's one thing if a known, highly thought of prospect, suddenly builds up steam as the draft approaches. It's quite different when a kid kind of "comes out of nowhere." Dax Whitney seems like a kid teams were on, but has now shown a burst in progression. Add to that Whitney's projectability and he could go higher than anticipated. High School pitchers are always kind of a Russian Roulette scenario but at least they come to you with a clean slate with not being overused by a college coach. I'm not as concerned about Waldschmidt's arm as others. We're not talking Carlos May or Matty Alou arm strength. If the speed allows for good range and the bat plays to projection he would be a solid prospect. I saw one mock draft where we selected Tyler White from LSU. Defensively, he's a problem. He's LSU's 3B but he may not stick there. He may be a 1B/DH type like Sabato. Sabato has been a major disappointment to me. White, has been LSU's BEST hitter for practically the entire time he's been there. He was better than Dylan Crews. He was the guy that always came up with clutch hits for LSU (kind of like Larnach did for Oregon State in their Championship season). The appears to be real (even though Sabato's seemed as well). I wonder what our reactions would be on TD if he ended up being our first pick overall?
  4. TopGunn#22
    Yup. This is the version of Buxton we will be saddled with for the rest of this contract. The sooner the Twins can move forward with E-Rod, Jenkins or even Keirsey in CF the better off the Twins will be as a whole. If there was some way to buy him out of this contract, cut the cord and just move on I would be overjoyed. He is a very difficult player to watch now because the expectation for "WOW" is always there, but he consistently fails to deliver.
  5. TopGunn#22
    And wouldn't you know it...Just after wyatt wrote this Luzardo gets hammered giving up 9 earned runs in a short start vs. Tampa Bay and Montas goes 6 no-hit innings for the Reds !! Baseball is just so unpredictable. I still think Luzardo would be an excellent target. It seems to me that things are getting downright toxic in Miami. Nobody is having fun down there. The Marlins seem to have no focus. If anything, Luzardo's latest outing may have lowered his price somewhat. It's clear in watching the Twins play the Yankees that we don't have the pitching to compete and our offense just disappeared in the 5 games we've played them so far this year. Better starting pitching is the only thing that could save the Twins in these post season playoff games. Paddack should be moved to the bullpen, opening up at least one rotation spot. It will be interesting to see how badly the Pohlad's want to return to the post season or if they pack it in at the deadline. Cleveland isn't showing any signs of slowing down.
  6. TopGunn#22
    Fun read to see what "possible deals" could be considered in the not too distant future.
  7. TopGunn#22
    Luzardo is JUST what the Twins need. An All Star caliber SP who is LEFT-HANDED. Getting him wouldn't be cheap but it would be worth it to see what the price of poker is. Teams that PITCH are always in ball games. Lopez, Luzardo and Ryan as a 1-2-3 in a future 7 or 5 game series would be exciting. I'd like to see the Twins center a trade around Wallner or Julien. Look, Brooks Lee is NOT the heir-apparent to be our UTILITY MAN ! He's being looked at a STARTER at a specific position. It doesn't hurt that Lee would have the ability to play 2B, SS or even 3B. But when he finally makes it to the majors, he's going to be a starter at a specific position. Correa is the SS for at least 5 more years. Lewis will be the fixture at 3B as well. That leaves 2B. One of Lee or Julien is expendable for an All Star level pitcher. Between Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner there is at least one corner OF type who will be by-passed by E-Rod or Jenkins (or Gabe Gonzalez for that matter). Having 2 and a half years of control over Luzardo is what makes this very intriguing. The Twins would have Lopez-Ryan-Luzardo for the rest of this season, 2025 and 2026. If all three are pitching at an All Star level throughout that time the trade would have paid off in spades. I would also love to find a way to off-load Vasquez in this deal as well. Even if we agree to absorb a portion of his $10 million salary as well. The Marlins have been interested in him in the past and they have the absolute WORST catching situation in major league baseball. They may even take Vasquez WITHOUT any salary help they are so desperate for an actual major league catcher. The problem with this though is that nobody at St. Paul has stepped up to make this possible, so including Vasquez is unlikely. How about Julien and Wallner for Luzardo? Would Julien and Wallner merit a little something extra thrown in by Miami?
