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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Sometimes I don't think you take this site seriously enough. Other times, though, I do.
  2. ashbury
    "I often quote myself; it adds spice to my conversation. " -- G. B. Shaw "A wise man once said, listen to wise men like me." -- me
  3. ashbury
  4. ashbury
    I think your conclusion is sound. A couple of caveats. You talked only of Run Expectancy values, but went on to note that a big inning isn't actually needed in that situation. RE is what's better known, but folks like Tom Tango also have developed a similar but more pertinent concept of Run Probability, which you alluded to. The old adage "play for the win on the road, play for the tie at home" applies, and the table seen in this link suggests that (if bunting is correctly executed 100% of the time) the chance of scoring at all goes up from .7655 to .7826. https://jackbanks.web.illinois.edu/2021/09/19/expedition-league-run-expectancy-matrix/ , without resorting to handwaving about multiple runs. A small edge but that's what players and managers should be looking for. On the other hand, such tables are generally built on overall experience, but "top of the order coming up, bottom of the ninth, one-run game" seems like a special case that could upend generalities. Splitting things by situation sometimes runs the risk of small sample size, but not in this case as I expect it's frequent enough over the years, and I bet such breakdowns exist, but I haven't the faintest idea where to look. It's rare times like this that I wish I had made the acquaintance of Tango. Okay, a third caveat, I don't know if those tables can be further broken down to cases where the next guy at the plate is a low-strikeout guy, but Arraez is such an outlier in today's game that I have to imagine his 7.5% K rate could nudge the close decision. Look at it the other way, a big strikeout guy seems like someone you'd prefer to have bunt (if he's good at it) to make sure his out is productive. But I'd want to see statistical evidence about that. Bottom line, the standard tables are only the starting point. Anyway. Yeah. Bunt. Probably. Maybe. Yeah.
  5. ashbury
    I can't not disagree with nothing in this post. Not! (Not.) / PS, writing on deadline is hard
  6. ashbury
    If we're going to rank signature pitches, for me it comes down to results and (secondarily) longevity. Close between Santana's change and Blyleven's uncle (Charlie). Duran's in the running someday if he keeps going for years and years like Mariano and his renowned cutter.
  7. ashbury
    It's a damning list, and yet I can't help thinking it's statistically misleading. 74% or even 95% isn't 100%, and we're seeing only one side of the coin - the cases where the game actually turned out to be a loss. How many 74% chances (in inning X) turned into 100% by game's end? Three out of four, by coincidence? Another way to ask is, did this person construct a chart for all the other teams, using the same methodology, so as to see how the Twins stack up by this way of looking. On the other hand, I manually spot checked another team, a good one (the Dodgers), for 20 or so of their losses, and didn't spot much of anything similar. The Twitter Guy is surely onto something. I'd just like to see something I thought was a little bit more sound, is all. Grumble grumble.
  8. ashbury
    Lopez didn't blow the save, since he didn't inherit a lead. The honor goes to Thielbar. Not that it matters. A run in a tight game is a run, and Lopez's decided the outcome. Justice is served by the L attached to his name in the box score.
  9. ashbury
    Deserves its own thread, dontcha think? I'll go ahead and steal your introduction and start one up.
  10. ashbury
    4. He's not the first guy named Billy Hamilton with a legendary rep for stealing bases. In theory it's great that they brought in a certified Hall of Famer for the stretch run. Still, it smacks of desperation to have chosen one like Sliding BIlly who died in 1940. / I bet this Billy Hamilton never gets tired of that joke
  11. ashbury
    Well played.
  12. ashbury
    The ball Gordon hit looked like a textbook triple once it hit the right field wall and evaded the defender. Shame on Nick for not going all out and cashing it in.
  13. ashbury
    5? For the season, we have used 8 left fielders in one way or another. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2022-fielding.shtml#all_players_standard_fielding_lf By contrast the Yankees have used only eight all year and the Dodgers a mere nine. We have it rough.
  14. ashbury
    What Can Billy Hamilton Provide the Twins? Outs. On defense, at the plate. Outs.
  15. ashbury
    and Megill... and Duffey and others no longer on the roster...
  16. ashbury
    So many clean innings from the bullpen!
  17. ashbury
    Randy "The Vulture" Dobnak!
  18. ashbury
    Dear Giants Fans: Ha ha, you're now the Royals.
  19. ashbury
    Someone forgot to phrase the headline in the form of a question. I'm still going to stick my neck out and answer, 'no.'
  20. ashbury
  21. ashbury
    Archer to the pen, only if he's used to face the bottom of the batting order. This year leadoff men have a 1.040 OPS against him, and cleanup guys are 1.157. Batters 6-9 are collectively about .500.
  22. ashbury
    The four guys on the bench also impressed me, by staying seated.
  23. ashbury
    Am I just engaging in selective memory or are we back to wins being very difficult for our farm teams to come by?
  24. ashbury
    As has pretty much every batter that pitcher's faced this season.
  25. ashbury
    Not really. Not mainly. Here is the list of the top 8 players for plate appearances, this year at St Paul: Jermaine Palacios Jake Cave Mark Contreras Curtis Terry Michael Helman Elliot Soto Caleb Hamilton Spencer Steer Cave and Soto fit your description. The other six are in their age-27 season or younger, and the Twins are (or were, in a couple of cases) trying to see what if any value they may be capable of giving the big club. Three have been called up, one was a trade chip. Players like Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, have seen significant time there too, only their performance was such that they did get called up and stuck (except for injury).
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