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Everything posted by ashbury
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Would Bringing Back Kyle Gibson Makes Sense?
ashbury replied to Sherry Cerny's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That was my thought too, when I read the article. The article didn't make a case why Philly would be looking to move a veteran starting pitcher. They have used a recent 17-6 run to claw back into the fringes of the post-season picture. And they have a good rotation but not great and I can't see them wanting to weaken it, nor is it clear to me (I am not versed in their system) that they have any SP prospects whatsoever knocking on the door and currently being wasted. So I looked at their season stats and their players and then checked MLBTR, and the first relevant article I found states that they would be looking for relief help in return. Gibson for Pagan and Duffey? Yeah, don't think so either. We don't match up in the slightest.- 28 replies
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- kyle gibson
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A. Pena and D. Pena are both from Venezuela, which I suppose has islands. Their listed locales are 450 miles apart, though they could be "distant" cousins.
- 11 replies
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- matt wallner
- cade povich
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The offense got 3 base hits, and posters are analyzing how the manager screwed up this game by failing to thread some imaginary needle. /edit - lol, serves me right for not reading the thread all the way through this time - jmlease1 said the same. I have no way of quantifying this, but my impression is emerging that this team's batters are adept at hitting "mistake" pitches, which is of course true to a degree for all batters who've reached the majors, but have tilted their approach at the plate so much to exploiting this that they are helpless when the pitcher gives them a series of offerings that demonstrate command and good control. Thus, the feast-or-famine, depending on whether the opposing pitcher is "on" that night. And the string of post-season failures, where they meet the teams with pitchers much less likely to have "off" nights. Then again, we see certain of our hitters swing through center-cut fastballs repeatedly. So my theory is still in a formative stage. But there is a qualitative difference between our squad and the better teams, regardless of the overall averages seen on the stat pages that say ours is an above-average hitting team.
- 53 replies
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- dylan bundy
- tyler duffey
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Around the AL Central (6/24): A Shakeup at the Top
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Don't people advocate to trade prospects for established veterans, because a lot of prospects wash out? We may think there are sure things, but there really aren't. There are only better and worser wagers.- 10 replies
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- alex kirilloff
- javier baez
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That does require a 40-man move. Godoy goes in return for whatever trade package? Or just DFA I suppose. Either way, no likelihood of keeping 4 catchers on the roster, in this scenario. So, "what was your favorite José Godoy moment?"
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Around the AL Central (6/24): A Shakeup at the Top
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I am filled with rage that others are not taking the past span of games as calmly as I am!- 10 replies
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- alex kirilloff
- javier baez
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I’m Incredibly Bored of Position Players Pitching
ashbury commented on Vanimal46's blog entry in Minnesota Twins Whine Line
Check out game 4 of the 1954 or 1955 World Series. Al Lopez and Casey Stengel. I tell ya. -
If Gio could be traded for pitching, the Yankees like any team would surely have done so. Playing a video game such as OOTP, I'll trade Gio for whatever small value I can get, preferably in some kind of package trade for a stud (because the AI in games always makes other GMs vulnerable to that kind of offer). In the real world, though, I don't believe Gio would be a part of a trade for Montas or Castillo, and I'm not even sure you can get a stud reliever for him. And then there's the PR hit for trading away a player that fans seem to like, in the middle of a winning season. For this season I think we just muddle through with Miranda and get him as many ABs as possible in the environment.
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So the two one-run losses were due to nothing but their own ineptitude and lack of heart, but the win was luck. Fun.
- 48 replies
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- devin smeltzer
- nick gordon
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Royce Lewis Had ACL Surgery With a Twist
ashbury replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
(Psst, now, you wanna feel real old? This movie turns 50 years old in a couple of years.) -
What Happened to Jose Berrios?