  8. TopGunn#22
    Doc Gast, thanks for listing out what a possible trade could be. I would not make the trade as displayed either. But I wonder what Julien's "value" is right now? After last season, I would have guessed it would be higher than his 34.0 or so. Has it slipped since his rough start to this season? At one time, you could almost envision a Julien for Mason Miller deal straight up. Not so sure that would be true now with one heading to an All Star selection and the other headed to St. Paul to "find his stroke."
  9. TopGunn#22
    It always comes down to cost. I will say this...Miller has a power arm that few in baseball can match. He's not some "one hit wonder" like Javier Lopez was. He's already pitched 26 innings this year, so he's going to blow past that 52 and 2/3 innings high he set last year. He's also got 52 K's in 26 innings. FIFTY TWO !! That's 2 K's per inning. Again, the stuff is incredible. So what would it REALLY cost? Kirilloff or Larnach aren't getting this deal done. Maybe one of them could be a throw in but certainly not a centerpiece. I don't go to Baseball Trade Values anymore because I can't see paying for a site I would visit around the Winter Meetings and MLB Trade Deadline all year long. But this is an example where a site like that could come in handy. Would Eddy Julien and Kirilloff/Larnach get it done? Would Emmanuel Rodriguez straight up get it done? Or Brooks Lee? Mason Miller is the real deal and as a rookie, he'd be a Twin for several years. With the depth the Twins have in their system, a deal could be done. At some point there will be a crossroads with Julien/Lee. At some point, you may not be able to get enough AB's for Jenkins/E-Rod/Gonzalez/Wallner. The Twins already have issues with Kirilloff/Larnach/Wallner. With position players you run into log-jams like this. With a pitcher, you don't. We could survive a trade of Julien for example with a talent like Brooks Lee, or E-Rod with a Jenkins or Gonzalez (or a Winokour). Would Jose Miranda be in the mix? Mason Miller would have an immediate positive impact. So what would the deal be? Julien & Wallner? Julien & Kirilloff? Julien & Gonzalez? I'd do any one of those three to get an arm like Mason Miller. And consider this: Miller wouldn't HAVE to remain a closer. He could be eased into the starting rotation. Name me 5 guys that have a BETTER arm with better STUFF than this kid. We've had all sorts of discussions about possibly moving Duran back into a starting role. Why not Mason Miller? I write this more as a counterpoint than as an ironclad endorsement of making a trade. I wouldn't just discount this idea with zero consideration. Mason Miller is a heck of a talent. What would be the cost to make a trade?
  10. TopGunn#22
    MARGOT !! But there are still some moves to be made within the next 2-4 weeks. Time to cut out some dead timber and start growing some new trees.
  11. TopGunn#22
    There is no other way to describe the roster decisions of Vasquez, Margot and Farmer as nothing but a disaster. Especially when the FO cut $30 million from the payroll and decided to keep these guys. Santana has provided decent defense at 1B (the dropped throw from Duran considered) and some recent power, but I would really rather be looking at a Kirilloff/Miranda platoon and have pocketed the Santana money as well. The Twins roster is still a work in progress. I'd love to find out if Miami is still desperate for a competent major league catcher who can handle a pitching staff but can't hit his weight. Nobody will want Margot and as Riverbrian pointed out, Farmer is handcuffed to Julien. If Julien ever starts hitting, and I can't imagine Julien continuing to look this bad, meaning a regression to his mean should be coming sometime, Famer's time should be coming to an end. It's like our bullpen. When it's all said and done, most of the veteran additions we made will probably pitch themselves off the roster and a guy like Varland may find his way back up to the Twins firmly entrenched in a bullpen role. Guys like Stewart, Funderburk and Acalala will probably also fill back in as replacements for these failing bullpen vets. The failed vet bullpen signings aren't as bad as the Vasquez, Margot, Farmer, Santana money (especially Vasquez at $10 million) but I'm just pointing out the obvious by "Monday Morning Quarterbacking" these moves. Hindsight is ALWAYS an eagle-eyed 20/10.
