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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Beckham had played a little LF for Seattle a season or three ago. Not a lot, but surely he's had reps out there in practice over the years. They had given him the opportunity to be a utility guy in St Paul this season and while he didn't appear in a game there in the OF, maybe they gave him drills out there. Anyway, an unanticipated substitution but not total desperation, and a logical choice given the circumstances and options at hand.
  2. ashbury
  3. ashbury
    Terry Ryan was gone in mid-July, the last time housecleaning occurred at the top. We've missed the deadline.
  4. ashbury
    He did drop for a reason, and I don't know that his bonus expectation entirely accounts for it. Past the (early) first round, no draft picks should be viewed as sure things, and we kind of are treating Prielipp that way. Our FO took him as a high-upside candidate, but one of those in the second round means his floor is totally zero.
  5. ashbury
    Yeah, those darn Analytics types and their fancy ERAs and propeller beanies and what not. OPS-against, and the dreaded WPA, might be what your are yearning for, though.
  6. ashbury
    I just learned a new phrase, "broke on the draw." Except, I don't know what it means. Google was surprisingly unhelpful, if it's a card playing or horse racing idiom like I was expecting. Just tie-breaker? FWIW the phrase showed up a bunch of times, as news aggregators relayed your TD article already.
  7. ashbury
    I don't quite understand the seeming certainty that we know where the bottom exactly is or will become.
  8. ashbury
    Which recent firings do you recall where a deadline deal was the issue?
  9. ashbury
    Whatever happened to Mike Wants Wins? It's like I don't even know that guy anymore.
  10. ashbury
    No disagreement really. I expect that there are several in the TD readership who have had reason to think carefully about aspects of data visualization during their education or careers. Some cleaning of data is often called for. I hope you'll still give some thought to the underlying issue I raised, though. Kirilloff's season numbers show a slightly below average OPS, but his chart fails to give any indication of why that might be. Even though the omitted data is a small sample, it was so poor that it accounts for the difference. Maybe having the lower cutoff of the y-axis be .000 instead of something around .300 is all that's needed. A thick line to represent sufficient amount of data for a trend line, a thinner line to represent less sufficiency. Those kinds of tactics.
  11. ashbury
    I wouldn't go by a recipe, but there does seem food for thought there. There's always the danger of small sample size. Also, past the first couple of innings, you have to guard against a certain kind of bias in the data: if a pitcher is simply having a bad game, it may affect the innings he is in, but won't affect the innings after he's taken out. So those later innings tend to carry an assumption that he's been doing reasonably well up to any given point. A better statistician than I might have some tools to correct for that, I don't know.
  12. ashbury

    75 RBI or 75 RBIs?

    ashbury commented on Greglw3's blog entry in Greg Allen

    It is a joke. "Like two ships passing in the night." The way we classy people say "one night stand." Thanks for the grammar refresher though - it had been quite a while since Squirrel reminded us.
  13. ashbury

    75 RBI or 75 RBIs?

    ashbury commented on Greglw3's blog entry in Greg Allen

    Except when it's two sheeps passing in the night.
  14. ashbury

    75 RBI or 75 RBIs?

    ashbury commented on Greglw3's blog entry in Greg Allen

    MsPH.
  15. ashbury
    Jose Miranda, not especially highly regarded for his defense at 3B, was committing errors at a much lower rate than CES at a similar age. As always, my caveat is that errors are one of the less important ways to judge a defender but I don't have an eye-test to go by and beyond a certain number a high error rate holds some meaning, plus the scouting reports I do see are not complimentary. Maybe his bat turns into the next coming of Nelson Cruz, but anything less and CES is another bat that profiles for 1B/DH, which is worth something but hardly the franchise's crown jewel.
  16. ashbury
    You'll find mine in the game thread yesterday. Buxton and Correa both came up big in a game the Twins no doubt very much wanted to win.
  17. ashbury
    Don't sell Tyler short - I'm not sure if we've seen his very best.
  18. ashbury
    I want to like your take, I really do. But, if you look at these two pitchers, inning by inning... https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=musgrjo01&year=2022&t=p#all_innng https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=grayso01&year=2022&t=p#all_innng ... it is uncanny that Joe has been good this season for exactly one inning further into games than Sonny has. Our field staff knows something about their own players? That's unpossible!
  19. ashbury
  20. ashbury
    I forget the site, but there is one that lets you guesstimate whether a fly would be a home run in other ballparks. San Diego is a pitcher's park, I believe. Maybe it would have been more out of reach, not less, in most other parks? I don't know.
  21. ashbury
    Sound. League rules don't permit trading draftees until after the World Series.
  22. ashbury
    Every time Jorge is at bat and they show a closeup, it's the eyes that get me. Laser beams, all the time. He doesn't get a hit every time up, but it's never ever from lack of focus.
  23. ashbury
    I liked the interview questions in the post-game video of Rocco. Direct, and hardly softball questions, that spoke to real concerns, without being some reporter trying to establish some kind of hard-hitting BS reputation through cheap antagonistic antics. The answers didn't wow me, but then Rocco is a master of (baseball) corporate-speak. My own style in serious matters is corporate-speak too, so I don't really fault him, except that his on-field results aren't there. I don't know if a Billy Martin type of replacement would have better results over the long term, because my suspicion is that better results would have to come from a level higher in the corporate food-chain than Rocco himself. A stronger bullpen would have changed a lot in the past weeks, though obviously the bullpen can't win a game like this one. It would make 4-inning stints from Archer or Bundy more feasible. But conversely, it would address the problem last night of leaving in a guy having a bad outing, like we hope is all it was with Ryan, versus giving him a quick exit. Rocco spoke of not closing out the other team when there were two outs. Over the course of the season, the pitching staff overall has been OK with this situation. But I'd like to hear him address the converse problem, shown by his offense in 2022, because when I looked a few days ago, their own two-out splits showed a lot more dropoff than the MLB norm.
  24. ashbury
    Thanks. 13-9 if my manual count at milb.com is accurate. Good times.
  25. ashbury
    I have a feeling that the headline* someone at MLBTR chose, Twins Among Most Aggressive Buyers On Pitching Market, is going to look pretty dumb in the rear-view mirror in a few more days. * The article itself is titled something else, but the blurb placed in the team-digest for all three AL Central contenders had this form.
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