I think those explanations are in sync with the concept of "risk".
I'm coming around more to the idea that bonus demands played a role. And the two issues are hardly exclusive. Going over-slot on a player deemed to carry higher risk than average turned off the bean-counters perhaps at those other teams. Modern analytics boils down to risk-reward. Our FO shows over and over that they consider injury risk to be somewhat manageable, more so than most other teams, so they'll compute risk-reward differently. I hope they're right, because it's perhaps my biggest disagreement with them.
Or, maybe, #48 was about the right spot for Prielipp's risk-reward, and some other team was about to take him too, and our Twins wouldn't have touched him at (say) #35 either..