  12. TopGunn#22
    Much of this was already touched on in the Margot article and it certainly calls into question the off season plan and vision. On the one hand, we needed to fill 2 rotation spots and opted to fill them from within, that prior to SWR's success had not exactly had a great track record. We wisely moved on from guys like Michael Taylor and Donovan Solano who had a year not likely to be repeated in 2024. However, there were a LOT of us on TD who questioned the need to bring Farmer back at $6+ million per year when we were being told that every penny counted in the doom and gloom revenue projection of 2024. Especially with Castro emerging and Brooks Lee on the not too distant horizon. Even with the end of ST injury to Lee it's easy to see that bringing Farmer back was a mistake. The Twins are paying Correa (worth it) a LOT. They are paying Buxton (questionable) a lot (at least by Twins standards). They are paying Pablo (worth it, despite the early season struggles) and Vasquez (NOT worth it). Look at this roster and see how many guys are making the minimum or close to it. It's easy to second guess the FO on many of these decisions but it's also "gut punch obvious" that the FO DESERVES the criticism. It is VERY MUCH like the Twins to clutch with a death-grip intensity, players they have OVER-invested in, much like Joey Gallo last year, to somehow get their money's worth from those dollars while to the fans the carcass of a Gallo, or in this case Farmer and Margot, gets smellier and smellier as the weather gets warmer.
  13. TopGunn#22
    Of course the Poland's could afford to add Vald Jr. He's not the bat he was, but maybe a change of scenery and a different approach gets him back to being one of the most feared RH hitters in baseball. This is the problem with being a Twins fan...We're not allowed to DREAM. Of course the Pohlad's would never consider this. But the frenzy some guys come out with criticizing this article is both sad and laughable. We come to this site to just "talk baseball." This is the essence of "Talking BASEBALL!!" Everything doesn't have to be logical. Sometimes it can be fun. Baseball Trade Values has Vlad Jr.'s "Value" at only 8.4. That's a reflection of his recent disappointing production. He could actually be had for a lot less than people would expect. Toronto is reeling this season. Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette are NOT living up to expectations. Dalton Varsho hasn't since he came over in the trade with the D-Backs. I don't visit Baseball Trade Values much anymore because I refuse to pay for what once was free. But we should be having fun discussing what it would take to get Vlad and how he could possibly add some juice to our lineup.
  14. TopGunn#22
    I don't think it's "hate" when people point out reasons why Max Kepler may not be a Twin next year, or even past this year's trade deadline, it's LOGIC. Look, Max is one of my favorite Twins but the ECONOMICS of this make it pretty obvious that his days are numbered. That's how the Pohlad's run this franchise. Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner and E-Rod. Those are all the reasons why Max will probably be replacing Jason Heyward in RF for the Dodgers at some point this year or next. It doesn't matter that Max is a better player than any of those guys listed. It's that Max will price himself out of the Pohlad's acceptable cost parameters and each of those other guys will fall within their expected cost parameters. Ownership and the FO is expecting one of those listed guys to "pay off." "It is the Twins way..."
  15. TopGunn#22
    A lot of this depends on health. If guys get hurt, opportunities present themselves. However, "performance" should also be a consideration. The Twins have demonstrated in the past that they are VERY averse to making snap decisions based on "performance." Witness...Gallo, Shoemaker, Sano, et al. (the list is quite long). The Twins will stick with a poor performing player well past their "best used by" date. Margot should be gone. Farmer is doing nothing to compel me to WANT to stick with him. That's $10 million of "mistakes." If Julien continues to take called 3rd strikes and Lee gets hot right out of the gate at St. Paul there should be pressure to give Julien a chance to find his confidence and stroke down in St. Paul. It doesn't mean Julien won't make it back up. E-Rod is a VERY interesting case. Keirsey is already performing well in St. Paul, and he has for the last 2 seasons. But it's also true that guys can make the jump straight from AA. SWR is giving the Twins a tremendous lift to date. If he maintains, he's not coming out of the rotation. But if Paddack falters, that could open the door for Festa. I think unless Louis Varland gets his act together at St. Paul he's pitching himself into a future bullpen role on the big club. Raya and Severino are farther away than projected. I can't see Raya up until mid-late 2025 until he's proven he can hit 80-90 pitches. That's as a STARTER. If the Twins want to promote him to shore up the bullpen in a stretch run and for the playoffs he could get broken in slowly in a Johan Santana type of way.
