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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I'd like to see a catcher with a high pick - just not our very highest at #8. That's a problem with not taking a pitcher with your top pick - you then feel it necessary to load up with multiple higher-risk pitchers in the early rounds, and here in this mock we don't take a catcher until round 5 where the book on him is "a chance to stick at catcher". Ugh, no. I like how Rortvedt and Jeffers have played out so far, even if 2022 hasn't proven what I feel to be their eventual value - and I'd like a similar pick this year with our second or third pick. I do want pitching of course - and I'd settle for not choosing a top OF prospect, in return. Cross in particular looks like could turn out to be a tweener, never quite comfortably fitting into a starting role in CF and then everything depends on his bat as a corner OF. Of course, I don't know who would be a good pitcher to take at #8, since all the draft prognosticators find warts on them all. If our FO agrees that no pitcher merits consideration at #8, I'm fine with that, especially if one of the top 7 drops - but I hope they can buck the conventional wisdom. As someone said elsewhere, there should be someone who turns out to have a good pitching career in this draft, and at #8 it looks like our FO will have their pick of everyone - so, show us your evaluation chops, and find that guy!
  2. ashbury
    Is that Sisk on the mound? His motion looks like a balk move toward first base - except I don't think there's a baserunner there.
  3. ashbury
    Oh, and:
  4. ashbury
    I want to like the guy but he makes it so dang hard. And if his throwing heroics would not have been necessary if not for the drop, then I'm reluctant to give him full credit. "He can beat you in so many ways... after he tries his best to beat himself."
  5. ashbury
    There's a reason Gilberto is plying his trade across the river from Jake.
  6. ashbury
    Montas has shown his mettle this season by pitching well in 4 games against possible playoff opponents, Yankees, Rays, and Astros. Weirdly, the Indians have cuffed him around in the two games he pitched against them. It's just worrisome that he had some arm pain recently. Given their recent experience when they traded for Paddack, I hope our FO properly interprets whatever medicals they are given.
  7. ashbury
    The weakest hitters on our current major league squad are just barely below league average, and none except maybe Miranda when he's at third seems like an absolute butcher on defense. So whoever sits for a given game is a capable substitute if the need arises. That relatively high "floor" does seem like an underappreciated asset.
  8. ashbury
    I don't disagree, but you named 3 corner guys whose value is in their potentially big bats. CF, at least IMO, has to be considered as (nearly as) separate a category as starting pitching.
  9. ashbury
    I'd part with Gordon far quicker than with Celestino, if that's the question. The latter is young, while the former really isn't anymore and his SS skills are below par and thus not a factor in my thinking. My only perplexity is that Celestino hasn't displayed the home run power that seemed to be emerging for him in the minors in 2019-21. But he's still only 23 and I'm betting we haven't seen his "career year" yet. We might well be witnessing Gordon's career year right now. OTOH it appears that the Twins no longer consider Kepler as anything more than emergency use in CF, while Cave and Contreras at AAA merely are marginal candidates. So I challenge the notion that we have an oversupply in CF. As with catcher this past off-season before the trades, I think 3 is actually about the right number to have on hand, with at least one possessing minor league options. If there's actually an oversupply, shall we package Cave and Contreras for that relief help? No takers from other teams? So much for an oversupply.
  10. ashbury
    True. OTOH many denizens of the 'pen are there because management has decided, "we're going to cut down your workload from your starter days, just go out there one inning at a time and bear down on every pitch." So I have a little less patience with a reliever who regularly catches too much of the heart of the plate. (That hanger Josh Hader served up to Miranda the other day is an example of what the top relievers do really, really infrequently.) Ditto for relievers who walk a lot of batters, in the name of avoiding those fat pitches. The tasks are less similar than might at first be assumed. And the difference between success and failure may hinge less on the ability to execute, and on the frequency of doing so. As you say, one bad pitch can take a while to counteract in the stats sheet, but those need to be infrequent in the first place, for the pitchers you hope to be difference-makers.
  11. ashbury
    Though we never thought that we could lose, there's no regret. If I had to do the same again, I would, my friend,. Fernando!
  12. ashbury
    Thinking of this Simpsons guy?
  13. ashbury
    That's a remarkably balanced outlook. Prepare for dissent from all sides.
  14. ashbury
    That's the idea. The homer was exciting, but three runs didn't make the win count more. Said another way, the value of something may be unrelated to the probability of it happening. And the value of the same event may differ based on the situation. There is some value in getting the job done then and there, rather than say a walk or a scratch single that leaves it to the next guy, and the guy after that if he fails, which WPA probably captures only in part, but that's getting pretty esoteric.
  15. ashbury
    Didn't mean to dismiss Miranda's accomplishment. He himself said in his interview that the pitcher hung one. The slo-mo was a thing of beauty to watch. I don't know Hader's arsenal to understand what he was trying to accomplish with a more successful version of the same pitch, but that one surely wasn't how the plan was drawn up.
  16. ashbury
    Disconcur. 8-year olds might be okay behind the plate with that assistance, but they haven't learned yet to hit the curveball.
  17. ashbury
    I forgot to set my watch. Thanks for the annual Jaime Garcia trade deadline article.
  18. ashbury
    Getting men on is a positive for WPA; failing to drive them in and making outs in the process are a negative. But teamwise it all balances out, just as though they'd gone down one-two-three. You can only score 0 runs once per inning. WPA won't satisfy anyone's lust for vengeance, I'm afraid.
  19. ashbury
    I doubt if Hader makes many pitches, over the course of a season, fatter than that one to Miranda .
  20. ashbury
    No-brainer if he falls.
  21. ashbury
    If I'm reading this thread right, here's the consensus: Convert Wallner To Umpire Who's with me?
  22. ashbury
    It was a kindness to the readership, though. I LOLed at least.
  23. ashbury
    But all things in moderation, amirite?
  24. ashbury
    Concur, which is why I was a little surprised you even went to 30.
  25. ashbury
    Made me look. In this most recent string of success, in 10 games his ERA of 0.00 is built on an OPS-against of .493. Surely that's not a level of performance that is sustainable; but I note that his batting average on balls in play is a very conventional .303 which does not by itself suggest a sequence of nothing but at'em balls.
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