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Has he? I have no idea about the eye-test, but in Martin's statistical splits June so far has been much more worser than either April or May.- 25 replies
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- austin martin
- simeon woods richardson
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I am intrigued by Evan Sisk putting up good numbers at AA and am perplexed that he hasn't been bumped to AAA before now, in preference say to Strotman who might benefit from AA tutelage (or might be a lost cause). At this point I'd roll the dice and jump Sisk up to the majors the next time they decide to open a 40-man spot - which IMO could and should be soon. He's the only one that I feel that way about, though. The Vaunted Pitching Pipeline (tm) is not gushing for the major league squad as yet - the past couple of years have dribbled out just enough to replenish a below-average pool of talent, not to sustain a winning roster, to speak nothing of making up for lost time. What we have at AAA is not blowing away even the AAA batters, and at AA guys like Varland, SWR and Canterino would IMO get their brains beat out if thrown into the major leagues right now.
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The Twins Could Pay Byron Buxton, Again
ashbury replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If only Buxton and the team had access to a doctor who could take a look, as was done for you. He could probably get similar results. -
Ryan Jeffers is Secretly Turning a Corner
ashbury replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
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4 Veteran Players the Twins Can Trade
ashbury replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Fixed that, because you aren't getting anything in return by trade for any of these players, unfortunately.- 62 replies
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- gio urshela
- carlos correa
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And yet, stats are available to anyone with an internet connection. I know you know how to look them up, but let me provide a couple of quick links, to the Twins season and to MLB as a whole: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2022#all_bases https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2022#all_bases Toward the middle of the "Bases Occupied" table, there is a line for 3rd base occupied and fewer than 2 outs, exactly the situation you are thinking about. Our 2022 Twins are batting .402 (!) in 107 PA in that situation. Sac flies numbered 18 (17%). OPS total is a robust 1.008, with 75 RBI (.70 per opportunity). Compare those numbers to MLB-wide: .316 BA in 3699 PA. 528 sac flies (14%). 834 OPS and 2329 RBI (.63 per). In comparison to other teams (click on the "on 3rd, <2 out" link itself), we're 3rd in the majors in BA, 6th in On Base Percentage (which arguably means we're not taking many walks leaving that runner at 3rd), 3rd in slugging and 4th in OPS. In terms of super-clutchy-magicalness with a man on third, our guys stack up very well. But this line of the table does reveal a problem (IMHO): we are 22nd in plate appearances, in those situations. Those 107 opportunities with a man on third do not reflect a good offense getting men on base for the boppers to drive in. There are 8 teams with over 140, with Boston leading everyone with 156. Shouldn't be a surprise, if you look at the top of this Bases Occupied table. We're batting .230 with the bases empty. With runners, it's .279. League wide it's .232 and .254 respectively. So we're just middle of the pack, not above average, at getting men on. And somehow, based on the number of men-on-third opportunities, we seem to be streaky in that way. The bases start empty, and too often they stay empty. We give opposing pitchers way too many comfortable (and probably clean) innings. Feast or famine, but we already knew that.
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Week in Review: Lack of Consistency
ashbury replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Slow starter? For his career, August and September both have been his worst months. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=correca01&year=Career&t=b#all_month It's true that June overall comes out best, but his Aprils taken together have been all-star level for a SS. If we're challenging for a playoff spot, let's hope this trend doesn't play out. (His actual post-season numbers for his career look just fine.)- 12 replies
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- carlos correa
- luis arraez
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Depends on whether you believe the difference in 0 runs and 1 run is important.
- 30 replies
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- dylan bundy
- ryan jeffers
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Ryan Jeffers is Secretly Turning a Corner
ashbury replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins are a respectable 38-29 and that's all that matters. It's a team sport. / I mean, analytics is all about breaking things down to understand them better. If you dislike analytics, why go for half measures? -
"How do you like my data entry error value now?"
- 31 replies
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- matt wallner
- christian encarnacion strand
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I keep wanting to like Fangraphs, but when their take differs from someone else's and I then look deeper I usually like the someone else's. In this case the only "deeper" I am doing is look at seasonal results since the trade.
- 31 replies
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- matt wallner
- christian encarnacion strand
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