  16. TopGunn#22
    This is the classic addition by subtraction move. The question is, who in the heck would have any interest in Margot? When Lewis gets here there will need to be a move made. The move to keep Farmer is looking worse and worse each day as well. A LOT of salary squandered on those two (not to mention the $10 million for Vasquez). I was surprised Farmer was retained due to Brooks Lee lurking. Then Lee got hurt and it made sense...for about 5 games. Farmer's struggles at the plate really exposed the folly of bringing him back for $6+ Million. I wasn't a fan of the Margot trade from the get go. Yes, Margot has been terrible, but I didn't like giving up a Platinum Gold Glove SS in the deal either.
  17. TopGunn#22
    We seen this before from Ryan, as USAFChief pointed out. The key for Ryan is to avoid the 10-game stretch where he gives up 3 HR's a game. Historically, he just hasn't been able to sustain what he's showed over last year's first half and now this this year. Don't get me wrong, I'll take what he's done so far. But with Pablo struggling mightily, Joe needs to put an entire season like this together. I'm also worried about SWR and regression. He's been rock solid so far. Much better than the Twins actually hoped. And Paddack has been better than what I think the Twins were realistically expecting. We are falling further behind Cleveland and the Royals, even with this "bonus juice" from the #4 & #5 spots in the rotation. I wonder if the Twins would consider making a move for Jesus Luzardo if the price was right. I expect the Marlins to be having a garage sale, possibly even a little before the actual trade deadline. There is always Festa to consider as well, but I wonder when arms like Paddack and Varland start getting consideration for a bullpen move.
  18. TopGunn#22
    I've got to bring this up. We've discussed this at times over the last couple of years. But what is Watkins thinking sending Vasquez and then Santana on consecutive games and getting them thrown out at the plate by 20+ feet for out #3??? Kirilloff's blasts cover over the inexcusable decisions Watkins is making. I can see sending Buxton, but Vasquez?? Zeke Duran has an absolute CANNON and his throw to the plate from LF gave Santana no chance whatsoever to score from 2B on a single to LF. "MAYBE" you send Santana if Jankowski is playing LF for the Rangers. I just can't forgive Watkins for thinking Santana had ANY chance of beating a throw from Duran. Both of these boneheaded decisions from Watkins came in close games and were crushingly BAD outcomes. Kirilloff comes to the rescue in both games, but this is something Watkins is guilty of fairly consistently.
  19. TopGunn#22
    Should have mentioned Austin martin as part of the OF mix as well.
  20. TopGunn#22
    Hopefully Byron Buxton remains healthy and has a good year for the Twins. We need it. But if the inevitable injury happens and Byron is on the shelf for longer than 10-14 days, it may be time to finally promote Keirsey. If that happens, the time would be right to promote E-Rod from AA to St. Paul. I think E-Rod's play has already merited heavy consideration for promotion. But a corresponding promotion is needed to open a spot for him. Maybe the Twins should have packaged Wallner in a trade for a bona-fide SP this winter but it's cheating to look at this through that kind of hindsight. Wallner still remains a viable power hitting/cannon armed corner outfield prospect for the Twins. But there is a big crowd of present and future Twins jostling for OF positions: Buxton, Larnach, Kirilloff, Castro (LF), E-Rod, Wallner, Keirsey, Jenkins, not to mention Max Kepler. Is he gone at the trade deadline? Not until the completion of this season? What if Max continues to be the best OF the Twins have? Will we still send him away or let him walk? The good news is that we're not looking at some of the dregs we have in the past to play OF. The not so good news is that some decisions need to made in the not too distant future, certainly within 2 years. Who stays and who goes?
