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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    You might be surprised. The rule of thumb, given modern run-scoring numbers, is that scoring 10 additional runs during a season, or equivalently saving 10 runs on defense, adds about 1 win. As you note, those runs aren't all going to occur just when you need them, thus the high ratio of extra runs to winning outcomes. The OP spoke of 18 missing runs, so that could be good for a couple of extra wins so far this season, in that light.
  2. ashbury
    The pros are going to be a whole new experience, based on his comment about "feel" versus video. I'm sure he'll adapt to that though.
  3. ashbury
    Comparing team situational splits to the full MLB, it looks like they do relatively worse with 2 outs, regardless of the on-base situation. Been kind of a 3 year trend. The 2019 Bomba Squad didn't really show a similar dropoff. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2022#all_outs https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2022#all_outs
  4. ashbury
    "Oh, hai. We gots a closer to trade. We can has your #2 prospect for him? 'Kthxbye."
  5. ashbury
    Quigley's a major league puzzle constructor. Kudos on being on his radar, Luis!
  6. ashbury

    75 RBI or 75 RBIs?

    ashbury commented on Greglw3's blog entry in Greg Allen

    Concur. The R stands for what it needs to stand for in the given situation. Just as CDC used to stand for Control Data Corporation or Centers for Disease Control, depending on the need of the sentence.
  7. ashbury
    Bless my heart, I tried, but you excelled.
  8. ashbury
    "Bless their hearts," she said in her thick southern accent. "They try."
  9. ashbury
    Chad Kuhl has had a mediocre career. His ERA+ this one season looks good since it contains a Coors lift - except, his splits are the opposite of what many pitchers show, as he's done better in Coors than on the road. His road numbers look similar at a glance to his career numbers before joining the Rockies. Pass, unless the Twins need more depth to get them through the regular season at minimal cost, for some reason. He might not be given a post-season start, were they to reach that stage.
  10. ashbury
    I think the injury report is trying to hint that Max is one of those rare individuals with six toes per foot.
  11. ashbury
    On a phone screen it's difficult to remember whether the topic is MVP candidates, or trade chips for an ace.
  12. ashbury
    O, kay.
  13. ashbury
    I believe the strategy is that, with fewer than two out, base runners are the danger, while with two out and the bases empty, it is power that threatens a scoring event. I think it is typical to see more nibbling at the strike zone with two out.
  14. ashbury
    Sorry. On second reading, you said "than." I read "then." Never mind.
  15. ashbury
    I believe his partial no-trade becomes full after the World Series. Boras thought of that.
  16. ashbury
    "I just enjoyed my first All-Star game." LOL. To quote Dizzy Dean, it ain't braggin' if you can back it up. I hope Luis does!
  17. ashbury
    To the Twins clubhouse. You seemed to know the mood in there.
  18. ashbury
    You've been invited in as a guest? Where do you get this hot take?
  19. ashbury
    You won't get much for him in trade. The three-year aspect of his contract, in case he gets hurt, assures that. And if he doesn't get hurt, he's a short-term rental like any expiring contract. It's the worse of both worlds from the perspective of the acquiring team. They would treat it as close to a salary dump, and offer one middling prospect in exchange. The only reason another team offers anything at all is 1) he does bring value to a team during the post-season, and 2) the Twins will have borne the brunt of the contract risk already during the first two-thirds of the season. All in all Correa's potential to contribute to the remainder of the Twins' season, including an unlikely post-season run, is worth more than some other team's Keoni Cavaco.
  20. ashbury
    Yeah, I laugh every time I look at that. Apparently the photographers at MLB are sworn to never use Photoshop to fix even an unlucky choice of attire versus background.
  21. ashbury
    For sure there has to be a good arm in the package. Read again if you thought I said otherwise. 99% of trade offers are ones you should turn down. By no means am I saying it's easy. But other teams are playing hardball, we have to too. Pitching is the coin of the realm and you can't spend yours like it's payday. And major deals do get made with prospect packages that are a mixture of an arm plus some bats. Patience is required, and that means to come away with no deal if necessary.
  22. ashbury
    Concur. The ideal such trade structure will be founded on a pitching prospect, in return for the established veteran we hope he becomes. That of course requires additional prospects, to make the simple swap at all appealing to the other team, and needs to be from our surplus stock of 2B and corner bats. Preferably not a second top arm. Not easy to pull off, but needs to be the goal. An acceptable deal will feel like an overpay, and maybe to that trade value website too, but that is the nature of getting established pitching. If it can't be done, say because the other team wants young arms and lots of them, then the answer has to be no. Other teams hold on tightly to their young pitching, we have to too.
  23. ashbury
    The Twins are in the bottom half of the majors in attendance, and you want to give the fans a slap in the face with a move that will be cast as "typical cheap Pohlads, hur dur, hur dur" on call-in shows?
  24. ashbury
    Source?
  25. ashbury
    They might get a busy signal because the Reds simultaneously picked up the phone to try to call the Twins. "Thad? Oh, sorry, it rolled over to you, Derek! Hey, never mind, cutting to the chase, did you read the Athletic just now...?" Because that's how this all works in our modern age.
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