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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Henriquez got taken deep in his first inning of work last Thursday, by Brent Rooker. So much for "better as of late" Not an option in 2022, in my book. Ditto for Strotman, and he isn't even young anymore and should be offseason trade/dfa fodder. "Moran, then Sisk, after that you're taking a risk."
  2. ashbury
    And probably for the last.
  3. ashbury
    Back when his batting average topped out at .359, his BA on balls in play was an unsustainable .479 (league average normally around .300). During the cold stretch you mentioned, BABIP has been .240. Getting the bat on the ball and putting it in play is definitely a skill, but the knack for dropping base hits at will when putting the ball in play isn't, or at least few have demonstrated it over the long haul; I don't like the word luck, but let's just say neither trend away from .300 is generally sustainable. He's neither as good as he seemed during his hot stretch, nor as bad as he seems now. Overall he's a work in progress and is marginal as a major league contributor today, but he's still only 23 and stands to improve in seasons to come if we are patient. His up-the-middle skills mean patience is called for.
  4. ashbury
    Just like the image below, my post aged so very, very well.
  5. ashbury
    I pointed out when he was called up that Beckham's "hot bat" was built on the foundation of a .522 (!!) batting average on balls in play, Now in the majors, the BABIP is a below-normal .222. Odds are that his traditional numbers with the Twins may come up a little from where they are now, but there's no way his numbers with the Saints were anything but an unsustainable mirage. (With no definable defensive skills anymore, he's no longer a major league player, but there was a roster need. But I digress.) So yeah, the opponent should go right after a bat like his, in that situation.
  6. ashbury
    Arraez is another who could be included in someone's Not Hot list. OPS of .522 in 77 PA since July 10 (cherry picking) though he doesn't meet your July 1 threshold. Correa is obviously a disappointment lately, and I always figured Sanchez would at least hit if not defend.
  7. ashbury
    Twitter, Instagram and/or Facebook.... do you also do LinkedIn? But, slightly more seriously, if maybe irrelevantly: when you do a screenshot, like I see for Tyler Duffey, do you give credit to baseball-reference.com, which is where it looks like it came from?
  8. ashbury
    Not to mention, unsupported by facts. His lifetime OPS on the road is .817, versus .846 at home - not a big split at all since the average batter does better at home. All but this season was as an Astro, but this year as a Twin his home-road split is even larger, .839-.724. You can look up the individual seasons when the scandal was in operation, and if anything his road numbers were better than at home those two years. So, is there more can-banging actually going on at Target Field? But, hey, don't let facts get in the way of a comfortable narrative.
  9. ashbury
    It can be said that Cave taking second through defensive indifference didn't matter since his run wouldn't be decisive, but maybe it was that little thing that put the contact play on? At that point it was a much lower risk play, since an out at the plate just results in a new and decent runner at third with still fewer than two out. I like it, and maybe the Jays should have been a little less indifferent with 0 out.
  10. ashbury
    Probably better if I'd said "never had secure possession," the criterion for making the putout. He wheeled around for the tag, as though he thought he did. Jansen apparently is a sound defensive catcher, who had a rough tenth inning that you don't really wish on anyone except to the degree you need it for the win. Happy for the win, and it's very often sound strategy to push the opponent into having to make a perfect play. Especially when the downside risk is only an out at home but a runner replacing him at third and still only one out. In retrospect that "defensive indifference" letting Cave take second may have tilted the odds on Gordon making the break for home, though someone would have to ask him because it's probably just instinct and experience.
  11. ashbury
    No disagreement there. I guess my point is that whatever the rules are, it's the pitcher's job to stop any runs from scoring. The extra inning rule makes it harder, but some pitchers do the job better than others. So I want some stats that tell me who's who, over the course of the long season. ERA becomes useless too - reliever in the bottom of the tenth gives up a leadoff single, the runner on second scores in some routine way, boom, game over. Reliever strikes out two, give up that single, game over. Reliever does a little better, his team lives to fight another inning. OPS-against probably does the job, maybe OBP is even more pertinent, but I want it extra-innings only.
  12. ashbury
    It already is. That runner is treated for scorecard purposes like some sort of weird two-base catcher's interference. So, there are a lot of losses pinned on pitchers who gave up zero earned runs.
  13. ashbury
    Exactly. That's the key thing about the contract the Twins offered him: a $70M guarantee beyond the first season, in case he's catastrophically injured this year, but with the opportunity to negotiate a better deal, in case he's not. But the calculation changes after each of the first two seasons. So, this coming off-season, assuming he reaches it in full health, now his decision becomes to accept another $35M payday for 2023, but with only a $35M guarantee beyond that season, in case he's catastrophically injured. That is less of an inducement to stay. Almost anyone will offer a better guaranteed total contract value than that. Maybe this past off-season he had visions of a $300M megacontract (which proved non-existent for him), but Boras will assist him in looking realistically at the potential market if he opts out for 2023, and if it's (say) only $200M after a non-All Star 2022, it is what it is. Boras might also forecast that a 2023 similar to 2022 could reduce the expected contract to only $100M, a year hence - in which case he'd better grab whatever $200M contract is offered. Boras is portrayed by many as some sort of charlatan, but to me he's nothing but a pragmatist. So Correa's chances of opting in are not greatly improved by 2022 being not among his best seasons (and we still have many weeks to play, before that is determined). Only something really dire would make him see staying as the smart choice. Something dire, or the Twins offering something nice of course.
  14. ashbury
    I'm not against the man-on-second rule in extra innings, but MLB needs to figure out a way to segregate the extra innings stats from the regular stats, or at least for the pitchers. Under regular rules a pitcher can get a screwy loss (or win), but oddities a little less weird than this come up all the time, it seems.
  15. ashbury
    If Jansen comes up with the ball cleanly, and you can tell he thought he had from the way he continued the play, Gordon is out by a step (or however you measure it when he's sliding). Chapman's throw wasn't perfect, arriving on a short hop it looks like, but that play gets made more times than not. Nice sweep of the plate with his oven mitt by Gordon, but that was after the drop. As for Rocco's lack of emotiveness on the HR photo, he and one of his coaches he was conferring with about something might have been the only ones in the dugout with something better to do than spectate. As for the top of the tenth, Fulmer's strikeout of the leadoff batter was key. And kudos to Contreras in center for being enough of a threat that they didn't send the runner, because I thought the book on him was to test his arm any chance you get.
  16. ashbury
    I guess so. He didn't look like much when I saw him at AAA that one time. But I guess that's why they pay scouts to look a second or third time*. * And to have better knowledge
  17. ashbury
    Gordon for me has been the surprise of the season. I didn't think he had it in him. But he's a major leaguer.
  18. ashbury
    Chances are that no amount of rest will keep it from flaring up just as soon as he puts the knee under any stress. I am guessing off-season surgery is the plan.
  19. ashbury
    Ever been to the back fields? Opportunity for Total Fan Geek Out Mode like that is a lot of fun.
  20. ashbury
    Schobel has an OPS of 0.000000000, rounded off. So that's another high pick we'd like to have back.
  21. ashbury
    They miss Harmon Killebrew in his prime.
  22. ashbury
    Not TJ, apparently, so the recovery time will be shorter. But not far off.
  23. ashbury
    Once we had a prospect, and it was a gas Soon turned out, he had a wrist of glass Seemed like the real thing, only to find Mucho mistrust, power's gone behind
  24. ashbury
    29 other teams are doing it wrong too. #fireroccoanyway
  25. ashbury
    Going to hazard a guess that Chief is more sure of his words than he's letting on.
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