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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Meet the new 13th man. Same as the old 13th man.
  2. ashbury
    You think your scouting is better than any of the 29 other teams' eyes? They "see" what you see. Buxton would not bring back any kind of haul of prospects. His contract is appropriately priced for his combination of performance and risk. You might find teams willing to take on the contract, but not for any significant value on top of that.
  3. ashbury
    It's a good thing Jackson made it through waivers unclaimed. Otherwise, where would the Twins have found another third-string catcher to replace Austin Martin???
  4. ashbury
    Seems like the least controversial statement of the day. We just saw him brought to the majors to replace an injured corner outfielder.
  5. ashbury
    This aged well. 🙂 Austin Martin to the IL, so whom do they bring up to take that spot on the 26-man? Why, Alex Jackson of course, thus filling the 40-man slot he just vacated. You can't make this stuff up.
  6. ashbury
    He has the choice to throw away about $150,000 of guaranteed money if another team puts him on their major league roster at MLB minimum; more like $300,000 if all he can garner is someone else's minor league contract for the rest of 2026. Or, he can go to St Paul and watch the $300K get direct-deposited in his bank account through the end of September. How many long, sleepless nights will he lose while making this difficult decision?
  7. ashbury
    Josh Bell: .735 OPS. Luke Keaschall: .734 OPS. Lefty/righty, Bell is .730/.737 Lefty/righty, Keaschall is .733/.735. Neither player can help you win games with the glove and they'll hurt you if you let them try. One of these players is redundant at DH. For me it's the guy earning $5.75M, plus the $1.25M buyout to not let him exercise his option for next year.
  8. ashbury
    Entering the post-season at a 100-win pace would be the ideal momentum.
  9. ashbury
    He wasn't one of the catchers anyone made a tempting offer on. That should tell us something.
  10. ashbury
    If teams thought that were true, then the world would be a very different place. They would bring up every prospect to see what they have. Funny how, when a team promotes a player, it's usually someone with good AAA stats. Minor league stats have predictive power. So do a major leaguer's previous year stats. Neither one provides absolute certainty; either will provide a pretty good guide much of the time. Sometimes you get a Manny Margot whose major league numbers at the plate are remarkably consistent and then suddenly fall off a cliff when the Twins trade for him at the ripe old age of 29. Playing in the majors didn't let the Twins FO judge how well he would do.
  11. ashbury
    Crud, I failed to keep scrolling all the way down, and now I can't delete.
  12. ashbury
    It's only sporting. The roster rules are there to keep juggernauts like the Twins from hogging up all the good players.
  13. ashbury
    Nobody saw Jackson. He never took the field. 🙂
  14. ashbury
    After Joshua Báez's major league debut, his OPS stands at 3.750, and it can only go up: imagine how good he will be when he isn't mired in bad luck, with a BABIP currently .000.
  15. ashbury
    Sure. I was just responding to a post speculating it was just one guy.
  16. ashbury
    Wait, this was a lefty? Why didn't the Twins just forfeit? Did they think 9-1 really would be that much more valuable than 9-0?
  17. ashbury
    The trouble is when you end up with a 26-man roster chock full of professional #7 hitters and what-me-worry #4 starters. 😄
  18. ashbury
    Fear not. We only need a .658 winning percentage the rest of the way to reach 85 wins and put us right back in the chase for the division crown!
  19. ashbury
    Welp.
  20. ashbury
    I thought I stated, but it was across 20 years. Trying to rule out small sample sizes, and thereby derive some kind of big-picture about the behavior of the respective markets, but of course the details of season-to-season matter too. I suppose that's why consulting firms rake in the big bucks.
  21. ashbury
    Thought that was Mikey?
  22. ashbury
    5 strikeouts by Twins batters already? Jesús.
  23. ashbury
    Was that your takeaway from the conversations back then? Outs are bad. If you strikeout more than the next guy on the roster, and if you don't hit a lot of balls out of the park or walk a lot, and if you don't have some kind of special BABIP sauce (a few players do) relative to the league, then the strikeouts put you at an immediate disadvantage. Outs are bad.
  24. ashbury
    Interestingly, with Coors players the home-road splits, looking at OPS (-against, for pitchers) combined with BABIP tell a similar tale. xFIP throws away data. I prefer to interpret data.
  25. ashbury
    It's possible, just faintly possible, that it's some guy you never heard of and who never played competitively since T-ball. And if that turned out to be true it would really chap some people's hides. 😄
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