  21. TopGunn#22
    Margot was a mistake. Admit it and move on. Keirsey could help the Twins, especially if Buxton goes down. What are the odds of that happening? (think about this for a moment--how long do you expect Buxton to "be healthy)?" Promoting Keirsey to the Twins and E-Rod to St. Paul doesn't "reek of desperation." It promotes a player who could help the big club if given a specific role and moves a player tearing up AA to AAA. I think it's a normal and logical progression. Speaking of non-desperation, Lewis will be coming back in the not too distant future and Brooks Lee will be moving Kyle Farmer out of a roster spot within a month and a half. Margot should just be DFA'd. Maybe they can get something for Farmer in a trade.
  22. TopGunn#22
    It's tough to judge when 2 out of the 3 have been injured for the entire season so far. However, Jenkins is still clearly the #1 guy. The realistic expectation of him, once he gets on the field, is that he will continue to rake and continue to impress all the way to finishing this season in AA. Lee's herniated disc worries me, but if Julien continues to struggle and certainly if Farmer continues to disappoint, Lee will be with the Twins within a month and he'll stick. The only guy actually playing in this comparison is E-Rod. Please stop with "Emma" guys. You write that and the image I get is of Gwyneth Paltrow, NOT Emmanuel Rodriguez!! I don't yearn to see Gwyneth roaming in CF and crushing tape measure HR's. (if there is a sarcasm font, I couldn't find it). In all seriousness, it's probably time to promote E-Rod to St. Paul and see how it goes. He and Kiersey can split time in CF and the corners to prepare either, or both, for an eventual call-up.
  23. TopGunn#22
    I agree with your concern Alex. He's certainly not throwing as hard as he did last year. At his current age though, I don't think that matters at all. When you can throw 99-100 mph that's still pretty impressive. Not as impressive as 103-104 mph but that's still a LOT to work with. The more concerning thing to me is not velocity, but command and confidence. There are clearly pitches he doesn't seem to have the confidence in, or the command of, to throw, regardless of the count. His "splinker" was hammered yesterday by Meneses and before that it was his curve or slider (whatever Duran is calling it). I also think that Duran is frustrated by the way Rocco is using him. To me, it seems like Duran wants to CLOSE games and is miffed at being called on in the 7th or 8th inning to get "meat of the order" hitters out in a non-save situation. I just don't understand how a guy like Jax can come in, throw 6 pitches in the 7th and then be sent to the showers rather than coming out and taking the 8th inning. Six pitches is barely an appearance. After a guy has warmed up and only needs a handful of pitches to finish an inning I think it makes more sense to send him out there again. This is one of my bigger gripes with "analytics."
  24. TopGunn#22
    I sense a growing frustration from Twins fans with the current FO as well as the manager. The frustrations with our ownership have been well chronicled. It's well past time for the Margot failure to be admitted to and moved on from. Kiersey would be an excellent addition as a LH bat to give Buxton a day off to DH as well as provide speed off the bench late in games. Emmanuel Rodriguez continues to rake in AA. It should only be a matter of time before Royce Lewis makes it back. If Julien keeps taking called third strikes it may only be a matter of time before Brooks Lee gets a chance and Julien goes to St. Paul to find his stroke and his eye. I am impressed with the defensive improvement of Julien, but he is really disappointing at the plate thus far. Alex Kirilloff confounds me. The swing looks great, but you just can't keep fouling pitches off that you should be hammering. I'm starting to wonder if I was far too optimistic with him. Miranda is swinging better this year, but he's a future DH, which means he really doesn't have a future with the Twins. I had all but given up on Larnach and he looks like a different hitter than the last two years so far. Just play Kepler. He's been a regular in the past, stop wasting AB's with Margot. How the Twins can win 12 in a row and 17 of 21 and then go on a (at this point) 7 game losing streak in which they are barely competitive is a mystery wrapped in an enigma. After a frugal off season in which the paltry moves the Twins made are starting to look, well, paltry, I think attendance is going to take a big hit this year. And with just a one-year deal with Balley, what will be the Twins media status and revenue outlook for 2025??
  25. TopGunn#22
    I will. But the season is still young. Santana has really given the Twins a lift during the last couple of weeks. Margot on the other hand is worthless (even after his 3-run double). The sooner they move on from Margot, the better.
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